#Isaac still expected to become #Hurricane make #Landfall today - August 28 2012

Tropical storm Isaac is still expected to become a minimal hurricane before making landfall along the Gulf coast in the Louisiana Mississippi Alabama area.

Right now Isaac is still a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph and continues moving to the Northwest at 12 mph. At 4:00 am CDT Isaac was about 125 miles south-southeast of the Mississippi River and about 205 miles south-southeast of Biloxi Mississippi. Isaac is expected to strengthen in the hours before landfall and will as mentioned be a minimal hurricane with anticipated winds of maximum 85 mph, there will be higher gusts. There will likely be a few Tornadoes as well.

The Eyewall of Isaac this morning..

Isaac is large and his winds will be felt before the center makes landfall.tropical storm force winds extend outward of 205 miles for Isaac's center. Heavy rains and high storm surge will also become problematic causing flooding with storm surge of:

6-12 FEET in Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi
4-8 FEET in Alabama
3-6 FEET in South Central Louisiana
3-6 FEET in Florida Panhandle
1-3 FEET in Florida west coast including Apalachee Bay

Rainfall Potential for the area:

You can find all the information on Isaac including Graphics.. and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Tropical Storm Isaac soon to be a Hurricane - 10:30 AM EDT 8/25/12

Isaac now has winds of 65 MPH with higher gusts and is now moving West-Northwest at 20 MPH. Currently located at 23.5 North 80.0 West or about 135 Miles East-Southeast of Key West Florida and 155 Miles East of Havana Cuba. Central pressure now 995 MB. Isaac is expected to be or Near Hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Keys sometime today. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward 205 miles from Isaac's Center.

Isaac will impact the Florida Keys in the near term and is expected to strengthen as he continues tracking northwest into the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The current track of Isaac has shifted to the West at this time from previously and will shift [flip flop] until landfall which is still uncertain somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Once well into the Gulf of Mexico, computer models will get a better handle on Isaac and withing the next day or so we should will have a much better idea of where he is headed.

Radar from Key West Florida 10:16 AM EDT

* A Hurricane 'Warning' is in effect for the Florida Keys, Dry Tortunas, the West coast of FL from Bonita Beach Southward to Ocean Reef, Florida Bay and the Andros Islands in the Bahamas. * A Hurricane 'Watch' is in effect for the FL East coast from Golden Beach Southward to Ocean Reef, the Mouth of the Mississippi River 'NOT INCLUDING METRO NEW ORLEANS' to Indian Pass Florida.

You can find all the information on Isaac including Graphics on the Tropical Weather Page here .. and more ..

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available



You can find myself along with many others posting important information which is being constantly updated here - For rapid updates on Tropical Storm Isaac From 20 forecasters Covering 9 states along with professional and tropical meteorologist http://www.facebook.com/fftropicalzone , So hit the link and while you're there give the page a like.

Tropical Storm #Isaac 7:00 AM EDT 8/23/12

Last night I mentioned on my personal twitter account that it looked like Tropical Storm Isaac was jogging west-southwest on Satellite imagery.

Interesting, Satellite shows #Isaac jog to west southwest 11:15 PM EDT last night. ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl…
— Ed Quinn (@CataulaGaWX) August 23, 2012

Seems I was right after looking over some data this morning. Also while reviewing data this morning, he appears to continue jogging in this direction. So what is causing this ? A couple of things. We have a Bermuda High in the Atlantic rotating clockwise pushing from the Northeast to the southwest which is to the Northeast of Isaac, and a tropical upper tropospheric trough [Tutt] rotating counter clockwise that was to the west of Isaac. In this case the Bermuda high is stronger and helping to steer Isaac West-Southwest. You can see this on the Image below, a surface chart showing these features which I've highlighted for you.

What this means if it continues is, Isaac will likely for the short term delay interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba to his west and have time to grow and become stronger while continuing too transverse the warm waters of the Caribbean. Should this occur Isaac stands a greater chance of surviving and emerging a bit stronger than he would, once he does cross those Islands.

As for Isaac .. he is currently farther south situated at 15.3North 64.0West and is weaker with winds of 40mph this morning. He is moving to the West at 12mph and has a central pressure of 1004mb.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems



Computer models are all over the place at last look as they try to get a handle on him. So ... at this time the future track of Isaac remains uncertain for this reason and some influence from what was mentioned above. Florida, the Eastern Gulf coast and the Southeast Atlantic coastal states should continue to monitor Isaac. I think by Friday I should have a better idea where Isaac is going as far as exact location.

Several National Weather Service offices across the southeast will be releasing radiosondes [weather balloons] into the atmosphere every six hours beginning Friday to get a better handle on the trough over the southeast and the Bermuda high in the Atlantic. Until they and I have a better handle on things, I'm sticking with my previous thoughts of this storm going up the spine of Florida or there about and heading to the East Northeast. I am not one to chase computer models when they shift the track every run.

Tropical Storm #Ernesto expected to become a Hurricane TONIGHT

Update 11 AM EDT ERNESTO STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT

See Also - Ernesto expected to make landfall in or around Belize

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 80.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS / NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS / GUATEMALA BORDER NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.

 Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto / Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence

#Ernesto expected to make landfall in or around Belize / TD #Florence 8/06/2012

First and foremost Watches and Warnings...

INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS OF 8:00 AM EDT...

* A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS / NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

* A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

* A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...GRAND CAYMAN...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


Tropical Storm Ernesto no threat to the U.S.....Ernesto looking stronger on satellite at this hour with deep convection beginning to build around the center and on his eastern side. Currently Ernesto is located at 15.2 North 81.0 West about 145 Miles EAST of Cabo Gracias A Dios on the Honduras / Nicaragua border and has sustained winds of 50 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West at 12 MPH. The central Pressure is 1003 MB or 29.62 inches. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.

Ernesto is expected to slowly strengthen in the short term. In the long term over the next 36 to 48 hours Models show Ernesto 'approaching' Hurricane Strength and make a turn to the West-Northwest. Ernesto is 'still' expected to make landfall in or around Belize along the southern Yucatan. From there Ernesto will cross the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge in the Bay of Campeche and head toward Mexico. Timing and strength of Ernesto at landfall remain uncertain but feel the first landfall in or around Belize will occur in about 48 hours and a landfall in 'Central or South Mexico' in about 90 hours.

Here's the most recent Model Plot for Tropical Storm Ernesto

Florence NOW a Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression Florence continues to weaken at this hour and is expected to further weaken in the coming days becoming a remnant Low in the next few days. Currently Florence is located at 16.2 North 38.8 West about 1610 Miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands and has sustained winds of 35 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West at 12 MPH. The central Pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 inches. We'll keep an eye on her over the next few days.

Update 11:00 AM EDT - FLORENCE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...

LOCATION...16.4N 40.2W
ABOUT 1515 MI...2440 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

This will be the last Update on Florence.

Here's the most recent Model Plot for Tropical Depression Florence

Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.

 Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Depression Florence

Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Depression Six / Florida Disturbance 91L

UPDATE 7:48 AM 8/4/2012 Tropical Depression Six is NOW Tropical Storm Florence

Tropical Storm Ernesto

Ernesto continues his Westward track at this hour. As of 11 PM EDT Ernesto has winds of 50 MPH and is Moving West at 18 MPH with a Central Pressure of 1003 MB / 29.62 inches. The current position of Ernesto is 13.9 North 65.6 West for those plotting along.

At this time Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to Maintain his current track, forward speed and intensity for the next couple of days. On his current track Ernesto will move through the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea and approach Jamaica on Sunday. Interests in Jamaica should monitor Ernesto closely. A 'Tropical Storm Watch may be Issued' for areas of Jamaica on Saturday.

Forecast models show Ernesto entering the southeast Gulf of Mexico Monday or Tuesday possibly becoming a Weak Hurricane before making landfall or skirting the Yucatan Peninsula. 'Much remains uncertain at this time' if in fact Ernesto will maintain the westward track and intensity during this time and into the coming week. We urge all along the U.S. Gulf Coast to remain vigilant!

Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Storm Ernesto as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.

######

Tropical Depression SIX UPDATE 7:48 AM 8/4/2012 Tropical Depression Six is NOW Tropical Storm Florence

Farther out in the Atlantic offshore of Africa about 240 Miles West Southwest of the Southern most Cape Verde Islands we have newly developed 'Tropical Depression SIX'. Currently Located at 13.8 North 27.8 West .. TD6 has sustained winds around 35 MPH with gusts around 45 MPH and is moving to the West Northwest at about 16 MPH. The central pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 Inches
Currently this Well defined Low Pressure Area has gotten it's act together, however drier air and cooler waters may inhibit further development in the coming days as it moves West Northwestward. I'll be watching this system in the days ahead.

Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.

######

Florida Disturbance 91L

Closer to home we have a disturbance off the Southeast Coast of Florida. Currently designated Invest 91L. Computer models suggest this disturbance will move North / Northeast in the coming days and interact with land late Saturday or Sunday somewhere along South Florida possibly crossing and re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico. 'Much remains uncertain' if this disturbance has enough time to become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm due to it's current location adjacent to the Florida Peninsula. One thing is certain, it will be a rainmaker.

Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 2 PM EDT August 3 2012.

######

Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.

 Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Storm Florence

97L Tropical Wave / Disturbance Gulf of Mexico / Remnants of Post Tropical Storm Debby

Update: All ares of interest have dissipated. For an automatically updated Tropical Weather Outlook, see the Tropical Weather Page

Original Post below

I've been watching an area of disturbed weather currently designated 97L for the past few days way out in the Atlantic. While it's a bit early for action down that way from my experience, this hurricane season as a whole at this point has been early . I'll keep an eye on this area currently designated 97L in the coming days for further possible development.

As of 8:00 AM EDT June 30 2012:

Currently designated 97L, this area of activity has a 10 percent chance of becoming a Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours. Currently located about 600 miles East of the Windward Islands, Maximum sustained winds are 29 MPH extending out about 52 miles. Central pressure was 1013MB. See image below for current computer models tracks.

An area of disturbed weather in the Western Gulf of Mexico continues to produce clouds and some thunderstorms as it moves Northward around 5 to 10 miles per hour. This area has near 0 percent chance of becoming a Tropical storm in the next 48 hours.

The remnants of post tropical storm Debby continue to show shower activity. This area has a near 0 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours as conditions remain unfavorable. Located about 575 miles South of Halifax Nova Scotia, the remnants are moving East Northeastward at about 20 MPH.

Tropical Storm #Debby on the move again / Forecast Track - June 26 2012

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains in Effect from Mexico Beach southward to Englewood.

Debby continues moving eastward at this hour while maintaining her strength. Heavy Rains are expected to continue in Northern Florida and Southeast Georgia.

Currently Debby is centered about 70 Miles West of Cedar Key Florida [ Levy County ] and moving East around 3 MPH. Sustained winds this hour are still 40 MPH. Tropical Storm Force winds extend out about 240 Miles from her center located at Latitude 28.9 NORTH Longitude 84.2 WEST, and a central pressure of 993 MB or 29.32 Inches.

The Forecast Track for Debby continues to move her to the East and Northeast making Landfall in the Big Bend area around Cedar Key Florida. Time of landfall is still uncertain at this time. Debby will still be a Tropical Storm while making Landfall. After making landfall Debby is expected to loose some of her strength while over land, and become a Tropical Depression. Debby is then expected to continue to the Northeast reemerging in the Atlantic and may once again become a Tropical Storm. The re-intensification of Debby remains uncertain at this time due to her interaction with land. We'll keep a close eye on Debby!

Current Forecast Track as of 11 Am EDT

For more information on Debby and other Tropical weather, see the Tropical Weather Page


While winds with Debby have had minimal impacts, the big story is the rains associated with her. Numerous reports of Flooding and Flash Flooding have been reported in North Florida due to the rains and storm surge. The hardest hit area at this time is Wakulla County where the Sopchoppy River near Sopchoppy Florida is expected to crest at 41 feet; Flood stage is 28 feet. The National Weather Service in Tallahassee at this time reports the Sopchoppy River Gauge has Failed due to impacts from debris. Last report received was at 9:00 PM EDT Last night with a level of 31.41 Feet. Surrounding counties in the area also affected are Southeast Liberty county, North Franklin county, South Leon county, South Jefferson county, and Northwest Taylor county. See Tropical Storm #Debby Flooding / Road Closures For images.

Rainfall totals form 3 and 7 AM EDT this morning June 26 2012

This is from 8 Am This morning

At 4:00 AM EDT The National Weather Service in Tallahassee issued a Flood Warning for Urban areas and small Streams in the following Locations until 10:00 AM EDT: JEFFERSON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...SOUTH CENTRAL LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...MADISON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN FLORIDA...WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

At 5:40 AM EDT The National Weather Service in Jacksonville issued the following Statement: FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...GEORGIA...ST MARY`S RIVER AT MACCLENNY AFFECTING BAKER...NASSAU...CAMDEN ANDCHARLTON COUNTIES...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...SUWANNEE RIVER AT WHITE SPRINGS AFFECTING COLUMBIA AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST....MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

You can find information on Florida Road closures here - Florida's Statewide 511 Website

Tropical Storm #Debby Flooding / Road Closures

4:00 AM EDT - 3:00 AM CDT 6/26/2012

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM MEXICO BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

Debby is nearly stationary at this time, continuing to pour heavy amounts of rain in already flooded areas of North Florida. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION, as Debby will remain in the area for a few more days dropping more rain on already flooded areas. At this time the area hardest hit is Wakulla county, Southeast Liberty county, North Franklin county, South Leon county, South Jefferson county, and Northwest Taylor county.

Extreme flooding concerns at this hour along the Sopchoppy River near Sopchoppy Florida where it is expected to crest at 41 feet, Flood stage is 28 feet. At 9:00 PM EDT / 8:00 PM CDT June 25 2012, a level was observed of 31.41 Feet. Voluntary evacuations in Wakulla county for homes along the Sopchoppy River, upper St. Marks River, the Ochlockonee River, and low lying areas throughout the county are RECOMMENDED.

Current Road Closures in Florida as of 3 AM EDT / 2 AM CDT June 26 2012:

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-377 [ALL AREA] x[SR375] [SOPCHOPPY] - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER - CAUTION WATER COMING OVER ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: US-98 x[BOTTOMS RD] [PANACEA] - CAUTION WATER COMING OVER ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: CR-375 x[SYFRETTE CREEK RD] [SOPCHOPPY] - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER - CAUTION WATER COMING OVER ROADWAY - CAUTION ROADWAY IS CLOSED USE ALTERNATE ROUTE

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-30 x[RUNNING DEER LN] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: SOPCHOPPY HWY x[ALLEN-GREEN RD] [SOPCHOPPY] - ROADWAY CLOSED NO TRAFFIC PERMITTED - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: LOWER BRIDGE RD x[TIGER HAMMOCK RD] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-30 x[WALKER FARM RD] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

WAKULLA COUNTY: SHELL POINT RD (CR-367) x[SPRING CREEK HWY (CR-365)] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - ROADWAY CLOSED EXCEPT TO RESIDENCE ONLY - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: SURF RD [MASHES SAND] x[SR-30] [PANACEA] - ROADWAY CLOSED EXCEPT TO RESIDENCE ONLY - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: SR-30 x[WILDWOOD DR] [CRAWFORDVILLE] - EASTBOUND LANE UNDER WATER - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

WAKULLA COUNTY: PORT LEON DR x[NEWPORT RD] [ST MARKS] - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

+++++

FRANKLIN COUNTY: ISLAND DR [ST GEORGE ISLAND BRIDGE] x[US98] [EASTPOINT] - BRIDGE CLOSED CURFEW ENFORCED AT 8:00 PM NO ENTRY ONTO THE ISLAND BY ANYONE

FRANKLIN COUNTY: ALLIGATOR DR x[SR-30] [ALLIGATOR POINT] - ROADWAY CLOSED CURFEW ENFORCED AT 8:00 PM NO ENTRY TO ALLIGATOR POINT BY ANYONE

+++++

JEFFERSON COUNTY: SR-59 x[WHITEHOUSE RD] [LLOYD] - CAUTION WATER ON ROADWAY

JEFFERSON COUNTY: SPRING HOLLOW DR x[COOPERS POND] [MONTICELLO] - ROAD IS CLOSED USE ALTERNATE ROUTE - ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER

JEFFERSON COUNTY: US-27 (SR-20) x[US-19 (SR-57)] [CAPPS] - 3 TO 4 FOOT DEEP WATER ACROSS ROADWAY

JEFFERSON COUNTY: SR-30 x[HELLS HALF ACRE] [LAMONT] - TREE IN ROADWAY, COMPLETE ROAD BLOCK

Tropical Storm #Debby Still Stationary - June 25 2012

The timing and forecast track for Debby is still uncertain. Both GFS and ECMWF Models are coming into better agreement at this time in keeping Debby Stationary, or nearly so for the next day or so. [ See also: Sunday, June 24, 2012 - Tropical Storm #Debby - Track has changed considerably ]

At this time Debby remains Stalled / Stationary this morning and has been for some time now. Currently winds associated with Debby are 50mph sustained, down from our earlier report of 60mph. Debby is currently located about 90 miles south/southwest of Apalachicola Florida [ 28.6N 85.8W ], and minimum central pressure is 993mb.

This morning appears to be a lull with Debby. Later today Debby may undergo some regeneration associated with convection and may re-intensify. During this time winds with Debby will once again 'increase'. Due to the environment at hand, we can expect more severe weather in the form of thunderstorms and Tornadoes. 20 Tornadoes were reported yesterday, and 5 Saturday on the Florida Peninsula. Also compounding this will be 'flash flooding' and 'flooding' from heavy rains which will fall over the same areas associated with rainbands, and coastal flooding due to 'storm surge'.

At this time there is a 'Tropical Storm Warning' from the Mississippi / Alabama state line east through the Florida Big Bend and South to around Boca Grande and Charlotte Harbor.
A 'Tornado Watch' for Northern and Central Florida and adjacent Coastal Waters until 2:00 Pm EDT. This watch will likely be extend sometime later today.
A 'Flood Watch' for portions of Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia through Tuesday Morning and 'Flood Warnings' for various areas in Florida and Georgia.

You can find more information on Tropical Storm Debby on the Tropical Weather Page where Information and Graphics update automatically when changes are issued.

You can also find me on Twitter @cataulagawx .. and .. Facebook Cataula GA Weather. I share weather related information there as well.

Tropical Storm #Debby - Track has changed considerably - June 24 2012

It doesn't look as if Debby will be heading west as many thought earlier. Debby is now expected to impact areas of the Florida Panhandle to the Big Bend area. While Debby's track STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN, focus has now shifted to the coastal areas of the southeast. In my post on Thursday, June 21, 2012 Tropical Disturbance Gulf of Mexico, Possible Tropical Storm - June 23-26, I mentioned that Debby would likely impact areas of Florida. I preferred this area over a Texas landfall.

Areas along the Panhandle of Florida, the Big Bend area and south along the west Coast should remain EXTRA cautious due to the proximity of Debby and her uncertain forecast. The Forecast track of Debby remains Highly uncertain at this time and all residents along the coastal area are urged to remain aware of the situation.

Tropical Storm Warnings Continue for Areas from the Mississippi / Alabama State line EASTWARD to the Suwanne River in Florida.

Tropical Storm WATCHES have been extended SOUTHWARD along the WEST COAST of FLORIDA to ENGLEWOOD.

Tropical Storm Warnings for Louisiana have been discontinued at this time.
Tropical Storm Warnings from the Mouth of the Pearl River, West to Morgan City have been discontinued.


At this time Debby continues to move ever so slowly to the Northeast at 3 MPH. Sustained winds are Still around 60 MPH with higher gusts in and around the area. Tropical Storm Force winds Extend outwards up to 200 Miles from Debby, whose center is now located at 28.4N 85.8W, or about 205 Miles East Southeast of the Mississippi River, and /or 100 Miles South Southwest of the Apalachicola River.

Debby is not expected to move much in the next day or so. Debby will continue to bring heavy and copious amounts of rain to Florida, South Georgia and areas of South Alabama.
Many Gulf coastal areas of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana are under Flash Flood Watches and Flood Watches. Storm Surge may also become a hazard during this time.

Here is the latest possible track Debby will take as of 5 PM EDT June 24 2012.

You can find more information on Tropical Storm Debby on the Tropical Weather Page where Information and Graphics update automatically when changes are issued.

You can also find me on Twitter @cataulagawx .. and .. Facebook Cataula GA Weather. I share weather related information there as well.

I will be posting information concerning Tropical Storm Debby on Twitter and Facebook through the overnight Sunday and morning hours Monday.

Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico - June 23 2012

Hurricane Hunter aircraft sampled winds of 60.9 MPH in the east quadrant around Tropical Storm Debby.

Here's the latest computer model plots showing where Tropical Storm Debby may go. It is still early so this will change in the coming days.

I'll have the Tropical Weather Page updated later with current information from various sources. So be sure and check back often.

Here's the 5 PM EDT / 4 PM CDT release from the National Hurricane Center

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

80% Chance 2,1,3 Split | Invest96L

Looking at satellite imagery early this morning, Chance appears to be a little more east than where she was earlier. Also seeing more convection flare up this morning in the northeast quadrant and shower and thunderstorm development is on the increase. At this time elements are in place for Chance to continue developing and we expect her to be named in the next 24 hours. It looks as if the only thing holding her back at this time is organization. Currently the NHC shows Chance at 80% for further development in the next 48 hours.

Latest data showed winds of 30 knots/35mph which if sustained would fit the Tropical Storm category. Due to the disorganized nature of the system, it's likely the reason why Chance is yet to be classified as such. Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Chance today, flying out around 18Z / 2 PM EDT. As long as the flight is not canceled and collected data analyzed, we should know by early evening today if we have a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Debby.

Satellite imagery from early this morning shows what appears to be a closed center of circulation trying to form.

Computer Models once again are having a hard time determining where Chance may go in this early stage. Referring to the 2,1,3 Split above, 2 models have her going East, 1 to the North and 3 have her heading West. With much uncertainty at this time, we are not comfortable in forecasting where a possible landfall will take place. We suggest at this time all areas along the Gulf Coast keep a close eye on this developing system.

Invest 96L in Gulf of Mexico more organized / Tropical Storm Chris still chugging along

70% Chance in Gulf now designated 'Invest 96L', but we'll still call her 'Chance'. Once named, she'll be called either Tropical Depression Debby or Tropical Storm Debby !

At this time we are giving this area a good probability of becoming a named storm within the next 24 hours. A low has been located near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with a central pressure of 1007 MB and surface pressure is falling across the broad area. The National Hurricane center is giving this area a 'HIGH' chance of further development, possibly becoming a Tropical Depression in the next day or so.

Uncertainty Remains ...

Models continue to disagree on the track of Chance. The more reliable tropical models indicate a potential landfall between Panama City and Tampa. Other models take Chance to Texas and North Mexico, while yet others stall her out in the central Gulf of Mexico. The SHIPS Model [Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme] late yesterday 6/21 showed a peak wind speed of 63 MPH, making this a strong Tropical Storm at Landfall.

I must remind you, This is not set in stone. Other factors including possible interaction with land in or around the Yucatan and a frontal passages moving through the area will also be factors in determining track and strength. ALL Areas along the Gulf Coast should remain alert at this time. Do you have a plan on what to do before, during, and after a tropical storm / hurricane ??

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What was Hurricane Chris earlier yesterday 6/21, maxed out with winds of 75 MPH and is now a Tropical Storm once again. Currently Chris has max winds of 65 MPH, is moving north at about 14 MPH, has a central pressure of 987 MB / 29.15 INCHES, and is about 540 Miles East/Southeast of of Cape Race Newfoundland. Chris surprised everyone including the NHC.

Tropical Disturbance Gulf of Mexico, Possible Tropical Storm - June 23-26

Global models continue to show steady development of 'the 30% Chance' over the next few days as it meanders in warm waters between Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula. Upper level winds are expected to diminish providing a more favorable environment for the Chance to develop. At this time the GFS and the ECMWF models are similar in taking the Chance into the Gulf of Mexico and developing a low pressure. They also show the Chance moving northwestward with possible interaction with the Yucatan peninsula while still an area of Low pressure. We think after the interaction with the Yucatan, Chance could possibly reorganize, turn to a North / Northeast trajectory towards Florida, crossing Central Florida and exiting into the Atlantic.

In fact, the GFS shows a broad area of Low pressure in the Yucatan peninsula area on Friday 6/22/12 and brings it to the Florida peninsula Gulf coast around Tampa and the Big Bend area on Tuesday 6/26/12. Possibly Tropical Storm Debby.

It then crosses Florida and exits the east coast into the Atlantic late Tuesday night early Wednesday morning where it looks to regain strength and possibly become a weak Hurricane.

Also of interest is the possible development of another Low in the Bay of Campeche around June 26. We'll see how that goes as we track the first storm expected to impact Florida on June 26.

At this time there remains considerable uncertainty as to what will occur. I will have a better handle on things once a Low forms. One thing is certain; Areas of Florida and Cuba will see some heavy rain with this disturbance as it evolves.

Here's the 5 day predicted rainfall amounts valid 8 PM Thursday June 21 thru 8 PM Tuesday June 26.

Gulf Coast Meso march

They look like Meso Convective Vortices. At the least they're Meso Convective Systems.

This MCS/MCV [below] entered the Gulf of Mexico after exiting the Texas coast Thursday April 29. It dissipated on April 3 around Louisiana / Alabama.

This image shows a MCS/MCV entering the Gulf today April 4 off the Texas coast, and one also exiting the Gulf off Florida's east coast which entered the Gulf south of Louisiana in the AM hours on April 4 2012.

Here's a cool movie showing them All...

Hurricane Rina forecast to be Major Hurricane

From a system yet to fully develop this past Friday, to a Hurricane today.

Rina intensified rather quickly in the warm waters of the Caribbean. At 5 PM EDT on Sunday she was a mere Tropical Depression. Later Sunday night at 11 PM EDT Rina became a Tropical Storm with max sustained winds of 40 MPH. 15 hours later on Monday Rina becomes a Hurricane with max sustained winds of 75 MPH as of 2 PM EDT.

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 PM EDT Monday October 24 2011:

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

Check the Tropical Weather Page for Graphics, Computer Models, and more information.

Tropics still active - Caribbean Invest 96 - October 21 2011

Been fairly quite for the most part as far as any major tropical systems / storms. We've had a couple disturbances form in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean in the past month and a half move up into the southeast of the U.S., a low pressure system that moved through southeast Georgia and Tropical Storm Lee which spawned some severe weather and Tornadoes in the area.

The Atlantic should remain relatively quite but a system forming is not out of the question. This time of year towards the end of hurricane season, the main focus for tropical development is in the Caribbean where the waters are still quite warm. Computer models want to develop this system. Steering patterns seem to indicate a track northwest to north-northwest the next few days at a slow pace. The longer this stays out over open waters the better the chances for further development. I'll keep my eye on this invest and see if it develops into something in the coming days.

Here are a couple computer model graphics showing were it might go, should it develop.

And the latest on this via the National Hurricane Center

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Should this system develop, I'll have up dated and up to date information on the Tropical Weather Page.

Low Pressure Develops off Florida East Coast

Mentioned Last Week, the possibility of a tropical system forming in this area. While the currently surface low at this time has not developed into anything more, there is still the possibility of further development. The NHC is giving this system a 30% chance of further development; here's what the National Hurricane Center has to say at this time 8 PM EDT:

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N79W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW ALONG 25N80W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N85W. THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N83W WHICH HAS BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 69W-78W...AND AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 21N-33N BETWEEN 69W-82W. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE ENHANCED BY STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS E OF A LINE FROM 26N83W TO 15N79W. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW LIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N84W BY LATE MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG WINDS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY..

Along with the low mentioned above is an upper level low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico as well. It is expected these two lows will merge to form one low pressure system having tropical or subtropical characteristic's, and continue to move north.

Here's the anticipated track's of this system -

You can check out the radar images here, and keep up with tropical weather here should this system, or any pose a threat in the future.

We can use the rain here in Georgia as we are still enduring a severe drought.

Tropical Storm Lee - Georgia Alabama Local Impacts September 4 2011

I will be keeping an eye on any severe weather, watches and warnings, and will be posting them as they happen to the best of my ability on my Facebook and Twitter page. Follow along there for any breaking events.

At 8 AM EDT Tropical Storm Lee made landfall just inland over south-central Louisiana around the
Vermilion Bay area. Lee still has winds of 45mph and is slowly drifting to the northeast at 3 mph. This northeast motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with an increase in forward speed. As Lee continues on this track scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected to spread northeast across portions of West Central Georgia this afternoon and tonight. There is the possibility a few short lived tornadoes could spin up in some of the more intense thunderstorms embedded within the feeder bands that will make their way through the area. This has been the case in areas to our west and south today.

The biggest concern from what will eventually become tropical depression Lee and then a low pressure system will be the rain associated with it. I, as well as others have mentioned over the past days of the heavy rains that will be moving into the area. While this is a welcomed rain event due to drought conditions, to much of a good thing can be bad. While much of the rain will be absorbed, depending on hourly rainfall amounts there may be localized flooding. The potential is there for areas prone to flooding from even heavy summertime downpours to become flooded for extended periods of time throughout this event over the coming days. If you live in one of these areas you should be prepared at this time for this possibility.

Not to freak anyone out, but computer models are hinting of the possibility of yet another tropical system forming in the Gulf of Mexico by this coming weekend and lifting north. This is not definite to happen but is something to keep in mind next weekend. If this were to occur, this could bring more high rain amounts in areas that will already be saturated from Lee possibly causing more flooding.

The track of Lee is expected to take it north through central Alabama to our west in the local area. On this track, Lee will continue to pull moisture form the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, there is a cold front moving in form the north that will interact with the warm moist air form the south. This may increase the risk of severe storms for Monday and Monday night. Again, an isolated tornado can not be ruled out during this time.

Rain amounts are still projected to be 1-3 inches with higher amounts possible for the local area depending on where the feeder bands set up and continue to move over the same areas [ training - usually associated with thunderstorms ]. You can see the amounts forecast for our area on my Temps / Precip Page. You can also check out the potential for severe weather on the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Products Page and see what the tropical systems are doing and where they are heading on the Tropical Weather Page. Be sure to hit the other links in the sidebar for Radar, Satellite and other data.