Still uncertainty in the timing, development and placement [area affected] of this storm system. Just giving a heads up. A lot can change in 24 hours.
Here's a few of the NAM model images from the 00z run July 30 2012 showing the composite reflectivity [ Simulated Radar] beginning at 2:00 AM EDT Tuesday Morning July 31 through 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012. None of this is set in stone at this time.
2 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012
5 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012
8 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012
11 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012
2 PM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012
5 PM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012
AGAIN this is 'provided' the storm develops. At this time the Storm Prediction Center in their day 2 outlook seem to think something will happen. I'll keep an eye on this and will post updates whether bad or good.
Here's the wording from the Storm Prediction center at this time along with the graphics. The next update is scheduled at 1:30 PM today.
EASTERN U.S....
MODELS STILL INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /ON THE ORDER OF 30+ KT AT 500 MB/ EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES...WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...CONTINUE TO DIG AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE...NOW EMERGING FROM THE MONSOONAL REGIME AND PROGRESSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO COINCIDE WITH THE EASTERN EDGE/NOSE OF HOTTER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF GENERATING SIGNIFICANT FORWARD PROPAGATING COLD POOLS...AND ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ONE OR TWO STORM CLUSTERS APPEARS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES...WHERE THE RETURN OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES...IS EXPECTED. STORMS MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS MID DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BEFORE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES AND GROWS UPSCALE...WHILE TENDING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
