Hurricane #Rafael - October 16 2012

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

As expected Rafael became a Hurricane yesterday at 6:45 PM AST with winds near 75 mph as reported by hurricane hunter aircraft. Rafael is the 17^th named storm of the 2012 hurricane season and the 9^th hurricane. The 2012 hurricane season ends on November 30^th so there's plenty of time for a few more storms.

Currently Rafael is a category 1 hurricane located about 195 miles south of Bermuda at 29.5North 64.4West with winds of 85 mph, heading rapidly at 23 mph toward the North-northeast with a central pressure of 969 mb. Hurricane force winds extend outward 35 miles and tropical storm force winds out 205 miles from the center. The center of Rafael will pass to the east of Bermuda late this evening with a turn toward the northeast along with an increase in forward speed later today or tomorrow. Rafael should begin to weaken due to strong wind shear upward of 40 kt and continue weakening as he moves into colder water becoming extratropical by Thursday.

Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches and tropical storm winds are expected across Bermuda this afternoon and evening. Life threatening surf and rip currents are anticipated along areas of Bermuda and may also impact areas along the U.S. east coast in the next couple of days.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Tropical Storm #Rafael - October 15 2012

Not a mutant ninja .. but likely to mutate into a Hurricane today. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Bermuda.

Rafael is the 17th named system of the 2012 hurricane season. Currently located about 645 miles to the South of Bermuda at 23.0North 65.7West with winds of 70 mph and a central pressure of 985 mb, Rafael is moving at about 9 mph toward the north-northwest. A turn toward the North is anticipated today or early tomorrow and a turn toward the northeast on Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles form the storms center at this time. Tropical storm force winds may begin to impact Bermuda tomorrow. The exact track of Rafael is uncertain at this time. We urge those on the island of Bermuda to monitor this storm closely in the coming days.

Hazards associated with Rafael at this time include additional heavy rains of 1 to 3 inches over areas of the Leeward Islands with possible storm totals up to 12 inches, which may cause 'flash floods and mudslides'. Also high surf is anticipated to affect Bermuda over the coming days causing rip current conditions which may endanger life.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available


TRMM Microwave Image shows the eye of Rafael wrapping up

Tropical Storm #Rafael / Tropical Depression #Patty - October 13 2012

**Bermuda should monitor Rafael closely.**

TD Patty: As mentioned in previous posts Patty is expected to become a remnant low at some time today. Patty has winds of 35 mph and is located about 280 miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas 25.5North 71.9West with a central pressure of 1008 mb. Currently Patty is stationary. Movement to the west-southwest is anticipated which should continue until she dissipates. 'No Watches or Warnings in effect'.

TS Rafael: Rafael is the 17th named system of the 2012 hurricane season. Currently located about 165 miles south-southeast of St. Croix in the Virgin Islands 15.5North 63.9West with winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1006 mb, Rafael is moving at about 9 mph toward the northwest. A turn toward the north-northwest is anticipated later today and this will bring the center of Rafael close or over the Virgin Islands. During this time some strengthening is expected. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles at this time to the southeast side of the center. Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands and are possible around Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques tonight, and Sunday October 14. **Bermuda should monitor Rafael closely.**

Watches and Warnings:

* A Tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Kits, Nevis, Antigua, Montserrat, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Guadeloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante, and Martinique.

* A tropical Storm 'Watch' is in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Tropical Storm #Nadine - 14th named storm of 2012 Hurricane Season - 9/11/12

Tropical Storm Nadine has formed in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and posses No threat to the U.S. or any land mass at this time. Forecast for Nadine take her in a similar path as what was Hurricane Michael which is now post tropical as is Leslie.

Currently [11:00 PM EDT 9/11/12] Nadine has winds of 40 mph and is moving West-Northwest at 15 mph with a central pressure of 1004 MB, and is located at 17.8 north 45.2 west or about 1735 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Nadine could become a hurricane in the next 2 days.

You can find all the information on this Storm including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Tropical Depression Nine forms [#TD9]; #TD10 on his tail ?

We now have Tropical Depression Nine in the Atlantic. It is still early and the forecast track remains uncertain at this time as to possible impacts on the U.S. mainland. We do know that TD Nine is headed for the Lesser Antillies and the Caribbean. We also know TD Nine is expected to strengthen and become Tropical Storm Isaac Today. Once passed the Lesser Antilles and in the Caribbean, it is expected Tropical Storm Isaac will become Hurricane Isaac sometime Thursday.

As of 8:00 AM EDT TD 9 has winds of 35 MPH and is headed West at 20 mph. Located at 15.1North 51.8West or about 645 miles East of Guadeloupe. TD 9 is expected to continue moving west for the next couple of days with a slight turn Northwestward there after.

Here's the latest computer model plot for what is Tropical Depression Nine at 8:00 Am EDT August 21, 2012. You can find all information on this System on the Tropical Weather Page. Information updated Automatically.

Hot on the heals of TD Nine is Invest 96L. As of 8:00 AM EDT this morning, this tropical wave has a 60% chance of further development. Will it become Tropical Depression Ten ? Will it become Tropical Storm Joyce ? Time will tell. I'm also watching 95L off the coast of Mexico in the Gulf. This system should meander for a few days before dissipating. I keep an eye on it just in case.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems


Here's the latest computer model for 96L as of 8:00 AM EDT August 12, 2012.

Here's something I Tweeted last night. Figured I would post it here for kicks.

I do wonder if #96L will become Isaac before #94L . If not I think Joyce will be riding the tail of Isaac soon. twitter.com/CataulaGaWX/st…

— Ed Quinn (@CataulaGaWX) August 21, 2012

Tropical Storm #Ernesto has his eye on the Yucatan Peninsula

Once again like yesterday morning Ernesto is showing a build up of convection around his core. Currently Ernesto is still headed toward the Yucatan Peninsula, located at 17.8 North 84.4 West and has sustained winds of 65 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West-Northwest at 13 MPH. The central Pressure is 989 MB or 29.20 inches. Ernesto is about 180 miles Northeast of Isla Roatan Honduras and 250 miles East of Belize City. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center mostly to the Northeast and East of the center.

Ernesto is still expected to become a Category 1 Hurricane during the day today before making his first landfall late tonight or early Wednesday morning on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula around Belize and Quintana Roo. At this time, the strength of Ernesto at landfall is still in question as well as the exact time of landfall. Land fall should occur as mentioned Late tonight Tuesday or during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Even if Ernesto does not become a Hurricane he will be a Strong Tropical Storm.

Once Ernesto makes landfall he is expected to continue moving across the Yucatan Peninsula weakening slightly and emerge in the Bay of Campeche sometime late Wednesday evening or night. The timing remains uncertain as well as Ernesto's strength once back over water due to his interaction with land.

Once back over water in the Bay of Campeche the possibility exists that Ernesto may regain some strength before making his second landfall on the east coast of Mexico likely between Tampico and Veracruz late Thursday night or early Friday morning. Again the timing on this is not set in stone as we have no idea what Ernesto will do, or how long he will remain over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.

 Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto


Ernesto WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS OF 8:00 AM EDT 8/7/2012

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

######

On a side note: I'm watching Invest 92L in the Western Atlantic around the Cape Verde Islands. At this time this Tropical Wave has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.

#Ernesto expected to make landfall in or around Belize / TD #Florence 8/06/2012

First and foremost Watches and Warnings...

INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS OF 8:00 AM EDT...

* A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS / NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

* A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

* A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...GRAND CAYMAN...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


Tropical Storm Ernesto no threat to the U.S.....Ernesto looking stronger on satellite at this hour with deep convection beginning to build around the center and on his eastern side. Currently Ernesto is located at 15.2 North 81.0 West about 145 Miles EAST of Cabo Gracias A Dios on the Honduras / Nicaragua border and has sustained winds of 50 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West at 12 MPH. The central Pressure is 1003 MB or 29.62 inches. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.

Ernesto is expected to slowly strengthen in the short term. In the long term over the next 36 to 48 hours Models show Ernesto 'approaching' Hurricane Strength and make a turn to the West-Northwest. Ernesto is 'still' expected to make landfall in or around Belize along the southern Yucatan. From there Ernesto will cross the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge in the Bay of Campeche and head toward Mexico. Timing and strength of Ernesto at landfall remain uncertain but feel the first landfall in or around Belize will occur in about 48 hours and a landfall in 'Central or South Mexico' in about 90 hours.

Here's the most recent Model Plot for Tropical Storm Ernesto

Florence NOW a Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression Florence continues to weaken at this hour and is expected to further weaken in the coming days becoming a remnant Low in the next few days. Currently Florence is located at 16.2 North 38.8 West about 1610 Miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands and has sustained winds of 35 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West at 12 MPH. The central Pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 inches. We'll keep an eye on her over the next few days.

Update 11:00 AM EDT - FLORENCE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...

LOCATION...16.4N 40.2W
ABOUT 1515 MI...2440 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

This will be the last Update on Florence.

Here's the most recent Model Plot for Tropical Depression Florence

Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.

 Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Depression Florence

Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Depression Six / Florida Disturbance 91L

UPDATE 7:48 AM 8/4/2012 Tropical Depression Six is NOW Tropical Storm Florence

Tropical Storm Ernesto

Ernesto continues his Westward track at this hour. As of 11 PM EDT Ernesto has winds of 50 MPH and is Moving West at 18 MPH with a Central Pressure of 1003 MB / 29.62 inches. The current position of Ernesto is 13.9 North 65.6 West for those plotting along.

At this time Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to Maintain his current track, forward speed and intensity for the next couple of days. On his current track Ernesto will move through the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea and approach Jamaica on Sunday. Interests in Jamaica should monitor Ernesto closely. A 'Tropical Storm Watch may be Issued' for areas of Jamaica on Saturday.

Forecast models show Ernesto entering the southeast Gulf of Mexico Monday or Tuesday possibly becoming a Weak Hurricane before making landfall or skirting the Yucatan Peninsula. 'Much remains uncertain at this time' if in fact Ernesto will maintain the westward track and intensity during this time and into the coming week. We urge all along the U.S. Gulf Coast to remain vigilant!

Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Storm Ernesto as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.

######

Tropical Depression SIX UPDATE 7:48 AM 8/4/2012 Tropical Depression Six is NOW Tropical Storm Florence

Farther out in the Atlantic offshore of Africa about 240 Miles West Southwest of the Southern most Cape Verde Islands we have newly developed 'Tropical Depression SIX'. Currently Located at 13.8 North 27.8 West .. TD6 has sustained winds around 35 MPH with gusts around 45 MPH and is moving to the West Northwest at about 16 MPH. The central pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 Inches
Currently this Well defined Low Pressure Area has gotten it's act together, however drier air and cooler waters may inhibit further development in the coming days as it moves West Northwestward. I'll be watching this system in the days ahead.

Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.

######

Florida Disturbance 91L

Closer to home we have a disturbance off the Southeast Coast of Florida. Currently designated Invest 91L. Computer models suggest this disturbance will move North / Northeast in the coming days and interact with land late Saturday or Sunday somewhere along South Florida possibly crossing and re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico. 'Much remains uncertain' if this disturbance has enough time to become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm due to it's current location adjacent to the Florida Peninsula. One thing is certain, it will be a rainmaker.

Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 2 PM EDT August 3 2012.

######

Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.

 Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Storm Florence

Tropical Storm #Debby Flooding / Road Closures

4:00 AM EDT - 3:00 AM CDT 6/26/2012

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM MEXICO BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

Debby is nearly stationary at this time, continuing to pour heavy amounts of rain in already flooded areas of North Florida. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION, as Debby will remain in the area for a few more days dropping more rain on already flooded areas. At this time the area hardest hit is Wakulla county, Southeast Liberty county, North Franklin county, South Leon county, South Jefferson county, and Northwest Taylor county.

Extreme flooding concerns at this hour along the Sopchoppy River near Sopchoppy Florida where it is expected to crest at 41 feet, Flood stage is 28 feet. At 9:00 PM EDT / 8:00 PM CDT June 25 2012, a level was observed of 31.41 Feet. Voluntary evacuations in Wakulla county for homes along the Sopchoppy River, upper St. Marks River, the Ochlockonee River, and low lying areas throughout the county are RECOMMENDED.

Current Road Closures in Florida as of 3 AM EDT / 2 AM CDT June 26 2012:

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-377 [ALL AREA] x[SR375] [SOPCHOPPY] - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER - CAUTION WATER COMING OVER ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: US-98 x[BOTTOMS RD] [PANACEA] - CAUTION WATER COMING OVER ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: CR-375 x[SYFRETTE CREEK RD] [SOPCHOPPY] - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER - CAUTION WATER COMING OVER ROADWAY - CAUTION ROADWAY IS CLOSED USE ALTERNATE ROUTE

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-30 x[RUNNING DEER LN] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: SOPCHOPPY HWY x[ALLEN-GREEN RD] [SOPCHOPPY] - ROADWAY CLOSED NO TRAFFIC PERMITTED - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: LOWER BRIDGE RD x[TIGER HAMMOCK RD] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-30 x[WALKER FARM RD] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: SHELL POINT RD (CR-367) x[SPRING CREEK HWY (CR-365)] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - ROADWAY CLOSED EXCEPT TO RESIDENCE ONLY - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: SURF RD [MASHES SAND] x[SR-30] [PANACEA] - ROADWAY CLOSED EXCEPT TO RESIDENCE ONLY - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-30 x[WILDWOOD DR] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - EASTBOUND LANE UNDER WATER - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: PORT LEON DR x[NEWPORT RD] [ST MARKS] - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

+++++

FRANKLIN COUNTY: ISLAND DR [ST GEORGE ISLAND BRIDGE] x[US98] [EASTPOINT] - BRIDGE CLOSED CURFEW ENFORCED AT 8:00 PM NO ENTRY ONTO THE ISLAND BY ANYONE

FRANKLIN COUNTY: ALLIGATOR DR x[SR-30] [ALLIGATOR POINT] - ROADWAY CLOSED CURFEW ENFORCED AT 8:00 PM NO ENTRY TO ALLIGATOR POINT BY ANYONE

+++++

JEFFERSON COUNTY: SR-59 x[WHITEHOUSE RD] [LLOYD] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

JEFFERSON COUNTY: SPRING HOLLOW DR x[COOPERS POND] [MONTICELLO] - ROAD IS CLOSED USE ALTERNATE ROUTE - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

JEFFERSON COUNTY: US-27 (SR-20) x[US-19 (SR-57)] [CAPPS] - 3 TO 4 FOOT DEEP WATER ACROSS ROADWAY

JEFFERSON COUNTY: SR-30 x[HELLS HALF ACRE] [LAMONT] - TREE IN ROADWAY, COMPLETE ROAD BLOCK

Tropical Storm #Debby Still Stationary - June 25 2012

The timing and forecast track for Debby is still uncertain. Both GFS and ECMWF Models are coming into better agreement at this time in keeping Debby Stationary, or nearly so for the next day or so. [ See also: Sunday, June 24, 2012 - Tropical Storm #Debby - Track has changed considerably ]

At this time Debby remains Stalled / Stationary this morning and has been for some time now. Currently winds associated with Debby are 50mph sustained, down from our earlier report of 60mph. Debby is currently located about 90 miles south/southwest of Apalachicola Florida [ 28.6N 85.8W ], and minimum central pressure is 993mb.

This morning appears to be a lull with Debby. Later today Debby may undergo some regeneration associated with convection and may re-intensify. During this time winds with Debby will once again 'increase'. Due to the environment at hand, we can expect more severe weather in the form of thunderstorms and Tornadoes. 20 Tornadoes were reported yesterday, and 5 Saturday on the Florida Peninsula. Also compounding this will be 'flash flooding' and 'flooding' from heavy rains which will fall over the same areas associated with rainbands, and coastal flooding due to 'storm surge'.

At this time there is a 'Tropical Storm Warning' from the Mississippi / Alabama state line east through the Florida Big Bend and South to around Boca Grande and Charlotte Harbor.
A 'Tornado Watch' for Northern and Central Florida and adjacent Coastal Waters until 2:00 Pm EDT. This watch will likely be extend sometime later today.
A 'Flood Watch' for portions of Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia through Tuesday Morning and 'Flood Warnings' for various areas in Florida and Georgia.

You can find more information on Tropical Storm Debby on the Tropical Weather Page where Information and Graphics update automatically when changes are issued.

You can also find me on Twitter @cataulagawx .. and .. Facebook Cataula GA Weather. I share weather related information there as well.

Tropical Storm #Debby - Track has changed considerably - June 24 2012

It doesn't look as if Debby will be heading west as many thought earlier. Debby is now expected to impact areas of the Florida Panhandle to the Big Bend area. While Debby's track STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN, focus has now shifted to the coastal areas of the southeast. In my post on Thursday, June 21, 2012 Tropical Disturbance Gulf of Mexico, Possible Tropical Storm - June 23-26, I mentioned that Debby would likely impact areas of Florida. I preferred this area over a Texas landfall.

Areas along the Panhandle of Florida, the Big Bend area and south along the west Coast should remain EXTRA cautious due to the proximity of Debby and her uncertain forecast. The Forecast track of Debby remains Highly uncertain at this time and all residents along the coastal area are urged to remain aware of the situation.

Tropical Storm Warnings Continue for Areas from the Mississippi / Alabama State line EASTWARD to the Suwanne River in Florida.

Tropical Storm WATCHES have been extended SOUTHWARD along the WEST COAST of FLORIDA to ENGLEWOOD.

Tropical Storm Warnings for Louisiana have been discontinued at this time.
Tropical Storm Warnings from the Mouth of the Pearl River, West to Morgan City have been discontinued.


At this time Debby continues to move ever so slowly to the Northeast at 3 MPH. Sustained winds are Still around 60 MPH with higher gusts in and around the area. Tropical Storm Force winds Extend outwards up to 200 Miles from Debby, whose center is now located at 28.4N 85.8W, or about 205 Miles East Southeast of the Mississippi River, and /or 100 Miles South Southwest of the Apalachicola River.

Debby is not expected to move much in the next day or so. Debby will continue to bring heavy and copious amounts of rain to Florida, South Georgia and areas of South Alabama.
Many Gulf coastal areas of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana are under Flash Flood Watches and Flood Watches. Storm Surge may also become a hazard during this time.

Here is the latest possible track Debby will take as of 5 PM EDT June 24 2012.

You can find more information on Tropical Storm Debby on the Tropical Weather Page where Information and Graphics update automatically when changes are issued.

You can also find me on Twitter @cataulagawx .. and .. Facebook Cataula GA Weather. I share weather related information there as well.

I will be posting information concerning Tropical Storm Debby on Twitter and Facebook through the overnight Sunday and morning hours Monday.

Tropical Storm Chris - Short lived Post Tropical by Thursday

Tropical Storm Chris is the 3^rd tropical storm of 2012, and the 1^st since the 2012 Hurricane season began on June 1^st.

Tropical Storm Chris is not expected to strengthen much before becoming a post tropical cyclone sometime late Wednesday 6/20 or early Thursday 6/21 as he moves over cooler waters.

As of 11 PM Tuesday 6/19/2012, Tropical storm Chris was accelerating east / southeastward in the open Atlantic away form the east coast. Chris is not expected to be of any concern for the U.S. mainland.

Here's the latest information on Tropical Storm Chris...

LOCATION...38.8N 56.0W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

More information is available on the Tropical Weather Page

Georgia Drought Update - May 25 2012

Once again little change in Drought conditions in Georgia since my last drought report May 12 2012. There were areas in Georgia that saw some drought improvement, but without continued adequate rainfall, these areas will likely see drought conditions worsen as we move into the summer months.

Here's the current drought severity index for Georgia. Areas that saw improvement in the past 2 weeks - North GA, West Central GA, and Southeast GA.

Here's the current drought severity index for the southeast U.S, Areas in Upstate South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and Central to South Florida, saw some improvements due to Tropical Storm Alberto.

Speaking of Tropical systems ... Areas of south Georgia and north Florida my see some drought relief in the coming days. At this time [ 3:29 PM 5/25/2012 ] the National Hurricane Center is giving an area of low pressure in the Atlantic an 80 percent chance of developing into some type of tropical system. Maybe Tropical Storm Beryl ??

I wont bore you with the details, but here is a graphic from the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA from earlier today, showing possible impacts.

Also of interest form NWS PTC, this drought information statement released on May 24 2012...

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
115 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

...LONG TERM DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA...

THE SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER ALL OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A NEUTRAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SUMMER SEASON. THE DROUGHT IMPACTS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN AS VEGETATION DRAWS MORE
MOISTURE AND EVAPORATION RATES INCREASE. MOST SMALL LAKE...POND...STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TO SOME RECORD LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A FEW DAYS OF RAIN BROUGHT LITTLE RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OCCURRED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE PAST 14 DAYS. GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OCCURRED OVER MOST OF
NORTH GEORGIA DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

THE RAINFALL DEFICITS AND SOIL MOISTURE IMPROVED ONLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2 INCHES OR MORE DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREA. THE AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKLIN THROUGH ATLANTA AND LAWRENCEVILLE TO TOCCOA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT JUST EAST OF FRANKLIN TO NEWNAN TO GREENVILLE WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN OCCURRED.

Finally, here's the 'current' drought picture for the entire United States released on May 22 2012.

See also: The Drought Files. Covering drought in Georgia since 2007.

2011 Hurricane / Tropical Data for Atlantic

via unisys.com

Individual Storm Summary

Winds in knots, pressure in millibars,
category is based on Saffir-Simpson scale.

#	Name	Date	Wind	Pres	Cat
1	Tropical Storm ARLENE	29 JUN-01 JUL	55	993	-
2	Tropical Storm BRET	17-22 JUL	55	996	-
3	Tropical Storm CINDY	20-22 JUL	50	1000	-
4	Tropical Storm DON	27-30 JUL	45	998	-
5	Tropical Storm EMILY	01-07 AUG	45		-
6	Tropical Storm FRANKLIN	12-13 AUG	40	1004	-
7	Tropical Storm GERT	14-16 AUG	50	1000	-
8	Tropical Storm HARVEY	19-22 AUG	50	994	-
9	Hurricane-3 IRENE	20-29 AUG	105	942	3
10	Tropical Depression TEN	25-26 AUG	30	1007	-
11	Tropical Storm JOSE	28-29 AUG	40	1007	-
12	Hurricane-4 KATIA	29 AUG-10 SEP	115		4
13	Tropical Storm LEE	02-05 SEP	50	986	-
14	Hurricane-1 MARIA	06-16 SEP	70	979	1
15	Tropical Storm NATE	07-11 SEP	60	994	-
16	Hurricane-4 OPHELIA	21 SEP-03 OCT	120	940	4
17	Hurricane-1 PHILIPPE	24 SEP-08 OCT	80	976	1
18	Hurricane-2 RINA	23-28 OCT	95	966	2
19	Tropical Storm SEAN	08-11 NOV	55	983	-

via NOAA

The 2011 Hurricane Season in 4.5 minutes

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30 and produced a total of 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. This level of activity matched NOAA's predictions and continues the trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.

Surprisingly, none of the first eight tropical storms reached hurricane status, a record since reliable reports started in 1851. Hurricane Irene's effects in the Caribbean and the United States led to 43 deaths and accounted for the bulk of this season's damage at $7.3 billion. Irene was the first landfalling hurricane in New Jersey in 108 years. Hurricane Katia had far-reaching effects causing severe weather in Northern Ireland and Scotland and power blackouts as far east as Saint Petersburg in Russia. Tropical Storm Lee caused major flooding in Pennsylvania, New York and into the Canadian provinces of Quebec and Ontario. The strongest storm of the season was Ophelia, which reached category four strength in the Atlantic Ocean east of Bermuda.

An integral part of NOAA's ability to monitor and predict hurricane formation and movement is the data that is provided by the GOES satellite, with its visible imagery, infrared sensors, and sounding capabilities. This animations merges both the visible and infrared imagery taken by the GOES East (GOES-13) satellite every 30 minutes over the Northern Hemisphere from June 1 -- November 28, 2011.




_______

Active 2011 hurricane season breaks 'Hurricane Amnesia'

Irene the first hurricane to hit U.S. in three years; Northeast reminded it’s also vulnerable

November 28, 2011

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends Wednesday, having produced a total of 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. This level of activity matched NOAA’s predictions and continues the trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.

The 19 tropical storms represent the third-highest total (tied with 1887, 1995, and 2010) since records began in 1851 and is well above the average of 11. However, the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes is only slightly above the average of six and two, respectively. This year’s totals include a post-storm upgrade of Tropical Storm Nate to hurricane status, and the addition of a short-lived, unnamed tropical storm that formed in early September between Bermuda and Nova Scotia. This unnamed storm, along with several other weak, short-lived named storms, could have gone undetected without modern satellite technology.

Irene was the lone hurricane to hit the United States in 2011, and the first one to do so since Ike struck southeast Texas in 2008. Irene was also the most significant tropical cyclone to strike the Northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991.

“Irene broke the ‘hurricane amnesia’ that can develop when so much time lapses between landfalling storms,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “This season is a reminder that storms can hit any part of our coast and that all regions need to be prepared each and every season.”

As far as landfalling major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 with top winds of 111mph and greater) are concerned, the lull continues. 2011 marks a record six straight years without one hitting the United States. The last one to do so was Wilma in 2005. Nonetheless, wind is not the only threat with tropical systems as proven by Irene and Lee, which caused deadly and destructive flooding. On average, more than half of the fatalities related to tropical systems are due to flooding. continue reading http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111128_endofhurricaneseason_2011.html

Tropical Storm SEAN

Yesterday I mentioned Subtropical Storm SEAN, which is nothing more than some eye candy, a fish storm, not anticipated to make landfall anywhere in the US. At 2 PM AST November 8 2011, Subtropical Storm SEAN was upgraded to a Tropical Storm with winds of 45 MPH.

Here's the most recent release November 9 2011 :

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

TROPICAL STORM SEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
700 AM EST WED NOV 09 2011

...SEAN MEANDERING SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 70.5W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

As always, you can check the Tropical Weather Page for current and updated Tropical Weather Information.

Subtropical Storm SEAN

Tropical Weather Page updated. Check for the latest advisories and graphics on Subtropical Storm SEAN.

Subtropical Storm SEAN is not expected to have any impact on the east coast at this time. Subtropical Storm SEAN is the 18^th named storm of the 2011 hurricane season.

Most recent info via National Hurricane Center

AT 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 69.4W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

Named Tropical Systems in 2011

• Tropical Storm Arlene
• Tropical Storm Bret
• Tropical Storm Cindy
• Tropical Storm Don
• Tropical Storm Emily
• Tropical Storm Franklin
• Tropical Storm Gert
• Tropical Storm Harvey
• Hurricane Irene
• Tropical Storm Jose
• Hurricane Katia
• Tropical Storm Lee
• Hurricane Maria
• Tropical Storm Nate
• Hurricane Ophelia
• Hurricane Philippe
• Hurricane Rina
• Subtropical Storm SEAN

Map of Named Tropical Systems in 2011

Hurricane Rina forecast to be Major Hurricane

From a system yet to fully develop this past Friday, to a Hurricane today.

Rina intensified rather quickly in the warm waters of the Caribbean. At 5 PM EDT on Sunday she was a mere Tropical Depression. Later Sunday night at 11 PM EDT Rina became a Tropical Storm with max sustained winds of 40 MPH. 15 hours later on Monday Rina becomes a Hurricane with max sustained winds of 75 MPH as of 2 PM EDT.

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 PM EDT Monday October 24 2011:

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

Check the Tropical Weather Page for Graphics, Computer Models, and more information.

Ophelia ..she's back, Philippe still here

After dissipating into an area of disturbed weather for one day, Ophelia has once again found herself in more favorable conditions. Ophelia is still expected to stay out in the Atlantic, but she does bear watching. You can find updated information on Tropical Depression Ophelia as well as Tropical Storm Philippe on the Tropical Weather page.

Tropical Storm OPHELIA

Ophelia is on the board. Check the Tropical Weather page for updated graphics, public advisories and discussion which refresh when new ones are issued.

Current information as of 11 PM EDT September 20 2011 :

LOCATION...12.2N 40.1W
ABOUT 1585 MI...2555 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Discussion Highlights 11 PM EDT September 20 2011 :

WHILE OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR SO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE SOMEWHAT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE SHORT TERM. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/8...DUE TO THE RECENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 12.2N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.4N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 12.7N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 12.9N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 13.2N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 15.0N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 17.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 19.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

Georgia Drought Update September 1 2011

Drought conditions have worsened for much of Georgia, in the way of coverage. Here at the homestead I have had no appreciable rain since early August. I did have a quick rain shower yesterday Aug. 31 in the form of 0.11 inches, which wasn't enough to do a thing for the drought. Before this my last rain was on Aug. 11 and amounted to 0.29 inches. I finished the month of August below the average of 3.79 inches for my area with 3.52 inches. Columbus Ga to my south finished with over 5 inches. I missed reporting last week as all eyes were glued to Hurricane Irene. This graph below shows how bad things have gotten for Georgia since August 16 through August 30 2011. The area of extreme drought now covers most of the state.

I wont bore you with further details except to say, we need rain. We are watching an area in the Gulf of Mexico which is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend that may, may, bring some much needed rain to Georgia. It is to early still to tell if this will happen. Needless to say, some areas of the south and southeast are expected to receive a lot of rain from this system should it develop the way models are predicting. While we watch all of this unfold, we are still keeping an eye on Hurricane Katia which is still in open waters of the Atlantic. Models are thinking she will not make landfall in the U.S., but as before, it's early and things can and will change.