Local Watches / Warnings

Showing posts with label mesocylone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mesocylone. Show all posts

Monday, July 30, 2012

Georgia / Alabama Possible Severe Storms Tuesday July 31 2012

If the NAM models holds true the local area [Columbus Georgia] may see some rough weather as early as 8 AM Tuesday Morning. At this time 5:34 AM 7/30/2012 it appears North Georgia and the Atlanta Georgia area will get the brunt of the storm at the beginning and then Central Georgia. I'm not 100% sure what may develop. That meaning / being a Mesoscale Convective System [MCS] with a Bow Segment / Squall Line capable of damaging straight line winds or just a very organized Mesoscale complex of strong to severe Thunderstorms also capable of damaging winds. The difference in the two will be the coverage area of a possible damaging wind event with the MCS being the worst more widespread of the two.

Still uncertainty in the timing, development and placement [area affected] of this storm system. Just giving a heads up. A lot can change in 24 hours.

Here's a few of the NAM model images from the 00z run July 30 2012 showing the composite reflectivity [ Simulated Radar] beginning at 2:00 AM EDT Tuesday Morning July 31 through 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012. None of this is set in stone at this time.


2 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012


5 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012


8 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012


11 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012


2 PM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012


5 PM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012


AGAIN this is 'provided' the storm develops. At this time the Storm Prediction Center in their day 2 outlook seem to think something will happen. I'll keep an eye on this and will post updates whether bad or good.

Here's the wording from the Storm Prediction center at this time along with the graphics. The next update is scheduled at 1:30 PM today.
EASTERN U.S....

MODELS STILL INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /ON THE ORDER OF 30+ KT AT 500 MB/ EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES...WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...CONTINUE TO DIG AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE...NOW EMERGING FROM THE MONSOONAL REGIME AND PROGRESSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO COINCIDE WITH THE EASTERN EDGE/NOSE OF HOTTER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF GENERATING SIGNIFICANT FORWARD PROPAGATING COLD POOLS...AND ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ONE OR TWO STORM CLUSTERS APPEARS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES...WHERE THE RETURN OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES...IS EXPECTED. STORMS MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS MID DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BEFORE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES AND GROWS UPSCALE...WHILE TENDING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Gulf Coast Meso march

They look like Meso Convective Vortices. At the least they're Meso Convective Systems.

This MCS/MCV [below] entered the Gulf of Mexico after exiting the Texas coast Thursday April 29. It dissipated on April 3 around Louisiana / Alabama.


This image shows a MCS/MCV entering the Gulf today April 4 off the Texas coast, and one also exiting the Gulf off Florida's east coast which entered the Gulf south of Louisiana in the AM hours on April 4 2012.


Here's a cool movie showing them All...



Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Unconfirmed Tornado Harris County Georgia, Auburn Alabama - Videos - November 16 2011

At this time [ 9:50 PM 11/16/2011 ], it remains unknown if widespread damage caused by severe storms was caused by Tornadoes. Below are , videos, storm reports and storm tracks from todays severe weather outbreak. I will have more information to post tomorrow.

Via WRBL News 3


Video - Storm damage in Harris County Georgia




via WTVM


Video - Storm damage at Harris County High School




Map of warnings that were issued today across portions of the South as of 6:46 PM EST



Storm Reports
VIA National Weather Service Birmingham, AL
 

1200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E NOTASULGA           32.57N 85.58W
11/16/2011                   LEE                AL   911 CALL CENTER

            POSSIBLE TORNADO. BUILDING BLOWN DOWN.

1207 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E AUBURN              32.59N 85.46W
11/16/2011                   LEE                AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POSSIBLE TORNADO. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE AT TERRACE ACRES
            APARTMENT COMPLEX.

1215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE OPELIKA           32.62N 85.36W
11/16/2011                   LEE                AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POSSIBLE TORNADO. MAJOR DAMAGE TO TRAILER PARK. TRAILERS
            AND VEHICLES TOTALLY DEMOLISHED.

1215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S OPELIKA             32.62N 85.39W
11/16/2011                   LEE                AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POSSIBLE TORNADO. MAJOR ROOF DAMAGE TO HOMES, POWER POLES
            SNAPPED, POWER LINES DOWN.

VIA Storm Prediction Center

1836 3 WNW MOUNTAIN HILL HARRIS GA
HARRIS COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORTS OF NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. (FFC)

1845 2 NNE MOUNTAIN HILL HARRIS GA
POSSIBLE TORNADO BENT HIGHWAY SIGNS 90 DEGREES AND CAUSED VERY STRONG WINDS. (FFC)

1854 HAMILTON HARRIS GA
AMATUER RADIO RELAYED A REPORT OF DAMAGE TO THE HIGH SCHOOL AND CARS IN THE PARKING LOT OF THE HIGH SCHOOL. THIS DAMAGE IS POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF A TORNADO. (FFC)

See related post: Georgia / Alabama Severe Weather Possible Wednesday 11/16/2011

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Tipton Oklahoma Tornado 11/7/2011, and more - Video

Reed Timmer and TVN intercept multiple tornadoes in D2 during the November 7 southwest Oklahoma tornadofest. Watch it to the end and see storm chaser Andy Gabrielson roll his vehicle in the outer circulation of the tornado as he tries to get away.

Via tornadovideos.net



More footage from this outbreak from Storm Chasers David Reimer and Connor McCrorey. Mutiple intercepts.

Via TexasStormChasers :


Sunday, June 19, 2011

Detecting Storm Rotation on Radar : an examination

Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes and in no way is meant to flame or discredit the fine local meteorologist. They do a great job!

First a little history for the reason of this post.

On June 17 2011 we had some storms move through the area. The Emergency Alert System [EAS] better known to many as Tornado warning siren went off in Columbus Georgia. Once again there was no official warning issued by the National Weather Service [NWS]. Many again wonder why it went off. At the time some rough weather causing damage to our west in Alabama was being reported in Phenix City.

This is the E-Z Car wash on hwy 80 next to Zebs in Phenix City. Image Credit Skye Cameron Brown


I was watching the radars for any sign of severe weather. I commented on the picture above on Facebook:
Thats crazy. Maybe this is why the sirens went off in Columbus. Also, I took a couple screen shots of radar and may see what appears to be a hook echo on composite, and rotation on velocity. I'll get them loaded tomorrow.
Others also commented, even the original poster which is one of our local meteorologist, so I loaded them the same night. Here is the conversation that followed. Names left out to protect the innocent. The local met will be denoted with WEATHER.
WEATHER: Cataula... What radar site were you using?
Yesterday at 6:36pm

Cataula Ga Weather: NWS - FFC Composite and MXX Storm Relative
Yesterday at 6:47pm

WEATHER: Interesting... because I don't see a hook echo at all within the past three hours. I see areas of extended rain where the downdrafts were pulling the rain further ahead though.

Cataula Ga Weather: give me a minute and I post them on my wall
Yesterday at 7:03pm

Cataula Ga Weather: radar shots are up
Yesterday at 7:42pm

WEATHER: Cataula, I don't see a hook echo in the radar or relative velocity. The inbound winds (green) along the county line there was the inflow jet that got the line to basically bow out. This wasn't a classic case, but it was just the southern edge of the line trying to catch up to the northern half.

Kevin is correct in his remarks about the atmosphere not primed to produce a mesocylone. We generally see those with discreet supercell thunderstorms (like the April 27th event). Also, the shear wasn't nearly conducive to allow the formation of a tornado.

Many people experienced the winds rushing from the top of the thunderstorms and this brought the clouds closer to the ground, giving the illusion of a tornado.
Yesterday at 7:56pm

Cataula Ga Weather: Thats why you're the pro. Sure looked like rotation to the untrained eye. That being mine.
Yesterday at 8:01pm

WEATHER: No problem Cataula! That's why we are here.
Not being one for argument as I'm only a weather hobbyist, I left it at that. But now I want to examine the images I posted further.

As stated in the conversation, I was viewing the radars 'FFC Composite Reflectivity and MXX Storm Relative Motion'. FFC is radar from NWS Peachtree City Georgia, and MXX is from Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama. Here are the images, unedited as they are on Facebook. FFC Composite Reflectivity on left and MXX Storm Relative Motion [velocity] on right.


As you can see in the image on the left, I circled an area where I see a possible hook echo. I circled a large area so as not to obstruct the surrounding storm. The hook I am speaking of can be seen at the bottom in the county that Auburn is in. Here it is in this edited image, yellow arrow pointing to it.



In the image on the left [from above]taken a moment after the first you can see the 'red' just below Aurburn. Here it is edited, yellow arrow pointing to it.


Again from the above conversation the meteorologist said:
WEATHER: Cataula, I don't see a hook echo in the radar or relative velocity. The inbound winds (green) along the county line there was the inflow jet that got the line to basically bow out. This wasn't a classic case, but it was just the southern edge of the line trying to catch up to the northern half.
This may still be the case as he is the one with the proper education. I still see a hook in the Composite Reflectivity and Rotation in the Velocity image. I never said Tornado which was mentioned in the conversation.

In all velocity images, red colors indicate wind moving away from the radar with green colors representing wind moving toward the radar. It is very important to know where the radar is located as that is your reference point for proper interpolation of the wind's motion. As mentioned, I was viewing the velocity image from MXX from Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama. Here is it's location.


As you can see it is located around Montgomery Alabama, well west of the target rotation in the above velocity image. Regardless, where you see red and green come together, that is an area of wind rotation. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I didn't get to the Georgia storm reports from National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA [FFC] before they were removed. I wish FFC kept the information up longer like National Weather Service Birmingham, AL [BMX] does.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL


0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LADONIA                 32.46N 85.09W
06/17/2011                   RUSSELL            AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            AWNING BLOWN OFF OF CAR WASH ALONG HIGHWAY 80. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

---------

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W PHENIX CITY         32.47N 85.10W
06/17/2011                   RUSSELL            AL   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 208 NEAR HIGHWAY 80
            COMPLETELY BLOCKING THE ROAD.

---------

0255 PM     HAIL             3 SE OPELIKA            32.62N 85.34W
06/17/2011  E1.00 INCH       LEE                AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

You may have caught the mention of 'mesocylone' and 'inflow jet' in the above conversation.
A mesocylone is a vortex within a convective storm and has air that rises and rotates around a vertical axis. Most of the time this is associated with a 'supercell' thunderstorm. Sometimes the winds become violent enough to produce what we call a tornado. Sometimes they don't, such as the case here. Still, there was rotation in the storm I'm talking about.
An inflow jet is cooler air at the surface and warmer air aloft created from convection. This can create what is known as a 'Bow Echo' and is usually associated with 'straight line winds', which is what caused the damage around the area on June 17.

Here are some more images of the storms as they pushed through.

Image Credit Mathew Cook


Image Credit Mathew Cook


Image credit Bob Jeswald WRBL


Image credit Bob Jeswald WRBL



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