Regardless of strength and track of the developing low, at a minimum this will be a 'damaging wind event'. On the extreme side it looks like there will be more than a couple tornadoes to deal with mainly in Central and Southern areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and possibly extreme Northern Florida.
If you've followed me long enough you know I won't / don't sugar coat what I see. I want you to enjoy your Christmas but I want you to be aware of the storms that will develop during the day Tuesday in Mississippi and Alabama continuing east through the afternoon into the early morning hours on Wednesday in Georgia. I will remind you that not everyone will experience severe weather and/or tornadoes.
Without getting into technical details [ weather speak ] here's the latest outlook from various National Weather Service office's around the southeast. Click image to enlarge.
Here's the outlook form the Storm Prediction Center on 12/23/12 AM. This outlook will be updated on Monday and Tuesday Morning and throughout the day Tuesday December 25 2012.
I'll be keeping an eye on this for further developments.
Technical details [ weather speak ]- 12z NAM and 12z GFS Severe parameters look strong for Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Northern Florida and a tad weaker [Lifted index and Cape] in East Georgia, still looks more than adequate for severe storms at this time.
Looking at latest data from the 12z NAM and 12z GFS, it appears the system has slowed somewhat. Nonetheless Wind Shear is still quite strong with a Jet Streak of 80+ knots on the 12z NAM and 90 knots on the 12z GFS in the areas mentioned above.
The lifted index on both models is -1 to -3 and approaching -5 on the NAM Late Wednesday night. Cape on the NAM is in the 1500 to 1750 Jkg Tuesday evening and around 750 on the GFS during the same time frame. I suspect a feedback issue here.
I expect backing winds will increase the threat of Tornadoes as time goes on. Also depending on cloud cover and rain or lack thereof ahead of the system the overall strength will increase due to heating allowed. Dewpoints will be in the high 50's to mid 60's and approaching the 70's along the gulf coast adding instability and will be transported north.
Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx
If you're local to the Columbus GA, Ft Benning GA, Phenix City Al area, you can also follow my posts on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather
Posted 1:20 PM EST 12/23/2012
Severe Weather, Hurricanes, Snow or life threatening weather related events. Main focus West Central Georgia & Southeast.
Showing posts with label Severe Weather Outbreak. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Severe Weather Outbreak. Show all posts
Sunday, December 23, 2012
Thursday, April 26, 2012
April 27 2011 - Before, During, and after Tornado Outbreak in Georgia and Alabama
Like others, I have a lot of stuff in files from April 27 2011. Here is what I have on this blog beginning on April 22 2011 and ending on May 2 2011. These are excerpts from the linked post where more information and images can be found.
Friday, April 22, 2011 - My first post hinting of what was to come - Easter and beyond -
Saturday, April 23, 2011 - Midwest possible flooding next week -
Sunday, April 24, 2011 - Severe weather probable Wed. April 27 Thurs. 28 -
Monday, April 25, 2011 - Severe storms still on track for Wed. April 27 Thurs. 28 -
Tuesday, April 26, 2011 - Entering Storm Mode for April 27 - Possible Southeast Tornado Outbreak -
Wednesday, April 27, 2011 - Update 1 - Live Blogging: Southeast Severe Weather Outbreak 4/27/2011
Thursday, April 28, 2011 - at 5:59 PM EDT - Severe Weather Outbreak April 27-28 2011 Aftermath -
Thursday, April 28, 2011 - at 10:06 PM EDT - Tornado Death toll stands at 292; likely to rise -
Friday, April 29, 2011 - at 3:15 PM EDT - Storm Surveys: Georgia Tornado Outbreak April 27-28 2011 -
Friday, April 29, 2011 - at 10:06 PM EDT - April 27 tornado outbreak storm rotation tracks image -
Saturday, April 30, 2011 - EF2 Tornado Harris County Georgia April 27 Confirmed -
Sunday, May 1, 2011 - Social Media and Severe Weather -
Monday, May 2, 2011 - Before After Tuscaloosa, Ala. Tornado Aerial Imagery -
Friday, April 22, 2011 - My first post hinting of what was to come - Easter and beyond -
Next week there looks to be another round of storms by Wednesday. Haven't narrowed down the specifics yet as to whether they will be severe or not.
Current Bufkit soundings hint at the possibility Wednesday evening and night, with high cape helicity values and shear. At this time it appears the further north, the stronger these storms will be.
We'll know more as time goes as that system is still 5 days away.
Saturday, April 23, 2011 - Midwest possible flooding next week -
I'll be watching this system for impacts on the local area as it develops. It's still looking to be a strong one.
Sunday, April 24, 2011 - Severe weather probable Wed. April 27 Thurs. 28 -
Models still indicating probable severe weather heading for our area Wednesday PM into Thursday AM. The exact timing is still in question, so keep abreast of the situation.
Best guess at this time:
Latest run of the GFS shows the brunt of activity around 11 pm ET Wednesday, indicating strong possible damaging wind and potential hail as main features. Cape and helicity values are highest at this time with cape:1338, Helicity:418, a Cins of 8, and an energy helicity index of 3.495525. Due to these factors, and a looping hodograph, a rogue tornado at this time can not be ruled out entirely with the passage of this system, which will spawn supercells ahead of the approaching cold front.
Monday, April 25, 2011 - Severe storms still on track for Wed. April 27 Thurs. 28 -
This past Friday I mentioned "it appears the further north, the stronger these storms will be", this still appears to be the case for the local area. However ... this does not mean the local area will not see strong to severe storms. Models are still showing this system has the potential of damaging winds, hail, and the capability of spawning a tornado.
None of this is set in stone as we are still 48+ hours away from the occurrence of this event. We are right on the fringe as models show areas to the south of the local area having a more stable environment as the front moves closer to the area. This does not mean those areas wont see strong storms. So don't let your guard down.
One thing the models [that I use] have done as they get a better handle on this system, they show it coming through the local area earlier that previously forecast. It's looking more likely the worst of the weather will move through the local area late Wednesday afternoon into the evening, clearing the area early Thursday morning. Thats not to say we wont be seeing any severe weather before the front pushes through, or after with the unstable atmosphere around capable of some regeneration.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011 - Entering Storm Mode for April 27 - Possible Southeast Tornado Outbreak -
At this time it still appears the worst of the storms will stay to our north, as mentioned on Monday. That doesn't mean we are out of the woods. Hopefully we will not see any tornadoes in the local area, but we all know all it takes is strong wind upwards of 50mph to down trees and power lines causing damage to structures. You may know them as straight line winds, or down burst winds.
Our biggest concern tomorrow will be the development of 'supercells' capable of producing tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. We will also have to watch for 'squall line' development ahead of the cold front the closer it gets to the area. A 'squall line' is also capable of spinning up a tornado, along with severe thunderstorms containing heavy precipitation, hail, frequent lightning, and strong straight line winds.
I can not stress the severity of this situation or adequately without fearmongering.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011 - Update 1 - Live Blogging: Southeast Severe Weather Outbreak 4/27/2011
Original Post - Jumping right in ... Already reports this morning out of North Georgia of Widespread Wind Damage, trees down as well as power lines and damage to structures. The worst report at this time:
8:41 AM - "DADE COUNTY EMA RELAYED A REPORT OF POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE IN TRENTON. DADE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HAD PART OF ITS ROOF LIFTED UP."
Tornadoes have not been confirmed yet in any of the reports, including the above. We'll know for sure in a day or two.
The storms that caused the damage in North Georgia is the first round. The Second round will come later today and impact a larger portion of Georgia through tomorrow morning, the local area included. The national weather service has revised the time in which these storms will arrive and depart areas of Georgia.
++++++++
Update: 6:06 PM 4/27/2011 - Just a quick update showing current Weather Warnings, Watches and radar. All of this is moving east and will be affecting the local area later this evening and through the early morning hours.
Severe Weather Warnings as of 5:58 PM EDT
Severe Weather Warnings and Radar as of 5:58 PM EDT
Thursday, April 28, 2011 - at 5:59 PM EDT - Severe Weather Outbreak April 27-28 2011 Aftermath -
First, let me apologize for not 'live blogging' the event. I became overwhelmed by the destruction and death that occurred in Alabama, as the storms headed for Georgia.
Here in the local area, we were not left untouched by the powerful storm system that moved across the nation causing death and destruction. My home county [ Harris Co Georgia ] had what is yet to be confirmed as a tornado move through. Many areas in Georgia felt the wrath, and many on the east coast are still feeling it.
This tornado outbreak will go down in history as one of few that has claimed so my lives. As it stands at this time, it may be ranked as the second most destructive in the past 50 years. In the coming days, it may find itself being placed as number one ahead of the Super Outbreak of 1974.
I'll be gathering a few videos and links of damage around the local area in the coming day, and post them here on the blog.
For now, heres a couple radar screen captures showing the storms and tornadoes as they headed for, impacted, and left the area.
Preliminary Tornado Tracks in Georgia
Thursday, April 28, 2011 - at 10:06 PM EDT - Tornado Death toll stands at 292; likely to rise -
204 fatalities in Alabama
via: ema.alabama.gov - this is a pdf file
FROM THE OFFICE OF THE ALABAMA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE, April 28, 2011, 8pm
Number of weather related fatalities climbs
Clanton – The Alabama Emergency Management Agency has confirmed 204 fatalities in Alabama from
the tornadoes and severe weather yesterday. The fatalities are as follows (listed by county):
Friday, April 29, 2011 - at 3:15 PM EDT - Storm Surveys: Georgia Tornado Outbreak April 27-28 2011 -
Here are a images from the completed Georgia storm surveys from the National Weather Service.
All of this information can be found here- http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=20110427_svrstorms, as well as more text &images, and future updates from storm surveys still being conducted.
Friday, April 29, 2011 - at 10:06 PM EDT - April 27 tornado outbreak storm rotation tracks image -
National Severe Storms Laboratory has released an image documenting the rotation tracks of the devastating tornadoes on April 27.
Saturday, April 30, 2011 - EF2 Tornado Harris County Georgia April 27 Confirmed -
A National Weather Service survey team determined that an EF2 tornado with winds of 130 MPH crossed Harris, Meriwether, and Upson Counties Wednesday night.
Path of Tornado
Sunday, May 1, 2011 - Social Media and Severe Weather -
This is one example of why I use this blog, twitter and Facebook[here & here] for reporting / relaying information on extreme weather.
Monday, May 2, 2011 - Before After Tuscaloosa, Ala. Tornado Aerial Imagery -
These are reduced images available via ZIP File from noaanews.noaa.gov in Hi Res. There is also a PDF available at the aforementioned link with Low-Res images.
Monday, March 5, 2012
MAP March 2 2012 Storm Reports - NWS Storm / Tornado survey's
Map and Data provided by NOAA / National Weather Service / National Centers for Environmental Prediction / Storm Prediction Center
Google Maps Storm Reports for March 2nd. W=Wind, H=Hail, T=Tornado
Links to various National Weather Service Tornado and Storm Survey's March 1-3 2012 [ in no particular order ]
March 2nd, 2012 Storm Surveys National Weather Service Huntsville, AL
Tornadoes and Severe Weather of March 2, 2012 National Weather Service Birmingham, AL
March 2, 2012 Severe Weather Event National Weather Service Jackson, MS
Tornadoes Severe Thunderstorms in Georgia National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA Weather
Two EF1 Tornadoes Strike Geneva County Alabama March 1, 2012 ALSO Tornado in Lanier County rated EF-3 MARCH 3, 2012 National Weather Service Tallahassee, FL
March 2 2012 - East Tennessee, Southwest Virginia, and Southwest North Carolina Tornado Outbreak Surveyed Tracks National Weather Service Morristown, TN
EF1 Tornado in Cheatham County on March 2 ALSO EF2 Tornado in Jackson/Putnam/Overton Counties on March 2 National Weather Service Nashville, TN
March 2nd 2012 Severe Weather Outbreak National Weather Service Memphis, TN
Details on the March 2, 2012 Tornadoes National Weather Service Jackson, KY
Storm Survey Information from March 2nd Storms - Preliminary survey results from Southern Indiana and Trimble County in Kentucky National Weather Service Louisville, KY
EF2 tornado in Posey County in southwest Indiana National Weather Service Paducah, KY
Severe Weather of March 2, 2012 National Weather Service Central Illinois
March 2, 2012 Central Indiana Severe Weather National Weather Service Indianapolis, IN
March 2, 2012 Severe Weather / Tornadoes National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
EF2 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN MECKLENBURG AND CABARRUS COUNTIES NC National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg
Links to various National Weather Service Tornado and Storm Survey's March 1-3 2012 [ in no particular order ]
March 2nd, 2012 Storm Surveys National Weather Service Huntsville, AL
Tornadoes and Severe Weather of March 2, 2012 National Weather Service Birmingham, AL
March 2, 2012 Severe Weather Event National Weather Service Jackson, MS
Tornadoes Severe Thunderstorms in Georgia National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA Weather
Two EF1 Tornadoes Strike Geneva County Alabama March 1, 2012 ALSO Tornado in Lanier County rated EF-3 MARCH 3, 2012 National Weather Service Tallahassee, FL
March 2 2012 - East Tennessee, Southwest Virginia, and Southwest North Carolina Tornado Outbreak Surveyed Tracks National Weather Service Morristown, TN
EF1 Tornado in Cheatham County on March 2 ALSO EF2 Tornado in Jackson/Putnam/Overton Counties on March 2 National Weather Service Nashville, TN
March 2nd 2012 Severe Weather Outbreak National Weather Service Memphis, TN
Details on the March 2, 2012 Tornadoes National Weather Service Jackson, KY
Storm Survey Information from March 2nd Storms - Preliminary survey results from Southern Indiana and Trimble County in Kentucky National Weather Service Louisville, KY
EF2 tornado in Posey County in southwest Indiana National Weather Service Paducah, KY
Severe Weather of March 2, 2012 National Weather Service Central Illinois
March 2, 2012 Central Indiana Severe Weather National Weather Service Indianapolis, IN
March 2, 2012 Severe Weather / Tornadoes National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
EF2 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN MECKLENBURG AND CABARRUS COUNTIES NC National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg
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Friday, March 2, 2012
Tracking Southeast Storms March 2/3 2012 - Latest Graphics
For the remainder of the night, Follow me on Twitter @CataulaGaWX and Facebook at Cataula Ga Weather.
Automatic posting of Watches and Warnings are posted at my other Twitter and Facebook accounts - Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.
Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 7:30 PM EST today, valid through Saturday morning.
Changes in these graphics from this evening at 3:41 PM EST HIGHLIGHTED HIGH RISK AREA for SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE..HAS BEEN REMOVED..Other changes in COVERAGE areas of the Moderate, and Slight risk are indicated. These coverage areas are likely to continue shifting EAST in future Updates.
Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms - Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms - Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms - Red Area, HIGH RISK area likely to see TORNADOES - Fuchsia Area.
Tornado Outlook: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. - 2% risk of a Tornado - Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado - Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado - Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado - Red Area. Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds - Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds - Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds - Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail - Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail - Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail - Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Just for show...
Automatic posting of Watches and Warnings are posted at my other Twitter and Facebook accounts - Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.
Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 7:30 PM EST today, valid through Saturday morning.
Changes in these graphics from this evening at 3:41 PM EST HIGHLIGHTED HIGH RISK AREA for SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE..HAS BEEN REMOVED..Other changes in COVERAGE areas of the Moderate, and Slight risk are indicated. These coverage areas are likely to continue shifting EAST in future Updates.
Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms - Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms - Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms - Red Area, HIGH RISK area likely to see TORNADOES - Fuchsia Area.
Tornado Outlook: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. - 2% risk of a Tornado - Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado - Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado - Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado - Red Area. Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds - Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds - Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds - Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail - Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail - Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail - Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Just for show...
Labels:
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Tornado Outbreak / Widespread Severe Weather Friday and Saturday March 2-3 2012
Please folks, take this threat seriously. Since 12 AM this morning there has already been 118 total storm reports. 17 of those have been Tornado reports, 18 high wind reports of winds 74 MPH or higher [ Category 1 Hurricane winds 74 - 95 mph ] and 83 Large hail reports 2 inches and larger.
This may be my last BLOG post on this. I will be monitoring the situation in the SOUTHEAST and posting Updates on Twitter @CataulaGaWX and Facebook at Cataula Ga Weather.
Automatic posting of Watches and Warnings are posted at my other Twitter and Facebook accounts - Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.
Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 2:56 PM EST today, valid through Saturday morning.
Changes in these graphics from this morning at 12:42 AM EST now HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK AREA for SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE....Other changes in COVERAGE areas of the Moderate, and Slight risk are also indicated. These coverage areas are likely to shift EAST in future Updates.
Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms - Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms - Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms - Red Area, HIGH RISK area likely to see TORNADOES - Fuchsia Area.
Tornado Outlook: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. - 2% risk of a Tornado - Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado - Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado - Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado - Red Area. 30% risk of a Tornado - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds - Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds - Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds - Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail - Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail - Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail - Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
This may be my last BLOG post on this. I will be monitoring the situation in the SOUTHEAST and posting Updates on Twitter @CataulaGaWX and Facebook at Cataula Ga Weather.
Automatic posting of Watches and Warnings are posted at my other Twitter and Facebook accounts - Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.
Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 2:56 PM EST today, valid through Saturday morning.
Changes in these graphics from this morning at 12:42 AM EST now HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK AREA for SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE....Other changes in COVERAGE areas of the Moderate, and Slight risk are also indicated. These coverage areas are likely to shift EAST in future Updates.
Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms - Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms - Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms - Red Area, HIGH RISK area likely to see TORNADOES - Fuchsia Area.
Tornado Outlook: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. - 2% risk of a Tornado - Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado - Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado - Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado - Red Area. 30% risk of a Tornado - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds - Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds - Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds - Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail - Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail - Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail - Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Labels:
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Widespread Severe Weather Expected Friday and Saturday March 2-3 2012
First and foremost ... The main threat will be north of the local area, but the possibility remains for strong to severe storms.
As in all of my posts of this nature, this is not meant to alarm you, but to give you a heads up as to what may be heading to your area. I try real hard not to overstate a situation like this. On the same note, I will not downplay a severe risk either. If what I tell you fails to materialize, that's a good thing.
Okay, on with the show....
Around 11 PM last night after looking very quickly at data I became more concerned with what I saw from earlier. So much so I posted this on Facebook so my Columbus Georgia area followers would be aware of what may happen with the coming storms.
Possibly verifying my thoughts is this from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning
Possibly enhancing this is something I mentioned yesterday, a secondary low forming south of the main low. You can see this second low clearly in this graphic on the Texas / Oklahoma border.
[ Graphic from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - National Weather Service ]
Also of concern along with this is a 'Dry Line' tailing south from this second low as seen on this surface map issued this morning at 2:29 AM EST. This may also provide enhancement to the system allowing more warm moist air to feed in providing fuel.
This is very serious situation yet to unfold for many areas of the Ohio Valley down to the Gulf coast and East to the Carolinas.
Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning
Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms Red Area.
Tornado Outlook: 2% risk of a Tornado Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado Red Area. Red Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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I'll be getting some sleep and will be back monitoring the situation around 4 PM EST today.
As usual when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.
Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.
As in all of my posts of this nature, this is not meant to alarm you, but to give you a heads up as to what may be heading to your area. I try real hard not to overstate a situation like this. On the same note, I will not downplay a severe risk either. If what I tell you fails to materialize, that's a good thing.
Okay, on with the show....
Around 11 PM last night after looking very quickly at data I became more concerned with what I saw from earlier. So much so I posted this on Facebook so my Columbus Georgia area followers would be aware of what may happen with the coming storms.
Listen up ... I am becoming more concerned for the local area after taking a quick peek at some data. While I still believe at this time it will not be as bad as areas to our north [that's a given], I do believe it will become quite active around here. I will be looking at more data in the hours to come and will have a blog update tomorrow moring. Always be weather alert even if a tornado threat isn't as high where you live !!Some of my followers became alarmed and this was my reply.
I do believe as mentioned things may get active around here. What that will bring is anyone's guess. Down here the risks will not be a widespread as in areas to our north. There is still a chance of seeing isolated severe storms down here, and from what I looked at earlier that chance has increased from what I looked at even earlier. The timing looks like the most severe will come through in the AM hours of Saturday morning providing what I looked at holds together. Before this time stronger storms are possible. My concern is not meant to say Tornadoes will be a sure thing in the local area, only that the chances are now enhanced from my earlier thinkingI stand by my earlier thoughts.
Possibly verifying my thoughts is this from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning
GULF STATES...
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT APPEARS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE-WISE AS WIND SHIFT ENCOUNTERS MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF STATES. SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO FAVOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD CERTAINLY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS.
Possibly enhancing this is something I mentioned yesterday, a secondary low forming south of the main low. You can see this second low clearly in this graphic on the Texas / Oklahoma border.
[ Graphic from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - National Weather Service ]
Also of concern along with this is a 'Dry Line' tailing south from this second low as seen on this surface map issued this morning at 2:29 AM EST. This may also provide enhancement to the system allowing more warm moist air to feed in providing fuel.
This is very serious situation yet to unfold for many areas of the Ohio Valley down to the Gulf coast and East to the Carolinas.
Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning
Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms Red Area.
Tornado Outlook: 2% risk of a Tornado Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado Red Area. Red Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
-----
I'll be getting some sleep and will be back monitoring the situation around 4 PM EST today.
As usual when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.
Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.
Labels:
Alabama,
Atlanta,
Columbus,
Deep South,
Georgia,
March 2012,
North Carolina,
Severe Weather Outbreak,
South Carolina,
Southeast,
straight line winds,
Tornado
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Watching the Storm setup for Friday 3/2 and Saturday 3/3/2012
Wow .. what a wild couple of days we've already had, and it's not officially Spring yet !!
Here's a look at the Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings issued from February 29 at 12 AM thru March 1 2012 at 4 AM.
The reason I show you the above is because we have a similar setup beginning Friday into the weekend. My thinking at this time is, the area with the greatest coverage of Warned storms in the image above will likely shift south of where it was. To include Arkansas in the mid-west. In the south and southeast .. Tennessee, North Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia into South and North Carolina as the system progresses to the east. Hopefully like this last system, the deep south will be spared.
It's really difficult to tell at this time where and what this system will do. The main feature with this evolving system hasn't been on land out west long enough for models to really get a grasp on it. As you may have guessed, some models show it stronger while others don't. Some show it slower, while others faster. Some even hint at a secondary low forming south of the main low. All in all we're going to have to wait a bit longer to really know where it will go. One thing we do know regardless of where it goes, it will produce more severe weather. Just as models differ on timing and placement, Bufkit model data varies with strength. Some models show it being a low cape high shear event, while others have high cape and modest shear.
So ... as with other systems, we'll know more at a later time. For now, here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 1:52 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning This will change over the next day as the maps are reissued.
Categorical Outlook : Risk of Thunderstorms Green Area, Slight Risk of Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Severe Storms Red Area.
Probabilistic Outlook : Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Here is one section of wording that caught my eye while reading the outlook that accompanied the graphics above :
Translation : Numerous SEVERE wind events are possible along with potential for STRONG tornadoes from either supercells or Quasi Linear Convective Systems mechanisms. At least a few wind events AT OR ABOVE 65 KT [ 75.95 MPH ] and long-track significant tornadoes are possible. - For simplicity, A Quasi Linear Convective Systems is a bow echo capable of producing straight line winds.
Some folks may also have to deal with flooding issues. Here's the 3 day rainfall prediction valid thru Sunday from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
I'll have an update on this later; so check back !
Here's a look at the Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings issued from February 29 at 12 AM thru March 1 2012 at 4 AM.
The reason I show you the above is because we have a similar setup beginning Friday into the weekend. My thinking at this time is, the area with the greatest coverage of Warned storms in the image above will likely shift south of where it was. To include Arkansas in the mid-west. In the south and southeast .. Tennessee, North Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia into South and North Carolina as the system progresses to the east. Hopefully like this last system, the deep south will be spared.
It's really difficult to tell at this time where and what this system will do. The main feature with this evolving system hasn't been on land out west long enough for models to really get a grasp on it. As you may have guessed, some models show it stronger while others don't. Some show it slower, while others faster. Some even hint at a secondary low forming south of the main low. All in all we're going to have to wait a bit longer to really know where it will go. One thing we do know regardless of where it goes, it will produce more severe weather. Just as models differ on timing and placement, Bufkit model data varies with strength. Some models show it being a low cape high shear event, while others have high cape and modest shear.
So ... as with other systems, we'll know more at a later time. For now, here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 1:52 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning This will change over the next day as the maps are reissued.
Categorical Outlook : Risk of Thunderstorms Green Area, Slight Risk of Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Severe Storms Red Area.
Probabilistic Outlook : Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Here is one section of wording that caught my eye while reading the outlook that accompanied the graphics above :
NUMEROUS SVR WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR STG TORNADOES FROM EITHER SUPERCELLS OR QLCS-VORTEX MECHANISMS. AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.Thats quite impressive !!
Translation : Numerous SEVERE wind events are possible along with potential for STRONG tornadoes from either supercells or Quasi Linear Convective Systems mechanisms. At least a few wind events AT OR ABOVE 65 KT [ 75.95 MPH ] and long-track significant tornadoes are possible. - For simplicity, A Quasi Linear Convective Systems is a bow echo capable of producing straight line winds.
Some folks may also have to deal with flooding issues. Here's the 3 day rainfall prediction valid thru Sunday from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
I'll have an update on this later; so check back !
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Southeast Strong to Severe Storms Wednesday/Thursday 2/29/-3/01/2012
Not changing from my earlier thinking on the frontal passage today and tonight. See previous post HERE.
Still looking like the best chance of seeing severe storms will be from Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia Northward and into the Carolinas later this evening, tonight.
Areas south of Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia will mainly see Thunderstorms, however, a strong to possible severe storm can not be ruled out at this time. The biggest threat with any of the stronger storms will be damaging winds.
A higher risk exists in the Northern most areas of these states into the Tennessee Valley, Western North Carolina and possibly the Upstate of South Carolina later tonight early Thursday morning. A tornado or two in these areas are possible as we have seen earlier today to the west and north.
Here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued 3 PM EST today, valid through tonight outlining the areas at risk mentioned above.
Categorical Outlook : Risk of Thunderstorms Green Area, Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Risk of Possible Severe Storms Red Area.
Tornado Outlook: 2% risk of a Tornado Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado Red Area. Hatched Area / Yellow/Red : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Outlook Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds Fuchsia Area.
Hail Outlook Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail Yellow Area.
Still looking like the best chance of seeing severe storms will be from Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia Northward and into the Carolinas later this evening, tonight.
Areas south of Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia will mainly see Thunderstorms, however, a strong to possible severe storm can not be ruled out at this time. The biggest threat with any of the stronger storms will be damaging winds.
A higher risk exists in the Northern most areas of these states into the Tennessee Valley, Western North Carolina and possibly the Upstate of South Carolina later tonight early Thursday morning. A tornado or two in these areas are possible as we have seen earlier today to the west and north.
Here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued 3 PM EST today, valid through tonight outlining the areas at risk mentioned above.
Categorical Outlook : Risk of Thunderstorms Green Area, Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Risk of Possible Severe Storms Red Area.
Tornado Outlook: 2% risk of a Tornado Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado Red Area. Hatched Area / Yellow/Red : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Outlook Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds Fuchsia Area.
Hail Outlook Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail Yellow Area.
Labels:
Alabama,
February 2012,
Georgia,
Mississippi,
North Carolina,
Severe Thunderstorm,
severe weather,
Severe Weather Outbreak,
South Carolina,
Southeast,
straight line winds,
Supercell,
Tornado,
wind,
winter
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Severe Weather Threat Saturday / Sunday - Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012
Slight Risk of Severe Weather this Weekend. Biggest Risks at this time include Damaging Winds and Possible Tornadoes. This is an evolving risk, details will become clear as the event nears. I will be monitoring this situation and will keep you updated.
Take this threat serious as we are beginning the transition period from winter to spring in the south. Already this year we have seen severe weather including Tornadoes in the south. Fourtanatly for us the last threat in January did not materialize in west central Georgia or east central Alabama.
As with any mention of severe weather, no one knows to pin point accuracy where it might occur, until it does. The latest information and statements released give us a general idea of where and what to expect. It is up to you, the reader, to take every measure possible to keep yourself safe.
What to expect: Strong to severe storms, Possible damaging winds, Heavy rain with possible flooding, Possible hail, and possible Tornadoes.
I have already heard mention in my circle of this setup being similar to the tornado outbreak of March 2007. The only difference from then and now is that the atmosphere is going to be more "water-loaded", which could override severe elements.
Here is the latest wording and graphics from the Storm Prediction Center.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES THRU THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE...AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK...SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 90 KTS.
...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES... DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE WEST...SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER...OR CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE.
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...OR REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
Some areas may have to deal with localized flooding as well. Here's the outlook Today thru Tuesday of next week for Rainfall - The latest from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO BY LATE FRIDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
Take this threat serious as we are beginning the transition period from winter to spring in the south. Already this year we have seen severe weather including Tornadoes in the south. Fourtanatly for us the last threat in January did not materialize in west central Georgia or east central Alabama.
As with any mention of severe weather, no one knows to pin point accuracy where it might occur, until it does. The latest information and statements released give us a general idea of where and what to expect. It is up to you, the reader, to take every measure possible to keep yourself safe.
What to expect: Strong to severe storms, Possible damaging winds, Heavy rain with possible flooding, Possible hail, and possible Tornadoes.
I have already heard mention in my circle of this setup being similar to the tornado outbreak of March 2007. The only difference from then and now is that the atmosphere is going to be more "water-loaded", which could override severe elements.
Here is the latest wording and graphics from the Storm Prediction Center.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES THRU THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE...AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK...SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 90 KTS.
...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES... DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE WEST...SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER...OR CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE.
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...OR REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
Some areas may have to deal with localized flooding as well. Here's the outlook Today thru Tuesday of next week for Rainfall - The latest from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO BY LATE FRIDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
Labels:
Alabama,
Deep South,
February 2012,
Florida,
Georgia,
hail,
Mesoscale Convective System,
severe weather,
Severe Weather Outbreak,
Southeast,
Squall Line.,
straight line winds,
Tornado,
wind
Monday, February 6, 2012
2011 Tornadoes by EF Scale - MAP
Dixie Alley lit up !!
Via Facebook - NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center
The map features entire confirmed tornado tracks and not just the individual county-based segments or reports.
With a relatively quiet week expected in terms of severe weather, we'll take the opportunity to look back at some notable tornado statistics from a very active 2011. A total of 48 states reported tornadoes in 2011, which ties 1989 for 1st place for the most states reporting tornadoes in a given year. As far as yearly totals, the total number of tornadoes (1690 - subject to revision) in 2011 ranks second only to the 1817 tornadoes reported in 2004.
Via Facebook - NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center
The map features entire confirmed tornado tracks and not just the individual county-based segments or reports.
With a relatively quiet week expected in terms of severe weather, we'll take the opportunity to look back at some notable tornado statistics from a very active 2011. A total of 48 states reported tornadoes in 2011, which ties 1989 for 1st place for the most states reporting tornadoes in a given year. As far as yearly totals, the total number of tornadoes (1690 - subject to revision) in 2011 ranks second only to the 1817 tornadoes reported in 2004.
Labels:
April 2011,
February 2012,
Severe Weather Outbreak,
Tornado
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Diane Sawyer - Alabama Tornadoes "Struck Without Warning"
As I was preparing this a tweet came across the board from James Spann @spann : So, I hear ABC has noticed us. I am expecting a phone call. Very encouraged. Stay tuned...
Main Stream Media stepped in it again.
This time it was Diane Sawyer's coverage of the Severe weather outbreak in Alabama on January 23 2012. I know she is just a face but, she should have some kind of input into what she reads off the teleprompter. Maybe she is like many, to busy to get the facts. Still, doesn't she have people to get the facts ? The answer is YES !!
This morning I listened in on the Rick & Bubba show as Meteorologist James Spann - ABC 33/40 TV kept his cool, while explaining the facts. James mentioned that this storm system was forecast well in advance. I know this to be true, as I even mentioned it on this blog as early as Sunday, January 22, 2012 after looking at the data provided form various sources. I also mentioned it again Monday Morning at 3:08 AM as storms were bearing down on Alabama [ see included Radar Capture at previous link ].
'Without Warning'; I think not !
During the show this morning, James mentioned that someone from ABC contacted the National Weather Service to ask about the facts behind the Warning System. Basically what was said, There was no less than 30 minutes advanced warning and up to 1 hour before the Tornadoes hit the areas affected in Alabama on January 23 2012. Diane Sawyer - Alabama Tornadoes "Struck Without Warning" ???
Here is the section of the ABC broadcast Monday Evening 1/23/2012 that opened this can of worms...
Diane Sawyer Gets It WRONG
No warning? Get a clue..
If that wasn't bad enough, ABC World News Tonight with Diane Sawyer also spewed forth more misinformation. I picked up this little tidbit, which few know of at this time via emergencyemail.org
See also Alabama Tornadoes "Struck Without Warning..." - 'Mainstream Media' Proves Yet Again That They're A Chicken Nugget Shy of a Happy Meal...
Main Stream Media stepped in it again.
This time it was Diane Sawyer's coverage of the Severe weather outbreak in Alabama on January 23 2012. I know she is just a face but, she should have some kind of input into what she reads off the teleprompter. Maybe she is like many, to busy to get the facts. Still, doesn't she have people to get the facts ? The answer is YES !!
This morning I listened in on the Rick & Bubba show as Meteorologist James Spann - ABC 33/40 TV kept his cool, while explaining the facts. James mentioned that this storm system was forecast well in advance. I know this to be true, as I even mentioned it on this blog as early as Sunday, January 22, 2012 after looking at the data provided form various sources. I also mentioned it again Monday Morning at 3:08 AM as storms were bearing down on Alabama [ see included Radar Capture at previous link ].
'Without Warning'; I think not !
During the show this morning, James mentioned that someone from ABC contacted the National Weather Service to ask about the facts behind the Warning System. Basically what was said, There was no less than 30 minutes advanced warning and up to 1 hour before the Tornadoes hit the areas affected in Alabama on January 23 2012. Diane Sawyer - Alabama Tornadoes "Struck Without Warning" ???
Here is the section of the ABC broadcast Monday Evening 1/23/2012 that opened this can of worms...
Diane Sawyer Gets It WRONG
No warning? Get a clue..
If that wasn't bad enough, ABC World News Tonight with Diane Sawyer also spewed forth more misinformation. I picked up this little tidbit, which few know of at this time via emergencyemail.org
This evening, January 23, 2012, ABC mistakenly reported that individuals can sign up for weather alerts through FEMA.
We've seen a lot of interest from the public following that report and we wanted to correct that point:
FEMA does not send out alerts as this is a local responsibility.
See also Alabama Tornadoes "Struck Without Warning..." - 'Mainstream Media' Proves Yet Again That They're A Chicken Nugget Shy of a Happy Meal...
Monday, January 23, 2012
Severe Weather Threat Monday 1/23/2012
Threat for severe weather in the local area still remains. [ 3:08 AM 1/23/2012 ]
At this time, severe threat for the local area is somewhat lower thanks to CAD Cold Air Damming [WEDGE] from the Northeast. However, we are still on the warm side of the Wedge with temps in the low 60's and dew points also in the low 60's. Areas to our north and east, temps and dew points are much lower.
Storms out to our west have weakened over the past couple of hours. Still .. they are producing Tornadoes indicated by Radar, and severe thunderstorms in North and Central western Alabama.
Radar 307 AM EST Jan 23 2012....
While the situation is improving somewhat, it remains to be seen as the front closes in on the local area if it will continue. I will continue to monitor the situation and post any updates concerning severe weather on Facebook and Twitter....
*My Facebook Page Cataula GA Weather Alerts: LIKE IT to receive the Alerts. All warnings for the local area and then some are posted there automatically. You can subscribe via SMS if you like (text message to your phone) by clicking the link on the left side column at the bottom titled 'Get Updates via SMS.
*My Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS on Twitter: All warnings for the local area are posted automatically on this account within seconds of the time they are issued.
Previous Post - Georgia Severe Weather Threat - Sunday 1/22 Monday 1/23
At this time, severe threat for the local area is somewhat lower thanks to CAD Cold Air Damming [WEDGE] from the Northeast. However, we are still on the warm side of the Wedge with temps in the low 60's and dew points also in the low 60's. Areas to our north and east, temps and dew points are much lower.
Storms out to our west have weakened over the past couple of hours. Still .. they are producing Tornadoes indicated by Radar, and severe thunderstorms in North and Central western Alabama.
Radar 307 AM EST Jan 23 2012....
While the situation is improving somewhat, it remains to be seen as the front closes in on the local area if it will continue. I will continue to monitor the situation and post any updates concerning severe weather on Facebook and Twitter....
*My Facebook Page Cataula GA Weather Alerts: LIKE IT to receive the Alerts. All warnings for the local area and then some are posted there automatically. You can subscribe via SMS if you like (text message to your phone) by clicking the link on the left side column at the bottom titled 'Get Updates via SMS.
*My Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS on Twitter: All warnings for the local area are posted automatically on this account within seconds of the time they are issued.
Previous Post - Georgia Severe Weather Threat - Sunday 1/22 Monday 1/23
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Georgia Severe Weather Threat - Sunday 1/22 Monday 1/23
First and most important - This is NOTHING like April 27 for our area. That was a generational outbreak.
Severe Weather Threat - Sunday 1/22 Monday 1/23
Timing - For our area in West Central Georgia and East Central Alabama, [ROUND #1] it looks like the weather will begin to become problematic this afternoon from 3-4 PM onward . [ROUND #2] The worst of the weather looks like it will be coming through in the early hours on Monday anywhere from 3 Am through mid morning 10 Am or so. This may and could all change as the system and day progresses. Please stay weather aware.
I do not expect storms around the local area to be as numerous as those on Saturday. I think most of the really bad stuff will stay to our north. I mentioned this yesterday on Facebook. However, should we experience a severe storm, it will likely have the same ingredients as those of Saturday. That being Strong winds, Hail, Frequent Lightning, Heavy Rain and yes, the threat of a Tornado.
When dealing with potent systems like we experienced many times including Saturday, it is really hard to pinpoint exactly what will happen, when and where. The general rule is be prepared when the mention of severe weather is forecast in and around your area. With that being said, here is what the Storm Prediction Center is showing for our area in the coming hours.
First the General Categorical Outlook. This is telling us what kind of threat the storms are and will pose. As you can see in this image the local area is not far from the Slight risk area outlined in Yellow. Remember this will shift east as time goes by. This does not mean the storm will be as strong when they get to a particular location. On the other hand it also does not show us that the storms will loose any strength as well. It gives us a general idea of what to expect in an overall picture.
Next is the Tornado Outlook. This is where the biggest threat is of Tornadoes occurring in the General area from above. As you can see, the local area is again not that far from the Green shaded area, which represents a 2% chance of a Tornado occurring in that general area. With that in mind, there is a low risk of Tornadoes in our area. That does not mean one could not be spawned just as the storms on Saturday did. We were outside the 2% area Saturday as well.
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Next in line is the Wind Outlook. This represents were you might expect strong to damaging winds to occur in a general area. Here we see the local area is well within the 5% area and just outside the 15% area. From this we can tell from what we have looked at thus far, Wind will be a larger threat than tornadoes in our area, produced from within a stronger thunderstorm should one occur in the approaching system.
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Finally we look at the potential for large Hail in the given general area form above. As we can see from this image, we are well outside the threat area. This does not mean the possibility doesn't exist of hail occurring from one of the stronger thunderstorms embedded within the approaching system, just as mentioned above with wind.
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
With all that said .. the biggest threat we face is possible damaging winds. Cant rule out hail or even an isolated Tornado though.
When the weather turns severe you need some way of getting Warnings when issued. A NOAA Weather Radio properly programmed is likely the best choice. Here are some alternatives.
*My Facebook Page Cataula GA Weather Alerts: LIKE IT to receive the Alerts. All warnings for the local area and then some are posted there automatically. You can subscribe via SMS if you like (text message to your phone) by clicking the link on the left side column at the bottom titled 'Get Updates via SMS.
*My Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS on Twitter: All warnings for the local area are posted automatically on this account within seconds of the time they are issued.
*iMap WeatherRadio App: This is available now for iPhone only, but an Android version will be released soon. The GPS chip in your phone knows where you are, and if you are in a polygon warning, you get it. If you are not in the polygon, you won’t be alarmed. Also, you can program fixed locations.
Severe Weather Threat - Sunday 1/22 Monday 1/23
Timing - For our area in West Central Georgia and East Central Alabama, [ROUND #1] it looks like the weather will begin to become problematic this afternoon from 3-4 PM onward . [ROUND #2] The worst of the weather looks like it will be coming through in the early hours on Monday anywhere from 3 Am through mid morning 10 Am or so. This may and could all change as the system and day progresses. Please stay weather aware.
I do not expect storms around the local area to be as numerous as those on Saturday. I think most of the really bad stuff will stay to our north. I mentioned this yesterday on Facebook. However, should we experience a severe storm, it will likely have the same ingredients as those of Saturday. That being Strong winds, Hail, Frequent Lightning, Heavy Rain and yes, the threat of a Tornado.
When dealing with potent systems like we experienced many times including Saturday, it is really hard to pinpoint exactly what will happen, when and where. The general rule is be prepared when the mention of severe weather is forecast in and around your area. With that being said, here is what the Storm Prediction Center is showing for our area in the coming hours.
First the General Categorical Outlook. This is telling us what kind of threat the storms are and will pose. As you can see in this image the local area is not far from the Slight risk area outlined in Yellow. Remember this will shift east as time goes by. This does not mean the storm will be as strong when they get to a particular location. On the other hand it also does not show us that the storms will loose any strength as well. It gives us a general idea of what to expect in an overall picture.
Next is the Tornado Outlook. This is where the biggest threat is of Tornadoes occurring in the General area from above. As you can see, the local area is again not that far from the Green shaded area, which represents a 2% chance of a Tornado occurring in that general area. With that in mind, there is a low risk of Tornadoes in our area. That does not mean one could not be spawned just as the storms on Saturday did. We were outside the 2% area Saturday as well.
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Next in line is the Wind Outlook. This represents were you might expect strong to damaging winds to occur in a general area. Here we see the local area is well within the 5% area and just outside the 15% area. From this we can tell from what we have looked at thus far, Wind will be a larger threat than tornadoes in our area, produced from within a stronger thunderstorm should one occur in the approaching system.
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Finally we look at the potential for large Hail in the given general area form above. As we can see from this image, we are well outside the threat area. This does not mean the possibility doesn't exist of hail occurring from one of the stronger thunderstorms embedded within the approaching system, just as mentioned above with wind.
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
With all that said .. the biggest threat we face is possible damaging winds. Cant rule out hail or even an isolated Tornado though.
When the weather turns severe you need some way of getting Warnings when issued. A NOAA Weather Radio properly programmed is likely the best choice. Here are some alternatives.
*My Facebook Page Cataula GA Weather Alerts: LIKE IT to receive the Alerts. All warnings for the local area and then some are posted there automatically. You can subscribe via SMS if you like (text message to your phone) by clicking the link on the left side column at the bottom titled 'Get Updates via SMS.
*My Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS on Twitter: All warnings for the local area are posted automatically on this account within seconds of the time they are issued.
*iMap WeatherRadio App: This is available now for iPhone only, but an Android version will be released soon. The GPS chip in your phone knows where you are, and if you are in a polygon warning, you get it. If you are not in the polygon, you won’t be alarmed. Also, you can program fixed locations.
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Saturday, November 19, 2011
Pictures: Harris County Georgia Tornado on November 16 2011
A NWS survey team determined that an EF-2 tornado tracked across Harris County the afternoon of Wednesday, November 16, 2011. The peak wind speeds were estimated at 125 mph, mainly around the Hamilton, GA area. The tornado originated in Alabama, crossing the Georgia border near Lake Harding. The tornado then traveled 26 miles across Harris County, ending at the Harris/Talbot County line near the town of Shiloh. The average width was estimated at 1/2 mile.
Labels:
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Friday, November 18, 2011
Worrisome Observations: Harris County GA Tornado on November 16 2011
While reading this article Harris County High School teacher Austin Shepherd hailed as ‘hero’ for helping students to shelter as tornado sweeps through Hamilton, I see some troubling facts. From the article:
Also included with this article at the link above, is a video. In this video Dr. Craig G. Dowling, Superintendent Harris County Schools said this ..I quote;
This storm / tornado began in the Auburn Opelika area, went across Lake Harding, and continued on through Hamilton. "The National Weather Service office in Peachtree City, Ga., said the storm first hit Auburn, Ala., shortly after 1 p.m. EST and struck Hamilton an hour later." [LINK - ledger-enquirer]
"Student Ivy Martin says just before 2:00, "The power went out and all of a sudden you heard the wind like a train literally coming down from the football field."
Principal Roger Couch praised the response of the students and faculty. "They responded quickly. The students got where they needed to be before, and I mean right before things started crashing."" [LINK - WRBL News 3
"The National Weather Service confirms that damages from Wednesdays storm surge was done by one tornado, a continuous path from Notalsulga, AL to Shiloh, GA. Initial estimates show the storm may have been more than 50 miles long. Tornadoes are rated on the Enhanced Fujita scale, with 0 being the weakest and 5 being the strongest.
While Lee County experienced damage from an EF-0 to an EF-1 tornado the damage was more extensive in Harris County, GA. NWS says Harris County was hit by an EF-2 storm, since the tornado made its way across a river." [LINK - WTVM]
The warning was issued at 1:11 PM Nov 16th 2011. It appears the storm hit just before 2 PM. The Staff at Harris County High School had at least 40 minutes to put a plan into action and get the students in a safe place. It appears from what I can discern from above, that didn't happen. WHY ?
Here are some facts about this storm:
Time: 2011-11-16 18:35 UTC
Event: 2 TORNADO
Source: nws storm survey
Remark: a nws damage assessment team determined than an ef-2 tornado with maximum winds of 125 mph originated in alabama and moved into harris county. the tornado crossed the state line around 135 pm est over lake harding and tracked east northeast into northern parts of hamilton then lifted just east of the harris/talbot county line near the town of shiloh. the total path was 26 miles. two structures were destroyed while 30 structures were damaged...including the school complex.
-----------
000
NOUS42 KFFC 172020
PNSFFC
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
320 PM EST THU NOV 17 2011
...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...
...EF-2 TORNADO IN HARRIS COUNTY...
EVENT DATE: NOVEMBER 16 2011
ESTIMATED START TIME: 135 PM EST
EVENT TYPE: EF-2 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 125
EVENT START LOCATION (IN GEORGIA): 32.6970N/-85.1173W
EVENT END LOCATION: 32.8232N/-84.6920W
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 26
DAMAGE WIDTH (IN MILES): 1/2 MILE
INJURIES: 2 MINOR INJURIES
A TORNADO ORIGINATING IN ALABAMA MOVED INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND TRACKED ACROSS HARRIS COUNTY. THE TORNADO ENDED AT THE HARRIS/TALBOT COUNTY LINE NEAR THE TOWN OF SHILOH. TWO STRUCTURES WERE DESTROYED WHILE 30 STRUCTURES WERE DAMAGED...INCLUDING THE HARRIS COUNTY SCHOOL COMPLEX WHICH CONTAINS AN ELEMENTARY...MIDDLE AND HIGH SCHOOL AS WELL AS THE 911 CENTER AND AN ANIMAL SHELTER. HUNDREDS OF TREES WERE ALSO SNAPPED OR UPROOTED.
$$
If anyone has any information to add, feel free in the comments section below.
Here are some of my tweets @CataulaGaWX during this situation:
Tornado Warning for Harris and Troup County in GA until 2:00pm EST. #gawx
1:11 PM Nov 16th via TweetDeck
Harris County GA take shelter NOW. #gawx
1:22 PM Nov 16th via TweetDeck
TORNADO WARNING for Harris CO and Troup CO GA #gawx
1:24 PM Nov 16th via TweetDeck
Harris Co, GA and the town of Hamilton GA are next in line for this supercell. Take cover NOW #gawx
1:26 PM Nov 16th via TweetDeck
Tornado Warned storms heading for Russell Co Al may continue into GA stay aware #gawx #alwx
1:33 PM Nov 16th via TweetDeck
TORNADO WARNING FOR...NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA SOUTHEASTERN MERIWETHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTHERN TALBOT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA WESTERN UPSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA* UNTIL 230 PM EST
1:54 PM Nov 16th via TweetDeck ·
wtvmweather Tornado Warning for Harris, Meriwether, Talbot, Upson [GA] till 2:30 PM EST
1:57 PM Nov 16th via HootSuite Retweeted by CataulaGaWX
Damage reports coming in from Harris County. 911 call center reports damage and Harris county high school reports minor damage. #gawx
2:16 PM Nov 16th via TweetDeck
wtvmweather NWS cancels Tornado Warning for Harris [GA].
2:17 PM Nov 16th via HootSuite Retweeted by CataulaGaWX
A tornado that swept through Hamilton, Ga., left teachers little time to react Wednesday. But when the power went out and the panels started peeling off the workshop at Harris County High School, Austin Shepherd sprang into action.What I find troubling is the fact this teacher and students were not already in a safe place. The storm that caused this tornado was 'warned' at approximately 1:11 PM Nov 16th 2011. Also in the article is mention that the storm hit the school during the "fourth block shop class":
When the winds finally calmed, Harris County Schools Superintendent Craig G. Dowling credited faculty for helping students reach safe shelter in the school’s hallway, and he had particular praise for Shepherd, a teacher of 20 years who grabbed hold of a few students who appeared to be in harm’s way.
Shepherd, 51, had just taken roll in his fourth block shop class when students noticed a drastic change in the weather.What time that was, I have no idea. Do you know what time 'fourth block shop class' started ?
The winds shifted and the rain began blowing sideways.
“We didn’t really have a lot of warning,” Shepherd said.
Also included with this article at the link above, is a video. In this video Dr. Craig G. Dowling, Superintendent Harris County Schools said this ..I quote;
"Well we were monitoring the weather all afternoon, and as soon as things here started to get really bad, I had one teacher just tell me they, worked with split second precision, and Instantly within just a few seconds students were in the hall and positioned for a tornado drill."Again, I dont know what time this was, but from the interview I would say it was a little late in getting the students in a safe place. Once the "things here started to get really bad" the storm or tornado was there. The tornado warning was put out for Harris County at 1:11 PM Nov 16th 2011. The students and everyone should have already been in a safe place long before the weather got bad.
This storm / tornado began in the Auburn Opelika area, went across Lake Harding, and continued on through Hamilton. "The National Weather Service office in Peachtree City, Ga., said the storm first hit Auburn, Ala., shortly after 1 p.m. EST and struck Hamilton an hour later." [LINK - ledger-enquirer]
"Student Ivy Martin says just before 2:00, "The power went out and all of a sudden you heard the wind like a train literally coming down from the football field."
Principal Roger Couch praised the response of the students and faculty. "They responded quickly. The students got where they needed to be before, and I mean right before things started crashing."" [LINK - WRBL News 3
"The National Weather Service confirms that damages from Wednesdays storm surge was done by one tornado, a continuous path from Notalsulga, AL to Shiloh, GA. Initial estimates show the storm may have been more than 50 miles long. Tornadoes are rated on the Enhanced Fujita scale, with 0 being the weakest and 5 being the strongest.
While Lee County experienced damage from an EF-0 to an EF-1 tornado the damage was more extensive in Harris County, GA. NWS says Harris County was hit by an EF-2 storm, since the tornado made its way across a river." [LINK - WTVM]
The warning was issued at 1:11 PM Nov 16th 2011. It appears the storm hit just before 2 PM. The Staff at Harris County High School had at least 40 minutes to put a plan into action and get the students in a safe place. It appears from what I can discern from above, that didn't happen. WHY ?
Here are some facts about this storm:
Time: 2011-11-16 18:35 UTC
Event: 2 TORNADO
Source: nws storm survey
Remark: a nws damage assessment team determined than an ef-2 tornado with maximum winds of 125 mph originated in alabama and moved into harris county. the tornado crossed the state line around 135 pm est over lake harding and tracked east northeast into northern parts of hamilton then lifted just east of the harris/talbot county line near the town of shiloh. the total path was 26 miles. two structures were destroyed while 30 structures were damaged...including the school complex.
-----------
000
NOUS42 KFFC 172020
PNSFFC
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
320 PM EST THU NOV 17 2011
...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...
...EF-2 TORNADO IN HARRIS COUNTY...
EVENT DATE: NOVEMBER 16 2011
ESTIMATED START TIME: 135 PM EST
EVENT TYPE: EF-2 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 125
EVENT START LOCATION (IN GEORGIA): 32.6970N/-85.1173W
EVENT END LOCATION: 32.8232N/-84.6920W
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 26
DAMAGE WIDTH (IN MILES): 1/2 MILE
INJURIES: 2 MINOR INJURIES
A TORNADO ORIGINATING IN ALABAMA MOVED INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND TRACKED ACROSS HARRIS COUNTY. THE TORNADO ENDED AT THE HARRIS/TALBOT COUNTY LINE NEAR THE TOWN OF SHILOH. TWO STRUCTURES WERE DESTROYED WHILE 30 STRUCTURES WERE DAMAGED...INCLUDING THE HARRIS COUNTY SCHOOL COMPLEX WHICH CONTAINS AN ELEMENTARY...MIDDLE AND HIGH SCHOOL AS WELL AS THE 911 CENTER AND AN ANIMAL SHELTER. HUNDREDS OF TREES WERE ALSO SNAPPED OR UPROOTED.
$$
If anyone has any information to add, feel free in the comments section below.
Here are some of my tweets @CataulaGaWX during this situation:
Tornado Warning for Harris and Troup County in GA until 2:00pm EST. #gawx
1:11 PM Nov 16th via TweetDeck
Harris County GA take shelter NOW. #gawx
1:22 PM Nov 16th via TweetDeck
TORNADO WARNING for Harris CO and Troup CO GA #gawx
1:24 PM Nov 16th via TweetDeck
Harris Co, GA and the town of Hamilton GA are next in line for this supercell. Take cover NOW #gawx
1:26 PM Nov 16th via TweetDeck
Tornado Warned storms heading for Russell Co Al may continue into GA stay aware #gawx #alwx
1:33 PM Nov 16th via TweetDeck
TORNADO WARNING FOR...NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA SOUTHEASTERN MERIWETHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTHERN TALBOT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA WESTERN UPSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA* UNTIL 230 PM EST
1:54 PM Nov 16th via TweetDeck ·
wtvmweather Tornado Warning for Harris, Meriwether, Talbot, Upson [GA] till 2:30 PM EST
1:57 PM Nov 16th via HootSuite Retweeted by CataulaGaWX
Damage reports coming in from Harris County. 911 call center reports damage and Harris county high school reports minor damage. #gawx
2:16 PM Nov 16th via TweetDeck
wtvmweather NWS cancels Tornado Warning for Harris [GA].
2:17 PM Nov 16th via HootSuite Retweeted by CataulaGaWX
Labels:
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Picture of EF-2 Tornado Harris County Georgia on November 16, 2011
Tornado that passed through Harris county Georgia and hit Harris county High School, Harris County 911 call center, and other buildings/houses in the Hamilton Georgia area. - Photo via Nate Wade
Tornado that passed through the Auburn Alabama area and continued through Harris county Georgia. - Photo taken in Auburn By Stacey McCollough Elmer
Via the NWS Peachtree City, GA
A National Weather Service survey team determined that an EF-2 tornado tracked across Harris County the afternoon of Wednesday, November 16, 2011. The peak wind speeds were estimated at 125 mph, mainly around the Hamilton, GA area. The tornado originated in Alabama, crossing the Georgia border near Lake Harding around 135 PM EST. The tornado then traveled 26 miles across Harris County, ending at the Harris/Talbot County line near the town of Shiloh. The average width was estimated at 1/2 mile. A total of 2 injuries were reported in Harris County due to the tornado.
Two structures were destroyed and 30 structures were damaged, including the Harris County School Complex which contains an elementary, middle and high school. Also damaged was the 911 center and an animal shelter in Hamilton, GA. Hundreds of trees were also snapped or uprooted.
Tornado that passed through the Auburn Alabama area and continued through Harris county Georgia. - Photo taken in Auburn By Stacey McCollough Elmer
Labels:
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Thursday, November 17, 2011
RAW VIDEO: Harris Co. High School Damage - Hamilton Georgia - Possible Tornado
Video of storm damage on November 16 2011 in Harris County Georgia.
VIA myfoxatlanta.com
See related: Unconfirmed Tornado Harris County Georgia, Auburn Alabama - Videos - November 16 2011
VIA myfoxatlanta.com
See related: Unconfirmed Tornado Harris County Georgia, Auburn Alabama - Videos - November 16 2011
Labels:
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Storm Causes Damage Across Harris County Georgia - Video
Storm Causes Damage Across Harris County Georgia on November 16 2011
See related: Unconfirmed Tornado Harris County Georgia, Auburn Alabama - Videos - November 16 2011
See related: Unconfirmed Tornado Harris County Georgia, Auburn Alabama - Videos - November 16 2011
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Unconfirmed Tornado Harris County Georgia, Auburn Alabama - Videos - November 16 2011
At this time [ 9:50 PM 11/16/2011 ], it remains unknown if widespread damage caused by severe storms was caused by Tornadoes. Below are , videos, storm reports and storm tracks from todays severe weather outbreak. I will have more information to post tomorrow.
Via WRBL News 3
Video - Storm damage in Harris County Georgia
via WTVM
Video - Storm damage at Harris County High School
Map of warnings that were issued today across portions of the South as of 6:46 PM EST
Storm Reports
See related post: Georgia / Alabama Severe Weather Possible Wednesday 11/16/2011
Via WRBL News 3
Video - Storm damage in Harris County Georgia
via WTVM
Video - Storm damage at Harris County High School
Map of warnings that were issued today across portions of the South as of 6:46 PM EST
Storm Reports
VIA National Weather Service Birmingham, AL 1200 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 E NOTASULGA 32.57N 85.58W 11/16/2011 LEE AL 911 CALL CENTER POSSIBLE TORNADO. BUILDING BLOWN DOWN. 1207 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E AUBURN 32.59N 85.46W 11/16/2011 LEE AL BROADCAST MEDIA POSSIBLE TORNADO. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE AT TERRACE ACRES APARTMENT COMPLEX. 1215 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSE OPELIKA 32.62N 85.36W 11/16/2011 LEE AL EMERGENCY MNGR POSSIBLE TORNADO. MAJOR DAMAGE TO TRAILER PARK. TRAILERS AND VEHICLES TOTALLY DEMOLISHED. 1215 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S OPELIKA 32.62N 85.39W 11/16/2011 LEE AL TRAINED SPOTTER POSSIBLE TORNADO. MAJOR ROOF DAMAGE TO HOMES, POWER POLES SNAPPED, POWER LINES DOWN.
VIA Storm Prediction Center
1836 3 WNW MOUNTAIN HILL HARRIS GA
HARRIS COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORTS OF NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. (FFC)
1845 2 NNE MOUNTAIN HILL HARRIS GA
POSSIBLE TORNADO BENT HIGHWAY SIGNS 90 DEGREES AND CAUSED VERY STRONG WINDS. (FFC)
1854 HAMILTON HARRIS GA
AMATUER RADIO RELAYED A REPORT OF DAMAGE TO THE HIGH SCHOOL AND CARS IN THE PARKING LOT OF THE HIGH SCHOOL. THIS DAMAGE IS POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF A TORNADO. (FFC)
See related post: Georgia / Alabama Severe Weather Possible Wednesday 11/16/2011
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Video report: April Fury: 6 Months Later - Tornado Outbreak April 2011
By Derek Kinkade ~ WTVM
You can view more information, videos and images from this Tornado Outbreak on April 27-28 2011 HERE and HERE
You can view more information, videos and images from this Tornado Outbreak on April 27-28 2011 HERE and HERE
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