#Snow Georgia / Alabama Saturday February 16 2013 #gawx #alwx

As I have been mentioning most of this week on my Facebook page [ www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather ], there may be snow in the area. This morning my thinking has not changed. In FACT .. the National Weather Service in Peachtree city is now coming on board toward my thinking from past days. They at this time, 5 AM EST Friday February 15 2013 mention a bullseye of Snow of OVER 1 inch, south of Columbus by 1 PM EST Saturday afternoon. They also say less than 1 inch for areas between Atlanta and Columbus around 10 AM EST Saturday Morning. Timing and placement of this is not exact, so I will be monitoring things to narrow it down and posting it on Facebook and tweeting [ twitter.com/cataulagawx ] it when it snows at my location.. Right now I would say between 6 AM and 12 PM Saturday.

As mentioned above and from looking at data, there is indeed a sweet spot or bullseye in central Georgia. Columbus looks to get around 1 inch, and Macon about 2 inches if numerical data from the NAM-06z run is correct.




Athens Georgia should get under 1 inch and Atlanta just over a Tenth of an inch. There isn't much to go around but there could be more or less depending on how things set up and where. It remains to be seen if snow will accumulate on the ground, it will on cars and other surfaces.

Here's a few images showing 06z NAM profiles and Skew-t's for Columbus, Macon, Athens and Atlanta Georgia.










I first mentiond this on Facebook, on February 8 2013 and on this blog February 11 2013 here Possible Snow for Georgia and Alabama February 16/17

Late week system - Severe Weather undetermined Georgia / Alabama

Posted 3:17 PM EST 1/6/2013

Next system looks to come in Thursday and Friday but should see some rain showers before and after. Weather models continue to disagree on timing and strength of system for the local area but as mentioned, at a minimum we should have some thunder in the area.

The GFS is faster with the system and takes it quicker to the north along with the energy associated with it, while the ECMWF is slower and farther south bringing it into the area on Friday.

Still undetermined at this time if there will be any severe weather with this in our area, but will go ahead and 'mention again' the possibility of 'isolated severe' due to the environment associated with this system.

I'll keep watching this and will post again when I know more and closer to weeks end.

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Hurricane #Rafael - October 16 2012

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

As expected Rafael became a Hurricane yesterday at 6:45 PM AST with winds near 75 mph as reported by hurricane hunter aircraft. Rafael is the 17^th named storm of the 2012 hurricane season and the 9^th hurricane. The 2012 hurricane season ends on November 30^th so there's plenty of time for a few more storms.

Currently Rafael is a category 1 hurricane located about 195 miles south of Bermuda at 29.5North 64.4West with winds of 85 mph, heading rapidly at 23 mph toward the North-northeast with a central pressure of 969 mb. Hurricane force winds extend outward 35 miles and tropical storm force winds out 205 miles from the center. The center of Rafael will pass to the east of Bermuda late this evening with a turn toward the northeast along with an increase in forward speed later today or tomorrow. Rafael should begin to weaken due to strong wind shear upward of 40 kt and continue weakening as he moves into colder water becoming extratropical by Thursday.

Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches and tropical storm winds are expected across Bermuda this afternoon and evening. Life threatening surf and rip currents are anticipated along areas of Bermuda and may also impact areas along the U.S. east coast in the next couple of days.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Tropical Storm #Rafael / Tropical Depression #Patty - October 13 2012

**Bermuda should monitor Rafael closely.**

TD Patty: As mentioned in previous posts Patty is expected to become a remnant low at some time today. Patty has winds of 35 mph and is located about 280 miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas 25.5North 71.9West with a central pressure of 1008 mb. Currently Patty is stationary. Movement to the west-southwest is anticipated which should continue until she dissipates. 'No Watches or Warnings in effect'.

TS Rafael: Rafael is the 17th named system of the 2012 hurricane season. Currently located about 165 miles south-southeast of St. Croix in the Virgin Islands 15.5North 63.9West with winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1006 mb, Rafael is moving at about 9 mph toward the northwest. A turn toward the north-northwest is anticipated later today and this will bring the center of Rafael close or over the Virgin Islands. During this time some strengthening is expected. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles at this time to the southeast side of the center. Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands and are possible around Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques tonight, and Sunday October 14. **Bermuda should monitor Rafael closely.**

Watches and Warnings:

* A Tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Kits, Nevis, Antigua, Montserrat, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Guadeloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante, and Martinique.

* A tropical Storm 'Watch' is in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Tropical Storm #Nadine - 14th named storm of 2012 Hurricane Season - 9/11/12

Tropical Storm Nadine has formed in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and posses No threat to the U.S. or any land mass at this time. Forecast for Nadine take her in a similar path as what was Hurricane Michael which is now post tropical as is Leslie.

Currently [11:00 PM EDT 9/11/12] Nadine has winds of 40 mph and is moving West-Northwest at 15 mph with a central pressure of 1004 MB, and is located at 17.8 north 45.2 west or about 1735 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Nadine could become a hurricane in the next 2 days.

You can find all the information on this Storm including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Tropical Storm #Isaac 7:00 AM EDT 8/23/12

Last night I mentioned on my personal twitter account that it looked like Tropical Storm Isaac was jogging west-southwest on Satellite imagery.

Interesting, Satellite shows #Isaac jog to west southwest 11:15 PM EDT last night. ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl…
— Ed Quinn (@CataulaGaWX) August 23, 2012

Seems I was right after looking over some data this morning. Also while reviewing data this morning, he appears to continue jogging in this direction. So what is causing this ? A couple of things. We have a Bermuda High in the Atlantic rotating clockwise pushing from the Northeast to the southwest which is to the Northeast of Isaac, and a tropical upper tropospheric trough [Tutt] rotating counter clockwise that was to the west of Isaac. In this case the Bermuda high is stronger and helping to steer Isaac West-Southwest. You can see this on the Image below, a surface chart showing these features which I've highlighted for you.

What this means if it continues is, Isaac will likely for the short term delay interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba to his west and have time to grow and become stronger while continuing too transverse the warm waters of the Caribbean. Should this occur Isaac stands a greater chance of surviving and emerging a bit stronger than he would, once he does cross those Islands.

As for Isaac .. he is currently farther south situated at 15.3North 64.0West and is weaker with winds of 40mph this morning. He is moving to the West at 12mph and has a central pressure of 1004mb.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems



Computer models are all over the place at last look as they try to get a handle on him. So ... at this time the future track of Isaac remains uncertain for this reason and some influence from what was mentioned above. Florida, the Eastern Gulf coast and the Southeast Atlantic coastal states should continue to monitor Isaac. I think by Friday I should have a better idea where Isaac is going as far as exact location.

Several National Weather Service offices across the southeast will be releasing radiosondes [weather balloons] into the atmosphere every six hours beginning Friday to get a better handle on the trough over the southeast and the Bermuda high in the Atlantic. Until they and I have a better handle on things, I'm sticking with my previous thoughts of this storm going up the spine of Florida or there about and heading to the East Northeast. I am not one to chase computer models when they shift the track every run.

#Ernesto to make 2nd landfall Today / Invest 92L

Ernesto about to cross the coast of Mexico near Coatzacoalcos.

Currently Ernesto is located at 18.3 North 94.0 West skirting along the Southern coast of the Bay of Campeche with sustained winds of 70 MPH and Higher Gusts, moving West-Southwest at 13 MPH and this direction of travel is expected to continue Today with a slight decrease in forward motion. The central Pressure is 993 MB or 29.32 inches. Ernesto is about 40 Miles East-Northeast of Coatzacoalcos Mexico.

'If Ernesto continues his current track' he looks to make landfall in the Los Tuxtlas area of south-central Mexico with the cities of Santiago Tuxtla, San Andres Tuxtla and Catemaco in his path. Tropical storm winds extend outward 140 miles from the center and will continue to spread westward ahead of the storm today. Hurricane conditions are still possible within the Warning area this morning.

Watches and Warnings

* A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Veracruz to Chilitepec Mexico.
* A Hurricane Watch is in effect North of Veracruz to Barra De Nautla.
* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect North of Veracruz to Barra De Nautla, and East of Chilitepec to Campeche.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected with isolated areas of 15 inches in and around Tabasco, Veracruz, Puebla, and Northern Oaxaca through Friday causing life threatening Flash Flooding and Mudslides over higher terrain.

Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet above Normal Tide level is anticipated in the Warning area and surrounding coastal areas of the Gulf coast of Mexico. Large and Dangerous waves near the coast will accompany the tidal surge.

A couple Satellite images of Ernesto as of 7:45 AM EDT TODAY

Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.

 Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto



I'm still watching an area of interest in the south-central Atlantic about 1000 miles west of the southern Cape Verde Islands. Currently designated Invest 92L and moving Westward about 15 MPH this tropical wave has a 70% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression in the next day or so, maybe Gordon. I'm also watching another Tropical Wave exit the continent of Africa for possible development in the coming days as well.

Here's the current Spaghetti Model for Invest 92L as of 8 AM EDT 08/09/12

Here's a Satellite view of the Tropical Wave coming off the coast of Africa as of 9 AM EDT 08/09/12.

#Ernesto expected to make landfall in or around Belize / TD #Florence 8/06/2012

First and foremost Watches and Warnings...

INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS OF 8:00 AM EDT...

* A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS / NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

* A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

* A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...GRAND CAYMAN...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


Tropical Storm Ernesto no threat to the U.S.....Ernesto looking stronger on satellite at this hour with deep convection beginning to build around the center and on his eastern side. Currently Ernesto is located at 15.2 North 81.0 West about 145 Miles EAST of Cabo Gracias A Dios on the Honduras / Nicaragua border and has sustained winds of 50 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West at 12 MPH. The central Pressure is 1003 MB or 29.62 inches. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.

Ernesto is expected to slowly strengthen in the short term. In the long term over the next 36 to 48 hours Models show Ernesto 'approaching' Hurricane Strength and make a turn to the West-Northwest. Ernesto is 'still' expected to make landfall in or around Belize along the southern Yucatan. From there Ernesto will cross the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge in the Bay of Campeche and head toward Mexico. Timing and strength of Ernesto at landfall remain uncertain but feel the first landfall in or around Belize will occur in about 48 hours and a landfall in 'Central or South Mexico' in about 90 hours.

Here's the most recent Model Plot for Tropical Storm Ernesto

Florence NOW a Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression Florence continues to weaken at this hour and is expected to further weaken in the coming days becoming a remnant Low in the next few days. Currently Florence is located at 16.2 North 38.8 West about 1610 Miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands and has sustained winds of 35 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West at 12 MPH. The central Pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 inches. We'll keep an eye on her over the next few days.

Update 11:00 AM EDT - FLORENCE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...

LOCATION...16.4N 40.2W
ABOUT 1515 MI...2440 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

This will be the last Update on Florence.

Here's the most recent Model Plot for Tropical Depression Florence

Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.

 Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Depression Florence

Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Depression Six / Florida Disturbance 91L

UPDATE 7:48 AM 8/4/2012 Tropical Depression Six is NOW Tropical Storm Florence

Tropical Storm Ernesto

Ernesto continues his Westward track at this hour. As of 11 PM EDT Ernesto has winds of 50 MPH and is Moving West at 18 MPH with a Central Pressure of 1003 MB / 29.62 inches. The current position of Ernesto is 13.9 North 65.6 West for those plotting along.

At this time Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to Maintain his current track, forward speed and intensity for the next couple of days. On his current track Ernesto will move through the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea and approach Jamaica on Sunday. Interests in Jamaica should monitor Ernesto closely. A 'Tropical Storm Watch may be Issued' for areas of Jamaica on Saturday.

Forecast models show Ernesto entering the southeast Gulf of Mexico Monday or Tuesday possibly becoming a Weak Hurricane before making landfall or skirting the Yucatan Peninsula. 'Much remains uncertain at this time' if in fact Ernesto will maintain the westward track and intensity during this time and into the coming week. We urge all along the U.S. Gulf Coast to remain vigilant!

Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Storm Ernesto as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.

######

Tropical Depression SIX UPDATE 7:48 AM 8/4/2012 Tropical Depression Six is NOW Tropical Storm Florence

Farther out in the Atlantic offshore of Africa about 240 Miles West Southwest of the Southern most Cape Verde Islands we have newly developed 'Tropical Depression SIX'. Currently Located at 13.8 North 27.8 West .. TD6 has sustained winds around 35 MPH with gusts around 45 MPH and is moving to the West Northwest at about 16 MPH. The central pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 Inches
Currently this Well defined Low Pressure Area has gotten it's act together, however drier air and cooler waters may inhibit further development in the coming days as it moves West Northwestward. I'll be watching this system in the days ahead.

Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.

######

Florida Disturbance 91L

Closer to home we have a disturbance off the Southeast Coast of Florida. Currently designated Invest 91L. Computer models suggest this disturbance will move North / Northeast in the coming days and interact with land late Saturday or Sunday somewhere along South Florida possibly crossing and re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico. 'Much remains uncertain' if this disturbance has enough time to become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm due to it's current location adjacent to the Florida Peninsula. One thing is certain, it will be a rainmaker.

Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 2 PM EDT August 3 2012.

######

Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.

 Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Storm Florence

97L Tropical Wave / Disturbance Gulf of Mexico / Remnants of Post Tropical Storm Debby

Update: All ares of interest have dissipated. For an automatically updated Tropical Weather Outlook, see the Tropical Weather Page

Original Post below

I've been watching an area of disturbed weather currently designated 97L for the past few days way out in the Atlantic. While it's a bit early for action down that way from my experience, this hurricane season as a whole at this point has been early . I'll keep an eye on this area currently designated 97L in the coming days for further possible development.

As of 8:00 AM EDT June 30 2012:

Currently designated 97L, this area of activity has a 10 percent chance of becoming a Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours. Currently located about 600 miles East of the Windward Islands, Maximum sustained winds are 29 MPH extending out about 52 miles. Central pressure was 1013MB. See image below for current computer models tracks.

An area of disturbed weather in the Western Gulf of Mexico continues to produce clouds and some thunderstorms as it moves Northward around 5 to 10 miles per hour. This area has near 0 percent chance of becoming a Tropical storm in the next 48 hours.

The remnants of post tropical storm Debby continue to show shower activity. This area has a near 0 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours as conditions remain unfavorable. Located about 575 miles South of Halifax Nova Scotia, the remnants are moving East Northeastward at about 20 MPH.

Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico - June 23 2012

Hurricane Hunter aircraft sampled winds of 60.9 MPH in the east quadrant around Tropical Storm Debby.

Here's the latest computer model plots showing where Tropical Storm Debby may go. It is still early so this will change in the coming days.

I'll have the Tropical Weather Page updated later with current information from various sources. So be sure and check back often.

Here's the 5 PM EDT / 4 PM CDT release from the National Hurricane Center

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

Invest 96L in Gulf of Mexico more organized / Tropical Storm Chris still chugging along

70% Chance in Gulf now designated 'Invest 96L', but we'll still call her 'Chance'. Once named, she'll be called either Tropical Depression Debby or Tropical Storm Debby !

At this time we are giving this area a good probability of becoming a named storm within the next 24 hours. A low has been located near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with a central pressure of 1007 MB and surface pressure is falling across the broad area. The National Hurricane center is giving this area a 'HIGH' chance of further development, possibly becoming a Tropical Depression in the next day or so.

Uncertainty Remains ...

Models continue to disagree on the track of Chance. The more reliable tropical models indicate a potential landfall between Panama City and Tampa. Other models take Chance to Texas and North Mexico, while yet others stall her out in the central Gulf of Mexico. The SHIPS Model [Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme] late yesterday 6/21 showed a peak wind speed of 63 MPH, making this a strong Tropical Storm at Landfall.

I must remind you, This is not set in stone. Other factors including possible interaction with land in or around the Yucatan and a frontal passages moving through the area will also be factors in determining track and strength. ALL Areas along the Gulf Coast should remain alert at this time. Do you have a plan on what to do before, during, and after a tropical storm / hurricane ??

++++++

What was Hurricane Chris earlier yesterday 6/21, maxed out with winds of 75 MPH and is now a Tropical Storm once again. Currently Chris has max winds of 65 MPH, is moving north at about 14 MPH, has a central pressure of 987 MB / 29.15 INCHES, and is about 540 Miles East/Southeast of of Cape Race Newfoundland. Chris surprised everyone including the NHC.

Data suggesting colder temperatures Tuesday January 3 2012

Data suggesting slightly colder temperatures Tuesday January 3 2012 than what is currently forecast. At this time it's looking like Columbus might make it to 40° with outlying areas colder. I'm looking for a temp at this time of a high around 37° on Tuesday here at the homestead; might not make that. There will also be some wind, which will make it feel even colder. At the warmest point on Tuesday, it may feel like 32° with the wind chill factored in of around 15 MPH. That will vary depending on temp and wind speeds.

The short range NAM model is colder than the GFS at this time.
Click image to enlarge

North Georgia / Alabama winter precipation November 28-29 2011

Final Update: 10:00 PM 11/30/2011

The event was much as I anticipated.

Locally, reports of rain snow mix, snow showers in areas of north Harris county. Snow in north Georgia and Alabama 1-2 inches and less.

End
____________

Update: 9:00 AM EST 11/27/2011

I'm not going to change anything from previous [Below] at this time. Still looking at a chance of sleet mixing in with rain at times or a snow flurry or two in the local area.

Best chance of seeing any winter precipitation, early Tuesday.

Things could change between now and Tuesday and likely will with such a dynamic system as this. Will we get a surprise ?

End
____________

An interesting set up coming this week. I toyed with this over on my Facebook page earlier this week.

Northern Alabama and Northern Georgia may see some accumulating winter precipitation.

Pretty sure from looking at models, any precipitation that falls in central Georgia Saturday into Sunday will be liquid. Models vary Late Sunday night into Monday and further into the coming week.

Should the slower and deepening model solutions come into play, we may be looking at some frozen type of precipitation in the northern tiers of Alabama and Georgia Monday night, and with enough wrap around moisture from the cut off low which is expected to form may see wintery precipitation into Tuesday morning.

I'm not looking for anything to fall in the frozen category in the local area. Should the cut off low position itself further south, slow to a crawl and allow the colder air further south to interact with abundant moisture which is expected, there is a slim chance of seeing some flurries or sleet in the local area. If anything frozen does fall locally accumulation is not expected as ground temperatures are still quite warm. This all depends on the specific track of the low in question.

On a wetter note: We will be picking up some much needed rain if nothing else. Winter doesn't officially begin until December 22. The first week of December looks interesting as well.

I'll have an update Saturday or Sunday at the latest.

Here's some model runs in no particular order:

18zgfs

15zsref

18znam

12zeuro

Potential Severe Weather Thanksgiving Week 2011

Disclaimer: I'm not trying to scare anyone, especially in light of the severe weather we had in the local area last week. I am only giving you a heads up as to what is expected to occur in areas west of us, and could possibly move into the local area. I am NOT a Professional Meteorologists

While the level of severe weather is yet to be determined for the local area, areas to our west may be in line for strong storms and possibly a few tornadoes.

Much like the weather pattern of last week where we saw tornadoes pass through the local area, the same setup is once again expected to occur.

At this time [10:17 PM 11/20/2011] I'm not looking for anything more than a few thunderstorms in the local area, as the frontal boundary and associated surface low should remain to our west. Another reason is due to the system moving through the local area during late evening and overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday. This should allow it to weaken, However this could change as the timing of the system is still in question.

Here's the current graphic from the Storm Prediction Center for 7 AM EST Tuesday 11/22 through 7 AM EST Wednesday 11/23. Pay attention to the area outlined in Brown. The local area is included in this 5% area for potentially severe weather.

Why do I point out the above 5% potential ? Because on Wednesday November 16, the day the tornado passed through Harris County, the local area was also included in a 5% severe probability, seen below.

This is not saying we will see any severe weather this week, only that the potential is there at this time.


In the lead up to the severe weather and tornadoes of November 16, I gave you a heads up on November 15. Also in that post was mentioned, "THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA COMES AROUND THANKSGIVING.". Well, after this system in mid week passes by, the next one will come in and move through the local area over the coming weekend bringing another shot of rain. It's to early to tell at this time if any severe weather will accompany it.

Subtropical Storm SEAN

Tropical Weather Page updated. Check for the latest advisories and graphics on Subtropical Storm SEAN.

Subtropical Storm SEAN is not expected to have any impact on the east coast at this time. Subtropical Storm SEAN is the 18^th named storm of the 2011 hurricane season.

Most recent info via National Hurricane Center

AT 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 69.4W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

Named Tropical Systems in 2011

• Tropical Storm Arlene
• Tropical Storm Bret
• Tropical Storm Cindy
• Tropical Storm Don
• Tropical Storm Emily
• Tropical Storm Franklin
• Tropical Storm Gert
• Tropical Storm Harvey
• Hurricane Irene
• Tropical Storm Jose
• Hurricane Katia
• Tropical Storm Lee
• Hurricane Maria
• Tropical Storm Nate
• Hurricane Ophelia
• Hurricane Philippe
• Hurricane Rina
• Subtropical Storm SEAN

Map of Named Tropical Systems in 2011

Hurricane Rina forecast to be Major Hurricane

From a system yet to fully develop this past Friday, to a Hurricane today.

Rina intensified rather quickly in the warm waters of the Caribbean. At 5 PM EDT on Sunday she was a mere Tropical Depression. Later Sunday night at 11 PM EDT Rina became a Tropical Storm with max sustained winds of 40 MPH. 15 hours later on Monday Rina becomes a Hurricane with max sustained winds of 75 MPH as of 2 PM EDT.

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 PM EDT Monday October 24 2011:

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

Check the Tropical Weather Page for Graphics, Computer Models, and more information.

Tropics still active - Caribbean Invest 96 - October 21 2011

Been fairly quite for the most part as far as any major tropical systems / storms. We've had a couple disturbances form in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean in the past month and a half move up into the southeast of the U.S., a low pressure system that moved through southeast Georgia and Tropical Storm Lee which spawned some severe weather and Tornadoes in the area.

The Atlantic should remain relatively quite but a system forming is not out of the question. This time of year towards the end of hurricane season, the main focus for tropical development is in the Caribbean where the waters are still quite warm. Computer models want to develop this system. Steering patterns seem to indicate a track northwest to north-northwest the next few days at a slow pace. The longer this stays out over open waters the better the chances for further development. I'll keep my eye on this invest and see if it develops into something in the coming days.

Here are a couple computer model graphics showing were it might go, should it develop.

And the latest on this via the National Hurricane Center

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Should this system develop, I'll have up dated and up to date information on the Tropical Weather Page.