The WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction model currently shows a near-direct Coronal Mass Ejection [CME] impact Thursday morning (U.S. time) from last nights massive X5.4-class flare which erupted at 7:02 p.m. EST (0002 March 7 GMT).
On the page at this link http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/cme-based/, The Sun is the yellow dot in the center and the Earth is the green dot on the right. It may take a moment to load but watch as the flare impacts earth on March 8 at 08:00 on the Latest CME-based model run.
Screenshot [view looking from above the solar system] : CME at 14:00 on March 8 2012 after impacting earth. The Sun is the yellow dot in the center and the Earth is the green dot on the right.
Here's a short video _
Major X5.4 Solar Flare + CME - Presentation (3/7/2012)
The second strongest solar flare of Cycle 24 in terms of X-Ray Flux, just peaked around Active Sunspot 1429. This major event measured X5.4 at 00:24 UTC and triggered a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced and is most likely Earth directed. This movie has various images and slide shows by SDO, STEREO Behind COR2 and EVE.
How far south do they think the lights will be seen?
ReplyDeleteFrom what I could find today [1:14 PM EST 3/8/2012], Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon. If weaker than anticipated maybe as far south as Michigan and Maine. There will be a full moon tonight as well making viewing more difficult.
ReplyDeleteThanks for stopping by. Sorry for not getting back to you sooner. ~ Ed