Hurricane Hunters are on the way to have a look at Patty. They'll continue southeast and have a look at Invest98L this afternoon.
Patty is located about 275 miles to the East-Northeast of the central Bahamas at 25.5North 72.0West with winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1006. Patty is drifting to the northeast at about 2 mph and this is expected to continue today with a turn toward the southwest expected on Saturday. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward about 70 miles form the center. There are 'no tropical storm watches or warnings'. Patty should begin to weaken and she should become a remnant low over the weekend. As mentioned in earlier post, Patty will be short lived.
Invest98L should become the 17th named storm of the 2012 Hurricane season. When it does, it will be Rafael. It will likely be a named system later today, if not by tomorrow. This system has an 80% chance of further development. Currently the system is generally showing better organization and is likely producing 'tropical storm winds' in the outer bands. While the system continues to show an open circulation on satellite, it should close off over the weekend and strengthening is expected. Currently computer models show Tropical Storm Rafael staying off the east coast and maintaining tropical storm strength in the coming days. In the near term, a tropical storm warning may be issued for areas of the Leeward Islands. In the long term, Bermuda should be monitoring this system for possible impacts in the area.
Hurricane season ends on November 30. With that said we have a newly formed tropical depression this morning, Tropical depression Sixteen. Currently located about 235 miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas at 25.4North 72.6West, TD 16 has winds of 35 mph, a central pressure of 1009 mb and is moving south at 1 mph. TD 16 is expected to have no impact on the US mainland and there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. In fact, little if any strengthening is anticipated with TD 16 and it is expected at this time to dissipate by Saturday.
While TD 16 does it's thing I'm also monitoring an area currently designated as Invest 98L. Currently this system has a 50 percent chance of further development in the coming days. Estimates currently locate 98L about 350 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands heading west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Heavy rainfall and squally winds are possible during the next couple of days in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles.
I'll keep an eye on both of these systems in the coming days for changes.
As for Tropical Depression 10 .. She is still headed West-Northwestward at 16mph with winds of 35mph and a central pressure of 1007mb. It is anticipated she will become a 'Tropical Storm' sometime today or on Friday. She will be named Joyce when that occurs. Currently situated at 13.8North 39.5West about 1045 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.
She should be no threat to the U.S. mainland, but the Island of Bermuda should be watching her closely as she may impact or come close to the area. Still remains to be seen but here's the latest computer models.
Also of interest at this time is yet another tropical wave which has exited the west coast of Africa. At this time it has a 10 percent chance of further developing as it continues to head west at about 15mph. You can see this area in yellow to the right in this image.
Isaac still a Tropical Storm at this hour 'expected to become a Hurricane within the next 48 hours'. Currently located at 15.5North 57.3West about 280 Miles East of Guadeloupe, with winds of 45mph and is heading West at 18mph. The central pressure is 1003mb or 29.62inches. Isaac is showing better organization on satellite imagery and beginning to get the classic look of tropical systems. Isaac has an eye as reported by Hurricane Hunters currently investigating with a diameter of 10 nautical miles [ 12 statute miles ].
Outer rainbands are currently impacting the Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Isaac will impact the Leeward Islands Today. Some strengthening may occur before landfall. Tropical Storm winds which extend outward 45 miles form the center of Isaac will be felt before the center makes landfall. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 8 inches are expected in some areas before Isaac crosses and makes his way into the Western Caribbean Thursday morning.
* A 'Hurricane Watch' is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona Westward to the Haiti Dominican Republic Southern Border.
* A Tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe and St. Martin and surrounding Islands as well as St. Kits, Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
* A tropical Storm 'Watch' is in effect for the North Coast of the Dominican Republic from Haiti Dominican Republic Northern Border Eastward to North of Isla Saona.
* Interest in and around these areas including Hispaniola and Cuba should be monitoring the progress of Isaac.
* I urge interest in Florida, the Eastern Gulf coastal areas and the East coast to remain vigilante as the forecast track of Isaac remains uncertain at this time.
I continue to watch [Invest 96L] in the East Atlantic about 650 Miles West-Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave has winds last reported of 30mph and is located at 11.5North 34.5West moving to the West-Northwest. As of 2:00 AM EDT 96L has a 90 percent chance of becoming our next depression or storm 'later today'. Once named it will be Joyce. The forecast track at this time remains uncertain. Next update from NHC on this system 8:00 AM EDT
I'll be keeping a close watch on both of these systems in the days to come.
We now have Tropical Depression Nine in the Atlantic. It is still early and the forecast track remains uncertain at this time as to possible impacts on the U.S. mainland. We do know that TD Nine is headed for the Lesser Antillies and the Caribbean. We also know TD Nine is expected to strengthen and become Tropical Storm Isaac Today. Once passed the Lesser Antilles and in the Caribbean, it is expected Tropical Storm Isaac will become Hurricane Isaac sometime Thursday.
As of 8:00 AM EDT TD 9 has winds of 35 MPH and is headed West at 20 mph. Located at 15.1North 51.8West or about 645 miles East of Guadeloupe. TD 9 is expected to continue moving west for the next couple of days with a slight turn Northwestward there after.
Here's the latest computer model plot for what is Tropical Depression Nine at 8:00 Am EDT August 21, 2012. You can find all information on this System on the Tropical Weather Page. Information updated Automatically.
Hot on the heals of TD Nine is Invest 96L. As of 8:00 AM EDT this morning, this tropical wave has a 60% chance of further development. Will it become Tropical Depression Ten ? Will it become Tropical Storm Joyce ? Time will tell. I'm also watching 95L off the coast of Mexico in the Gulf. This system should meander for a few days before dissipating. I keep an eye on it just in case.
Tropical Depression Seven [TD7] looking a little better organized at this time on satellite imagery. Currently TD7 is located about 1245 Miles east of the Windward Islands at 13.7 North 49.5 West. TD7 has winds of 35 MPH is moving West at a fast clip of 23 MPH and has a central pressure of 1009 MB or 29.80 inches. It is uncertain if TD7 will be able to maintain it's current structure at this time as it continues to move toward the Caribbean. There is a large swath of dry air to the north and ahead of this system with hints of some being pulled in. Remnants of what's left of Florence due north may also be contributing some wind shear in the area at this time. It seems the only thing TD7 has going for it at this time are warm sea surface temperatures. I'll keep an eye on TD7 for further development in the coming days.
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Invest 93L is struggling at this time as it moves over cooler water and has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm at this time. While conditions at this time seem unfavorable for further development, I'll continue to keep an eye on this tropical wave.
Spaghetti Models for Tropical Depression Seven #TD7 and Invest #93L
INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS OF 8:00 AM EDT...
* A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS / NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
* A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
* A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...GRAND CAYMAN...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
Tropical Storm Ernesto no threat to the U.S.....Ernesto looking stronger on satellite at this hour with deep convection beginning to build around the center and on his eastern side. Currently Ernesto is located at 15.2 North 81.0 West about 145 Miles EAST of Cabo Gracias A Dios on the Honduras / Nicaragua border and has sustained winds of 50 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West at 12 MPH. The central Pressure is 1003 MB or 29.62 inches. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.
Ernesto is expected to slowly strengthen in the short term. In the long term over the next 36 to 48 hours Models show Ernesto 'approaching' Hurricane Strength and make a turn to the West-Northwest. Ernesto is 'still' expected to make landfall in or around Belize along the southern Yucatan. From there Ernesto will cross the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge in the Bay of Campeche and head toward Mexico. Timing and strength of Ernesto at landfall remain uncertain but feel the first landfall in or around Belize will occur in about 48 hours and a landfall in 'Central or South Mexico' in about 90 hours.
Here's the most recent Model Plot for Tropical Storm Ernesto
Florence NOW a Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression Florence continues to weaken at this hour and is expected to further weaken in the coming days becoming a remnant Low in the next few days. Currently Florence is located at 16.2 North 38.8 West about 1610 Miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands and has sustained winds of 35 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West at 12 MPH. The central Pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 inches. We'll keep an eye on her over the next few days.
Update 11:00 AM EDT - FLORENCE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
LOCATION...16.4N 40.2W
ABOUT 1515 MI...2440 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
This will be the last Update on Florence.
Here's the most recent Model Plot for Tropical Depression Florence
UPDATE 7:48 AM 8/4/2012 Tropical Depression Six is NOW Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Ernesto
Ernesto continues his Westward track at this hour. As of 11 PM EDT Ernesto has winds of 50 MPH and is Moving West at 18 MPH with a Central Pressure of 1003 MB / 29.62 inches. The current position of Ernesto is 13.9 North 65.6 West for those plotting along.
At this time Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to Maintain his current track, forward speed and intensity for the next couple of days. On his current track Ernesto will move through the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea and approach Jamaica on Sunday. Interests in Jamaica should monitor Ernesto closely. A 'Tropical Storm Watch may be Issued' for areas of Jamaica on Saturday.
Forecast models show Ernesto entering the southeast Gulf of Mexico Monday or Tuesday possibly becoming a Weak Hurricane before making landfall or skirting the Yucatan Peninsula. 'Much remains uncertain at this time' if in fact Ernesto will maintain the westward track and intensity during this time and into the coming week. We urge all along the U.S. Gulf Coast to remain vigilant!
Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Storm Ernesto as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.
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Tropical Depression SIXUPDATE 7:48 AM 8/4/2012 Tropical Depression Six is NOW Tropical Storm Florence
Farther out in the Atlantic offshore of Africa about 240 Miles West Southwest of the Southern most Cape Verde Islands we have newly developed 'Tropical Depression SIX'. Currently Located at 13.8 North 27.8 West .. TD6 has sustained winds around 35 MPH with gusts around 45 MPH and is moving to the West Northwest at about 16 MPH. The central pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 Inches
Currently this Well defined Low Pressure Area has gotten it's act together, however drier air and cooler waters may inhibit further development in the coming days as it moves West Northwestward. I'll be watching this system in the days ahead.
Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.
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Florida Disturbance 91L
Closer to home we have a disturbance off the Southeast Coast of Florida. Currently designated Invest 91L. Computer models suggest this disturbance will move North / Northeast in the coming days and interact with land late Saturday or Sunday somewhere along South Florida possibly crossing and re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico. 'Much remains uncertain' if this disturbance has enough time to become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm due to it's current location adjacent to the Florida Peninsula. One thing is certain, it will be a rainmaker.
Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 2 PM EDT August 3 2012.
Global models continue to show steady development of 'the 30% Chance' over the next few days as it meanders in warm waters between Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula. Upper level winds are expected to diminish providing a more favorable environment for the Chance to develop. At this time the GFS and the ECMWF models are similar in taking the Chance into the Gulf of Mexico and developing a low pressure. They also show the Chance moving northwestward with possible interaction with the Yucatan peninsula while still an area of Low pressure. We think after the interaction with the Yucatan, Chance could possibly reorganize, turn to a North / Northeast trajectory towards Florida, crossing Central Florida and exiting into the Atlantic.
In fact, the GFS shows a broad area of Low pressure in the Yucatan peninsula area on Friday 6/22/12 and brings it to the Florida peninsula Gulf coast around Tampa and the Big Bend area on Tuesday 6/26/12. Possibly Tropical Storm Debby.
It then crosses Florida and exits the east coast into the Atlantic late Tuesday night early Wednesday morning where it looks to regain strength and possibly become a weak Hurricane.
Also of interest is the possible development of another Low in the Bay of Campeche around June 26. We'll see how that goes as we track the first storm expected to impact Florida on June 26.
At this time there remains considerable uncertainty as to what will occur. I will have a better handle on things once a Low forms. One thing is certain; Areas of Florida and Cuba will see some heavy rain with this disturbance as it evolves.
Here's the 5 day predicted rainfall amounts valid 8 PM Thursday June 21 thru 8 PM Tuesday June 26.
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30 and produced a total of 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. This level of activity matched NOAA's predictions and continues the trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.
Surprisingly, none of the first eight tropical storms reached hurricane status, a record since reliable reports started in 1851. Hurricane Irene's effects in the Caribbean and the United States led to 43 deaths and accounted for the bulk of this season's damage at $7.3 billion. Irene was the first landfalling hurricane in New Jersey in 108 years. Hurricane Katia had far-reaching effects causing severe weather in Northern Ireland and Scotland and power blackouts as far east as Saint Petersburg in Russia. Tropical Storm Lee caused major flooding in Pennsylvania, New York and into the Canadian provinces of Quebec and Ontario. The strongest storm of the season was Ophelia, which reached category four strength in the Atlantic Ocean east of Bermuda.
An integral part of NOAA's ability to monitor and predict hurricane formation and movement is the data that is provided by the GOES satellite, with its visible imagery, infrared sensors, and sounding capabilities. This animations merges both the visible and infrared imagery taken by the GOES East (GOES-13) satellite every 30 minutes over the Northern Hemisphere from June 1 -- November 28, 2011.
_______
Active 2011 hurricane season breaks 'Hurricane Amnesia'
Irene the first hurricane to hit U.S. in three years; Northeast reminded it’s also vulnerable
November 28, 2011
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends Wednesday, having produced a total of 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. This level of activity matched NOAA’s predictions and continues the trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.
The 19 tropical storms represent the third-highest total (tied with 1887, 1995, and 2010) since records began in 1851 and is well above the average of 11. However, the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes is only slightly above the average of six and two, respectively. This year’s totals include a post-storm upgrade of Tropical Storm Nate to hurricane status, and the addition of a short-lived, unnamed tropical storm that formed in early September between Bermuda and Nova Scotia. This unnamed storm, along with several other weak, short-lived named storms, could have gone undetected without modern satellite technology.
Irene was the lone hurricane to hit the United States in 2011, and the first one to do so since Ike struck southeast Texas in 2008. Irene was also the most significant tropical cyclone to strike the Northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991.
“Irene broke the ‘hurricane amnesia’ that can develop when so much time lapses between landfalling storms,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “This season is a reminder that storms can hit any part of our coast and that all regions need to be prepared each and every season.”
As far as landfalling major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 with top winds of 111mph and greater) are concerned, the lull continues. 2011 marks a record six straight years without one hitting the United States. The last one to do so was Wilma in 2005. Nonetheless, wind is not the only threat with tropical systems as proven by Irene and Lee, which caused deadly and destructive flooding. On average, more than half of the fatalities related to tropical systems are due to flooding. continue reading http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111128_endofhurricaneseason_2011.html
From a system yet to fully develop this past Friday, to a Hurricane today.
Rina intensified rather quickly in the warm waters of the Caribbean. At 5 PM EDT on Sunday she was a mere Tropical Depression. Later Sunday night at 11 PM EDT Rina became a Tropical Storm with max sustained winds of 40 MPH. 15 hours later on Monday Rina becomes a Hurricane with max sustained winds of 75 MPH as of 2 PM EDT.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
Check the Tropical Weather Page for Graphics, Computer Models, and more information.
After dissipating into an area of disturbed weather for one day, Ophelia has once again found herself in more favorable conditions. Ophelia is still expected to stay out in the Atlantic, but she does bear watching. You can find updated information on Tropical Depression Ophelia as well as Tropical Storm Philippe on the Tropical Weather page.
Drought conditions have worsened for much of Georgia, in the way of coverage. Here at the homestead I have had no appreciable rain since early August. I did have a quick rain shower yesterday Aug. 31 in the form of 0.11 inches, which wasn't enough to do a thing for the drought. Before this my last rain was on Aug. 11 and amounted to 0.29 inches. I finished the month of August below the average of 3.79 inches for my area with 3.52 inches. Columbus Ga to my south finished with over 5 inches.
I missed reporting last week as all eyes were glued to Hurricane Irene. This graph below shows how bad things have gotten for Georgia since August 16 through August 30 2011. The area of extreme drought now covers most of the state.
I wont bore you with further details except to say, we need rain. We are watching an area in the Gulf of Mexico which is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend that may, may, bring some much needed rain to Georgia. It is to early still to tell if this will happen. Needless to say, some areas of the south and southeast are expected to receive a lot of rain from this system should it develop the way models are predicting.
While we watch all of this unfold, we are still keeping an eye on Hurricane Katia which is still in open waters of the Atlantic. Models are thinking she will not make landfall in the U.S., but as before, it's early and things can and will change.
Models differ widely on the development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. Some bring the system in to Texas, while others bring it in to Louisiana and still others take it across north Florida and up the eastern seaboard. The only consensus, something will form in the Gulf Of Mexico.
Here is a run from the 06z GFS this morning at 72 hours out for September 3 2011. notice where the system is located in the gulf and a tightly rapped Hurricane Katia in the Atlantic. -
Here is the 00z UKMET for the same time frame, notice the system in the gulf a little farther west and south -
The 00z GGEM at 84 Hours for September 3 2011 shows the system impacting Texas -
The 00z Euro running slower at 168 hours for September 7 2011 still has the system in the gulf -
The NOGAPS running even slower developing the system in the Gulf of Mexico, showing it down around the Bay of Campeche at 108 hours September 4 2011 and dropping it all together for the next couple of runs.
These models agree that something will form in the Gulf of Mexico. They also show very well what will become Hurricane Katia still out in the Atlantic as late as September 7 2011. Where and what Katia will do is still open to interpretation, but models suggest she will miss the U.S. at this time.
Post Tropical Irene: Irene continues to track North-Northeast at about 25MPH with Sustained winds of 35MPH, about 100 miles northwest of Houlton Maine. Current position 47.4N 68.8W with a central pressure of 981 millibars. The remaining threat from former hurricane Irene will be rain which may cause flooding.
Tropical Storm Jose: Update: 1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011...JOSE DISSIPATES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...REMNANTS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
Jose is currently tracking North at 23MPH with sustained winds of 40MPH and poses no threat to any landmass, and is expected to lose it's tropical characteristics sometime later today. Current position 37.2N 64.7W 340 miles North of Bermuda, 515 miles South of Nova Scotia, with a central pressure of 1008 millibars.
Tropical Depression 12 [formerly AL92]: As mentioned earlier, this is the tropical system we will be watching in the coming days, week, provided another more robust system doesn't form in the near.
Tropical depression 12 really kicked it into high gear last night and early today. Yesterday she was given only a 40% chance of developing in to a depression.
Currently located at 9.4N 26.3W or about 395 miles South-Southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands, moving West at about 15MPH, with sustained winds of 35MPH and a central pressure of 1009 millibars. TD12 should become a tropical storm sometime today, if not, when she does she will be named Tropical Storm Katia.
Here are a couple Model plots for Tropical Depression 12 / Tropical Storm Katia -
TD12 2amedt August 29 2011
TD12 636amedt August 29 2011
It is much to early to tell what or where soon to become Hurricane Katia will go. Should Katia continue on the NHC forecast track she may, and I stress this, Katia 'may' impact the east coast of the U.S. Katia may well recurve, being a fish storm and impact no land what so ever. As stated, to early to know at this time and still at a minimum 2 weeks away. I'll be watching.
Here is the plot of Tropical Storm Franklin's short life..
And here is the last report
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011
...FRANKLIN LOSES TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.5N 51.8W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Here is the latest on Tropical Depression SEVEN possibly becoming Tropical Storm Gert later today or tonight.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA BY TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 63.2W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL APPROACH BERMUDA
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES...BASED
ON RECENT NOAA BUOY REPORTS.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
Yes the fickle girl is back though not as strong as she once was. Emily is now a Tropical Depression once again after making her way into some warmer waters of the east coast of Florida.
Emily is forecast once again to strengthen a little and head out in to the open waters of the Atlantic as she was to do once before. Will she do this, I have know Idea as she has not been reasonable in her journey thus far.
Later this week we should see another wave become better organized after exiting the coast of Africa. If this loop is any indication, she may well develop in the next couple of days and be a long tracked storm. Already there is a circulation.
The National Hurricane Center as of 8pm EDT July 30 2011 is giving this wave a 90% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48hrs.
I believe from what I see, a Tropical Depression will form sometime in the early morning hours EDT. The tropical wave at this time is elongated along a west northwest to east southeast axis and still has no well-defined center. It appears there may be two areas within fighting to see which will remain. Until there is a defined center, it is hard to determine where this tropical systems track will take it. Computer models are coming more inline, but still differ enough that no one knows where it will go at this time.
This system is becoming better organized as seen from this infrared image.
The disturbance/wave currently designated as Invest AL90 continues to look better and more organized this evening, but still lacks a closed defined low level circulation. I think a closed circulation will form within the next 48 hours as the system slowly enters warmer more favorable waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Even if it were to develop a well defined circulation, it is unlikely to be upgraded to tropical depression Don before a recon aircraft verifies this during a scheduled mission tomorrow.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this tropical wave a 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
Here are the computer model forecast tracks for this system as it moves west northwest. Texas should be watching this system closely at this time. Should the track into Texas verify, it will be welcomed as they are experiencing a severe drought over much of the state.
I've been watching this develop along with many others for the past couple of days. As most tropical disturbances do, Bret began as ... well, a disturbance or area of interest, then became a tropical depression, and now a tropical storm. Should TS Bret strengthen it would then become a hurricane. This is the normal life cycle of the development of a hurricane. TS Bret is not expected to become a hurricane.
Tropical systems do not always follow what is normal or expected. Some go from and area of interest straight to a tropical storm. Some even strengthen so rapidly they go from tropical depression to hurricane status by the time data is collected and updates released.
Hurricane season started on June 1st and ends on November 30th. So far for the Atlantic basin in 2011 it has been relatively quiet with only 2 named storms, Arlene and now Bret. We are no moving into what some of us call the real beginning of hurricane season, the latter part of July into the beginning of August.
This is very conducive for tropical system and hurricane formation as in any year, but more so as the oceans waters become warmer. We have a long way to go this hurricane season. It may be a slow start, but I think it will go out with a bang, or two or three, possibly four major storms impacting the U.S..
Here is the infrared satellite view of Bret. I took the liberty of circling tropical storm Bret for you.
Here are the forecast locations and max wind speeds for tropical storm Bret.
Here is the forecast track map for tropical storm Bret. Not much has changed from my earlier post when Bret was still a tropical depression.
As I also mentioned in my earlier post, Bret is forecast to go out into the Atlantic and have no impact on the U.S. mainland. While this is the forecast, things can change so I'll be keeping an eye on tropical Storm Bret. We could use some more rain to help with our current drought situation but, I dont think it will come by way of tropical storm Bret.
