Georgia and Alabama #Derecho Event March 18 2013

Widespread wind damage reports were reported across much of Georgia and Alabama on March 18 2013. There were also reports of Hail varying in size from small to upward of 3 inches.

While this storm system as far as I've seen has not been classified as a Derecho, it does qualify as one. A Derecho is classified as a long lived line of storms causing wind damage for more than 240 miles along most of it's length. Another requirement to meet Derecho qualification is wind speeds of or greater than 57 MPH at points along the path of the storm. I don't have data to back this up, but from following and reporting on many of the storms spawned by this system, I'd say this qualification was also met.

This system caused widespread wind damage from North Alabama where it began to take on the characteristics of a Derecho and lasting into Southeast Georgia. The distance covered is almost double the 240 mile requirement.

Here's a Radar loop of the event






Here's a couple maps showing wind damage and hail as well as a couple tornado reports.

Severe weather still on track for Georgia and Alabama Wednesday JAN 30 #gawx #alwx

This was written for my local area and posted on my Facebook page Cataula Georgia Weather. The local area is Columbus and Fort Benning Georgia and Phenix City Alabama. You can use this information for areas anywhere in East Alabama and West Georgia as the system coming through will cover a large area. On with the show....

The exact time is still in question depending on which model you go by and I will continue to look at them for agreement. Still looking like instabilities will increase sometime after 8:00 AM EST Wednesday morning. Regardless of timing, before the main area comes through we may see some thunderstorms in the area some which could be severe with damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

The winds will be gusty during this time 20 to 25 mph and will increase as the expected line of stronger storms gets closer and moves through the area to about 40 mph. Gusty winds like this can cause damage without being associated with severe storms. Stronger winds are likely in any severe storm. I'll also keep a watch for any discrete / individual storm cells developing out in front of the main line. These may become strong enough to bring severe weather to the area before the main line. These type of individual storm cells may also be capable of spawning tornadoes. The greatest threat at this time remains unchanged from my previous posts .. Strong to severe 'damaging winds' are likely and the possibility of a tornado or two. As always, 'not everyone will see severe storms and or tornadoes'.

I'll be looking at this closely over the coming hours for any changes that may increase the severity of the storms. Right now I do have one concern. As the trough approaches that will be bring the storms to the area, it looks to go from a positive tilt to a neutral tilt. This will increase the wind speeds / shear in both the upper and lower levels. At this time the winds are more than adequate for a damaging wind event and a couple tornadoes. Any increase would make this a larger threat. If the trough should go negatively tilted, the wind and shear would again increase even more. This is something that will need to be monitored and I will be doing just that. I'll have another update Wednesday Morning or sooner is needed. ~ ED

As always, find me on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather and Twitter before and when the storms strike. I'm there all the time and don't always have time to update the blog here ;) Follow @Cataulagawx

Late week system - Severe Weather undetermined Georgia / Alabama

Posted 3:17 PM EST 1/6/2013

Next system looks to come in Thursday and Friday but should see some rain showers before and after. Weather models continue to disagree on timing and strength of system for the local area but as mentioned, at a minimum we should have some thunder in the area.

The GFS is faster with the system and takes it quicker to the north along with the energy associated with it, while the ECMWF is slower and farther south bringing it into the area on Friday.

Still undetermined at this time if there will be any severe weather with this in our area, but will go ahead and 'mention again' the possibility of 'isolated severe' due to the environment associated with this system.

I'll keep watching this and will post again when I know more and closer to weeks end.

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Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast - December 25 2012

Regardless of strength and track of the developing low, at a minimum this will be a 'damaging wind event'. On the extreme side it looks like there will be more than a couple tornadoes to deal with mainly in Central and Southern areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and possibly extreme Northern Florida.

If you've followed me long enough you know I won't / don't sugar coat what I see. I want you to enjoy your Christmas but I want you to be aware of the storms that will develop during the day Tuesday in Mississippi and Alabama continuing east through the afternoon into the early morning hours on Wednesday in Georgia. I will remind you that not everyone will experience severe weather and/or tornadoes.

Without getting into technical details [ weather speak ] here's the latest outlook from various National Weather Service office's around the southeast. Click image to enlarge.

Here's the outlook form the Storm Prediction Center on 12/23/12 AM. This outlook will be updated on Monday and Tuesday Morning and throughout the day Tuesday December 25 2012.

I'll be keeping an eye on this for further developments.


Technical details [ weather speak ]- 12z NAM and 12z GFS Severe parameters look strong for Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Northern Florida and a tad weaker [Lifted index and Cape] in East Georgia, still looks more than adequate for severe storms at this time.

Looking at latest data from the 12z NAM and 12z GFS, it appears the system has slowed somewhat. Nonetheless Wind Shear is still quite strong with a Jet Streak of 80+ knots on the 12z NAM and 90 knots on the 12z GFS in the areas mentioned above.

The lifted index on both models is -1 to -3 and approaching -5 on the NAM Late Wednesday night. Cape on the NAM is in the 1500 to 1750 Jkg Tuesday evening and around 750 on the GFS during the same time frame. I suspect a feedback issue here.

I expect backing winds will increase the threat of Tornadoes as time goes on. Also depending on cloud cover and rain or lack thereof ahead of the system the overall strength will increase due to heating allowed. Dewpoints will be in the high 50's to mid 60's and approaching the 70's along the gulf coast adding instability and will be transported north.

Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx


If you're local to the Columbus GA, Ft Benning GA, Phenix City Al area, you can also follow my posts on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Posted 1:20 PM EST 12/23/2012

Another round of Southeast Severe Weather for Wednesday / Thursday 12/19-12/20/2012

Moisture already beginning to be pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of this next system. This system is more potent that the one we saw earlier this week move across the south. It also looks to be faster.

Louisiana and Mississippi

Impacts will be felt in Louisiana beginning Wednesday Night moving quickly into Mississippi by Thursday morning. The greatest threat will be damaging winds of 60 mph plus that will accompany a squall line that is expected to develop. Due to strong wind shear and forcing to the surface, it is likely a few tornadoes will spin up quickly. These types of quick spin ups are hard to detect on radar and usually occur without Tornado Warnings being issued.

Outlook for Wednesday December 19 2012

Alabama and Georgia

It all comes down to timing as to what will happen in Alabama and Georgia. If it comes in later than anticipated I expect a more robust system with more widespread thunderstorms some that will turn severe. If it comes in earlier than anticipated I expect some thundershowers and a few thunderstorms. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE SEVERE WEATHER. Just as the storm system Yesterday, It didn't get bad until it was to our south and east.

At this time I expect the main line of stronger storms should they develop to enter the east Alabama area between 12 and 2 PM CST [Thursday] and West Georgia shortly after. This timing is subject to change in the next day or so. We'll just have to keep an eye on this and see what happens. Right now our area is highlighted just as it was yesterday for a 'slight risk' of stronger thunderstorms.

Outlook for Thursday December 20 2012

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Monday 12/17/12 Update - Southeast Severe Weather

The possibility of severe storms still exist today for areas in the southeast. Currently [ 5:20 AM EST 12/17/2012 ] seeing some moderate to strong thunderstorms in Southeast Mississippi / Southwest Alabama ahead of the cold front generally heading East-Northeast while the Cold front pushes east.

Radar at 5:20 AM EST

The only thing at this time I see limiting stronger storms developing, some possibly severe, is instability and moisture available ahead of the front. This lack of instability will be on the increase. By early afternoon / mid day Georgia should see storms some of which 'will be severe' begin to fire off. As always, 'Not everyone will see severe weather. I don't think there is enough time this morning for severe storms to break out in south-central Alabama, but may see some later in East Alabama / West Georgia. At the least should see isolated thunderstorms in these areas as morning pushes on. All of this will eventually make it's way to South Carolina later today.

As mentioned the past few days the greatest threat will be 'Damaging winds' associated with the stronger storms. We'll have to keep an eye on things this afternoon onward for the potential for an isolated tornado as well as hail.

Here's the outlook for today issued by the SPC 'valid at 12z - 7 AM EST' this morning. [click image to embiggen]

I likely wont be posting further updates on this here. Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Southeast Severe Weather December 16 2012 - Outlook for severe 12-19 / 12-20-12

Rain / Storms still on track. As mentioned yesterday - "On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday." Main threat still continues to be Damaging winds with stronger storms should they develop. However, due to the setup a LOW threat of a tornado is still present. Not everyone will see severe weather or a tornado. [ Note: Another round of storms expected around Wednesday / Thursday - See below graphic ]

Here's what the SPC has outlined for today into Monday Morning at this time...

And Monday morning thru Tuesday Morning at this time...

Here's the areas being watched at this time [Sunday afternoon] for possible severe weather on Wednesday Day 4 and Thursday Day 5. At this time the setup is looking interesting and if models remain consistent severe storms should develop in or around these areas.

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Possibility of Southeast Severe Weather Saturday thru Monday - December 15 2012

It seems our Second Severe Season has arrived albeit a bit late. Normally the fall severe weather begins in Mid to late November in the southeast. November this year was quite with the exception of a potential severe weather event in the southeast that never materialized during the Nov. 11^th thru 13^th time frame. If you were around this past week you may recall the Storms and Tornadoes in the Southeast on December 10 2012. on with the show ...

This coming bout of potential Severe weather will begin Late Saturday in the ARK-LA-MISS area shifting east with time into Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida. There remains uncertainty with the system as to timing and how strong storms may become due to how strong the upper level low pressure expected to develop in the northern tiers of this region becomes. The stronger the ULL, the more moisture it will pull north from the Gulf of Mexico into an already somewhat unstable air mass closer to the coast and extending northward. Regardless, am expecting some strong storms with isolated severe at this time throughout the region beginning today thru Monday again spreading west to east. Right now [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] confidence is somewhat LOW to the severe side based on how much cloud cover and rain occurs ahead of the frontal system in the warm sector.

Threats with this system will be in the form of Isolated strong to severe storms with the potential for a few Tornadoes with stronger storms possible. While the threat of tornadoes looks low at this time, a couple can't be entirely ruled out due to increasing shear layer to layer which may became surface based over time supporting Bowing Line areas capable of Damaging Straight Line winds and Isolated Supercells which may spawn a Tornado. There is also a threat of Flash Flooding in areas with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. As always .. not everyone will experience severe storms.

Today through Tomorrow morning the main threat will be the possibility of Damaging winds associated with strong thunderstorms that may develop generally in the afternoon and evening hours continuing through the overnight. ... On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday. On Sunday the Storm Prediction Center at this time [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] has an area highlighted for an elevated risk for strong to severe storms. We'll see how this area looks later today for possible increase in severity or even a decrease. For now here is what they have for Sunday Morning through Monday Morning. [click image to embiggen]

Here's the anticipated Rain Amounts Today through Tuesday Morning

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Storm Reports - Southeast Severe Weather on December 10 2012

See Side Note at bottom

Storm and Tornado reports from Monday's Severe Weather event December 10 2012

Here's the lead up to this event posted Monday 12/10/12

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Storm Warnings / Reports issued

Storm report Links [ Links open in New tab / window ]

Tornado Damage on December 10th, 2012 Birmingham (Jefferson) EF-1 Tornado via National Weather Service Birmingham, AL

Tornadic Debris Signature - 0.5 degree correlation coefficient (CC) of Dual Pol from KBMX. There are 3 images in this loop. Notice the "explosion" of CC just east of I-65 on the last two images. This is called a Tornadic Debris Signature or TDS.

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Severe Weather Event December 10, 2012 via National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge Louisiana

Walthall County Louisiana Tornado - KLIX Storm Relative Velocity at maximum intensity at 816 AM CST 12/10/2012

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December 9-10, 2012 Tornadoes Mississippi via National Weather Service Jackson, MS

Marion County Tornado - These images from the Brandon, MS doppler radar show the tornadic thunderstorm at 8:20 am as the tornado passed near Columbia. The image on the left shows 0.5° base reflectivity data, and the image on the right shows 0.5° storm relative velocity data.

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Side note : An active weather pattern continues next week and the following week. Next week may bring some interesting winter weather to the deep southeast per current models or severe storms depending where you're at. Still a lot of uncertainty in this forecast as models continue to flip flop on final outcome. Computer models should have a better idea this weekend and I'll post an update then. ~ Ed

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Update - Southeast Severe Weather Outlook - 8 AM EST 12/10/12

Severe storms began to fire up in Alabama and Mississippi around 5 AM EST and continue in Mississippi at this time 8:24 AM EST 12/10/2012.

The outlook for the late morning, early afternoon remains about the same as my earlier report. The main threat is strong damaging winds associated with the line of showers and storms ahead of the cold front currently in Mississippi. A 'tornado or two can't be ruled out later as numerous Tornado warnings have been issued today. The severe storms at this time are in South central Mississippi and South east Louisiana.

Throughout the remainder of the day this line of storms 'should weaken' as it pushes east into central and south Alabama and continues into Central and south Georgia. As stated, it 'should weaken' but bears keeping an eye on as it won't take much heating for instability to increase later and combined with adequate wind shear strong storms may develop once again. While my thinking is it will weaken and severe storms will be limited, a few isolated strong storms are possible given the moist unstable environment.

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Possible Severe Storms Monday December 10 2012

Good morning, Here's the weather outlook for Alabama and Georgia today.

Rain will be moving in today with Thunderstorms in the afternoon through the evening. There is still the possibility some of the storms could be severe. Not everyone will see severe weather. There is also a slim chance one of these strong storms could spin up a brief tornado, but the chances of that are very LOW. This is due to adequate wind shear in the upper levels. Outside of a possible tornado, the biggest threat at this time will be damaging winds with stronger thunderstorms. Not everyone will see this.

Check the Radar Page for current scans.

Rain could also be heavy at times, but I'm not anticipating a drought buster by any means. Rainfall amounts should be under a half inch. Cooler air moves in during and behind the rain with highs in the 50's to about Thursday, then a slight warm up before the next system arrives this coming weekend.

The next outlook from the Storm Prediction Center will be released this morning at 8 AM EST. I'll try and update you sometime this afternoon. ~ Ed Quinn

#Tornado in Algarve, #Portugal - video

While the weather is quite in the states, a tornado ripped through Algarve, Portugal. This person filming got lucky that no debris came through their window. I would suggest you not stand at a window with a tornado coming at you. This could have been the last thing they saw. Enjoy!



You can see more videos and pictures of this here - http://www.onweer-online.nl/forum/topic/36577/tornado-treft-algarve-in-portugal-tornado-strikes-/

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Early look at 'Possible severe weather' for November 11-13 2012

This is a look ahead to November 11^th through the 13^th. As you know things in the weather world change on a dime. Should this verify we may see some strong to severe storms in the South & Southeast, Tennessee valley, Middle & Lower Mississippi valley back into the Central & Southern plains. We are entering our Second Severe Weather Season in these areas. I'll keep a watch on modeling in the coming days as we near these dates.

Surface to 500mb Bulk Shear in knots. Here it looks pretty impressive and could support severe weather possible Tornadoes. [denotes the change of wind direction with height a measure of vorticity]

Cross over winds in knots from Surface[red] to 500mb[blue] [winds form different direction that may cause spin]

Temperature at the surface during this possible event shows the contrast ahead of the system vs behind it. Notice the 70's and 80's ahead and the cooler 30' and 40' behind. This is the same setup we deal with in spring as warm and colder air clash.

While dew points are modest approaching the 60's it doesn't take high dew points this time of year to provide more energy for storms. [Dew point is the measure of moisture / fuel in the air so to speak]

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#Sandy Makes Landfall October 29 2012 - Graphics

Sandy has made landfall as an Extratropical storm on the southern tip of New Jersey near Cape May and Ocean city. At landfall Sandy had Sustained winds of 90 mph and a central pressure of 940mb. Tropical Storm Force and Hurricane Force winds were felt for many hours. The National Hurricane Center has Sandy as a Post-Tropical Cyclone making landfall at 8:00 PM EDT Monday, October 29 2012 with winds of 80 mph and a central pressure of 946 located at 39.4N 74.5W. and moving WNW AT 23 MPH .[see note at bottom of post]

Below is the ONLY graphic from the Hurricane center of Sandy before landfall at 5:00 PM EDT Monday, October 29 2012. There is not a graphic at landfall at 8:00 PM EDT. Notice the location on the graphic 38.8N 74.4W and moving WNW at 28 mph as compared to the location at landfall from above 39.4N 74.5W. and moving WNW AT 23 MPH.

So the storm was moving at 23 mph at landfall, a decrease of 2 mph from the 5 pm report. Yet it took according to the Hurricane center 3 hours from the 5 pm report to make landfall at 8 pm, moving less than 34.4 miles at 23 miles and hour. Where as at 23 mph X 3 hours would have moved it 69 miles. I contend Hurricane Sandy made landfall between 6:15 and 6:30 pm as reported to my followers here, on facebook, and twitter as an as an Extratropical storm. Apples and Oranges, I know.

Here are Satellite images of Sandy During landfall from 6:15 PM EDT, 7:45 PM EDT and 8:15 PM EDT.

Sandy SAT 615 pm EDT 102912

Sandy SAT 745 pm EDT 102912

Sandy SAT 815 pm EDT 102912

Note - Landfall : The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. Compare direct hit, indirect hit, and strike. source - http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=l

Many including myself thought from looking at data at the time that Hurricane Sandy made landfall between 6:15 and 6:30 PM EDT Monday October 29 2012; including some pro Mets. However the official time of landfall for Hurricane Sandy as released by the National Hurricane Center was at 8:00 PM EDT Monday October 29 2012. I will also point out that http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#l the National Hurricane Center tells us the same thing as the first link above from weather.gov. .... Now from observations, Hurricane Sandy or as it was called at landfall, Post-Tropical Cyclone SANDY, made landfall after the WHOLE EYE was on land. Not the leading edge. Not the center. The complete eye, at 8 PM EDT Monday October 29 2012

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Hurricane #Sandy Landfall 5:00 to 7:00 PM EDT | Update 2:00 PM EDT 10/29/12

At 940mb, Sandy is now the strongest hurricane recorded north of North Carolina!

Time of the center making landfall likely 5:00 to 7:00 PM EDT.
Per a tweet at 1:01 PM EDT Today from Dr. Greg Forbes @DrGregForbes from the weather Channel: "Sandy is speeding up, moving northwest at 25-30 mph. It could make landfall south NJ around 5PM. Hurricane winds approaching NJ, south NY."
*Note: At the source link, timestamp is wrong. source: https://twitter.com/DrGregForbes/status/262962284517801984

Winds continue to increase with Sandy. Estimated wind speed at landfall or before the center moves inland are near 100 mph. Wind gusts of 50-60+ mph are being reported along the NJ, NY, MA coasts and gusting to 66 mph at JFK Airport in NYC. Numerous power outages are coming in from various news sources with reports of 150,000 without power. This will continue and worsen as Sandy nears landfall south of Atlantic City.

Currently - Winds: 90 mph | Pressure 940 mb | Location: 38.3N 73.1W (175 miles South-southeast of New York City New York and 110 miles Southeast of Atlantic City New Jersey) | Moving Northwest at 28 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out 485 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. A tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for North of surf City to Duck North Carolina and Pamlico / Albemarle sounds. Please Check previous posts Below for more information on expected impacts.

Hurricane #Sandy - State of Emergency for many

The following states / areas have issued a State of Emergency: Washington D.C., Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. If you know of others at this time, please let me know in the comments. Thanks ~ Ed

Sandy was downgraded to a Tropical Storm in the early morning hours [5 AM EDT] today. At 8 AM EDT today she was upgraded to a Hurricane once again.

Here's the latest on Sandy - Winds: 75 mph | Pressure 958 mb | Location: 29.0N 76.0W (190 miles North0Northeast of Great Abaco Island, 355 miles Southeast of Charleston South Carolina) | Moving NNE at 9 mph. Currently Tropical storm force winds extend out 450 miles and Hurricane winds out 105 miles from the center.

Turing our focus to areas that will be impacted in the short term by Sandy: For eastern North Carolina including the coastal areas we can expect Moderate coastal flooding tonight into Monday. Storm Surge combined with rainfall estimates at this time may cause inundation from 1 to 5 feet 'above ground' North of Cape Hatteras Ocean side, Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras Ocean side, North of Surf City to Cape Lookout. On the sound side 3 to 5 feet 'above ground' may be seen along the Southern Pamlico Sound and Lower Neuse 'Today and Sunday' and anywhere on the sound side of the Outer Banks 'Sunday into Monday' including Roanoke Island. There is some uncertainty in the exact areas that will see this but it remains possible across a large area.

Winds will also be strong and gusty 'tonight into Monday' along Coastal areas sustained at 35 to 45 mph with gusts 50 to 65 mph. Further inland winds will be 25 to 35 mph with gust 40 to 50 mph. Now is a great time to secure loose belongings that are outside if you haven't already done so. Rip currents will be dangerous with breaking waves 8 to 12 feet 'today' and will cause significant beach erosion. Please stay out of the ocean.

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 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information as this storm unfolds at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone . Time for sleep 1 pm edt

Severe Weather Possible in Southeast Today and Tonight - October 17 2012

At this time the greatest threat will be Damaging winds, although a few Tornadoes can't be entirely ruled out as this system evolves. Large damaging hail may also be possible with stronger storms.

Severe weather is expected to develop later this evening and continue through the overnight for some areas in the deep south. Storms will begin late this afternoon in areas of Southern Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana continuing southeast into Northeast Louisiana and Northwest Mississippi this evening. By midnight the storms will be across Mississippi from Northeast to Southwest and beginning to move into Northwest Alabama. In the early morning hours weakening is expected as they continue to push through Alabama into Georgia. While weakening is expected they will still need to be watched.

Click Image to Enlarge

During the early evolution of this, storms should be more individual in the form of possible Supercells evolving later into a concentrated line of storms likely forming a squall line where damaging winds will be present. As always not everyone will experience severe storms but conditions will be favorable for them to develop at any time in and around the area. Make sure you continue to monitor this, and make sure your weather radio is in working order.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Twitter. You can follow along here @CataulaGaWX

Severe Storms Four Corners Region / Central & Southern Plains Today and Tomorrow Southern & Central Plains / Mid & Upper Mississippi Valley

Threats: Severe thunderstorms capable of Damaging winds along with hail some large enough to cause damage. A tornado or two can't be ruled out as storms intensify during daylight hours.

Today Friday 10/12 : A strong low pressure system currently centered in the area of Southern Nevada and Northwestern Arizona will continue to move in a east-northeast direction today. Severe storms 'already firing' in eastern Arizona this morning will continue while heading easterly and likely intensify as the day heats up. Also seeing some higher tops in eastern New Mexico Western Texas this morning on the outer periphery of the Low pressure circulation, these will likely continue to build through the day and possibly bring severe storms. A Tornado watch may be issued later today. Some weakening is likely during the overnight hours due to loss of daytime heating, but severe storms are still possible.

Tomorrow Saturday 10/13 : Storms look at this time to be more concentrated than those of Friday. As the Low pressure continues heading east-northeast, areas of the southern and central plains will likely see thunderstorms early Saturday morning which will continue to build through the day while heading for the Upper and lower Mississippi Valley. Later in the day they will likely bring with them severe storms capable of damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. As always not everyone will experience severe weather so stay aware of changing conditions. Monitor you local weather offices, television stations and weather radios. We'll have more on this later.

Below are graphics showing areas of concern and possible weather for today 'Friday 10/12/12' and tomorrow 'Saturday 10/13/12'.

Friday October 12 2012

Saturday October 13 2012

Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama, Florida Panhandle on Monday 10/01/2012

Already today [ Sunday 9/30/12 ] there have been 'isolated tornadoes' in Mississippi with damage reported and the threat may continue to increase through this evening for areas in Southeast Louisiana, Southern and Central Mississippi and West Central / Southwest Alabama. Likely the threat of strong storms will continue through the overnight into Monday morning as well.

Looks like at this time the severe threat on Monday will be greatest in the Afternoon through late evening into the early overnight if anything comes from it. Possibility of strong storms Monday into Tuesday as well. At the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger thunderstorms. This is not a widespread threat. Isolated severe only. Not everyone will experience serve weather.

Wind shear will be adequate to support rotation with some of the stronger storms as they move from West to East through the area Monday through Monday night and possibly Tuesday morning. While the threat for Tornadoes is low, the threat is there. Heavy rain could also be a problem causing Flash Flooding for some due to abundant moisture being pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico over the same areas.


Here's the current Storm outlook issued 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012. This will likely shift north in updates issued later as the Low and adjacent fronts continue pushing East and North.

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Statement from Storm Prediction Center 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ERN AL AND WRN GA MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45 KT. IN ADDITION...LCL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 500 METERS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE AL AND NW GA INTO SE TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE 9:45 AM 9/17/2012 - Georgia, Alabama, Florida Panhandle, Mississippi

The SPC has shifted the area of potentially Severe Storms and Isolated Tornadoes for Today through late this Monday evening through the overnight into Tuesday morning from previously [see below - Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama and Florida Panhandle - Monday 9/17/2012]. It now includes West Central Georgia through East Central and South Alabama, the Western Florida Panhandle and Southeast Mississippi.

The threats remain unchanged : Isolated Tornadoes, Strong to Severe Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and Heavy rain at times.

Not everyone will see severe weather.

Latest graphics issued 9 AM EDT

Click Image to Enlarge

Radar
Southeast



Southern Mississippi Valley



As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.