Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast - December 25 2012

Regardless of strength and track of the developing low, at a minimum this will be a 'damaging wind event'. On the extreme side it looks like there will be more than a couple tornadoes to deal with mainly in Central and Southern areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and possibly extreme Northern Florida.

If you've followed me long enough you know I won't / don't sugar coat what I see. I want you to enjoy your Christmas but I want you to be aware of the storms that will develop during the day Tuesday in Mississippi and Alabama continuing east through the afternoon into the early morning hours on Wednesday in Georgia. I will remind you that not everyone will experience severe weather and/or tornadoes.

Without getting into technical details [ weather speak ] here's the latest outlook from various National Weather Service office's around the southeast. Click image to enlarge.

Here's the outlook form the Storm Prediction Center on 12/23/12 AM. This outlook will be updated on Monday and Tuesday Morning and throughout the day Tuesday December 25 2012.

I'll be keeping an eye on this for further developments.


Technical details [ weather speak ]- 12z NAM and 12z GFS Severe parameters look strong for Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Northern Florida and a tad weaker [Lifted index and Cape] in East Georgia, still looks more than adequate for severe storms at this time.

Looking at latest data from the 12z NAM and 12z GFS, it appears the system has slowed somewhat. Nonetheless Wind Shear is still quite strong with a Jet Streak of 80+ knots on the 12z NAM and 90 knots on the 12z GFS in the areas mentioned above.

The lifted index on both models is -1 to -3 and approaching -5 on the NAM Late Wednesday night. Cape on the NAM is in the 1500 to 1750 Jkg Tuesday evening and around 750 on the GFS during the same time frame. I suspect a feedback issue here.

I expect backing winds will increase the threat of Tornadoes as time goes on. Also depending on cloud cover and rain or lack thereof ahead of the system the overall strength will increase due to heating allowed. Dewpoints will be in the high 50's to mid 60's and approaching the 70's along the gulf coast adding instability and will be transported north.

Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx


If you're local to the Columbus GA, Ft Benning GA, Phenix City Al area, you can also follow my posts on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Posted 1:20 PM EST 12/23/2012

Severe Storms Impacting Alabama and Georgia Tuesday July 31 2012

Severe Storms are already impacting North Alabama at this hour 1:45 AM EDT 7/31/2012. Numerous Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued thus far.

Looking at radar trends the past few hours the overall coverage of the MCS [ Mesoscale Convective System ] storm complex early this morning is yet to fill in, it is still on track to better organize and bring more severe weather to areas in Alabama and Georgia through this morning and the afternoon hours. The greatest threat will be Damaging winds along with hail, heavy rains and copious amounts of lightning as reported via twitter.

The first round of severe weather is as stated currently impacting areas of North Alabama. I feel as though this area will continue to impact this area and to the south in Central Alabama through the early morning hours. I also feel that the activity entering Northern Georgia will intensify in the coming hours and possibly impact the Atlanta area between 6 and 8 AM this morning.

This complex of storms will continue to build and regenerate throughout the day rotating around the eastern fringe of high pressure located to the west. The storm will rotate in a clockwise manner basically training from North to south.

Here is a panel showing Simulated Radar beginning at 5 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012 and running through 5 PM EDT. At this time now 2 AM EDT the simulation has a fairly good handle on what is currently occurring. Click Images to Enlarge.

Here is a graphic showing what I think the movement of the storms will be through the morning and should also occur throughout the day, rotating in the clockwise manner mentioned above.

Here are the most recent graphics issued by the Storm Prediction Center this morning at 2 AM EDT.

Much of the southeast is covered by the 'Slight Risk' category for seeing Severe Storms.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Much of the Southeast has a 15% chance while an elevated risk of 30% exist for south Georgia, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. While hail has been reported early this morning, it remains a low risk of seeing any. Only 5% for the entire area.

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See the lead up to this event posted Monday July 30 2012 at 5:40 AM EDT here - Georgia / Alabama Possible Severe Storms Tuesday July 31 2012

You can find me on Twitter and Facebook during severe weather events such as this where I post updates and any other time as well. Twitter - https://twitter.com/cataulagawx and Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Georgia / Alabama Possible Severe Storms Tuesday July 31 2012

If the NAM models holds true the local area [Columbus Georgia] may see some rough weather as early as 8 AM Tuesday Morning. At this time 5:34 AM 7/30/2012 it appears North Georgia and the Atlanta Georgia area will get the brunt of the storm at the beginning and then Central Georgia. I'm not 100% sure what may develop. That meaning / being a Mesoscale Convective System [MCS] with a Bow Segment / Squall Line capable of damaging straight line winds or just a very organized Mesoscale complex of strong to severe Thunderstorms also capable of damaging winds. The difference in the two will be the coverage area of a possible damaging wind event with the MCS being the worst more widespread of the two.

Still uncertainty in the timing, development and placement [area affected] of this storm system. Just giving a heads up. A lot can change in 24 hours.

Here's a few of the NAM model images from the 00z run July 30 2012 showing the composite reflectivity [ Simulated Radar] beginning at 2:00 AM EDT Tuesday Morning July 31 through 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012. None of this is set in stone at this time.


2 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

5 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

8 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

11 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

2 PM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

5 PM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012

AGAIN this is 'provided' the storm develops. At this time the Storm Prediction Center in their day 2 outlook seem to think something will happen. I'll keep an eye on this and will post updates whether bad or good.

Here's the wording from the Storm Prediction center at this time along with the graphics. The next update is scheduled at 1:30 PM today.

EASTERN U.S....

MODELS STILL INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /ON THE ORDER OF 30+ KT AT 500 MB/ EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES...WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...CONTINUE TO DIG AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE...NOW EMERGING FROM THE MONSOONAL REGIME AND PROGRESSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO COINCIDE WITH THE EASTERN EDGE/NOSE OF HOTTER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF GENERATING SIGNIFICANT FORWARD PROPAGATING COLD POOLS...AND ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ONE OR TWO STORM CLUSTERS APPEARS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES...WHERE THE RETURN OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES...IS EXPECTED. STORMS MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS MID DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BEFORE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES AND GROWS UPSCALE...WHILE TENDING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Storms on track,Mississippi,Alabama and Georgia June 4 2012

7:04 AM 6/4/2012


As mentioned yesterday Sunday, June 3, 2012, storms will be impacting the southeast today. Some areas saw severe storms yesterday, including Tornadoes.

At this time there is a Mesoscale Convective System ongoing in North Mississippi and Alabama. This MCS will continue moving south / southeast through the morning hours. This storm complex is generating severe storms producing damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH, hail to 1.5 inches, dangerous frequent lightning and heavy rain. The individual cells embedded within this complex are moving southeast at a rapid pace of between 45 and 70 MPH. There is also another one behind this one that may impact the same areas during the overnight and into Tuesday June 5.

The tornado threat remains low at this time, but 1 or 2 can not be entirely ruled out due to the nature of the storm system. The main threat will remain strong damaging winds and hail. Instability increases this afternoon where once aging severe weather is expected.

At this time the Storms Prediction Center has large areas in Alabama and Georgia highlighted in a 'slight risk' area. Meaning a better chance of seeing thunderstorms than not.

The SPC also has the same areas from the graphic above highlighted for strong winds and hail.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

There are no severe thunderstorm watches or Tornado watches in effect at this time. This is likely to change at some point this morning due to the evolving cluster of storms. There is a Mesoscale Discussion, which is basically outlining the possibility of some type of Weather Watch being issued. At 6:33 PM EDT, this probability is at 60%. The highlighted area in the graphic is the general area the watch will be issued for.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

See the lead up post on this event, posted on Sunday, June 3, 2012 at 10:49 AM : Severe Storms possible in Georgia and Alabama June 4/5 2012

Severe Storms possible in Georgia and Alabama June 4/5 2012

See updated post on this event here - 7:04 AM 6/4/2012 Storms on track,Mississippi,Alabama and Georgia June 4 2012

Threats: The main threat from this round of storms will be 'damaging winds', with some areas also having the potential for seeing some hail. The tornado threat is low at this time.

What: Mesoscale Convective System - The main area of storms that will be pushing through the area will be fairly organized in nature, with stronger storms embedded with the main complex. Storms may develop out ahead of the main system. This will be difficult to determine until the main complex has formed and begins to move through the area.

When: Timing is another factor difficult to determine with a system such as this. At this time, For areas in north Alabama and Georgia, it looks like it will start to become active in the early morning hours on Monday, as early as 5 AM.
Depending on forward motion/speed, Central Alabama and Georgia may begin to see activity around 8 AM peaking in the afternoon and early evening hours. During daytime heating the storms may intensify.
The storms will continue pushing south/southeast through the day and into the overnight hours Monday reaching the southern areas sometime early Tuesday morning.

As with all systems of this nature, not everyone will experience severe weather.

At this time the storm prediction center has the Northern and Central areas of Alabama and Georgia mentioned above highlighted in a 'Slight Risk' for Monday and shifts the 'Slight risk' area to the south for Tuesday. I will continue to monitor the situation for possible upgrade to a 'moderate risk' for these areas depending on storm evolution.

Here's a composite showing the Monday and Tuesday 'slight risk' areas.

As usual when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Strong to Severe Storms Georgia / Alabama - 5/31-6/1 2012

Friday looks to be an active day for weather. We might even see some strong storms Thursday night in Alabama before the storms arrive in Georgia sometime Friday.

At this time the greatest threats with the strong to severe storms will be Hail from pea size up to quarter size, Strong Damaging winds to 50+ MPH, Heavy rains and frequent lightning. I will also add that there is a small chance of a Tornado due to variables with the approaching system and individual storm cells should they develop.

While the threat of a tornado is small, it can not be entirely ruled out. The reason for this is due to what may happen with the stronger storms [ See Link - Confirmed Tornado Lee County Alabama on May 13 2012 ]. While the best energy for Tornadoes will be to our north in Georgia and farther north, strong storms which will be coming through will be capable of spinning up quick small short lived tornadoes. I wont rule out a small tornado Thursday or Friday at some point and time in Alabama or Georgia.

At this time, it looks like Thunderstorms will increase Thursday Night, and there is the possibility some of them could be severe. Early Friday morning in the early AM hours there may still be some active storms around. Not as active as with day time heating, but still some could be strong.

On Friday as the day heats up, storms should get a little stronger by mid afternoon and continue into the night. The exact timing is not set in stone. Other factors will also be in play that may help storms begin earlier or later, be weaker or stronger, such as cloud cover and or atmosphere stabilization / destabilization from the earlier storms to our west.

Just a reminder ... Not everyone will see a severe storm. Not everyone will experience hail and high winds. Not everyone will see a Tornado. No one knows to pin point accuracy when and where any of this may happen during the event.

I'll have another update later.

Gulf Coast Meso march

They look like Meso Convective Vortices. At the least they're Meso Convective Systems.

This MCS/MCV [below] entered the Gulf of Mexico after exiting the Texas coast Thursday April 29. It dissipated on April 3 around Louisiana / Alabama.

This image shows a MCS/MCV entering the Gulf today April 4 off the Texas coast, and one also exiting the Gulf off Florida's east coast which entered the Gulf south of Louisiana in the AM hours on April 4 2012.

Here's a cool movie showing them All...

Southeast / Gulf coast - Strong storms possible Saturday March 31 2012

The biggest threat form any severe storms should they develop will be strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and hail.

Some possible strong to isolated severe storms today. Like yesterday, it depends on where you are. Noticed a feature late Thursday night as it came off the Texas coast. I thought, here we go and not even hurricane season yet. Looked real tropical the other day, now really more of an upper level disturbance. If it were a surface based low, we might be looking at some wild weather. Since, it is more of a meso convective system as it moved into the area and is now located in Mississippi. It will enhance showers to our south and central areas of Alabama and Georgia. We also have a trough moving down from the north which will affect areas in north Alabama and Georgia. We're stuck somewhat in the middle of these two features in central Alabama and Georgia, and they will provide us with some unsettled weather today.

Already seeing some showers and storms developing in central and south Alabama early this morning on radar [ 5:50 AM EDT 3/31/2012 ]. You can clearly see the MCV rotating along the gulf coast in Mississippi heading for the Mobile area in Alabama. Not seeing much progression to the north with this feature at this time. Expect it will slowly continue it's northeast movement and by this afternoon affect central and Southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

The storm prediction center has and area highlighted with a slight chance of severe storms today from central Alabama to the west in northern Louisiana, east Arkansas and southwest Tennessee.

It's possible later in the evening North and South Carolina will be affected by these storms.

Update 1 - Latest on Storms Saturday 2/18 and Sunday 2/19

Update #1 - 4:00 PM EST 2/18/2012

Quick Update to show the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center this afternoon. The changes are subtle but do impact the local area and much of the southeast. For previous graphics see 'original post' below.

The primary hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail and lightning.

Slight Risk : Now includes Most of West Central Georgia over towards Macon in Central Georgia and South Towards Albany.

Tornado Probability : The local area including Columbus GA. and Phenix City Al is at a 2% risk of seeing a Tornado with the 5% area now encroaching on the southern counties in the local area.

Wind Probability : The local area including Columbus GA. and Phenix City Al. south towards Albany is now well within a 15% risk of Damaging Winds with a 5% Risk covering much of Georgia back into Alabama. The 30% risk area has shifted slightly northeast.

Hail Probability : The local area including Columbus GA., much of Central GA towards Macon and Phenix City Al. and much of central Alabama is at a 5% risk of seeing large hail.

Per the SPC concerning this update:

ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL GA WHERE THE GFS MOVES A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...A TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS CNTRL GA.

**********

Original Post at 9:38 AM EST 2/18/2012

The primary hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail and lightning.

I will add, looking at models today, it seems the threat for really severe storms has diminished somewhat. This does not mean that one or more will not occur so don't let your guard down.


Looking at soundings from the RUC this morning for 6 AM Saturday through 12 AM Sunday morning [ 18 hrs sounding ], looks like any stronger storms will hold off until this evening around 4 PM EST. This particular model is indicating at this time stronger storms late this evening. One such storm is possible around 10 PM EST. The Hodograph for this particular storm is showing Zero CAPE, Helicity 782 and Shear 59 m/s. As mentioned yesterday, this system is a low CAPE, moderate to high Shear event and this sounding shows that well.

The NAM sounding shows stronger storms holding off until around 6 PM EST, building through the evening where around 10 PM EST one of the possible stronger storms will push through, having Zero CAPE, Helicity 799 and Shear 52 m/s.

The GFS3 sounding shows stronger storms holding off until around 6 PM EST as well, then building through the evening where around 12 AM EST Sunday Morning one of the possible stronger storms will push through, having Zero CAPE, Helicity 775 and Shear 50 m/s.

All in all possible stronger storms should arrive in the area this evening around 5 PM EST. Continuing through the evening with stronger storms around 11 PM EST Saturday night continuing through the overnight into early morning hours of Sunday. Accompanying these thunderstorms will be lots of rain with the GFS showing storm totals of over 3 inches.


Here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center this morning....

Slight Risk : Extends north into the southern local area, including Columbus.

Tornado Probability : The Southern local area including Columbus is at a 2% risk of a Tornado.

Wind Probability : The local area including Columbus south is at a 15% risk of Damaging Winds with a 5% Risk covering the rest of the local area.

Hail Probability : The local area including Columbus, south and west of the city is at a 5% risk.

Here is this mornings outlook from the NWS Peachtree City, GA

Day One...Today and Tonight... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of central Georgia. Synopsis... A strong storm system will move out of Texas and into the southeast United States through tonight. Primary Hazards... The primary hazards from the severe thunderstorms will be isolated tornadoes...damaging winds...large hail and lightning. The area of concern is along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon to Louisville and between midnight tonight and 7 am Sunday morning. Discussion... A ridge of high pressure will strengthen over north and central Georgia today as rain spreads across the state today. The strength of the ridge will depend on how far north a warm front will move into central Georgia tonight. At this time the warm front is expected to reach a Columbus to Macon to Louisville line late tonight. Areas south of the warm front will destabilize with capes reaching 600. Significant shear coupled with the relatively high capes and dewpoints in the lower 60s will be sufficient for isolated severe thunderstorms to develop after midnight tonight.

And the excessive rainfall outlook from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

As is the case when severe weather threatens the area, I will be posting updates on Facebook and Twitter as much as I can and to the best of my ability.

My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


Previous posts :

Thursday, February 16, 2012 - Severe Weather Threat Saturday / Sunday - Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

Severe Weather Threat still on track Saturday / Sunday for Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

Severe Weather Threat still on track Saturday / Sunday for Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

My thinking at this time ... I will try and keep it simple ...

The severe weather threat for this Saturday is much like the last couple that have pushed through the southeast and local area during the past month, a low CAPE elevated SHEAR event. What this means is, while there may not be as much available convective energy [cape] as we would see during summertime thunderstorms, winds at different heights, speed and direction [shear] will make it possible for tornadoes to spin up out of the stronger storms that may move through the area. As with all situations such as this, it is not definitive this will happen. It just means the possibility is there for damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain and possibly a tornado.

Looking at data available at this time 10:56 AM 2/17/2012, it would appear things may get bumpy during the overnight hours Saturday night into the early AM hours of Sunday Morning. I know this is not what many want to hear. I wish I could control the weather and make it otherwise.

Here is what I see ..... While thunderstorms may be ongoing from late afternoon Saturday, things start to heat up around 6 PM EST. From that time, storms will continue to build as the combination of a warm front to the south pushes north, and a cold front from the west pushes east. It looks like some of the stronger storms will push through around 9 PM EST. and possibly again as the frontal passage pushes through the area around 3 AM EST. Again, this is going by data currently available. Timing will change as the system evolves.

As I have said before, no one knows to pin point accuracy where severe storms might occur, until they form. We can only watch the environment for development and track their paths.

The latest wording form the Storm Prediction Center includes the mention of a strengthening Low Level Jet stream which would help induce a Line Echo Wave Pattern and Bow Echos which are indicative of straight line winds and possible tornadoes. They also mention Embedded Supercells which as we know can produce tornadoes. Again, I am not saying a tornado will spin up, only that conditions 'may' become favorable.

Another aspect of this will be the potential for flooding in areas which are prone. 2 to 3 inches of rain are expected during this event. There is the possibility of higher amounts in isolated areas.

What we can hope for is good rain and more clouds ahead of the main line to help stabilize the atmosphere, thus reducing the severe weather threat.

See my earlier post for more information - Severe Weather Threat Saturday / Sunday - Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

As is the case when severe weather threatens the area, I will be posting updates on Facebook and Twitter as much as I can and to the best of my ability.

My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Here is a graphic from the NWS out of Peachtree City Georgia. I posted one earlier this morning from them which was released at 3:38 AM on Facebook. At that time the northern extent of the line was through central Troup county to the west. Now the line for potential severe weather has been pushed farther north.

A strong storm system will move toward Georgia bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday night. Some of these storms could produce damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain and possibly a tornado. The area of greatest threat is generally south of a Carrollton to Atlanta to Commerce line between 6 PM Saturday to 9 AM Sunday. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible across much of north and central Georgia by midday Sunday and could produce minor flooding.

Here is another graphic. This one from the NWS out of Birmingham Alabama highlighting the area likely to see Tornadoes out of this storm system should they occur.

Severe Tornado Parameter (12Z NAM) valid at midnight tomorrow night EST. Highest risk remains over South Alabama.

Severe Weather Threat Saturday / Sunday - Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

Slight Risk of Severe Weather this Weekend. Biggest Risks at this time include Damaging Winds and Possible Tornadoes. This is an evolving risk, details will become clear as the event nears. I will be monitoring this situation and will keep you updated.

Take this threat serious as we are beginning the transition period from winter to spring in the south. Already this year we have seen severe weather including Tornadoes in the south. Fourtanatly for us the last threat in January did not materialize in west central Georgia or east central Alabama.

As with any mention of severe weather, no one knows to pin point accuracy where it might occur, until it does. The latest information and statements released give us a general idea of where and what to expect. It is up to you, the reader, to take every measure possible to keep yourself safe.

What to expect: Strong to severe storms, Possible damaging winds, Heavy rain with possible flooding, Possible hail, and possible Tornadoes.

I have already heard mention in my circle of this setup being similar to the tornado outbreak of March 2007. The only difference from then and now is that the atmosphere is going to be more "water-loaded", which could override severe elements.

Here is the latest wording and graphics from the Storm Prediction Center.


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES THRU THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE...AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK...SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 90 KTS.


...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES... DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE WEST...SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER...OR CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE.

SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...OR REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

Some areas may have to deal with localized flooding as well. Here's the outlook Today thru Tuesday of next week for Rainfall - The latest from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO BY LATE FRIDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

Potential Severe Weather Thanksgiving Week 2011

Disclaimer: I'm not trying to scare anyone, especially in light of the severe weather we had in the local area last week. I am only giving you a heads up as to what is expected to occur in areas west of us, and could possibly move into the local area. I am NOT a Professional Meteorologists

While the level of severe weather is yet to be determined for the local area, areas to our west may be in line for strong storms and possibly a few tornadoes.

Much like the weather pattern of last week where we saw tornadoes pass through the local area, the same setup is once again expected to occur.

At this time [10:17 PM 11/20/2011] I'm not looking for anything more than a few thunderstorms in the local area, as the frontal boundary and associated surface low should remain to our west. Another reason is due to the system moving through the local area during late evening and overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday. This should allow it to weaken, However this could change as the timing of the system is still in question.

Here's the current graphic from the Storm Prediction Center for 7 AM EST Tuesday 11/22 through 7 AM EST Wednesday 11/23. Pay attention to the area outlined in Brown. The local area is included in this 5% area for potentially severe weather.

Why do I point out the above 5% potential ? Because on Wednesday November 16, the day the tornado passed through Harris County, the local area was also included in a 5% severe probability, seen below.

This is not saying we will see any severe weather this week, only that the potential is there at this time.


In the lead up to the severe weather and tornadoes of November 16, I gave you a heads up on November 15. Also in that post was mentioned, "THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA COMES AROUND THANKSGIVING.". Well, after this system in mid week passes by, the next one will come in and move through the local area over the coming weekend bringing another shot of rain. It's to early to tell at this time if any severe weather will accompany it.

Video report: April Fury: 6 Months Later - Tornado Outbreak April 2011

By Derek Kinkade ~ WTVM





You can view more information, videos and images from this Tornado Outbreak on April 27-28 2011 HERE and HERE

Second Severe Weather Season

Most are aware of severe weather that occurs in the Spring.
Are you aware of the potential for severe weather in the Fall ?

The same ingredients that induce severe weather in the spring also provide for potentially severe weather in the Fall. Usually severe weather in fall spans anywhere from late October to early to middle November, usually. Severe weather can happen anytime during the year. As mentioned, severe weather in the fall happens for the same reason it does in the spring, warm air clashing with colder air as temperature differences across the US become greater.

While the second severe weather season is usually confined to the south and southeast, it has also occurred sporadically in other areas. The second severe weather season may not last as long as the spring, but the storms still cause damage and loss of life.

Here's a couple graphs courtesy The Weather Channel

Storm on October 13 2011 - Harris County Georgia

I was at the doctors office in Northern Harris county off of HWY 219 [River RD] near Lick Skillet RD. when the storm blew through about 1:35 pm. I called this storm in to the Harris Co. 911 call center.

My observations: I watched the sky darken from inside the doctors office. I knew something was coming. I stepped outside and saw this particular large cloud which was rotating in upper and lower levels. As it moved through I spotted a wall cloud. From my point of view, I couldn't see the defining area of the shelf cloud, or enough of it to verify what I was seeing, viewed in the images below. Moments later I heard the roar of the outflow winds coming from the storm which I have experienced a couple times before [Amazing Sound], which brought trees down at the homestead back in April of this year. I estimated the winds to be in excess of 50 mph. This caused the power to go out at the doctors office. I didn't notice any hail as it was raining so hard, and the wind was so strong I retreated back inside the doctors office. Which I might add is a double wide trailer, not the safest place but I had no alternative.

On my way back home I counted 5 trees down, 3 of which partially blocked 1 lane on these two lane roads I traveled. 1 across the power lines and numerous branches from large to small scattered about the roads. The route I took - River Road [ HWY 219 ] north [Tree across power lines], to Mountain Hill School Rd [Tree blocking lane in two areas], to Hwy 315 to the fork of 315 and Fortson RD [tree blocking one lane] and continuing on to West Bon Acre.
There were reports of downed tress and power lines in the Mulberry Grove area, across roads and on houses. I wasn't able to see the trees on houses or the downed power lines. Honestly I didn't look for them, I was trying to get home and see if there was any damage there and check on family members [especially MOM]. No damage at the homestead this time. I had just over a half inch of rain here at the homestead from this storm. 0.51 inches.

Click images to enlarge. Use your back button to return here.

Image credit: Andy Mason	Image credit: Angie Wright Russell
Image credit: bcorrell via WTVM	Image credit: Brandon Thomas
Image credit: Carla Horne Creamer	Image credit: Kevin Holden
Image credit: Matthew Cook	Image credit: Phil Scoggins via WRBL
Image credit: WTVM	Image credit: WTVM
Image credit: Kevin Roble WRBL	Map of roads I traveled

Storm Damage Reports from around the area.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
956 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MULBERRY GROVE          32.66N 84.96W
10/13/2011                   HARRIS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HARRIS COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORTS OF SEVERAL DOWNED TREES
            AND POWER LINES IN SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY. SEVERAL ROADS
            AND 2 HOMES HAD TREES DOWNED ONTO THEM.

******************

0154 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW FLAT ROCK          32.53N 84.88W
10/13/2011                   MUSCOGEE           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            MUSCOGEE COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE IN
            THE GATEWAY ROAD AREA OF COLUMBUS.

******************

0201 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S HAMILTON            32.73N 84.88W
10/13/2011                   HARRIS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HARRIS COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORTS OF 6-10 DOWNED TREES
            ALONG THE AREAS OF HWY 219 AND HWY 103.

******************

0207 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE WAVERLY HALL       32.72N 84.71W
10/13/2011                   HARRIS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HARRIS COUNTY 911 RELAYED A REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE ON
            ALABAMA ROAD.

******************

0230 PM     HAIL             2 S TALBOTTON           32.65N 84.54W
10/13/2011  E0.50 INCH       TALBOT             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TALBOT COUNTY 911 REPORTED SMALL HAIL...JUST SMALLER THAN
            A DIME...AT THE 911 CENTER SOUTH OF TALBOTTON.