Georgia Drought Update - Huge Improvement - February 28 2013 #gawx

Heavy rains during February some which were record breaking, have wiped out 'extreme drought conditions' in Georgia and the Southeast. However, Pockets of 'Severe drought' remain in areas of Central and East Georgia extending into Northeast Florida. So even though the southeast had some good rain, drought still persists, and it won't take long if dry conditions move in for drought conditions to increase once again throughout the area.

Some areas of Georgia saw record breaking rainfall amounts. One such area was Columbus Georgia where they saw 13.51 inches of precipitation in February, breaking the record of 9.41 inches for the same period. The 'all time monthly precipitation record' of 13.62 inches in December of 2009 still stands.

Here at my location, my February rainfall total is 13.29 inches. Here are some other Precipitation Totals for February across Georgia

Albany   -   8.77 inches
Athens   -   7.66 inches
Atlanta  -   9.02 inches
Augusta  -   9.40 inches
Columbus -  13.51 inches
Macon    -  13.75 inches
Savannah -   9.75 inches
Valdosta -   5.39 inches

Georgia / Southeast drought January 1 thru February 26 2013




February Rainfall thru Feb. 26 2013

Heavy Rain / Flooding Issues for Georgia and Alabama #gawx #alwx

Rain moves back in Thursday Night / Friday Morning. There is the possibility by Late Friday evening .. thundershowers could be in the area but at this time it looks like mainly a rain event. On Monday there is an outside possibility conditions could come together for some stronger thunderstorms in the area. This is something that will need to be watched.

The bigger threat at this time will be heavy rain expected Friday through Tuesday, with flooding issues.

The first round expected on Friday through Saturday will likely bring rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches in North Georgia and 3 to 4 inches in central Georgia and Alabama, with higher amounts possible. Sunday looks like we'll have a short break with the next round of rain coming in on Monday through Tuesday, where rainfall amounts of an additional 2 inches could be in store. Total rainfall amounts for the entire period range from 1 to 3 inches over North Georgia / Alabama and 4 to 6 inches over Central and Southern Georgia / Alabama .




Flooding issues .... With heavy rains in Georgia and Alabama the past 2 weeks between 2 and 8 inches, the ground remains moist to wet in areas. This will not allow rainfall in the coming days to be absorbed quickly. This will cause extra runoff into low lying areas, creeks and rivers and cause them to rise at a quicker rate than normal. Flash Flooding will be likely in many areas including Roads.




Rivers and creeks are currently running higher than normal due to previous rainfall and widespread minor flooding is likely, with isolated significant flooding possible. This is something that needs to be monitored in the coming days.

Possibility of Southeast Severe Weather Saturday thru Monday - December 15 2012

It seems our Second Severe Season has arrived albeit a bit late. Normally the fall severe weather begins in Mid to late November in the southeast. November this year was quite with the exception of a potential severe weather event in the southeast that never materialized during the Nov. 11^th thru 13^th time frame. If you were around this past week you may recall the Storms and Tornadoes in the Southeast on December 10 2012. on with the show ...

This coming bout of potential Severe weather will begin Late Saturday in the ARK-LA-MISS area shifting east with time into Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida. There remains uncertainty with the system as to timing and how strong storms may become due to how strong the upper level low pressure expected to develop in the northern tiers of this region becomes. The stronger the ULL, the more moisture it will pull north from the Gulf of Mexico into an already somewhat unstable air mass closer to the coast and extending northward. Regardless, am expecting some strong storms with isolated severe at this time throughout the region beginning today thru Monday again spreading west to east. Right now [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] confidence is somewhat LOW to the severe side based on how much cloud cover and rain occurs ahead of the frontal system in the warm sector.

Threats with this system will be in the form of Isolated strong to severe storms with the potential for a few Tornadoes with stronger storms possible. While the threat of tornadoes looks low at this time, a couple can't be entirely ruled out due to increasing shear layer to layer which may became surface based over time supporting Bowing Line areas capable of Damaging Straight Line winds and Isolated Supercells which may spawn a Tornado. There is also a threat of Flash Flooding in areas with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. As always .. not everyone will experience severe storms.

Today through Tomorrow morning the main threat will be the possibility of Damaging winds associated with strong thunderstorms that may develop generally in the afternoon and evening hours continuing through the overnight. ... On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday. On Sunday the Storm Prediction Center at this time [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] has an area highlighted for an elevated risk for strong to severe storms. We'll see how this area looks later today for possible increase in severity or even a decrease. For now here is what they have for Sunday Morning through Monday Morning. [click image to embiggen]

Here's the anticipated Rain Amounts Today through Tuesday Morning

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Nor'easter will be No Sandy - November 4 2012

The Nor'easter expected to impact areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this week will be No Sandy. However due to earlier damage caused by Hurricane Sandy in these areas this storm will have a greater impact.

With that said, we can sill expect strong to gusty winds in areas from 40 to 50 mph which will hamper repair of downed power lines. Winds will also be capable of bringing down tress and branches already weakened from Sandy.

'Minor to Moderate coastal flooding' with the high tide around Midday Wednesday looking like the best time for storm surge. With many area beaches and coastal property already having erosion, it is likely this storm will add to this.

'Rain amounts' of up to 4 inches can be expected at this time in and around the areas closer to the coast with lesser amounts inland. Due to flooded areas which at this time have not receded any extra water will cause them to rise, and may also cause areas to flood again.

'Snow will also be a concern' on the backside of the counter clockwise flow around the storm. Areas likely to see snow at this time are inland in PA, NJ and NY maybe even as far south as VA; these areas 'could' see 1 to 4 inches maybe more. I think the New England area 'could' see 8 to 15 inches depending on storm path. Uncertainty remains at this time in this as we are still days away form this storm impacting the northeast and the final path is unknown, whether it will hug the coast or be farther away.


Projected Path of Nor'easter Tuesday November 6 thru Friday November 9 2012

Forecast Rain amounts Nov 4 thru Nov 9

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Hurricane #Sandy Landfall 5:00 to 7:00 PM EDT | Update 2:00 PM EDT 10/29/12

At 940mb, Sandy is now the strongest hurricane recorded north of North Carolina!

Time of the center making landfall likely 5:00 to 7:00 PM EDT.
Per a tweet at 1:01 PM EDT Today from Dr. Greg Forbes @DrGregForbes from the weather Channel: "Sandy is speeding up, moving northwest at 25-30 mph. It could make landfall south NJ around 5PM. Hurricane winds approaching NJ, south NY."
*Note: At the source link, timestamp is wrong. source: https://twitter.com/DrGregForbes/status/262962284517801984

Winds continue to increase with Sandy. Estimated wind speed at landfall or before the center moves inland are near 100 mph. Wind gusts of 50-60+ mph are being reported along the NJ, NY, MA coasts and gusting to 66 mph at JFK Airport in NYC. Numerous power outages are coming in from various news sources with reports of 150,000 without power. This will continue and worsen as Sandy nears landfall south of Atlantic City.

Currently - Winds: 90 mph | Pressure 940 mb | Location: 38.3N 73.1W (175 miles South-southeast of New York City New York and 110 miles Southeast of Atlantic City New Jersey) | Moving Northwest at 28 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out 485 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. A tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for North of surf City to Duck North Carolina and Pamlico / Albemarle sounds. Please Check previous posts Below for more information on expected impacts.

Hurricane #Sandy Life Threatening May Strengthen further - 11:00 AM EDT 10/29/12

Sandy continues to strengthen and may, 'may' become a category 2 Hurricane before weakening. Regardless of this, this is a dangerous storm and should bot be taken lightly.

Complete your final preparations if you haven't already done so. Stay inside. Stay off the roads. Avoid floodwater's and downed power lines if you do travel out [NOT RECOMMENDED]. Continue to listen to local officials & follow the forecast.

A reminder if you are riding this dangerous storm out and have already been asked to evacuate or evacuating is/was recommended. Emergency Personal / First Responders will not be risking their lives to come save you. Even if they choose too, it is likely they wouldn't be able due to flooding, downed trees and other debris blocking many roads.

Currently - Winds: 90 mph | Pressure 943 mb | Location: 33.5N 71.5W (260 miles South-southeast of New York City New York and 205 miles Southeast of Atlantic City New Jersey) | Moving North-Northwest at 18 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out 485 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. A tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for North of surf City to Duck North Carolina and Pamlico / Albemarle sounds. Please Check previous posts for more information on expected impacts.

When Sandy goes Post-Tropical later today, the Foot's Forecast: Severe Storm Center will be issuing updates and they will be shared with this page.

Hurricane #Sandy - #Wind #StormSurge #Rain #Snow - 8:00 AM EDT 10/29/12

[Cross posted from Foot’s Forecast: The Tropical Zone, time is short, info current as of 8 AM EDT]

Good morning folks. We hope you are as prepared as you can be. If not, you should be finalizing your preparations as time is running out for you to do so. Heed all warnings and advisories issued by your local weather service and media outlets. Sandy is now expected to be a 'strong Category 1 Hurricane with winds of 90 mph at landfall'. At this time we have determined Sandy [the center] will make landfall in the area of northern Delaware and Southern New Jersey, in the Delaware Bay early Tuesday morning. When Sandy goes Post-Tropical later today, the Foot's Forecast: Severe Storm Center will be issuing updates and they will be shared with Foot’s Forecast: The Tropical Zone.

Currently - Winds: 85 mph | Pressure 946 mb | Location: 36.8N 71.1W (310 miles South-southeast of New York City New York and 265 miles Southeast of Atlantic City New Jersey) | Moving North-Northwest at 20 mph. Currently Tropical storm force winds extend out 485 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. Sandy will be felt long before the center makes landfall. A tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect from Cape Fear to duck North Carolina, Pamlico / Albemarle sounds and Bermuda.

Hurricane force winds are expected between Chincoteague Virgina and Chatam Massachusetts including the Tidal Potomas from Cobb Island to Smith Point, the Middle and Upper Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, The coasts of the Northern Delmarva Peninsula, New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Tropical storm Force winds are expected North of Chatam to the Merrimack River Massachusetts, the Lower Chesapeake Bay, South of Chincoteague to Duck North Carolina.

*Threats*

Winds in and around the area 'could be stronger' or weaker. It all depends on how strong Sandy Gets.: Winds as strong as but not limited to 'Hurricane Force [74 mph to 95 mph / Category 1]' strength will reach the Mid-Atlantic states including New York City and Long Island 'later today'. Elevated Winds will likely be 'Stronger' than those near ground level. These stronger winds will affect the 'upper floors of high rise buildings'. Stay away from the windows if you live on upper floors. Winds may also be stronger due to the funneling effect caused by buildings and other structures. Tropical Storm force winds [39 mph to 73 mph] and or Gale force Winds [39 mph to 54 mph] are already being felt from North Carolina 'northward' to Long Island. These winds are expected to spread to other areas of the Mid-Atlantic coast, New York City and Southern New England later this morning and today.

Storm Surge measured 'above ground' - It 'could be more' or less. It all depends on the timing [high tide/low tide] and how strong Sandy Gets. :
Long Island Sound / Paritan Bay / New York Harbor - 6 to 11 Feet
Fron Ocean City Maryland to the Connecticut / Rhode Island Border - 4 to 8 Feet
North Carolina North of Surf City including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds - 4 to 6 Feet
Connecticut / Rhode Island Border to the South Shore of Cape Cod including Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay - 3 to 6 Feet
Southeast Virginia and Delmarva including the Lower Chesapeake Bay - 2 to 4 Feet
Cape Cod to the Massachusetts / New Hampshire border including Cap Cod Bay - 2 to 4 Feet
Upper and Middle Chesapeake Bay - 1 to 3 Feet
Massachusetts / New Hampshire border to the United States / Canadian Border - 1 to 3 Feet

Rainfall from the coast further inland will likely cause flooding in low areas and flash flooding in other areas. Be aware of this as there is low confidence in forecasting 'flash floods'.: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches expected in and around Northeastern North Carolina with isolated amounts of 8 inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected in the Mid-Atlantic States and the Delmarva Peninsula with isolated amounts of 12 inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected in the Southern Tier of New York State Northeastward through New England with isolated amounts of 5 inches possible.

Snowfall: Areas of Eastern West Virginia , Western Virginia, Western North Carolina, Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Tennessee are currently under a Blizzard Warning and or Winter Storm Warning. In the 'blizzard warned areas' Heavy snow with white-out conditions can be expected with deep drifts and dangerous wind chill likely. In the 'winter storm warned areas' Heavy wet snow, heavy freezing rain and or heavy sleet can be expected.
Snow amounts expected range from '2 to 3 Feet' in the mountains of West Virginia with locally higher amounts possible 'today through Wednesday'. Snow amounts expected range from '1 to 2 Feet' in the mountains of Southwestern Virginia to the Kentucky Border and '12 to 18 inches' in the mountains near the North Carolina / Tennessee border and in the mountains of Western Maryland.


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Hurricane #Sandy may Strengthen a little - October 28 2012

Hurricane Sandy is showing signs of strengthening but it's not a guarantee she will. Hurricane Sandy will be in warm waters of the Atlantic Gulf Stream as she continues to head northward. I expect a slight increase in her strength as far as sustained winds, maybe up to 80 mph around her core. Once she enters cooler waters to her north she will maintain her strength but will not strengthen further.

Here's the latest on Sandy as of 8:00 AM EDT - Winds: 75 mph | Pressure 951 mb | Location: 32.1N 73.1W (395 miles East of New York City New York and 260 miles Southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina) | Moving NE at 10 mph. Currently Tropical storm force winds extend out 520 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. A tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect from Cape Fear to duck North Carolina, Pamlico and Alnemarle sounds and Bermuda.

What kind of weather to expect and threats ... Along the east coast as Sandy heads in a northward direction expect winds to increase ahead of her. Tropical Storm Force winds will be felt today along the outer-banks of North Carolina spreading northward, as well as ruff surf and storm surge. Heavy tropical rains can also be expected along the coast decreasing further inland. Remember as Sandy Moves Northward so shall the adverse weather. Sandy is a large storm and her effects will be felt far from her center. It is important that you not concentrate on where her center is located on a map because of this. Effect's will be felt long before the center of the storm is near or over land.

For those of you in the Mid Atlantic, Northeast and Southern New England areas, if you haven't made preparations yet, Now would be the time to do so. High wind watches and warnings are currently in effect for many areas including the Mid Atlantic and New England in advance of Sandy. I urge you to take all Warnings issued by your local national weather service office seriously. Continue to monitor your local media and national weather service offices for Watches and Warning specific to your local area.


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 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information as this storm unfolds at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone .

On a side note - While I am fully capable of speaking weather lingo, I leave it out in most if not all of my posts. I do this because you the general public are likely not to understand it. I give you what you need. Simple, relevant to the point facts and information. Besides, it gives me a headache hahaha. ~ ED

Tropical Storm #Sandy .. What's in a name ?

Don't focus on what Sandy will be called in days ahead. Whether a Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Post tropical or extra tropical. She's going to cause problems for many regardless of her name and characteristics.

Depending on the exact track Sandy takes along the east coast, 'at this time' areas in North Carolina Today and spreading northward along the Mid Atlantic coast Tonight through Monday can expect rainfall of 1-4 inches with higher totals approaching 8 inches possible in some areas closer to the coast. Minor coastal flooding is expected in low lying areas with some beach erosion due to high surf up to 6 or 7 feet and Gusty winds between 30-40 mph with gusts approaching 60-70 mph possible. Flooding and loss of electricity is also possible inland.

At this time here's what you can expect 'before and during landfall' and 'inland after landfall' .. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm force winds for many hours possibly longer. Heavy rains of 8 to 12 inches along the coast and inland causing flooding issues for many. Coastal flooding and erosion for hours due to hurricane/tropical storm force winds and 'tidal surge'. Power outages widespread, Trees down, Roads closed due to debris / flooding and wash out, Airports and other transportation halted. Basic services shut down for days, a week or longer in some areas. To add to all that as if that's not enough, major snowfall measured in 'Feet' is likely for some areas west of the system in areas of Western Virginia, West Virginia, Southwest Pennsylvania. In surrounding areas of Ohio, Northeast Kentucky back into Indiana snowfall is likely as well as to the north of the system in areas of Southern New York State, East and Northeastern areas of Pennsylvania. There may be some icing issues too.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available


Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone as this storm unfolds. You can head over to Foot's Forecast [Website] for more insight and see what goes into understanding a storm like this.

Follow @Cataulagawx

Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama, Florida Panhandle on Monday 10/01/2012

Already today [ Sunday 9/30/12 ] there have been 'isolated tornadoes' in Mississippi with damage reported and the threat may continue to increase through this evening for areas in Southeast Louisiana, Southern and Central Mississippi and West Central / Southwest Alabama. Likely the threat of strong storms will continue through the overnight into Monday morning as well.

Looks like at this time the severe threat on Monday will be greatest in the Afternoon through late evening into the early overnight if anything comes from it. Possibility of strong storms Monday into Tuesday as well. At the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger thunderstorms. This is not a widespread threat. Isolated severe only. Not everyone will experience serve weather.

Wind shear will be adequate to support rotation with some of the stronger storms as they move from West to East through the area Monday through Monday night and possibly Tuesday morning. While the threat for Tornadoes is low, the threat is there. Heavy rain could also be a problem causing Flash Flooding for some due to abundant moisture being pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico over the same areas.


Here's the current Storm outlook issued 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012. This will likely shift north in updates issued later as the Low and adjacent fronts continue pushing East and North.

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Statement from Storm Prediction Center 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ERN AL AND WRN GA MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45 KT. IN ADDITION...LCL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 500 METERS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE AL AND NW GA INTO SE TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE 9:45 AM 9/17/2012 - Georgia, Alabama, Florida Panhandle, Mississippi

The SPC has shifted the area of potentially Severe Storms and Isolated Tornadoes for Today through late this Monday evening through the overnight into Tuesday morning from previously [see below - Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama and Florida Panhandle - Monday 9/17/2012]. It now includes West Central Georgia through East Central and South Alabama, the Western Florida Panhandle and Southeast Mississippi.

The threats remain unchanged : Isolated Tornadoes, Strong to Severe Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and Heavy rain at times.

Not everyone will see severe weather.

Latest graphics issued 9 AM EDT

Click Image to Enlarge

Radar
Southeast



Southern Mississippi Valley



As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama and Florida Panhandle - Monday 9/17/2012

Tornado Threat Today highest in Central Georgia, Southeast Alabama, North Florida Panhandle 5% 'risk' and surrounding areas at 2%. Risk of localized flooding as well due to Expected heavy rains over same areas.

Looks like at this time severe threat will happen Late Monday into Tuesday if anything comes from it. Possibility of strong storms toady into Tuesday, at the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger thunderstorms. This is not a widespread threat. Isolated severe only. Not everyone will experience serve weather.

As I alluded to on Sunday in this tweet, cross posted on Facebook ...

Plenty of rain still in forecast and may get bumpy Monday for some. Know more later. #gawx

— Ed Quinn (@CataulaGaWX) September 16, 2012

A little bumpy ... I saw from modeling early Sunday cape would be marginal for thunderstorms. I also saw where wind shear would be adequate to support rotation with some of the stronger storms as they move through the area Monday evening into Monday night and Tuesday morning. While the threat for Tornadoes is low, the threat is there. At the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger storms. Heavy rain will also be a problem for some due to abundant moisture training over the same areas.

Here's the expected Rainfall from Monday through Wednesday

And here's the 5 day expected rainfall Monday through Saturday

Here's the current Storm outlook issued 2:00 AM EDT Monday September 17 2012. I have concerns this will shift more north in updates issued later today. I'll keep watching for a change.

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Statement from Storm Prediction Center 2:00 AM EDT Monday September 17 2012

THE SOUTHEAST...

NUMEROUS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE S CENTRAL U.S. UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SURFACE LOW. WITH TIME...THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS REGION AND INTO THE CAROLINAS.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES...ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/WEAKLY ROTATING CONVECTION. IN PARTICULAR...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS -- PROVIDING A ZONE OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCING THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...THIS ZONE OF ENHANCED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL -- WARRANTING AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA. A LARGER/LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA FOR WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IS BEING INTRODUCED FROM SRN LA ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITHIN THE BROADER WARM ADVECTION ZONE. WHILE SHIFTING W-E WITH TIME...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE ERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

#Isaac still expected to become #Hurricane make #Landfall today - August 28 2012

Tropical storm Isaac is still expected to become a minimal hurricane before making landfall along the Gulf coast in the Louisiana Mississippi Alabama area.

Right now Isaac is still a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph and continues moving to the Northwest at 12 mph. At 4:00 am CDT Isaac was about 125 miles south-southeast of the Mississippi River and about 205 miles south-southeast of Biloxi Mississippi. Isaac is expected to strengthen in the hours before landfall and will as mentioned be a minimal hurricane with anticipated winds of maximum 85 mph, there will be higher gusts. There will likely be a few Tornadoes as well.

The Eyewall of Isaac this morning..

Isaac is large and his winds will be felt before the center makes landfall.tropical storm force winds extend outward of 205 miles for Isaac's center. Heavy rains and high storm surge will also become problematic causing flooding with storm surge of:

6-12 FEET in Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi
4-8 FEET in Alabama
3-6 FEET in South Central Louisiana
3-6 FEET in Florida Panhandle
1-3 FEET in Florida west coast including Apalachee Bay

Rainfall Potential for the area:

You can find all the information on Isaac including Graphics.. and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Tropical Storm #Isaac - Georgia-Alabama-Florida Panhandle

First and foremost ... No one knows where this storm is going or what the strength will be at this time. Computer Models continue to flip flop with every run. What we are seeing are best guess tracks and wind speeds.

Now with that said .. at this time there is better than a 50% chance this storm which is likely to become a Hurricane and will impact the Florida Panhandle. Where exactly is to be determined.

Current information has Isaac as a Category 1 Hurricane at landfall. It is possible Isaac could be a category 2 hurricane at landfall but this is uncertain. Regardless of this, Isaac is a large storm as far as overall size. His winds will be felt miles from the center. At this time Tropical storm force winds [ minimum 39 miles per hour ] extend out from the center over 200 miles. In other words .. If Isaac were to make landfall in Pensacola Florida his tropical storm winds will be felt in central Alabama and Georgia. These kind of winds can cause damage as well as bringing down trees across power lines. Heavy rain is also expected which will cause flooding as well. There is also a threat for Tornadoes with any land falling Hurricane.

I am not one to hype up a storm, It is best though that folks in Florida, Georgia and Alabama prepare for what may be coming.

You can find all the information on the Tropical Weather Page here ..

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available


I will likely not have much time to post here in the days to come. However .. you can find myself along with many others posting important information which is being constantly updated here - For rapid updates on Tropical Storm Isaac From 20 forecasters Covering 9 states along with professional and tropical meteorologist http://www.facebook.com/fftropicalzone , So hit the link and while you're there give the page a like.

We have been covering this storm since the beginning well before others and we will be covering Isaac until the end.

Tropical Depression #Debby Less Organized Heading into Atlantic | Full Track | June 27 2012

Debby is back on track moving east/northeast after a short jog to the southeast late last night. She is now heading E/NE at 10MPH and positioned at 29.6N / 81.0W or about 25 miles Southeast of St. Augustine Florida. Her winds are still 35MPH and her central pressure is 998MB or 29.47 inches.

Debby's track as of 2:00 Am EDT June 27 2012: Shows track from beginning North of the Yucatan peninsula as a low pressure system on June 22 2012 designated 'Invest 96L'. Becoming Tropical Storm Debby on June 23 2012. Then becoming a Tropical Depression shortly after landfall on the Florida west coast June 26 2012.

Debby is expected to continue on her current track to the east northeast and enter the Atlantic Ocean sometime today / this morning. Once in the Atlantic her forward speed will increase she may intensify in the coming days. It is uncertain at this time how strong Debby may become, but she does have potential energy to work with from the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. We will continue to monitor Debby over the coming days.

Most of the rains early this morning remain off the east coast of Florida, with a few bands to the south still making their way through Central and Southern Florida. In the central and south, some rain heavy at times may be expected and may cause issues from training over the same areas until Debby moves farther away.

Heavy rains over the past few days are expected to continue to cause flooding issues due to runoff into local creeks and rivers. If you live around any of these areas it is requested that you monitor conditions closely.

All Coastal Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been discontinued. There remains a few areas on the west coast of Florida at this time under coastal flood warnings. Areas in north Florida and Southeast Georgia remain under Flood warnings. Check with your local National Weather Service offices to see if you are under any of these Warnings here - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

Tropical Storm #Debby on the move again / Forecast Track - June 26 2012

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains in Effect from Mexico Beach southward to Englewood.

Debby continues moving eastward at this hour while maintaining her strength. Heavy Rains are expected to continue in Northern Florida and Southeast Georgia.

Currently Debby is centered about 70 Miles West of Cedar Key Florida [ Levy County ] and moving East around 3 MPH. Sustained winds this hour are still 40 MPH. Tropical Storm Force winds extend out about 240 Miles from her center located at Latitude 28.9 NORTH Longitude 84.2 WEST, and a central pressure of 993 MB or 29.32 Inches.

The Forecast Track for Debby continues to move her to the East and Northeast making Landfall in the Big Bend area around Cedar Key Florida. Time of landfall is still uncertain at this time. Debby will still be a Tropical Storm while making Landfall. After making landfall Debby is expected to loose some of her strength while over land, and become a Tropical Depression. Debby is then expected to continue to the Northeast reemerging in the Atlantic and may once again become a Tropical Storm. The re-intensification of Debby remains uncertain at this time due to her interaction with land. We'll keep a close eye on Debby!

Current Forecast Track as of 11 Am EDT

For more information on Debby and other Tropical weather, see the Tropical Weather Page


While winds with Debby have had minimal impacts, the big story is the rains associated with her. Numerous reports of Flooding and Flash Flooding have been reported in North Florida due to the rains and storm surge. The hardest hit area at this time is Wakulla County where the Sopchoppy River near Sopchoppy Florida is expected to crest at 41 feet; Flood stage is 28 feet. The National Weather Service in Tallahassee at this time reports the Sopchoppy River Gauge has Failed due to impacts from debris. Last report received was at 9:00 PM EDT Last night with a level of 31.41 Feet. Surrounding counties in the area also affected are Southeast Liberty county, North Franklin county, South Leon county, South Jefferson county, and Northwest Taylor county. See Tropical Storm #Debby Flooding / Road Closures For images.

Rainfall totals form 3 and 7 AM EDT this morning June 26 2012

This is from 8 Am This morning

At 4:00 AM EDT The National Weather Service in Tallahassee issued a Flood Warning for Urban areas and small Streams in the following Locations until 10:00 AM EDT: JEFFERSON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...SOUTH CENTRAL LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...MADISON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN FLORIDA...WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

At 5:40 AM EDT The National Weather Service in Jacksonville issued the following Statement: FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...GEORGIA...ST MARY`S RIVER AT MACCLENNY AFFECTING BAKER...NASSAU...CAMDEN ANDCHARLTON COUNTIES...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...SUWANNEE RIVER AT WHITE SPRINGS AFFECTING COLUMBIA AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST....MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

You can find information on Florida Road closures here - Florida's Statewide 511 Website

Tropical Storm #Debby Flooding / Road Closures

4:00 AM EDT - 3:00 AM CDT 6/26/2012

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM MEXICO BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

Debby is nearly stationary at this time, continuing to pour heavy amounts of rain in already flooded areas of North Florida. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION, as Debby will remain in the area for a few more days dropping more rain on already flooded areas. At this time the area hardest hit is Wakulla county, Southeast Liberty county, North Franklin county, South Leon county, South Jefferson county, and Northwest Taylor county.

Extreme flooding concerns at this hour along the Sopchoppy River near Sopchoppy Florida where it is expected to crest at 41 feet, Flood stage is 28 feet. At 9:00 PM EDT / 8:00 PM CDT June 25 2012, a level was observed of 31.41 Feet. Voluntary evacuations in Wakulla county for homes along the Sopchoppy River, upper St. Marks River, the Ochlockonee River, and low lying areas throughout the county are RECOMMENDED.

Current Road Closures in Florida as of 3 AM EDT / 2 AM CDT June 26 2012:

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-377 [ALL AREA] x[SR375] [SOPCHOPPY] - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER - CAUTION WATER COMING OVER ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: US-98 x[BOTTOMS RD] [PANACEA] - CAUTION WATER COMING OVER ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: CR-375 x[SYFRETTE CREEK RD] [SOPCHOPPY] - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER - CAUTION WATER COMING OVER ROADWAY - CAUTION ROADWAY IS CLOSED USE ALTERNATE ROUTE

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-30 x[RUNNING DEER LN] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: SOPCHOPPY HWY x[ALLEN-GREEN RD] [SOPCHOPPY] - ROADWAY CLOSED NO TRAFFIC PERMITTED - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: LOWER BRIDGE RD x[TIGER HAMMOCK RD] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-30 x[WALKER FARM RD] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: SHELL POINT RD (CR-367) x[SPRING CREEK HWY (CR-365)] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - ROADWAY CLOSED EXCEPT TO RESIDENCE ONLY - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: SURF RD [MASHES SAND] x[SR-30] [PANACEA] - ROADWAY CLOSED EXCEPT TO RESIDENCE ONLY - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-30 x[WILDWOOD DR] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - EASTBOUND LANE UNDER WATER - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: PORT LEON DR x[NEWPORT RD] [ST MARKS] - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

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FRANKLIN COUNTY: ISLAND DR [ST GEORGE ISLAND BRIDGE] x[US98] [EASTPOINT] - BRIDGE CLOSED CURFEW ENFORCED AT 8:00 PM NO ENTRY ONTO THE ISLAND BY ANYONE

FRANKLIN COUNTY: ALLIGATOR DR x[SR-30] [ALLIGATOR POINT] - ROADWAY CLOSED CURFEW ENFORCED AT 8:00 PM NO ENTRY TO ALLIGATOR POINT BY ANYONE

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JEFFERSON COUNTY: SR-59 x[WHITEHOUSE RD] [LLOYD] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

JEFFERSON COUNTY: SPRING HOLLOW DR x[COOPERS POND] [MONTICELLO] - ROAD IS CLOSED USE ALTERNATE ROUTE - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

JEFFERSON COUNTY: US-27 (SR-20) x[US-19 (SR-57)] [CAPPS] - 3 TO 4 FOOT DEEP WATER ACROSS ROADWAY

JEFFERSON COUNTY: SR-30 x[HELLS HALF ACRE] [LAMONT] - TREE IN ROADWAY, COMPLETE ROAD BLOCK

Tropical Storm #Debby Still Stationary - June 25 2012

The timing and forecast track for Debby is still uncertain. Both GFS and ECMWF Models are coming into better agreement at this time in keeping Debby Stationary, or nearly so for the next day or so. [ See also: Sunday, June 24, 2012 - Tropical Storm #Debby - Track has changed considerably ]

At this time Debby remains Stalled / Stationary this morning and has been for some time now. Currently winds associated with Debby are 50mph sustained, down from our earlier report of 60mph. Debby is currently located about 90 miles south/southwest of Apalachicola Florida [ 28.6N 85.8W ], and minimum central pressure is 993mb.

This morning appears to be a lull with Debby. Later today Debby may undergo some regeneration associated with convection and may re-intensify. During this time winds with Debby will once again 'increase'. Due to the environment at hand, we can expect more severe weather in the form of thunderstorms and Tornadoes. 20 Tornadoes were reported yesterday, and 5 Saturday on the Florida Peninsula. Also compounding this will be 'flash flooding' and 'flooding' from heavy rains which will fall over the same areas associated with rainbands, and coastal flooding due to 'storm surge'.

At this time there is a 'Tropical Storm Warning' from the Mississippi / Alabama state line east through the Florida Big Bend and South to around Boca Grande and Charlotte Harbor.
A 'Tornado Watch' for Northern and Central Florida and adjacent Coastal Waters until 2:00 Pm EDT. This watch will likely be extend sometime later today.
A 'Flood Watch' for portions of Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia through Tuesday Morning and 'Flood Warnings' for various areas in Florida and Georgia.

You can find more information on Tropical Storm Debby on the Tropical Weather Page where Information and Graphics update automatically when changes are issued.

You can also find me on Twitter @cataulagawx .. and .. Facebook Cataula GA Weather. I share weather related information there as well.

Tropical Storm #Debby - Track has changed considerably - June 24 2012

It doesn't look as if Debby will be heading west as many thought earlier. Debby is now expected to impact areas of the Florida Panhandle to the Big Bend area. While Debby's track STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN, focus has now shifted to the coastal areas of the southeast. In my post on Thursday, June 21, 2012 Tropical Disturbance Gulf of Mexico, Possible Tropical Storm - June 23-26, I mentioned that Debby would likely impact areas of Florida. I preferred this area over a Texas landfall.

Areas along the Panhandle of Florida, the Big Bend area and south along the west Coast should remain EXTRA cautious due to the proximity of Debby and her uncertain forecast. The Forecast track of Debby remains Highly uncertain at this time and all residents along the coastal area are urged to remain aware of the situation.

Tropical Storm Warnings Continue for Areas from the Mississippi / Alabama State line EASTWARD to the Suwanne River in Florida.

Tropical Storm WATCHES have been extended SOUTHWARD along the WEST COAST of FLORIDA to ENGLEWOOD.

Tropical Storm Warnings for Louisiana have been discontinued at this time.
Tropical Storm Warnings from the Mouth of the Pearl River, West to Morgan City have been discontinued.


At this time Debby continues to move ever so slowly to the Northeast at 3 MPH. Sustained winds are Still around 60 MPH with higher gusts in and around the area. Tropical Storm Force winds Extend outwards up to 200 Miles from Debby, whose center is now located at 28.4N 85.8W, or about 205 Miles East Southeast of the Mississippi River, and /or 100 Miles South Southwest of the Apalachicola River.

Debby is not expected to move much in the next day or so. Debby will continue to bring heavy and copious amounts of rain to Florida, South Georgia and areas of South Alabama.
Many Gulf coastal areas of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana are under Flash Flood Watches and Flood Watches. Storm Surge may also become a hazard during this time.

Here is the latest possible track Debby will take as of 5 PM EDT June 24 2012.

You can find more information on Tropical Storm Debby on the Tropical Weather Page where Information and Graphics update automatically when changes are issued.

You can also find me on Twitter @cataulagawx .. and .. Facebook Cataula GA Weather. I share weather related information there as well.

I will be posting information concerning Tropical Storm Debby on Twitter and Facebook through the overnight Sunday and morning hours Monday.

Invest 96L in Gulf of Mexico more organized / Tropical Storm Chris still chugging along

70% Chance in Gulf now designated 'Invest 96L', but we'll still call her 'Chance'. Once named, she'll be called either Tropical Depression Debby or Tropical Storm Debby !

At this time we are giving this area a good probability of becoming a named storm within the next 24 hours. A low has been located near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with a central pressure of 1007 MB and surface pressure is falling across the broad area. The National Hurricane center is giving this area a 'HIGH' chance of further development, possibly becoming a Tropical Depression in the next day or so.

Uncertainty Remains ...

Models continue to disagree on the track of Chance. The more reliable tropical models indicate a potential landfall between Panama City and Tampa. Other models take Chance to Texas and North Mexico, while yet others stall her out in the central Gulf of Mexico. The SHIPS Model [Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme] late yesterday 6/21 showed a peak wind speed of 63 MPH, making this a strong Tropical Storm at Landfall.

I must remind you, This is not set in stone. Other factors including possible interaction with land in or around the Yucatan and a frontal passages moving through the area will also be factors in determining track and strength. ALL Areas along the Gulf Coast should remain alert at this time. Do you have a plan on what to do before, during, and after a tropical storm / hurricane ??

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What was Hurricane Chris earlier yesterday 6/21, maxed out with winds of 75 MPH and is now a Tropical Storm once again. Currently Chris has max winds of 65 MPH, is moving north at about 14 MPH, has a central pressure of 987 MB / 29.15 INCHES, and is about 540 Miles East/Southeast of of Cape Race Newfoundland. Chris surprised everyone including the NHC.