Record Breaking Heat in Georgia and Alabama June 29 thru July 1 2012

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
0432 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT COLUMBUS...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 DEGREES WAS SET AT COLUMBUS SO FAR TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 99 SET IN 2007.


RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
0432 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ATLANTA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 DEGREES WAS SET AT ATLANTA SO FAR TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 99 SET IN 1954.


RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
0432 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MACON...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 108 DEGREES WAS SET AT MACON SO FAR TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 103 SET IN 1954.


RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
0432 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ATHENS...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 108 DEGREES WAS SET AT ATHENS SO FAR TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 103 SET IN 1927.


===============


RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
0425 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT TUSCALOOSA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 104 DEGREES WAS SET AT TUSCALOOSA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 103 SET IN 1954.


RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
0425 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BIRMINGHAM...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 104 DEGREES WAS SET AT BIRMINGHAM TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 103 SET IN 1954.


RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
0425 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MONTGOMERY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 101 DEGREES WAS SET AT MONTGOMERY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 100 SET IN 2007.


RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
0425 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ANNISTON...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 104 DEGREES WAS SET AT ANNISTON TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 102 SET IN 1954.

==============

06-30-2012 Atlanta Hartsfield AP, GA High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 106 °F 105 °F (07-17-1980)

06-30-2012 Columbus Metro AP, GA High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 106 °F 105 °F (06-29-2012)

06-30-2012 Macon Middle Ga AP, GA High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 108 °F 108 °F (07-13-1980)

06-30-2012 Helen, GA High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 102 °F 100 °F (07-20-1986)

06-30-2012 Rome WSO AP, GA High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 107 °F 106 °F (07-17-1980)

06-30-2012 Dallas 7 NE, GA High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 104 °F 104 °F (08-23-2007)

06-30-2012 Sandersville, GA High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 107 °F 107 °F (07-22-1986)

------

06-29-2012 Columbus Metro AP, GA High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 105 °F 104 °F (08-10-2007)

06-29-2012 Athens Ben Epps AP, GA High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 109 °F 107 °F (08-21-1983)

06-29-2012 Dekalb Peachtree, GA High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 103 °F 102 °F (08-22-2007)


===========================


06-30-2012 Russellville #2, AL High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 106 °F 106 °F (08-16-2007)

06-30-2012 Muscle Shoals AP, AL High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 107 °F 107 °F (06-29-2012)

06-29-2012 Gadsden, AL High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 105 °F 105 °F (08-16-1954)

06-29-2012 Huntsville Intl AP, AL High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 106 °F 105 °F (08-16-2007)

06-29-2012 Muscle Shoals AP, AL High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 107 °F 107 °F (08-15-2007)

06-29-2012 Bankhead L&d, AL High Maximum Temp All-Time Record 107 °F 107 °F (07-08-1977)


More record breaking heat across the U.S. here

97L Tropical Wave / Disturbance Gulf of Mexico / Remnants of Post Tropical Storm Debby

Update: All ares of interest have dissipated. For an automatically updated Tropical Weather Outlook, see the Tropical Weather Page

Original Post below

I've been watching an area of disturbed weather currently designated 97L for the past few days way out in the Atlantic. While it's a bit early for action down that way from my experience, this hurricane season as a whole at this point has been early . I'll keep an eye on this area currently designated 97L in the coming days for further possible development.

As of 8:00 AM EDT June 30 2012:

Currently designated 97L, this area of activity has a 10 percent chance of becoming a Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours. Currently located about 600 miles East of the Windward Islands, Maximum sustained winds are 29 MPH extending out about 52 miles. Central pressure was 1013MB. See image below for current computer models tracks.

An area of disturbed weather in the Western Gulf of Mexico continues to produce clouds and some thunderstorms as it moves Northward around 5 to 10 miles per hour. This area has near 0 percent chance of becoming a Tropical storm in the next 48 hours.

The remnants of post tropical storm Debby continue to show shower activity. This area has a near 0 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours as conditions remain unfavorable. Located about 575 miles South of Halifax Nova Scotia, the remnants are moving East Northeastward at about 20 MPH.

Georgia Drought Update: Good news and bad news - June 29 2012

The good news; Some areas of Georgia and the southeast saw drought relief. The bad news; Some areas didn't !

Areas that saw drought relief are pretty much the same areas that saw drought relief earlier this month from Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical Storm Debby was responsible for bringing drought relief to these areas this time. Rain from Debby and Beryl did help the drought situation in areas of Southeast Georgia, North Florida, and other areas. It did little for North and Central Georgia overall.

Here's a graphic showing drought conditions in Georgia. On the left: Drought conditions on June 5 before Tropical Storm Debby. On the right: Current drought conditions as of June 26 2012 after Debby.

Here's a graphic showing the Drought conditions in the Southeast for the same time period. Notice Florida, where drought for the most part has been wiped out. On the left: Drought conditions on June 5 before TS Debby. On the right: Current drought conditions as of June 26 2012 after TS Debby.

Here's a panel showing 30 DAY Observed Precipitation TOP, Normal precipitation BOTTOM LEFT and Departure from Normal BOTTOM RIGHT for Georgia, Alabama, North Florida and South Carolina. The big winner in the last 30 days is Florida.

Here's the current U.S. drought severity index on the LEFT and how much precipitation would be required on the RIGHT to end drought conditions across the U.S.. [NOTE: The end of a drought is defined by a PHDI value of -0.5.]

Here's the current drought severity in the U.S.. ON the LEFT June 5 and on the RIGHT current as of June 26 2012.

Here's the 3 month Temperature and Precipitation outlook for the U.S.. It's not looking good as Temps will be above normal for much of the county drying things out even more and chances of rain for the most part are equal save some intervention by tropical systems in the south.

Here's the Drought Outlook for June 21 through September 30 2012. Again, not looking good !

Here's a panel from May 2012 showing Precipitation REQUIRED to end drought conditions in 3 months TOP LEFT. The PROBABILITY of Receiving the Required precipitation TOP RIGHT. Precipitation required to improve drought conditions BOTTOM LEFT and the PROBABILITY of Receiving it BOTTOM RIGHT to improve drought conditions.

All in all, drought conditions are likely to continue for the next 3 months and likely beyond that for areas currently experiencing drought in the U.S..

Tropical Depression #Debby Less Organized Heading into Atlantic | Full Track | June 27 2012

Debby is back on track moving east/northeast after a short jog to the southeast late last night. She is now heading E/NE at 10MPH and positioned at 29.6N / 81.0W or about 25 miles Southeast of St. Augustine Florida. Her winds are still 35MPH and her central pressure is 998MB or 29.47 inches.

Debby's track as of 2:00 Am EDT June 27 2012: Shows track from beginning North of the Yucatan peninsula as a low pressure system on June 22 2012 designated 'Invest 96L'. Becoming Tropical Storm Debby on June 23 2012. Then becoming a Tropical Depression shortly after landfall on the Florida west coast June 26 2012.

Debby is expected to continue on her current track to the east northeast and enter the Atlantic Ocean sometime today / this morning. Once in the Atlantic her forward speed will increase she may intensify in the coming days. It is uncertain at this time how strong Debby may become, but she does have potential energy to work with from the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. We will continue to monitor Debby over the coming days.

Most of the rains early this morning remain off the east coast of Florida, with a few bands to the south still making their way through Central and Southern Florida. In the central and south, some rain heavy at times may be expected and may cause issues from training over the same areas until Debby moves farther away.

Heavy rains over the past few days are expected to continue to cause flooding issues due to runoff into local creeks and rivers. If you live around any of these areas it is requested that you monitor conditions closely.

All Coastal Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been discontinued. There remains a few areas on the west coast of Florida at this time under coastal flood warnings. Areas in north Florida and Southeast Georgia remain under Flood warnings. Check with your local National Weather Service offices to see if you are under any of these Warnings here - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

Tropical Storm #Debby on the move again / Forecast Track - June 26 2012

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains in Effect from Mexico Beach southward to Englewood.

Debby continues moving eastward at this hour while maintaining her strength. Heavy Rains are expected to continue in Northern Florida and Southeast Georgia.

Currently Debby is centered about 70 Miles West of Cedar Key Florida [ Levy County ] and moving East around 3 MPH. Sustained winds this hour are still 40 MPH. Tropical Storm Force winds extend out about 240 Miles from her center located at Latitude 28.9 NORTH Longitude 84.2 WEST, and a central pressure of 993 MB or 29.32 Inches.

The Forecast Track for Debby continues to move her to the East and Northeast making Landfall in the Big Bend area around Cedar Key Florida. Time of landfall is still uncertain at this time. Debby will still be a Tropical Storm while making Landfall. After making landfall Debby is expected to loose some of her strength while over land, and become a Tropical Depression. Debby is then expected to continue to the Northeast reemerging in the Atlantic and may once again become a Tropical Storm. The re-intensification of Debby remains uncertain at this time due to her interaction with land. We'll keep a close eye on Debby!

Current Forecast Track as of 11 Am EDT

For more information on Debby and other Tropical weather, see the Tropical Weather Page


While winds with Debby have had minimal impacts, the big story is the rains associated with her. Numerous reports of Flooding and Flash Flooding have been reported in North Florida due to the rains and storm surge. The hardest hit area at this time is Wakulla County where the Sopchoppy River near Sopchoppy Florida is expected to crest at 41 feet; Flood stage is 28 feet. The National Weather Service in Tallahassee at this time reports the Sopchoppy River Gauge has Failed due to impacts from debris. Last report received was at 9:00 PM EDT Last night with a level of 31.41 Feet. Surrounding counties in the area also affected are Southeast Liberty county, North Franklin county, South Leon county, South Jefferson county, and Northwest Taylor county. See Tropical Storm #Debby Flooding / Road Closures For images.

Rainfall totals form 3 and 7 AM EDT this morning June 26 2012

This is from 8 Am This morning

At 4:00 AM EDT The National Weather Service in Tallahassee issued a Flood Warning for Urban areas and small Streams in the following Locations until 10:00 AM EDT: JEFFERSON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...SOUTH CENTRAL LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...MADISON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN FLORIDA...WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

At 5:40 AM EDT The National Weather Service in Jacksonville issued the following Statement: FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...GEORGIA...ST MARY`S RIVER AT MACCLENNY AFFECTING BAKER...NASSAU...CAMDEN ANDCHARLTON COUNTIES...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...SUWANNEE RIVER AT WHITE SPRINGS AFFECTING COLUMBIA AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST....MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

You can find information on Florida Road closures here - Florida's Statewide 511 Website

Tropical Storm #Debby Flooding / Road Closures

4:00 AM EDT - 3:00 AM CDT 6/26/2012

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM MEXICO BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

Debby is nearly stationary at this time, continuing to pour heavy amounts of rain in already flooded areas of North Florida. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION, as Debby will remain in the area for a few more days dropping more rain on already flooded areas. At this time the area hardest hit is Wakulla county, Southeast Liberty county, North Franklin county, South Leon county, South Jefferson county, and Northwest Taylor county.

Extreme flooding concerns at this hour along the Sopchoppy River near Sopchoppy Florida where it is expected to crest at 41 feet, Flood stage is 28 feet. At 9:00 PM EDT / 8:00 PM CDT June 25 2012, a level was observed of 31.41 Feet. Voluntary evacuations in Wakulla county for homes along the Sopchoppy River, upper St. Marks River, the Ochlockonee River, and low lying areas throughout the county are RECOMMENDED.

Current Road Closures in Florida as of 3 AM EDT / 2 AM CDT June 26 2012:

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-377 [ALL AREA] x[SR375] [SOPCHOPPY] - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER - CAUTION WATER COMING OVER ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: US-98 x[BOTTOMS RD] [PANACEA] - CAUTION WATER COMING OVER ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: CR-375 x[SYFRETTE CREEK RD] [SOPCHOPPY] - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER - CAUTION WATER COMING OVER ROADWAY - CAUTION ROADWAY IS CLOSED USE ALTERNATE ROUTE

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-30 x[RUNNING DEER LN] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: SOPCHOPPY HWY x[ALLEN-GREEN RD] [SOPCHOPPY] - ROADWAY CLOSED NO TRAFFIC PERMITTED - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: LOWER BRIDGE RD x[TIGER HAMMOCK RD] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-30 x[WALKER FARM RD] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: SHELL POINT RD (CR-367) x[SPRING CREEK HWY (CR-365)] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - ROADWAY CLOSED EXCEPT TO RESIDENCE ONLY - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: SURF RD [MASHES SAND] x[SR-30] [PANACEA] - ROADWAY CLOSED EXCEPT TO RESIDENCE ONLY - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-30 x[WILDWOOD DR] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - EASTBOUND LANE UNDER WATER - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: PORT LEON DR x[NEWPORT RD] [ST MARKS] - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

+++++

FRANKLIN COUNTY: ISLAND DR [ST GEORGE ISLAND BRIDGE] x[US98] [EASTPOINT] - BRIDGE CLOSED CURFEW ENFORCED AT 8:00 PM NO ENTRY ONTO THE ISLAND BY ANYONE

FRANKLIN COUNTY: ALLIGATOR DR x[SR-30] [ALLIGATOR POINT] - ROADWAY CLOSED CURFEW ENFORCED AT 8:00 PM NO ENTRY TO ALLIGATOR POINT BY ANYONE

+++++

JEFFERSON COUNTY: SR-59 x[WHITEHOUSE RD] [LLOYD] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

JEFFERSON COUNTY: SPRING HOLLOW DR x[COOPERS POND] [MONTICELLO] - ROAD IS CLOSED USE ALTERNATE ROUTE - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

JEFFERSON COUNTY: US-27 (SR-20) x[US-19 (SR-57)] [CAPPS] - 3 TO 4 FOOT DEEP WATER ACROSS ROADWAY

JEFFERSON COUNTY: SR-30 x[HELLS HALF ACRE] [LAMONT] - TREE IN ROADWAY, COMPLETE ROAD BLOCK

Tropical Storm #Debby Still Stationary - June 25 2012

The timing and forecast track for Debby is still uncertain. Both GFS and ECMWF Models are coming into better agreement at this time in keeping Debby Stationary, or nearly so for the next day or so. [ See also: Sunday, June 24, 2012 - Tropical Storm #Debby - Track has changed considerably ]

At this time Debby remains Stalled / Stationary this morning and has been for some time now. Currently winds associated with Debby are 50mph sustained, down from our earlier report of 60mph. Debby is currently located about 90 miles south/southwest of Apalachicola Florida [ 28.6N 85.8W ], and minimum central pressure is 993mb.

This morning appears to be a lull with Debby. Later today Debby may undergo some regeneration associated with convection and may re-intensify. During this time winds with Debby will once again 'increase'. Due to the environment at hand, we can expect more severe weather in the form of thunderstorms and Tornadoes. 20 Tornadoes were reported yesterday, and 5 Saturday on the Florida Peninsula. Also compounding this will be 'flash flooding' and 'flooding' from heavy rains which will fall over the same areas associated with rainbands, and coastal flooding due to 'storm surge'.

At this time there is a 'Tropical Storm Warning' from the Mississippi / Alabama state line east through the Florida Big Bend and South to around Boca Grande and Charlotte Harbor.
A 'Tornado Watch' for Northern and Central Florida and adjacent Coastal Waters until 2:00 Pm EDT. This watch will likely be extend sometime later today.
A 'Flood Watch' for portions of Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia through Tuesday Morning and 'Flood Warnings' for various areas in Florida and Georgia.

You can find more information on Tropical Storm Debby on the Tropical Weather Page where Information and Graphics update automatically when changes are issued.

You can also find me on Twitter @cataulagawx .. and .. Facebook Cataula GA Weather. I share weather related information there as well.

Tropical Storm #Debby - Track has changed considerably - June 24 2012

It doesn't look as if Debby will be heading west as many thought earlier. Debby is now expected to impact areas of the Florida Panhandle to the Big Bend area. While Debby's track STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN, focus has now shifted to the coastal areas of the southeast. In my post on Thursday, June 21, 2012 Tropical Disturbance Gulf of Mexico, Possible Tropical Storm - June 23-26, I mentioned that Debby would likely impact areas of Florida. I preferred this area over a Texas landfall.

Areas along the Panhandle of Florida, the Big Bend area and south along the west Coast should remain EXTRA cautious due to the proximity of Debby and her uncertain forecast. The Forecast track of Debby remains Highly uncertain at this time and all residents along the coastal area are urged to remain aware of the situation.

Tropical Storm Warnings Continue for Areas from the Mississippi / Alabama State line EASTWARD to the Suwanne River in Florida.

Tropical Storm WATCHES have been extended SOUTHWARD along the WEST COAST of FLORIDA to ENGLEWOOD.

Tropical Storm Warnings for Louisiana have been discontinued at this time.
Tropical Storm Warnings from the Mouth of the Pearl River, West to Morgan City have been discontinued.


At this time Debby continues to move ever so slowly to the Northeast at 3 MPH. Sustained winds are Still around 60 MPH with higher gusts in and around the area. Tropical Storm Force winds Extend outwards up to 200 Miles from Debby, whose center is now located at 28.4N 85.8W, or about 205 Miles East Southeast of the Mississippi River, and /or 100 Miles South Southwest of the Apalachicola River.

Debby is not expected to move much in the next day or so. Debby will continue to bring heavy and copious amounts of rain to Florida, South Georgia and areas of South Alabama.
Many Gulf coastal areas of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana are under Flash Flood Watches and Flood Watches. Storm Surge may also become a hazard during this time.

Here is the latest possible track Debby will take as of 5 PM EDT June 24 2012.

You can find more information on Tropical Storm Debby on the Tropical Weather Page where Information and Graphics update automatically when changes are issued.

You can also find me on Twitter @cataulagawx .. and .. Facebook Cataula GA Weather. I share weather related information there as well.

I will be posting information concerning Tropical Storm Debby on Twitter and Facebook through the overnight Sunday and morning hours Monday.

Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico - June 23 2012

Hurricane Hunter aircraft sampled winds of 60.9 MPH in the east quadrant around Tropical Storm Debby.

Here's the latest computer model plots showing where Tropical Storm Debby may go. It is still early so this will change in the coming days.

I'll have the Tropical Weather Page updated later with current information from various sources. So be sure and check back often.

Here's the 5 PM EDT / 4 PM CDT release from the National Hurricane Center

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

Invest 96L in Gulf of Mexico more organized / Tropical Storm Chris still chugging along

70% Chance in Gulf now designated 'Invest 96L', but we'll still call her 'Chance'. Once named, she'll be called either Tropical Depression Debby or Tropical Storm Debby !

At this time we are giving this area a good probability of becoming a named storm within the next 24 hours. A low has been located near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with a central pressure of 1007 MB and surface pressure is falling across the broad area. The National Hurricane center is giving this area a 'HIGH' chance of further development, possibly becoming a Tropical Depression in the next day or so.

Uncertainty Remains ...

Models continue to disagree on the track of Chance. The more reliable tropical models indicate a potential landfall between Panama City and Tampa. Other models take Chance to Texas and North Mexico, while yet others stall her out in the central Gulf of Mexico. The SHIPS Model [Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme] late yesterday 6/21 showed a peak wind speed of 63 MPH, making this a strong Tropical Storm at Landfall.

I must remind you, This is not set in stone. Other factors including possible interaction with land in or around the Yucatan and a frontal passages moving through the area will also be factors in determining track and strength. ALL Areas along the Gulf Coast should remain alert at this time. Do you have a plan on what to do before, during, and after a tropical storm / hurricane ??

++++++

What was Hurricane Chris earlier yesterday 6/21, maxed out with winds of 75 MPH and is now a Tropical Storm once again. Currently Chris has max winds of 65 MPH, is moving north at about 14 MPH, has a central pressure of 987 MB / 29.15 INCHES, and is about 540 Miles East/Southeast of of Cape Race Newfoundland. Chris surprised everyone including the NHC.

Tropical Disturbance Gulf of Mexico, Possible Tropical Storm - June 23-26

Global models continue to show steady development of 'the 30% Chance' over the next few days as it meanders in warm waters between Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula. Upper level winds are expected to diminish providing a more favorable environment for the Chance to develop. At this time the GFS and the ECMWF models are similar in taking the Chance into the Gulf of Mexico and developing a low pressure. They also show the Chance moving northwestward with possible interaction with the Yucatan peninsula while still an area of Low pressure. We think after the interaction with the Yucatan, Chance could possibly reorganize, turn to a North / Northeast trajectory towards Florida, crossing Central Florida and exiting into the Atlantic.

In fact, the GFS shows a broad area of Low pressure in the Yucatan peninsula area on Friday 6/22/12 and brings it to the Florida peninsula Gulf coast around Tampa and the Big Bend area on Tuesday 6/26/12. Possibly Tropical Storm Debby.

It then crosses Florida and exits the east coast into the Atlantic late Tuesday night early Wednesday morning where it looks to regain strength and possibly become a weak Hurricane.

Also of interest is the possible development of another Low in the Bay of Campeche around June 26. We'll see how that goes as we track the first storm expected to impact Florida on June 26.

At this time there remains considerable uncertainty as to what will occur. I will have a better handle on things once a Low forms. One thing is certain; Areas of Florida and Cuba will see some heavy rain with this disturbance as it evolves.

Here's the 5 day predicted rainfall amounts valid 8 PM Thursday June 21 thru 8 PM Tuesday June 26.

Tropical Storm Chris - Short lived Post Tropical by Thursday

Tropical Storm Chris is the 3^rd tropical storm of 2012, and the 1^st since the 2012 Hurricane season began on June 1^st.

Tropical Storm Chris is not expected to strengthen much before becoming a post tropical cyclone sometime late Wednesday 6/20 or early Thursday 6/21 as he moves over cooler waters.

As of 11 PM Tuesday 6/19/2012, Tropical storm Chris was accelerating east / southeastward in the open Atlantic away form the east coast. Chris is not expected to be of any concern for the U.S. mainland.

Here's the latest information on Tropical Storm Chris...

LOCATION...38.8N 56.0W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

More information is available on the Tropical Weather Page

Georgia Drought Update - June 8 2012

Before I get to the current drought situation in Georgia and the southeast, I would first like to mention the possibility of some good rain heading in this coming week. Without going into great detail of the approaching system, areas in the Southeast may see some high accumulation rates beginning Today [6/8/2012] through Thursday of next week. Some of the higher rain totals predicted will occur along the Gulf coast, seeing possibly as much as 10 inches of rain.

Here's the 5 day outlook from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center [HPC] valid from 8 Pm Thursday thru 5 PM Tuesday evening June 15 2012. There is the potential some areas will have flooding issues through next week.

The NWS Peachtree City, GA mentions precipitation approaching 4 inches in areas of West Central Georgia. The NWS Huntsville, AL is in agreement mentioning 3 to 4 inches possible for northern Alabama areas.


Drought Impacts from Tropical Storm Beryl

In my last Drought update on May 25, 2012, I mentioned the possibility of a Tropical System of some type impacting the areas of Georgia and Florida. Other areas in the Southeast also saw welcomed rains from that system known as Tropical Storm Beryl.

from the Drought Monitor Archives-Contiguous U.S. MAy 29 2012 - Tropical Storm Beryl formed on May 25 about 300 miles east of Charleston, South Carolina, and moved southwestward. Beryl made landfall just after midnight on Memorial Day, May 28, near Jacksonville Beach, Florida, then passed near Valdosta, Georgia, before turning toward the north and northeast. Before accelerating away from the coastal Carolinas on May 30, Beryl provided much-needed rain to drought-affected areas from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain.

Here's a Radar estimated rainfall amount from Moody Air Force Base, GA. Radar Precip Est From 1105 AM EDT Sun May 27 2012 to 0242 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012

While the rain from Beryl did help the drought situation in areas of Southeast Georgia, North Florida, and other areas in South and North Carolina, it did little for North Central, Central and Southwest Georgia. Here's a graphic showing drought conditions in Georgia. On the left: Drought conditions on May 22 before Beryl. On the right: Current drought conditions as of June 5 2012 after Beryl.

Here's a graphic showing the Drought conditions in the Southeast for the same time period. Notice North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina. On the left: Drought conditions on May 22 before Beryl. On the right: Current drought conditions as of June 5 2012 after Beryl.

Here's a graphic showing Rain amounts for the last 14 days ending June 7. Notice the area along the east coast down through Florida, where impacts from Tropical Storms Beryl were seen the most.

Here's what drought conditions look like for the remainder of the U.S. at this time.

And finally, here's how much precipitation would be required to end drought conditions across the U.S. in 3 months. [NOTE: The end of a drought is defined by a PHDI value of -0.5.]

Storms on track,Mississippi,Alabama and Georgia June 4 2012

7:04 AM 6/4/2012


As mentioned yesterday Sunday, June 3, 2012, storms will be impacting the southeast today. Some areas saw severe storms yesterday, including Tornadoes.

At this time there is a Mesoscale Convective System ongoing in North Mississippi and Alabama. This MCS will continue moving south / southeast through the morning hours. This storm complex is generating severe storms producing damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH, hail to 1.5 inches, dangerous frequent lightning and heavy rain. The individual cells embedded within this complex are moving southeast at a rapid pace of between 45 and 70 MPH. There is also another one behind this one that may impact the same areas during the overnight and into Tuesday June 5.

The tornado threat remains low at this time, but 1 or 2 can not be entirely ruled out due to the nature of the storm system. The main threat will remain strong damaging winds and hail. Instability increases this afternoon where once aging severe weather is expected.

At this time the Storms Prediction Center has large areas in Alabama and Georgia highlighted in a 'slight risk' area. Meaning a better chance of seeing thunderstorms than not.

The SPC also has the same areas from the graphic above highlighted for strong winds and hail.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

There are no severe thunderstorm watches or Tornado watches in effect at this time. This is likely to change at some point this morning due to the evolving cluster of storms. There is a Mesoscale Discussion, which is basically outlining the possibility of some type of Weather Watch being issued. At 6:33 PM EDT, this probability is at 60%. The highlighted area in the graphic is the general area the watch will be issued for.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

See the lead up post on this event, posted on Sunday, June 3, 2012 at 10:49 AM : Severe Storms possible in Georgia and Alabama June 4/5 2012

Severe Storms possible in Georgia and Alabama June 4/5 2012

See updated post on this event here - 7:04 AM 6/4/2012 Storms on track,Mississippi,Alabama and Georgia June 4 2012

Threats: The main threat from this round of storms will be 'damaging winds', with some areas also having the potential for seeing some hail. The tornado threat is low at this time.

What: Mesoscale Convective System - The main area of storms that will be pushing through the area will be fairly organized in nature, with stronger storms embedded with the main complex. Storms may develop out ahead of the main system. This will be difficult to determine until the main complex has formed and begins to move through the area.

When: Timing is another factor difficult to determine with a system such as this. At this time, For areas in north Alabama and Georgia, it looks like it will start to become active in the early morning hours on Monday, as early as 5 AM.
Depending on forward motion/speed, Central Alabama and Georgia may begin to see activity around 8 AM peaking in the afternoon and early evening hours. During daytime heating the storms may intensify.
The storms will continue pushing south/southeast through the day and into the overnight hours Monday reaching the southern areas sometime early Tuesday morning.

As with all systems of this nature, not everyone will experience severe weather.

At this time the storm prediction center has the Northern and Central areas of Alabama and Georgia mentioned above highlighted in a 'Slight Risk' for Monday and shifts the 'Slight risk' area to the south for Tuesday. I will continue to monitor the situation for possible upgrade to a 'moderate risk' for these areas depending on storm evolution.

Here's a composite showing the Monday and Tuesday 'slight risk' areas.

As usual when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Storm reports on May 31 2012 in Alabama and Georgia

But first ...

While the weather did not become as active as I had anticipated, there were still storm damage reports. As I mentioned in my previous post, I did expect some storms to fire up in Alabama, and they did. As they moved east towards the local area in Georgia, the atmosphere became more stable, limiting their strength. I also mentioned this may be a possibility in my previous post. However, once the shortwave that was responsible for thee storms moved through the area, they regenerated somewhat and did bring more storms to Georgia.

Today I still expect some storms, possibly severe, to pop up in Georgia as the cold front pushes through. I do believe the eastern areas of the state will see the best chance of seeing severe storms, but I wouldn't completely rule one out state wide. The weather is like a women, you never know what shes capable of. [No offense to the ladies out there :)]

While there were no reported Tornadoes in Alabama or Georgia, or tornado warnings issued, there were a couple tornado warnings to our west in Mississippi. SO far no confirmation on if these tornado warned storms produced tornadoes or not.

Here's a graphic showing the storms reports on May 31 2012. The report generated was from 12:00 AM Thursday May 31 thru Friday morning June 1 2012 12:30 AM.

Here's the text of the storm reports in Alabama and Georgia.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
909 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

0413 PM  TSTM WND GST  2 NW MONTGOMERY  32.38N 86.31W
05/31/2012  M58 MPH  MONTGOMERY AL  BROADCAST MEDIA
ON RSA CAMERA IN DOWNTOWN MONTGOMERY.

0418 PM  TSTM WND DMG  MONTGOMERY  32.35N 86.28W
05/31/2012 MONTGOMERY AL   BROADCAST MEDIA
TREES REPORTED DOWN IN MULTIPLE NEIGHBORHOODS ACROSS MONTGOMERY.

0630 PM  TSTM WND DMG  6 SSE YORK  32.42N 88.27W
05/31/2012  SUMTER AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

+++++

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1125 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

0508 PM  TSTM WND DMG  1 SE LOUISVILLE  32.99N 82.40W
05/31/2012  JEFFERSON GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES ALONG MOORE STREET.

0510 PM  TSTM WND DMG  LOUISVILLE  33.00N 82.41W
05/31/2012 JEFFERSON GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN BLOCKING U.S. HWY 1.

0517 PM   HAIL  ELLIJAY  34.69N 84.48W
05/31/2012  E0.75 INCH  GILMER GA   EMERGENCY MNGR
EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL ON ZEBLIN ROAD.

0750 PM  TSTM WND DMG  THOMASTON  32.89N 84.33W
05/31/2012  UPSON GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTS 5 TREES DOWN IN THE THOMASTON AREA.

0800 PM  TSTM WND DMG  MOLENA  33.01N 84.50W
05/31/2012  PIKE GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTS 2 TREES DOWN IN THE MOLENA AREA.

0815 PM  TSTM WND DMG  6 W ZEBULON  33.09N 84.44W
05/31/2012  PIKE GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTS 1 TREE DOWN IN CONCORD.

0828 PM  TSTM WND DMG  EATONTON  33.33N 83.39W
05/31/2012  PUTNAM GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED SEVERAL TREES AND A FEW POWER LINES DOWN IN 
THE CITY OF EATONTON.

0903 PM  TSTM WND DMG  3 W SHOULDERBONE  33.34N 83.13W
05/31/2012  HANCOCK GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN NEAR THE PUTNAM-HANCOCK COUNTY LINE.

0918 PM  TSTM WND DMG  ETHRIDGE   33.16N 83.44W
05/31/2012  JONES GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN IN THE ETHRIDGE AREA.

0923 PM  TSTM WND DMG  WHITE PLAINS  33.47N 83.04W
05/31/2012  GREENE  GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN IN THE WHITE PLAINS AREA.

Strong to Severe Storms Georgia / Alabama - 5/31-6/1 2012

Friday looks to be an active day for weather. We might even see some strong storms Thursday night in Alabama before the storms arrive in Georgia sometime Friday.

At this time the greatest threats with the strong to severe storms will be Hail from pea size up to quarter size, Strong Damaging winds to 50+ MPH, Heavy rains and frequent lightning. I will also add that there is a small chance of a Tornado due to variables with the approaching system and individual storm cells should they develop.

While the threat of a tornado is small, it can not be entirely ruled out. The reason for this is due to what may happen with the stronger storms [ See Link - Confirmed Tornado Lee County Alabama on May 13 2012 ]. While the best energy for Tornadoes will be to our north in Georgia and farther north, strong storms which will be coming through will be capable of spinning up quick small short lived tornadoes. I wont rule out a small tornado Thursday or Friday at some point and time in Alabama or Georgia.

At this time, it looks like Thunderstorms will increase Thursday Night, and there is the possibility some of them could be severe. Early Friday morning in the early AM hours there may still be some active storms around. Not as active as with day time heating, but still some could be strong.

On Friday as the day heats up, storms should get a little stronger by mid afternoon and continue into the night. The exact timing is not set in stone. Other factors will also be in play that may help storms begin earlier or later, be weaker or stronger, such as cloud cover and or atmosphere stabilization / destabilization from the earlier storms to our west.

Just a reminder ... Not everyone will see a severe storm. Not everyone will experience hail and high winds. Not everyone will see a Tornado. No one knows to pin point accuracy when and where any of this may happen during the event.

I'll have another update later.