Rain Sleet and Snow coming to Alabama and Georgia

A chance for wintery weather in the deep south will be coming in Thursday night into Friday morning. Get your cameras ready haha.

Best area for accumulation will be in the norther areas of Alabama and Georgia. There is likely to be no accumulation except on elevated and grassy areas in the central areas of both states as surface temperatures will be to warm.

In areas it will begin as a rain sleet mix and may change to snow briefly. In others areas it may begin as a sleet snow mix and change to all snow. Best time of this, from west to east will be between 3 AM and 10 Am Friday morning.

#Snow Georgia / Alabama Saturday February 16 2013 #gawx #alwx

As I have been mentioning most of this week on my Facebook page [ www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather ], there may be snow in the area. This morning my thinking has not changed. In FACT .. the National Weather Service in Peachtree city is now coming on board toward my thinking from past days. They at this time, 5 AM EST Friday February 15 2013 mention a bullseye of Snow of OVER 1 inch, south of Columbus by 1 PM EST Saturday afternoon. They also say less than 1 inch for areas between Atlanta and Columbus around 10 AM EST Saturday Morning. Timing and placement of this is not exact, so I will be monitoring things to narrow it down and posting it on Facebook and tweeting [ twitter.com/cataulagawx ] it when it snows at my location.. Right now I would say between 6 AM and 12 PM Saturday.

As mentioned above and from looking at data, there is indeed a sweet spot or bullseye in central Georgia. Columbus looks to get around 1 inch, and Macon about 2 inches if numerical data from the NAM-06z run is correct.




Athens Georgia should get under 1 inch and Atlanta just over a Tenth of an inch. There isn't much to go around but there could be more or less depending on how things set up and where. It remains to be seen if snow will accumulate on the ground, it will on cars and other surfaces.

Here's a few images showing 06z NAM profiles and Skew-t's for Columbus, Macon, Athens and Atlanta Georgia.










I first mentiond this on Facebook, on February 8 2013 and on this blog February 11 2013 here Possible Snow for Georgia and Alabama February 16/17

Possible #Snow for #Georgia and #Alabama February 16/17 - #gawx #alwx

At this time models show the potential yet again for snow in the south. Looking at things, this is the best I've seen since winter began. Depending on where the Low pressure develops and where it tracks will have a lot to say in this. With that said, this is not a forecast yet, but only an outlook. 'Right now' it looks like central Alabama and Georgia will see more in the way of snow than areas to the north. Totals range from a dusting to a Half inch in northern areas to an Inch and a half for central areas. Even as far south as Valdosta GA could see about an inch and Mobile Al seeing a dusting.

Here is one of the tools I use to help me figure out what is going on with the weather, whether it be severe storms or winter weather. As simply as I can explain, here's what I see for winter weather this weekend that I mentioned last week. For those that don't care to read all this, at this time models are back on track showing snow in and around our area this coming weekend February 16/17.

SOUNDING/SKEW-T

Red Shows Temperature
Green Shows dewpoint
Yellow shows area of Snow Growth
Blue shows Icing

The scale across the bottom is the temperature scale in Celsius. The 0 [zero] is 32F or freezing. What all this shows is, If there were moisture available during the time shown, in this case around 6 PM Saturday, it would likely fall as Snow. Models do show moisture being available during this time, at this time.

So, what the current GFS sounding is showing is Rain beginning around 12 PM Saturday, changing to Snow around 6 PM Saturday and continuing until about 9 PM. Total accumulation for the local area at this time is about 1 and a half inches at a 10 to 1 ratio , which means for every inch of liquid water, there would be 10 inches of snow. So there's not much here, but hopefully enough to give us a little snow.

Nor'easter will be No Sandy - November 4 2012

The Nor'easter expected to impact areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this week will be No Sandy. However due to earlier damage caused by Hurricane Sandy in these areas this storm will have a greater impact.

With that said, we can sill expect strong to gusty winds in areas from 40 to 50 mph which will hamper repair of downed power lines. Winds will also be capable of bringing down tress and branches already weakened from Sandy.

'Minor to Moderate coastal flooding' with the high tide around Midday Wednesday looking like the best time for storm surge. With many area beaches and coastal property already having erosion, it is likely this storm will add to this.

'Rain amounts' of up to 4 inches can be expected at this time in and around the areas closer to the coast with lesser amounts inland. Due to flooded areas which at this time have not receded any extra water will cause them to rise, and may also cause areas to flood again.

'Snow will also be a concern' on the backside of the counter clockwise flow around the storm. Areas likely to see snow at this time are inland in PA, NJ and NY maybe even as far south as VA; these areas 'could' see 1 to 4 inches maybe more. I think the New England area 'could' see 8 to 15 inches depending on storm path. Uncertainty remains at this time in this as we are still days away form this storm impacting the northeast and the final path is unknown, whether it will hug the coast or be farther away.


Projected Path of Nor'easter Tuesday November 6 thru Friday November 9 2012

Forecast Rain amounts Nov 4 thru Nov 9

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Hurricane #Sandy - #Wind #StormSurge #Rain #Snow - 8:00 AM EDT 10/29/12

[Cross posted from Foot’s Forecast: The Tropical Zone, time is short, info current as of 8 AM EDT]

Good morning folks. We hope you are as prepared as you can be. If not, you should be finalizing your preparations as time is running out for you to do so. Heed all warnings and advisories issued by your local weather service and media outlets. Sandy is now expected to be a 'strong Category 1 Hurricane with winds of 90 mph at landfall'. At this time we have determined Sandy [the center] will make landfall in the area of northern Delaware and Southern New Jersey, in the Delaware Bay early Tuesday morning. When Sandy goes Post-Tropical later today, the Foot's Forecast: Severe Storm Center will be issuing updates and they will be shared with Foot’s Forecast: The Tropical Zone.

Currently - Winds: 85 mph | Pressure 946 mb | Location: 36.8N 71.1W (310 miles South-southeast of New York City New York and 265 miles Southeast of Atlantic City New Jersey) | Moving North-Northwest at 20 mph. Currently Tropical storm force winds extend out 485 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. Sandy will be felt long before the center makes landfall. A tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect from Cape Fear to duck North Carolina, Pamlico / Albemarle sounds and Bermuda.

Hurricane force winds are expected between Chincoteague Virgina and Chatam Massachusetts including the Tidal Potomas from Cobb Island to Smith Point, the Middle and Upper Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, The coasts of the Northern Delmarva Peninsula, New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Tropical storm Force winds are expected North of Chatam to the Merrimack River Massachusetts, the Lower Chesapeake Bay, South of Chincoteague to Duck North Carolina.

*Threats*

Winds in and around the area 'could be stronger' or weaker. It all depends on how strong Sandy Gets.: Winds as strong as but not limited to 'Hurricane Force [74 mph to 95 mph / Category 1]' strength will reach the Mid-Atlantic states including New York City and Long Island 'later today'. Elevated Winds will likely be 'Stronger' than those near ground level. These stronger winds will affect the 'upper floors of high rise buildings'. Stay away from the windows if you live on upper floors. Winds may also be stronger due to the funneling effect caused by buildings and other structures. Tropical Storm force winds [39 mph to 73 mph] and or Gale force Winds [39 mph to 54 mph] are already being felt from North Carolina 'northward' to Long Island. These winds are expected to spread to other areas of the Mid-Atlantic coast, New York City and Southern New England later this morning and today.

Storm Surge measured 'above ground' - It 'could be more' or less. It all depends on the timing [high tide/low tide] and how strong Sandy Gets. :
Long Island Sound / Paritan Bay / New York Harbor - 6 to 11 Feet
Fron Ocean City Maryland to the Connecticut / Rhode Island Border - 4 to 8 Feet
North Carolina North of Surf City including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds - 4 to 6 Feet
Connecticut / Rhode Island Border to the South Shore of Cape Cod including Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay - 3 to 6 Feet
Southeast Virginia and Delmarva including the Lower Chesapeake Bay - 2 to 4 Feet
Cape Cod to the Massachusetts / New Hampshire border including Cap Cod Bay - 2 to 4 Feet
Upper and Middle Chesapeake Bay - 1 to 3 Feet
Massachusetts / New Hampshire border to the United States / Canadian Border - 1 to 3 Feet

Rainfall from the coast further inland will likely cause flooding in low areas and flash flooding in other areas. Be aware of this as there is low confidence in forecasting 'flash floods'.: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches expected in and around Northeastern North Carolina with isolated amounts of 8 inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected in the Mid-Atlantic States and the Delmarva Peninsula with isolated amounts of 12 inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected in the Southern Tier of New York State Northeastward through New England with isolated amounts of 5 inches possible.

Snowfall: Areas of Eastern West Virginia , Western Virginia, Western North Carolina, Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Tennessee are currently under a Blizzard Warning and or Winter Storm Warning. In the 'blizzard warned areas' Heavy snow with white-out conditions can be expected with deep drifts and dangerous wind chill likely. In the 'winter storm warned areas' Heavy wet snow, heavy freezing rain and or heavy sleet can be expected.
Snow amounts expected range from '2 to 3 Feet' in the mountains of West Virginia with locally higher amounts possible 'today through Wednesday'. Snow amounts expected range from '1 to 2 Feet' in the mountains of Southwestern Virginia to the Kentucky Border and '12 to 18 inches' in the mountains near the North Carolina / Tennessee border and in the mountains of Western Maryland.


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 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Tropical Storm #Sandy .. What's in a name ?

Don't focus on what Sandy will be called in days ahead. Whether a Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Post tropical or extra tropical. She's going to cause problems for many regardless of her name and characteristics.

Depending on the exact track Sandy takes along the east coast, 'at this time' areas in North Carolina Today and spreading northward along the Mid Atlantic coast Tonight through Monday can expect rainfall of 1-4 inches with higher totals approaching 8 inches possible in some areas closer to the coast. Minor coastal flooding is expected in low lying areas with some beach erosion due to high surf up to 6 or 7 feet and Gusty winds between 30-40 mph with gusts approaching 60-70 mph possible. Flooding and loss of electricity is also possible inland.

At this time here's what you can expect 'before and during landfall' and 'inland after landfall' .. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm force winds for many hours possibly longer. Heavy rains of 8 to 12 inches along the coast and inland causing flooding issues for many. Coastal flooding and erosion for hours due to hurricane/tropical storm force winds and 'tidal surge'. Power outages widespread, Trees down, Roads closed due to debris / flooding and wash out, Airports and other transportation halted. Basic services shut down for days, a week or longer in some areas. To add to all that as if that's not enough, major snowfall measured in 'Feet' is likely for some areas west of the system in areas of Western Virginia, West Virginia, Southwest Pennsylvania. In surrounding areas of Ohio, Northeast Kentucky back into Indiana snowfall is likely as well as to the north of the system in areas of Southern New York State, East and Northeastern areas of Pennsylvania. There may be some icing issues too.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available


Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone as this storm unfolds. You can head over to Foot's Forecast [Website] for more insight and see what goes into understanding a storm like this.

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Update 3 - Winter precipitation Alabama / Georgia - Monday / Tuesday 2/13-2/14/2012

Update #3 FINAL - 6:15 AM 2/14/2012

Not to gloat but .. I was correct. Sleet did make it to the local area.

Here at the homestead Moderate Sleet began 11:39 PM EST 2/13 – 12AM EST 2/14 Sleet mixed with rain – 3:37 AM EST 2/14 Heavy Sleet mixed with rain – 3:50 AM EST 2/14 Rain.

There where many reports from Alabama and Georgia. Here are some of the areas around the local area, others can be viewed below in earlier reports below.

Salem Al
LaGrange Ga
Auburn Al
Manchester Ga
Near Exit 64 off I-85 in Alabama
Cataula Ga
Columbus GA - water works on River Rd
Ladonia / Whiterock Al
Cataula Ga - HWY 315 near Mulberry creek elementary school
Pine Mountain Valley GA
Phenix City Al
Waverly Hall GA

There was no accumulation.

**********

Update #2 - 10:00 PM 2/13/2012

Sleet and rain/sleet mix being reported across many areas of Alabama. Latest reports via Twitter: Heavy Sleet in Gadsen and Green Hill also reports from Anniston, Pratville, Millbrook, McCallan, Jacksonville, Bagley, Fyffe, Talladega, Ashville and Pelham as well as other areas. Temps are falling slowly and dew points are rising. Currently here at the homestead 37.7°F @ 10:00 PM EST ... Here's a radar shot, the yellow areas are likely Sleet - rain/ sleet mix.

Radar as of 9:53 PM EST 02/13/2012. Heavier pockets of sleet yellow and reds.

Via NWS Birmingham Al

The area continues to head east. See below for earlier info. and predictions.

**********

Update #1 - 9:15 AM 2/13/2012

Updated to add a couple profile soundings for Columbus Georgia.
Not much change at this time from forecasting offices.

This is the GFS3 Skew-t showing IP [ Ice Pellets / Sleet ] At 12:00 AM EST Tuesday morning for Columbus.

This is the GFS3 Skew-t showing ZR [ Freezing Rain ] At 3:00 AM EST Tuesday morning for Columbus.

The first sounding above is plausible showing Ice Pellets / Sleet. The second one is less so showing the Freezing Rain as surface temperatures are above freezing, so this may be some Sleet mixed with rain. The time frame for this would be from 12:00 AM EST to 3:00 AM EST Tuesday morning, at this time.

I'm still thinking areas to the north of Columbus will see the best chance of seeing any winter precipitation. Farther north = better chances. I do not expect any of this to accumulate locally.

**********

Original Post at 1:07 AM 2/13/2012

This will be an overnight event for the local area. Monday night thru Tuesday morning.

Just some thoughts about what may happen.

Here are the most recent graphics from the National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia and the National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama, issued Sunday afternoon.

My thinking on this .... After going over current data as of 12:20 AM 2/13/2012, I think the local area will see some sleet. I think at times such as the onset of the event, some of this may be heavy and not mixed with rain. I do not expected any accumulation on roads or even grassy areas. There may be some accumulation on cars and other surfaces for a short period. I do not expect any of this to cause any problems.

I think the farther north you go, the best chances of accumulation on grass and elevated surfaces. The northern most counties in my coverage area, Troup and Meriwether counties will see the best chance of Snow. While this will become mixed with rain and sleet, I am expecting mostly snow at the beginning of the event. South of there, moderate sleet at the beginning then mixing with rain.

This is my coverage area ..

There are a few if's for this event.... If the rate of sleet or snow is high, it may overcome surface temperatures and allow some accumulation. This would occur in the northern most counties. If the warm air does not enter the picture until late in the event, there may be more accumulation possible then what is currently forecast, which at this time is 0% in the local area south of Troup and Meriwether counties in Georgia and farther north in Alabama.

Towards the end, it will be all rain in the local area.

Here's a look at liquid amounts for the event. The local area is within the 0.50 to 0.75 inch zone.

P.S.- I am not a professional meteorologist ;)

Alabama Hail January 7 2012 - Pictures

Strong storms rolled through parts of Northern Alabama on January 7 2012 dropping heavy amounts of hail. Enough hail to cover the ground making it look like a January snow. All images courtesy James Spann

Hail covering the ground in the Dallas-Selfville community of southern Blount County northeast of Birmingham 01-07-2012

Hail from the stronger storms over North Alabama 01-07-2012

Hail covering Alabama Highway 79 in north Jefferson County near Trafford 01-07-2012

Roads are hail covered in Cleveland Alabama Blount County 01-07-2012

Radar Screen Shot 2012-01-07 at 356 PM CST

Update 1 - Turning Colder, Chance of ....

Update 10:09 AM 12/31/2011 - The cold will be here, but it doesn't look like the moisture will. No snow for the area at this time on this run.

+++++++

Original post 12/29/2011

Next week it will turn colder, some of the coldest temps we have seen yet this winter season in our local area in Georgia and Alabama, and the deep south in general for that matter. For the past week I, as well as others including our local meteorologist have been watching the computer models. The models have been swinging as they do, still not yet able to determine exactly what the weather the coming week will bring. Over the past day or so, the models are coming into better agreement with each other as to the placement and amount of cold air that will infiltrate the deep south.

Just as we have seen in the recent past with frontal passages, shortwaves in varying strength have followed them bringing unsettled weather to the area. While this still appears to be the case in the short term during the coming pattern change, the quantity of shortwaves will lesson. One such SW will be moving through the area next week, mid week. The exact time is still in question as earlier models runs had one pushing through the weekend of January 7-8 2012, and now as early as the 5th or 6th of the coming week. A couple of the latest models runs even show a low pressure / closed low forming. On one hand it shows a weak low forming in the gulf of Mexico, and on the other a strong closed low forming off the east coast. I might add that model runs early on showed this happening, they backed off, and now it's back, a good sign.

So what does this all mean for us?

It means there is the possibility as of this posting for the local area to some wintery precipitation in the coming week. How much, what type and to what extent is still up in the air. Right now it looks like a dusting to an inch if it is snow. It may be just plain ol rain. It may not happen at all. There is a slightly better chance of it happening than not at this time. Why do I say that ?? Mainly because of what I read earlier from the National Weather Service in their area forecast diccussion. One from the NWS in Peachtree City, GA., and the other from the NWS in Tallahassee, Fl..

AFD from NWS Peachtree City, GA. - ISSUED 620 AM EST THU DEC 29 2011: THE GFS BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. WILL THEREFORE ADD CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY TO THE CWA AND KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY.

AFD from NWS Tallahassee, Fl. - 140 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2011: As the trough lifts away, temps will moderate somewhat on Wednesday. However, another potent short wave is progged to dive southeastward across the area on Thursday. We will show showers with this feature for now. However, it is not out of the question that we will be dealing with non-liquid precipitation with this system. Stay tuned.

This event is still a week out and will likely change from model run to run. I'll know more in a few days, and will post an update on Monday or Tuesday of the coming week.

North Georgia / Alabama winter precipation November 28-29 2011

Final Update: 10:00 PM 11/30/2011

The event was much as I anticipated.

Locally, reports of rain snow mix, snow showers in areas of north Harris county. Snow in north Georgia and Alabama 1-2 inches and less.

End
____________

Update: 9:00 AM EST 11/27/2011

I'm not going to change anything from previous [Below] at this time. Still looking at a chance of sleet mixing in with rain at times or a snow flurry or two in the local area.

Best chance of seeing any winter precipitation, early Tuesday.

Things could change between now and Tuesday and likely will with such a dynamic system as this. Will we get a surprise ?

End
____________

An interesting set up coming this week. I toyed with this over on my Facebook page earlier this week.

Northern Alabama and Northern Georgia may see some accumulating winter precipitation.

Pretty sure from looking at models, any precipitation that falls in central Georgia Saturday into Sunday will be liquid. Models vary Late Sunday night into Monday and further into the coming week.

Should the slower and deepening model solutions come into play, we may be looking at some frozen type of precipitation in the northern tiers of Alabama and Georgia Monday night, and with enough wrap around moisture from the cut off low which is expected to form may see wintery precipitation into Tuesday morning.

I'm not looking for anything to fall in the frozen category in the local area. Should the cut off low position itself further south, slow to a crawl and allow the colder air further south to interact with abundant moisture which is expected, there is a slim chance of seeing some flurries or sleet in the local area. If anything frozen does fall locally accumulation is not expected as ground temperatures are still quite warm. This all depends on the specific track of the low in question.

On a wetter note: We will be picking up some much needed rain if nothing else. Winter doesn't officially begin until December 22. The first week of December looks interesting as well.

I'll have an update Saturday or Sunday at the latest.

Here's some model runs in no particular order:

18zgfs

15zsref

18znam

12zeuro

Cataula Winter Forecast 2011-2012

My thinking is ... this winter will be much like last year. We will have our colder times just as the last couple of years. When that will occur is anyone's guess. Usually cant forecast for something like that until a couple weeks ahead. It's beginning to be normal winter weather around here, colder at times than what many of us are used to.

I still think, and am looking for a wrench to be thrown into the mix this year. I previously had forecast / predicted for this winter season at least one good snow event down here of at least 6 inches. That's my story and I'm sticken to it. My thinking is we're over due for a good snow event, the last being February 12 2010. I think we'll see our chances of icy wintery mix type scenarios at least 2-3 times as well, just like last winter 2010-2011.

I'm hoping this doesn't mean we're in for another highly active severe spring season like we had this year, 2011.

A couple links that may interest you:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

Farmers' Almanac - 2012 Farmers' Almanac Winter Outlook


Memorable winter weather events in Cataula Georgia :

Sleet and Freezing Rain January 10 2011 : Ice on the muscadine vine looking towards the back 40. Picture taken around 4 PM EST

White Christmas in Cataula Georgia December 25 2010 : It came late, starting around 7:30 pm and ending by 9:30 pm. We ended with anywhere from a quarter to a half inch of snow. Side note: My sister got to see a white Christmas :) She passed away in February 2011 :(

Snow event February 12 2010 : The snow didn't amount to as much as I had forecast, 5-8 inches, or hoped in my area. We did end up with right at 4 inches at the homestead.

Snow event March 1 2009 : At 5:11 pm March 1,2009 snow in the yard right at 5 and three quarter inches. Forecast snow amounts were for 1-3 inches.

 

March 8 2008 : Not much, but enough to get us all excited. Others would call it Flurries. We call it SNOWWWWWWWWW!

Winter Storm Observations from West Central Georgia Feb. 9-10 2011

Cross posting from a couple weather related message boards

Nothing .. nada .. zilch .. zero .. thats how much snow accumulated here at the homestead in west central GA. I don't feel bad about my forecast, I didn't end up with what the pro's thought either. There is a light coating on frozen mix on elevated surfaces but none on the road or grass.

Here are some totals from around the state of Georgia,

Georgia Snow February 9-10 2011 - call map

Update #2 - 8:17 AM ET 2/9/2011
Scroll down for previous updates

Just a quick update ... I wont be changing anything, not even my call map [ snow prediction map ] seen below in the original post. I think it is a pretty good representation of what will go down. If I were to change anything, it would be for the northern most part of Georgia. I would bump up the snow potential just a tad to around 1.5 to 2 inches of accumulation. Still .. I think that will be pushing it as I don't think the moisture will be available that far north. One other thing I might change .. there may be more freezing rain / sleet in the southern counties than expected. Probably not enough to cause a problem though.

Here is a graph showing the current Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories in my general area. Like other weather events, I find it funny / strange how the weather stops at the Alabama / Georgia state line.

I will mention that the system will move through quicker than I had anticipated. This could change. There are also some difference between models as to the liquid to snow amounts. My forecast is based off of a 10:1 ratio. That being for 1 inch of rain 10 inches of snow. I have viewed some of these ratios as high as 20:1.

It is now down to a now-cast as to what will happen. At this time models pretty much become useless. Some of the short-range models still provide a little insight, but radar is now your friend.

My next update will come as the storm enters the area sometime this evening or late tonight. I will post some observations form my area. That is of course unless something really wild happens like a Blizzard Warning or a Tornado. Maybe even some Thundersnow.

_________________________________

Update #1 - 7:53 PM ET 2/8/2011
Scroll down for previous updates

Well .. it appears the winter storm system is materializing as I had thought it would, mentioned in my first post below. Everything is coming into place for what I believe to be more snow than the local and even the national mets are calling for at this time, but likely what I showed, also in my first post. Here is what has happened since my previous post --

I was watching to see if the initializations are getting stronger, or if we see the 5400m heights at 500mb start appearing on the initializations. This will tell us if we have a significantly stronger system than modeled since none of the global models have this. And guess what; They are and did.


Here is the 500mb showing a 5460m height above our S/L. The system is getting stronger.

Here is the MSL[ Mean sea level ] pressure and surface wind chart. It shows our surface low at 998mb, and on top of that .. its a closed low. Which means it could get even stronger. As far as I could see early on, this wasn't supposed to happen. But I did have a suspicion from sampling many models and maps earlier.

Here is the latest projected track of the Low. It even shows a minimum pressure of 1002mb. It is supposed to become just a blob of LP at 1012 in about 12-16 hrs as it traverses the Gulf.

And for your viewing pleasure ... the 18z GFS at hour 36 showing precip/mean sea level/temp.
Notice the low at 1012mb and the 850mb 540 line, the blue line. Notice how far south it is. I tend to think that most areas north of it by 50 miles would have a surface temp right around freezing or below. Still .. the 540 line is usually a good indicator of where snow. ice or freezing rain will appear if moisture is available.

And at hour 48

And here is the 72 hour precip forecast total for this winter storm. Well .. for the part of it that will impact my area of Georgia.

Now you may see why I'm predicting more snow for middle GA than north GA. The temps are there and ample precip is available too. In my area if it all fell as snow at a 10 to 1 ratio, I'd be looking at 2.5 to 5 inches of snow. Hence my forecast of 1-3 inches seen below in my first call map, in my original post.

Thats it for now, and likely tonight. Check back tomorrow for updates as the storm approaches even closer. I hope this verifies but as stated before, forecasting snow in the deep south is a fine line. Things will change.

_________________________________

Original Post

I wont go into much detail. I will say though from what I'm seeing, which isn't what the professionals see, someone will be getting a surprise in the deep south. I personally think at this time from what models and maps I've looked at, combined with observations, the storm will track deeper, stronger and slower. I think central and southern GA will see more snow than the pro's forecast. Temps are trending colder. Now that I've jinxed this by posting what I think, I wont see anything in my area.

Heres what the pros [http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/]currently think-

Move everything farther south and you have my thoughts. I know, wishcasting for my backyard.

Things can and will change. Still 36 hours out.