97L Tropical Wave / Disturbance Gulf of Mexico / Remnants of Post Tropical Storm Debby

Update: All ares of interest have dissipated. For an automatically updated Tropical Weather Outlook, see the Tropical Weather Page

Original Post below

I've been watching an area of disturbed weather currently designated 97L for the past few days way out in the Atlantic. While it's a bit early for action down that way from my experience, this hurricane season as a whole at this point has been early . I'll keep an eye on this area currently designated 97L in the coming days for further possible development.

As of 8:00 AM EDT June 30 2012:

Currently designated 97L, this area of activity has a 10 percent chance of becoming a Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours. Currently located about 600 miles East of the Windward Islands, Maximum sustained winds are 29 MPH extending out about 52 miles. Central pressure was 1013MB. See image below for current computer models tracks.

An area of disturbed weather in the Western Gulf of Mexico continues to produce clouds and some thunderstorms as it moves Northward around 5 to 10 miles per hour. This area has near 0 percent chance of becoming a Tropical storm in the next 48 hours.

The remnants of post tropical storm Debby continue to show shower activity. This area has a near 0 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours as conditions remain unfavorable. Located about 575 miles South of Halifax Nova Scotia, the remnants are moving East Northeastward at about 20 MPH.

Tropical Depression #Debby Less Organized Heading into Atlantic | Full Track | June 27 2012

Debby is back on track moving east/northeast after a short jog to the southeast late last night. She is now heading E/NE at 10MPH and positioned at 29.6N / 81.0W or about 25 miles Southeast of St. Augustine Florida. Her winds are still 35MPH and her central pressure is 998MB or 29.47 inches.

Debby's track as of 2:00 Am EDT June 27 2012: Shows track from beginning North of the Yucatan peninsula as a low pressure system on June 22 2012 designated 'Invest 96L'. Becoming Tropical Storm Debby on June 23 2012. Then becoming a Tropical Depression shortly after landfall on the Florida west coast June 26 2012.

Debby is expected to continue on her current track to the east northeast and enter the Atlantic Ocean sometime today / this morning. Once in the Atlantic her forward speed will increase she may intensify in the coming days. It is uncertain at this time how strong Debby may become, but she does have potential energy to work with from the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. We will continue to monitor Debby over the coming days.

Most of the rains early this morning remain off the east coast of Florida, with a few bands to the south still making their way through Central and Southern Florida. In the central and south, some rain heavy at times may be expected and may cause issues from training over the same areas until Debby moves farther away.

Heavy rains over the past few days are expected to continue to cause flooding issues due to runoff into local creeks and rivers. If you live around any of these areas it is requested that you monitor conditions closely.

All Coastal Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been discontinued. There remains a few areas on the west coast of Florida at this time under coastal flood warnings. Areas in north Florida and Southeast Georgia remain under Flood warnings. Check with your local National Weather Service offices to see if you are under any of these Warnings here - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

Tropical Storm #Debby on the move again / Forecast Track - June 26 2012

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains in Effect from Mexico Beach southward to Englewood.

Debby continues moving eastward at this hour while maintaining her strength. Heavy Rains are expected to continue in Northern Florida and Southeast Georgia.

Currently Debby is centered about 70 Miles West of Cedar Key Florida [ Levy County ] and moving East around 3 MPH. Sustained winds this hour are still 40 MPH. Tropical Storm Force winds extend out about 240 Miles from her center located at Latitude 28.9 NORTH Longitude 84.2 WEST, and a central pressure of 993 MB or 29.32 Inches.

The Forecast Track for Debby continues to move her to the East and Northeast making Landfall in the Big Bend area around Cedar Key Florida. Time of landfall is still uncertain at this time. Debby will still be a Tropical Storm while making Landfall. After making landfall Debby is expected to loose some of her strength while over land, and become a Tropical Depression. Debby is then expected to continue to the Northeast reemerging in the Atlantic and may once again become a Tropical Storm. The re-intensification of Debby remains uncertain at this time due to her interaction with land. We'll keep a close eye on Debby!

Current Forecast Track as of 11 Am EDT

For more information on Debby and other Tropical weather, see the Tropical Weather Page


While winds with Debby have had minimal impacts, the big story is the rains associated with her. Numerous reports of Flooding and Flash Flooding have been reported in North Florida due to the rains and storm surge. The hardest hit area at this time is Wakulla County where the Sopchoppy River near Sopchoppy Florida is expected to crest at 41 feet; Flood stage is 28 feet. The National Weather Service in Tallahassee at this time reports the Sopchoppy River Gauge has Failed due to impacts from debris. Last report received was at 9:00 PM EDT Last night with a level of 31.41 Feet. Surrounding counties in the area also affected are Southeast Liberty county, North Franklin county, South Leon county, South Jefferson county, and Northwest Taylor county. See Tropical Storm #Debby Flooding / Road Closures For images.

Rainfall totals form 3 and 7 AM EDT this morning June 26 2012

This is from 8 Am This morning

At 4:00 AM EDT The National Weather Service in Tallahassee issued a Flood Warning for Urban areas and small Streams in the following Locations until 10:00 AM EDT: JEFFERSON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...SOUTH CENTRAL LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...MADISON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN FLORIDA...WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

At 5:40 AM EDT The National Weather Service in Jacksonville issued the following Statement: FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...GEORGIA...ST MARY`S RIVER AT MACCLENNY AFFECTING BAKER...NASSAU...CAMDEN ANDCHARLTON COUNTIES...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...SUWANNEE RIVER AT WHITE SPRINGS AFFECTING COLUMBIA AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST....MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

You can find information on Florida Road closures here - Florida's Statewide 511 Website

Tropical Storm #Debby Flooding / Road Closures

4:00 AM EDT - 3:00 AM CDT 6/26/2012

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM MEXICO BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

Debby is nearly stationary at this time, continuing to pour heavy amounts of rain in already flooded areas of North Florida. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION, as Debby will remain in the area for a few more days dropping more rain on already flooded areas. At this time the area hardest hit is Wakulla county, Southeast Liberty county, North Franklin county, South Leon county, South Jefferson county, and Northwest Taylor county.

Extreme flooding concerns at this hour along the Sopchoppy River near Sopchoppy Florida where it is expected to crest at 41 feet, Flood stage is 28 feet. At 9:00 PM EDT / 8:00 PM CDT June 25 2012, a level was observed of 31.41 Feet. Voluntary evacuations in Wakulla county for homes along the Sopchoppy River, upper St. Marks River, the Ochlockonee River, and low lying areas throughout the county are RECOMMENDED.

Current Road Closures in Florida as of 3 AM EDT / 2 AM CDT June 26 2012:

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-377 [ALL AREA] x[SR375] [SOPCHOPPY] - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER - CAUTION WATER COMING OVER ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: US-98 x[BOTTOMS RD] [PANACEA] - CAUTION WATER COMING OVER ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: CR-375 x[SYFRETTE CREEK RD] [SOPCHOPPY] - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER - CAUTION WATER COMING OVER ROADWAY - CAUTION ROADWAY IS CLOSED USE ALTERNATE ROUTE

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-30 x[RUNNING DEER LN] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: SOPCHOPPY HWY x[ALLEN-GREEN RD] [SOPCHOPPY] - ROADWAY CLOSED NO TRAFFIC PERMITTED - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: LOWER BRIDGE RD x[TIGER HAMMOCK RD] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-30 x[WALKER FARM RD] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: SHELL POINT RD (CR-367) x[SPRING CREEK HWY (CR-365)] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - ROADWAY CLOSED EXCEPT TO RESIDENCE ONLY - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: SURF RD [MASHES SAND] x[SR-30] [PANACEA] - ROADWAY CLOSED EXCEPT TO RESIDENCE ONLY - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-30 x[WILDWOOD DR] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - EASTBOUND LANE UNDER WATER - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: PORT LEON DR x[NEWPORT RD] [ST MARKS] - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

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FRANKLIN COUNTY: ISLAND DR [ST GEORGE ISLAND BRIDGE] x[US98] [EASTPOINT] - BRIDGE CLOSED CURFEW ENFORCED AT 8:00 PM NO ENTRY ONTO THE ISLAND BY ANYONE

FRANKLIN COUNTY: ALLIGATOR DR x[SR-30] [ALLIGATOR POINT] - ROADWAY CLOSED CURFEW ENFORCED AT 8:00 PM NO ENTRY TO ALLIGATOR POINT BY ANYONE

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JEFFERSON COUNTY: SR-59 x[WHITEHOUSE RD] [LLOYD] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

JEFFERSON COUNTY: SPRING HOLLOW DR x[COOPERS POND] [MONTICELLO] - ROAD IS CLOSED USE ALTERNATE ROUTE - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

JEFFERSON COUNTY: US-27 (SR-20) x[US-19 (SR-57)] [CAPPS] - 3 TO 4 FOOT DEEP WATER ACROSS ROADWAY

JEFFERSON COUNTY: SR-30 x[HELLS HALF ACRE] [LAMONT] - TREE IN ROADWAY, COMPLETE ROAD BLOCK

Tropical Storm #Debby Still Stationary - June 25 2012

The timing and forecast track for Debby is still uncertain. Both GFS and ECMWF Models are coming into better agreement at this time in keeping Debby Stationary, or nearly so for the next day or so. [ See also: Sunday, June 24, 2012 - Tropical Storm #Debby - Track has changed considerably ]

At this time Debby remains Stalled / Stationary this morning and has been for some time now. Currently winds associated with Debby are 50mph sustained, down from our earlier report of 60mph. Debby is currently located about 90 miles south/southwest of Apalachicola Florida [ 28.6N 85.8W ], and minimum central pressure is 993mb.

This morning appears to be a lull with Debby. Later today Debby may undergo some regeneration associated with convection and may re-intensify. During this time winds with Debby will once again 'increase'. Due to the environment at hand, we can expect more severe weather in the form of thunderstorms and Tornadoes. 20 Tornadoes were reported yesterday, and 5 Saturday on the Florida Peninsula. Also compounding this will be 'flash flooding' and 'flooding' from heavy rains which will fall over the same areas associated with rainbands, and coastal flooding due to 'storm surge'.

At this time there is a 'Tropical Storm Warning' from the Mississippi / Alabama state line east through the Florida Big Bend and South to around Boca Grande and Charlotte Harbor.
A 'Tornado Watch' for Northern and Central Florida and adjacent Coastal Waters until 2:00 Pm EDT. This watch will likely be extend sometime later today.
A 'Flood Watch' for portions of Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia through Tuesday Morning and 'Flood Warnings' for various areas in Florida and Georgia.

You can find more information on Tropical Storm Debby on the Tropical Weather Page where Information and Graphics update automatically when changes are issued.

You can also find me on Twitter @cataulagawx .. and .. Facebook Cataula GA Weather. I share weather related information there as well.

Tropical Storm #Debby - Track has changed considerably - June 24 2012

It doesn't look as if Debby will be heading west as many thought earlier. Debby is now expected to impact areas of the Florida Panhandle to the Big Bend area. While Debby's track STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN, focus has now shifted to the coastal areas of the southeast. In my post on Thursday, June 21, 2012 Tropical Disturbance Gulf of Mexico, Possible Tropical Storm - June 23-26, I mentioned that Debby would likely impact areas of Florida. I preferred this area over a Texas landfall.

Areas along the Panhandle of Florida, the Big Bend area and south along the west Coast should remain EXTRA cautious due to the proximity of Debby and her uncertain forecast. The Forecast track of Debby remains Highly uncertain at this time and all residents along the coastal area are urged to remain aware of the situation.

Tropical Storm Warnings Continue for Areas from the Mississippi / Alabama State line EASTWARD to the Suwanne River in Florida.

Tropical Storm WATCHES have been extended SOUTHWARD along the WEST COAST of FLORIDA to ENGLEWOOD.

Tropical Storm Warnings for Louisiana have been discontinued at this time.
Tropical Storm Warnings from the Mouth of the Pearl River, West to Morgan City have been discontinued.


At this time Debby continues to move ever so slowly to the Northeast at 3 MPH. Sustained winds are Still around 60 MPH with higher gusts in and around the area. Tropical Storm Force winds Extend outwards up to 200 Miles from Debby, whose center is now located at 28.4N 85.8W, or about 205 Miles East Southeast of the Mississippi River, and /or 100 Miles South Southwest of the Apalachicola River.

Debby is not expected to move much in the next day or so. Debby will continue to bring heavy and copious amounts of rain to Florida, South Georgia and areas of South Alabama.
Many Gulf coastal areas of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana are under Flash Flood Watches and Flood Watches. Storm Surge may also become a hazard during this time.

Here is the latest possible track Debby will take as of 5 PM EDT June 24 2012.

You can find more information on Tropical Storm Debby on the Tropical Weather Page where Information and Graphics update automatically when changes are issued.

You can also find me on Twitter @cataulagawx .. and .. Facebook Cataula GA Weather. I share weather related information there as well.

I will be posting information concerning Tropical Storm Debby on Twitter and Facebook through the overnight Sunday and morning hours Monday.

Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico - June 23 2012

Hurricane Hunter aircraft sampled winds of 60.9 MPH in the east quadrant around Tropical Storm Debby.

Here's the latest computer model plots showing where Tropical Storm Debby may go. It is still early so this will change in the coming days.

I'll have the Tropical Weather Page updated later with current information from various sources. So be sure and check back often.

Here's the 5 PM EDT / 4 PM CDT release from the National Hurricane Center

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

80% Chance 2,1,3 Split | Invest96L

Looking at satellite imagery early this morning, Chance appears to be a little more east than where she was earlier. Also seeing more convection flare up this morning in the northeast quadrant and shower and thunderstorm development is on the increase. At this time elements are in place for Chance to continue developing and we expect her to be named in the next 24 hours. It looks as if the only thing holding her back at this time is organization. Currently the NHC shows Chance at 80% for further development in the next 48 hours.

Latest data showed winds of 30 knots/35mph which if sustained would fit the Tropical Storm category. Due to the disorganized nature of the system, it's likely the reason why Chance is yet to be classified as such. Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Chance today, flying out around 18Z / 2 PM EDT. As long as the flight is not canceled and collected data analyzed, we should know by early evening today if we have a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Debby.

Satellite imagery from early this morning shows what appears to be a closed center of circulation trying to form.

Computer Models once again are having a hard time determining where Chance may go in this early stage. Referring to the 2,1,3 Split above, 2 models have her going East, 1 to the North and 3 have her heading West. With much uncertainty at this time, we are not comfortable in forecasting where a possible landfall will take place. We suggest at this time all areas along the Gulf Coast keep a close eye on this developing system.

Invest 96L in Gulf of Mexico more organized / Tropical Storm Chris still chugging along

70% Chance in Gulf now designated 'Invest 96L', but we'll still call her 'Chance'. Once named, she'll be called either Tropical Depression Debby or Tropical Storm Debby !

At this time we are giving this area a good probability of becoming a named storm within the next 24 hours. A low has been located near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with a central pressure of 1007 MB and surface pressure is falling across the broad area. The National Hurricane center is giving this area a 'HIGH' chance of further development, possibly becoming a Tropical Depression in the next day or so.

Uncertainty Remains ...

Models continue to disagree on the track of Chance. The more reliable tropical models indicate a potential landfall between Panama City and Tampa. Other models take Chance to Texas and North Mexico, while yet others stall her out in the central Gulf of Mexico. The SHIPS Model [Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme] late yesterday 6/21 showed a peak wind speed of 63 MPH, making this a strong Tropical Storm at Landfall.

I must remind you, This is not set in stone. Other factors including possible interaction with land in or around the Yucatan and a frontal passages moving through the area will also be factors in determining track and strength. ALL Areas along the Gulf Coast should remain alert at this time. Do you have a plan on what to do before, during, and after a tropical storm / hurricane ??

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What was Hurricane Chris earlier yesterday 6/21, maxed out with winds of 75 MPH and is now a Tropical Storm once again. Currently Chris has max winds of 65 MPH, is moving north at about 14 MPH, has a central pressure of 987 MB / 29.15 INCHES, and is about 540 Miles East/Southeast of of Cape Race Newfoundland. Chris surprised everyone including the NHC.

Tropical Disturbance Gulf of Mexico, Possible Tropical Storm - June 23-26

Global models continue to show steady development of 'the 30% Chance' over the next few days as it meanders in warm waters between Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula. Upper level winds are expected to diminish providing a more favorable environment for the Chance to develop. At this time the GFS and the ECMWF models are similar in taking the Chance into the Gulf of Mexico and developing a low pressure. They also show the Chance moving northwestward with possible interaction with the Yucatan peninsula while still an area of Low pressure. We think after the interaction with the Yucatan, Chance could possibly reorganize, turn to a North / Northeast trajectory towards Florida, crossing Central Florida and exiting into the Atlantic.

In fact, the GFS shows a broad area of Low pressure in the Yucatan peninsula area on Friday 6/22/12 and brings it to the Florida peninsula Gulf coast around Tampa and the Big Bend area on Tuesday 6/26/12. Possibly Tropical Storm Debby.

It then crosses Florida and exits the east coast into the Atlantic late Tuesday night early Wednesday morning where it looks to regain strength and possibly become a weak Hurricane.

Also of interest is the possible development of another Low in the Bay of Campeche around June 26. We'll see how that goes as we track the first storm expected to impact Florida on June 26.

At this time there remains considerable uncertainty as to what will occur. I will have a better handle on things once a Low forms. One thing is certain; Areas of Florida and Cuba will see some heavy rain with this disturbance as it evolves.

Here's the 5 day predicted rainfall amounts valid 8 PM Thursday June 21 thru 8 PM Tuesday June 26.