Severe weather still on track for Georgia and Alabama Wednesday JAN 30 #gawx #alwx

This was written for my local area and posted on my Facebook page Cataula Georgia Weather. The local area is Columbus and Fort Benning Georgia and Phenix City Alabama. You can use this information for areas anywhere in East Alabama and West Georgia as the system coming through will cover a large area. On with the show....

The exact time is still in question depending on which model you go by and I will continue to look at them for agreement. Still looking like instabilities will increase sometime after 8:00 AM EST Wednesday morning. Regardless of timing, before the main area comes through we may see some thunderstorms in the area some which could be severe with damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

The winds will be gusty during this time 20 to 25 mph and will increase as the expected line of stronger storms gets closer and moves through the area to about 40 mph. Gusty winds like this can cause damage without being associated with severe storms. Stronger winds are likely in any severe storm. I'll also keep a watch for any discrete / individual storm cells developing out in front of the main line. These may become strong enough to bring severe weather to the area before the main line. These type of individual storm cells may also be capable of spawning tornadoes. The greatest threat at this time remains unchanged from my previous posts .. Strong to severe 'damaging winds' are likely and the possibility of a tornado or two. As always, 'not everyone will see severe storms and or tornadoes'.

I'll be looking at this closely over the coming hours for any changes that may increase the severity of the storms. Right now I do have one concern. As the trough approaches that will be bring the storms to the area, it looks to go from a positive tilt to a neutral tilt. This will increase the wind speeds / shear in both the upper and lower levels. At this time the winds are more than adequate for a damaging wind event and a couple tornadoes. Any increase would make this a larger threat. If the trough should go negatively tilted, the wind and shear would again increase even more. This is something that will need to be monitored and I will be doing just that. I'll have another update Wednesday Morning or sooner is needed. ~ ED

As always, find me on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather and Twitter before and when the storms strike. I'm there all the time and don't always have time to update the blog here ;) Follow @Cataulagawx

Another round of Southeast Severe Weather for Wednesday / Thursday 12/19-12/20/2012

Moisture already beginning to be pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of this next system. This system is more potent that the one we saw earlier this week move across the south. It also looks to be faster.

Louisiana and Mississippi

Impacts will be felt in Louisiana beginning Wednesday Night moving quickly into Mississippi by Thursday morning. The greatest threat will be damaging winds of 60 mph plus that will accompany a squall line that is expected to develop. Due to strong wind shear and forcing to the surface, it is likely a few tornadoes will spin up quickly. These types of quick spin ups are hard to detect on radar and usually occur without Tornado Warnings being issued.

Outlook for Wednesday December 19 2012

Alabama and Georgia

It all comes down to timing as to what will happen in Alabama and Georgia. If it comes in later than anticipated I expect a more robust system with more widespread thunderstorms some that will turn severe. If it comes in earlier than anticipated I expect some thundershowers and a few thunderstorms. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE SEVERE WEATHER. Just as the storm system Yesterday, It didn't get bad until it was to our south and east.

At this time I expect the main line of stronger storms should they develop to enter the east Alabama area between 12 and 2 PM CST [Thursday] and West Georgia shortly after. This timing is subject to change in the next day or so. We'll just have to keep an eye on this and see what happens. Right now our area is highlighted just as it was yesterday for a 'slight risk' of stronger thunderstorms.

Outlook for Thursday December 20 2012

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Southeast Severe Weather December 16 2012 - Outlook for severe 12-19 / 12-20-12

Rain / Storms still on track. As mentioned yesterday - "On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday." Main threat still continues to be Damaging winds with stronger storms should they develop. However, due to the setup a LOW threat of a tornado is still present. Not everyone will see severe weather or a tornado. [ Note: Another round of storms expected around Wednesday / Thursday - See below graphic ]

Here's what the SPC has outlined for today into Monday Morning at this time...

And Monday morning thru Tuesday Morning at this time...

Here's the areas being watched at this time [Sunday afternoon] for possible severe weather on Wednesday Day 4 and Thursday Day 5. At this time the setup is looking interesting and if models remain consistent severe storms should develop in or around these areas.

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Possibility of Southeast Severe Weather Saturday thru Monday - December 15 2012

It seems our Second Severe Season has arrived albeit a bit late. Normally the fall severe weather begins in Mid to late November in the southeast. November this year was quite with the exception of a potential severe weather event in the southeast that never materialized during the Nov. 11^th thru 13^th time frame. If you were around this past week you may recall the Storms and Tornadoes in the Southeast on December 10 2012. on with the show ...

This coming bout of potential Severe weather will begin Late Saturday in the ARK-LA-MISS area shifting east with time into Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida. There remains uncertainty with the system as to timing and how strong storms may become due to how strong the upper level low pressure expected to develop in the northern tiers of this region becomes. The stronger the ULL, the more moisture it will pull north from the Gulf of Mexico into an already somewhat unstable air mass closer to the coast and extending northward. Regardless, am expecting some strong storms with isolated severe at this time throughout the region beginning today thru Monday again spreading west to east. Right now [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] confidence is somewhat LOW to the severe side based on how much cloud cover and rain occurs ahead of the frontal system in the warm sector.

Threats with this system will be in the form of Isolated strong to severe storms with the potential for a few Tornadoes with stronger storms possible. While the threat of tornadoes looks low at this time, a couple can't be entirely ruled out due to increasing shear layer to layer which may became surface based over time supporting Bowing Line areas capable of Damaging Straight Line winds and Isolated Supercells which may spawn a Tornado. There is also a threat of Flash Flooding in areas with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. As always .. not everyone will experience severe storms.

Today through Tomorrow morning the main threat will be the possibility of Damaging winds associated with strong thunderstorms that may develop generally in the afternoon and evening hours continuing through the overnight. ... On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday. On Sunday the Storm Prediction Center at this time [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] has an area highlighted for an elevated risk for strong to severe storms. We'll see how this area looks later today for possible increase in severity or even a decrease. For now here is what they have for Sunday Morning through Monday Morning. [click image to embiggen]

Here's the anticipated Rain Amounts Today through Tuesday Morning

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Storm Reports - Southeast Severe Weather on December 10 2012

See Side Note at bottom

Storm and Tornado reports from Monday's Severe Weather event December 10 2012

Here's the lead up to this event posted Monday 12/10/12

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Storm Warnings / Reports issued

Storm report Links [ Links open in New tab / window ]

Tornado Damage on December 10th, 2012 Birmingham (Jefferson) EF-1 Tornado via National Weather Service Birmingham, AL

Tornadic Debris Signature - 0.5 degree correlation coefficient (CC) of Dual Pol from KBMX. There are 3 images in this loop. Notice the "explosion" of CC just east of I-65 on the last two images. This is called a Tornadic Debris Signature or TDS.

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Severe Weather Event December 10, 2012 via National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge Louisiana

Walthall County Louisiana Tornado - KLIX Storm Relative Velocity at maximum intensity at 816 AM CST 12/10/2012

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December 9-10, 2012 Tornadoes Mississippi via National Weather Service Jackson, MS

Marion County Tornado - These images from the Brandon, MS doppler radar show the tornadic thunderstorm at 8:20 am as the tornado passed near Columbia. The image on the left shows 0.5° base reflectivity data, and the image on the right shows 0.5° storm relative velocity data.

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Side note : An active weather pattern continues next week and the following week. Next week may bring some interesting winter weather to the deep southeast per current models or severe storms depending where you're at. Still a lot of uncertainty in this forecast as models continue to flip flop on final outcome. Computer models should have a better idea this weekend and I'll post an update then. ~ Ed

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Update - Southeast Severe Weather Outlook - 8 AM EST 12/10/12

Severe storms began to fire up in Alabama and Mississippi around 5 AM EST and continue in Mississippi at this time 8:24 AM EST 12/10/2012.

The outlook for the late morning, early afternoon remains about the same as my earlier report. The main threat is strong damaging winds associated with the line of showers and storms ahead of the cold front currently in Mississippi. A 'tornado or two can't be ruled out later as numerous Tornado warnings have been issued today. The severe storms at this time are in South central Mississippi and South east Louisiana.

Throughout the remainder of the day this line of storms 'should weaken' as it pushes east into central and south Alabama and continues into Central and south Georgia. As stated, it 'should weaken' but bears keeping an eye on as it won't take much heating for instability to increase later and combined with adequate wind shear strong storms may develop once again. While my thinking is it will weaken and severe storms will be limited, a few isolated strong storms are possible given the moist unstable environment.

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Possible Severe Storms Monday December 10 2012

Good morning, Here's the weather outlook for Alabama and Georgia today.

Rain will be moving in today with Thunderstorms in the afternoon through the evening. There is still the possibility some of the storms could be severe. Not everyone will see severe weather. There is also a slim chance one of these strong storms could spin up a brief tornado, but the chances of that are very LOW. This is due to adequate wind shear in the upper levels. Outside of a possible tornado, the biggest threat at this time will be damaging winds with stronger thunderstorms. Not everyone will see this.

Check the Radar Page for current scans.

Rain could also be heavy at times, but I'm not anticipating a drought buster by any means. Rainfall amounts should be under a half inch. Cooler air moves in during and behind the rain with highs in the 50's to about Thursday, then a slight warm up before the next system arrives this coming weekend.

The next outlook from the Storm Prediction Center will be released this morning at 8 AM EST. I'll try and update you sometime this afternoon. ~ Ed Quinn

Early look at 'Possible severe weather' for November 11-13 2012

This is a look ahead to November 11^th through the 13^th. As you know things in the weather world change on a dime. Should this verify we may see some strong to severe storms in the South & Southeast, Tennessee valley, Middle & Lower Mississippi valley back into the Central & Southern plains. We are entering our Second Severe Weather Season in these areas. I'll keep a watch on modeling in the coming days as we near these dates.

Surface to 500mb Bulk Shear in knots. Here it looks pretty impressive and could support severe weather possible Tornadoes. [denotes the change of wind direction with height a measure of vorticity]

Cross over winds in knots from Surface[red] to 500mb[blue] [winds form different direction that may cause spin]

Temperature at the surface during this possible event shows the contrast ahead of the system vs behind it. Notice the 70's and 80's ahead and the cooler 30' and 40' behind. This is the same setup we deal with in spring as warm and colder air clash.

While dew points are modest approaching the 60's it doesn't take high dew points this time of year to provide more energy for storms. [Dew point is the measure of moisture / fuel in the air so to speak]

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Severe Weather Possible in Southeast Today and Tonight - October 17 2012

At this time the greatest threat will be Damaging winds, although a few Tornadoes can't be entirely ruled out as this system evolves. Large damaging hail may also be possible with stronger storms.

Severe weather is expected to develop later this evening and continue through the overnight for some areas in the deep south. Storms will begin late this afternoon in areas of Southern Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana continuing southeast into Northeast Louisiana and Northwest Mississippi this evening. By midnight the storms will be across Mississippi from Northeast to Southwest and beginning to move into Northwest Alabama. In the early morning hours weakening is expected as they continue to push through Alabama into Georgia. While weakening is expected they will still need to be watched.

Click Image to Enlarge

During the early evolution of this, storms should be more individual in the form of possible Supercells evolving later into a concentrated line of storms likely forming a squall line where damaging winds will be present. As always not everyone will experience severe storms but conditions will be favorable for them to develop at any time in and around the area. Make sure you continue to monitor this, and make sure your weather radio is in working order.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Twitter. You can follow along here @CataulaGaWX

Severe Storms Four Corners Region / Central & Southern Plains Today and Tomorrow Southern & Central Plains / Mid & Upper Mississippi Valley

Threats: Severe thunderstorms capable of Damaging winds along with hail some large enough to cause damage. A tornado or two can't be ruled out as storms intensify during daylight hours.

Today Friday 10/12 : A strong low pressure system currently centered in the area of Southern Nevada and Northwestern Arizona will continue to move in a east-northeast direction today. Severe storms 'already firing' in eastern Arizona this morning will continue while heading easterly and likely intensify as the day heats up. Also seeing some higher tops in eastern New Mexico Western Texas this morning on the outer periphery of the Low pressure circulation, these will likely continue to build through the day and possibly bring severe storms. A Tornado watch may be issued later today. Some weakening is likely during the overnight hours due to loss of daytime heating, but severe storms are still possible.

Tomorrow Saturday 10/13 : Storms look at this time to be more concentrated than those of Friday. As the Low pressure continues heading east-northeast, areas of the southern and central plains will likely see thunderstorms early Saturday morning which will continue to build through the day while heading for the Upper and lower Mississippi Valley. Later in the day they will likely bring with them severe storms capable of damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. As always not everyone will experience severe weather so stay aware of changing conditions. Monitor you local weather offices, television stations and weather radios. We'll have more on this later.

Below are graphics showing areas of concern and possible weather for today 'Friday 10/12/12' and tomorrow 'Saturday 10/13/12'.

Friday October 12 2012

Saturday October 13 2012

Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama, Florida Panhandle on Monday 10/01/2012

Already today [ Sunday 9/30/12 ] there have been 'isolated tornadoes' in Mississippi with damage reported and the threat may continue to increase through this evening for areas in Southeast Louisiana, Southern and Central Mississippi and West Central / Southwest Alabama. Likely the threat of strong storms will continue through the overnight into Monday morning as well.

Looks like at this time the severe threat on Monday will be greatest in the Afternoon through late evening into the early overnight if anything comes from it. Possibility of strong storms Monday into Tuesday as well. At the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger thunderstorms. This is not a widespread threat. Isolated severe only. Not everyone will experience serve weather.

Wind shear will be adequate to support rotation with some of the stronger storms as they move from West to East through the area Monday through Monday night and possibly Tuesday morning. While the threat for Tornadoes is low, the threat is there. Heavy rain could also be a problem causing Flash Flooding for some due to abundant moisture being pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico over the same areas.


Here's the current Storm outlook issued 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012. This will likely shift north in updates issued later as the Low and adjacent fronts continue pushing East and North.

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Statement from Storm Prediction Center 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ERN AL AND WRN GA MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45 KT. IN ADDITION...LCL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 500 METERS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE AL AND NW GA INTO SE TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama and Florida Panhandle - Monday 9/17/2012

Tornado Threat Today highest in Central Georgia, Southeast Alabama, North Florida Panhandle 5% 'risk' and surrounding areas at 2%. Risk of localized flooding as well due to Expected heavy rains over same areas.

Looks like at this time severe threat will happen Late Monday into Tuesday if anything comes from it. Possibility of strong storms toady into Tuesday, at the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger thunderstorms. This is not a widespread threat. Isolated severe only. Not everyone will experience serve weather.

As I alluded to on Sunday in this tweet, cross posted on Facebook ...

Plenty of rain still in forecast and may get bumpy Monday for some. Know more later. #gawx

— Ed Quinn (@CataulaGaWX) September 16, 2012

A little bumpy ... I saw from modeling early Sunday cape would be marginal for thunderstorms. I also saw where wind shear would be adequate to support rotation with some of the stronger storms as they move through the area Monday evening into Monday night and Tuesday morning. While the threat for Tornadoes is low, the threat is there. At the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger storms. Heavy rain will also be a problem for some due to abundant moisture training over the same areas.

Here's the expected Rainfall from Monday through Wednesday

And here's the 5 day expected rainfall Monday through Saturday

Here's the current Storm outlook issued 2:00 AM EDT Monday September 17 2012. I have concerns this will shift more north in updates issued later today. I'll keep watching for a change.

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Statement from Storm Prediction Center 2:00 AM EDT Monday September 17 2012

THE SOUTHEAST...

NUMEROUS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE S CENTRAL U.S. UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SURFACE LOW. WITH TIME...THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS REGION AND INTO THE CAROLINAS.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES...ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/WEAKLY ROTATING CONVECTION. IN PARTICULAR...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS -- PROVIDING A ZONE OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCING THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...THIS ZONE OF ENHANCED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL -- WARRANTING AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA. A LARGER/LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA FOR WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IS BEING INTRODUCED FROM SRN LA ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITHIN THE BROADER WARM ADVECTION ZONE. WHILE SHIFTING W-E WITH TIME...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE ERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Georgia Severe Weather Saturday, January 21, 2012

A recap of severe weather on Saturday, January 21, 2012 in Georgia

We experienced everything you would expect from a spring time severe weather outbreak, of course we are barely midway through the winter season.

The storm system that moved through the area brought with it Tornadoes, Strong winds, Hail, Frequent Lightning, and Flooding to may areas of the state. Hail was reported the size of Golf balls in many areas including the local area. Here at the homestead I received and reported pea to dime size hail and winds estimated at 40 MPH. I picked up about 0.75 inches of rain in under 30 minutes, with a storm total of 1.47 inches. There was also wind damage in the local area with reports of trees being down. Across the north, central and southern areas of the state, many radar indicated tornadoes were warned, including here in Harris county where I reside. At this time none of these radar indicated tornadoes have been confirmed, although I expect at least 2 possibly to be, One in the Coweta County area and another South of Perry Georgia.

Here's a map showing Tornado Warnings [RED], Severe Thunderstorm Warnings [YELLOW] and Flash Flood Warnings [Green] in Georgia beginning on Saturday January 21 2012 at 12:00 AM EST and ending Sunday morning January 22 at 12:00 AM EST.

Purple with white dots [HAIL REPORT]
Orange with Green [Thunderstorm Wind Damage]
Green with Wavy lines [Flash Flood]
Orange with word 'WIND' [Non Thunderstorm Wind Damage]
Red with White Cloud [ Funnel Cloud Reported]

I'll post an update as information becomes available.

Alabama Hail January 7 2012 - Pictures

Strong storms rolled through parts of Northern Alabama on January 7 2012 dropping heavy amounts of hail. Enough hail to cover the ground making it look like a January snow. All images courtesy James Spann

Hail covering the ground in the Dallas-Selfville community of southern Blount County northeast of Birmingham 01-07-2012

Hail from the stronger storms over North Alabama 01-07-2012

Hail covering Alabama Highway 79 in north Jefferson County near Trafford 01-07-2012

Roads are hail covered in Cleveland Alabama Blount County 01-07-2012

Radar Screen Shot 2012-01-07 at 356 PM CST

Follow Up: Georgia / Alabama Tornadoes December 22 2011

In my earlier post [ 3 Confirmed Tornadoes in Georgia on December 22 2011, and the bad news is.. ] I provided what information was available at the time. I was aware of tornadoes in Alabama on December 22 2011, but no information was yet available. Below find information on the tornadoes in Alabama December 22 2011, as well as updated information on the tornadoes in Georgia on December 22 2011.

Tornadoes in Georgia Updated to add graphics and pictures.

Click images to enlarge. Use your back button to return here.

EF-3 TORNADO IN GORDON COUNTY	Remains of a house near Calhoun, GA
EF-2 TORNADO IN FLOYD COUNTY	Aerial View of Damage in Floyd Co, GA
EF-1 TORNADO IN COWETA COUNTY	Damage to House, Trees Down in Coweta Co, GA

You can read the event summary and view more damage pictures at the Peachtree City National Weather Service page Here

Tornadoes in Alabama December 22 2011

Centreville (Bibb) EF-0 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Bibb County and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. An EF-0 tornado with winds of 70 to 80 mph briefly touched down 2 miles south of Centreville. Several large pines were uprooted at this location. No other damage was noted in either direction, which indicates just a brief touchdown along County Road 219. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]

Lawley (Bibb) EF-0 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Bibb County and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. An EF-0 tornado with winds of 70 to 80 mph briefly touched down between Lawley and Randolph in southeast Bibb County. Damage along the beginning of the path was only 50 yards wide. This was along Hwy 82, where only large limbs were broken. The tornado then lifted just east of County Road 36. Here, the damage was 150 yards wide with numerous trees uprooted and snapped. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]

Dallas County EF-0 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Dallas County and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. The tornado touched down approximately 6 miles east of Selma along County Road 306 where minor tree damage occurred, along with roof damage to two mobile homes. The tornado then traveled further to the northeast, to Garner and Harville Roads where several soft and hardwood trees were damage or snapped. There was also some structure damage, with one outbuilding destroyed and one mobile home that was shifted off its foundation blocks. The tornado lifted shortly after, near River Road, with evidence of some additional tree damage. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]

Columbiana (Shelby) EF-0 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Shelby County and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. An EF-0 tornado with winds of 70 to 80 mph briefly touched down in Columbiana along County Road 47 and moved northeast for 1.9 miles and lifted along County Road 25. Along its path, 2 homes were damaged due to falling trees and approximately 50 trees were either snapped or uprooted. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]

Autauga and Elmore County EF-0 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Autauga and Elmore Counties and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. The tornado touched down along County Road 57, about 3 miles northwest of Boones Chapel, where significant roof damage occurred to a mobile home. The same mobile home also sustained decking material damage and damage caused by a fallen tree. The tornado continued northeast, crossing Interstate 65 and Highway 31, where additional tree damage occurred. Significant damage also occurred further northeast along County Road 68 and Highway 143 in the Wadsworth community, where several outdoor buildings sustained structural damage, along with damage to several hard and softwood trees. The tornado began to lift just across the Elmore County line on Tram road where additional outbuilding roof and tree damage occurred. The parent supercell produced another tornado that moved through Coosa and into Tallapoosa County [ See Information Below - Elmore/Coosa/Tallapoosa County EF-1 Tornado ]. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]

Elmore/Coosa/Tallapoosa County EF-1 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Elmore, Coosa and Tallapoosa Counties and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. A non-continuous tornado track with maximum EF-1 winds of 90 to 100 mph moved across portions and northern Elmore, eastern Coosa and lifted just east of the Tallapoosa County line. The tornado first touched down on Grey Ferry Road resulting in 50 snapped trees. Sporadic damage occurred along the path with two distinct areas reaching EF-1 strength. The first area of EF-1 damage occurred on County Road 14 just east of Hwy 231 in Coosa County. Here, hundreds of trees were snapped with a damage width of 200 yards. The tornado then continued northeast, crossing Hwy 231 and County Road 22. This is where the tornado reached its maximum width of 300 yards near Hissop in Coosa County. The tornado continued northeast and regained its EF-1 strength on County Road 89 near Hwy 280 in Kellyton. Here, a large metal building was destroyed and a large 100 year-old oak was uprooted. The tornado lifted just northeast of Hwy 280 on Hix Road in Tallapoosa County. Along its path, 1 building was destroyed and 1 home was damaged. In total, approximately 400 to 500 trees were snapped or uprooted. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]

See also: Tornadoes on December 22nd, 2011 - Event Summary for Central Alabama via National Weather Service Birmingham, AL

3 Confirmed Tornadoes in Georgia on December 22 2011, and the bad news is..

Only 1 of theses Tornadoes was in a Tornado warned area. The other 2 Tornadoes spawned in areas that had Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

This should be a LESSON TO US ALL. Please take Severe Thunderstorm warnings seriously. Tornadoes often spawn in these Severe Thunderstorms warned areas before any Tornado warning is issued. Some Tornadoes are so quick that by the time a tornado warning is issued, the tornado has dissipated.

I created the below map using data from the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA and Iowa Environmental Mesonet. To the best of my knowledge all data used is correct at the time of making the map.
The watch area data, both Tornado Warning [red shaded area] and Severe Thunderstorm Warning [yellow shaded areas] were collected from Iowa Environmental Mesonet and imported into the map via KML file.
The Blue Place Markers indicate the beginning and end of each individual tornado path and was entered from data supplied from NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT issued 526 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2011 [Below].


View Tornadoes in Georgia December 22 2011 in a larger map

You can click the link at the bottom of the map for a larger version and associated TEXT [also below]information, or This Link, it goes to the same map.

Once the National Weather Service in Peachtree City updates their site with information, I will post in to the blog. For now, here is the text of the statement they have released...

594 
NOUS42 KFFC 232226
PNSFFC

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
526 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2011

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...EF-3 TORNADO IN GORDON COUNTY... 

EVENT DATE: DECEMBER 22 2011
ESTIMATED START TIME: 525 PM EST
EVENT TYPE: EF-3 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 150
EVENT START LOCATION: 34.37N/-85.10W
EVENT END LOCATION: 34.48N/-84.86W
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 15
DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS): 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE WIDE
INJURIES: NONE.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE: 1 HOME DESTROYED, SEVERAL DAMAGED.

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ASSESSMENT TEAM DISPATCHED TO FLOYD AND 
GORDAN COUNTIES INVESTIGATED DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS 
THAT MOVED ACROSS FLOYD INTO GORDON COUNTY THE EVENING OF DECEMBER 
22. IT WAS DETERMINED THAT EF0 DAMAGE BEGAN IN FAR NORTHEAST FLOYD 
COUNTY NEAR HIGHWAY 140 ABOUT 2.75 MILES NORTH OF SHANNON AND 
STRENGTHENED TO AN EF1 ALONG EMILY LANE JUST EAST OF PLAINVILLE IN 
SOUTHWEST GORDAN COUNTY WHERE SEVERAL HOMES WERE DAMAGED FROM 
FALLING TREES. THE TORNADO THEN STRENGTHENED TO EF3 AT THE CORNER OF 
BOONE FORD ROAD AND BEASON ROAD NEAR CALHOUN GEORGIA WHERE A HOME 
WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED. SHORTLY AFTER THIS...THE TORNADO WEAKENED 
TO AN EF0 AND DISSIPATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF CALHOUN, GEORGIA. 
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE REPORTS ESTIMATE THAT SEVERAL HOMES WERE 
DAMAGED...ONE COMPLETELY DESTROYED AND NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED. 

$$

DARBE

 
284 
NOUS42 KFFC 232053
PNSFFC

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2011

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...EF-2 TORNADO IN FLOYD COUNTY... 

EVENT DATE: DECEMBER 22 2011
ESTIMATED START TIME: 455 PM EST
EVENT TYPE: EF-2 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 125
EVENT START LOCATION: 34.246338N/-85.242012W
EVENT END LOCATION: 34.3252N/-85.1413W
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 8
DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS): 200
INJURIES: 3 MINOR.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE: 20 HOMES.

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ASSESSMENT TEAM WAS DISPATCHED TO FLOYD 
COUNTY NEAR ROME TO INVESTIGATE DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS 
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE EVENING OF DECEMBER 22. IT WAS DETERMINED 
THAT EF1 DAMAGE BEGAN WEST OF ROME AND STRENGTHENED TO EF2 AS THE 
STORM PROGRESSED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COMMUNITY OF WALTON CREEK. THE 
EF2 DAMAGE CONTINUED FOR APPROXIMATELY A MILE AND A HALF AS IT 
CROSSED HIGHWAY 20. THE TORNADO EVENTUALLY LIFTED AND DISSIPATED 
JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 53 AND NORTH OF JONES BEND ROAD. PRELIMINARY 
ESTIMATES FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ARE OF 20 HOMES WITH SIGNIFICANT 
DAMAGE BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE REVISED AS MORE DETAILS COME 
FORWARD. THE SURVEY TEAM IS INVESTIGATING OTHER STORM DAMAGE AND 
UPON THEIR RETURN WILL LIKELY ADD DETAILS TO THIS REPORT.

$$

DEESE

 
692 
NOUS42 KFFC 231954
PNSFFC

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2011

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...EF-1 TORNADO IN COWETA COUNTY... 

EVENT DATE: DECEMBER 22 2011
ESTIMATED START TIME: 644 PM EST
EVENT TYPE: EF-1 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 90
EVENT START LOCATION: 33.2664N/-84.7997W
EVENT END LOCATION: 33.2735N/-84.7833W
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 1
DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS): 100
INJURIES: NONE.

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ASSESSMENT TEAM WAS DISPATCHED TO 
SOUTHERN COWETA COUNTY TO INVESTIGATE DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE EVENING OF DECEMBER 22. IT WAS 
DETERMINED THAT STRONG STRAIGHT LINED WINDS WERE INITIALLY 
RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TREES AND POWERLINE DAMAGE JUST NORTH OF 
GRANTVILLE. AS THE STORM PROGRESSED NORTHEAST...A CIRCULATION 
DEVELOPED AND TIGHTENED BETWEEN GRANTVILLE AND MORELAND RESULTING IN 
SHORT LIVED TORNADO DAMAGE. A DAMAGE PATH OF JUST OVER A MILE WAS 
FOUND WITH EF1 DAMAGE BEGINNING AT TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR POLK ROAD 
AND SNAPPING DOZENS OF TREES AS IT MOVED TOWARD DINGLER ROAD. ONE 
HOME ON POLK ROAD HAD MOST OF ITS ROOF REMOVED AND SEVERAL TREES ON 
THE PROPERTY WERE UPROOTED AND SNAPPED.

$$

DEESE

Slight Risk of Severe Weather today in Alabama and Georgia - December 22 2011

Possible Tornadoes, Supercells and Damaging Winds.

I dont think from what I looked at we will have to deal with any of this. This is just a heads up as to what may and can happen today. Yes we are in the month of December, but this is the south where during this time of year anything can happen, nonetheless the risk is slight but it is there.

So what do I mean anything can happen ? It was March 1 2009 when close to 6 inches of snow fell in the area. The day before on February 28 2009 a Tornado hit Lee and Tallapoosa counties in Alabama across the river. Ten days earlier in Georgia on Feburay 18 2099 at least 10 tornadoes were confirmed across north and central Georgia, as well as many hail and wind damage reports.

So you see,it can happen.

Here is the outlook for todays Slight Risk from the Storm Prediction Center.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WRN TX INTO COAHUILA WILL TRACK
E/NEWD ACROSS TX THIS MORNING BEFORE DAMPENING AS IT ACCELERATES
NEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK CYCLONE WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF
THE TX COAST...ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NRN AL...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY FRI.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH...
A SWATH OF RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK
ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU ACROSS ERN TX INTO
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
SHOULD RETARD THE NWD RETREAT OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO BISECT LA/MS INTO NRN AL BY 18Z. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
SWLYS COUPLED WITH STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT THROUGH MID-LEVEL
DCVA/LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING E/NEWD ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS PROMOTING A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

FARTHER E/SE...A SEPARATE AREA OF MORE DISCRETE TSTMS SHOULD FORM
WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THIS
SCENARIO IS INFERRED BY OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WITHIN AN AXIS OF
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND DEPICTED BY CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF-NMM AND
HRRR GUIDANCE. DESPITE POTENTIALLY LIMITED SURFACE HEATING...65-70 F
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 400-800 J/KG. 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150-250 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT A
FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES/DAMAGING
WINDS...PEAKING IN THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH NEWD EXTENT
TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT
EXPECTED AFTER DARK AS THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WEAKENS AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY DIVORCED FROM THE WARM SECTOR.

..GRAMS/ROGERS.. 12/22/2011

Isolated Strong to Severe Storms still on tack for Tuesday 11/22..

..through the overnight hours into Wednesday 11/23.

Anytime Tuesday after 12 PM through Wednesday 7 AM the potential for isolated severe weather will be present. From Bufkit soundings, here are the time frames I see the best chances of seeing severe weather in the Local Area Tuesday into Wednesday:

Per NAM : time frame for best chance of seeing severe will be 11 AM - 12 PM EST Tuesday to about 8-9 PM EST, and from 12-1 AM EST Wednesday to around 7 AM EST.

Per GFS : time frame for best chance of seeing severe will be 3-4 PM EST Tuesday to about 6-7 PM EST, and 1-2 AM EST Wednesday to around 4-5 AM EST.


Many National Weather Service offices continue to mention the 'threat of isolated severe to strong storms' in Georgia, Alabama, the panhandle of Florida, South & North Carolina.

The biggest threat still remains 'strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, and possibly a Tornado' or two.

Here's the latest from the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday 7 AM EST through Wednesday 7 AM EST... I left out the technical jargon..

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH QLCS [Quasi Linear Convective Systems] THE DOMINANT MODE AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN 45+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AS IT CONTINUES EWD...AND STORMS MAY UNDERGO SOME STRENGTHENING AS THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...BUT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE IS EXPECTED IN THE CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD EWD INTO NRN GA AND SC OVERNIGHT.

Here's the latest Convective Outlook Graphic for Tuesday 11/22/2011. The local area in now included in the 15% probability for isolated severe storms. Yesterday, we were in a 5% area.

____________________

via the NWS Peachtree City, GA Covering the local area and areas to our north and east..

MAIN CONCERN IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FORECAST AREA DEEP IN THE WARM SECTOR... EXPECT MID-UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO PRODUCE 500-1000 CAPE INTO TUESDAY EVENING WHEN STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO NW AND WEST CENTRAL GA. THESE CAPE VALUES COUPLED WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEER AND HELICITY FROM STRONG VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST ALABAMA STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH AS THEY PUSH INTO GA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES AHEAD AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING A MAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS RECENTLY INCREASED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO INCLUDE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WASHINGTON LINE. BEST GUESS ON SEVERE THREAT TIMING IS NW AND WEST CENTRAL GA BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM...THEN AREAS FURTHER EAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT STORMS TO BE WEAKENING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BY 3-4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL GA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT... WHICH IS NOT PROGGED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS...WENT WITH A MAV AND MET BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EXPECTED NEAR OR NEW RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

____________________

via the NWS Birmingham, AL covering areas to our West including Lee & Russell Counties, Auburn / Opelika and Phenix City Alabama....

THE NAM SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACCELERATING EASTWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE LINE SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM. WITH AN ERODING UPPER CAP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS WEST ALABAMA...THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EAST ALABAMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM MODEL IS SHOWING AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA. SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT THIS AREA WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND INSTABILITY FOR LOCALIZED STRONG STORMS.

VEERING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS BY SUNSET TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END THE THREAT OF PRE-SQUALL LINE SUPERCELLS WITH THE FOCUS FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

____________________

NWS Tallahassee, FL covering areas to our south including southwest Georgia, southwest Alabama and parts of the Florida panhandle and Big Bend area...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHILE IT IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA. BY THE TIME THE STORMS REACH OUR FORECAST AREA...SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THEY WILL BE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

This was a follow up post on Potential Severe Weather Thanksgiving Week 2011 posted Sunday, November 20, 2011.

Potential Severe Weather Thanksgiving Week 2011

Disclaimer: I'm not trying to scare anyone, especially in light of the severe weather we had in the local area last week. I am only giving you a heads up as to what is expected to occur in areas west of us, and could possibly move into the local area. I am NOT a Professional Meteorologists

While the level of severe weather is yet to be determined for the local area, areas to our west may be in line for strong storms and possibly a few tornadoes.

Much like the weather pattern of last week where we saw tornadoes pass through the local area, the same setup is once again expected to occur.

At this time [10:17 PM 11/20/2011] I'm not looking for anything more than a few thunderstorms in the local area, as the frontal boundary and associated surface low should remain to our west. Another reason is due to the system moving through the local area during late evening and overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday. This should allow it to weaken, However this could change as the timing of the system is still in question.

Here's the current graphic from the Storm Prediction Center for 7 AM EST Tuesday 11/22 through 7 AM EST Wednesday 11/23. Pay attention to the area outlined in Brown. The local area is included in this 5% area for potentially severe weather.

Why do I point out the above 5% potential ? Because on Wednesday November 16, the day the tornado passed through Harris County, the local area was also included in a 5% severe probability, seen below.

This is not saying we will see any severe weather this week, only that the potential is there at this time.


In the lead up to the severe weather and tornadoes of November 16, I gave you a heads up on November 15. Also in that post was mentioned, "THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA COMES AROUND THANKSGIVING.". Well, after this system in mid week passes by, the next one will come in and move through the local area over the coming weekend bringing another shot of rain. It's to early to tell at this time if any severe weather will accompany it.