2012 Weather Year in Review - Georgia and the Southeast

Some of the more interesting weather events of 2012

January 5 2012 - We started the year on a dry note - Georgia Drought Update - January 5 2012

February 14 2012 - Winter Mischief - Winter precipitation Alabama / Georgia - Monday / Tuesday 2/13-2/14/2012

March 5 2012 - Severe Weather - MAP - March 2 2012 Storm Reports - NWS Storm / Tornado survey's

April 27 2012 - Earthquake in Georgia - Magnitude 2.3 Earthquake Appling Georgia April 23 2012

May 14 2012 - We all make mistakes - Well, that was interesting..storms on May 13 2012..Only Human

June 24 2012 - Tropical Storm Debby Dance - Tropical Storm Debby - Track has changed considerably

July 2 2012 - How hot is it ? - Record Breaking Heat in Georgia and Alabama June 29 thru July 1 2012

August 2012 - Tropical Disturbances: To many to choose from during the month, so here is the whole month. August 4 thru 30 2012 Archive *Note: The tropical page linked in many of these posts has no data so don't bother clicking through. It's only used to post current data when storms are active.

September 21 2012 - Still Dry - Georgia Drought Update: Long Term Drought Continues

October 2012 - Hurricane Sandy - Hurricance Sandy Archive *Note: The tropical page linked in many of these posts has no data so don't bother clicking through. It's only used to post current data when storms are active.

November 21 2012 - Last post of the year on Georgia Drought - No Improvement - Georgia Drought Update - I expect the Drought update for this week [ January 3 2013 ] and the beginning of the new year will show some improvement after recent rains.

December 23 2012 - Forecast for Christmas Storms - Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast - December 25 2012 - While the local area was spared again, others in the southeast were not as lucky.

Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast - December 25 2012

Regardless of strength and track of the developing low, at a minimum this will be a 'damaging wind event'. On the extreme side it looks like there will be more than a couple tornadoes to deal with mainly in Central and Southern areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and possibly extreme Northern Florida.

If you've followed me long enough you know I won't / don't sugar coat what I see. I want you to enjoy your Christmas but I want you to be aware of the storms that will develop during the day Tuesday in Mississippi and Alabama continuing east through the afternoon into the early morning hours on Wednesday in Georgia. I will remind you that not everyone will experience severe weather and/or tornadoes.

Without getting into technical details [ weather speak ] here's the latest outlook from various National Weather Service office's around the southeast. Click image to enlarge.

Here's the outlook form the Storm Prediction Center on 12/23/12 AM. This outlook will be updated on Monday and Tuesday Morning and throughout the day Tuesday December 25 2012.

I'll be keeping an eye on this for further developments.


Technical details [ weather speak ]- 12z NAM and 12z GFS Severe parameters look strong for Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Northern Florida and a tad weaker [Lifted index and Cape] in East Georgia, still looks more than adequate for severe storms at this time.

Looking at latest data from the 12z NAM and 12z GFS, it appears the system has slowed somewhat. Nonetheless Wind Shear is still quite strong with a Jet Streak of 80+ knots on the 12z NAM and 90 knots on the 12z GFS in the areas mentioned above.

The lifted index on both models is -1 to -3 and approaching -5 on the NAM Late Wednesday night. Cape on the NAM is in the 1500 to 1750 Jkg Tuesday evening and around 750 on the GFS during the same time frame. I suspect a feedback issue here.

I expect backing winds will increase the threat of Tornadoes as time goes on. Also depending on cloud cover and rain or lack thereof ahead of the system the overall strength will increase due to heating allowed. Dewpoints will be in the high 50's to mid 60's and approaching the 70's along the gulf coast adding instability and will be transported north.

Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx


If you're local to the Columbus GA, Ft Benning GA, Phenix City Al area, you can also follow my posts on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Posted 1:20 PM EST 12/23/2012

Another round of Southeast Severe Weather for Wednesday / Thursday 12/19-12/20/2012

Moisture already beginning to be pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of this next system. This system is more potent that the one we saw earlier this week move across the south. It also looks to be faster.

Louisiana and Mississippi

Impacts will be felt in Louisiana beginning Wednesday Night moving quickly into Mississippi by Thursday morning. The greatest threat will be damaging winds of 60 mph plus that will accompany a squall line that is expected to develop. Due to strong wind shear and forcing to the surface, it is likely a few tornadoes will spin up quickly. These types of quick spin ups are hard to detect on radar and usually occur without Tornado Warnings being issued.

Outlook for Wednesday December 19 2012

Alabama and Georgia

It all comes down to timing as to what will happen in Alabama and Georgia. If it comes in later than anticipated I expect a more robust system with more widespread thunderstorms some that will turn severe. If it comes in earlier than anticipated I expect some thundershowers and a few thunderstorms. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE SEVERE WEATHER. Just as the storm system Yesterday, It didn't get bad until it was to our south and east.

At this time I expect the main line of stronger storms should they develop to enter the east Alabama area between 12 and 2 PM CST [Thursday] and West Georgia shortly after. This timing is subject to change in the next day or so. We'll just have to keep an eye on this and see what happens. Right now our area is highlighted just as it was yesterday for a 'slight risk' of stronger thunderstorms.

Outlook for Thursday December 20 2012

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Monday 12/17/12 Update - Southeast Severe Weather

The possibility of severe storms still exist today for areas in the southeast. Currently [ 5:20 AM EST 12/17/2012 ] seeing some moderate to strong thunderstorms in Southeast Mississippi / Southwest Alabama ahead of the cold front generally heading East-Northeast while the Cold front pushes east.

Radar at 5:20 AM EST

The only thing at this time I see limiting stronger storms developing, some possibly severe, is instability and moisture available ahead of the front. This lack of instability will be on the increase. By early afternoon / mid day Georgia should see storms some of which 'will be severe' begin to fire off. As always, 'Not everyone will see severe weather. I don't think there is enough time this morning for severe storms to break out in south-central Alabama, but may see some later in East Alabama / West Georgia. At the least should see isolated thunderstorms in these areas as morning pushes on. All of this will eventually make it's way to South Carolina later today.

As mentioned the past few days the greatest threat will be 'Damaging winds' associated with the stronger storms. We'll have to keep an eye on things this afternoon onward for the potential for an isolated tornado as well as hail.

Here's the outlook for today issued by the SPC 'valid at 12z - 7 AM EST' this morning. [click image to embiggen]

I likely wont be posting further updates on this here. Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Southeast Severe Weather December 16 2012 - Outlook for severe 12-19 / 12-20-12

Rain / Storms still on track. As mentioned yesterday - "On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday." Main threat still continues to be Damaging winds with stronger storms should they develop. However, due to the setup a LOW threat of a tornado is still present. Not everyone will see severe weather or a tornado. [ Note: Another round of storms expected around Wednesday / Thursday - See below graphic ]

Here's what the SPC has outlined for today into Monday Morning at this time...

And Monday morning thru Tuesday Morning at this time...

Here's the areas being watched at this time [Sunday afternoon] for possible severe weather on Wednesday Day 4 and Thursday Day 5. At this time the setup is looking interesting and if models remain consistent severe storms should develop in or around these areas.

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Possibility of Southeast Severe Weather Saturday thru Monday - December 15 2012

It seems our Second Severe Season has arrived albeit a bit late. Normally the fall severe weather begins in Mid to late November in the southeast. November this year was quite with the exception of a potential severe weather event in the southeast that never materialized during the Nov. 11^th thru 13^th time frame. If you were around this past week you may recall the Storms and Tornadoes in the Southeast on December 10 2012. on with the show ...

This coming bout of potential Severe weather will begin Late Saturday in the ARK-LA-MISS area shifting east with time into Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida. There remains uncertainty with the system as to timing and how strong storms may become due to how strong the upper level low pressure expected to develop in the northern tiers of this region becomes. The stronger the ULL, the more moisture it will pull north from the Gulf of Mexico into an already somewhat unstable air mass closer to the coast and extending northward. Regardless, am expecting some strong storms with isolated severe at this time throughout the region beginning today thru Monday again spreading west to east. Right now [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] confidence is somewhat LOW to the severe side based on how much cloud cover and rain occurs ahead of the frontal system in the warm sector.

Threats with this system will be in the form of Isolated strong to severe storms with the potential for a few Tornadoes with stronger storms possible. While the threat of tornadoes looks low at this time, a couple can't be entirely ruled out due to increasing shear layer to layer which may became surface based over time supporting Bowing Line areas capable of Damaging Straight Line winds and Isolated Supercells which may spawn a Tornado. There is also a threat of Flash Flooding in areas with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. As always .. not everyone will experience severe storms.

Today through Tomorrow morning the main threat will be the possibility of Damaging winds associated with strong thunderstorms that may develop generally in the afternoon and evening hours continuing through the overnight. ... On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday. On Sunday the Storm Prediction Center at this time [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] has an area highlighted for an elevated risk for strong to severe storms. We'll see how this area looks later today for possible increase in severity or even a decrease. For now here is what they have for Sunday Morning through Monday Morning. [click image to embiggen]

Here's the anticipated Rain Amounts Today through Tuesday Morning

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Storm Reports - Southeast Severe Weather on December 10 2012

See Side Note at bottom

Storm and Tornado reports from Monday's Severe Weather event December 10 2012

Here's the lead up to this event posted Monday 12/10/12

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Storm Warnings / Reports issued

Storm report Links [ Links open in New tab / window ]

Tornado Damage on December 10th, 2012 Birmingham (Jefferson) EF-1 Tornado via National Weather Service Birmingham, AL

Tornadic Debris Signature - 0.5 degree correlation coefficient (CC) of Dual Pol from KBMX. There are 3 images in this loop. Notice the "explosion" of CC just east of I-65 on the last two images. This is called a Tornadic Debris Signature or TDS.

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Severe Weather Event December 10, 2012 via National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge Louisiana

Walthall County Louisiana Tornado - KLIX Storm Relative Velocity at maximum intensity at 816 AM CST 12/10/2012

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December 9-10, 2012 Tornadoes Mississippi via National Weather Service Jackson, MS

Marion County Tornado - These images from the Brandon, MS doppler radar show the tornadic thunderstorm at 8:20 am as the tornado passed near Columbia. The image on the left shows 0.5° base reflectivity data, and the image on the right shows 0.5° storm relative velocity data.

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Side note : An active weather pattern continues next week and the following week. Next week may bring some interesting winter weather to the deep southeast per current models or severe storms depending where you're at. Still a lot of uncertainty in this forecast as models continue to flip flop on final outcome. Computer models should have a better idea this weekend and I'll post an update then. ~ Ed

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Update - Southeast Severe Weather Outlook - 8 AM EST 12/10/12

Severe storms began to fire up in Alabama and Mississippi around 5 AM EST and continue in Mississippi at this time 8:24 AM EST 12/10/2012.

The outlook for the late morning, early afternoon remains about the same as my earlier report. The main threat is strong damaging winds associated with the line of showers and storms ahead of the cold front currently in Mississippi. A 'tornado or two can't be ruled out later as numerous Tornado warnings have been issued today. The severe storms at this time are in South central Mississippi and South east Louisiana.

Throughout the remainder of the day this line of storms 'should weaken' as it pushes east into central and south Alabama and continues into Central and south Georgia. As stated, it 'should weaken' but bears keeping an eye on as it won't take much heating for instability to increase later and combined with adequate wind shear strong storms may develop once again. While my thinking is it will weaken and severe storms will be limited, a few isolated strong storms are possible given the moist unstable environment.

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Possible Severe Storms Monday December 10 2012

Good morning, Here's the weather outlook for Alabama and Georgia today.

Rain will be moving in today with Thunderstorms in the afternoon through the evening. There is still the possibility some of the storms could be severe. Not everyone will see severe weather. There is also a slim chance one of these strong storms could spin up a brief tornado, but the chances of that are very LOW. This is due to adequate wind shear in the upper levels. Outside of a possible tornado, the biggest threat at this time will be damaging winds with stronger thunderstorms. Not everyone will see this.

Check the Radar Page for current scans.

Rain could also be heavy at times, but I'm not anticipating a drought buster by any means. Rainfall amounts should be under a half inch. Cooler air moves in during and behind the rain with highs in the 50's to about Thursday, then a slight warm up before the next system arrives this coming weekend.

The next outlook from the Storm Prediction Center will be released this morning at 8 AM EST. I'll try and update you sometime this afternoon. ~ Ed Quinn