Southeast / Gulf coast - Strong storms possible Saturday March 31 2012

The biggest threat form any severe storms should they develop will be strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and hail.

Some possible strong to isolated severe storms today. Like yesterday, it depends on where you are. Noticed a feature late Thursday night as it came off the Texas coast. I thought, here we go and not even hurricane season yet. Looked real tropical the other day, now really more of an upper level disturbance. If it were a surface based low, we might be looking at some wild weather. Since, it is more of a meso convective system as it moved into the area and is now located in Mississippi. It will enhance showers to our south and central areas of Alabama and Georgia. We also have a trough moving down from the north which will affect areas in north Alabama and Georgia. We're stuck somewhat in the middle of these two features in central Alabama and Georgia, and they will provide us with some unsettled weather today.

Already seeing some showers and storms developing in central and south Alabama early this morning on radar [ 5:50 AM EDT 3/31/2012 ]. You can clearly see the MCV rotating along the gulf coast in Mississippi heading for the Mobile area in Alabama. Not seeing much progression to the north with this feature at this time. Expect it will slowly continue it's northeast movement and by this afternoon affect central and Southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

The storm prediction center has and area highlighted with a slight chance of severe storms today from central Alabama to the west in northern Louisiana, east Arkansas and southwest Tennessee.

It's possible later in the evening North and South Carolina will be affected by these storms.

EF-1 Tornado Troy (Pike County Alabama) March 23 2012

Troy airport, pic from an airport employee March 23 2012; Could be a rain-wrapped tornado in the distance..

Here's the official report [storm survey] from the US National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama

Rating: EF-1
Estimated Maximum Wind: 90-100 mph
Injuries/Fatalities: None
Damage Path Length: 1.7 miles
Maximum Path Width: 700 yards
Approximate Start Point/Time: 31.8379/-86.0439 at 926 am
Approximate End Point/Time: 31.8547/-86.0230 at 933 am

We have confirmed that the damage in Troy (Pike County) on the morning of March 23rd was due to a short-lived EF-1 tornado. The tornado was viewed by the observer at the Troy Municipal Airport, and fortunately dissipated before impacting the terminal. Check out the latest survey information here.

Wet and Stormy Southeast Friday and Saturday March 23-24 2012

Showers & Storms around Today Thursday ...

[ Radar removed, no longer relevant ]

Based on what I see at this time [2:23 PM EDT 3/22/2012] this is looking more and more like a rain event for the area. Looking at the possibility of 1 inch maybe a little more at this time in the local area. There will be thunderstorms around in the afternoon hours Friday through Saturday morning as the front closes in and moves through the area. The biggest threat at this time appears to be gusty winds with any of the stronger storms that may develop, and the possibility of small hail.

If anything were to become severe in the local area, my thinking is it will be Friday early evening around or after 4 PM EDT during the warmest part of the day. This is not to say that embedded strong storms that may develop within the approaching line of convection before or after this time might go severe. However my thinking is this is not likely to happen given the time frame the front will be pushing through the area.
Enforcing my thinking are marginal at best instabilities. The highest CAPE at the time mentioned above is 709 j/kg, Shear approaching 30kts and Helicity at 74.

Most if not all severe potential should remain south of the Columbus Phenix City Area. To the West and East of the Columbus and Phenix City, severe storms should also remain below this line in Alabama and Georgia based on current analysis. AGAIN, This is not to say that any strong embedded storm that may develop within the approaching line of convection could go severe.

Here's the outlook for Friday 8 AM thru Saturday 8 AM

The local area is on the fringe of the Slight Risk area.

This one shows the local area in a 5% area of seeing severe storms

In the above graphics we do not see the progression of the system through the overnight hours. That being said, during the overnight early morning hours Saturday, the local area will likely be included in the slight risk area and the 15% area of seeing severe storms. However during the overnight hours the threat should remain LOW.


Here's the outlook for Saturday 8 AM thru Sunday 8 AM

The local area is on the fringe of the Slight Risk area.

This one shows the local area in a 5% area of seeing severe storms

Images provided by the Strom Prediction Center

Thunderstorms and Showers for the Southeast - Week of March 19 thru 24 2012

My thinking based on current material:

A slow moving cold front currently impacting areas of Texas north into Iowa will slowly move east through the week. Right now [ 11:12 AM EDT 3/19/2012 ] storms are beginning to fire along the front with the potential for severe weather including damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. Severe thunderstorm and tornado watches will likely be issued at some point this afternoon for areas in Texas and points north.

Current Map March 19

The low pressure responsible for this front will according to models become a closed upper level low. Until this happens it will continue to pull colder air from the north and warm air from the south, leading to an unstable air mass. Once the low closes off it will continue to draw warm moist air from the gulf of Mexico region. This warm moist air combined with daytime heating will then provide the opportunity for strong storms to continue developing over the next few days through Wednesday as the front ever so slowly moves east through Louisiana. There is the potential for some of these storms to become severe where damaging winds, hail and even a tornado can not be ruled out.

Wednesday March 21

By Thursday morning the cold front will be in or around Western Mississippi with the upper level low remaining back in Oklahoma. At this time there is still the potential for strong to severe storms but to a lesser degree from previous days. During daytime heating some of these storms will have the potential to turn severe where again damaging winds, hail and even a tornado can not be ruled out.

Thursday March 22

By Friday morning the cold front will be in or around western Alabama. The closed upper level low will by then have moved slightly east into the Missouri area. To the south in Alabama areas of showers with possible storms developing during daytime heating will be the rule. Some of the stronger storms may have the potential to become severe. As this is 4 days away it is unclear how the storm system will continue to evolve so we'll have to watch this.

Friday March 23

Farther to the north in areas of Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio things may be a little more interesting during this same time. While the cold from continues to trail from Indiana south through Alabama, a weak warm front will have continued to push north. Also of interest in an occluded front trailing back to the upper level low back in Missouri. This will create and area for potential strong to severe storms as the cold air overtakes the warm sector. Also of note in this area will be the different wind profiles or wind direction in which a quick spin up tornado cant be ruled out.

By Saturday morning the cold front will be pushing through Georgia, western areas of North and South Carolina continuing north through the Virginia's. The upper level low at this time will be positioned in or around Indiana or Ohio. By this time most of the energy will have been lost and things should be relatively quite from North Carolina southward. To the North in Virginia it may still be a little unsettled with strong thunderstorms still possible.

Saturday March 24

All of the above is provided things remain true to current modeling and thinking. I'll continue watching this system throughout the week and should things change will post an update.


Here's a look at the potential rainfall associated with this system beginning Today March 19 thru Saturday morning March 24.

Dual Pol Radar Tornado Detection Capabilities

Radar upgrades to Dual-Polarization began in September 2011 and continue today. When this technology first appeared on the scene, I was eager to see what it was. I found the NWS Warning Decision Training Branch shortly after and downloaded the exercises and information and became accustomed with the capabilities of Dual Pol Radar.

While my initial thought was 'this is nothing special', later I would become more aware of what Dual Pol could and could not do. Of course being a civilian and a Non-Meteorologists [read amateur] not being privy to the technology in use by the professionals, I am still learning. However, even to this amateur I was aware after reading and viewing the material available, early tornado detection, or should I say 'earlier' tornado detection was not one of the major benefits. While tornado detection may be some what better than previous, it is still a long way until the professional can tell you without a doubt where a tornado will form before it touches down. That is not saying they dont have a very good idea, which is why many times a tornado warning is issued and yet no tornado touches down. They are now able to tell when a tornado is more violent than previous by detecting the debris ball signature.


To further enforce my thoughts, I found this interesting post by Jenni Laflin of the National Weather Service. She lay's out clearly what Dual-Polarization Radar can and can not do. Give it a read for better understanding ... Here's a snip ... as she mentions "The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service."

Dual Polarization Radar in the Media
Posted on March 16, 2012

Over the last few months, there have been several news articles floating around the meteorological community that glorify dual-polarization radar as the savior of tornado warning lead time, which is a serious misconception that needs to be addressed. I haven’t read all of these articles, but it seems that the root of this claim lies in dual-pol’s capability to more clearly detect tornadic debris via correlation coefficient. Unfortunately, when tornadic debris is detected this means the tornado is already on the ground, doing enough damage to loft sizable particles which fall into the Mie or geometric scattering regimes. By the time this signal is returned to the radar, processed at the RDA, and appears in AWIPS, we’re already seconds to minutes past tornado touchdown; read: negative lead time. Sure, a debris signature can provide more confidence that a damaging tornado is present, but waiting for that confirmation before issuing an initial tornado warning is not only unreasonable, it’s extremely dangerous. A wonderful series of training modules on the proper use of dual-pol radar is freely available from WDTB, and emphasizes many times over the potential peril in waiting for a debris signature before making a warning decision. Dual-pol radar does not – and can not – increase lead time for tornadoes.

Continue Reading here - http://stormscalemodeling.org/?p=156

Dexter Michigan tornado video

Shows progression of condensation funnel and strengthening

Raw Video: Tornado Moves Through Michigan

Several houses were damaged and at least two destroyed in one southeastern Michigan community after a tornado touched down Thursday. A heavy storm system of rain, hail and high winds that swept through Dexter. (March 15)




More information on the Dexter Michigan tornado here :

via myFOXdetroit.com- Tornado Destroys Homes In Dexter, Michigan, Other Areas Hit by Severe Weather

via ABC news- Tornadoes Rip Through Michigan, Destroy or Damage Over 100 Homes

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Some folks really scare me. Here's another shot of the same tornado ... shaking my head.

Summertime Thunderstorms in the Spring

Not a whole lot going on in the local area at this time, which is a good thing. We'll have plenty of time for severe weather as spring is just getting underway and summer is around the corner.

The setup for this week is reminiscent of summer, bringing a chance of scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms this week during the warmest time of the day. Not everyone will see this and Nothing severe is expected, but stronger thunderstorms sometimes provide a little excitement in the way of gusty winds, lightning and sometimes small hail. Here is a snip of what I expected this week, from Wednesday March 7 posted on Facebook

Towards the beginning of next week we might hear a rumble of thunder thrown into the mix. At this time, 'NO SEVERE' weather is expected. I'll keep an eye on this should things change.

I'm still not expecting any severe weather this week, but as we all know, sometimes it pops up unexpectedly in this type of setup where we have warm temperatures and plenty of moisture / humidity to work with.

Here's a graphic from the National Weather Service Peachtree City GA. showing the best area for thunderstorm development in Georgia today. You can also expect this across the Chattahoochee River in Alabama as well.

Speaking of Alabama, here's a graphic for today via the National Weather Service Birmingham Al.

Coronal Mass Ejection [CME] Earth impact Thursday morning

Aurora Borealis (northern lights) possible the next couple of nights.

The WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction model currently shows a near-direct Coronal Mass Ejection [CME] impact Thursday morning (U.S. time) from last nights massive X5.4-class flare which erupted at 7:02 p.m. EST (0002 March 7 GMT).

On the page at this link http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/cme-based/, The Sun is the yellow dot in the center and the Earth is the green dot on the right. It may take a moment to load but watch as the flare impacts earth on March 8 at 08:00 on the Latest CME-based model run.

Screenshot [view looking from above the solar system] : CME at 14:00 on March 8 2012 after impacting earth. The Sun is the yellow dot in the center and the Earth is the green dot on the right.

Here's a short video _

Major X5.4 Solar Flare + CME - Presentation (3/7/2012)

The second strongest solar flare of Cycle 24 in terms of X-Ray Flux, just peaked around Active Sunspot 1429. This major event measured X5.4 at 00:24 UTC and triggered a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced and is most likely Earth directed. This movie has various images and slide shows by SDO, STEREO Behind COR2 and EVE.

MAP March 2 2012 Storm Reports - NWS Storm / Tornado survey's

Map and Data provided by NOAA / National Weather Service / National Centers for Environmental Prediction / Storm Prediction Center

Google Maps Storm Reports for March 2nd. W=Wind, H=Hail, T=Tornado



Links to various National Weather Service Tornado and Storm Survey's March 1-3 2012 [ in no particular order ]

March 2nd, 2012 Storm Surveys National Weather Service Huntsville, AL

Tornadoes and Severe Weather of March 2, 2012 National Weather Service Birmingham, AL

March 2, 2012 Severe Weather Event National Weather Service Jackson, MS

Tornadoes Severe Thunderstorms in Georgia National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA Weather

Two EF1 Tornadoes Strike Geneva County Alabama March 1, 2012 ALSO Tornado in Lanier County rated EF-3 MARCH 3, 2012 National Weather Service Tallahassee, FL

March 2 2012 - East Tennessee, Southwest Virginia, and Southwest North Carolina Tornado Outbreak Surveyed Tracks National Weather Service Morristown, TN

EF1 Tornado in Cheatham County on March 2 ALSO EF2 Tornado in Jackson/Putnam/Overton Counties on March 2 National Weather Service Nashville, TN

March 2nd 2012 Severe Weather Outbreak National Weather Service Memphis, TN

Details on the March 2, 2012 Tornadoes National Weather Service Jackson, KY

Storm Survey Information from March 2nd Storms - Preliminary survey results from Southern Indiana and Trimble County in Kentucky National Weather Service Louisville, KY

EF2 tornado in Posey County in southwest Indiana National Weather Service Paducah, KY

Severe Weather of March 2, 2012 National Weather Service Central Illinois

March 2, 2012 Central Indiana Severe Weather National Weather Service Indianapolis, IN

March 2, 2012 Severe Weather / Tornadoes National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio

EF2 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN MECKLENBURG AND CABARRUS COUNTIES NC National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg

Tracking Southeast Storms March 2/3 2012 - Latest Graphics

For the remainder of the night, Follow me on Twitter @CataulaGaWX and Facebook at Cataula Ga Weather.

Automatic posting of Watches and Warnings are posted at my other Twitter and Facebook accounts - Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 7:30 PM EST today, valid through Saturday morning.

Changes in these graphics from this evening at 3:41 PM EST HIGHLIGHTED HIGH RISK AREA for SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE..HAS BEEN REMOVED..Other changes in COVERAGE areas of the Moderate, and Slight risk are indicated. These coverage areas are likely to continue shifting EAST in future Updates.


Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms - Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms - Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms - Red Area, HIGH RISK area likely to see TORNADOES - Fuchsia Area.

Tornado Outlook: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. - 2% risk of a Tornado - Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado - Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado - Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado - Red Area. Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds - Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds - Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds - Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail - Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail - Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail - Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

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Just for show...

Tornado Outbreak / Widespread Severe Weather Friday and Saturday March 2-3 2012

Please folks, take this threat seriously. Since 12 AM this morning there has already been 118 total storm reports. 17 of those have been Tornado reports, 18 high wind reports of winds 74 MPH or higher [ Category 1 Hurricane winds 74 - 95 mph ] and 83 Large hail reports 2 inches and larger.

This may be my last BLOG post on this. I will be monitoring the situation in the SOUTHEAST and posting Updates on Twitter @CataulaGaWX and Facebook at Cataula Ga Weather.
Automatic posting of Watches and Warnings are posted at my other Twitter and Facebook accounts - Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 2:56 PM EST today, valid through Saturday morning.
Changes in these graphics from this morning at 12:42 AM EST now HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK AREA for SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE....Other changes in COVERAGE areas of the Moderate, and Slight risk are also indicated. These coverage areas are likely to shift EAST in future Updates.

Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms - Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms - Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms - Red Area, HIGH RISK area likely to see TORNADOES - Fuchsia Area.

Tornado Outlook: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. - 2% risk of a Tornado - Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado - Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado - Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado - Red Area. 30% risk of a Tornado - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds - Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds - Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds - Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail - Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail - Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail - Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Widespread Severe Weather Expected Friday and Saturday March 2-3 2012

First and foremost ... The main threat will be north of the local area, but the possibility remains for strong to severe storms.

As in all of my posts of this nature, this is not meant to alarm you, but to give you a heads up as to what may be heading to your area. I try real hard not to overstate a situation like this. On the same note, I will not downplay a severe risk either. If what I tell you fails to materialize, that's a good thing.

Okay, on with the show....

Around 11 PM last night after looking very quickly at data I became more concerned with what I saw from earlier. So much so I posted this on Facebook so my Columbus Georgia area followers would be aware of what may happen with the coming storms.

Listen up ... I am becoming more concerned for the local area after taking a quick peek at some data. While I still believe at this time it will not be as bad as areas to our north [that's a given], I do believe it will become quite active around here. I will be looking at more data in the hours to come and will have a blog update tomorrow moring. Always be weather alert even if a tornado threat isn't as high where you live !!

Some of my followers became alarmed and this was my reply.

I do believe as mentioned things may get active around here. What that will bring is anyone's guess. Down here the risks will not be a widespread as in areas to our north. There is still a chance of seeing isolated severe storms down here, and from what I looked at earlier that chance has increased from what I looked at even earlier. The timing looks like the most severe will come through in the AM hours of Saturday morning providing what I looked at holds together. Before this time stronger storms are possible. My concern is not meant to say Tornadoes will be a sure thing in the local area, only that the chances are now enhanced from my earlier thinking

I stand by my earlier thoughts.

Possibly verifying my thoughts is this from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning

GULF STATES...

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT APPEARS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE-WISE AS WIND SHIFT ENCOUNTERS MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF STATES. SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO FAVOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD CERTAINLY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS.

Possibly enhancing this is something I mentioned yesterday, a secondary low forming south of the main low. You can see this second low clearly in this graphic on the Texas / Oklahoma border.

[ Graphic from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - National Weather Service ]

Also of concern along with this is a 'Dry Line' tailing south from this second low as seen on this surface map issued this morning at 2:29 AM EST. This may also provide enhancement to the system allowing more warm moist air to feed in providing fuel.

This is very serious situation yet to unfold for many areas of the Ohio Valley down to the Gulf coast and East to the Carolinas.


Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning

Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms Red Area.

Tornado Outlook: 2% risk of a Tornado Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado Red Area. Red Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

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I'll be getting some sleep and will be back monitoring the situation around 4 PM EST today.

As usual when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Watching the Storm setup for Friday 3/2 and Saturday 3/3/2012

Wow .. what a wild couple of days we've already had, and it's not officially Spring yet !!

Here's a look at the Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings issued from February 29 at 12 AM thru March 1 2012 at 4 AM.

The reason I show you the above is because we have a similar setup beginning Friday into the weekend. My thinking at this time is, the area with the greatest coverage of Warned storms in the image above will likely shift south of where it was. To include Arkansas in the mid-west. In the south and southeast .. Tennessee, North Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia into South and North Carolina as the system progresses to the east. Hopefully like this last system, the deep south will be spared.

It's really difficult to tell at this time where and what this system will do. The main feature with this evolving system hasn't been on land out west long enough for models to really get a grasp on it. As you may have guessed, some models show it stronger while others don't. Some show it slower, while others faster. Some even hint at a secondary low forming south of the main low. All in all we're going to have to wait a bit longer to really know where it will go. One thing we do know regardless of where it goes, it will produce more severe weather. Just as models differ on timing and placement, Bufkit model data varies with strength. Some models show it being a low cape high shear event, while others have high cape and modest shear.

So ... as with other systems, we'll know more at a later time. For now, here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 1:52 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning This will change over the next day as the maps are reissued.

Categorical Outlook : Risk of Thunderstorms Green Area, Slight Risk of Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Severe Storms Red Area.

Probabilistic Outlook : Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

Here is one section of wording that caught my eye while reading the outlook that accompanied the graphics above :

NUMEROUS SVR WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR STG TORNADOES FROM EITHER SUPERCELLS OR QLCS-VORTEX MECHANISMS. AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

Thats quite impressive !!
Translation : Numerous SEVERE wind events are possible along with potential for STRONG tornadoes from either supercells or Quasi Linear Convective Systems mechanisms. At least a few wind events AT OR ABOVE 65 KT [ 75.95 MPH ] and long-track significant tornadoes are possible. - For simplicity, A Quasi Linear Convective Systems is a bow echo capable of producing straight line winds.

Some folks may also have to deal with flooding issues. Here's the 3 day rainfall prediction valid thru Sunday from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

I'll have an update on this later; so check back !