Severe Storms Impacting Alabama and Georgia Tuesday July 31 2012

Severe Storms are already impacting North Alabama at this hour 1:45 AM EDT 7/31/2012. Numerous Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued thus far.

Looking at radar trends the past few hours the overall coverage of the MCS [ Mesoscale Convective System ] storm complex early this morning is yet to fill in, it is still on track to better organize and bring more severe weather to areas in Alabama and Georgia through this morning and the afternoon hours. The greatest threat will be Damaging winds along with hail, heavy rains and copious amounts of lightning as reported via twitter.

The first round of severe weather is as stated currently impacting areas of North Alabama. I feel as though this area will continue to impact this area and to the south in Central Alabama through the early morning hours. I also feel that the activity entering Northern Georgia will intensify in the coming hours and possibly impact the Atlanta area between 6 and 8 AM this morning.

This complex of storms will continue to build and regenerate throughout the day rotating around the eastern fringe of high pressure located to the west. The storm will rotate in a clockwise manner basically training from North to south.

Here is a panel showing Simulated Radar beginning at 5 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012 and running through 5 PM EDT. At this time now 2 AM EDT the simulation has a fairly good handle on what is currently occurring. Click Images to Enlarge.

Here is a graphic showing what I think the movement of the storms will be through the morning and should also occur throughout the day, rotating in the clockwise manner mentioned above.

Here are the most recent graphics issued by the Storm Prediction Center this morning at 2 AM EDT.

Much of the southeast is covered by the 'Slight Risk' category for seeing Severe Storms.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Much of the Southeast has a 15% chance while an elevated risk of 30% exist for south Georgia, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. While hail has been reported early this morning, it remains a low risk of seeing any. Only 5% for the entire area.

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See the lead up to this event posted Monday July 30 2012 at 5:40 AM EDT here - Georgia / Alabama Possible Severe Storms Tuesday July 31 2012

You can find me on Twitter and Facebook during severe weather events such as this where I post updates and any other time as well. Twitter - https://twitter.com/cataulagawx and Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Georgia / Alabama Possible Severe Storms Tuesday July 31 2012

If the NAM models holds true the local area [Columbus Georgia] may see some rough weather as early as 8 AM Tuesday Morning. At this time 5:34 AM 7/30/2012 it appears North Georgia and the Atlanta Georgia area will get the brunt of the storm at the beginning and then Central Georgia. I'm not 100% sure what may develop. That meaning / being a Mesoscale Convective System [MCS] with a Bow Segment / Squall Line capable of damaging straight line winds or just a very organized Mesoscale complex of strong to severe Thunderstorms also capable of damaging winds. The difference in the two will be the coverage area of a possible damaging wind event with the MCS being the worst more widespread of the two.

Still uncertainty in the timing, development and placement [area affected] of this storm system. Just giving a heads up. A lot can change in 24 hours.

Here's a few of the NAM model images from the 00z run July 30 2012 showing the composite reflectivity [ Simulated Radar] beginning at 2:00 AM EDT Tuesday Morning July 31 through 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012. None of this is set in stone at this time.


2 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

5 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

8 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

11 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

2 PM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

5 PM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

AGAIN this is 'provided' the storm develops. At this time the Storm Prediction Center in their day 2 outlook seem to think something will happen. I'll keep an eye on this and will post updates whether bad or good.

Here's the wording from the Storm Prediction center at this time along with the graphics. The next update is scheduled at 1:30 PM today.

EASTERN U.S....

MODELS STILL INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /ON THE ORDER OF 30+ KT AT 500 MB/ EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES...WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...CONTINUE TO DIG AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE...NOW EMERGING FROM THE MONSOONAL REGIME AND PROGRESSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO COINCIDE WITH THE EASTERN EDGE/NOSE OF HOTTER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF GENERATING SIGNIFICANT FORWARD PROPAGATING COLD POOLS...AND ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ONE OR TWO STORM CLUSTERS APPEARS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES...WHERE THE RETURN OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES...IS EXPECTED. STORMS MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS MID DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BEFORE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES AND GROWS UPSCALE...WHILE TENDING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Storms on track,Mississippi,Alabama and Georgia June 4 2012

7:04 AM 6/4/2012


As mentioned yesterday Sunday, June 3, 2012, storms will be impacting the southeast today. Some areas saw severe storms yesterday, including Tornadoes.

At this time there is a Mesoscale Convective System ongoing in North Mississippi and Alabama. This MCS will continue moving south / southeast through the morning hours. This storm complex is generating severe storms producing damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH, hail to 1.5 inches, dangerous frequent lightning and heavy rain. The individual cells embedded within this complex are moving southeast at a rapid pace of between 45 and 70 MPH. There is also another one behind this one that may impact the same areas during the overnight and into Tuesday June 5.

The tornado threat remains low at this time, but 1 or 2 can not be entirely ruled out due to the nature of the storm system. The main threat will remain strong damaging winds and hail. Instability increases this afternoon where once aging severe weather is expected.

At this time the Storms Prediction Center has large areas in Alabama and Georgia highlighted in a 'slight risk' area. Meaning a better chance of seeing thunderstorms than not.

The SPC also has the same areas from the graphic above highlighted for strong winds and hail.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

There are no severe thunderstorm watches or Tornado watches in effect at this time. This is likely to change at some point this morning due to the evolving cluster of storms. There is a Mesoscale Discussion, which is basically outlining the possibility of some type of Weather Watch being issued. At 6:33 PM EDT, this probability is at 60%. The highlighted area in the graphic is the general area the watch will be issued for.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

See the lead up post on this event, posted on Sunday, June 3, 2012 at 10:49 AM : Severe Storms possible in Georgia and Alabama June 4/5 2012

Severe Storms possible in Georgia and Alabama June 4/5 2012

See updated post on this event here - 7:04 AM 6/4/2012 Storms on track,Mississippi,Alabama and Georgia June 4 2012

Threats: The main threat from this round of storms will be 'damaging winds', with some areas also having the potential for seeing some hail. The tornado threat is low at this time.

What: Mesoscale Convective System - The main area of storms that will be pushing through the area will be fairly organized in nature, with stronger storms embedded with the main complex. Storms may develop out ahead of the main system. This will be difficult to determine until the main complex has formed and begins to move through the area.

When: Timing is another factor difficult to determine with a system such as this. At this time, For areas in north Alabama and Georgia, it looks like it will start to become active in the early morning hours on Monday, as early as 5 AM.
Depending on forward motion/speed, Central Alabama and Georgia may begin to see activity around 8 AM peaking in the afternoon and early evening hours. During daytime heating the storms may intensify.
The storms will continue pushing south/southeast through the day and into the overnight hours Monday reaching the southern areas sometime early Tuesday morning.

As with all systems of this nature, not everyone will experience severe weather.

At this time the storm prediction center has the Northern and Central areas of Alabama and Georgia mentioned above highlighted in a 'Slight Risk' for Monday and shifts the 'Slight risk' area to the south for Tuesday. I will continue to monitor the situation for possible upgrade to a 'moderate risk' for these areas depending on storm evolution.

Here's a composite showing the Monday and Tuesday 'slight risk' areas.

As usual when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Gulf Coast Meso march

They look like Meso Convective Vortices. At the least they're Meso Convective Systems.

This MCS/MCV [below] entered the Gulf of Mexico after exiting the Texas coast Thursday April 29. It dissipated on April 3 around Louisiana / Alabama.

This image shows a MCS/MCV entering the Gulf today April 4 off the Texas coast, and one also exiting the Gulf off Florida's east coast which entered the Gulf south of Louisiana in the AM hours on April 4 2012.

Here's a cool movie showing them All...