The Nor'easter expected to impact areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this week will be No Sandy. However due to earlier damage caused by Hurricane Sandy in these areas this storm will have a greater impact.
With that said, we can sill expect strong to gusty winds in areas from 40 to 50 mph which will hamper repair of downed power lines. Winds will also be capable of bringing down tress and branches already weakened from Sandy.
'Minor to Moderate coastal flooding' with the high tide around Midday Wednesday looking like the best time for storm surge. With many area beaches and coastal property already having erosion, it is likely this storm will add to this.
'Rain amounts' of up to 4 inches can be expected at this time in and around the areas closer to the coast with lesser amounts inland. Due to flooded areas which at this time have not receded any extra water will cause them to rise, and may also cause areas to flood again.
'Snow will also be a concern' on the backside of the counter clockwise flow around the storm. Areas likely to see snow at this time are inland in PA, NJ and NY maybe even as far south as VA; these areas 'could' see 1 to 4 inches maybe more. I think the New England area 'could' see 8 to 15 inches depending on storm path. Uncertainty remains at this time in this as we are still days away form this storm impacting the northeast and the final path is unknown, whether it will hug the coast or be farther away.
Projected Path of Nor'easter Tuesday November 6 thru Friday November 9 2012
Forecast Rain amounts Nov 4 thru Nov 9
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Severe Weather, Hurricanes, Snow or life threatening weather related events. Main focus West Central Georgia & Southeast.
Showing posts with label Atlantic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Atlantic. Show all posts
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
#Sandy Makes Landfall October 29 2012 - Graphics
Sandy has made landfall as an Extratropical storm on the southern tip of New Jersey near Cape May and Ocean city. At landfall Sandy had Sustained winds of 90 mph and a central pressure of 940mb. Tropical Storm Force and Hurricane Force winds were felt for many hours. The National Hurricane Center has Sandy as a Post-Tropical Cyclone making landfall at 8:00 PM EDT Monday, October 29 2012 with winds of 80 mph and a central pressure of 946 located at 39.4N 74.5W. and moving WNW AT 23 MPH .[see note at bottom of post]
Below is the ONLY graphic from the Hurricane center of Sandy before landfall at 5:00 PM EDT Monday, October 29 2012. There is not a graphic at landfall at 8:00 PM EDT. Notice the location on the graphic 38.8N 74.4W and moving WNW at 28 mph as compared to the location at landfall from above 39.4N 74.5W. and moving WNW AT 23 MPH.
So the storm was moving at 23 mph at landfall, a decrease of 2 mph from the 5 pm report. Yet it took according to the Hurricane center 3 hours from the 5 pm report to make landfall at 8 pm, moving less than 34.4 miles at 23 miles and hour. Where as at 23 mph X 3 hours would have moved it 69 miles. I contend Hurricane Sandy made landfall between 6:15 and 6:30 pm as reported to my followers here, on facebook, and twitter as an as an Extratropical storm. Apples and Oranges, I know.
Here are Satellite images of Sandy During landfall from 6:15 PM EDT, 7:45 PM EDT and 8:15 PM EDT.
Sandy SAT 615 pm EDT 102912
Sandy SAT 745 pm EDT 102912
Sandy SAT 815 pm EDT 102912
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Below is the ONLY graphic from the Hurricane center of Sandy before landfall at 5:00 PM EDT Monday, October 29 2012. There is not a graphic at landfall at 8:00 PM EDT. Notice the location on the graphic 38.8N 74.4W and moving WNW at 28 mph as compared to the location at landfall from above 39.4N 74.5W. and moving WNW AT 23 MPH.
So the storm was moving at 23 mph at landfall, a decrease of 2 mph from the 5 pm report. Yet it took according to the Hurricane center 3 hours from the 5 pm report to make landfall at 8 pm, moving less than 34.4 miles at 23 miles and hour. Where as at 23 mph X 3 hours would have moved it 69 miles. I contend Hurricane Sandy made landfall between 6:15 and 6:30 pm as reported to my followers here, on facebook, and twitter as an as an Extratropical storm. Apples and Oranges, I know.
Here are Satellite images of Sandy During landfall from 6:15 PM EDT, 7:45 PM EDT and 8:15 PM EDT.
Sandy SAT 615 pm EDT 102912
Sandy SAT 745 pm EDT 102912
Sandy SAT 815 pm EDT 102912
Note - Landfall : The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. Compare direct hit, indirect hit, and strike. source - http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=lMany including myself thought from looking at data at the time that Hurricane Sandy made landfall between 6:15 and 6:30 PM EDT Monday October 29 2012; including some pro Mets. However the official time of landfall for Hurricane Sandy as released by the National Hurricane Center was at 8:00 PM EDT Monday October 29 2012. I will also point out that http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#l the National Hurricane Center tells us the same thing as the first link above from weather.gov. .... Now from observations, Hurricane Sandy or as it was called at landfall, Post-Tropical Cyclone SANDY, made landfall after the WHOLE EYE was on land. Not the leading edge. Not the center. The complete eye, at 8 PM EDT Monday October 29 2012
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Monday, October 29, 2012
Hurricane #Sandy Making Landfall - 5:00 PM EDT 10/29/12
Currently - Winds: 90 mph | Pressure 940 mb | Location: 38.8N 74.4W (30 miles East-southeast of Cape May New Jersey and 40 miles South of Atlantic City New Jersey) | Moving Northwest at 28 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out 485 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center.
Sandy is still off shore at this time. She is continuing to head to the north-northwest at 28 mph. Sandy is headed for Cape May New Jersey and the Delaware Bay area. Reminder: When we talk about landfall, we are speaking of the center of the storm. Sandy is large and as many of you know, her winds and rains have been felt much of the day. So the center is not that important.
Below shows Storm Radial Velocity on the left measuring wind speed and Base Radar on right showing rain.
Sandy is still off shore at this time. She is continuing to head to the north-northwest at 28 mph. Sandy is headed for Cape May New Jersey and the Delaware Bay area. Reminder: When we talk about landfall, we are speaking of the center of the storm. Sandy is large and as many of you know, her winds and rains have been felt much of the day. So the center is not that important.
Below shows Storm Radial Velocity on the left measuring wind speed and Base Radar on right showing rain.
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Hurricane #Sandy Landfall 5:00 to 7:00 PM EDT | Update 2:00 PM EDT 10/29/12
At 940mb, Sandy is now the strongest hurricane recorded north of North Carolina!
Time of the center making landfall likely 5:00 to 7:00 PM EDT.
Per a tweet at 1:01 PM EDT Today from Dr. Greg Forbes @DrGregForbes from the weather Channel: "Sandy is speeding up, moving northwest at 25-30 mph. It could make landfall south NJ around 5PM. Hurricane winds approaching NJ, south NY."
*Note: At the source link, timestamp is wrong. source: https://twitter.com/DrGregForbes/status/262962284517801984
Winds continue to increase with Sandy. Estimated wind speed at landfall or before the center moves inland are near 100 mph. Wind gusts of 50-60+ mph are being reported along the NJ, NY, MA coasts and gusting to 66 mph at JFK Airport in NYC. Numerous power outages are coming in from various news sources with reports of 150,000 without power. This will continue and worsen as Sandy nears landfall south of Atlantic City.
Currently - Winds: 90 mph | Pressure 940 mb | Location: 38.3N 73.1W (175 miles South-southeast of New York City New York and 110 miles Southeast of Atlantic City New Jersey) | Moving Northwest at 28 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out 485 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. A tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for North of surf City to Duck North Carolina and Pamlico / Albemarle sounds. Please Check previous posts Below for more information on expected impacts.
Time of the center making landfall likely 5:00 to 7:00 PM EDT.
Per a tweet at 1:01 PM EDT Today from Dr. Greg Forbes @DrGregForbes from the weather Channel: "Sandy is speeding up, moving northwest at 25-30 mph. It could make landfall south NJ around 5PM. Hurricane winds approaching NJ, south NY."
*Note: At the source link, timestamp is wrong. source: https://twitter.com/DrGregForbes/status/262962284517801984
Winds continue to increase with Sandy. Estimated wind speed at landfall or before the center moves inland are near 100 mph. Wind gusts of 50-60+ mph are being reported along the NJ, NY, MA coasts and gusting to 66 mph at JFK Airport in NYC. Numerous power outages are coming in from various news sources with reports of 150,000 without power. This will continue and worsen as Sandy nears landfall south of Atlantic City.
Currently - Winds: 90 mph | Pressure 940 mb | Location: 38.3N 73.1W (175 miles South-southeast of New York City New York and 110 miles Southeast of Atlantic City New Jersey) | Moving Northwest at 28 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out 485 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. A tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for North of surf City to Duck North Carolina and Pamlico / Albemarle sounds. Please Check previous posts Below for more information on expected impacts.
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Sunday, October 28, 2012
Hurricane #Sandy may Strengthen a little - October 28 2012
Hurricane Sandy is showing signs of strengthening but it's not a guarantee she will. Hurricane Sandy will be in warm waters of the Atlantic Gulf Stream as she continues to head northward. I expect a slight increase in her strength as far as sustained winds, maybe up to 80 mph around her core. Once she enters cooler waters to her north she will maintain her strength but will not strengthen further.
Here's the latest on Sandy as of 8:00 AM EDT - Winds: 75 mph | Pressure 951 mb | Location: 32.1N 73.1W (395 miles East of New York City New York and 260 miles Southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina) | Moving NE at 10 mph. Currently Tropical storm force winds extend out 520 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. A tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect from Cape Fear to duck North Carolina, Pamlico and Alnemarle sounds and Bermuda.
What kind of weather to expect and threats ... Along the east coast as Sandy heads in a northward direction expect winds to increase ahead of her. Tropical Storm Force winds will be felt today along the outer-banks of North Carolina spreading northward, as well as ruff surf and storm surge. Heavy tropical rains can also be expected along the coast decreasing further inland. Remember as Sandy Moves Northward so shall the adverse weather. Sandy is a large storm and her effects will be felt far from her center. It is important that you not concentrate on where her center is located on a map because of this. Effect's will be felt long before the center of the storm is near or over land.
For those of you in the Mid Atlantic, Northeast and Southern New England areas, if you haven't made preparations yet, Now would be the time to do so. High wind watches and warnings are currently in effect for many areas including the Mid Atlantic and New England in advance of Sandy. I urge you to take all Warnings issued by your local national weather service office seriously. Continue to monitor your local media and national weather service offices for Watches and Warning specific to your local area.
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See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information as this storm unfolds at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone .
On a side note - While I am fully capable of speaking weather lingo, I leave it out in most if not all of my posts. I do this because you the general public are likely not to understand it. I give you what you need. Simple, relevant to the point facts and information. Besides, it gives me a headache hahaha. ~ ED
Here's the latest on Sandy as of 8:00 AM EDT - Winds: 75 mph | Pressure 951 mb | Location: 32.1N 73.1W (395 miles East of New York City New York and 260 miles Southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina) | Moving NE at 10 mph. Currently Tropical storm force winds extend out 520 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. A tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect from Cape Fear to duck North Carolina, Pamlico and Alnemarle sounds and Bermuda.
What kind of weather to expect and threats ... Along the east coast as Sandy heads in a northward direction expect winds to increase ahead of her. Tropical Storm Force winds will be felt today along the outer-banks of North Carolina spreading northward, as well as ruff surf and storm surge. Heavy tropical rains can also be expected along the coast decreasing further inland. Remember as Sandy Moves Northward so shall the adverse weather. Sandy is a large storm and her effects will be felt far from her center. It is important that you not concentrate on where her center is located on a map because of this. Effect's will be felt long before the center of the storm is near or over land.
For those of you in the Mid Atlantic, Northeast and Southern New England areas, if you haven't made preparations yet, Now would be the time to do so. High wind watches and warnings are currently in effect for many areas including the Mid Atlantic and New England in advance of Sandy. I urge you to take all Warnings issued by your local national weather service office seriously. Continue to monitor your local media and national weather service offices for Watches and Warning specific to your local area.
Follow @Cataulagawx
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information as this storm unfolds at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone .
On a side note - While I am fully capable of speaking weather lingo, I leave it out in most if not all of my posts. I do this because you the general public are likely not to understand it. I give you what you need. Simple, relevant to the point facts and information. Besides, it gives me a headache hahaha. ~ ED
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Tropical Storm #Sandy .. What's in a name ?
Don't focus on what Sandy will be called in days ahead. Whether a Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Post tropical or extra tropical. She's going to cause problems for many regardless of her name and characteristics.
Depending on the exact track Sandy takes along the east coast, 'at this time' areas in North Carolina Today and spreading northward along the Mid Atlantic coast Tonight through Monday can expect rainfall of 1-4 inches with higher totals approaching 8 inches possible in some areas closer to the coast. Minor coastal flooding is expected in low lying areas with some beach erosion due to high surf up to 6 or 7 feet and Gusty winds between 30-40 mph with gusts approaching 60-70 mph possible. Flooding and loss of electricity is also possible inland.
At this time here's what you can expect 'before and during landfall' and 'inland after landfall' .. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm force winds for many hours possibly longer. Heavy rains of 8 to 12 inches along the coast and inland causing flooding issues for many. Coastal flooding and erosion for hours due to hurricane/tropical storm force winds and 'tidal surge'. Power outages widespread, Trees down, Roads closed due to debris / flooding and wash out, Airports and other transportation halted. Basic services shut down for days, a week or longer in some areas. To add to all that as if that's not enough, major snowfall measured in 'Feet' is likely for some areas west of the system in areas of Western Virginia, West Virginia, Southwest Pennsylvania. In surrounding areas of Ohio, Northeast Kentucky back into Indiana snowfall is likely as well as to the north of the system in areas of Southern New York State, East and Northeastern areas of Pennsylvania. There may be some icing issues too.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone as this storm unfolds. You can head over to Foot's Forecast [Website] for more insight and see what goes into understanding a storm like this.
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Depending on the exact track Sandy takes along the east coast, 'at this time' areas in North Carolina Today and spreading northward along the Mid Atlantic coast Tonight through Monday can expect rainfall of 1-4 inches with higher totals approaching 8 inches possible in some areas closer to the coast. Minor coastal flooding is expected in low lying areas with some beach erosion due to high surf up to 6 or 7 feet and Gusty winds between 30-40 mph with gusts approaching 60-70 mph possible. Flooding and loss of electricity is also possible inland.
At this time here's what you can expect 'before and during landfall' and 'inland after landfall' .. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm force winds for many hours possibly longer. Heavy rains of 8 to 12 inches along the coast and inland causing flooding issues for many. Coastal flooding and erosion for hours due to hurricane/tropical storm force winds and 'tidal surge'. Power outages widespread, Trees down, Roads closed due to debris / flooding and wash out, Airports and other transportation halted. Basic services shut down for days, a week or longer in some areas. To add to all that as if that's not enough, major snowfall measured in 'Feet' is likely for some areas west of the system in areas of Western Virginia, West Virginia, Southwest Pennsylvania. In surrounding areas of Ohio, Northeast Kentucky back into Indiana snowfall is likely as well as to the north of the system in areas of Southern New York State, East and Northeastern areas of Pennsylvania. There may be some icing issues too.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone as this storm unfolds. You can head over to Foot's Forecast [Website] for more insight and see what goes into understanding a storm like this.
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Friday, October 26, 2012
Hurricane #Sandy - #Frankenstorm .. I'll continue calling her Sandy
HURRICANE SANDY
Winds: 80 mph
Pressure 968 mb
Location: 26.3N 76.9W (15 miles East-southeast of Great Abaco Island, 485 miles South-southeast of Charleston South Carolina)
Moving NW at 13 mph
Sandy is expected to continue to the Northwest for a short time and her forward speed should slow down a little today. Later this evening Sandy should begin a turn back more to the North and to the Northeast on Saturday. Sandy will remain a Hurricane during this time and for the next couple of days while moving back over open waters of the Atlantic.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Extensive coverage begins later including what to expect and where. Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone as this storm unfolds. You can head over to Foot's Forecast [Website] for more insight and see what goes into understanding a storm like this.
Winds: 80 mph
Pressure 968 mb
Location: 26.3N 76.9W (15 miles East-southeast of Great Abaco Island, 485 miles South-southeast of Charleston South Carolina)
Moving NW at 13 mph
Sandy is expected to continue to the Northwest for a short time and her forward speed should slow down a little today. Later this evening Sandy should begin a turn back more to the North and to the Northeast on Saturday. Sandy will remain a Hurricane during this time and for the next couple of days while moving back over open waters of the Atlantic.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Extensive coverage begins later including what to expect and where. Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone as this storm unfolds. You can head over to Foot's Forecast [Website] for more insight and see what goes into understanding a storm like this.
Labels:
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Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Hurricane #Rafael - October 16 2012
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.
As expected Rafael became a Hurricane yesterday at 6:45 PM AST with winds near 75 mph as reported by hurricane hunter aircraft. Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2012 hurricane season and the 9th hurricane. The 2012 hurricane season ends on November 30th so there's plenty of time for a few more storms.
Currently Rafael is a category 1 hurricane located about 195 miles south of Bermuda at 29.5North 64.4West with winds of 85 mph, heading rapidly at 23 mph toward the North-northeast with a central pressure of 969 mb. Hurricane force winds extend outward 35 miles and tropical storm force winds out 205 miles from the center. The center of Rafael will pass to the east of Bermuda late this evening with a turn toward the northeast along with an increase in forward speed later today or tomorrow. Rafael should begin to weaken due to strong wind shear upward of 40 kt and continue weakening as he moves into colder water becoming extratropical by Thursday.
Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches and tropical storm winds are expected across Bermuda this afternoon and evening. Life threatening surf and rip currents are anticipated along areas of Bermuda and may also impact areas along the U.S. east coast in the next couple of days.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
As expected Rafael became a Hurricane yesterday at 6:45 PM AST with winds near 75 mph as reported by hurricane hunter aircraft. Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2012 hurricane season and the 9th hurricane. The 2012 hurricane season ends on November 30th so there's plenty of time for a few more storms.
Currently Rafael is a category 1 hurricane located about 195 miles south of Bermuda at 29.5North 64.4West with winds of 85 mph, heading rapidly at 23 mph toward the North-northeast with a central pressure of 969 mb. Hurricane force winds extend outward 35 miles and tropical storm force winds out 205 miles from the center. The center of Rafael will pass to the east of Bermuda late this evening with a turn toward the northeast along with an increase in forward speed later today or tomorrow. Rafael should begin to weaken due to strong wind shear upward of 40 kt and continue weakening as he moves into colder water becoming extratropical by Thursday.
Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches and tropical storm winds are expected across Bermuda this afternoon and evening. Life threatening surf and rip currents are anticipated along areas of Bermuda and may also impact areas along the U.S. east coast in the next couple of days.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Monday, October 15, 2012
Tropical Storm #Rafael - October 15 2012
Not a mutant ninja .. but likely to mutate into a Hurricane today. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Bermuda.
Rafael is the 17th named system of the 2012 hurricane season. Currently located about 645 miles to the South of Bermuda at 23.0North 65.7West with winds of 70 mph and a central pressure of 985 mb, Rafael is moving at about 9 mph toward the north-northwest. A turn toward the North is anticipated today or early tomorrow and a turn toward the northeast on Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles form the storms center at this time. Tropical storm force winds may begin to impact Bermuda tomorrow. The exact track of Rafael is uncertain at this time. We urge those on the island of Bermuda to monitor this storm closely in the coming days.
Hazards associated with Rafael at this time include additional heavy rains of 1 to 3 inches over areas of the Leeward Islands with possible storm totals up to 12 inches, which may cause 'flash floods and mudslides'. Also high surf is anticipated to affect Bermuda over the coming days causing rip current conditions which may endanger life.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
TRMM Microwave Image shows the eye of Rafael wrapping up
Rafael is the 17th named system of the 2012 hurricane season. Currently located about 645 miles to the South of Bermuda at 23.0North 65.7West with winds of 70 mph and a central pressure of 985 mb, Rafael is moving at about 9 mph toward the north-northwest. A turn toward the North is anticipated today or early tomorrow and a turn toward the northeast on Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles form the storms center at this time. Tropical storm force winds may begin to impact Bermuda tomorrow. The exact track of Rafael is uncertain at this time. We urge those on the island of Bermuda to monitor this storm closely in the coming days.
Hazards associated with Rafael at this time include additional heavy rains of 1 to 3 inches over areas of the Leeward Islands with possible storm totals up to 12 inches, which may cause 'flash floods and mudslides'. Also high surf is anticipated to affect Bermuda over the coming days causing rip current conditions which may endanger life.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
TRMM Microwave Image shows the eye of Rafael wrapping up
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Tropical Storm #Rafael / Tropical Depression #Patty - October 13 2012
**Bermuda should monitor Rafael closely.**
TD Patty: As mentioned in previous posts Patty is expected to become a remnant low at some time today. Patty has winds of 35 mph and is located about 280 miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas 25.5North 71.9West with a central pressure of 1008 mb. Currently Patty is stationary. Movement to the west-southwest is anticipated which should continue until she dissipates. 'No Watches or Warnings in effect'.
TS Rafael: Rafael is the 17th named system of the 2012 hurricane season. Currently located about 165 miles south-southeast of St. Croix in the Virgin Islands 15.5North 63.9West with winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1006 mb, Rafael is moving at about 9 mph toward the northwest. A turn toward the north-northwest is anticipated later today and this will bring the center of Rafael close or over the Virgin Islands. During this time some strengthening is expected. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles at this time to the southeast side of the center. Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands and are possible around Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques tonight, and Sunday October 14. **Bermuda should monitor Rafael closely.**
Watches and Warnings:
* A Tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Kits, Nevis, Antigua, Montserrat, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Guadeloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante, and Martinique.
* A tropical Storm 'Watch' is in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
TD Patty: As mentioned in previous posts Patty is expected to become a remnant low at some time today. Patty has winds of 35 mph and is located about 280 miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas 25.5North 71.9West with a central pressure of 1008 mb. Currently Patty is stationary. Movement to the west-southwest is anticipated which should continue until she dissipates. 'No Watches or Warnings in effect'.
TS Rafael: Rafael is the 17th named system of the 2012 hurricane season. Currently located about 165 miles south-southeast of St. Croix in the Virgin Islands 15.5North 63.9West with winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1006 mb, Rafael is moving at about 9 mph toward the northwest. A turn toward the north-northwest is anticipated later today and this will bring the center of Rafael close or over the Virgin Islands. During this time some strengthening is expected. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles at this time to the southeast side of the center. Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands and are possible around Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques tonight, and Sunday October 14. **Bermuda should monitor Rafael closely.**
Watches and Warnings:
* A Tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Kits, Nevis, Antigua, Montserrat, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Guadeloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante, and Martinique.
* A tropical Storm 'Watch' is in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Friday, October 12, 2012
Tropical Storm #Patty / Invest #98L
Hurricane Hunters are on the way to have a look at Patty. They'll continue southeast and have a look at Invest98L this afternoon.
Patty is located about 275 miles to the East-Northeast of the central Bahamas at 25.5North 72.0West with winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1006. Patty is drifting to the northeast at about 2 mph and this is expected to continue today with a turn toward the southwest expected on Saturday. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward about 70 miles form the center. There are 'no tropical storm watches or warnings'. Patty should begin to weaken and she should become a remnant low over the weekend. As mentioned in earlier post, Patty will be short lived.
Invest98L should become the 17th named storm of the 2012 Hurricane season. When it does, it will be Rafael. It will likely be a named system later today, if not by tomorrow. This system has an 80% chance of further development. Currently the system is generally showing better organization and is likely producing 'tropical storm winds' in the outer bands. While the system continues to show an open circulation on satellite, it should close off over the weekend and strengthening is expected. Currently computer models show Tropical Storm Rafael staying off the east coast and maintaining tropical storm strength in the coming days. In the near term, a tropical storm warning may be issued for areas of the Leeward Islands. In the long term, Bermuda should be monitoring this system for possible impacts in the area.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Patty is located about 275 miles to the East-Northeast of the central Bahamas at 25.5North 72.0West with winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1006. Patty is drifting to the northeast at about 2 mph and this is expected to continue today with a turn toward the southwest expected on Saturday. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward about 70 miles form the center. There are 'no tropical storm watches or warnings'. Patty should begin to weaken and she should become a remnant low over the weekend. As mentioned in earlier post, Patty will be short lived.
Invest98L should become the 17th named storm of the 2012 Hurricane season. When it does, it will be Rafael. It will likely be a named system later today, if not by tomorrow. This system has an 80% chance of further development. Currently the system is generally showing better organization and is likely producing 'tropical storm winds' in the outer bands. While the system continues to show an open circulation on satellite, it should close off over the weekend and strengthening is expected. Currently computer models show Tropical Storm Rafael staying off the east coast and maintaining tropical storm strength in the coming days. In the near term, a tropical storm warning may be issued for areas of the Leeward Islands. In the long term, Bermuda should be monitoring this system for possible impacts in the area.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Tropical Depression Sixteen #TD16 / Invest #98L - October 11 2012
Hurricane season ends on November 30. With that said we have a newly formed tropical depression this morning, Tropical depression Sixteen. Currently located about 235 miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas at 25.4North 72.6West, TD 16 has winds of 35 mph, a central pressure of 1009 mb and is moving south at 1 mph. TD 16 is expected to have no impact on the US mainland and there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. In fact, little if any strengthening is anticipated with TD 16 and it is expected at this time to dissipate by Saturday.
While TD 16 does it's thing I'm also monitoring an area currently designated as Invest 98L. Currently this system has a 50 percent chance of further development in the coming days. Estimates currently locate 98L about 350 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands heading west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Heavy rainfall and squally winds are possible during the next couple of days in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles.
I'll keep an eye on both of these systems in the coming days for changes.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
While TD 16 does it's thing I'm also monitoring an area currently designated as Invest 98L. Currently this system has a 50 percent chance of further development in the coming days. Estimates currently locate 98L about 350 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands heading west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Heavy rainfall and squally winds are possible during the next couple of days in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles.
I'll keep an eye on both of these systems in the coming days for changes.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Saturday, September 15, 2012
#Nadine becomes a Hurricane, 8th of the 2012 Atlantic Season
Nadine will have no impact on the US mainland, still bears keeping an eye on her. Currently positioned at 30.0 North 52.8 West or about 725 miles east of Bermuda with maximum winds of 75 mph and a central pressure of 985 MB, Nadine is now moving North-Northeast at 14 mph. In the coming day Nadine is expected to turn toward the northeast and see a slight decrease in forward speed followed by an increase in forward speed and a turn more easterly Saturday night early Sunday morning.
I'll be keeping an eye on an area of disorganized convection in the Caribbean located about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands in the coming days. At this time it has a 10% chance of further developing and conditions do not look favorable at this time.
You can find all information on Nadine including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
I'll be keeping an eye on an area of disorganized convection in the Caribbean located about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands in the coming days. At this time it has a 10% chance of further developing and conditions do not look favorable at this time.
You can find all information on Nadine including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Tropical Storm #Nadine - 14th named storm of 2012 Hurricane Season - 9/11/12
Tropical Storm Nadine has formed in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and posses No threat to the U.S. or any land mass at this time. Forecast for Nadine take her in a similar path as what was Hurricane Michael which is now post tropical as is Leslie.
Currently [11:00 PM EDT 9/11/12] Nadine has winds of 40 mph and is moving West-Northwest at 15 mph with a central pressure of 1004 MB, and is located at 17.8 north 45.2 west or about 1735 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Nadine could become a hurricane in the next 2 days.
You can find all the information on this Storm including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Currently [11:00 PM EDT 9/11/12] Nadine has winds of 40 mph and is moving West-Northwest at 15 mph with a central pressure of 1004 MB, and is located at 17.8 north 45.2 west or about 1735 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Nadine could become a hurricane in the next 2 days.
You can find all the information on this Storm including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Tropical Storm #Michael [#TD13] - September 4 2012
Tropical storm Michael the 13th named system of the 2012 hurricane season and the first of the month of September has formed.
While currently designated as Tropical Depression Thirteen at 10:00 AM EDT, he will be upgraded to a Storm on the 11:00 AM update from the National Hurricane center. Model guidance currently has him as a storm at this time.
Michael is not expected to have any impact of the U.S. mainland and will be another fish storm, only bothering fish and any shipping in the area.
You can find all the information on these Storms including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
While currently designated as Tropical Depression Thirteen at 10:00 AM EDT, he will be upgraded to a Storm on the 11:00 AM update from the National Hurricane center. Model guidance currently has him as a storm at this time.
AL, 13, 2012090412, , BEST, 0, 268N, 435W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1016, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, M,
Michael is not expected to have any impact of the U.S. mainland and will be another fish storm, only bothering fish and any shipping in the area.
You can find all the information on these Storms including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Tropical Storm #Leslie has formed in the Atlantic- August 30 2012
Tropical Storm Leslie currently [2:00 pm EDT] has winds of 40 mph and will likely become a Hurricane in the next 48 hours. Much Uncertainty remains in the track of this system due to influence of Hurricane Kirk and the subtropical ridge to it's west. This storm will need to be watched closely in the coming days for possible impact to the U.S. east coast.
You can find all the information on these Storms including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
You can find all the information on these Storms including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Labels:
Atlantic,
August 2012,
East Coast,
hurricane,
Leslie,
Tropical Storm Leslie,
Tropics
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Tropical Storm #Joyce - August 23 2012
Tropical Storm Joyce has formed in the East Atlantic. See my earlier post on Joyce from this morning when she was still Tropical Depression Ten http://cataulagawx.blogspot.com/2012/08/TropicalDepression10-TropicalWave-August232012.html
Update August 23 2012 11 pm EDT - Joyce has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Update August 23 2012 11 pm EDT - Joyce has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Labels:
Atlantic,
August 2012,
Bermuda,
Joyce,
Tropical Storm Joyce August 2012
Tropical Depression 10 #TD10, another Tropical Wave exits Africa
As for Tropical Depression 10 .. She is still headed West-Northwestward at 16mph with winds of 35mph and a central pressure of 1007mb. It is anticipated she will become a 'Tropical Storm' sometime today or on Friday. She will be named Joyce when that occurs. Currently situated at 13.8North 39.5West about 1045 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.
She should be no threat to the U.S. mainland, but the Island of Bermuda should be watching her closely as she may impact or come close to the area. Still remains to be seen but here's the latest computer models.
Also of interest at this time is yet another tropical wave which has exited the west coast of Africa. At this time it has a 10 percent chance of further developing as it continues to head west at about 15mph. You can see this area in yellow to the right in this image.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems
She should be no threat to the U.S. mainland, but the Island of Bermuda should be watching her closely as she may impact or come close to the area. Still remains to be seen but here's the latest computer models.
Also of interest at this time is yet another tropical wave which has exited the west coast of Africa. At this time it has a 10 percent chance of further developing as it continues to head west at about 15mph. You can see this area in yellow to the right in this image.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Tropical Storm #Isaac - #Invest96L - August 22 2012
Isaac still a Tropical Storm at this hour 'expected to become a Hurricane within the next 48 hours'. Currently located at 15.5North 57.3West about 280 Miles East of Guadeloupe, with winds of 45mph and is heading West at 18mph. The central pressure is 1003mb or 29.62inches. Isaac is showing better organization on satellite imagery and beginning to get the classic look of tropical systems. Isaac has an eye as reported by Hurricane Hunters currently investigating with a diameter of 10 nautical miles [ 12 statute miles ].
Outer rainbands are currently impacting the Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Isaac will impact the Leeward Islands Today. Some strengthening may occur before landfall. Tropical Storm winds which extend outward 45 miles form the center of Isaac will be felt before the center makes landfall. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 8 inches are expected in some areas before Isaac crosses and makes his way into the Western Caribbean Thursday morning.
* A 'Hurricane Watch' is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona Westward to the Haiti Dominican Republic Southern Border.
* A Tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe and St. Martin and surrounding Islands as well as St. Kits, Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
* A tropical Storm 'Watch' is in effect for the North Coast of the Dominican Republic from Haiti Dominican Republic Northern Border Eastward to North of Isla Saona.
* Interest in and around these areas including Hispaniola and Cuba should be monitoring the progress of Isaac.
* I urge interest in Florida, the Eastern Gulf coastal areas and the East coast to remain vigilante as the forecast track of Isaac remains uncertain at this time.
Perspectivas De Las Condiciones Del Tiempo En El Tropico -
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/SJUTWOSP+shtml/220625.shtml
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems
I continue to watch [Invest 96L] in the East Atlantic about 650 Miles West-Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave has winds last reported of 30mph and is located at 11.5North 34.5West moving to the West-Northwest. As of 2:00 AM EDT 96L has a 90 percent chance of becoming our next depression or storm 'later today'. Once named it will be Joyce. The forecast track at this time remains uncertain. Next update from NHC on this system 8:00 AM EDT
I'll be keeping a close watch on both of these systems in the days to come.
Outer rainbands are currently impacting the Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Isaac will impact the Leeward Islands Today. Some strengthening may occur before landfall. Tropical Storm winds which extend outward 45 miles form the center of Isaac will be felt before the center makes landfall. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 8 inches are expected in some areas before Isaac crosses and makes his way into the Western Caribbean Thursday morning.
* A 'Hurricane Watch' is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona Westward to the Haiti Dominican Republic Southern Border.
* A Tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe and St. Martin and surrounding Islands as well as St. Kits, Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
* A tropical Storm 'Watch' is in effect for the North Coast of the Dominican Republic from Haiti Dominican Republic Northern Border Eastward to North of Isla Saona.
* Interest in and around these areas including Hispaniola and Cuba should be monitoring the progress of Isaac.
* I urge interest in Florida, the Eastern Gulf coastal areas and the East coast to remain vigilante as the forecast track of Isaac remains uncertain at this time.
Perspectivas De Las Condiciones Del Tiempo En El Tropico -
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/SJUTWOSP+shtml/220625.shtml
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems
I continue to watch [Invest 96L] in the East Atlantic about 650 Miles West-Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave has winds last reported of 30mph and is located at 11.5North 34.5West moving to the West-Northwest. As of 2:00 AM EDT 96L has a 90 percent chance of becoming our next depression or storm 'later today'. Once named it will be Joyce. The forecast track at this time remains uncertain. Next update from NHC on this system 8:00 AM EDT
I'll be keeping a close watch on both of these systems in the days to come.
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Tropical Depression Nine forms [#TD9]; #TD10 on his tail ?
We now have Tropical Depression Nine in the Atlantic. It is still early and the forecast track remains uncertain at this time as to possible impacts on the U.S. mainland. We do know that TD Nine is headed for the Lesser Antillies and the Caribbean. We also know TD Nine is expected to strengthen and become Tropical Storm Isaac Today. Once passed the Lesser Antilles and in the Caribbean, it is expected Tropical Storm Isaac will become Hurricane Isaac sometime Thursday.
As of 8:00 AM EDT TD 9 has winds of 35 MPH and is headed West at 20 mph. Located at 15.1North 51.8West or about 645 miles East of Guadeloupe. TD 9 is expected to continue moving west for the next couple of days with a slight turn Northwestward there after.
Here's the latest computer model plot for what is Tropical Depression Nine at 8:00 Am EDT August 21, 2012. You can find all information on this System on the Tropical Weather Page. Information updated Automatically.
Hot on the heals of TD Nine is Invest 96L. As of 8:00 AM EDT this morning, this tropical wave has a 60% chance of further development. Will it become Tropical Depression Ten ? Will it become Tropical Storm Joyce ? Time will tell. I'm also watching 95L off the coast of Mexico in the Gulf. This system should meander for a few days before dissipating. I keep an eye on it just in case.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems
Here's the latest computer model for 96L as of 8:00 AM EDT August 12, 2012.
Here's something I Tweeted last night. Figured I would post it here for kicks.
As of 8:00 AM EDT TD 9 has winds of 35 MPH and is headed West at 20 mph. Located at 15.1North 51.8West or about 645 miles East of Guadeloupe. TD 9 is expected to continue moving west for the next couple of days with a slight turn Northwestward there after.
Here's the latest computer model plot for what is Tropical Depression Nine at 8:00 Am EDT August 21, 2012. You can find all information on this System on the Tropical Weather Page. Information updated Automatically.
Hot on the heals of TD Nine is Invest 96L. As of 8:00 AM EDT this morning, this tropical wave has a 60% chance of further development. Will it become Tropical Depression Ten ? Will it become Tropical Storm Joyce ? Time will tell. I'm also watching 95L off the coast of Mexico in the Gulf. This system should meander for a few days before dissipating. I keep an eye on it just in case.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems
Here's the latest computer model for 96L as of 8:00 AM EDT August 12, 2012.
Here's something I Tweeted last night. Figured I would post it here for kicks.
I do wonder if
— Ed Quinn (@CataulaGaWX) August 21, 2012#96L will become Isaac before#94L . If not I think Joyce will be riding the tail of Isaac soon. twitter.com/CataulaGaWX/st…
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