Hurricane Irene Update - Position at 5 AM EDT August 27 2011

As hurricane Irene continues to push northward, the biggest threat will be sporadic high wind and copious amounts of rain which will cause flooding. At the time of this writing, estimates of 1-2 to 3 million are without electrical power depending on which source you query. I'm sure this will increase as the day and hurricane Irene progress. Latest reports on deaths from Irene that I saw stand at 10, with 2 of those being children.

At this time Hurricane Irene made landfall 'again' at 5:35 a.m. EDT along the coast of New Jersey near Little Egg Inlet. The estimated intensity at landfall was 75 mph. Irene will make another landfall later this morning likely on Long Island NY around West Islip, however the Weather Channel [ Stephanie Abrams ] live at 6AM EDT stated landfall will be in Manhattan NY. Here is the current information on Irene as of 5 AM EDT --

HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...IRENE MOVING ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR NEW
YORK CITY AND INLAND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.2N 74.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

Here is the current position on the map as of 5AM EDT -

This will likely be my last post on the position of Irene. I may compile some images and videos at a later date, no promises. I will look for final totals on damage and death and may post them for the record at a later date.

Hurricane Irene Update - Landfall August 27 2011

Hurricane Irene is now a Strong category 1 hurricane. With winds still expected to be a threat early on, the bigger threat will be storm surge and rain amounts. This is provided she continues to weaken as she moves north northeast on her projected track.

Here are a couple screen grabs I took moments ago -

Hurricane Irene making landfall 524AMEDT AUGUST 27 2011

Hurricane Irene Rain total 1040pm-519amedt August 27 2011 Roughly 6½ hours

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center at 5 AM EDT, with forecast track and model plots following the text.

HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST.  IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE
IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY ONE AND CATEGORY TWO
STRENGTH.  SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IRENE REACHES THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS
IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
260 MILES...415 KM.  THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE LOOKOUT
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 61 MPH...98 KM/H...AND A WIND
GUST OF 78 MPH...126 KM/H.  A STORM SPOTTER IN STACY NORTH CAROLINA
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 93 MPH...150 KM/H. 

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.  A NOAA BUOY IN
ONSLOW BAY NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 
963.1 MB...28.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE WARNING AREA TODAY.  HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING
ONTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE DAY.  TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS
MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS.  STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.  STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.

Irene Forecast track as of 5amedt Aug 27 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 536amedt Aug 27 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 2amedt Aug 27 2011

Hurricane Irene Update - August 26 2011

Irene has weakened slightly at this time and is now a category 2 hurricane. Irene will continue to fluctuate in strength and size as she continues here track to the north and then northeast. Irene is a dangerous storm and these slight variations in size and strength should not be considered or overlooked as a sign of overall weakening.

People in the path of Irene should head the warnings issued and take appropriate measures to secure their well being. Property can often be replaced and there is nothing you con do to stop the power of a hurricane should it decide to take your property. Save your life, move to a safe place well inland from the storm.

Remember the reach of hurricane and tropical strength winds will be felt some distance from the actual center of the hurricane, as well as heavy flooding rains and tidal surge. At this time hurricane force winds extend outwards of 90 miles, and tropical storm force winds extend outwards up to 290 miles. Tropical storm winds are as deadly with speeds reaching 73 MPH where hurricane type devastation will occur. A wind of 50 MPH will cause trees to be uprooted and structural damage to property to occur.

Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center with projected track and model plots following the text -

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...IRENE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 77.2W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY...APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE TODAY...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD
BETWEEN CATEGORY TWO AND THREE AS IT REACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.   HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.  NOAA
BUOY 41010 LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH...119 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

Irene Forecast track as of 5amedt Aug 26 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 521amedt Aug 26 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 2amedt Aug 26 2011

Hurricane Irene Update - 6AM EDT August 25 2011

Hurricane Irene is acting up. The track once more has shifted to the West and now puts the center crossing the NC coast west of Cape Hatteras over the Pamlico Sound. Also, Once Irene makes landfall on the North Carolina coast and moves North, a second landfall on Long Island not too far east of New York City with a third landfall very near Bridgeport, CT. All of this is based off of current models and data. Be safe and if you know of someone in any of these areas, how about making sure they are aware of what's taking place.

Here is the latest from the NHC -

HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 76.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

Most recent computer models of Hurricane Irene track -

Irene Forecast track as of 5amedt Aug 25 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 2amedt Aug 25 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 551amedt Aug 25 2011

Hurricane Irene Wobbles to left - Satellite Image August 24 2011

I have a bad feeling about this. Trough stalled in GA at this time, next front on the way may be to late to steer Irene away especially if she gets larger and stronger. Irene may come closer to Florida as was originally thought. Hope I'm wrong. Definite wobble to the left....

This image is from 12:30 AM EDT




Here is the latest as of 2 AM EDT -

HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE STRENGTHENING...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

And we see, they too see the wobble in the same update

AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IRENE IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH

Hurricane Irene - Model plots August 23 2011 - East Coast Runner ??

Models have shifted a little more to the east once again. It's still looking likely that North Carolina will be impacted, how much is anyone's guess. I would suggest all on the East Coast keep an eye on Hurricane Irene as she could take a left turn at any time.

Looking at the official projected path of Irene from the National Hurricane Center anywhere from Wilmington North Carolina, Morehead City up through the Outer Banks may receive a direct hit. Hurricane force winds will be felt farther inland.

Irene Forecast track as of 2pmedt Aug 23 2011

Depending on the exact track Hurricane Irene takes, areas farther to the north are not out of the woods. If Irene is an east coast runner where the eye would remain over water, many areas would be impacted. Impacts would be lessened only due to the west side of the hurricane impacting these areas. Still, the damage form high winds and flooding will be great. Should Hurricane Irene move up the coast and impact highly populated areas and major cities like Washington D.C., Philadelphia or New York City, it will be devastating to the infrastructure of these cities.

The other side of the coin, Irene may not make landfall on the U.S. East Coast at all. With the High still firmly in place west of Texas and a deepening Trough from the North East in the East and shortwaves moving down, Irene may have a problem overcoming this. Of course no one can tell for sure if this will happen so everybody will need to stay vigilant.

Here is Irene's position as of 2 PM EDT

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 71.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

Here's a look at computer model forecast plots-

Irene Forecast track as of 351pmedt Aug 23 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 2pmedt Aug 23 2011_01

Side note: Did you hear about the 5.8 Earthquake on the East Coast today in Virginia ?

Hurricane Irene - Model plots August 22 2011 - Charleston South Carolina Targeted

Surprise ... computer models tracks for Irene have shifted east. It was first thought Hurricane Irene would track up the west coast of Florida or up the spine [central]. Now focus is placed on the east coast of Florida and the east coast as a whole. The definite track is still open but the frame is narrowing day by day.

At this time the National Hurricane Center is predicting a Major Hurricane Irene to impact around Charleston South Carolina on Saturday August 27^th. Here is the current forecast track and conditions as of 2 PM EDT today -

000
WTNT34 KNHC 221748
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
200 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 68.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

Irene Forecast track as of 2pmedt Aug 22 2011

Irene Satellite as of 215pmedt Aug 22 2011

As a reminder this track is not set in stone and will change one way or the other. The NHC even reminds us of this in the Hurricane Irene discussion by stating

DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.

With that in mind, Hurricane Irene could as well make landfall in Savannah Georgia which is overdue for a hurricane. Funny in that another Hurricane named Irene passed to the east of Savannah Georgia from the SSW on October 17 1999 with 75mph winds. This far out it is anyone's guess where Hurricane Irene will go, but the window is closing. Should Hurricane Irene make landfall somewhere on the U.S. coast, this will be the first hurricane landfall on the U.S. coast since Ike in 2008.

Here are some computer model plots -

Irene Forecast track as of 8amedt Aug 22 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 236pmedt Aug 22 2011