Cataula GA WX: Tropical Storm Florence

Monday, August 20, 2012

Catching up after busy times ...

Between forecasting and monitoring weather with the 'team' during the Dew Tour in Ocean City Maryland, doctors appointments and life, I've had little time to update the blog. Glad there were no major weather events for the south, but that may be a coming.

During my absence we had 'Tropical Storm Florence' which dissipated.

We had 'Tropical Storm Helene' which formed from the Remnants of Tropical Depression Seven TD7, which then moved into Mexico this weekend August 18 2012 becoming Post Tropical and dissipating.

Then came 'Hurricane Gordon' which at my last look before getting busy was Invest 92L. Gordon re-curved away for the U.S. and pretty much lost it becoming a tropical depression. Gordon then regenerated into a hurricane and is now August 20 2012 a tropical storm impacting the Azores.

Next on the list is 'Isaac' currently Invest 94L. I'll be keeping a close eye on this one and the tropical page will be updated once it is named likely in the next 24 hours.

Saturday, August 4, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Depression Six / Florida Disturbance 91L

UPDATE 7:48 AM 8/4/2012 Tropical Depression Six is NOW Tropical Storm Florence

Tropical Storm Ernesto

Ernesto continues his Westward track at this hour. As of 11 PM EDT Ernesto has winds of 50 MPH and is Moving West at 18 MPH with a Central Pressure of 1003 MB / 29.62 inches. The current position of Ernesto is 13.9 North 65.6 West for those plotting along.

At this time Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to Maintain his current track, forward speed and intensity for the next couple of days. On his current track Ernesto will move through the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea and approach Jamaica on Sunday. Interests in Jamaica should monitor Ernesto closely. A 'Tropical Storm Watch may be Issued' for areas of Jamaica on Saturday.

Forecast models show Ernesto entering the southeast Gulf of Mexico Monday or Tuesday possibly becoming a Weak Hurricane before making landfall or skirting the Yucatan Peninsula. 'Much remains uncertain at this time' if in fact Ernesto will maintain the westward track and intensity during this time and into the coming week. We urge all along the U.S. Gulf Coast to remain vigilant!

Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Storm Ernesto as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.

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Tropical Depression SIX UPDATE 7:48 AM 8/4/2012 Tropical Depression Six is NOW Tropical Storm Florence

Farther out in the Atlantic offshore of Africa about 240 Miles West Southwest of the Southern most Cape Verde Islands we have newly developed 'Tropical Depression SIX'. Currently Located at 13.8 North 27.8 West .. TD6 has sustained winds around 35 MPH with gusts around 45 MPH and is moving to the West Northwest at about 16 MPH. The central pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 Inches
Currently this Well defined Low Pressure Area has gotten it's act together, however drier air and cooler waters may inhibit further development in the coming days as it moves West Northwestward. I'll be watching this system in the days ahead.

Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.

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Florida Disturbance 91L

Closer to home we have a disturbance off the Southeast Coast of Florida. Currently designated Invest 91L. Computer models suggest this disturbance will move North / Northeast in the coming days and interact with land late Saturday or Sunday somewhere along South Florida possibly crossing and re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico. 'Much remains uncertain' if this disturbance has enough time to become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm due to it's current location adjacent to the Florida Peninsula. One thing is certain, it will be a rainmaker.

Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 2 PM EDT August 3 2012.