Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast - December 25 2012

Regardless of strength and track of the developing low, at a minimum this will be a 'damaging wind event'. On the extreme side it looks like there will be more than a couple tornadoes to deal with mainly in Central and Southern areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and possibly extreme Northern Florida.

If you've followed me long enough you know I won't / don't sugar coat what I see. I want you to enjoy your Christmas but I want you to be aware of the storms that will develop during the day Tuesday in Mississippi and Alabama continuing east through the afternoon into the early morning hours on Wednesday in Georgia. I will remind you that not everyone will experience severe weather and/or tornadoes.

Without getting into technical details [ weather speak ] here's the latest outlook from various National Weather Service office's around the southeast. Click image to enlarge.

Here's the outlook form the Storm Prediction Center on 12/23/12 AM. This outlook will be updated on Monday and Tuesday Morning and throughout the day Tuesday December 25 2012.

I'll be keeping an eye on this for further developments.


Technical details [ weather speak ]- 12z NAM and 12z GFS Severe parameters look strong for Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Northern Florida and a tad weaker [Lifted index and Cape] in East Georgia, still looks more than adequate for severe storms at this time.

Looking at latest data from the 12z NAM and 12z GFS, it appears the system has slowed somewhat. Nonetheless Wind Shear is still quite strong with a Jet Streak of 80+ knots on the 12z NAM and 90 knots on the 12z GFS in the areas mentioned above.

The lifted index on both models is -1 to -3 and approaching -5 on the NAM Late Wednesday night. Cape on the NAM is in the 1500 to 1750 Jkg Tuesday evening and around 750 on the GFS during the same time frame. I suspect a feedback issue here.

I expect backing winds will increase the threat of Tornadoes as time goes on. Also depending on cloud cover and rain or lack thereof ahead of the system the overall strength will increase due to heating allowed. Dewpoints will be in the high 50's to mid 60's and approaching the 70's along the gulf coast adding instability and will be transported north.

Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx


If you're local to the Columbus GA, Ft Benning GA, Phenix City Al area, you can also follow my posts on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Posted 1:20 PM EST 12/23/2012

Another round of Southeast Severe Weather for Wednesday / Thursday 12/19-12/20/2012

Moisture already beginning to be pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of this next system. This system is more potent that the one we saw earlier this week move across the south. It also looks to be faster.

Louisiana and Mississippi

Impacts will be felt in Louisiana beginning Wednesday Night moving quickly into Mississippi by Thursday morning. The greatest threat will be damaging winds of 60 mph plus that will accompany a squall line that is expected to develop. Due to strong wind shear and forcing to the surface, it is likely a few tornadoes will spin up quickly. These types of quick spin ups are hard to detect on radar and usually occur without Tornado Warnings being issued.

Outlook for Wednesday December 19 2012

Alabama and Georgia

It all comes down to timing as to what will happen in Alabama and Georgia. If it comes in later than anticipated I expect a more robust system with more widespread thunderstorms some that will turn severe. If it comes in earlier than anticipated I expect some thundershowers and a few thunderstorms. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE SEVERE WEATHER. Just as the storm system Yesterday, It didn't get bad until it was to our south and east.

At this time I expect the main line of stronger storms should they develop to enter the east Alabama area between 12 and 2 PM CST [Thursday] and West Georgia shortly after. This timing is subject to change in the next day or so. We'll just have to keep an eye on this and see what happens. Right now our area is highlighted just as it was yesterday for a 'slight risk' of stronger thunderstorms.

Outlook for Thursday December 20 2012

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Southeast Severe Weather December 16 2012 - Outlook for severe 12-19 / 12-20-12

Rain / Storms still on track. As mentioned yesterday - "On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday." Main threat still continues to be Damaging winds with stronger storms should they develop. However, due to the setup a LOW threat of a tornado is still present. Not everyone will see severe weather or a tornado. [ Note: Another round of storms expected around Wednesday / Thursday - See below graphic ]

Here's what the SPC has outlined for today into Monday Morning at this time...

And Monday morning thru Tuesday Morning at this time...

Here's the areas being watched at this time [Sunday afternoon] for possible severe weather on Wednesday Day 4 and Thursday Day 5. At this time the setup is looking interesting and if models remain consistent severe storms should develop in or around these areas.

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Possibility of Southeast Severe Weather Saturday thru Monday - December 15 2012

It seems our Second Severe Season has arrived albeit a bit late. Normally the fall severe weather begins in Mid to late November in the southeast. November this year was quite with the exception of a potential severe weather event in the southeast that never materialized during the Nov. 11^th thru 13^th time frame. If you were around this past week you may recall the Storms and Tornadoes in the Southeast on December 10 2012. on with the show ...

This coming bout of potential Severe weather will begin Late Saturday in the ARK-LA-MISS area shifting east with time into Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida. There remains uncertainty with the system as to timing and how strong storms may become due to how strong the upper level low pressure expected to develop in the northern tiers of this region becomes. The stronger the ULL, the more moisture it will pull north from the Gulf of Mexico into an already somewhat unstable air mass closer to the coast and extending northward. Regardless, am expecting some strong storms with isolated severe at this time throughout the region beginning today thru Monday again spreading west to east. Right now [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] confidence is somewhat LOW to the severe side based on how much cloud cover and rain occurs ahead of the frontal system in the warm sector.

Threats with this system will be in the form of Isolated strong to severe storms with the potential for a few Tornadoes with stronger storms possible. While the threat of tornadoes looks low at this time, a couple can't be entirely ruled out due to increasing shear layer to layer which may became surface based over time supporting Bowing Line areas capable of Damaging Straight Line winds and Isolated Supercells which may spawn a Tornado. There is also a threat of Flash Flooding in areas with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. As always .. not everyone will experience severe storms.

Today through Tomorrow morning the main threat will be the possibility of Damaging winds associated with strong thunderstorms that may develop generally in the afternoon and evening hours continuing through the overnight. ... On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday. On Sunday the Storm Prediction Center at this time [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] has an area highlighted for an elevated risk for strong to severe storms. We'll see how this area looks later today for possible increase in severity or even a decrease. For now here is what they have for Sunday Morning through Monday Morning. [click image to embiggen]

Here's the anticipated Rain Amounts Today through Tuesday Morning

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Storm Reports - Southeast Severe Weather on December 10 2012

See Side Note at bottom

Storm and Tornado reports from Monday's Severe Weather event December 10 2012

Here's the lead up to this event posted Monday 12/10/12

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Storm Warnings / Reports issued

Storm report Links [ Links open in New tab / window ]

Tornado Damage on December 10th, 2012 Birmingham (Jefferson) EF-1 Tornado via National Weather Service Birmingham, AL

Tornadic Debris Signature - 0.5 degree correlation coefficient (CC) of Dual Pol from KBMX. There are 3 images in this loop. Notice the "explosion" of CC just east of I-65 on the last two images. This is called a Tornadic Debris Signature or TDS.

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Severe Weather Event December 10, 2012 via National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge Louisiana

Walthall County Louisiana Tornado - KLIX Storm Relative Velocity at maximum intensity at 816 AM CST 12/10/2012

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December 9-10, 2012 Tornadoes Mississippi via National Weather Service Jackson, MS

Marion County Tornado - These images from the Brandon, MS doppler radar show the tornadic thunderstorm at 8:20 am as the tornado passed near Columbia. The image on the left shows 0.5° base reflectivity data, and the image on the right shows 0.5° storm relative velocity data.

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Side note : An active weather pattern continues next week and the following week. Next week may bring some interesting winter weather to the deep southeast per current models or severe storms depending where you're at. Still a lot of uncertainty in this forecast as models continue to flip flop on final outcome. Computer models should have a better idea this weekend and I'll post an update then. ~ Ed

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Update - Southeast Severe Weather Outlook - 8 AM EST 12/10/12

Severe storms began to fire up in Alabama and Mississippi around 5 AM EST and continue in Mississippi at this time 8:24 AM EST 12/10/2012.

The outlook for the late morning, early afternoon remains about the same as my earlier report. The main threat is strong damaging winds associated with the line of showers and storms ahead of the cold front currently in Mississippi. A 'tornado or two can't be ruled out later as numerous Tornado warnings have been issued today. The severe storms at this time are in South central Mississippi and South east Louisiana.

Throughout the remainder of the day this line of storms 'should weaken' as it pushes east into central and south Alabama and continues into Central and south Georgia. As stated, it 'should weaken' but bears keeping an eye on as it won't take much heating for instability to increase later and combined with adequate wind shear strong storms may develop once again. While my thinking is it will weaken and severe storms will be limited, a few isolated strong storms are possible given the moist unstable environment.

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Severe Weather Possible in Southeast Today and Tonight - October 17 2012

At this time the greatest threat will be Damaging winds, although a few Tornadoes can't be entirely ruled out as this system evolves. Large damaging hail may also be possible with stronger storms.

Severe weather is expected to develop later this evening and continue through the overnight for some areas in the deep south. Storms will begin late this afternoon in areas of Southern Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana continuing southeast into Northeast Louisiana and Northwest Mississippi this evening. By midnight the storms will be across Mississippi from Northeast to Southwest and beginning to move into Northwest Alabama. In the early morning hours weakening is expected as they continue to push through Alabama into Georgia. While weakening is expected they will still need to be watched.

Click Image to Enlarge

During the early evolution of this, storms should be more individual in the form of possible Supercells evolving later into a concentrated line of storms likely forming a squall line where damaging winds will be present. As always not everyone will experience severe storms but conditions will be favorable for them to develop at any time in and around the area. Make sure you continue to monitor this, and make sure your weather radio is in working order.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Twitter. You can follow along here @CataulaGaWX

Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama, Florida Panhandle on Monday 10/01/2012

Already today [ Sunday 9/30/12 ] there have been 'isolated tornadoes' in Mississippi with damage reported and the threat may continue to increase through this evening for areas in Southeast Louisiana, Southern and Central Mississippi and West Central / Southwest Alabama. Likely the threat of strong storms will continue through the overnight into Monday morning as well.

Looks like at this time the severe threat on Monday will be greatest in the Afternoon through late evening into the early overnight if anything comes from it. Possibility of strong storms Monday into Tuesday as well. At the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger thunderstorms. This is not a widespread threat. Isolated severe only. Not everyone will experience serve weather.

Wind shear will be adequate to support rotation with some of the stronger storms as they move from West to East through the area Monday through Monday night and possibly Tuesday morning. While the threat for Tornadoes is low, the threat is there. Heavy rain could also be a problem causing Flash Flooding for some due to abundant moisture being pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico over the same areas.


Here's the current Storm outlook issued 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012. This will likely shift north in updates issued later as the Low and adjacent fronts continue pushing East and North.

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Statement from Storm Prediction Center 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ERN AL AND WRN GA MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45 KT. IN ADDITION...LCL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 500 METERS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE AL AND NW GA INTO SE TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE 9:45 AM 9/17/2012 - Georgia, Alabama, Florida Panhandle, Mississippi

The SPC has shifted the area of potentially Severe Storms and Isolated Tornadoes for Today through late this Monday evening through the overnight into Tuesday morning from previously [see below - Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama and Florida Panhandle - Monday 9/17/2012]. It now includes West Central Georgia through East Central and South Alabama, the Western Florida Panhandle and Southeast Mississippi.

The threats remain unchanged : Isolated Tornadoes, Strong to Severe Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and Heavy rain at times.

Not everyone will see severe weather.

Latest graphics issued 9 AM EDT

Click Image to Enlarge

Radar
Southeast



Southern Mississippi Valley



As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

#Isaac still expected to become #Hurricane make #Landfall today - August 28 2012

Tropical storm Isaac is still expected to become a minimal hurricane before making landfall along the Gulf coast in the Louisiana Mississippi Alabama area.

Right now Isaac is still a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph and continues moving to the Northwest at 12 mph. At 4:00 am CDT Isaac was about 125 miles south-southeast of the Mississippi River and about 205 miles south-southeast of Biloxi Mississippi. Isaac is expected to strengthen in the hours before landfall and will as mentioned be a minimal hurricane with anticipated winds of maximum 85 mph, there will be higher gusts. There will likely be a few Tornadoes as well.

The Eyewall of Isaac this morning..

Isaac is large and his winds will be felt before the center makes landfall.tropical storm force winds extend outward of 205 miles for Isaac's center. Heavy rains and high storm surge will also become problematic causing flooding with storm surge of:

6-12 FEET in Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi
4-8 FEET in Alabama
3-6 FEET in South Central Louisiana
3-6 FEET in Florida Panhandle
1-3 FEET in Florida west coast including Apalachee Bay

Rainfall Potential for the area:

You can find all the information on Isaac including Graphics.. and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Tropical Storm Isaac soon to be a Hurricane - 10:30 AM EDT 8/25/12

Isaac now has winds of 65 MPH with higher gusts and is now moving West-Northwest at 20 MPH. Currently located at 23.5 North 80.0 West or about 135 Miles East-Southeast of Key West Florida and 155 Miles East of Havana Cuba. Central pressure now 995 MB. Isaac is expected to be or Near Hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Keys sometime today. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward 205 miles from Isaac's Center.

Isaac will impact the Florida Keys in the near term and is expected to strengthen as he continues tracking northwest into the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The current track of Isaac has shifted to the West at this time from previously and will shift [flip flop] until landfall which is still uncertain somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Once well into the Gulf of Mexico, computer models will get a better handle on Isaac and withing the next day or so we should will have a much better idea of where he is headed.

Radar from Key West Florida 10:16 AM EDT

* A Hurricane 'Warning' is in effect for the Florida Keys, Dry Tortunas, the West coast of FL from Bonita Beach Southward to Ocean Reef, Florida Bay and the Andros Islands in the Bahamas. * A Hurricane 'Watch' is in effect for the FL East coast from Golden Beach Southward to Ocean Reef, the Mouth of the Mississippi River 'NOT INCLUDING METRO NEW ORLEANS' to Indian Pass Florida.

You can find all the information on Isaac including Graphics on the Tropical Weather Page here .. and more ..

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available



You can find myself along with many others posting important information which is being constantly updated here - For rapid updates on Tropical Storm Isaac From 20 forecasters Covering 9 states along with professional and tropical meteorologist http://www.facebook.com/fftropicalzone , So hit the link and while you're there give the page a like.

Severe Weather Potential Friday July 20 2012

The severe threat will primarily be damaging winds, along with frequent to continuous lightning heavy rainfall / downpours which may cause flooding and hail.

At this time 6:10 AM EDT 7/20/2012 the main feature with this system has entered North Alabama and Georgia moving in a south southeast direction. This Mesoscale Convective System is already responsible for a couple Special Weather Statements being issued at this early hour where the primary threat has been winds of 40 to 50 MPH and pea sized hail in North Alabama and Georgia.

This activity will continue for much of the day and may increase during daytime heating. The area affected is generally the same as yesterday that being, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, North and South Carolina and Tennessee during early morning. Whether or not the storms will intensify later depends greatly on how much the area destabilizes and the possible interaction with outflow boundaries being pushed south southeast ahead of the main complex.

Here's today's early morning outlook from the Storm Prediction Center highlighting the Slight Risk of Severe Storms area. The next scheduled update from The SPC is expected around 9 AM EDT. At that time I will also post an update if warranted. Click Image to Enlarge

Previous Post concerning this posted July 19 at 2:45 PM EDT - Severe Weather Potential Friday July 20 2012 - Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee

Severe Weather Potential Friday July 20 2012 - Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee

This is just a heads up.

While areas in the south / southeast have experienced afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the past days, Friday possibly into Saturday seems to be heading for a more organized threat.

The severe threat will be damaging winds and hail, along with frequent to continuous lightning and heavy rain / downpours.

The timing will be dependent on the arrival of a cold front which is expected to move into the southern states sometime Friday. The arrival of the cold front is uncertain at this time 2:25 PM EDT 7/19/2012. Depending on the arrival time and how much the atmosphere can heat up during the day will be the determining factor on the strength of the potential severe storms.

Also compounding this setup is the coverage area where the more vigorous storms will be. This is also uncertain at this time. The area could expand south and east. This is something we'll have to watch.

We'll know more on this sometime tonight or at the latest tomorrow morning.

Tropical Storm #Debby - Track has changed considerably - June 24 2012

It doesn't look as if Debby will be heading west as many thought earlier. Debby is now expected to impact areas of the Florida Panhandle to the Big Bend area. While Debby's track STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN, focus has now shifted to the coastal areas of the southeast. In my post on Thursday, June 21, 2012 Tropical Disturbance Gulf of Mexico, Possible Tropical Storm - June 23-26, I mentioned that Debby would likely impact areas of Florida. I preferred this area over a Texas landfall.

Areas along the Panhandle of Florida, the Big Bend area and south along the west Coast should remain EXTRA cautious due to the proximity of Debby and her uncertain forecast. The Forecast track of Debby remains Highly uncertain at this time and all residents along the coastal area are urged to remain aware of the situation.

Tropical Storm Warnings Continue for Areas from the Mississippi / Alabama State line EASTWARD to the Suwanne River in Florida.

Tropical Storm WATCHES have been extended SOUTHWARD along the WEST COAST of FLORIDA to ENGLEWOOD.

Tropical Storm Warnings for Louisiana have been discontinued at this time.
Tropical Storm Warnings from the Mouth of the Pearl River, West to Morgan City have been discontinued.


At this time Debby continues to move ever so slowly to the Northeast at 3 MPH. Sustained winds are Still around 60 MPH with higher gusts in and around the area. Tropical Storm Force winds Extend outwards up to 200 Miles from Debby, whose center is now located at 28.4N 85.8W, or about 205 Miles East Southeast of the Mississippi River, and /or 100 Miles South Southwest of the Apalachicola River.

Debby is not expected to move much in the next day or so. Debby will continue to bring heavy and copious amounts of rain to Florida, South Georgia and areas of South Alabama.
Many Gulf coastal areas of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana are under Flash Flood Watches and Flood Watches. Storm Surge may also become a hazard during this time.

Here is the latest possible track Debby will take as of 5 PM EDT June 24 2012.

You can find more information on Tropical Storm Debby on the Tropical Weather Page where Information and Graphics update automatically when changes are issued.

You can also find me on Twitter @cataulagawx .. and .. Facebook Cataula GA Weather. I share weather related information there as well.

I will be posting information concerning Tropical Storm Debby on Twitter and Facebook through the overnight Sunday and morning hours Monday.

Storms on track,Mississippi,Alabama and Georgia June 4 2012

7:04 AM 6/4/2012


As mentioned yesterday Sunday, June 3, 2012, storms will be impacting the southeast today. Some areas saw severe storms yesterday, including Tornadoes.

At this time there is a Mesoscale Convective System ongoing in North Mississippi and Alabama. This MCS will continue moving south / southeast through the morning hours. This storm complex is generating severe storms producing damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH, hail to 1.5 inches, dangerous frequent lightning and heavy rain. The individual cells embedded within this complex are moving southeast at a rapid pace of between 45 and 70 MPH. There is also another one behind this one that may impact the same areas during the overnight and into Tuesday June 5.

The tornado threat remains low at this time, but 1 or 2 can not be entirely ruled out due to the nature of the storm system. The main threat will remain strong damaging winds and hail. Instability increases this afternoon where once aging severe weather is expected.

At this time the Storms Prediction Center has large areas in Alabama and Georgia highlighted in a 'slight risk' area. Meaning a better chance of seeing thunderstorms than not.

The SPC also has the same areas from the graphic above highlighted for strong winds and hail.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

There are no severe thunderstorm watches or Tornado watches in effect at this time. This is likely to change at some point this morning due to the evolving cluster of storms. There is a Mesoscale Discussion, which is basically outlining the possibility of some type of Weather Watch being issued. At 6:33 PM EDT, this probability is at 60%. The highlighted area in the graphic is the general area the watch will be issued for.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

See the lead up post on this event, posted on Sunday, June 3, 2012 at 10:49 AM : Severe Storms possible in Georgia and Alabama June 4/5 2012

Storm reports on May 31 2012 in Alabama and Georgia

But first ...

While the weather did not become as active as I had anticipated, there were still storm damage reports. As I mentioned in my previous post, I did expect some storms to fire up in Alabama, and they did. As they moved east towards the local area in Georgia, the atmosphere became more stable, limiting their strength. I also mentioned this may be a possibility in my previous post. However, once the shortwave that was responsible for thee storms moved through the area, they regenerated somewhat and did bring more storms to Georgia.

Today I still expect some storms, possibly severe, to pop up in Georgia as the cold front pushes through. I do believe the eastern areas of the state will see the best chance of seeing severe storms, but I wouldn't completely rule one out state wide. The weather is like a women, you never know what shes capable of. [No offense to the ladies out there :)]

While there were no reported Tornadoes in Alabama or Georgia, or tornado warnings issued, there were a couple tornado warnings to our west in Mississippi. SO far no confirmation on if these tornado warned storms produced tornadoes or not.

Here's a graphic showing the storms reports on May 31 2012. The report generated was from 12:00 AM Thursday May 31 thru Friday morning June 1 2012 12:30 AM.

Here's the text of the storm reports in Alabama and Georgia.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
909 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

0413 PM  TSTM WND GST  2 NW MONTGOMERY  32.38N 86.31W
05/31/2012  M58 MPH  MONTGOMERY AL  BROADCAST MEDIA
ON RSA CAMERA IN DOWNTOWN MONTGOMERY.

0418 PM  TSTM WND DMG  MONTGOMERY  32.35N 86.28W
05/31/2012 MONTGOMERY AL   BROADCAST MEDIA
TREES REPORTED DOWN IN MULTIPLE NEIGHBORHOODS ACROSS MONTGOMERY.

0630 PM  TSTM WND DMG  6 SSE YORK  32.42N 88.27W
05/31/2012  SUMTER AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

+++++

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1125 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

0508 PM  TSTM WND DMG  1 SE LOUISVILLE  32.99N 82.40W
05/31/2012  JEFFERSON GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES ALONG MOORE STREET.

0510 PM  TSTM WND DMG  LOUISVILLE  33.00N 82.41W
05/31/2012 JEFFERSON GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN BLOCKING U.S. HWY 1.

0517 PM   HAIL  ELLIJAY  34.69N 84.48W
05/31/2012  E0.75 INCH  GILMER GA   EMERGENCY MNGR
EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL ON ZEBLIN ROAD.

0750 PM  TSTM WND DMG  THOMASTON  32.89N 84.33W
05/31/2012  UPSON GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTS 5 TREES DOWN IN THE THOMASTON AREA.

0800 PM  TSTM WND DMG  MOLENA  33.01N 84.50W
05/31/2012  PIKE GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTS 2 TREES DOWN IN THE MOLENA AREA.

0815 PM  TSTM WND DMG  6 W ZEBULON  33.09N 84.44W
05/31/2012  PIKE GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTS 1 TREE DOWN IN CONCORD.

0828 PM  TSTM WND DMG  EATONTON  33.33N 83.39W
05/31/2012  PUTNAM GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED SEVERAL TREES AND A FEW POWER LINES DOWN IN 
THE CITY OF EATONTON.

0903 PM  TSTM WND DMG  3 W SHOULDERBONE  33.34N 83.13W
05/31/2012  HANCOCK GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN NEAR THE PUTNAM-HANCOCK COUNTY LINE.

0918 PM  TSTM WND DMG  ETHRIDGE   33.16N 83.44W
05/31/2012  JONES GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN IN THE ETHRIDGE AREA.

0923 PM  TSTM WND DMG  WHITE PLAINS  33.47N 83.04W
05/31/2012  GREENE  GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN IN THE WHITE PLAINS AREA.

Storm Reports Across the Southeast April 5/6 2012 - Map

While the local area was spared from severe weather once again, other areas in the southeast weren't as lucky.

In Georgia Hail was reported in many areas. The largest being 1 inch. Wind damage was also reported, but no estimated speed was given in reports. Locally [ Columbus GA ] there was a report of Pea Size Hail and No wind damage that I'm aware of in the area.

In Alabama like most areas reporting severe weather in the Southeast, Hail was the most reported. The largest Hail reported in Alabama was 1.75 inches. There were a few wind reports in Alabama downing trees, with the strongest being estimated at 67 MPH. Alabama also had reports of flash flooding in the north and a couple reports of Lightning damage.

Other areas in the southeast reported severe weather as well. South Carolina, North Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas and Tennessee. All reported Hail and Wind, with a Funnel cloud reported in Louisiana and an unconfirmed report of a Tornado in the bootheel of Missouri and another Tornado being reported numerous times in Missouri as well.

Here's a map of storm reports April 5 12Am thru April 6 3AM. Most reports were on April 5 2012.

Here's another map showing Hail reports of 2 inches or larger and Winds 65KT [74.8 MPH] or stronger and Tornado reports April 5 2012.

You can see my posts leading up to this event :

Tuesday, April 3, 2012 - Georgia / Alabama Potential Severe Storms Weds/Thurs April 4/5 2012

Wednesday, April 4, 2012 - Alabama / Georgia Severe potential LOW Thurs/Fri April 5/6 2012

3:30 AM Thursday, April 5, 2012 - Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012

10:23 AM Thursday, April 5, 2012 - Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012 - Updated Graphics

Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012 - Updated Graphics

Greatest overall threat remains Damaging Large Hail and Strong Damaging Wind for much of the Southeast.

The Storm Prediction Center has updated their graphics. The updates include adding a portion of Mississippi to the Slight Risk area, and a small portion of Central Florida in a 5% Tornado risk area. Most of the Southeast continues to be in the slight risk area of severe thunderstorms and the 2% risk area of seeing a tornado.

The biggest changes from earlier this morning are the Wind and Hail risk areas which were at 15%.

SPC 9 AM EDT Day 1 Outlook increases Damaging Wind Prob to 30% All of Georgia, Much of Alabama and Florida panhandle.
SPC 9 AM EDT Day 1 Outlook increases Large Hail Prob to 30% for Areas in North/Central Georgia, Alabama , NE Mississippi. and SE Tennessee.

You can see the previous outlook on the blog here

Updated Graphics via the Storm Prediction Center

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along there :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012

Still expecting some thunderstorms to meet or exceed severe criteria.

As mentioned yesterday the greatest overall threats still remain Hail, gusty wind and frequent lightning with any of the stronger storms. I will now include a small risk of a Tornado or two somewhere in the southeast as mentioned on April 3rd.

While the overall categorical outlook remains unchanged form yesterday which included much of the southeast from The Gulf coast north through Central Louisiana, north into Missouri and then east to a small area in south Illinois, through the southern half of Kentucky and a small area in southwest Virginia, continuing east through North Carolina to the east coast, the Slight Risk of severe storms has shifted farther north and west.

The Slight risk area yesterday April 4th included Southeast Mississippi into South Alabama a portion of South Georgia and Much of Florida. It NOW covers ALL of Georgia and Alabama, much of Florida and South Carolina, Most of Central Mississippi north and south towards Alabama, Much of Tennessee and a small area in Southwest North Carolina.

I have reinserted a small Tornado threat for the southeast due to the fact the Storm Prediction Center has now included it in the updated graphics as of 2:00 AM EDT 4/5/2012. The areas mentioned above in the 'slight risk area' are also covered by this 2% tornado probability area.

As mentioned above, the greatest threats form any severe storms that may develop will come from Hail and Gusty winds. The areas mentioned above covered by the categorical outlook [in Green] are included in the risk areas for hail and wind.

The overall Hail risk is 5% with an area of 15% risk covering the 'slight risk areas' mentioned above [in yellow].

The overall Wind risk is 5% with an area of 15% risk covering the 'slight risk areas' mentioned above [in yellow].

Here are expected rain amounts April 5 through April 10..

To reiterate ... greatest threats will be Hail and Gusty winds from any strong thunderstorm that may develop and a small chance of a Tornado.


As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along there :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


P.S. : I see Tornado watches have been issued [at 1:55 AM EDT] for areas in Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi until 9 AM CDT. I expect this will be expanded or shifted east as the day goes on.

Southeast / Gulf coast - Strong storms possible Saturday March 31 2012

The biggest threat form any severe storms should they develop will be strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and hail.

Some possible strong to isolated severe storms today. Like yesterday, it depends on where you are. Noticed a feature late Thursday night as it came off the Texas coast. I thought, here we go and not even hurricane season yet. Looked real tropical the other day, now really more of an upper level disturbance. If it were a surface based low, we might be looking at some wild weather. Since, it is more of a meso convective system as it moved into the area and is now located in Mississippi. It will enhance showers to our south and central areas of Alabama and Georgia. We also have a trough moving down from the north which will affect areas in north Alabama and Georgia. We're stuck somewhat in the middle of these two features in central Alabama and Georgia, and they will provide us with some unsettled weather today.

Already seeing some showers and storms developing in central and south Alabama early this morning on radar [ 5:50 AM EDT 3/31/2012 ]. You can clearly see the MCV rotating along the gulf coast in Mississippi heading for the Mobile area in Alabama. Not seeing much progression to the north with this feature at this time. Expect it will slowly continue it's northeast movement and by this afternoon affect central and Southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

The storm prediction center has and area highlighted with a slight chance of severe storms today from central Alabama to the west in northern Louisiana, east Arkansas and southwest Tennessee.

It's possible later in the evening North and South Carolina will be affected by these storms.