Hurricane #Sandy - State of Emergency for many

The following states / areas have issued a State of Emergency: Washington D.C., Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. If you know of others at this time, please let me know in the comments. Thanks ~ Ed

Sandy was downgraded to a Tropical Storm in the early morning hours [5 AM EDT] today. At 8 AM EDT today she was upgraded to a Hurricane once again.

Here's the latest on Sandy - Winds: 75 mph | Pressure 958 mb | Location: 29.0N 76.0W (190 miles North0Northeast of Great Abaco Island, 355 miles Southeast of Charleston South Carolina) | Moving NNE at 9 mph. Currently Tropical storm force winds extend out 450 miles and Hurricane winds out 105 miles from the center.

Turing our focus to areas that will be impacted in the short term by Sandy: For eastern North Carolina including the coastal areas we can expect Moderate coastal flooding tonight into Monday. Storm Surge combined with rainfall estimates at this time may cause inundation from 1 to 5 feet 'above ground' North of Cape Hatteras Ocean side, Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras Ocean side, North of Surf City to Cape Lookout. On the sound side 3 to 5 feet 'above ground' may be seen along the Southern Pamlico Sound and Lower Neuse 'Today and Sunday' and anywhere on the sound side of the Outer Banks 'Sunday into Monday' including Roanoke Island. There is some uncertainty in the exact areas that will see this but it remains possible across a large area.

Winds will also be strong and gusty 'tonight into Monday' along Coastal areas sustained at 35 to 45 mph with gusts 50 to 65 mph. Further inland winds will be 25 to 35 mph with gust 40 to 50 mph. Now is a great time to secure loose belongings that are outside if you haven't already done so. Rip currents will be dangerous with breaking waves 8 to 12 feet 'today' and will cause significant beach erosion. Please stay out of the ocean.

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 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information as this storm unfolds at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone . Time for sleep 1 pm edt

Severe Weather Potential Friday July 20 2012

The severe threat will primarily be damaging winds, along with frequent to continuous lightning heavy rainfall / downpours which may cause flooding and hail.

At this time 6:10 AM EDT 7/20/2012 the main feature with this system has entered North Alabama and Georgia moving in a south southeast direction. This Mesoscale Convective System is already responsible for a couple Special Weather Statements being issued at this early hour where the primary threat has been winds of 40 to 50 MPH and pea sized hail in North Alabama and Georgia.

This activity will continue for much of the day and may increase during daytime heating. The area affected is generally the same as yesterday that being, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, North and South Carolina and Tennessee during early morning. Whether or not the storms will intensify later depends greatly on how much the area destabilizes and the possible interaction with outflow boundaries being pushed south southeast ahead of the main complex.

Here's today's early morning outlook from the Storm Prediction Center highlighting the Slight Risk of Severe Storms area. The next scheduled update from The SPC is expected around 9 AM EDT. At that time I will also post an update if warranted. Click Image to Enlarge

Previous Post concerning this posted July 19 at 2:45 PM EDT - Severe Weather Potential Friday July 20 2012 - Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee

Georgia Drought Update - June 8 2012

Before I get to the current drought situation in Georgia and the southeast, I would first like to mention the possibility of some good rain heading in this coming week. Without going into great detail of the approaching system, areas in the Southeast may see some high accumulation rates beginning Today [6/8/2012] through Thursday of next week. Some of the higher rain totals predicted will occur along the Gulf coast, seeing possibly as much as 10 inches of rain.

Here's the 5 day outlook from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center [HPC] valid from 8 Pm Thursday thru 5 PM Tuesday evening June 15 2012. There is the potential some areas will have flooding issues through next week.

The NWS Peachtree City, GA mentions precipitation approaching 4 inches in areas of West Central Georgia. The NWS Huntsville, AL is in agreement mentioning 3 to 4 inches possible for northern Alabama areas.


Drought Impacts from Tropical Storm Beryl

In my last Drought update on May 25, 2012, I mentioned the possibility of a Tropical System of some type impacting the areas of Georgia and Florida. Other areas in the Southeast also saw welcomed rains from that system known as Tropical Storm Beryl.

from the Drought Monitor Archives-Contiguous U.S. MAy 29 2012 - Tropical Storm Beryl formed on May 25 about 300 miles east of Charleston, South Carolina, and moved southwestward. Beryl made landfall just after midnight on Memorial Day, May 28, near Jacksonville Beach, Florida, then passed near Valdosta, Georgia, before turning toward the north and northeast. Before accelerating away from the coastal Carolinas on May 30, Beryl provided much-needed rain to drought-affected areas from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain.

Here's a Radar estimated rainfall amount from Moody Air Force Base, GA. Radar Precip Est From 1105 AM EDT Sun May 27 2012 to 0242 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012

While the rain from Beryl did help the drought situation in areas of Southeast Georgia, North Florida, and other areas in South and North Carolina, it did little for North Central, Central and Southwest Georgia. Here's a graphic showing drought conditions in Georgia. On the left: Drought conditions on May 22 before Beryl. On the right: Current drought conditions as of June 5 2012 after Beryl.

Here's a graphic showing the Drought conditions in the Southeast for the same time period. Notice North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina. On the left: Drought conditions on May 22 before Beryl. On the right: Current drought conditions as of June 5 2012 after Beryl.

Here's a graphic showing Rain amounts for the last 14 days ending June 7. Notice the area along the east coast down through Florida, where impacts from Tropical Storms Beryl were seen the most.

Here's what drought conditions look like for the remainder of the U.S. at this time.

And finally, here's how much precipitation would be required to end drought conditions across the U.S. in 3 months. [NOTE: The end of a drought is defined by a PHDI value of -0.5.]

Georgia Drought Update - May 25 2012

Once again little change in Drought conditions in Georgia since my last drought report May 12 2012. There were areas in Georgia that saw some drought improvement, but without continued adequate rainfall, these areas will likely see drought conditions worsen as we move into the summer months.

Here's the current drought severity index for Georgia. Areas that saw improvement in the past 2 weeks - North GA, West Central GA, and Southeast GA.

Here's the current drought severity index for the southeast U.S, Areas in Upstate South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and Central to South Florida, saw some improvements due to Tropical Storm Alberto.

Speaking of Tropical systems ... Areas of south Georgia and north Florida my see some drought relief in the coming days. At this time [ 3:29 PM 5/25/2012 ] the National Hurricane Center is giving an area of low pressure in the Atlantic an 80 percent chance of developing into some type of tropical system. Maybe Tropical Storm Beryl ??

I wont bore you with the details, but here is a graphic from the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA from earlier today, showing possible impacts.

Also of interest form NWS PTC, this drought information statement released on May 24 2012...

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
115 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

...LONG TERM DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA...

THE SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER ALL OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A NEUTRAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SUMMER SEASON. THE DROUGHT IMPACTS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN AS VEGETATION DRAWS MORE
MOISTURE AND EVAPORATION RATES INCREASE. MOST SMALL LAKE...POND...STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TO SOME RECORD LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A FEW DAYS OF RAIN BROUGHT LITTLE RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OCCURRED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE PAST 14 DAYS. GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OCCURRED OVER MOST OF
NORTH GEORGIA DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

THE RAINFALL DEFICITS AND SOIL MOISTURE IMPROVED ONLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2 INCHES OR MORE DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREA. THE AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKLIN THROUGH ATLANTA AND LAWRENCEVILLE TO TOCCOA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT JUST EAST OF FRANKLIN TO NEWNAN TO GREENVILLE WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN OCCURRED.

Finally, here's the 'current' drought picture for the entire United States released on May 22 2012.

See also: The Drought Files. Covering drought in Georgia since 2007.

Storm Reports Across the Southeast April 5/6 2012 - Map

While the local area was spared from severe weather once again, other areas in the southeast weren't as lucky.

In Georgia Hail was reported in many areas. The largest being 1 inch. Wind damage was also reported, but no estimated speed was given in reports. Locally [ Columbus GA ] there was a report of Pea Size Hail and No wind damage that I'm aware of in the area.

In Alabama like most areas reporting severe weather in the Southeast, Hail was the most reported. The largest Hail reported in Alabama was 1.75 inches. There were a few wind reports in Alabama downing trees, with the strongest being estimated at 67 MPH. Alabama also had reports of flash flooding in the north and a couple reports of Lightning damage.

Other areas in the southeast reported severe weather as well. South Carolina, North Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas and Tennessee. All reported Hail and Wind, with a Funnel cloud reported in Louisiana and an unconfirmed report of a Tornado in the bootheel of Missouri and another Tornado being reported numerous times in Missouri as well.

Here's a map of storm reports April 5 12Am thru April 6 3AM. Most reports were on April 5 2012.

Here's another map showing Hail reports of 2 inches or larger and Winds 65KT [74.8 MPH] or stronger and Tornado reports April 5 2012.

You can see my posts leading up to this event :

Tuesday, April 3, 2012 - Georgia / Alabama Potential Severe Storms Weds/Thurs April 4/5 2012

Wednesday, April 4, 2012 - Alabama / Georgia Severe potential LOW Thurs/Fri April 5/6 2012

3:30 AM Thursday, April 5, 2012 - Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012

10:23 AM Thursday, April 5, 2012 - Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012 - Updated Graphics

Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012

Still expecting some thunderstorms to meet or exceed severe criteria.

As mentioned yesterday the greatest overall threats still remain Hail, gusty wind and frequent lightning with any of the stronger storms. I will now include a small risk of a Tornado or two somewhere in the southeast as mentioned on April 3rd.

While the overall categorical outlook remains unchanged form yesterday which included much of the southeast from The Gulf coast north through Central Louisiana, north into Missouri and then east to a small area in south Illinois, through the southern half of Kentucky and a small area in southwest Virginia, continuing east through North Carolina to the east coast, the Slight Risk of severe storms has shifted farther north and west.

The Slight risk area yesterday April 4th included Southeast Mississippi into South Alabama a portion of South Georgia and Much of Florida. It NOW covers ALL of Georgia and Alabama, much of Florida and South Carolina, Most of Central Mississippi north and south towards Alabama, Much of Tennessee and a small area in Southwest North Carolina.

I have reinserted a small Tornado threat for the southeast due to the fact the Storm Prediction Center has now included it in the updated graphics as of 2:00 AM EDT 4/5/2012. The areas mentioned above in the 'slight risk area' are also covered by this 2% tornado probability area.

As mentioned above, the greatest threats form any severe storms that may develop will come from Hail and Gusty winds. The areas mentioned above covered by the categorical outlook [in Green] are included in the risk areas for hail and wind.

The overall Hail risk is 5% with an area of 15% risk covering the 'slight risk areas' mentioned above [in yellow].

The overall Wind risk is 5% with an area of 15% risk covering the 'slight risk areas' mentioned above [in yellow].

Here are expected rain amounts April 5 through April 10..

To reiterate ... greatest threats will be Hail and Gusty winds from any strong thunderstorm that may develop and a small chance of a Tornado.


As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along there :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


P.S. : I see Tornado watches have been issued [at 1:55 AM EDT] for areas in Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi until 9 AM CDT. I expect this will be expanded or shifted east as the day goes on.

Southeast / Gulf coast - Strong storms possible Saturday March 31 2012

The biggest threat form any severe storms should they develop will be strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and hail.

Some possible strong to isolated severe storms today. Like yesterday, it depends on where you are. Noticed a feature late Thursday night as it came off the Texas coast. I thought, here we go and not even hurricane season yet. Looked real tropical the other day, now really more of an upper level disturbance. If it were a surface based low, we might be looking at some wild weather. Since, it is more of a meso convective system as it moved into the area and is now located in Mississippi. It will enhance showers to our south and central areas of Alabama and Georgia. We also have a trough moving down from the north which will affect areas in north Alabama and Georgia. We're stuck somewhat in the middle of these two features in central Alabama and Georgia, and they will provide us with some unsettled weather today.

Already seeing some showers and storms developing in central and south Alabama early this morning on radar [ 5:50 AM EDT 3/31/2012 ]. You can clearly see the MCV rotating along the gulf coast in Mississippi heading for the Mobile area in Alabama. Not seeing much progression to the north with this feature at this time. Expect it will slowly continue it's northeast movement and by this afternoon affect central and Southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

The storm prediction center has and area highlighted with a slight chance of severe storms today from central Alabama to the west in northern Louisiana, east Arkansas and southwest Tennessee.

It's possible later in the evening North and South Carolina will be affected by these storms.

Thunderstorms and Showers for the Southeast - Week of March 19 thru 24 2012

My thinking based on current material:

A slow moving cold front currently impacting areas of Texas north into Iowa will slowly move east through the week. Right now [ 11:12 AM EDT 3/19/2012 ] storms are beginning to fire along the front with the potential for severe weather including damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. Severe thunderstorm and tornado watches will likely be issued at some point this afternoon for areas in Texas and points north.

Current Map March 19

The low pressure responsible for this front will according to models become a closed upper level low. Until this happens it will continue to pull colder air from the north and warm air from the south, leading to an unstable air mass. Once the low closes off it will continue to draw warm moist air from the gulf of Mexico region. This warm moist air combined with daytime heating will then provide the opportunity for strong storms to continue developing over the next few days through Wednesday as the front ever so slowly moves east through Louisiana. There is the potential for some of these storms to become severe where damaging winds, hail and even a tornado can not be ruled out.

Wednesday March 21

By Thursday morning the cold front will be in or around Western Mississippi with the upper level low remaining back in Oklahoma. At this time there is still the potential for strong to severe storms but to a lesser degree from previous days. During daytime heating some of these storms will have the potential to turn severe where again damaging winds, hail and even a tornado can not be ruled out.

Thursday March 22

By Friday morning the cold front will be in or around western Alabama. The closed upper level low will by then have moved slightly east into the Missouri area. To the south in Alabama areas of showers with possible storms developing during daytime heating will be the rule. Some of the stronger storms may have the potential to become severe. As this is 4 days away it is unclear how the storm system will continue to evolve so we'll have to watch this.

Friday March 23

Farther to the north in areas of Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio things may be a little more interesting during this same time. While the cold from continues to trail from Indiana south through Alabama, a weak warm front will have continued to push north. Also of interest in an occluded front trailing back to the upper level low back in Missouri. This will create and area for potential strong to severe storms as the cold air overtakes the warm sector. Also of note in this area will be the different wind profiles or wind direction in which a quick spin up tornado cant be ruled out.

By Saturday morning the cold front will be pushing through Georgia, western areas of North and South Carolina continuing north through the Virginia's. The upper level low at this time will be positioned in or around Indiana or Ohio. By this time most of the energy will have been lost and things should be relatively quite from North Carolina southward. To the North in Virginia it may still be a little unsettled with strong thunderstorms still possible.

Saturday March 24

All of the above is provided things remain true to current modeling and thinking. I'll continue watching this system throughout the week and should things change will post an update.


Here's a look at the potential rainfall associated with this system beginning Today March 19 thru Saturday morning March 24.

Tracking Southeast Storms March 2/3 2012 - Latest Graphics

For the remainder of the night, Follow me on Twitter @CataulaGaWX and Facebook at Cataula Ga Weather.

Automatic posting of Watches and Warnings are posted at my other Twitter and Facebook accounts - Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 7:30 PM EST today, valid through Saturday morning.

Changes in these graphics from this evening at 3:41 PM EST HIGHLIGHTED HIGH RISK AREA for SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE..HAS BEEN REMOVED..Other changes in COVERAGE areas of the Moderate, and Slight risk are indicated. These coverage areas are likely to continue shifting EAST in future Updates.


Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms - Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms - Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms - Red Area, HIGH RISK area likely to see TORNADOES - Fuchsia Area.

Tornado Outlook: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. - 2% risk of a Tornado - Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado - Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado - Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado - Red Area. Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds - Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds - Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds - Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail - Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail - Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail - Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

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Just for show...

Tornado Outbreak / Widespread Severe Weather Friday and Saturday March 2-3 2012

Please folks, take this threat seriously. Since 12 AM this morning there has already been 118 total storm reports. 17 of those have been Tornado reports, 18 high wind reports of winds 74 MPH or higher [ Category 1 Hurricane winds 74 - 95 mph ] and 83 Large hail reports 2 inches and larger.

This may be my last BLOG post on this. I will be monitoring the situation in the SOUTHEAST and posting Updates on Twitter @CataulaGaWX and Facebook at Cataula Ga Weather.
Automatic posting of Watches and Warnings are posted at my other Twitter and Facebook accounts - Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 2:56 PM EST today, valid through Saturday morning.
Changes in these graphics from this morning at 12:42 AM EST now HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK AREA for SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE....Other changes in COVERAGE areas of the Moderate, and Slight risk are also indicated. These coverage areas are likely to shift EAST in future Updates.

Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms - Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms - Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms - Red Area, HIGH RISK area likely to see TORNADOES - Fuchsia Area.

Tornado Outlook: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. - 2% risk of a Tornado - Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado - Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado - Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado - Red Area. 30% risk of a Tornado - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds - Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds - Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds - Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail - Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail - Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail - Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Widespread Severe Weather Expected Friday and Saturday March 2-3 2012

First and foremost ... The main threat will be north of the local area, but the possibility remains for strong to severe storms.

As in all of my posts of this nature, this is not meant to alarm you, but to give you a heads up as to what may be heading to your area. I try real hard not to overstate a situation like this. On the same note, I will not downplay a severe risk either. If what I tell you fails to materialize, that's a good thing.

Okay, on with the show....

Around 11 PM last night after looking very quickly at data I became more concerned with what I saw from earlier. So much so I posted this on Facebook so my Columbus Georgia area followers would be aware of what may happen with the coming storms.

Listen up ... I am becoming more concerned for the local area after taking a quick peek at some data. While I still believe at this time it will not be as bad as areas to our north [that's a given], I do believe it will become quite active around here. I will be looking at more data in the hours to come and will have a blog update tomorrow moring. Always be weather alert even if a tornado threat isn't as high where you live !!

Some of my followers became alarmed and this was my reply.

I do believe as mentioned things may get active around here. What that will bring is anyone's guess. Down here the risks will not be a widespread as in areas to our north. There is still a chance of seeing isolated severe storms down here, and from what I looked at earlier that chance has increased from what I looked at even earlier. The timing looks like the most severe will come through in the AM hours of Saturday morning providing what I looked at holds together. Before this time stronger storms are possible. My concern is not meant to say Tornadoes will be a sure thing in the local area, only that the chances are now enhanced from my earlier thinking

I stand by my earlier thoughts.

Possibly verifying my thoughts is this from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning

GULF STATES...

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT APPEARS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE-WISE AS WIND SHIFT ENCOUNTERS MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF STATES. SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO FAVOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD CERTAINLY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS.

Possibly enhancing this is something I mentioned yesterday, a secondary low forming south of the main low. You can see this second low clearly in this graphic on the Texas / Oklahoma border.

[ Graphic from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - National Weather Service ]

Also of concern along with this is a 'Dry Line' tailing south from this second low as seen on this surface map issued this morning at 2:29 AM EST. This may also provide enhancement to the system allowing more warm moist air to feed in providing fuel.

This is very serious situation yet to unfold for many areas of the Ohio Valley down to the Gulf coast and East to the Carolinas.


Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning

Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms Red Area.

Tornado Outlook: 2% risk of a Tornado Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado Red Area. Red Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

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I'll be getting some sleep and will be back monitoring the situation around 4 PM EST today.

As usual when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Watching the Storm setup for Friday 3/2 and Saturday 3/3/2012

Wow .. what a wild couple of days we've already had, and it's not officially Spring yet !!

Here's a look at the Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings issued from February 29 at 12 AM thru March 1 2012 at 4 AM.

The reason I show you the above is because we have a similar setup beginning Friday into the weekend. My thinking at this time is, the area with the greatest coverage of Warned storms in the image above will likely shift south of where it was. To include Arkansas in the mid-west. In the south and southeast .. Tennessee, North Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia into South and North Carolina as the system progresses to the east. Hopefully like this last system, the deep south will be spared.

It's really difficult to tell at this time where and what this system will do. The main feature with this evolving system hasn't been on land out west long enough for models to really get a grasp on it. As you may have guessed, some models show it stronger while others don't. Some show it slower, while others faster. Some even hint at a secondary low forming south of the main low. All in all we're going to have to wait a bit longer to really know where it will go. One thing we do know regardless of where it goes, it will produce more severe weather. Just as models differ on timing and placement, Bufkit model data varies with strength. Some models show it being a low cape high shear event, while others have high cape and modest shear.

So ... as with other systems, we'll know more at a later time. For now, here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 1:52 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning This will change over the next day as the maps are reissued.

Categorical Outlook : Risk of Thunderstorms Green Area, Slight Risk of Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Severe Storms Red Area.

Probabilistic Outlook : Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

Here is one section of wording that caught my eye while reading the outlook that accompanied the graphics above :

NUMEROUS SVR WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR STG TORNADOES FROM EITHER SUPERCELLS OR QLCS-VORTEX MECHANISMS. AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

Thats quite impressive !!
Translation : Numerous SEVERE wind events are possible along with potential for STRONG tornadoes from either supercells or Quasi Linear Convective Systems mechanisms. At least a few wind events AT OR ABOVE 65 KT [ 75.95 MPH ] and long-track significant tornadoes are possible. - For simplicity, A Quasi Linear Convective Systems is a bow echo capable of producing straight line winds.

Some folks may also have to deal with flooding issues. Here's the 3 day rainfall prediction valid thru Sunday from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

I'll have an update on this later; so check back !