Monday 12/17/12 Update - Southeast Severe Weather

The possibility of severe storms still exist today for areas in the southeast. Currently [ 5:20 AM EST 12/17/2012 ] seeing some moderate to strong thunderstorms in Southeast Mississippi / Southwest Alabama ahead of the cold front generally heading East-Northeast while the Cold front pushes east.

Radar at 5:20 AM EST

The only thing at this time I see limiting stronger storms developing, some possibly severe, is instability and moisture available ahead of the front. This lack of instability will be on the increase. By early afternoon / mid day Georgia should see storms some of which 'will be severe' begin to fire off. As always, 'Not everyone will see severe weather. I don't think there is enough time this morning for severe storms to break out in south-central Alabama, but may see some later in East Alabama / West Georgia. At the least should see isolated thunderstorms in these areas as morning pushes on. All of this will eventually make it's way to South Carolina later today.

As mentioned the past few days the greatest threat will be 'Damaging winds' associated with the stronger storms. We'll have to keep an eye on things this afternoon onward for the potential for an isolated tornado as well as hail.

Here's the outlook for today issued by the SPC 'valid at 12z - 7 AM EST' this morning. [click image to embiggen]

I likely wont be posting further updates on this here. Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Southeast Severe Weather December 16 2012 - Outlook for severe 12-19 / 12-20-12

Rain / Storms still on track. As mentioned yesterday - "On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday." Main threat still continues to be Damaging winds with stronger storms should they develop. However, due to the setup a LOW threat of a tornado is still present. Not everyone will see severe weather or a tornado. [ Note: Another round of storms expected around Wednesday / Thursday - See below graphic ]

Here's what the SPC has outlined for today into Monday Morning at this time...

And Monday morning thru Tuesday Morning at this time...

Here's the areas being watched at this time [Sunday afternoon] for possible severe weather on Wednesday Day 4 and Thursday Day 5. At this time the setup is looking interesting and if models remain consistent severe storms should develop in or around these areas.

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Early look at 'Possible severe weather' for November 11-13 2012

This is a look ahead to November 11^th through the 13^th. As you know things in the weather world change on a dime. Should this verify we may see some strong to severe storms in the South & Southeast, Tennessee valley, Middle & Lower Mississippi valley back into the Central & Southern plains. We are entering our Second Severe Weather Season in these areas. I'll keep a watch on modeling in the coming days as we near these dates.

Surface to 500mb Bulk Shear in knots. Here it looks pretty impressive and could support severe weather possible Tornadoes. [denotes the change of wind direction with height a measure of vorticity]

Cross over winds in knots from Surface[red] to 500mb[blue] [winds form different direction that may cause spin]

Temperature at the surface during this possible event shows the contrast ahead of the system vs behind it. Notice the 70's and 80's ahead and the cooler 30' and 40' behind. This is the same setup we deal with in spring as warm and colder air clash.

While dew points are modest approaching the 60's it doesn't take high dew points this time of year to provide more energy for storms. [Dew point is the measure of moisture / fuel in the air so to speak]

Follow @Cataulagawx

Severe Weather Possible in Southeast Today and Tonight - October 17 2012

At this time the greatest threat will be Damaging winds, although a few Tornadoes can't be entirely ruled out as this system evolves. Large damaging hail may also be possible with stronger storms.

Severe weather is expected to develop later this evening and continue through the overnight for some areas in the deep south. Storms will begin late this afternoon in areas of Southern Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana continuing southeast into Northeast Louisiana and Northwest Mississippi this evening. By midnight the storms will be across Mississippi from Northeast to Southwest and beginning to move into Northwest Alabama. In the early morning hours weakening is expected as they continue to push through Alabama into Georgia. While weakening is expected they will still need to be watched.

Click Image to Enlarge

During the early evolution of this, storms should be more individual in the form of possible Supercells evolving later into a concentrated line of storms likely forming a squall line where damaging winds will be present. As always not everyone will experience severe storms but conditions will be favorable for them to develop at any time in and around the area. Make sure you continue to monitor this, and make sure your weather radio is in working order.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Twitter. You can follow along here @CataulaGaWX

Severe Storms Four Corners Region / Central & Southern Plains Today and Tomorrow Southern & Central Plains / Mid & Upper Mississippi Valley

Threats: Severe thunderstorms capable of Damaging winds along with hail some large enough to cause damage. A tornado or two can't be ruled out as storms intensify during daylight hours.

Today Friday 10/12 : A strong low pressure system currently centered in the area of Southern Nevada and Northwestern Arizona will continue to move in a east-northeast direction today. Severe storms 'already firing' in eastern Arizona this morning will continue while heading easterly and likely intensify as the day heats up. Also seeing some higher tops in eastern New Mexico Western Texas this morning on the outer periphery of the Low pressure circulation, these will likely continue to build through the day and possibly bring severe storms. A Tornado watch may be issued later today. Some weakening is likely during the overnight hours due to loss of daytime heating, but severe storms are still possible.

Tomorrow Saturday 10/13 : Storms look at this time to be more concentrated than those of Friday. As the Low pressure continues heading east-northeast, areas of the southern and central plains will likely see thunderstorms early Saturday morning which will continue to build through the day while heading for the Upper and lower Mississippi Valley. Later in the day they will likely bring with them severe storms capable of damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. As always not everyone will experience severe weather so stay aware of changing conditions. Monitor you local weather offices, television stations and weather radios. We'll have more on this later.

Below are graphics showing areas of concern and possible weather for today 'Friday 10/12/12' and tomorrow 'Saturday 10/13/12'.

Friday October 12 2012

Saturday October 13 2012

Severe Storms Impacting Alabama and Georgia Tuesday July 31 2012

Severe Storms are already impacting North Alabama at this hour 1:45 AM EDT 7/31/2012. Numerous Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued thus far.

Looking at radar trends the past few hours the overall coverage of the MCS [ Mesoscale Convective System ] storm complex early this morning is yet to fill in, it is still on track to better organize and bring more severe weather to areas in Alabama and Georgia through this morning and the afternoon hours. The greatest threat will be Damaging winds along with hail, heavy rains and copious amounts of lightning as reported via twitter.

The first round of severe weather is as stated currently impacting areas of North Alabama. I feel as though this area will continue to impact this area and to the south in Central Alabama through the early morning hours. I also feel that the activity entering Northern Georgia will intensify in the coming hours and possibly impact the Atlanta area between 6 and 8 AM this morning.

This complex of storms will continue to build and regenerate throughout the day rotating around the eastern fringe of high pressure located to the west. The storm will rotate in a clockwise manner basically training from North to south.

Here is a panel showing Simulated Radar beginning at 5 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012 and running through 5 PM EDT. At this time now 2 AM EDT the simulation has a fairly good handle on what is currently occurring. Click Images to Enlarge.

Here is a graphic showing what I think the movement of the storms will be through the morning and should also occur throughout the day, rotating in the clockwise manner mentioned above.

Here are the most recent graphics issued by the Storm Prediction Center this morning at 2 AM EDT.

Much of the southeast is covered by the 'Slight Risk' category for seeing Severe Storms.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Much of the Southeast has a 15% chance while an elevated risk of 30% exist for south Georgia, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. While hail has been reported early this morning, it remains a low risk of seeing any. Only 5% for the entire area.

######

See the lead up to this event posted Monday July 30 2012 at 5:40 AM EDT here - Georgia / Alabama Possible Severe Storms Tuesday July 31 2012

You can find me on Twitter and Facebook during severe weather events such as this where I post updates and any other time as well. Twitter - https://twitter.com/cataulagawx and Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Severe Weather Potential Friday July 20 2012 - Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee

This is just a heads up.

While areas in the south / southeast have experienced afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the past days, Friday possibly into Saturday seems to be heading for a more organized threat.

The severe threat will be damaging winds and hail, along with frequent to continuous lightning and heavy rain / downpours.

The timing will be dependent on the arrival of a cold front which is expected to move into the southern states sometime Friday. The arrival of the cold front is uncertain at this time 2:25 PM EDT 7/19/2012. Depending on the arrival time and how much the atmosphere can heat up during the day will be the determining factor on the strength of the potential severe storms.

Also compounding this setup is the coverage area where the more vigorous storms will be. This is also uncertain at this time. The area could expand south and east. This is something we'll have to watch.

We'll know more on this sometime tonight or at the latest tomorrow morning.

Storms on track,Mississippi,Alabama and Georgia June 4 2012

7:04 AM 6/4/2012


As mentioned yesterday Sunday, June 3, 2012, storms will be impacting the southeast today. Some areas saw severe storms yesterday, including Tornadoes.

At this time there is a Mesoscale Convective System ongoing in North Mississippi and Alabama. This MCS will continue moving south / southeast through the morning hours. This storm complex is generating severe storms producing damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH, hail to 1.5 inches, dangerous frequent lightning and heavy rain. The individual cells embedded within this complex are moving southeast at a rapid pace of between 45 and 70 MPH. There is also another one behind this one that may impact the same areas during the overnight and into Tuesday June 5.

The tornado threat remains low at this time, but 1 or 2 can not be entirely ruled out due to the nature of the storm system. The main threat will remain strong damaging winds and hail. Instability increases this afternoon where once aging severe weather is expected.

At this time the Storms Prediction Center has large areas in Alabama and Georgia highlighted in a 'slight risk' area. Meaning a better chance of seeing thunderstorms than not.

The SPC also has the same areas from the graphic above highlighted for strong winds and hail.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

There are no severe thunderstorm watches or Tornado watches in effect at this time. This is likely to change at some point this morning due to the evolving cluster of storms. There is a Mesoscale Discussion, which is basically outlining the possibility of some type of Weather Watch being issued. At 6:33 PM EDT, this probability is at 60%. The highlighted area in the graphic is the general area the watch will be issued for.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

See the lead up post on this event, posted on Sunday, June 3, 2012 at 10:49 AM : Severe Storms possible in Georgia and Alabama June 4/5 2012

Severe Storms possible in Georgia and Alabama June 4/5 2012

See updated post on this event here - 7:04 AM 6/4/2012 Storms on track,Mississippi,Alabama and Georgia June 4 2012

Threats: The main threat from this round of storms will be 'damaging winds', with some areas also having the potential for seeing some hail. The tornado threat is low at this time.

What: Mesoscale Convective System - The main area of storms that will be pushing through the area will be fairly organized in nature, with stronger storms embedded with the main complex. Storms may develop out ahead of the main system. This will be difficult to determine until the main complex has formed and begins to move through the area.

When: Timing is another factor difficult to determine with a system such as this. At this time, For areas in north Alabama and Georgia, it looks like it will start to become active in the early morning hours on Monday, as early as 5 AM.
Depending on forward motion/speed, Central Alabama and Georgia may begin to see activity around 8 AM peaking in the afternoon and early evening hours. During daytime heating the storms may intensify.
The storms will continue pushing south/southeast through the day and into the overnight hours Monday reaching the southern areas sometime early Tuesday morning.

As with all systems of this nature, not everyone will experience severe weather.

At this time the storm prediction center has the Northern and Central areas of Alabama and Georgia mentioned above highlighted in a 'Slight Risk' for Monday and shifts the 'Slight risk' area to the south for Tuesday. I will continue to monitor the situation for possible upgrade to a 'moderate risk' for these areas depending on storm evolution.

Here's a composite showing the Monday and Tuesday 'slight risk' areas.

As usual when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Storm reports on May 31 2012 in Alabama and Georgia

But first ...

While the weather did not become as active as I had anticipated, there were still storm damage reports. As I mentioned in my previous post, I did expect some storms to fire up in Alabama, and they did. As they moved east towards the local area in Georgia, the atmosphere became more stable, limiting their strength. I also mentioned this may be a possibility in my previous post. However, once the shortwave that was responsible for thee storms moved through the area, they regenerated somewhat and did bring more storms to Georgia.

Today I still expect some storms, possibly severe, to pop up in Georgia as the cold front pushes through. I do believe the eastern areas of the state will see the best chance of seeing severe storms, but I wouldn't completely rule one out state wide. The weather is like a women, you never know what shes capable of. [No offense to the ladies out there :)]

While there were no reported Tornadoes in Alabama or Georgia, or tornado warnings issued, there were a couple tornado warnings to our west in Mississippi. SO far no confirmation on if these tornado warned storms produced tornadoes or not.

Here's a graphic showing the storms reports on May 31 2012. The report generated was from 12:00 AM Thursday May 31 thru Friday morning June 1 2012 12:30 AM.

Here's the text of the storm reports in Alabama and Georgia.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
909 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

0413 PM  TSTM WND GST  2 NW MONTGOMERY  32.38N 86.31W
05/31/2012  M58 MPH  MONTGOMERY AL  BROADCAST MEDIA
ON RSA CAMERA IN DOWNTOWN MONTGOMERY.

0418 PM  TSTM WND DMG  MONTGOMERY  32.35N 86.28W
05/31/2012 MONTGOMERY AL   BROADCAST MEDIA
TREES REPORTED DOWN IN MULTIPLE NEIGHBORHOODS ACROSS MONTGOMERY.

0630 PM  TSTM WND DMG  6 SSE YORK  32.42N 88.27W
05/31/2012  SUMTER AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

+++++

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1125 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

0508 PM  TSTM WND DMG  1 SE LOUISVILLE  32.99N 82.40W
05/31/2012  JEFFERSON GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES ALONG MOORE STREET.

0510 PM  TSTM WND DMG  LOUISVILLE  33.00N 82.41W
05/31/2012 JEFFERSON GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN BLOCKING U.S. HWY 1.

0517 PM   HAIL  ELLIJAY  34.69N 84.48W
05/31/2012  E0.75 INCH  GILMER GA   EMERGENCY MNGR
EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL ON ZEBLIN ROAD.

0750 PM  TSTM WND DMG  THOMASTON  32.89N 84.33W
05/31/2012  UPSON GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTS 5 TREES DOWN IN THE THOMASTON AREA.

0800 PM  TSTM WND DMG  MOLENA  33.01N 84.50W
05/31/2012  PIKE GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTS 2 TREES DOWN IN THE MOLENA AREA.

0815 PM  TSTM WND DMG  6 W ZEBULON  33.09N 84.44W
05/31/2012  PIKE GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTS 1 TREE DOWN IN CONCORD.

0828 PM  TSTM WND DMG  EATONTON  33.33N 83.39W
05/31/2012  PUTNAM GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED SEVERAL TREES AND A FEW POWER LINES DOWN IN 
THE CITY OF EATONTON.

0903 PM  TSTM WND DMG  3 W SHOULDERBONE  33.34N 83.13W
05/31/2012  HANCOCK GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN NEAR THE PUTNAM-HANCOCK COUNTY LINE.

0918 PM  TSTM WND DMG  ETHRIDGE   33.16N 83.44W
05/31/2012  JONES GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN IN THE ETHRIDGE AREA.

0923 PM  TSTM WND DMG  WHITE PLAINS  33.47N 83.04W
05/31/2012  GREENE  GA   911 CALL CENTER
911 CENTER REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN IN THE WHITE PLAINS AREA.

Strong to Severe Storms Georgia / Alabama - 5/31-6/1 2012

Friday looks to be an active day for weather. We might even see some strong storms Thursday night in Alabama before the storms arrive in Georgia sometime Friday.

At this time the greatest threats with the strong to severe storms will be Hail from pea size up to quarter size, Strong Damaging winds to 50+ MPH, Heavy rains and frequent lightning. I will also add that there is a small chance of a Tornado due to variables with the approaching system and individual storm cells should they develop.

While the threat of a tornado is small, it can not be entirely ruled out. The reason for this is due to what may happen with the stronger storms [ See Link - Confirmed Tornado Lee County Alabama on May 13 2012 ]. While the best energy for Tornadoes will be to our north in Georgia and farther north, strong storms which will be coming through will be capable of spinning up quick small short lived tornadoes. I wont rule out a small tornado Thursday or Friday at some point and time in Alabama or Georgia.

At this time, it looks like Thunderstorms will increase Thursday Night, and there is the possibility some of them could be severe. Early Friday morning in the early AM hours there may still be some active storms around. Not as active as with day time heating, but still some could be strong.

On Friday as the day heats up, storms should get a little stronger by mid afternoon and continue into the night. The exact timing is not set in stone. Other factors will also be in play that may help storms begin earlier or later, be weaker or stronger, such as cloud cover and or atmosphere stabilization / destabilization from the earlier storms to our west.

Just a reminder ... Not everyone will see a severe storm. Not everyone will experience hail and high winds. Not everyone will see a Tornado. No one knows to pin point accuracy when and where any of this may happen during the event.

I'll have another update later.

Well, that was interesting..storms on May 13 2012..Only Human

A dry slot worked into the area allowing sunshine to peek out, heat up, and destabilize the area.

On Sunday May 13 2012 I was lazing around, just taking it easy. I wasn't expecting any strong storms after looking at computer models / data in the early morning hours. Scratch that, I was expecting some, possibly severe, but that was for the overnight hours of Saturday May 12 into the early morning hours of Sunday May 13. Not Sunday afternoon and evening !!!

In case you couldn't read the above, this is the pertinent part, myself talking about storm potential on Saturday May 12 at 2:44 PM EDT:

As far as anything bad .... Later tonight there appears to be a chance of some stronger storms, judging by wind profiles. The problem with this is, it is hard to pin down an exact area as this will be Isolated events, not widespread. Hopefully the band of rain that came through this morning and the one headed our way in the next hour will keep the local area more stable later, due to limited heating from cloud cover.

After the storms failed to materialize Saturday night, early Sunday morning, I figured the atmosphere was stable and would remain so as clouds and rain were in the forecast. I feel kinda bad that I didn't look at models / data Sunday morning sometime and pick up on this. I kinda feel a little better knowing even the Pro's missed it as well, locally and government. Well sorta with the gov as the Storm Prediction Center did mention a Tornado or two in their update at 0748 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012, but not earlier.

As a matter of fact, this is what the SPC said Earlier at 1211 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012, which was the last I looked at from them.:

FL PANHANDLE INTO ERN TN...

UPPER VORT MAX IS SHEARING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS AL INTO NRN GA BY 18Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE A LONGER WAVE TROUGH WILL LAG ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS AHEAD OF UPPER VORT SHOULD LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE MORE THAN A 5% RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

This is from one of the local TV stations weather Facebook page, posted Sunday May 13 2012 at 12:59 PM EDT ..

As we talked about yesterday we would see "Periods" of rain on our Sunday. It may be dry where you live right now, but another round is moving through right now.

This is from the other local TV station Facebook page, posted May 13 2012 at 7:19 AM EDT ..

interactive weather clearly shows rainfall tapering off west to east. We still will see afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Nothing severe, this is the good news. The primary threat will be the advancing front, with the surface low later this afternoon and tonight. A few of these storms will likely produce strong winds.

For the most part the local area did NOT see any severe weather, but it was all around us. As close as Lee, Chambers and Tallapoosa counties in Alabama just across the Chattahoochee river, Tornado Warning. It is considered the local area. We also had a Flash Flood Warning issued that lasted about 4 hours for Muscogee and Harris counties, due to heavy heavy rain. I live in Harris county.

Here's a graphic showing the warnings on Sunday:

OK, enough of this .. we all make mistakes .. on with the show. Here's some pics of storms in the area.

This is from Brandon Thomas down in Barbour county Alabama. He decided to go chase the storms moving through his area. Here is his description; "Brief funnel as the wall cloud began emerging over the lake. — in Eufaula, Alabama."

And another form Brandon, description - "Wall cloud over the lake with RFD cut to the left. — in Eufaula, Alabama."

One more from Brandon - "Slowly rotating wall cloud with inflow tail forming.
— in Eufaula, Alabama."

This one is from Cody Nickel, a student at Mississippi State University majoring in Meteorology, while home on break. He was looking west toward Alabama from an upper floor window at the medical center in downtown Columbus Georgia.

Here's one showing street flooding in Columbus from Belinda Brewer. We had copious amounts of rain. Here at the homestead I recorded 2.83 inches on Sunday.

Storm Reports Across the Southeast April 5/6 2012 - Map

While the local area was spared from severe weather once again, other areas in the southeast weren't as lucky.

In Georgia Hail was reported in many areas. The largest being 1 inch. Wind damage was also reported, but no estimated speed was given in reports. Locally [ Columbus GA ] there was a report of Pea Size Hail and No wind damage that I'm aware of in the area.

In Alabama like most areas reporting severe weather in the Southeast, Hail was the most reported. The largest Hail reported in Alabama was 1.75 inches. There were a few wind reports in Alabama downing trees, with the strongest being estimated at 67 MPH. Alabama also had reports of flash flooding in the north and a couple reports of Lightning damage.

Other areas in the southeast reported severe weather as well. South Carolina, North Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas and Tennessee. All reported Hail and Wind, with a Funnel cloud reported in Louisiana and an unconfirmed report of a Tornado in the bootheel of Missouri and another Tornado being reported numerous times in Missouri as well.

Here's a map of storm reports April 5 12Am thru April 6 3AM. Most reports were on April 5 2012.

Here's another map showing Hail reports of 2 inches or larger and Winds 65KT [74.8 MPH] or stronger and Tornado reports April 5 2012.

You can see my posts leading up to this event :

Tuesday, April 3, 2012 - Georgia / Alabama Potential Severe Storms Weds/Thurs April 4/5 2012

Wednesday, April 4, 2012 - Alabama / Georgia Severe potential LOW Thurs/Fri April 5/6 2012

3:30 AM Thursday, April 5, 2012 - Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012

10:23 AM Thursday, April 5, 2012 - Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012 - Updated Graphics

Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012 - Updated Graphics

Greatest overall threat remains Damaging Large Hail and Strong Damaging Wind for much of the Southeast.

The Storm Prediction Center has updated their graphics. The updates include adding a portion of Mississippi to the Slight Risk area, and a small portion of Central Florida in a 5% Tornado risk area. Most of the Southeast continues to be in the slight risk area of severe thunderstorms and the 2% risk area of seeing a tornado.

The biggest changes from earlier this morning are the Wind and Hail risk areas which were at 15%.

SPC 9 AM EDT Day 1 Outlook increases Damaging Wind Prob to 30% All of Georgia, Much of Alabama and Florida panhandle.
SPC 9 AM EDT Day 1 Outlook increases Large Hail Prob to 30% for Areas in North/Central Georgia, Alabama , NE Mississippi. and SE Tennessee.

You can see the previous outlook on the blog here

Updated Graphics via the Storm Prediction Center

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along there :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012

Still expecting some thunderstorms to meet or exceed severe criteria.

As mentioned yesterday the greatest overall threats still remain Hail, gusty wind and frequent lightning with any of the stronger storms. I will now include a small risk of a Tornado or two somewhere in the southeast as mentioned on April 3rd.

While the overall categorical outlook remains unchanged form yesterday which included much of the southeast from The Gulf coast north through Central Louisiana, north into Missouri and then east to a small area in south Illinois, through the southern half of Kentucky and a small area in southwest Virginia, continuing east through North Carolina to the east coast, the Slight Risk of severe storms has shifted farther north and west.

The Slight risk area yesterday April 4th included Southeast Mississippi into South Alabama a portion of South Georgia and Much of Florida. It NOW covers ALL of Georgia and Alabama, much of Florida and South Carolina, Most of Central Mississippi north and south towards Alabama, Much of Tennessee and a small area in Southwest North Carolina.

I have reinserted a small Tornado threat for the southeast due to the fact the Storm Prediction Center has now included it in the updated graphics as of 2:00 AM EDT 4/5/2012. The areas mentioned above in the 'slight risk area' are also covered by this 2% tornado probability area.

As mentioned above, the greatest threats form any severe storms that may develop will come from Hail and Gusty winds. The areas mentioned above covered by the categorical outlook [in Green] are included in the risk areas for hail and wind.

The overall Hail risk is 5% with an area of 15% risk covering the 'slight risk areas' mentioned above [in yellow].

The overall Wind risk is 5% with an area of 15% risk covering the 'slight risk areas' mentioned above [in yellow].

Here are expected rain amounts April 5 through April 10..

To reiterate ... greatest threats will be Hail and Gusty winds from any strong thunderstorm that may develop and a small chance of a Tornado.


As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along there :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


P.S. : I see Tornado watches have been issued [at 1:55 AM EDT] for areas in Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi until 9 AM CDT. I expect this will be expanded or shifted east as the day goes on.

Alabama / Georgia Severe potential LOW Thurs/Fri April 5/6 2012

Not expecting any widespread severe weather in the local Columbus GA / Phenix City Al area. Showers and thunderstorms will be the rule, with some of them isolated in nature possibly approaching severe criteria. No one can pinpoint if this will happen or where should it. Still main threats will be Strong gusty winds, hail and frequent lightning.

Appears at this time the stronger storms will be at or near approaching frontal passage in the local area around 7 AM EDT Thursday morning. Per soundings this is the most unstable time. After that time period, should see mainly thunderstorms and or showers. Some redevelopment later in the afternoon is questionable due to cloud cover and previous rain as mentioned yesterday. Approaching the 7 PM EDT time frame CAPE rises to a modest 873 J/kg supportive of thunderstorms/showers but limited severe potential.

Farther to our south along the gulf coast in Florida the potential for severe storms is greater through the overnight hours Thursday into Friday morning. During most of this event Thursday, Bulk Shear remains at or below 40kts, increasing late Thursday night into Friday morning close to 50kts.

All in all, I expect nothing more than thunderstorms/showers with the possibility some of them being severe. When and where I do not know.

Here are the latest graphics form the Storm Prediction Center Valid 8 AM Thursday Morning thru 8 AM Friday Morning...

Southeast Mississippi into South Alabama a portion of South Georgia and Much of Florida is included in the Slight Risk area for strong thunderstorms.

Percentage wise, the above mentioned areas are in a 15% Risk area of seeing Severe storms.

Here's the Significant Tornado Parameter for 11 PM Thursday night. This graphic depicts the greatest potential for tornadoes during the entire event. Notice as mentioned above; "along the gulf coast the potential for severe storms is greater through the overnight hours Thursday into Friday morning." ... Graphic courtesy of Earl Barker @ wxcaster.com

Wet and Stormy Southeast Friday and Saturday March 23-24 2012

Showers & Storms around Today Thursday ...

[ Radar removed, no longer relevant ]

Based on what I see at this time [2:23 PM EDT 3/22/2012] this is looking more and more like a rain event for the area. Looking at the possibility of 1 inch maybe a little more at this time in the local area. There will be thunderstorms around in the afternoon hours Friday through Saturday morning as the front closes in and moves through the area. The biggest threat at this time appears to be gusty winds with any of the stronger storms that may develop, and the possibility of small hail.

If anything were to become severe in the local area, my thinking is it will be Friday early evening around or after 4 PM EDT during the warmest part of the day. This is not to say that embedded strong storms that may develop within the approaching line of convection before or after this time might go severe. However my thinking is this is not likely to happen given the time frame the front will be pushing through the area.
Enforcing my thinking are marginal at best instabilities. The highest CAPE at the time mentioned above is 709 j/kg, Shear approaching 30kts and Helicity at 74.

Most if not all severe potential should remain south of the Columbus Phenix City Area. To the West and East of the Columbus and Phenix City, severe storms should also remain below this line in Alabama and Georgia based on current analysis. AGAIN, This is not to say that any strong embedded storm that may develop within the approaching line of convection could go severe.

Here's the outlook for Friday 8 AM thru Saturday 8 AM

The local area is on the fringe of the Slight Risk area.

This one shows the local area in a 5% area of seeing severe storms

In the above graphics we do not see the progression of the system through the overnight hours. That being said, during the overnight early morning hours Saturday, the local area will likely be included in the slight risk area and the 15% area of seeing severe storms. However during the overnight hours the threat should remain LOW.


Here's the outlook for Saturday 8 AM thru Sunday 8 AM

The local area is on the fringe of the Slight Risk area.

This one shows the local area in a 5% area of seeing severe storms

Images provided by the Strom Prediction Center