Tropical Storm #Rafael / Tropical Depression #Patty - October 13 2012

**Bermuda should monitor Rafael closely.**

TD Patty: As mentioned in previous posts Patty is expected to become a remnant low at some time today. Patty has winds of 35 mph and is located about 280 miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas 25.5North 71.9West with a central pressure of 1008 mb. Currently Patty is stationary. Movement to the west-southwest is anticipated which should continue until she dissipates. 'No Watches or Warnings in effect'.

TS Rafael: Rafael is the 17th named system of the 2012 hurricane season. Currently located about 165 miles south-southeast of St. Croix in the Virgin Islands 15.5North 63.9West with winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1006 mb, Rafael is moving at about 9 mph toward the northwest. A turn toward the north-northwest is anticipated later today and this will bring the center of Rafael close or over the Virgin Islands. During this time some strengthening is expected. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles at this time to the southeast side of the center. Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands and are possible around Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques tonight, and Sunday October 14. **Bermuda should monitor Rafael closely.**

Watches and Warnings:

* A Tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Kits, Nevis, Antigua, Montserrat, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Guadeloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante, and Martinique.

* A tropical Storm 'Watch' is in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Tropical Depression Seven #TD7 / Invest #93L - August 10 2012

Tropical Depression Seven [TD7] looking a little better organized at this time on satellite imagery. Currently TD7 is located about 1245 Miles east of the Windward Islands at 13.7 North 49.5 West. TD7 has winds of 35 MPH is moving West at a fast clip of 23 MPH and has a central pressure of 1009 MB or 29.80 inches. It is uncertain if TD7 will be able to maintain it's current structure at this time as it continues to move toward the Caribbean. There is a large swath of dry air to the north and ahead of this system with hints of some being pulled in. Remnants of what's left of Florence due north may also be contributing some wind shear in the area at this time. It seems the only thing TD7 has going for it at this time are warm sea surface temperatures. I'll keep an eye on TD7 for further development in the coming days.

######

Invest 93L is struggling at this time as it moves over cooler water and has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm at this time. While conditions at this time seem unfavorable for further development, I'll continue to keep an eye on this tropical wave.


Spaghetti Models for Tropical Depression Seven #TD7 and Invest #93L

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems

UPDATE - Invest 90L - February 5 2012

Update 8:38 AM 2/6/2012 - near ZERO 0% chance of becoming a Subtropical Storm.

via National Hurricane Center
REGARDLESS OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

+++++++

Original post Sunday, February 5, 2012 3:37 PM EST

Well look what popped up in February....

Designated Invest 90L at this time and situated between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba, Invest 90 is not expected to become a tropical storm, there exists a possibility for sub-tropical development. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring this area.

Latest placement has this system at 22.0N 86.0W with winds of 25 MPH and a central pressure of 1014 MB.

Looking at this time to be more of a rainmaker for southwest Florida than anything else. There may be some rough seas around the area also. Here's a look at the Radar out of Key West Florida...

You can check out a loop of Invest 90l here - Hurricane IR Loop - http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

While this may be an early start to the tropical season and somewhat unusual, there has been development this early in this area before; 1952 Groundhog Day tropical storm

Hurricane Rina forecast to be Major Hurricane

From a system yet to fully develop this past Friday, to a Hurricane today.

Rina intensified rather quickly in the warm waters of the Caribbean. At 5 PM EDT on Sunday she was a mere Tropical Depression. Later Sunday night at 11 PM EDT Rina became a Tropical Storm with max sustained winds of 40 MPH. 15 hours later on Monday Rina becomes a Hurricane with max sustained winds of 75 MPH as of 2 PM EDT.

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 PM EDT Monday October 24 2011:

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

Check the Tropical Weather Page for Graphics, Computer Models, and more information.

Tropics still active - Caribbean Invest 96 - October 21 2011

Been fairly quite for the most part as far as any major tropical systems / storms. We've had a couple disturbances form in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean in the past month and a half move up into the southeast of the U.S., a low pressure system that moved through southeast Georgia and Tropical Storm Lee which spawned some severe weather and Tornadoes in the area.

The Atlantic should remain relatively quite but a system forming is not out of the question. This time of year towards the end of hurricane season, the main focus for tropical development is in the Caribbean where the waters are still quite warm. Computer models want to develop this system. Steering patterns seem to indicate a track northwest to north-northwest the next few days at a slow pace. The longer this stays out over open waters the better the chances for further development. I'll keep my eye on this invest and see if it develops into something in the coming days.

Here are a couple computer model graphics showing were it might go, should it develop.

And the latest on this via the National Hurricane Center

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Should this system develop, I'll have up dated and up to date information on the Tropical Weather Page.