Georgia Drought Update - Huge Improvement - February 28 2013 #gawx

Heavy rains during February some which were record breaking, have wiped out 'extreme drought conditions' in Georgia and the Southeast. However, Pockets of 'Severe drought' remain in areas of Central and East Georgia extending into Northeast Florida. So even though the southeast had some good rain, drought still persists, and it won't take long if dry conditions move in for drought conditions to increase once again throughout the area.

Some areas of Georgia saw record breaking rainfall amounts. One such area was Columbus Georgia where they saw 13.51 inches of precipitation in February, breaking the record of 9.41 inches for the same period. The 'all time monthly precipitation record' of 13.62 inches in December of 2009 still stands.

Here at my location, my February rainfall total is 13.29 inches. Here are some other Precipitation Totals for February across Georgia

Albany   -   8.77 inches
Athens   -   7.66 inches
Atlanta  -   9.02 inches
Augusta  -   9.40 inches
Columbus -  13.51 inches
Macon    -  13.75 inches
Savannah -   9.75 inches
Valdosta -   5.39 inches

Georgia / Southeast drought January 1 thru February 26 2013




February Rainfall thru Feb. 26 2013

Heavy Rain / Flooding Issues for Georgia and Alabama #gawx #alwx

Rain moves back in Thursday Night / Friday Morning. There is the possibility by Late Friday evening .. thundershowers could be in the area but at this time it looks like mainly a rain event. On Monday there is an outside possibility conditions could come together for some stronger thunderstorms in the area. This is something that will need to be watched.

The bigger threat at this time will be heavy rain expected Friday through Tuesday, with flooding issues.

The first round expected on Friday through Saturday will likely bring rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches in North Georgia and 3 to 4 inches in central Georgia and Alabama, with higher amounts possible. Sunday looks like we'll have a short break with the next round of rain coming in on Monday through Tuesday, where rainfall amounts of an additional 2 inches could be in store. Total rainfall amounts for the entire period range from 1 to 3 inches over North Georgia / Alabama and 4 to 6 inches over Central and Southern Georgia / Alabama .




Flooding issues .... With heavy rains in Georgia and Alabama the past 2 weeks between 2 and 8 inches, the ground remains moist to wet in areas. This will not allow rainfall in the coming days to be absorbed quickly. This will cause extra runoff into low lying areas, creeks and rivers and cause them to rise at a quicker rate than normal. Flash Flooding will be likely in many areas including Roads.




Rivers and creeks are currently running higher than normal due to previous rainfall and widespread minor flooding is likely, with isolated significant flooding possible. This is something that needs to be monitored in the coming days.

Severe weather still on track for Georgia and Alabama Wednesday JAN 30 #gawx #alwx

This was written for my local area and posted on my Facebook page Cataula Georgia Weather. The local area is Columbus and Fort Benning Georgia and Phenix City Alabama. You can use this information for areas anywhere in East Alabama and West Georgia as the system coming through will cover a large area. On with the show....

The exact time is still in question depending on which model you go by and I will continue to look at them for agreement. Still looking like instabilities will increase sometime after 8:00 AM EST Wednesday morning. Regardless of timing, before the main area comes through we may see some thunderstorms in the area some which could be severe with damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

The winds will be gusty during this time 20 to 25 mph and will increase as the expected line of stronger storms gets closer and moves through the area to about 40 mph. Gusty winds like this can cause damage without being associated with severe storms. Stronger winds are likely in any severe storm. I'll also keep a watch for any discrete / individual storm cells developing out in front of the main line. These may become strong enough to bring severe weather to the area before the main line. These type of individual storm cells may also be capable of spawning tornadoes. The greatest threat at this time remains unchanged from my previous posts .. Strong to severe 'damaging winds' are likely and the possibility of a tornado or two. As always, 'not everyone will see severe storms and or tornadoes'.

I'll be looking at this closely over the coming hours for any changes that may increase the severity of the storms. Right now I do have one concern. As the trough approaches that will be bring the storms to the area, it looks to go from a positive tilt to a neutral tilt. This will increase the wind speeds / shear in both the upper and lower levels. At this time the winds are more than adequate for a damaging wind event and a couple tornadoes. Any increase would make this a larger threat. If the trough should go negatively tilted, the wind and shear would again increase even more. This is something that will need to be monitored and I will be doing just that. I'll have another update Wednesday Morning or sooner is needed. ~ ED

As always, find me on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather and Twitter before and when the storms strike. I'm there all the time and don't always have time to update the blog here ;) Follow @Cataulagawx

Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast - December 25 2012

Regardless of strength and track of the developing low, at a minimum this will be a 'damaging wind event'. On the extreme side it looks like there will be more than a couple tornadoes to deal with mainly in Central and Southern areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and possibly extreme Northern Florida.

If you've followed me long enough you know I won't / don't sugar coat what I see. I want you to enjoy your Christmas but I want you to be aware of the storms that will develop during the day Tuesday in Mississippi and Alabama continuing east through the afternoon into the early morning hours on Wednesday in Georgia. I will remind you that not everyone will experience severe weather and/or tornadoes.

Without getting into technical details [ weather speak ] here's the latest outlook from various National Weather Service office's around the southeast. Click image to enlarge.

Here's the outlook form the Storm Prediction Center on 12/23/12 AM. This outlook will be updated on Monday and Tuesday Morning and throughout the day Tuesday December 25 2012.

I'll be keeping an eye on this for further developments.


Technical details [ weather speak ]- 12z NAM and 12z GFS Severe parameters look strong for Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Northern Florida and a tad weaker [Lifted index and Cape] in East Georgia, still looks more than adequate for severe storms at this time.

Looking at latest data from the 12z NAM and 12z GFS, it appears the system has slowed somewhat. Nonetheless Wind Shear is still quite strong with a Jet Streak of 80+ knots on the 12z NAM and 90 knots on the 12z GFS in the areas mentioned above.

The lifted index on both models is -1 to -3 and approaching -5 on the NAM Late Wednesday night. Cape on the NAM is in the 1500 to 1750 Jkg Tuesday evening and around 750 on the GFS during the same time frame. I suspect a feedback issue here.

I expect backing winds will increase the threat of Tornadoes as time goes on. Also depending on cloud cover and rain or lack thereof ahead of the system the overall strength will increase due to heating allowed. Dewpoints will be in the high 50's to mid 60's and approaching the 70's along the gulf coast adding instability and will be transported north.

Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx


If you're local to the Columbus GA, Ft Benning GA, Phenix City Al area, you can also follow my posts on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Posted 1:20 PM EST 12/23/2012

Monday 12/17/12 Update - Southeast Severe Weather

The possibility of severe storms still exist today for areas in the southeast. Currently [ 5:20 AM EST 12/17/2012 ] seeing some moderate to strong thunderstorms in Southeast Mississippi / Southwest Alabama ahead of the cold front generally heading East-Northeast while the Cold front pushes east.

Radar at 5:20 AM EST

The only thing at this time I see limiting stronger storms developing, some possibly severe, is instability and moisture available ahead of the front. This lack of instability will be on the increase. By early afternoon / mid day Georgia should see storms some of which 'will be severe' begin to fire off. As always, 'Not everyone will see severe weather. I don't think there is enough time this morning for severe storms to break out in south-central Alabama, but may see some later in East Alabama / West Georgia. At the least should see isolated thunderstorms in these areas as morning pushes on. All of this will eventually make it's way to South Carolina later today.

As mentioned the past few days the greatest threat will be 'Damaging winds' associated with the stronger storms. We'll have to keep an eye on things this afternoon onward for the potential for an isolated tornado as well as hail.

Here's the outlook for today issued by the SPC 'valid at 12z - 7 AM EST' this morning. [click image to embiggen]

I likely wont be posting further updates on this here. Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Southeast Severe Weather December 16 2012 - Outlook for severe 12-19 / 12-20-12

Rain / Storms still on track. As mentioned yesterday - "On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday." Main threat still continues to be Damaging winds with stronger storms should they develop. However, due to the setup a LOW threat of a tornado is still present. Not everyone will see severe weather or a tornado. [ Note: Another round of storms expected around Wednesday / Thursday - See below graphic ]

Here's what the SPC has outlined for today into Monday Morning at this time...

And Monday morning thru Tuesday Morning at this time...

Here's the areas being watched at this time [Sunday afternoon] for possible severe weather on Wednesday Day 4 and Thursday Day 5. At this time the setup is looking interesting and if models remain consistent severe storms should develop in or around these areas.

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Possibility of Southeast Severe Weather Saturday thru Monday - December 15 2012

It seems our Second Severe Season has arrived albeit a bit late. Normally the fall severe weather begins in Mid to late November in the southeast. November this year was quite with the exception of a potential severe weather event in the southeast that never materialized during the Nov. 11^th thru 13^th time frame. If you were around this past week you may recall the Storms and Tornadoes in the Southeast on December 10 2012. on with the show ...

This coming bout of potential Severe weather will begin Late Saturday in the ARK-LA-MISS area shifting east with time into Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida. There remains uncertainty with the system as to timing and how strong storms may become due to how strong the upper level low pressure expected to develop in the northern tiers of this region becomes. The stronger the ULL, the more moisture it will pull north from the Gulf of Mexico into an already somewhat unstable air mass closer to the coast and extending northward. Regardless, am expecting some strong storms with isolated severe at this time throughout the region beginning today thru Monday again spreading west to east. Right now [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] confidence is somewhat LOW to the severe side based on how much cloud cover and rain occurs ahead of the frontal system in the warm sector.

Threats with this system will be in the form of Isolated strong to severe storms with the potential for a few Tornadoes with stronger storms possible. While the threat of tornadoes looks low at this time, a couple can't be entirely ruled out due to increasing shear layer to layer which may became surface based over time supporting Bowing Line areas capable of Damaging Straight Line winds and Isolated Supercells which may spawn a Tornado. There is also a threat of Flash Flooding in areas with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. As always .. not everyone will experience severe storms.

Today through Tomorrow morning the main threat will be the possibility of Damaging winds associated with strong thunderstorms that may develop generally in the afternoon and evening hours continuing through the overnight. ... On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday. On Sunday the Storm Prediction Center at this time [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] has an area highlighted for an elevated risk for strong to severe storms. We'll see how this area looks later today for possible increase in severity or even a decrease. For now here is what they have for Sunday Morning through Monday Morning. [click image to embiggen]

Here's the anticipated Rain Amounts Today through Tuesday Morning

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Hurricane #Sandy a Strong Category 2 - 110 mph winds - #Cuba Radar

Sandy may reach Category 3 before landfall in Southeast Cuba.

Sandy has rapidly intensified over the last twelve hours, including a large drop in pressure. This classifies her as a "bomb" in the meteorological sense.

She is a very large storm, covering almost a million square miles. Because of her girth, we don't expect the Islands to weaken her much, and she will impact South Florida over the next 24 hours.

Current:
Winds: 110 mph
Pressure 957 mb
Location: 19.6N 76.1W (30 miles SW of Santiago, Cuba)
Moving NNE at 13 mph

Hurricane Sandy making landfall in Cuba

Stay updated on Sandy .. You can find myself and others on Facebook at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone and Foot's Forecast | South Florida & The Keys.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Tropical Storm #Sandy soon to be a Hurricane & #Tony

Tropical Storm Sandy is anticipated to become a hurricane by the time she reaches Jamaica and Cuba today.

Sandy has strengthened overnight as she heads northward toward Jamaica. Currently Sandy has winds of 70 mph, is moving North at 14 mph and is 120 miles South of Kingston Jamaica and 295 miles South-southwest of Guantanamo Cuba at 16.3North 77.0West with a central pressure of 986 mb or 29.12 inches. The northward motion is expected to continue over the coming days with an increase in forward speed and strength as well. The center is anticipated to move across Jamaica late this afternoon and evening and be near or over eastern Cuba late tonight and Thursday morning and approaching the Central Bahamas sometime Thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center of Sandy at this time and tropical storm force winds are expected to be felt in Jamaica this morning with hurricane conditions this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are also possible in eastern Cuba this evening as well. Check back for updates on the forecast track of Sandy. Tormenta Tropical SANDY Aviso Publico - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/SJUTCPAT3+shtml/240721.shtml

Watches and Warnings with Sandy..

* 'Hurricane Warning' in effect for Jamaica and Cuban Provinces including Camaguey, LAs Tunas, Granma, Santiago De Cuba, Holguin and Guantanamo.

* 'Tropical Storm Warning' in effect for Hati, the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, The Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador.

* 'Tropical Storm Watch' in effect for the Southeastern and Northwestern Bahamas, the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet South and to Ocean Reef, and the Florida Upper Keys from Ocean Reef Southward to Craig Key including Florida Bay.

- Interest in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Sandy in the coming days.

Tony is the 19th named storm of the 2012 hurricane season. Tropical Storm Tony currently has winds of 45 mph, is moving to the east-northeast at 16 mph and is 1415 miles west-southwest of the Azores at 27.4North 47.9West with a central pressure of 1003 mb or 29.62 inches. Tony is not a threat at this time to 'any' landmass and is expected to continue toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed during the next 48 hours.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama, Florida Panhandle on Monday 10/01/2012

Already today [ Sunday 9/30/12 ] there have been 'isolated tornadoes' in Mississippi with damage reported and the threat may continue to increase through this evening for areas in Southeast Louisiana, Southern and Central Mississippi and West Central / Southwest Alabama. Likely the threat of strong storms will continue through the overnight into Monday morning as well.

Looks like at this time the severe threat on Monday will be greatest in the Afternoon through late evening into the early overnight if anything comes from it. Possibility of strong storms Monday into Tuesday as well. At the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger thunderstorms. This is not a widespread threat. Isolated severe only. Not everyone will experience serve weather.

Wind shear will be adequate to support rotation with some of the stronger storms as they move from West to East through the area Monday through Monday night and possibly Tuesday morning. While the threat for Tornadoes is low, the threat is there. Heavy rain could also be a problem causing Flash Flooding for some due to abundant moisture being pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico over the same areas.


Here's the current Storm outlook issued 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012. This will likely shift north in updates issued later as the Low and adjacent fronts continue pushing East and North.

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Statement from Storm Prediction Center 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ERN AL AND WRN GA MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45 KT. IN ADDITION...LCL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 500 METERS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE AL AND NW GA INTO SE TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE 9:45 AM 9/17/2012 - Georgia, Alabama, Florida Panhandle, Mississippi

The SPC has shifted the area of potentially Severe Storms and Isolated Tornadoes for Today through late this Monday evening through the overnight into Tuesday morning from previously [see below - Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama and Florida Panhandle - Monday 9/17/2012]. It now includes West Central Georgia through East Central and South Alabama, the Western Florida Panhandle and Southeast Mississippi.

The threats remain unchanged : Isolated Tornadoes, Strong to Severe Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and Heavy rain at times.

Not everyone will see severe weather.

Latest graphics issued 9 AM EDT

Click Image to Enlarge

Radar
Southeast



Southern Mississippi Valley



As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama and Florida Panhandle - Monday 9/17/2012

Tornado Threat Today highest in Central Georgia, Southeast Alabama, North Florida Panhandle 5% 'risk' and surrounding areas at 2%. Risk of localized flooding as well due to Expected heavy rains over same areas.

Looks like at this time severe threat will happen Late Monday into Tuesday if anything comes from it. Possibility of strong storms toady into Tuesday, at the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger thunderstorms. This is not a widespread threat. Isolated severe only. Not everyone will experience serve weather.

As I alluded to on Sunday in this tweet, cross posted on Facebook ...

Plenty of rain still in forecast and may get bumpy Monday for some. Know more later. #gawx

— Ed Quinn (@CataulaGaWX) September 16, 2012

A little bumpy ... I saw from modeling early Sunday cape would be marginal for thunderstorms. I also saw where wind shear would be adequate to support rotation with some of the stronger storms as they move through the area Monday evening into Monday night and Tuesday morning. While the threat for Tornadoes is low, the threat is there. At the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger storms. Heavy rain will also be a problem for some due to abundant moisture training over the same areas.

Here's the expected Rainfall from Monday through Wednesday

And here's the 5 day expected rainfall Monday through Saturday

Here's the current Storm outlook issued 2:00 AM EDT Monday September 17 2012. I have concerns this will shift more north in updates issued later today. I'll keep watching for a change.

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Statement from Storm Prediction Center 2:00 AM EDT Monday September 17 2012

THE SOUTHEAST...

NUMEROUS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE S CENTRAL U.S. UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SURFACE LOW. WITH TIME...THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS REGION AND INTO THE CAROLINAS.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES...ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/WEAKLY ROTATING CONVECTION. IN PARTICULAR...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS -- PROVIDING A ZONE OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCING THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...THIS ZONE OF ENHANCED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL -- WARRANTING AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA. A LARGER/LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA FOR WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IS BEING INTRODUCED FROM SRN LA ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITHIN THE BROADER WARM ADVECTION ZONE. WHILE SHIFTING W-E WITH TIME...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE ERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Tropical Storm Isaac soon to be a Hurricane - 10:30 AM EDT 8/25/12

Isaac now has winds of 65 MPH with higher gusts and is now moving West-Northwest at 20 MPH. Currently located at 23.5 North 80.0 West or about 135 Miles East-Southeast of Key West Florida and 155 Miles East of Havana Cuba. Central pressure now 995 MB. Isaac is expected to be or Near Hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Keys sometime today. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward 205 miles from Isaac's Center.

Isaac will impact the Florida Keys in the near term and is expected to strengthen as he continues tracking northwest into the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The current track of Isaac has shifted to the West at this time from previously and will shift [flip flop] until landfall which is still uncertain somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Once well into the Gulf of Mexico, computer models will get a better handle on Isaac and withing the next day or so we should will have a much better idea of where he is headed.

Radar from Key West Florida 10:16 AM EDT

* A Hurricane 'Warning' is in effect for the Florida Keys, Dry Tortunas, the West coast of FL from Bonita Beach Southward to Ocean Reef, Florida Bay and the Andros Islands in the Bahamas. * A Hurricane 'Watch' is in effect for the FL East coast from Golden Beach Southward to Ocean Reef, the Mouth of the Mississippi River 'NOT INCLUDING METRO NEW ORLEANS' to Indian Pass Florida.

You can find all the information on Isaac including Graphics on the Tropical Weather Page here .. and more ..

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available



You can find myself along with many others posting important information which is being constantly updated here - For rapid updates on Tropical Storm Isaac From 20 forecasters Covering 9 states along with professional and tropical meteorologist http://www.facebook.com/fftropicalzone , So hit the link and while you're there give the page a like.

Tropical Storm #Isaac - Georgia-Alabama-Florida Panhandle

First and foremost ... No one knows where this storm is going or what the strength will be at this time. Computer Models continue to flip flop with every run. What we are seeing are best guess tracks and wind speeds.

Now with that said .. at this time there is better than a 50% chance this storm which is likely to become a Hurricane and will impact the Florida Panhandle. Where exactly is to be determined.

Current information has Isaac as a Category 1 Hurricane at landfall. It is possible Isaac could be a category 2 hurricane at landfall but this is uncertain. Regardless of this, Isaac is a large storm as far as overall size. His winds will be felt miles from the center. At this time Tropical storm force winds [ minimum 39 miles per hour ] extend out from the center over 200 miles. In other words .. If Isaac were to make landfall in Pensacola Florida his tropical storm winds will be felt in central Alabama and Georgia. These kind of winds can cause damage as well as bringing down trees across power lines. Heavy rain is also expected which will cause flooding as well. There is also a threat for Tornadoes with any land falling Hurricane.

I am not one to hype up a storm, It is best though that folks in Florida, Georgia and Alabama prepare for what may be coming.

You can find all the information on the Tropical Weather Page here ..

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available


I will likely not have much time to post here in the days to come. However .. you can find myself along with many others posting important information which is being constantly updated here - For rapid updates on Tropical Storm Isaac From 20 forecasters Covering 9 states along with professional and tropical meteorologist http://www.facebook.com/fftropicalzone , So hit the link and while you're there give the page a like.

We have been covering this storm since the beginning well before others and we will be covering Isaac until the end.

Tropical Storm #Isaac 7:00 AM EDT 8/23/12

Last night I mentioned on my personal twitter account that it looked like Tropical Storm Isaac was jogging west-southwest on Satellite imagery.

Interesting, Satellite shows #Isaac jog to west southwest 11:15 PM EDT last night. ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl…
— Ed Quinn (@CataulaGaWX) August 23, 2012

Seems I was right after looking over some data this morning. Also while reviewing data this morning, he appears to continue jogging in this direction. So what is causing this ? A couple of things. We have a Bermuda High in the Atlantic rotating clockwise pushing from the Northeast to the southwest which is to the Northeast of Isaac, and a tropical upper tropospheric trough [Tutt] rotating counter clockwise that was to the west of Isaac. In this case the Bermuda high is stronger and helping to steer Isaac West-Southwest. You can see this on the Image below, a surface chart showing these features which I've highlighted for you.

What this means if it continues is, Isaac will likely for the short term delay interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba to his west and have time to grow and become stronger while continuing too transverse the warm waters of the Caribbean. Should this occur Isaac stands a greater chance of surviving and emerging a bit stronger than he would, once he does cross those Islands.

As for Isaac .. he is currently farther south situated at 15.3North 64.0West and is weaker with winds of 40mph this morning. He is moving to the West at 12mph and has a central pressure of 1004mb.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems



Computer models are all over the place at last look as they try to get a handle on him. So ... at this time the future track of Isaac remains uncertain for this reason and some influence from what was mentioned above. Florida, the Eastern Gulf coast and the Southeast Atlantic coastal states should continue to monitor Isaac. I think by Friday I should have a better idea where Isaac is going as far as exact location.

Several National Weather Service offices across the southeast will be releasing radiosondes [weather balloons] into the atmosphere every six hours beginning Friday to get a better handle on the trough over the southeast and the Bermuda high in the Atlantic. Until they and I have a better handle on things, I'm sticking with my previous thoughts of this storm going up the spine of Florida or there about and heading to the East Northeast. I am not one to chase computer models when they shift the track every run.

Tropical Storm #Isaac - #Invest96L - August 22 2012

Isaac still a Tropical Storm at this hour 'expected to become a Hurricane within the next 48 hours'. Currently located at 15.5North 57.3West about 280 Miles East of Guadeloupe, with winds of 45mph and is heading West at 18mph. The central pressure is 1003mb or 29.62inches. Isaac is showing better organization on satellite imagery and beginning to get the classic look of tropical systems. Isaac has an eye as reported by Hurricane Hunters currently investigating with a diameter of 10 nautical miles [ 12 statute miles ].

Outer rainbands are currently impacting the Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Isaac will impact the Leeward Islands Today. Some strengthening may occur before landfall. Tropical Storm winds which extend outward 45 miles form the center of Isaac will be felt before the center makes landfall. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 8 inches are expected in some areas before Isaac crosses and makes his way into the Western Caribbean Thursday morning.

* A 'Hurricane Watch' is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona Westward to the Haiti Dominican Republic Southern Border.

* A Tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe and St. Martin and surrounding Islands as well as St. Kits, Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* A tropical Storm 'Watch' is in effect for the North Coast of the Dominican Republic from Haiti Dominican Republic Northern Border Eastward to North of Isla Saona.

* Interest in and around these areas including Hispaniola and Cuba should be monitoring the progress of Isaac.
* I urge interest in Florida, the Eastern Gulf coastal areas and the East coast to remain vigilante as the forecast track of Isaac remains uncertain at this time.

Perspectivas De Las Condiciones Del Tiempo En El Tropico -
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/SJUTWOSP+shtml/220625.shtml

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems



I continue to watch [Invest 96L] in the East Atlantic about 650 Miles West-Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave has winds last reported of 30mph and is located at 11.5North 34.5West moving to the West-Northwest. As of 2:00 AM EDT 96L has a 90 percent chance of becoming our next depression or storm 'later today'. Once named it will be Joyce. The forecast track at this time remains uncertain. Next update from NHC on this system 8:00 AM EDT

I'll be keeping a close watch on both of these systems in the days to come.

Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Depression Six / Florida Disturbance 91L

UPDATE 7:48 AM 8/4/2012 Tropical Depression Six is NOW Tropical Storm Florence

Tropical Storm Ernesto

Ernesto continues his Westward track at this hour. As of 11 PM EDT Ernesto has winds of 50 MPH and is Moving West at 18 MPH with a Central Pressure of 1003 MB / 29.62 inches. The current position of Ernesto is 13.9 North 65.6 West for those plotting along.

At this time Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to Maintain his current track, forward speed and intensity for the next couple of days. On his current track Ernesto will move through the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea and approach Jamaica on Sunday. Interests in Jamaica should monitor Ernesto closely. A 'Tropical Storm Watch may be Issued' for areas of Jamaica on Saturday.

Forecast models show Ernesto entering the southeast Gulf of Mexico Monday or Tuesday possibly becoming a Weak Hurricane before making landfall or skirting the Yucatan Peninsula. 'Much remains uncertain at this time' if in fact Ernesto will maintain the westward track and intensity during this time and into the coming week. We urge all along the U.S. Gulf Coast to remain vigilant!

Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Storm Ernesto as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.

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Tropical Depression SIX UPDATE 7:48 AM 8/4/2012 Tropical Depression Six is NOW Tropical Storm Florence

Farther out in the Atlantic offshore of Africa about 240 Miles West Southwest of the Southern most Cape Verde Islands we have newly developed 'Tropical Depression SIX'. Currently Located at 13.8 North 27.8 West .. TD6 has sustained winds around 35 MPH with gusts around 45 MPH and is moving to the West Northwest at about 16 MPH. The central pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 Inches
Currently this Well defined Low Pressure Area has gotten it's act together, however drier air and cooler waters may inhibit further development in the coming days as it moves West Northwestward. I'll be watching this system in the days ahead.

Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.

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Florida Disturbance 91L

Closer to home we have a disturbance off the Southeast Coast of Florida. Currently designated Invest 91L. Computer models suggest this disturbance will move North / Northeast in the coming days and interact with land late Saturday or Sunday somewhere along South Florida possibly crossing and re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico. 'Much remains uncertain' if this disturbance has enough time to become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm due to it's current location adjacent to the Florida Peninsula. One thing is certain, it will be a rainmaker.

Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 2 PM EDT August 3 2012.

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Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.

 Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Storm Florence

Severe Storms Impacting Alabama and Georgia Tuesday July 31 2012

Severe Storms are already impacting North Alabama at this hour 1:45 AM EDT 7/31/2012. Numerous Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued thus far.

Looking at radar trends the past few hours the overall coverage of the MCS [ Mesoscale Convective System ] storm complex early this morning is yet to fill in, it is still on track to better organize and bring more severe weather to areas in Alabama and Georgia through this morning and the afternoon hours. The greatest threat will be Damaging winds along with hail, heavy rains and copious amounts of lightning as reported via twitter.

The first round of severe weather is as stated currently impacting areas of North Alabama. I feel as though this area will continue to impact this area and to the south in Central Alabama through the early morning hours. I also feel that the activity entering Northern Georgia will intensify in the coming hours and possibly impact the Atlanta area between 6 and 8 AM this morning.

This complex of storms will continue to build and regenerate throughout the day rotating around the eastern fringe of high pressure located to the west. The storm will rotate in a clockwise manner basically training from North to south.

Here is a panel showing Simulated Radar beginning at 5 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012 and running through 5 PM EDT. At this time now 2 AM EDT the simulation has a fairly good handle on what is currently occurring. Click Images to Enlarge.

Here is a graphic showing what I think the movement of the storms will be through the morning and should also occur throughout the day, rotating in the clockwise manner mentioned above.

Here are the most recent graphics issued by the Storm Prediction Center this morning at 2 AM EDT.

Much of the southeast is covered by the 'Slight Risk' category for seeing Severe Storms.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Much of the Southeast has a 15% chance while an elevated risk of 30% exist for south Georgia, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. While hail has been reported early this morning, it remains a low risk of seeing any. Only 5% for the entire area.

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See the lead up to this event posted Monday July 30 2012 at 5:40 AM EDT here - Georgia / Alabama Possible Severe Storms Tuesday July 31 2012

You can find me on Twitter and Facebook during severe weather events such as this where I post updates and any other time as well. Twitter - https://twitter.com/cataulagawx and Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Georgia Drought Update: Good news and bad news - June 29 2012

The good news; Some areas of Georgia and the southeast saw drought relief. The bad news; Some areas didn't !

Areas that saw drought relief are pretty much the same areas that saw drought relief earlier this month from Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical Storm Debby was responsible for bringing drought relief to these areas this time. Rain from Debby and Beryl did help the drought situation in areas of Southeast Georgia, North Florida, and other areas. It did little for North and Central Georgia overall.

Here's a graphic showing drought conditions in Georgia. On the left: Drought conditions on June 5 before Tropical Storm Debby. On the right: Current drought conditions as of June 26 2012 after Debby.

Here's a graphic showing the Drought conditions in the Southeast for the same time period. Notice Florida, where drought for the most part has been wiped out. On the left: Drought conditions on June 5 before TS Debby. On the right: Current drought conditions as of June 26 2012 after TS Debby.

Here's a panel showing 30 DAY Observed Precipitation TOP, Normal precipitation BOTTOM LEFT and Departure from Normal BOTTOM RIGHT for Georgia, Alabama, North Florida and South Carolina. The big winner in the last 30 days is Florida.

Here's the current U.S. drought severity index on the LEFT and how much precipitation would be required on the RIGHT to end drought conditions across the U.S.. [NOTE: The end of a drought is defined by a PHDI value of -0.5.]

Here's the current drought severity in the U.S.. ON the LEFT June 5 and on the RIGHT current as of June 26 2012.

Here's the 3 month Temperature and Precipitation outlook for the U.S.. It's not looking good as Temps will be above normal for much of the county drying things out even more and chances of rain for the most part are equal save some intervention by tropical systems in the south.

Here's the Drought Outlook for June 21 through September 30 2012. Again, not looking good !

Here's a panel from May 2012 showing Precipitation REQUIRED to end drought conditions in 3 months TOP LEFT. The PROBABILITY of Receiving the Required precipitation TOP RIGHT. Precipitation required to improve drought conditions BOTTOM LEFT and the PROBABILITY of Receiving it BOTTOM RIGHT to improve drought conditions.

All in all, drought conditions are likely to continue for the next 3 months and likely beyond that for areas currently experiencing drought in the U.S..