Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama, Florida Panhandle on Monday 10/01/2012

Already today [ Sunday 9/30/12 ] there have been 'isolated tornadoes' in Mississippi with damage reported and the threat may continue to increase through this evening for areas in Southeast Louisiana, Southern and Central Mississippi and West Central / Southwest Alabama. Likely the threat of strong storms will continue through the overnight into Monday morning as well.

Looks like at this time the severe threat on Monday will be greatest in the Afternoon through late evening into the early overnight if anything comes from it. Possibility of strong storms Monday into Tuesday as well. At the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger thunderstorms. This is not a widespread threat. Isolated severe only. Not everyone will experience serve weather.

Wind shear will be adequate to support rotation with some of the stronger storms as they move from West to East through the area Monday through Monday night and possibly Tuesday morning. While the threat for Tornadoes is low, the threat is there. Heavy rain could also be a problem causing Flash Flooding for some due to abundant moisture being pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico over the same areas.


Here's the current Storm outlook issued 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012. This will likely shift north in updates issued later as the Low and adjacent fronts continue pushing East and North.

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Statement from Storm Prediction Center 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ERN AL AND WRN GA MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45 KT. IN ADDITION...LCL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 500 METERS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE AL AND NW GA INTO SE TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE 9:45 AM 9/17/2012 - Georgia, Alabama, Florida Panhandle, Mississippi

The SPC has shifted the area of potentially Severe Storms and Isolated Tornadoes for Today through late this Monday evening through the overnight into Tuesday morning from previously [see below - Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama and Florida Panhandle - Monday 9/17/2012]. It now includes West Central Georgia through East Central and South Alabama, the Western Florida Panhandle and Southeast Mississippi.

The threats remain unchanged : Isolated Tornadoes, Strong to Severe Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and Heavy rain at times.

Not everyone will see severe weather.

Latest graphics issued 9 AM EDT

Click Image to Enlarge

Radar
Southeast



Southern Mississippi Valley



As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama and Florida Panhandle - Monday 9/17/2012

Tornado Threat Today highest in Central Georgia, Southeast Alabama, North Florida Panhandle 5% 'risk' and surrounding areas at 2%. Risk of localized flooding as well due to Expected heavy rains over same areas.

Looks like at this time severe threat will happen Late Monday into Tuesday if anything comes from it. Possibility of strong storms toady into Tuesday, at the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger thunderstorms. This is not a widespread threat. Isolated severe only. Not everyone will experience serve weather.

As I alluded to on Sunday in this tweet, cross posted on Facebook ...

Plenty of rain still in forecast and may get bumpy Monday for some. Know more later. #gawx

— Ed Quinn (@CataulaGaWX) September 16, 2012

A little bumpy ... I saw from modeling early Sunday cape would be marginal for thunderstorms. I also saw where wind shear would be adequate to support rotation with some of the stronger storms as they move through the area Monday evening into Monday night and Tuesday morning. While the threat for Tornadoes is low, the threat is there. At the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger storms. Heavy rain will also be a problem for some due to abundant moisture training over the same areas.

Here's the expected Rainfall from Monday through Wednesday

And here's the 5 day expected rainfall Monday through Saturday

Here's the current Storm outlook issued 2:00 AM EDT Monday September 17 2012. I have concerns this will shift more north in updates issued later today. I'll keep watching for a change.

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Statement from Storm Prediction Center 2:00 AM EDT Monday September 17 2012

THE SOUTHEAST...

NUMEROUS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE S CENTRAL U.S. UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SURFACE LOW. WITH TIME...THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS REGION AND INTO THE CAROLINAS.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES...ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/WEAKLY ROTATING CONVECTION. IN PARTICULAR...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS -- PROVIDING A ZONE OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCING THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...THIS ZONE OF ENHANCED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL -- WARRANTING AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA. A LARGER/LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA FOR WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IS BEING INTRODUCED FROM SRN LA ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITHIN THE BROADER WARM ADVECTION ZONE. WHILE SHIFTING W-E WITH TIME...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE ERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

#Nadine becomes a Hurricane, 8th of the 2012 Atlantic Season

Nadine will have no impact on the US mainland, still bears keeping an eye on her. Currently positioned at 30.0 North 52.8 West or about 725 miles east of Bermuda with maximum winds of 75 mph and a central pressure of 985 MB, Nadine is now moving North-Northeast at 14 mph. In the coming day Nadine is expected to turn toward the northeast and see a slight decrease in forward speed followed by an increase in forward speed and a turn more easterly Saturday night early Sunday morning.

I'll be keeping an eye on an area of disorganized convection in the Caribbean located about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands in the coming days. At this time it has a 10% chance of further developing and conditions do not look favorable at this time.

You can find all information on Nadine including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Tropical Storm #Nadine - 14th named storm of 2012 Hurricane Season - 9/11/12

Tropical Storm Nadine has formed in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and posses No threat to the U.S. or any land mass at this time. Forecast for Nadine take her in a similar path as what was Hurricane Michael which is now post tropical as is Leslie.

Currently [11:00 PM EDT 9/11/12] Nadine has winds of 40 mph and is moving West-Northwest at 15 mph with a central pressure of 1004 MB, and is located at 17.8 north 45.2 west or about 1735 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Nadine could become a hurricane in the next 2 days.

You can find all the information on this Storm including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Tropical Storm #Michael [#TD13] - September 4 2012

Tropical storm Michael the 13th named system of the 2012 hurricane season and the first of the month of September has formed.

While currently designated as Tropical Depression Thirteen at 10:00 AM EDT, he will be upgraded to a Storm on the 11:00 AM update from the National Hurricane center. Model guidance currently has him as a storm at this time.

AL, 13, 2012090412, , BEST, 0, 268N, 435W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1016, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, M,

Michael is not expected to have any impact of the U.S. mainland and will be another fish storm, only bothering fish and any shipping in the area.

You can find all the information on these Storms including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available