Severe weather still on track for Georgia and Alabama Wednesday JAN 30 #gawx #alwx

This was written for my local area and posted on my Facebook page Cataula Georgia Weather. The local area is Columbus and Fort Benning Georgia and Phenix City Alabama. You can use this information for areas anywhere in East Alabama and West Georgia as the system coming through will cover a large area. On with the show....

The exact time is still in question depending on which model you go by and I will continue to look at them for agreement. Still looking like instabilities will increase sometime after 8:00 AM EST Wednesday morning. Regardless of timing, before the main area comes through we may see some thunderstorms in the area some which could be severe with damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

The winds will be gusty during this time 20 to 25 mph and will increase as the expected line of stronger storms gets closer and moves through the area to about 40 mph. Gusty winds like this can cause damage without being associated with severe storms. Stronger winds are likely in any severe storm. I'll also keep a watch for any discrete / individual storm cells developing out in front of the main line. These may become strong enough to bring severe weather to the area before the main line. These type of individual storm cells may also be capable of spawning tornadoes. The greatest threat at this time remains unchanged from my previous posts .. Strong to severe 'damaging winds' are likely and the possibility of a tornado or two. As always, 'not everyone will see severe storms and or tornadoes'.

I'll be looking at this closely over the coming hours for any changes that may increase the severity of the storms. Right now I do have one concern. As the trough approaches that will be bring the storms to the area, it looks to go from a positive tilt to a neutral tilt. This will increase the wind speeds / shear in both the upper and lower levels. At this time the winds are more than adequate for a damaging wind event and a couple tornadoes. Any increase would make this a larger threat. If the trough should go negatively tilted, the wind and shear would again increase even more. This is something that will need to be monitored and I will be doing just that. I'll have another update Wednesday Morning or sooner is needed. ~ ED

As always, find me on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather and Twitter before and when the storms strike. I'm there all the time and don't always have time to update the blog here ;) Follow @Cataulagawx

597 US Counties Declared Disaster Areas Due to Drought

usda.gov

WASHINGTON, Jan. 9, 2013—Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack today designated 597 counties in 14 states as primary natural disaster areas due to drought and heat, making all qualified farm operators in the areas eligible for low-interest emergency loans. These are the first disaster designations made by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2013.

The 597 counties have shown a drought intensity value of at least D2 (Drought Severe) for eight consecutive weeks based on U.S. Drought Monitor measurements, providing for an automatic designation.

The 597 primary counties designated as disaster areas today correspond to the following states: Alabama, 14; Arkansas, 47; Arizona, 4; Colorado, 30; Georgia, 92; Hawaii, 2; Kansas, 88; Oklahoma, 76; Missouri, 31; New Mexico, 19; Nevada, 9; South Carolina, 11; Texas, 157; and Utah, 17. For more information about the specific state designations, visit the Farm Service Agency's disaster designations page.

Alabama counties declared Disaster Areas Due to Drought are:

Bullock	Cleburne	Henry	Montgomery
Chambers	Coosa	Lee	Randolph
Clay	Elmore	Macon	Russell
Talladega	Tallapoosa

Georgia counties declared Disaster Areas Due to Drought are:

Baker	Dougherty	Laurens	Randolph
Baldwin	Douglas	Lee	Richmond
Bartow	Early	Lincoln	Rockdale
Bibb	Elbert	Lumpkin	Schley
Bleckley	Fannin	McDuffie	Spalding
Burke	Fayette	Macon	Stewart
Butts	Forsyth	Marion	Sumter
Calhoun	Fulton	Meriwether	Talbot
Carroll	Gilmer	Mitchell	Taliaferro
Chattahoochee	Glascock	Monroe	Taylor
Cherokee	Grady	Morgan	Terrell
Clay	Greene	Muscogee	Thomas
Clayton	Hancock	Newton	Troup
Cobb	Haralson	Oconee	Twiggs
Columbia	Harris	Oglethorpe	Union
Coweta	Heard	Paulding	Upson
Crawford	Henry	Peach	Walton
Crisp	Houston	Pickens	Warren
Dawson	Jasper	Pike	Washington
Decatur	Jefferson	Polk	Webster
De Kalb	Johnson	Pulaski	Wilcox
Dodge	Jones	Putnam	Wilkes
Dooly	Lama	Quitman	Wilkinson

[PDF] Drought Disaster Designations Map

[PDF] List of Designated Drought Disaster Counties

Late week system - Severe Weather undetermined Georgia / Alabama

Posted 3:17 PM EST 1/6/2013

Next system looks to come in Thursday and Friday but should see some rain showers before and after. Weather models continue to disagree on timing and strength of system for the local area but as mentioned, at a minimum we should have some thunder in the area.

The GFS is faster with the system and takes it quicker to the north along with the energy associated with it, while the ECMWF is slower and farther south bringing it into the area on Friday.

Still undetermined at this time if there will be any severe weather with this in our area, but will go ahead and 'mention again' the possibility of 'isolated severe' due to the environment associated with this system.

I'll keep watching this and will post again when I know more and closer to weeks end.

Follow @Cataulagawx

Georgia Drought Update - Slight Improvement - January 3 2013

In past weeks a Northeasterly fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has brought much needed rains to the south and southeast, where ripples / shortwaves in the southern jet stream have ejected northward every 3 to 4 days. At this time, the pattern continues with another round of rain this morning in southern areas of both Georgia and Alabama.

Since my last drought report on November 21 2012, some improvement was seen. The main areas to see improvement were in West Central Georgia where Exceptional [D-4] Drought was eliminated and Severe [D2] Drought and D4 pulled back in the vicinity of Athens, Georgia. While improvements where seen, the drought in Georgia remains persistent.

Here's a graphic showing drought conditions in November 2012 on the left and current conditions on the right.

The Drought outlook for the Southeast region of the United States for January through March shows improvement. At this time I agree with this assessment based on time of year. Late fall through Winter is generally the wet season in the southeast and with lower temperatures combined with lower sun and shorter days, is a time for regeneration of soil moisture.

While the outlook is encouraging, the past year [2012] many areas in Georgia ended with a deficit in rainfall. As of December 27 2012, Atlanta saw a deficit of 12.80 inches, Athens 9.73 inches, Columbus 11.48 inches and Macon 13.80 inches.
Here's the current data showing how much rain is needed to end drought conditions across the United States in 3 months. *Note - The end of a drought is defined by a PHDI value of -0.5. Drought amelioration is achieved when a PHDI value of -2.0 is reached.

Temperatures and Precipitation outlooks for the next 6 through 14 days show probabilities of 'both' being 'above average for the southeast US. You can see this HERE

My next Drought post will be in February but I will be Tweeting weekly updates so follow me there .. Follow @Cataulagawx