Severe weather still on track for Georgia and Alabama Wednesday JAN 30 #gawx #alwx

This was written for my local area and posted on my Facebook page Cataula Georgia Weather. The local area is Columbus and Fort Benning Georgia and Phenix City Alabama. You can use this information for areas anywhere in East Alabama and West Georgia as the system coming through will cover a large area. On with the show....

The exact time is still in question depending on which model you go by and I will continue to look at them for agreement. Still looking like instabilities will increase sometime after 8:00 AM EST Wednesday morning. Regardless of timing, before the main area comes through we may see some thunderstorms in the area some which could be severe with damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

The winds will be gusty during this time 20 to 25 mph and will increase as the expected line of stronger storms gets closer and moves through the area to about 40 mph. Gusty winds like this can cause damage without being associated with severe storms. Stronger winds are likely in any severe storm. I'll also keep a watch for any discrete / individual storm cells developing out in front of the main line. These may become strong enough to bring severe weather to the area before the main line. These type of individual storm cells may also be capable of spawning tornadoes. The greatest threat at this time remains unchanged from my previous posts .. Strong to severe 'damaging winds' are likely and the possibility of a tornado or two. As always, 'not everyone will see severe storms and or tornadoes'.

I'll be looking at this closely over the coming hours for any changes that may increase the severity of the storms. Right now I do have one concern. As the trough approaches that will be bring the storms to the area, it looks to go from a positive tilt to a neutral tilt. This will increase the wind speeds / shear in both the upper and lower levels. At this time the winds are more than adequate for a damaging wind event and a couple tornadoes. Any increase would make this a larger threat. If the trough should go negatively tilted, the wind and shear would again increase even more. This is something that will need to be monitored and I will be doing just that. I'll have another update Wednesday Morning or sooner is needed. ~ ED

As always, find me on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather and Twitter before and when the storms strike. I'm there all the time and don't always have time to update the blog here ;) Follow @Cataulagawx

Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast - December 25 2012

Regardless of strength and track of the developing low, at a minimum this will be a 'damaging wind event'. On the extreme side it looks like there will be more than a couple tornadoes to deal with mainly in Central and Southern areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and possibly extreme Northern Florida.

If you've followed me long enough you know I won't / don't sugar coat what I see. I want you to enjoy your Christmas but I want you to be aware of the storms that will develop during the day Tuesday in Mississippi and Alabama continuing east through the afternoon into the early morning hours on Wednesday in Georgia. I will remind you that not everyone will experience severe weather and/or tornadoes.

Without getting into technical details [ weather speak ] here's the latest outlook from various National Weather Service office's around the southeast. Click image to enlarge.

Here's the outlook form the Storm Prediction Center on 12/23/12 AM. This outlook will be updated on Monday and Tuesday Morning and throughout the day Tuesday December 25 2012.

I'll be keeping an eye on this for further developments.


Technical details [ weather speak ]- 12z NAM and 12z GFS Severe parameters look strong for Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Northern Florida and a tad weaker [Lifted index and Cape] in East Georgia, still looks more than adequate for severe storms at this time.

Looking at latest data from the 12z NAM and 12z GFS, it appears the system has slowed somewhat. Nonetheless Wind Shear is still quite strong with a Jet Streak of 80+ knots on the 12z NAM and 90 knots on the 12z GFS in the areas mentioned above.

The lifted index on both models is -1 to -3 and approaching -5 on the NAM Late Wednesday night. Cape on the NAM is in the 1500 to 1750 Jkg Tuesday evening and around 750 on the GFS during the same time frame. I suspect a feedback issue here.

I expect backing winds will increase the threat of Tornadoes as time goes on. Also depending on cloud cover and rain or lack thereof ahead of the system the overall strength will increase due to heating allowed. Dewpoints will be in the high 50's to mid 60's and approaching the 70's along the gulf coast adding instability and will be transported north.

Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx


If you're local to the Columbus GA, Ft Benning GA, Phenix City Al area, you can also follow my posts on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Posted 1:20 PM EST 12/23/2012

Another round of Southeast Severe Weather for Wednesday / Thursday 12/19-12/20/2012

Moisture already beginning to be pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of this next system. This system is more potent that the one we saw earlier this week move across the south. It also looks to be faster.

Louisiana and Mississippi

Impacts will be felt in Louisiana beginning Wednesday Night moving quickly into Mississippi by Thursday morning. The greatest threat will be damaging winds of 60 mph plus that will accompany a squall line that is expected to develop. Due to strong wind shear and forcing to the surface, it is likely a few tornadoes will spin up quickly. These types of quick spin ups are hard to detect on radar and usually occur without Tornado Warnings being issued.

Outlook for Wednesday December 19 2012

Alabama and Georgia

It all comes down to timing as to what will happen in Alabama and Georgia. If it comes in later than anticipated I expect a more robust system with more widespread thunderstorms some that will turn severe. If it comes in earlier than anticipated I expect some thundershowers and a few thunderstorms. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE SEVERE WEATHER. Just as the storm system Yesterday, It didn't get bad until it was to our south and east.

At this time I expect the main line of stronger storms should they develop to enter the east Alabama area between 12 and 2 PM CST [Thursday] and West Georgia shortly after. This timing is subject to change in the next day or so. We'll just have to keep an eye on this and see what happens. Right now our area is highlighted just as it was yesterday for a 'slight risk' of stronger thunderstorms.

Outlook for Thursday December 20 2012

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Monday 12/17/12 Update - Southeast Severe Weather

The possibility of severe storms still exist today for areas in the southeast. Currently [ 5:20 AM EST 12/17/2012 ] seeing some moderate to strong thunderstorms in Southeast Mississippi / Southwest Alabama ahead of the cold front generally heading East-Northeast while the Cold front pushes east.

Radar at 5:20 AM EST

The only thing at this time I see limiting stronger storms developing, some possibly severe, is instability and moisture available ahead of the front. This lack of instability will be on the increase. By early afternoon / mid day Georgia should see storms some of which 'will be severe' begin to fire off. As always, 'Not everyone will see severe weather. I don't think there is enough time this morning for severe storms to break out in south-central Alabama, but may see some later in East Alabama / West Georgia. At the least should see isolated thunderstorms in these areas as morning pushes on. All of this will eventually make it's way to South Carolina later today.

As mentioned the past few days the greatest threat will be 'Damaging winds' associated with the stronger storms. We'll have to keep an eye on things this afternoon onward for the potential for an isolated tornado as well as hail.

Here's the outlook for today issued by the SPC 'valid at 12z - 7 AM EST' this morning. [click image to embiggen]

I likely wont be posting further updates on this here. Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Southeast Severe Weather December 16 2012 - Outlook for severe 12-19 / 12-20-12

Rain / Storms still on track. As mentioned yesterday - "On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday." Main threat still continues to be Damaging winds with stronger storms should they develop. However, due to the setup a LOW threat of a tornado is still present. Not everyone will see severe weather or a tornado. [ Note: Another round of storms expected around Wednesday / Thursday - See below graphic ]

Here's what the SPC has outlined for today into Monday Morning at this time...

And Monday morning thru Tuesday Morning at this time...

Here's the areas being watched at this time [Sunday afternoon] for possible severe weather on Wednesday Day 4 and Thursday Day 5. At this time the setup is looking interesting and if models remain consistent severe storms should develop in or around these areas.

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Possibility of Southeast Severe Weather Saturday thru Monday - December 15 2012

It seems our Second Severe Season has arrived albeit a bit late. Normally the fall severe weather begins in Mid to late November in the southeast. November this year was quite with the exception of a potential severe weather event in the southeast that never materialized during the Nov. 11^th thru 13^th time frame. If you were around this past week you may recall the Storms and Tornadoes in the Southeast on December 10 2012. on with the show ...

This coming bout of potential Severe weather will begin Late Saturday in the ARK-LA-MISS area shifting east with time into Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida. There remains uncertainty with the system as to timing and how strong storms may become due to how strong the upper level low pressure expected to develop in the northern tiers of this region becomes. The stronger the ULL, the more moisture it will pull north from the Gulf of Mexico into an already somewhat unstable air mass closer to the coast and extending northward. Regardless, am expecting some strong storms with isolated severe at this time throughout the region beginning today thru Monday again spreading west to east. Right now [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] confidence is somewhat LOW to the severe side based on how much cloud cover and rain occurs ahead of the frontal system in the warm sector.

Threats with this system will be in the form of Isolated strong to severe storms with the potential for a few Tornadoes with stronger storms possible. While the threat of tornadoes looks low at this time, a couple can't be entirely ruled out due to increasing shear layer to layer which may became surface based over time supporting Bowing Line areas capable of Damaging Straight Line winds and Isolated Supercells which may spawn a Tornado. There is also a threat of Flash Flooding in areas with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. As always .. not everyone will experience severe storms.

Today through Tomorrow morning the main threat will be the possibility of Damaging winds associated with strong thunderstorms that may develop generally in the afternoon and evening hours continuing through the overnight. ... On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday. On Sunday the Storm Prediction Center at this time [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] has an area highlighted for an elevated risk for strong to severe storms. We'll see how this area looks later today for possible increase in severity or even a decrease. For now here is what they have for Sunday Morning through Monday Morning. [click image to embiggen]

Here's the anticipated Rain Amounts Today through Tuesday Morning

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Update - Southeast Severe Weather Outlook - 8 AM EST 12/10/12

Severe storms began to fire up in Alabama and Mississippi around 5 AM EST and continue in Mississippi at this time 8:24 AM EST 12/10/2012.

The outlook for the late morning, early afternoon remains about the same as my earlier report. The main threat is strong damaging winds associated with the line of showers and storms ahead of the cold front currently in Mississippi. A 'tornado or two can't be ruled out later as numerous Tornado warnings have been issued today. The severe storms at this time are in South central Mississippi and South east Louisiana.

Throughout the remainder of the day this line of storms 'should weaken' as it pushes east into central and south Alabama and continues into Central and south Georgia. As stated, it 'should weaken' but bears keeping an eye on as it won't take much heating for instability to increase later and combined with adequate wind shear strong storms may develop once again. While my thinking is it will weaken and severe storms will be limited, a few isolated strong storms are possible given the moist unstable environment.

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Possible Severe Storms Monday December 10 2012

Good morning, Here's the weather outlook for Alabama and Georgia today.

Rain will be moving in today with Thunderstorms in the afternoon through the evening. There is still the possibility some of the storms could be severe. Not everyone will see severe weather. There is also a slim chance one of these strong storms could spin up a brief tornado, but the chances of that are very LOW. This is due to adequate wind shear in the upper levels. Outside of a possible tornado, the biggest threat at this time will be damaging winds with stronger thunderstorms. Not everyone will see this.

Check the Radar Page for current scans.

Rain could also be heavy at times, but I'm not anticipating a drought buster by any means. Rainfall amounts should be under a half inch. Cooler air moves in during and behind the rain with highs in the 50's to about Thursday, then a slight warm up before the next system arrives this coming weekend.

The next outlook from the Storm Prediction Center will be released this morning at 8 AM EST. I'll try and update you sometime this afternoon. ~ Ed Quinn

#Tornado in Algarve, #Portugal - video

While the weather is quite in the states, a tornado ripped through Algarve, Portugal. This person filming got lucky that no debris came through their window. I would suggest you not stand at a window with a tornado coming at you. This could have been the last thing they saw. Enjoy!



You can see more videos and pictures of this here - http://www.onweer-online.nl/forum/topic/36577/tornado-treft-algarve-in-portugal-tornado-strikes-/

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Early look at 'Possible severe weather' for November 11-13 2012

This is a look ahead to November 11^th through the 13^th. As you know things in the weather world change on a dime. Should this verify we may see some strong to severe storms in the South & Southeast, Tennessee valley, Middle & Lower Mississippi valley back into the Central & Southern plains. We are entering our Second Severe Weather Season in these areas. I'll keep a watch on modeling in the coming days as we near these dates.

Surface to 500mb Bulk Shear in knots. Here it looks pretty impressive and could support severe weather possible Tornadoes. [denotes the change of wind direction with height a measure of vorticity]

Cross over winds in knots from Surface[red] to 500mb[blue] [winds form different direction that may cause spin]

Temperature at the surface during this possible event shows the contrast ahead of the system vs behind it. Notice the 70's and 80's ahead and the cooler 30' and 40' behind. This is the same setup we deal with in spring as warm and colder air clash.

While dew points are modest approaching the 60's it doesn't take high dew points this time of year to provide more energy for storms. [Dew point is the measure of moisture / fuel in the air so to speak]

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Hurricane #Sandy Landfall 5:00 to 7:00 PM EDT | Update 2:00 PM EDT 10/29/12

At 940mb, Sandy is now the strongest hurricane recorded north of North Carolina!

Time of the center making landfall likely 5:00 to 7:00 PM EDT.
Per a tweet at 1:01 PM EDT Today from Dr. Greg Forbes @DrGregForbes from the weather Channel: "Sandy is speeding up, moving northwest at 25-30 mph. It could make landfall south NJ around 5PM. Hurricane winds approaching NJ, south NY."
*Note: At the source link, timestamp is wrong. source: https://twitter.com/DrGregForbes/status/262962284517801984

Winds continue to increase with Sandy. Estimated wind speed at landfall or before the center moves inland are near 100 mph. Wind gusts of 50-60+ mph are being reported along the NJ, NY, MA coasts and gusting to 66 mph at JFK Airport in NYC. Numerous power outages are coming in from various news sources with reports of 150,000 without power. This will continue and worsen as Sandy nears landfall south of Atlantic City.

Currently - Winds: 90 mph | Pressure 940 mb | Location: 38.3N 73.1W (175 miles South-southeast of New York City New York and 110 miles Southeast of Atlantic City New Jersey) | Moving Northwest at 28 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out 485 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. A tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for North of surf City to Duck North Carolina and Pamlico / Albemarle sounds. Please Check previous posts Below for more information on expected impacts.

Hurricane #Sandy Life Threatening May Strengthen further - 11:00 AM EDT 10/29/12

Sandy continues to strengthen and may, 'may' become a category 2 Hurricane before weakening. Regardless of this, this is a dangerous storm and should bot be taken lightly.

Complete your final preparations if you haven't already done so. Stay inside. Stay off the roads. Avoid floodwater's and downed power lines if you do travel out [NOT RECOMMENDED]. Continue to listen to local officials & follow the forecast.

A reminder if you are riding this dangerous storm out and have already been asked to evacuate or evacuating is/was recommended. Emergency Personal / First Responders will not be risking their lives to come save you. Even if they choose too, it is likely they wouldn't be able due to flooding, downed trees and other debris blocking many roads.

Currently - Winds: 90 mph | Pressure 943 mb | Location: 33.5N 71.5W (260 miles South-southeast of New York City New York and 205 miles Southeast of Atlantic City New Jersey) | Moving North-Northwest at 18 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out 485 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. A tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for North of surf City to Duck North Carolina and Pamlico / Albemarle sounds. Please Check previous posts for more information on expected impacts.

When Sandy goes Post-Tropical later today, the Foot's Forecast: Severe Storm Center will be issuing updates and they will be shared with this page.

Hurricane #Sandy - #Wind #StormSurge #Rain #Snow - 8:00 AM EDT 10/29/12

[Cross posted from Foot’s Forecast: The Tropical Zone, time is short, info current as of 8 AM EDT]

Good morning folks. We hope you are as prepared as you can be. If not, you should be finalizing your preparations as time is running out for you to do so. Heed all warnings and advisories issued by your local weather service and media outlets. Sandy is now expected to be a 'strong Category 1 Hurricane with winds of 90 mph at landfall'. At this time we have determined Sandy [the center] will make landfall in the area of northern Delaware and Southern New Jersey, in the Delaware Bay early Tuesday morning. When Sandy goes Post-Tropical later today, the Foot's Forecast: Severe Storm Center will be issuing updates and they will be shared with Foot’s Forecast: The Tropical Zone.

Currently - Winds: 85 mph | Pressure 946 mb | Location: 36.8N 71.1W (310 miles South-southeast of New York City New York and 265 miles Southeast of Atlantic City New Jersey) | Moving North-Northwest at 20 mph. Currently Tropical storm force winds extend out 485 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. Sandy will be felt long before the center makes landfall. A tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect from Cape Fear to duck North Carolina, Pamlico / Albemarle sounds and Bermuda.

Hurricane force winds are expected between Chincoteague Virgina and Chatam Massachusetts including the Tidal Potomas from Cobb Island to Smith Point, the Middle and Upper Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, The coasts of the Northern Delmarva Peninsula, New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Tropical storm Force winds are expected North of Chatam to the Merrimack River Massachusetts, the Lower Chesapeake Bay, South of Chincoteague to Duck North Carolina.

*Threats*

Winds in and around the area 'could be stronger' or weaker. It all depends on how strong Sandy Gets.: Winds as strong as but not limited to 'Hurricane Force [74 mph to 95 mph / Category 1]' strength will reach the Mid-Atlantic states including New York City and Long Island 'later today'. Elevated Winds will likely be 'Stronger' than those near ground level. These stronger winds will affect the 'upper floors of high rise buildings'. Stay away from the windows if you live on upper floors. Winds may also be stronger due to the funneling effect caused by buildings and other structures. Tropical Storm force winds [39 mph to 73 mph] and or Gale force Winds [39 mph to 54 mph] are already being felt from North Carolina 'northward' to Long Island. These winds are expected to spread to other areas of the Mid-Atlantic coast, New York City and Southern New England later this morning and today.

Storm Surge measured 'above ground' - It 'could be more' or less. It all depends on the timing [high tide/low tide] and how strong Sandy Gets. :
Long Island Sound / Paritan Bay / New York Harbor - 6 to 11 Feet
Fron Ocean City Maryland to the Connecticut / Rhode Island Border - 4 to 8 Feet
North Carolina North of Surf City including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds - 4 to 6 Feet
Connecticut / Rhode Island Border to the South Shore of Cape Cod including Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay - 3 to 6 Feet
Southeast Virginia and Delmarva including the Lower Chesapeake Bay - 2 to 4 Feet
Cape Cod to the Massachusetts / New Hampshire border including Cap Cod Bay - 2 to 4 Feet
Upper and Middle Chesapeake Bay - 1 to 3 Feet
Massachusetts / New Hampshire border to the United States / Canadian Border - 1 to 3 Feet

Rainfall from the coast further inland will likely cause flooding in low areas and flash flooding in other areas. Be aware of this as there is low confidence in forecasting 'flash floods'.: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches expected in and around Northeastern North Carolina with isolated amounts of 8 inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected in the Mid-Atlantic States and the Delmarva Peninsula with isolated amounts of 12 inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected in the Southern Tier of New York State Northeastward through New England with isolated amounts of 5 inches possible.

Snowfall: Areas of Eastern West Virginia , Western Virginia, Western North Carolina, Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Tennessee are currently under a Blizzard Warning and or Winter Storm Warning. In the 'blizzard warned areas' Heavy snow with white-out conditions can be expected with deep drifts and dangerous wind chill likely. In the 'winter storm warned areas' Heavy wet snow, heavy freezing rain and or heavy sleet can be expected.
Snow amounts expected range from '2 to 3 Feet' in the mountains of West Virginia with locally higher amounts possible 'today through Wednesday'. Snow amounts expected range from '1 to 2 Feet' in the mountains of Southwestern Virginia to the Kentucky Border and '12 to 18 inches' in the mountains near the North Carolina / Tennessee border and in the mountains of Western Maryland.


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 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Hurricane #Sandy may Strengthen a little - October 28 2012

Hurricane Sandy is showing signs of strengthening but it's not a guarantee she will. Hurricane Sandy will be in warm waters of the Atlantic Gulf Stream as she continues to head northward. I expect a slight increase in her strength as far as sustained winds, maybe up to 80 mph around her core. Once she enters cooler waters to her north she will maintain her strength but will not strengthen further.

Here's the latest on Sandy as of 8:00 AM EDT - Winds: 75 mph | Pressure 951 mb | Location: 32.1N 73.1W (395 miles East of New York City New York and 260 miles Southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina) | Moving NE at 10 mph. Currently Tropical storm force winds extend out 520 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. A tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect from Cape Fear to duck North Carolina, Pamlico and Alnemarle sounds and Bermuda.

What kind of weather to expect and threats ... Along the east coast as Sandy heads in a northward direction expect winds to increase ahead of her. Tropical Storm Force winds will be felt today along the outer-banks of North Carolina spreading northward, as well as ruff surf and storm surge. Heavy tropical rains can also be expected along the coast decreasing further inland. Remember as Sandy Moves Northward so shall the adverse weather. Sandy is a large storm and her effects will be felt far from her center. It is important that you not concentrate on where her center is located on a map because of this. Effect's will be felt long before the center of the storm is near or over land.

For those of you in the Mid Atlantic, Northeast and Southern New England areas, if you haven't made preparations yet, Now would be the time to do so. High wind watches and warnings are currently in effect for many areas including the Mid Atlantic and New England in advance of Sandy. I urge you to take all Warnings issued by your local national weather service office seriously. Continue to monitor your local media and national weather service offices for Watches and Warning specific to your local area.


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 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information as this storm unfolds at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone .

On a side note - While I am fully capable of speaking weather lingo, I leave it out in most if not all of my posts. I do this because you the general public are likely not to understand it. I give you what you need. Simple, relevant to the point facts and information. Besides, it gives me a headache hahaha. ~ ED

Tropical Storm #Sandy .. What's in a name ?

Don't focus on what Sandy will be called in days ahead. Whether a Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Post tropical or extra tropical. She's going to cause problems for many regardless of her name and characteristics.

Depending on the exact track Sandy takes along the east coast, 'at this time' areas in North Carolina Today and spreading northward along the Mid Atlantic coast Tonight through Monday can expect rainfall of 1-4 inches with higher totals approaching 8 inches possible in some areas closer to the coast. Minor coastal flooding is expected in low lying areas with some beach erosion due to high surf up to 6 or 7 feet and Gusty winds between 30-40 mph with gusts approaching 60-70 mph possible. Flooding and loss of electricity is also possible inland.

At this time here's what you can expect 'before and during landfall' and 'inland after landfall' .. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm force winds for many hours possibly longer. Heavy rains of 8 to 12 inches along the coast and inland causing flooding issues for many. Coastal flooding and erosion for hours due to hurricane/tropical storm force winds and 'tidal surge'. Power outages widespread, Trees down, Roads closed due to debris / flooding and wash out, Airports and other transportation halted. Basic services shut down for days, a week or longer in some areas. To add to all that as if that's not enough, major snowfall measured in 'Feet' is likely for some areas west of the system in areas of Western Virginia, West Virginia, Southwest Pennsylvania. In surrounding areas of Ohio, Northeast Kentucky back into Indiana snowfall is likely as well as to the north of the system in areas of Southern New York State, East and Northeastern areas of Pennsylvania. There may be some icing issues too.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available


Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone as this storm unfolds. You can head over to Foot's Forecast [Website] for more insight and see what goes into understanding a storm like this.

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Severe Weather Possible in Southeast Today and Tonight - October 17 2012

At this time the greatest threat will be Damaging winds, although a few Tornadoes can't be entirely ruled out as this system evolves. Large damaging hail may also be possible with stronger storms.

Severe weather is expected to develop later this evening and continue through the overnight for some areas in the deep south. Storms will begin late this afternoon in areas of Southern Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana continuing southeast into Northeast Louisiana and Northwest Mississippi this evening. By midnight the storms will be across Mississippi from Northeast to Southwest and beginning to move into Northwest Alabama. In the early morning hours weakening is expected as they continue to push through Alabama into Georgia. While weakening is expected they will still need to be watched.

Click Image to Enlarge

During the early evolution of this, storms should be more individual in the form of possible Supercells evolving later into a concentrated line of storms likely forming a squall line where damaging winds will be present. As always not everyone will experience severe storms but conditions will be favorable for them to develop at any time in and around the area. Make sure you continue to monitor this, and make sure your weather radio is in working order.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Twitter. You can follow along here @CataulaGaWX

Severe Storms Four Corners Region / Central & Southern Plains Today and Tomorrow Southern & Central Plains / Mid & Upper Mississippi Valley

Threats: Severe thunderstorms capable of Damaging winds along with hail some large enough to cause damage. A tornado or two can't be ruled out as storms intensify during daylight hours.

Today Friday 10/12 : A strong low pressure system currently centered in the area of Southern Nevada and Northwestern Arizona will continue to move in a east-northeast direction today. Severe storms 'already firing' in eastern Arizona this morning will continue while heading easterly and likely intensify as the day heats up. Also seeing some higher tops in eastern New Mexico Western Texas this morning on the outer periphery of the Low pressure circulation, these will likely continue to build through the day and possibly bring severe storms. A Tornado watch may be issued later today. Some weakening is likely during the overnight hours due to loss of daytime heating, but severe storms are still possible.

Tomorrow Saturday 10/13 : Storms look at this time to be more concentrated than those of Friday. As the Low pressure continues heading east-northeast, areas of the southern and central plains will likely see thunderstorms early Saturday morning which will continue to build through the day while heading for the Upper and lower Mississippi Valley. Later in the day they will likely bring with them severe storms capable of damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. As always not everyone will experience severe weather so stay aware of changing conditions. Monitor you local weather offices, television stations and weather radios. We'll have more on this later.

Below are graphics showing areas of concern and possible weather for today 'Friday 10/12/12' and tomorrow 'Saturday 10/13/12'.

Friday October 12 2012

Saturday October 13 2012