Hurricane Rina forecast to be Major Hurricane

From a system yet to fully develop this past Friday, to a Hurricane today.

Rina intensified rather quickly in the warm waters of the Caribbean. At 5 PM EDT on Sunday she was a mere Tropical Depression. Later Sunday night at 11 PM EDT Rina became a Tropical Storm with max sustained winds of 40 MPH. 15 hours later on Monday Rina becomes a Hurricane with max sustained winds of 75 MPH as of 2 PM EDT.

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 PM EDT Monday October 24 2011:

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

Check the Tropical Weather Page for Graphics, Computer Models, and more information.

Tropics still active - Caribbean Invest 96 - October 21 2011

Been fairly quite for the most part as far as any major tropical systems / storms. We've had a couple disturbances form in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean in the past month and a half move up into the southeast of the U.S., a low pressure system that moved through southeast Georgia and Tropical Storm Lee which spawned some severe weather and Tornadoes in the area.

The Atlantic should remain relatively quite but a system forming is not out of the question. This time of year towards the end of hurricane season, the main focus for tropical development is in the Caribbean where the waters are still quite warm. Computer models want to develop this system. Steering patterns seem to indicate a track northwest to north-northwest the next few days at a slow pace. The longer this stays out over open waters the better the chances for further development. I'll keep my eye on this invest and see if it develops into something in the coming days.

Here are a couple computer model graphics showing were it might go, should it develop.

And the latest on this via the National Hurricane Center

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Should this system develop, I'll have up dated and up to date information on the Tropical Weather Page.

National Weather Association 2011 Town Hall Meeting - Video

I was able to catch most of this live. Some very interesting and sometimes scary information was talked about. The main focus seemed to be, How to get warnings out quicker when severe weather is approaching and, How to get people to take necessary action once a warning has been issued. Yet another topic that came up was the number of people that don't have a safe place such as a basement or storm shelter, which was said to be one of the only ways to survive many of the powerful storms or tornadoes like those that came through the south and southeast this past April.

The National Weather Association hosted a Town Hall meeting on Tuesday, October 18, 2011 from 7-9 p.m. at the Wynfrey Hotel in Hoover. This event brought together professionals involved in the severe weather enterprise to listen to the thoughts and opinions of a scientifically chosen sample of everyday people who experienced that fateful day here in Central Alabama.

The National Weather Association chose two hundred people from a wide pool of applicants to participate in the audience and give input for scientific research into the severe weather warning process. Social scientists and a professional moderator lead a focus group of ten audience members on the stage while the remainder of the group answers multiple choice questions utilizing hand held audience response devices.

Run time 2:43

NWA 2011 Town Hall from John Brown on Vimeo.

Georgia Drought Update October 16 2011 - Local Relief

With much of Georgia still experiencing 'Extreme Drought' conditions. Locally [ Harris County ] and southwest Georgia have found some relief, while north / northwest Georgia is once again included in this update.

As you can see in the graphic below, from September 27 on the left [ which was in my previous drought update ] to the current of October 11 2011 on the right, North & Northwest Georgia are once again becoming 'Abnormally dry'. Down to our southwest the drought has eased off a bit reflected by drought conditions now classified as 'Severe'.

Here in the local area, Harris County Georgia to be exact, we have also seen drought relief. Most of the county is now in a 'severe drought' as compared to two weeks ago 'extreme drought'. This was due to locally heavy rains on September 21 [ 2.28" ] & 22 [ 4.62" ] and another 0.51" on the 20^th, for a total of 7.41 inches in a three day period. My total for the month of September was a whopping 8.33 inches doubling almost tripling the normal rainfall amount for the area of 3.07 inches according to the National Weather Service. At the airport in Columbus which is the official rain gauge for the area, they recorded 3.56 inches for the month of September.

Over the rest of the southeast not much has changed during this time period.

Additional Precipitation Needed to Bring Palmer Drought Index to -0.5

Storm on October 13 2011 - Harris County Georgia

I was at the doctors office in Northern Harris county off of HWY 219 [River RD] near Lick Skillet RD. when the storm blew through about 1:35 pm. I called this storm in to the Harris Co. 911 call center.

My observations: I watched the sky darken from inside the doctors office. I knew something was coming. I stepped outside and saw this particular large cloud which was rotating in upper and lower levels. As it moved through I spotted a wall cloud. From my point of view, I couldn't see the defining area of the shelf cloud, or enough of it to verify what I was seeing, viewed in the images below. Moments later I heard the roar of the outflow winds coming from the storm which I have experienced a couple times before [Amazing Sound], which brought trees down at the homestead back in April of this year. I estimated the winds to be in excess of 50 mph. This caused the power to go out at the doctors office. I didn't notice any hail as it was raining so hard, and the wind was so strong I retreated back inside the doctors office. Which I might add is a double wide trailer, not the safest place but I had no alternative.

On my way back home I counted 5 trees down, 3 of which partially blocked 1 lane on these two lane roads I traveled. 1 across the power lines and numerous branches from large to small scattered about the roads. The route I took - River Road [ HWY 219 ] north [Tree across power lines], to Mountain Hill School Rd [Tree blocking lane in two areas], to Hwy 315 to the fork of 315 and Fortson RD [tree blocking one lane] and continuing on to West Bon Acre.
There were reports of downed tress and power lines in the Mulberry Grove area, across roads and on houses. I wasn't able to see the trees on houses or the downed power lines. Honestly I didn't look for them, I was trying to get home and see if there was any damage there and check on family members [especially MOM]. No damage at the homestead this time. I had just over a half inch of rain here at the homestead from this storm. 0.51 inches.

Click images to enlarge. Use your back button to return here.

Image credit: Andy Mason	Image credit: Angie Wright Russell
Image credit: bcorrell via WTVM	Image credit: Brandon Thomas
Image credit: Carla Horne Creamer	Image credit: Kevin Holden
Image credit: Matthew Cook	Image credit: Phil Scoggins via WRBL
Image credit: WTVM	Image credit: WTVM
Image credit: Kevin Roble WRBL	Map of roads I traveled

Storm Damage Reports from around the area.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
956 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MULBERRY GROVE          32.66N 84.96W
10/13/2011                   HARRIS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HARRIS COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORTS OF SEVERAL DOWNED TREES
            AND POWER LINES IN SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY. SEVERAL ROADS
            AND 2 HOMES HAD TREES DOWNED ONTO THEM.

******************

0154 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW FLAT ROCK          32.53N 84.88W
10/13/2011                   MUSCOGEE           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            MUSCOGEE COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE IN
            THE GATEWAY ROAD AREA OF COLUMBUS.

******************

0201 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S HAMILTON            32.73N 84.88W
10/13/2011                   HARRIS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HARRIS COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORTS OF 6-10 DOWNED TREES
            ALONG THE AREAS OF HWY 219 AND HWY 103.

******************

0207 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE WAVERLY HALL       32.72N 84.71W
10/13/2011                   HARRIS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HARRIS COUNTY 911 RELAYED A REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE ON
            ALABAMA ROAD.

******************

0230 PM     HAIL             2 S TALBOTTON           32.65N 84.54W
10/13/2011  E0.50 INCH       TALBOT             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TALBOT COUNTY 911 REPORTED SMALL HAIL...JUST SMALLER THAN
            A DIME...AT THE 911 CENTER SOUTH OF TALBOTTON.

Latest Computer Models Low Pressure Florida Coast - October 10 2011

For more information, see my earlier post here.

Low Pressure Develops off Florida East Coast

Mentioned Last Week, the possibility of a tropical system forming in this area. While the currently surface low at this time has not developed into anything more, there is still the possibility of further development. The NHC is giving this system a 30% chance of further development; here's what the National Hurricane Center has to say at this time 8 PM EDT:

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N79W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW ALONG 25N80W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N85W. THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N83W WHICH HAS BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 69W-78W...AND AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 21N-33N BETWEEN 69W-82W. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE ENHANCED BY STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS E OF A LINE FROM 26N83W TO 15N79W. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW LIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N84W BY LATE MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG WINDS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY..

Along with the low mentioned above is an upper level low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico as well. It is expected these two lows will merge to form one low pressure system having tropical or subtropical characteristic's, and continue to move north.

Here's the anticipated track's of this system -

You can check out the radar images here, and keep up with tropical weather here should this system, or any pose a threat in the future.

We can use the rain here in Georgia as we are still enduring a severe drought.

Tropical system forming next week ??

GFS computer model hinting at a tropical system forming next week. Should this pan out, it may very well bring more needed rain to the local area. Along with another wedge setup expected to occur over the coming weekend or early next week, this system should it develop, would likely be influenced by that as well as a trough of low pressure also expected to develop. If this takes place, this should cause the tropical system to move north west across the state of Georgia. Again, should this happen, we may be in for some good rain. We are still in a 'severe drought'.

Here's looking out in voodoo land to Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

Hurricane season ends on November 30