#Snow Georgia / Alabama Saturday February 16 2013 #gawx #alwx

As I have been mentioning most of this week on my Facebook page [ www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather ], there may be snow in the area. This morning my thinking has not changed. In FACT .. the National Weather Service in Peachtree city is now coming on board toward my thinking from past days. They at this time, 5 AM EST Friday February 15 2013 mention a bullseye of Snow of OVER 1 inch, south of Columbus by 1 PM EST Saturday afternoon. They also say less than 1 inch for areas between Atlanta and Columbus around 10 AM EST Saturday Morning. Timing and placement of this is not exact, so I will be monitoring things to narrow it down and posting it on Facebook and tweeting [ twitter.com/cataulagawx ] it when it snows at my location.. Right now I would say between 6 AM and 12 PM Saturday.

As mentioned above and from looking at data, there is indeed a sweet spot or bullseye in central Georgia. Columbus looks to get around 1 inch, and Macon about 2 inches if numerical data from the NAM-06z run is correct.




Athens Georgia should get under 1 inch and Atlanta just over a Tenth of an inch. There isn't much to go around but there could be more or less depending on how things set up and where. It remains to be seen if snow will accumulate on the ground, it will on cars and other surfaces.

Here's a few images showing 06z NAM profiles and Skew-t's for Columbus, Macon, Athens and Atlanta Georgia.










I first mentiond this on Facebook, on February 8 2013 and on this blog February 11 2013 here Possible Snow for Georgia and Alabama February 16/17

Possible #Snow for #Georgia and #Alabama February 16/17 - #gawx #alwx

At this time models show the potential yet again for snow in the south. Looking at things, this is the best I've seen since winter began. Depending on where the Low pressure develops and where it tracks will have a lot to say in this. With that said, this is not a forecast yet, but only an outlook. 'Right now' it looks like central Alabama and Georgia will see more in the way of snow than areas to the north. Totals range from a dusting to a Half inch in northern areas to an Inch and a half for central areas. Even as far south as Valdosta GA could see about an inch and Mobile Al seeing a dusting.

Here is one of the tools I use to help me figure out what is going on with the weather, whether it be severe storms or winter weather. As simply as I can explain, here's what I see for winter weather this weekend that I mentioned last week. For those that don't care to read all this, at this time models are back on track showing snow in and around our area this coming weekend February 16/17.

SOUNDING/SKEW-T

Red Shows Temperature
Green Shows dewpoint
Yellow shows area of Snow Growth
Blue shows Icing

The scale across the bottom is the temperature scale in Celsius. The 0 [zero] is 32F or freezing. What all this shows is, If there were moisture available during the time shown, in this case around 6 PM Saturday, it would likely fall as Snow. Models do show moisture being available during this time, at this time.

So, what the current GFS sounding is showing is Rain beginning around 12 PM Saturday, changing to Snow around 6 PM Saturday and continuing until about 9 PM. Total accumulation for the local area at this time is about 1 and a half inches at a 10 to 1 ratio , which means for every inch of liquid water, there would be 10 inches of snow. So there's not much here, but hopefully enough to give us a little snow.

Severe weather still on track for Georgia and Alabama Wednesday JAN 30 #gawx #alwx

This was written for my local area and posted on my Facebook page Cataula Georgia Weather. The local area is Columbus and Fort Benning Georgia and Phenix City Alabama. You can use this information for areas anywhere in East Alabama and West Georgia as the system coming through will cover a large area. On with the show....

The exact time is still in question depending on which model you go by and I will continue to look at them for agreement. Still looking like instabilities will increase sometime after 8:00 AM EST Wednesday morning. Regardless of timing, before the main area comes through we may see some thunderstorms in the area some which could be severe with damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

The winds will be gusty during this time 20 to 25 mph and will increase as the expected line of stronger storms gets closer and moves through the area to about 40 mph. Gusty winds like this can cause damage without being associated with severe storms. Stronger winds are likely in any severe storm. I'll also keep a watch for any discrete / individual storm cells developing out in front of the main line. These may become strong enough to bring severe weather to the area before the main line. These type of individual storm cells may also be capable of spawning tornadoes. The greatest threat at this time remains unchanged from my previous posts .. Strong to severe 'damaging winds' are likely and the possibility of a tornado or two. As always, 'not everyone will see severe storms and or tornadoes'.

I'll be looking at this closely over the coming hours for any changes that may increase the severity of the storms. Right now I do have one concern. As the trough approaches that will be bring the storms to the area, it looks to go from a positive tilt to a neutral tilt. This will increase the wind speeds / shear in both the upper and lower levels. At this time the winds are more than adequate for a damaging wind event and a couple tornadoes. Any increase would make this a larger threat. If the trough should go negatively tilted, the wind and shear would again increase even more. This is something that will need to be monitored and I will be doing just that. I'll have another update Wednesday Morning or sooner is needed. ~ ED

As always, find me on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather and Twitter before and when the storms strike. I'm there all the time and don't always have time to update the blog here ;) Follow @Cataulagawx

Tropical Storm #Isaac - Georgia-Alabama-Florida Panhandle

First and foremost ... No one knows where this storm is going or what the strength will be at this time. Computer Models continue to flip flop with every run. What we are seeing are best guess tracks and wind speeds.

Now with that said .. at this time there is better than a 50% chance this storm which is likely to become a Hurricane and will impact the Florida Panhandle. Where exactly is to be determined.

Current information has Isaac as a Category 1 Hurricane at landfall. It is possible Isaac could be a category 2 hurricane at landfall but this is uncertain. Regardless of this, Isaac is a large storm as far as overall size. His winds will be felt miles from the center. At this time Tropical storm force winds [ minimum 39 miles per hour ] extend out from the center over 200 miles. In other words .. If Isaac were to make landfall in Pensacola Florida his tropical storm winds will be felt in central Alabama and Georgia. These kind of winds can cause damage as well as bringing down trees across power lines. Heavy rain is also expected which will cause flooding as well. There is also a threat for Tornadoes with any land falling Hurricane.

I am not one to hype up a storm, It is best though that folks in Florida, Georgia and Alabama prepare for what may be coming.

You can find all the information on the Tropical Weather Page here ..

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available


I will likely not have much time to post here in the days to come. However .. you can find myself along with many others posting important information which is being constantly updated here - For rapid updates on Tropical Storm Isaac From 20 forecasters Covering 9 states along with professional and tropical meteorologist http://www.facebook.com/fftropicalzone , So hit the link and while you're there give the page a like.

We have been covering this storm since the beginning well before others and we will be covering Isaac until the end.

Georgia / Alabama - Columbus GA / Phenix City Al - Weather 4/16/- 4/17 2012

Quick weather update because I know some are concerned after what happened out west this weekend during the severe weather outbreak.

The weather locally in West central Georgia and East central Alabama will be Nothing like what we saw out west this weekend.

Like I mentioned a few days ago on Facebook, Thunderstorms / thundershowers some which 'could' turn severe. Where that may happen and when, no one knows.

Things should pick up later tonight April 16 and showers / thunderstorms should continue through a good portion of tomorrow April 17. There is some instability which means a strong storm is possible. Stronger storms later could produce some small hail and gusty winds.

Currently [4:00 PM EDT / 3:00 PM CDT - 4/16/2012] There are NO Watches or Warnings for the area.

Here's the local radar.

RADAR IMAGE REMOVED, NO LONGER PERTINENT

You can see more radar's covering the local area and Southeast on the GA / AL Local Radar Page

Alabama / Georgia Severe potential LOW Thurs/Fri April 5/6 2012

Not expecting any widespread severe weather in the local Columbus GA / Phenix City Al area. Showers and thunderstorms will be the rule, with some of them isolated in nature possibly approaching severe criteria. No one can pinpoint if this will happen or where should it. Still main threats will be Strong gusty winds, hail and frequent lightning.

Appears at this time the stronger storms will be at or near approaching frontal passage in the local area around 7 AM EDT Thursday morning. Per soundings this is the most unstable time. After that time period, should see mainly thunderstorms and or showers. Some redevelopment later in the afternoon is questionable due to cloud cover and previous rain as mentioned yesterday. Approaching the 7 PM EDT time frame CAPE rises to a modest 873 J/kg supportive of thunderstorms/showers but limited severe potential.

Farther to our south along the gulf coast in Florida the potential for severe storms is greater through the overnight hours Thursday into Friday morning. During most of this event Thursday, Bulk Shear remains at or below 40kts, increasing late Thursday night into Friday morning close to 50kts.

All in all, I expect nothing more than thunderstorms/showers with the possibility some of them being severe. When and where I do not know.

Here are the latest graphics form the Storm Prediction Center Valid 8 AM Thursday Morning thru 8 AM Friday Morning...

Southeast Mississippi into South Alabama a portion of South Georgia and Much of Florida is included in the Slight Risk area for strong thunderstorms.

Percentage wise, the above mentioned areas are in a 15% Risk area of seeing Severe storms.

Here's the Significant Tornado Parameter for 11 PM Thursday night. This graphic depicts the greatest potential for tornadoes during the entire event. Notice as mentioned above; "along the gulf coast the potential for severe storms is greater through the overnight hours Thursday into Friday morning." ... Graphic courtesy of Earl Barker @ wxcaster.com

Georgia / Alabama Potential Severe Storms Weds/Thurs April 4/5 2012

Biggest threats will be Straight line winds and hail. Small chance of a Tornado can't be ruled out. Threw that in as some data supports it.

At this point I'm not sure which model or sounding to trust. It seems the model madness through this past winter is carrying over into spring. While this may be, I do believe as mentioned there will be some potential for strong to severe storms on Thursday. Things may begin to fire as early as the early AM hours Thursday. Depending on early precipitation and cloud cover, this will determine if the storms continue through the day, and how strong some may be.

I'll have a better idea on the what, when and where tomorrow Wednesday April 4 2012.

Image below: Significant Tornado Parameter for 5 AM EDT Thursday Morning. The local Columbus GA. / Phenix City AL. area is at a 1, [small chance].

Tracking Southeast Storms March 2/3 2012 - Latest Graphics

For the remainder of the night, Follow me on Twitter @CataulaGaWX and Facebook at Cataula Ga Weather.

Automatic posting of Watches and Warnings are posted at my other Twitter and Facebook accounts - Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 7:30 PM EST today, valid through Saturday morning.

Changes in these graphics from this evening at 3:41 PM EST HIGHLIGHTED HIGH RISK AREA for SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE..HAS BEEN REMOVED..Other changes in COVERAGE areas of the Moderate, and Slight risk are indicated. These coverage areas are likely to continue shifting EAST in future Updates.


Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms - Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms - Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms - Red Area, HIGH RISK area likely to see TORNADOES - Fuchsia Area.

Tornado Outlook: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. - 2% risk of a Tornado - Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado - Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado - Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado - Red Area. Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds - Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds - Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds - Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail - Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail - Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail - Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

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Just for show...

Tornado Outbreak / Widespread Severe Weather Friday and Saturday March 2-3 2012

Please folks, take this threat seriously. Since 12 AM this morning there has already been 118 total storm reports. 17 of those have been Tornado reports, 18 high wind reports of winds 74 MPH or higher [ Category 1 Hurricane winds 74 - 95 mph ] and 83 Large hail reports 2 inches and larger.

This may be my last BLOG post on this. I will be monitoring the situation in the SOUTHEAST and posting Updates on Twitter @CataulaGaWX and Facebook at Cataula Ga Weather.
Automatic posting of Watches and Warnings are posted at my other Twitter and Facebook accounts - Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 2:56 PM EST today, valid through Saturday morning.
Changes in these graphics from this morning at 12:42 AM EST now HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK AREA for SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE....Other changes in COVERAGE areas of the Moderate, and Slight risk are also indicated. These coverage areas are likely to shift EAST in future Updates.

Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms - Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms - Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms - Red Area, HIGH RISK area likely to see TORNADOES - Fuchsia Area.

Tornado Outlook: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. - 2% risk of a Tornado - Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado - Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado - Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado - Red Area. 30% risk of a Tornado - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds - Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds - Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds - Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail - Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail - Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail - Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Widespread Severe Weather Expected Friday and Saturday March 2-3 2012

First and foremost ... The main threat will be north of the local area, but the possibility remains for strong to severe storms.

As in all of my posts of this nature, this is not meant to alarm you, but to give you a heads up as to what may be heading to your area. I try real hard not to overstate a situation like this. On the same note, I will not downplay a severe risk either. If what I tell you fails to materialize, that's a good thing.

Okay, on with the show....

Around 11 PM last night after looking very quickly at data I became more concerned with what I saw from earlier. So much so I posted this on Facebook so my Columbus Georgia area followers would be aware of what may happen with the coming storms.

Listen up ... I am becoming more concerned for the local area after taking a quick peek at some data. While I still believe at this time it will not be as bad as areas to our north [that's a given], I do believe it will become quite active around here. I will be looking at more data in the hours to come and will have a blog update tomorrow moring. Always be weather alert even if a tornado threat isn't as high where you live !!

Some of my followers became alarmed and this was my reply.

I do believe as mentioned things may get active around here. What that will bring is anyone's guess. Down here the risks will not be a widespread as in areas to our north. There is still a chance of seeing isolated severe storms down here, and from what I looked at earlier that chance has increased from what I looked at even earlier. The timing looks like the most severe will come through in the AM hours of Saturday morning providing what I looked at holds together. Before this time stronger storms are possible. My concern is not meant to say Tornadoes will be a sure thing in the local area, only that the chances are now enhanced from my earlier thinking

I stand by my earlier thoughts.

Possibly verifying my thoughts is this from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning

GULF STATES...

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT APPEARS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE-WISE AS WIND SHIFT ENCOUNTERS MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF STATES. SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO FAVOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD CERTAINLY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS.

Possibly enhancing this is something I mentioned yesterday, a secondary low forming south of the main low. You can see this second low clearly in this graphic on the Texas / Oklahoma border.

[ Graphic from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - National Weather Service ]

Also of concern along with this is a 'Dry Line' tailing south from this second low as seen on this surface map issued this morning at 2:29 AM EST. This may also provide enhancement to the system allowing more warm moist air to feed in providing fuel.

This is very serious situation yet to unfold for many areas of the Ohio Valley down to the Gulf coast and East to the Carolinas.


Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning

Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms Red Area.

Tornado Outlook: 2% risk of a Tornado Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado Red Area. Red Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

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I'll be getting some sleep and will be back monitoring the situation around 4 PM EST today.

As usual when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Update 1 - Latest on Storms Saturday 2/18 and Sunday 2/19

Update #1 - 4:00 PM EST 2/18/2012

Quick Update to show the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center this afternoon. The changes are subtle but do impact the local area and much of the southeast. For previous graphics see 'original post' below.

The primary hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail and lightning.

Slight Risk : Now includes Most of West Central Georgia over towards Macon in Central Georgia and South Towards Albany.

Tornado Probability : The local area including Columbus GA. and Phenix City Al is at a 2% risk of seeing a Tornado with the 5% area now encroaching on the southern counties in the local area.

Wind Probability : The local area including Columbus GA. and Phenix City Al. south towards Albany is now well within a 15% risk of Damaging Winds with a 5% Risk covering much of Georgia back into Alabama. The 30% risk area has shifted slightly northeast.

Hail Probability : The local area including Columbus GA., much of Central GA towards Macon and Phenix City Al. and much of central Alabama is at a 5% risk of seeing large hail.

Per the SPC concerning this update:

ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL GA WHERE THE GFS MOVES A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...A TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS CNTRL GA.

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Original Post at 9:38 AM EST 2/18/2012

The primary hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail and lightning.

I will add, looking at models today, it seems the threat for really severe storms has diminished somewhat. This does not mean that one or more will not occur so don't let your guard down.


Looking at soundings from the RUC this morning for 6 AM Saturday through 12 AM Sunday morning [ 18 hrs sounding ], looks like any stronger storms will hold off until this evening around 4 PM EST. This particular model is indicating at this time stronger storms late this evening. One such storm is possible around 10 PM EST. The Hodograph for this particular storm is showing Zero CAPE, Helicity 782 and Shear 59 m/s. As mentioned yesterday, this system is a low CAPE, moderate to high Shear event and this sounding shows that well.

The NAM sounding shows stronger storms holding off until around 6 PM EST, building through the evening where around 10 PM EST one of the possible stronger storms will push through, having Zero CAPE, Helicity 799 and Shear 52 m/s.

The GFS3 sounding shows stronger storms holding off until around 6 PM EST as well, then building through the evening where around 12 AM EST Sunday Morning one of the possible stronger storms will push through, having Zero CAPE, Helicity 775 and Shear 50 m/s.

All in all possible stronger storms should arrive in the area this evening around 5 PM EST. Continuing through the evening with stronger storms around 11 PM EST Saturday night continuing through the overnight into early morning hours of Sunday. Accompanying these thunderstorms will be lots of rain with the GFS showing storm totals of over 3 inches.


Here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center this morning....

Slight Risk : Extends north into the southern local area, including Columbus.

Tornado Probability : The Southern local area including Columbus is at a 2% risk of a Tornado.

Wind Probability : The local area including Columbus south is at a 15% risk of Damaging Winds with a 5% Risk covering the rest of the local area.

Hail Probability : The local area including Columbus, south and west of the city is at a 5% risk.

Here is this mornings outlook from the NWS Peachtree City, GA

Day One...Today and Tonight... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of central Georgia. Synopsis... A strong storm system will move out of Texas and into the southeast United States through tonight. Primary Hazards... The primary hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be isolated tornadoes...damaging winds...large hail and lightning. The area of concern is along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon to Louisville and between midnight tonight and 7 am Sunday morning. Discussion... A ridge of high pressure will strengthen over north and central Georgia today as rain spreads across the state today. The strength of the ridge will depend on how far north a warm front will move into central Georgia tonight. At this time the warm front is expected to reach a Columbus to Macon to Louisville line late tonight. Areas south of the warm front will destabilize with capes reaching 600. Significant shear coupled with the relatively high capes and dewpoints in the lower 60s will be sufficient for isolated severe thunderstorms to develop after midnight tonight.

And the excessive rainfall outlook from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

As is the case when severe weather threatens the area, I will be posting updates on Facebook and Twitter as much as I can and to the best of my ability.

My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


Previous posts :

Thursday, February 16, 2012 - Severe Weather Threat Saturday / Sunday - Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

Severe Weather Threat still on track Saturday / Sunday for Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

Georgia Drought Update - February 2 2012

Some changes in Georgia's drought situation since my last update on January 5 .... some good, some bad.

The northern areas of the Georgia have continued to see adequate rainfall to keep drought conditions at bay.
The central areas of the Georgia while having some good rainfall at times continues to see drought conditions albeit to a lesser extinct in west central Georgia, which is now in a severe drought down from extreme drought. The remainder of central Georgia is still experiencing Extreme drought conditions.
The southern areas of the Georgia have worsened. Most areas of south Georgia are now seeing continued severe drought with a large area now beginning to experience Exceptional Drought conditions, since my last update on January 5 2012.

Here's a graphic showing drought conditions in Georgia from January 3 2012 through January 31 2012 Via the U.S. Drought Monitor and their report concerning Georgia Drought.

In Georgia, the sharp contrast between northern drought-free areas and southern Exceptional Drought (D4) further intensified. In northern Georgia, additional showers – albeit light (amounts generally less than an inch)- kept soils favorable moist. Meanwhile, little if any rain fell across southern Georgia, where Exceptional Drought was expanded to correspond with the greatest 6-month rainfall departures (locally less than 50 percent of normal) and the lowest streamflows (5th percentile or lower).

Locally at my homestead in West Central Georgia, I have had some good rain in the past 6 months. August 2011 - 3.52", September 2011 - 8.33", October 2011 - 1.36", November 2011 - 3.32", December 2011 - 6.17", and January 2012 - 6.63", for a total of 29.33 inches of rain. The normal amount of rain for my area is 21.12 inches for this same six month period. At this time I have a surplus of 8.21 inches locally. I would say my homestead is out of drought, although not reflected in the graphic above as they are not that precise.

Here are rainfall deficits for the last 365 days from select areas in Georgia via NWS Peachtree City, GA

DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL THROUGH 02/01/2012:

ATLANTA HARTSFIELD-JACKSON AP: -8.67
ATHENS BEN EPPS AP: -10.31
COLUMBUS METRO AP: -5.32
MACON MIDDLE GA REGIONAL AP: -12.72

Here's a look at drought conditions over the entire southeast ..

Here's a graphic showing the departure from normal precipitation for 2011 via AHPS Precipitation Analysis

And the current year to date 2012 departure from normal precipitation.

Here's a graphic showing additional precipitation needed to bring conditions back to near normal. For the local area, we still need anywhere from a Trace to 12 inches of rainfall. As shown in the above text [rainfall deficits for the last 365 days], The closest reporting station to my homestead is Columbus which is reporting a deficit at this time of -5.32 inches. Areas to our south need 9 to 12 inches. Graphic via Climate Prediction Center

Update 2 - Severe Weather Threat Thursday / Friday - Georgia / Alabama 1/26-1/27/2012

Storm Prediction Center RAISES SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE BOARD Georgia,Alabama Severe Threat

Update #2 - 8:45 AM EST 1/26/12

Slight Risk area now covers much of the Southeast.

Tornado Probability : The local area is now at a 5% risk of a Tornado from 2% earlier [Scroll down for previous graphic in Update #1]

Wind Probability : The local area remains at a 15% risk of Damaging Winds with the 30% Risk [not instated earlier] now at the Alabama Georgia State line.

Hail Probability : Hail coverage area extended, still to our west. Local area still excluded.

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Update #1 - 5:15 AM EST 1/26/12

Threat remains for Damaging Straigtline Winds and isolated Tornadoes in the local area, East Central Alabama, West Central Georgia.

The Storm Prediction Center continues with the Slight Risk for strong thunderstorms across the area. There is also an area in South Alabama encroaching on central Alabama for the greatest threat for Tornadoes with a 5% probability extending south and west covering the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Mississippi. A 2% probability of a Tornado covers the remainder of our area extending over most of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, the Florida Panhandle and Southwest South Carolina.

As mentioned, the biggest threat will be from Damaging Straightline Winds occurring with the Squall Line as it pushes east. All of the Columbus local area and Phenix City area is now included in a 15% probability of seeing these damaging winds. The 15% also covers most of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle. At this time the threat of Hail is 5% and is contained to our West covering Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle.

From the Storm Prediction Center:

LATEST THINKING IS RENEWED FRONTAL CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE WILL EVOLVE OVER MS/SERN LA BEFORE PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF STATES AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR CERTAINLY SUPPORTS DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN TORNADOES WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. OTHERWISE...AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE APPRECIABLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO PERHAPS PORTIONS OF ERN GA/SC DUE TO A DECAYING SQUALL LINE.

From The National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia

An area of low pressure will move across the Tennessee Valley on Thursday with a trailing cold front approaching the Gulf Coast states. Ahead of this front...abundant moisture will allow for the development of Showers and Scattered Thunderstorms across the forecast area Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning. Isolated strong to severe storms will accompany this activity overnight with Damaging Winds and Isolated Tornadoes being the primary concerns. With 1 to 3 inch rainfall totals expected in already saturated areas...the flash flooding potential over North Georgia will also need to be monitored closely. Please reference the Flash Flood Watch for more information on potential flooding.

And from the National Weather Service Birmingham, AL

The severe threat will shift into east Alabama Thursday evening. The greatest threat area for severe will be south of I-20 and east of I-65. The severe threat should be over by midnight.

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Original Post - 5:53 PM EST 1/25/2012

I'm not going to downplay the storm system heading our direction. I will also try not to overstate the severity. I am not trying to scare anyone. I just want you to be aware of the possibility of severe weather.

The biggest threat will be damaging Straightline Winds from a Squall line that is expected to form. Within this line, there is the possibility of Isolated Tornadoes.

With that, here is the latest statement from the National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 PM EST WED JAN 25 2012

MAJOR CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS A RESULT OF THE HIGHLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELED INSTABILITIES PEAK ACROSS THE CWA 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY...WITH ML CAPE GENERALLY IN THE 200-300 J/KG RANGE. DECENT SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THESE INSTABILITIES...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR IN THE 25-35KT RANGE AS THE MAIN LINE PUSHES INTO THE STATE...AND INCREASES TO 40-45KTS ACROSS THE CSG AND MCN AREAS BY 06-12Z FRIDAY. JUST BEHIND THESE MAXIMA...MODELED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 65-75 KTS. AS A RESULT...CAN EXPECT TO SEE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. SPC ALREADY HAS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. WITH THIS STRONG EVENT EVOLVING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT IS IMPORTANT TO PREPARE NOW. DO NOT LET THESE STORMS CATCH YOU OFF GUARD.

And the latest graphics from the National Weather Service Birmingham, AL

See Previous post Severe Weather Threat Thursday / Friday - Georgia / Alabama 1/26-1/27/2012 for more information. Contains lead up info.