Rain Sleet and Snow coming to Alabama and Georgia

A chance for wintery weather in the deep south will be coming in Thursday night into Friday morning. Get your cameras ready haha.

Best area for accumulation will be in the norther areas of Alabama and Georgia. There is likely to be no accumulation except on elevated and grassy areas in the central areas of both states as surface temperatures will be to warm.

In areas it will begin as a rain sleet mix and may change to snow briefly. In others areas it may begin as a sleet snow mix and change to all snow. Best time of this, from west to east will be between 3 AM and 10 Am Friday morning.

#Snow Georgia / Alabama Saturday February 16 2013 #gawx #alwx

As I have been mentioning most of this week on my Facebook page [ www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather ], there may be snow in the area. This morning my thinking has not changed. In FACT .. the National Weather Service in Peachtree city is now coming on board toward my thinking from past days. They at this time, 5 AM EST Friday February 15 2013 mention a bullseye of Snow of OVER 1 inch, south of Columbus by 1 PM EST Saturday afternoon. They also say less than 1 inch for areas between Atlanta and Columbus around 10 AM EST Saturday Morning. Timing and placement of this is not exact, so I will be monitoring things to narrow it down and posting it on Facebook and tweeting [ twitter.com/cataulagawx ] it when it snows at my location.. Right now I would say between 6 AM and 12 PM Saturday.

As mentioned above and from looking at data, there is indeed a sweet spot or bullseye in central Georgia. Columbus looks to get around 1 inch, and Macon about 2 inches if numerical data from the NAM-06z run is correct.




Athens Georgia should get under 1 inch and Atlanta just over a Tenth of an inch. There isn't much to go around but there could be more or less depending on how things set up and where. It remains to be seen if snow will accumulate on the ground, it will on cars and other surfaces.

Here's a few images showing 06z NAM profiles and Skew-t's for Columbus, Macon, Athens and Atlanta Georgia.










I first mentiond this on Facebook, on February 8 2013 and on this blog February 11 2013 here Possible Snow for Georgia and Alabama February 16/17

Possible #Snow for #Georgia and #Alabama February 16/17 - #gawx #alwx

At this time models show the potential yet again for snow in the south. Looking at things, this is the best I've seen since winter began. Depending on where the Low pressure develops and where it tracks will have a lot to say in this. With that said, this is not a forecast yet, but only an outlook. 'Right now' it looks like central Alabama and Georgia will see more in the way of snow than areas to the north. Totals range from a dusting to a Half inch in northern areas to an Inch and a half for central areas. Even as far south as Valdosta GA could see about an inch and Mobile Al seeing a dusting.

Here is one of the tools I use to help me figure out what is going on with the weather, whether it be severe storms or winter weather. As simply as I can explain, here's what I see for winter weather this weekend that I mentioned last week. For those that don't care to read all this, at this time models are back on track showing snow in and around our area this coming weekend February 16/17.

SOUNDING/SKEW-T

Red Shows Temperature
Green Shows dewpoint
Yellow shows area of Snow Growth
Blue shows Icing

The scale across the bottom is the temperature scale in Celsius. The 0 [zero] is 32F or freezing. What all this shows is, If there were moisture available during the time shown, in this case around 6 PM Saturday, it would likely fall as Snow. Models do show moisture being available during this time, at this time.

So, what the current GFS sounding is showing is Rain beginning around 12 PM Saturday, changing to Snow around 6 PM Saturday and continuing until about 9 PM. Total accumulation for the local area at this time is about 1 and a half inches at a 10 to 1 ratio , which means for every inch of liquid water, there would be 10 inches of snow. So there's not much here, but hopefully enough to give us a little snow.

Early look at 'Possible severe weather' for November 11-13 2012

This is a look ahead to November 11^th through the 13^th. As you know things in the weather world change on a dime. Should this verify we may see some strong to severe storms in the South & Southeast, Tennessee valley, Middle & Lower Mississippi valley back into the Central & Southern plains. We are entering our Second Severe Weather Season in these areas. I'll keep a watch on modeling in the coming days as we near these dates.

Surface to 500mb Bulk Shear in knots. Here it looks pretty impressive and could support severe weather possible Tornadoes. [denotes the change of wind direction with height a measure of vorticity]

Cross over winds in knots from Surface[red] to 500mb[blue] [winds form different direction that may cause spin]

Temperature at the surface during this possible event shows the contrast ahead of the system vs behind it. Notice the 70's and 80's ahead and the cooler 30' and 40' behind. This is the same setup we deal with in spring as warm and colder air clash.

While dew points are modest approaching the 60's it doesn't take high dew points this time of year to provide more energy for storms. [Dew point is the measure of moisture / fuel in the air so to speak]

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Georgia Drought Update - May 3 2012

As anticipated, the small area of drought improvement in Northeast Georgia last week, is all but gone this week.

Since my last drought update on April 23 2012, it has been quite dry across much of Georgia. Abnormally Dry conditions continue to cover much of North Georgia, with Moderate drought conditions beginning to creep back in.
Severe Drought conditions continue to hold in areas of Southeast and North central Georgia, ever so slowly creeping towards North Georgia.
Extreme Drought conditions now cover a large area of Georgia from North Central to the state line with Florida.
Exceptional Drought conditions, the highest level of drought, has expanded in Central Georgia while other areas experiencing Exceptional Drought in south Georgia remaining unchanged since my last report.

The overall breakdown on drought conditions in Georgia as of May 1 2012 are as follows:

The entire state of Georgia is experiencing Abnormally Dry conditions, 96.50 %, except for a small area mentioned in North GA.
Moderate Drought covers 88.56 % of the state.
Severe Drought covers 84.28 % of the state.
Extreme Drought covers 70.94 % of the state.
Exceptional Drought covers 25.85 % of the state.

Here's a graphic showing Drought conditions from April 17 thru May 1 2012

To show how dry it has been in Georgia and much of the southeast, here's a graphic showing how much rain these areas have seen since the beginning of 2012. Notice the areas of Red in Georgia and Florida; these areas have only received 50 to 25 percent of normal rainfall since the start of the year.

To put the above in perspective, here's a graphic showing departure from normal rainfall from May of 2011 thru April 2012. Much of Georgia is showing a deficit of 8 inches with areas in southwest Georgia pushing the 20 inch below normal mark.

Here's a look at precipitation or lack of for select areas around the state of Georgia through May 2 2012.

This first table shows total rainfall for the last 365 days:

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
            LAST 365 DAYS    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA         32.33        49.74       -17.41        65%
ATHENS          29.11        46.39       -17.28        63%
COLUMBUS        38.40        46.81        -8.41        82%
MACON           28.91        45.75       -16.84        63%

This table shows total rainfall fro the last 90 days:

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
           (LAST 90 DAYS)    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA         7.53         12.91        -5.38        58%
ATHENS          5.89         12.12        -6.23        49%
COLUMBUS        7.88         13.52        -5.64        58%
MACON           5.30         11.87        -6.57        45%

At this time it's looking like drought conditions will continue to expand and intensify for Georgia. I expect the same can be said for much of the southeast as I see no reason at this time not to think this. It appears a summer type pattern has set up early this year with scattered hit and miss showers and storms, and as earlier this week in Georgia, above average and record breaking high temperatures. Showers and storms of this type offer little relief for drought stricken areas, and what little rain may fall is quickly absorbed in the dry earth and back into the atmosphere.

Here's a look at Drought conditions across the rest of the U.S.:

And the latest Drought Outlook released May 3 2012:

For past Drought reports see the Drought Files. From 2007 to current date.

Tornado Outbreak / Widespread Severe Weather Friday and Saturday March 2-3 2012

Please folks, take this threat seriously. Since 12 AM this morning there has already been 118 total storm reports. 17 of those have been Tornado reports, 18 high wind reports of winds 74 MPH or higher [ Category 1 Hurricane winds 74 - 95 mph ] and 83 Large hail reports 2 inches and larger.

This may be my last BLOG post on this. I will be monitoring the situation in the SOUTHEAST and posting Updates on Twitter @CataulaGaWX and Facebook at Cataula Ga Weather.
Automatic posting of Watches and Warnings are posted at my other Twitter and Facebook accounts - Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 2:56 PM EST today, valid through Saturday morning.
Changes in these graphics from this morning at 12:42 AM EST now HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK AREA for SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE....Other changes in COVERAGE areas of the Moderate, and Slight risk are also indicated. These coverage areas are likely to shift EAST in future Updates.

Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms - Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms - Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms - Red Area, HIGH RISK area likely to see TORNADOES - Fuchsia Area.

Tornado Outlook: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. - 2% risk of a Tornado - Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado - Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado - Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado - Red Area. 30% risk of a Tornado - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds - Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds - Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds - Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail - Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail - Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail - Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Widespread Severe Weather Expected Friday and Saturday March 2-3 2012

First and foremost ... The main threat will be north of the local area, but the possibility remains for strong to severe storms.

As in all of my posts of this nature, this is not meant to alarm you, but to give you a heads up as to what may be heading to your area. I try real hard not to overstate a situation like this. On the same note, I will not downplay a severe risk either. If what I tell you fails to materialize, that's a good thing.

Okay, on with the show....

Around 11 PM last night after looking very quickly at data I became more concerned with what I saw from earlier. So much so I posted this on Facebook so my Columbus Georgia area followers would be aware of what may happen with the coming storms.

Listen up ... I am becoming more concerned for the local area after taking a quick peek at some data. While I still believe at this time it will not be as bad as areas to our north [that's a given], I do believe it will become quite active around here. I will be looking at more data in the hours to come and will have a blog update tomorrow moring. Always be weather alert even if a tornado threat isn't as high where you live !!

Some of my followers became alarmed and this was my reply.

I do believe as mentioned things may get active around here. What that will bring is anyone's guess. Down here the risks will not be a widespread as in areas to our north. There is still a chance of seeing isolated severe storms down here, and from what I looked at earlier that chance has increased from what I looked at even earlier. The timing looks like the most severe will come through in the AM hours of Saturday morning providing what I looked at holds together. Before this time stronger storms are possible. My concern is not meant to say Tornadoes will be a sure thing in the local area, only that the chances are now enhanced from my earlier thinking

I stand by my earlier thoughts.

Possibly verifying my thoughts is this from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning

GULF STATES...

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT APPEARS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE-WISE AS WIND SHIFT ENCOUNTERS MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF STATES. SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO FAVOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD CERTAINLY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS.

Possibly enhancing this is something I mentioned yesterday, a secondary low forming south of the main low. You can see this second low clearly in this graphic on the Texas / Oklahoma border.

[ Graphic from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - National Weather Service ]

Also of concern along with this is a 'Dry Line' tailing south from this second low as seen on this surface map issued this morning at 2:29 AM EST. This may also provide enhancement to the system allowing more warm moist air to feed in providing fuel.

This is very serious situation yet to unfold for many areas of the Ohio Valley down to the Gulf coast and East to the Carolinas.


Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning

Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms Red Area.

Tornado Outlook: 2% risk of a Tornado Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado Red Area. Red Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

-----

I'll be getting some sleep and will be back monitoring the situation around 4 PM EST today.

As usual when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Watching the Storm setup for Friday 3/2 and Saturday 3/3/2012

Wow .. what a wild couple of days we've already had, and it's not officially Spring yet !!

Here's a look at the Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings issued from February 29 at 12 AM thru March 1 2012 at 4 AM.

The reason I show you the above is because we have a similar setup beginning Friday into the weekend. My thinking at this time is, the area with the greatest coverage of Warned storms in the image above will likely shift south of where it was. To include Arkansas in the mid-west. In the south and southeast .. Tennessee, North Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia into South and North Carolina as the system progresses to the east. Hopefully like this last system, the deep south will be spared.

It's really difficult to tell at this time where and what this system will do. The main feature with this evolving system hasn't been on land out west long enough for models to really get a grasp on it. As you may have guessed, some models show it stronger while others don't. Some show it slower, while others faster. Some even hint at a secondary low forming south of the main low. All in all we're going to have to wait a bit longer to really know where it will go. One thing we do know regardless of where it goes, it will produce more severe weather. Just as models differ on timing and placement, Bufkit model data varies with strength. Some models show it being a low cape high shear event, while others have high cape and modest shear.

So ... as with other systems, we'll know more at a later time. For now, here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 1:52 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning This will change over the next day as the maps are reissued.

Categorical Outlook : Risk of Thunderstorms Green Area, Slight Risk of Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Severe Storms Red Area.

Probabilistic Outlook : Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

Here is one section of wording that caught my eye while reading the outlook that accompanied the graphics above :

NUMEROUS SVR WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR STG TORNADOES FROM EITHER SUPERCELLS OR QLCS-VORTEX MECHANISMS. AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

Thats quite impressive !!
Translation : Numerous SEVERE wind events are possible along with potential for STRONG tornadoes from either supercells or Quasi Linear Convective Systems mechanisms. At least a few wind events AT OR ABOVE 65 KT [ 75.95 MPH ] and long-track significant tornadoes are possible. - For simplicity, A Quasi Linear Convective Systems is a bow echo capable of producing straight line winds.

Some folks may also have to deal with flooding issues. Here's the 3 day rainfall prediction valid thru Sunday from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

I'll have an update on this later; so check back !

Watching Wednesday 2/29/2012 storm potential

Not much change in my thinking from yesterday on the mid week system. Still looking like the better chances of seeing severe storms will remain to the north of the local area in Georgia and Alabama, Wednesday afternoon early evening. We may see some stronger storms late Wednesday evening through early morning hours Thursday. This is yet to be determined as I'm not sure at this time where the approaching front will stall in the area, but it is possible as the main area shifts to the east. Depending on where the front stalls, it is not out of the question that showers and a possible strong storm will be around the area Thursday.

Temperatures will be in the upper 70's approaching the 80's, with dew points in the low to mid 60's for Wednesday and Thursday. A moist environment to say the least providing fuel for storm development.

The best timing for potential strong to severe storms will be from around 5:00 PM EST Wednesday through about Midnight. That's not to say we won't hear some rumbles of thunder earlier and the possibility of a stronger storm throughout the day Wednesday. The main threat at this time appears to be strong damaging winds; however, a quick spin up tornado can't be ruled out in the southeast.

Slight Risk area: The local area remains south of the 'slight risk' area.
As mentioned above, there is the possibility of strong storms to hang around Thursday as the main area shifts to the east. This is depicted in the below graphic from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC]. As you can see the 'slight risk' area [ shaded yellow ] dogleg from Central Georgia southwest through Alabama into Mississippi. This graphic is valid 5 AM Wednesday thru 5 AM Thursday.

Probabilistic Outlook area: The local area is now on the southern most fringe of the 5% probability of seeing severe storms, with the northern areas included in a 15% area at this time. A higher 30% risk area covers much of north Alabama, Mississippi and a small area in northwest Georgia, extending well north into Tennessee and the upper Ohio valley. This area will likely shift east as well as north to extend into the Carolinas early Thursday.

Looking ahead: Still ironing out the specifics for the Weekend system. This will become clearer once the mid-week system moves through. At this time I still see the potential for strong to severe storms. How strong, when and where will greatly depend on what the mid-week system does.

Check back for updates !

Update 1 - Latest on Storms Saturday 2/18 and Sunday 2/19

Update #1 - 4:00 PM EST 2/18/2012

Quick Update to show the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center this afternoon. The changes are subtle but do impact the local area and much of the southeast. For previous graphics see 'original post' below.

The primary hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail and lightning.

Slight Risk : Now includes Most of West Central Georgia over towards Macon in Central Georgia and South Towards Albany.

Tornado Probability : The local area including Columbus GA. and Phenix City Al is at a 2% risk of seeing a Tornado with the 5% area now encroaching on the southern counties in the local area.

Wind Probability : The local area including Columbus GA. and Phenix City Al. south towards Albany is now well within a 15% risk of Damaging Winds with a 5% Risk covering much of Georgia back into Alabama. The 30% risk area has shifted slightly northeast.

Hail Probability : The local area including Columbus GA., much of Central GA towards Macon and Phenix City Al. and much of central Alabama is at a 5% risk of seeing large hail.

Per the SPC concerning this update:

ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL GA WHERE THE GFS MOVES A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...A TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS CNTRL GA.

**********

Original Post at 9:38 AM EST 2/18/2012

The primary hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail and lightning.

I will add, looking at models today, it seems the threat for really severe storms has diminished somewhat. This does not mean that one or more will not occur so don't let your guard down.


Looking at soundings from the RUC this morning for 6 AM Saturday through 12 AM Sunday morning [ 18 hrs sounding ], looks like any stronger storms will hold off until this evening around 4 PM EST. This particular model is indicating at this time stronger storms late this evening. One such storm is possible around 10 PM EST. The Hodograph for this particular storm is showing Zero CAPE, Helicity 782 and Shear 59 m/s. As mentioned yesterday, this system is a low CAPE, moderate to high Shear event and this sounding shows that well.

The NAM sounding shows stronger storms holding off until around 6 PM EST, building through the evening where around 10 PM EST one of the possible stronger storms will push through, having Zero CAPE, Helicity 799 and Shear 52 m/s.

The GFS3 sounding shows stronger storms holding off until around 6 PM EST as well, then building through the evening where around 12 AM EST Sunday Morning one of the possible stronger storms will push through, having Zero CAPE, Helicity 775 and Shear 50 m/s.

All in all possible stronger storms should arrive in the area this evening around 5 PM EST. Continuing through the evening with stronger storms around 11 PM EST Saturday night continuing through the overnight into early morning hours of Sunday. Accompanying these thunderstorms will be lots of rain with the GFS showing storm totals of over 3 inches.


Here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center this morning....

Slight Risk : Extends north into the southern local area, including Columbus.

Tornado Probability : The Southern local area including Columbus is at a 2% risk of a Tornado.

Wind Probability : The local area including Columbus south is at a 15% risk of Damaging Winds with a 5% Risk covering the rest of the local area.

Hail Probability : The local area including Columbus, south and west of the city is at a 5% risk.

Here is this mornings outlook from the NWS Peachtree City, GA

Day One...Today and Tonight... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of central Georgia. Synopsis... A strong storm system will move out of Texas and into the southeast United States through tonight. Primary Hazards... The primary hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be isolated tornadoes...damaging winds...large hail and lightning. The area of concern is along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon to Louisville and between midnight tonight and 7 am Sunday morning. Discussion... A ridge of high pressure will strengthen over north and central Georgia today as rain spreads across the state today. The strength of the ridge will depend on how far north a warm front will move into central Georgia tonight. At this time the warm front is expected to reach a Columbus to Macon to Louisville line late tonight. Areas south of the warm front will destabilize with capes reaching 600. Significant shear coupled with the relatively high capes and dewpoints in the lower 60s will be sufficient for isolated severe thunderstorms to develop after midnight tonight.

And the excessive rainfall outlook from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

As is the case when severe weather threatens the area, I will be posting updates on Facebook and Twitter as much as I can and to the best of my ability.

My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


Previous posts :

Thursday, February 16, 2012 - Severe Weather Threat Saturday / Sunday - Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

Severe Weather Threat still on track Saturday / Sunday for Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

Severe Weather Threat still on track Saturday / Sunday for Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

My thinking at this time ... I will try and keep it simple ...

The severe weather threat for this Saturday is much like the last couple that have pushed through the southeast and local area during the past month, a low CAPE elevated SHEAR event. What this means is, while there may not be as much available convective energy [cape] as we would see during summertime thunderstorms, winds at different heights, speed and direction [shear] will make it possible for tornadoes to spin up out of the stronger storms that may move through the area. As with all situations such as this, it is not definitive this will happen. It just means the possibility is there for damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain and possibly a tornado.

Looking at data available at this time 10:56 AM 2/17/2012, it would appear things may get bumpy during the overnight hours Saturday night into the early AM hours of Sunday Morning. I know this is not what many want to hear. I wish I could control the weather and make it otherwise.

Here is what I see ..... While thunderstorms may be ongoing from late afternoon Saturday, things start to heat up around 6 PM EST. From that time, storms will continue to build as the combination of a warm front to the south pushes north, and a cold front from the west pushes east. It looks like some of the stronger storms will push through around 9 PM EST. and possibly again as the frontal passage pushes through the area around 3 AM EST. Again, this is going by data currently available. Timing will change as the system evolves.

As I have said before, no one knows to pin point accuracy where severe storms might occur, until they form. We can only watch the environment for development and track their paths.

The latest wording form the Storm Prediction Center includes the mention of a strengthening Low Level Jet stream which would help induce a Line Echo Wave Pattern and Bow Echos which are indicative of straight line winds and possible tornadoes. They also mention Embedded Supercells which as we know can produce tornadoes. Again, I am not saying a tornado will spin up, only that conditions 'may' become favorable.

Another aspect of this will be the potential for flooding in areas which are prone. 2 to 3 inches of rain are expected during this event. There is the possibility of higher amounts in isolated areas.

What we can hope for is good rain and more clouds ahead of the main line to help stabilize the atmosphere, thus reducing the severe weather threat.

See my earlier post for more information - Severe Weather Threat Saturday / Sunday - Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

As is the case when severe weather threatens the area, I will be posting updates on Facebook and Twitter as much as I can and to the best of my ability.

My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Here is a graphic from the NWS out of Peachtree City Georgia. I posted one earlier this morning from them which was released at 3:38 AM on Facebook. At that time the northern extent of the line was through central Troup county to the west. Now the line for potential severe weather has been pushed farther north.

A strong storm system will move toward Georgia bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday night. Some of these storms could produce damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain and possibly a tornado. The area of greatest threat is generally south of a Carrollton to Atlanta to Commerce line between 6 PM Saturday to 9 AM Sunday. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible across much of north and central Georgia by midday Sunday and could produce minor flooding.

Here is another graphic. This one from the NWS out of Birmingham Alabama highlighting the area likely to see Tornadoes out of this storm system should they occur.

Severe Tornado Parameter (12Z NAM) valid at midnight tomorrow night EST. Highest risk remains over South Alabama.