Strong to Severe Storms Georgia / Alabama - 5/31-6/1 2012

Friday looks to be an active day for weather. We might even see some strong storms Thursday night in Alabama before the storms arrive in Georgia sometime Friday.

At this time the greatest threats with the strong to severe storms will be Hail from pea size up to quarter size, Strong Damaging winds to 50+ MPH, Heavy rains and frequent lightning. I will also add that there is a small chance of a Tornado due to variables with the approaching system and individual storm cells should they develop.

While the threat of a tornado is small, it can not be entirely ruled out. The reason for this is due to what may happen with the stronger storms [ See Link - Confirmed Tornado Lee County Alabama on May 13 2012 ]. While the best energy for Tornadoes will be to our north in Georgia and farther north, strong storms which will be coming through will be capable of spinning up quick small short lived tornadoes. I wont rule out a small tornado Thursday or Friday at some point and time in Alabama or Georgia.

At this time, it looks like Thunderstorms will increase Thursday Night, and there is the possibility some of them could be severe. Early Friday morning in the early AM hours there may still be some active storms around. Not as active as with day time heating, but still some could be strong.

On Friday as the day heats up, storms should get a little stronger by mid afternoon and continue into the night. The exact timing is not set in stone. Other factors will also be in play that may help storms begin earlier or later, be weaker or stronger, such as cloud cover and or atmosphere stabilization / destabilization from the earlier storms to our west.

Just a reminder ... Not everyone will see a severe storm. Not everyone will experience hail and high winds. Not everyone will see a Tornado. No one knows to pin point accuracy when and where any of this may happen during the event.

I'll have another update later.

Langley, Kansas EF-4 tornado on April 14 2012 - Video

This has to be one of the best tornado videos I've viewed. It will likely be a favorite for some time. Why you might ask; because there is no SCREAMING. There is no 'IT'S A TORNADO', 'OH MY GOD', 'LOOK AT THIS LOOK AT THIS'. Just raw nature at it's best without all the drama. I'm glad this monster was in the open and I hope no one was hurt.


On April 14, 2012, photographer and storm chaser Stephen Locke documented a cyclic tornadic supercell across central Kansas, eventually witnessing a violent EF-4 tornado near the Langley community, just south of Kanapolis Lake. [ Stephen's Web page - http://www.tempestgallery.com/ ]

The Langley, Kansas EF-4 tornado

Tracking Southeast Storms March 2/3 2012 - Latest Graphics

For the remainder of the night, Follow me on Twitter @CataulaGaWX and Facebook at Cataula Ga Weather.

Automatic posting of Watches and Warnings are posted at my other Twitter and Facebook accounts - Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 7:30 PM EST today, valid through Saturday morning.

Changes in these graphics from this evening at 3:41 PM EST HIGHLIGHTED HIGH RISK AREA for SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE..HAS BEEN REMOVED..Other changes in COVERAGE areas of the Moderate, and Slight risk are indicated. These coverage areas are likely to continue shifting EAST in future Updates.


Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms - Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms - Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms - Red Area, HIGH RISK area likely to see TORNADOES - Fuchsia Area.

Tornado Outlook: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. - 2% risk of a Tornado - Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado - Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado - Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado - Red Area. Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds - Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds - Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds - Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail - Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail - Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail - Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

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Just for show...

Tornado Outbreak / Widespread Severe Weather Friday and Saturday March 2-3 2012

Please folks, take this threat seriously. Since 12 AM this morning there has already been 118 total storm reports. 17 of those have been Tornado reports, 18 high wind reports of winds 74 MPH or higher [ Category 1 Hurricane winds 74 - 95 mph ] and 83 Large hail reports 2 inches and larger.

This may be my last BLOG post on this. I will be monitoring the situation in the SOUTHEAST and posting Updates on Twitter @CataulaGaWX and Facebook at Cataula Ga Weather.
Automatic posting of Watches and Warnings are posted at my other Twitter and Facebook accounts - Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 2:56 PM EST today, valid through Saturday morning.
Changes in these graphics from this morning at 12:42 AM EST now HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK AREA for SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE....Other changes in COVERAGE areas of the Moderate, and Slight risk are also indicated. These coverage areas are likely to shift EAST in future Updates.

Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms - Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms - Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms - Red Area, HIGH RISK area likely to see TORNADOES - Fuchsia Area.

Tornado Outlook: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. - 2% risk of a Tornado - Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado - Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado - Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado - Red Area. 30% risk of a Tornado - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds - Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds - Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds - Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail - Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail - Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail - Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail - Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Southeast Strong to Severe Storms Wednesday/Thursday 2/29/-3/01/2012

Not changing from my earlier thinking on the frontal passage today and tonight. See previous post HERE.

Still looking like the best chance of seeing severe storms will be from Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia Northward and into the Carolinas later this evening, tonight.

Areas south of Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia will mainly see Thunderstorms, however, a strong to possible severe storm can not be ruled out at this time. The biggest threat with any of the stronger storms will be damaging winds.

A higher risk exists in the Northern most areas of these states into the Tennessee Valley, Western North Carolina and possibly the Upstate of South Carolina later tonight early Thursday morning. A tornado or two in these areas are possible as we have seen earlier today to the west and north.

Here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued 3 PM EST today, valid through tonight outlining the areas at risk mentioned above.

Categorical Outlook : Risk of Thunderstorms Green Area, Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Risk of Possible Severe Storms Red Area.

Tornado Outlook: 2% risk of a Tornado Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado Red Area. Hatched Area / Yellow/Red : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds Fuchsia Area.

Hail Outlook Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail Yellow Area.

Severe Weather Threat still on track Saturday / Sunday for Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

My thinking at this time ... I will try and keep it simple ...

The severe weather threat for this Saturday is much like the last couple that have pushed through the southeast and local area during the past month, a low CAPE elevated SHEAR event. What this means is, while there may not be as much available convective energy [cape] as we would see during summertime thunderstorms, winds at different heights, speed and direction [shear] will make it possible for tornadoes to spin up out of the stronger storms that may move through the area. As with all situations such as this, it is not definitive this will happen. It just means the possibility is there for damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain and possibly a tornado.

Looking at data available at this time 10:56 AM 2/17/2012, it would appear things may get bumpy during the overnight hours Saturday night into the early AM hours of Sunday Morning. I know this is not what many want to hear. I wish I could control the weather and make it otherwise.

Here is what I see ..... While thunderstorms may be ongoing from late afternoon Saturday, things start to heat up around 6 PM EST. From that time, storms will continue to build as the combination of a warm front to the south pushes north, and a cold front from the west pushes east. It looks like some of the stronger storms will push through around 9 PM EST. and possibly again as the frontal passage pushes through the area around 3 AM EST. Again, this is going by data currently available. Timing will change as the system evolves.

As I have said before, no one knows to pin point accuracy where severe storms might occur, until they form. We can only watch the environment for development and track their paths.

The latest wording form the Storm Prediction Center includes the mention of a strengthening Low Level Jet stream which would help induce a Line Echo Wave Pattern and Bow Echos which are indicative of straight line winds and possible tornadoes. They also mention Embedded Supercells which as we know can produce tornadoes. Again, I am not saying a tornado will spin up, only that conditions 'may' become favorable.

Another aspect of this will be the potential for flooding in areas which are prone. 2 to 3 inches of rain are expected during this event. There is the possibility of higher amounts in isolated areas.

What we can hope for is good rain and more clouds ahead of the main line to help stabilize the atmosphere, thus reducing the severe weather threat.

See my earlier post for more information - Severe Weather Threat Saturday / Sunday - Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

As is the case when severe weather threatens the area, I will be posting updates on Facebook and Twitter as much as I can and to the best of my ability.

My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Here is a graphic from the NWS out of Peachtree City Georgia. I posted one earlier this morning from them which was released at 3:38 AM on Facebook. At that time the northern extent of the line was through central Troup county to the west. Now the line for potential severe weather has been pushed farther north.

A strong storm system will move toward Georgia bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday night. Some of these storms could produce damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain and possibly a tornado. The area of greatest threat is generally south of a Carrollton to Atlanta to Commerce line between 6 PM Saturday to 9 AM Sunday. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible across much of north and central Georgia by midday Sunday and could produce minor flooding.

Here is another graphic. This one from the NWS out of Birmingham Alabama highlighting the area likely to see Tornadoes out of this storm system should they occur.

Severe Tornado Parameter (12Z NAM) valid at midnight tomorrow night EST. Highest risk remains over South Alabama.

Severe Weather Threat Thursday / Friday - Georgia / Alabama 1/26-1/27/2012

Another heads up to the potential Severe Weather heading our way. I mentioned this threat as early as Saturday 1/21/2012 on Facebook and Twitter; since, I have mentioned the threat daily.

As with any mention of severe weather, no one knows to pin point accuracy where it might occur, until it does. The latest information and statements released give us a general idea of where and what to expect. It is up to you, the reader, to take every measure possible to keep yourself safe.

What to expect: Strong to severe storms, Possible damaging winds, Heavy rain with possible flooding, Possible hail, and possible Tornadoes. The system heading our direction is already responsible for this in Texas.

The timing on this system appears to be mainly late tomorrow night through early Friday morning.

I will monitor and continue to keep you updated through My Facebook Page: Cataula GA Weather Alerts And My Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS: All warnings for the local area are posted automatically on this account within seconds of the time they are issued.

Here's the latest from the Storm Prediction Center. Our area is in a Slight Risk for severe weather. This area has shifted since the last release. It is now farther east and north. It may be extended even farther east and north with the next release.

Severe Probability Risk: Our area is now in a 15% risk. This has been updated, as we were in the 5% risk area yesterday. I am hopeful upon the next release the percentage does not increase.

Here is what they said in their most recent statement....

CENTRAL AND NERN GULF COAST REGION...

GIVEN THE CONTINUED SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TX UPPER LOW/ TROUGH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE WWD INTO MORE OF ERN LA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FACTOR. THIS CHANGE WILL ALSO SUPPORT ANY ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN A MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED EWD INTO WRN GA AND THE REST OF THE FL PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TX LOW...THESE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE ERN EXTENSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH NOW INCLUDES THE ATLANTA AND TALLAHASSEE METRO AREAS.

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY CROSSING LA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/ PRECIPITATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK/MOIST-ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCING EWD AND ACCOMPANYING SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS PER 30-40 KT SSWLY LLJ VEERING TO 50-70 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS...THREATS FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN EVIDENT. THESE THREATS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE EWD MOVING QLCS.


Here are the most recent statements released by various National Weather Service offices covering our area, to include Georgia, Alabama and Florida.

National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE SIGNIFICANT AND WORTHY OF ATTENTION. NAM MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 500 J/KG AT 18Z IN NW GEORGIA WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EVENT
EVOLVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH SPC KEEPS OUR AREA OUT OF THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK...THE THREAT OF TORNADOES...STRONG WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS EVENT IN AND AROUND METRO ATLANTA AND POINTS SOUTH. ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE TO REPEAT OUR PATTERN FOR QLCS ACTIVITY...WHICH HAS PROVEN TO BE POTENT AT PRODUCING TORNADOES IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

You may have noticed the mention of the SPC in the above statement. We are NOW in the SLIGHT RISK coverage area.


National Weather Service Birmingham, AL
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE THURSDAY WILL BE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN 1/3 COUNTIES.


National Weather Service Mobile/Pensacola
THERE HAS BEEN CONTINUED CONCERN ON THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY...THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW/MID LVL JETS COMING INTO PLAY BEGINNING LATE MORNING THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...AND WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...EXITS EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. CAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE ARE INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH HELICITIES TOPPING OUT AROUND 300 M^2/2^2. HAVE WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.


National Weather Service Tallahassee, FL
There is a potential for severe weather Thursday evening through mid-morning Friday as the aforementioned low advances towards, and eventually passes just northwest of our local area.
Strong upper level winds and marginal instability will combine to produce a threat for damaging winds and the possibility of an isolated tornado in any severe storms that may develop.


With all that, please take this threat seriously. Every Weather Service in Georgia, Alabama, and north Florida including the Storm Prediction Center has mentioned Strong to severe storms, Possible damaging winds and Possible Tornadoes.

For weather geeks ....

Video - Chilton County Alabama Tornado Damage 1/23/2012

Uploaded by abc3340 on Jan 23, 2012
From AirLink 33/40 over Maplesville

Video - Jefferson County Alabama Tornado Damage 1/23/2012

Uploaded by abc3340 on Jan 23, 2012
From AirLink 33/40 over Center Point and Clay

January 23 2012 Alabama Tornado Radar images....

Thanks to Meteorologist Matthew East News 14 Carolina for posting these Radar Captures on his blog of the tornadic supercell that impacted Jefferson county, Center Point, Maplesville, and Clanton areas in Alabama. You can check them out here Damage was reported in Jefferson County communities of Oak Grove, Pinson, Center Point and Trussville.

In the coming days, I'll have some RADAR Captures posted I took as the storms pushed closer to my area in Georgia.

Georgia Severe Weather Threat - Sunday 1/22 Monday 1/23

First and most important - This is NOTHING like April 27 for our area. That was a generational outbreak.

Severe Weather Threat - Sunday 1/22 Monday 1/23

Timing - For our area in West Central Georgia and East Central Alabama, [ROUND #1] it looks like the weather will begin to become problematic this afternoon from 3-4 PM onward . [ROUND #2] The worst of the weather looks like it will be coming through in the early hours on Monday anywhere from 3 Am through mid morning 10 Am or so. This may and could all change as the system and day progresses. Please stay weather aware.

I do not expect storms around the local area to be as numerous as those on Saturday. I think most of the really bad stuff will stay to our north. I mentioned this yesterday on Facebook. However, should we experience a severe storm, it will likely have the same ingredients as those of Saturday. That being Strong winds, Hail, Frequent Lightning, Heavy Rain and yes, the threat of a Tornado.

When dealing with potent systems like we experienced many times including Saturday, it is really hard to pinpoint exactly what will happen, when and where. The general rule is be prepared when the mention of severe weather is forecast in and around your area. With that being said, here is what the Storm Prediction Center is showing for our area in the coming hours.


First the General Categorical Outlook. This is telling us what kind of threat the storms are and will pose. As you can see in this image the local area is not far from the Slight risk area outlined in Yellow. Remember this will shift east as time goes by. This does not mean the storm will be as strong when they get to a particular location. On the other hand it also does not show us that the storms will loose any strength as well. It gives us a general idea of what to expect in an overall picture.

Next is the Tornado Outlook. This is where the biggest threat is of Tornadoes occurring in the General area from above. As you can see, the local area is again not that far from the Green shaded area, which represents a 2% chance of a Tornado occurring in that general area. With that in mind, there is a low risk of Tornadoes in our area. That does not mean one could not be spawned just as the storms on Saturday did. We were outside the 2% area Saturday as well.

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Next in line is the Wind Outlook. This represents were you might expect strong to damaging winds to occur in a general area. Here we see the local area is well within the 5% area and just outside the 15% area. From this we can tell from what we have looked at thus far, Wind will be a larger threat than tornadoes in our area, produced from within a stronger thunderstorm should one occur in the approaching system.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Finally we look at the potential for large Hail in the given general area form above. As we can see from this image, we are well outside the threat area. This does not mean the possibility doesn't exist of hail occurring from one of the stronger thunderstorms embedded within the approaching system, just as mentioned above with wind.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

With all that said .. the biggest threat we face is possible damaging winds. Cant rule out hail or even an isolated Tornado though.


When the weather turns severe you need some way of getting Warnings when issued. A NOAA Weather Radio properly programmed is likely the best choice. Here are some alternatives.

*My Facebook Page Cataula GA Weather Alerts: LIKE IT to receive the Alerts. All warnings for the local area and then some are posted there automatically. You can subscribe via SMS if you like (text message to your phone) by clicking the link on the left side column at the bottom titled 'Get Updates via SMS.

*My Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS on Twitter: All warnings for the local area are posted automatically on this account within seconds of the time they are issued.

*iMap WeatherRadio App: This is available now for iPhone only, but an Android version will be released soon. The GPS chip in your phone knows where you are, and if you are in a polygon warning, you get it. If you are not in the polygon, you won’t be alarmed. Also, you can program fixed locations.

Slight Risk of Severe Weather today in Alabama and Georgia - December 22 2011

Possible Tornadoes, Supercells and Damaging Winds.

I dont think from what I looked at we will have to deal with any of this. This is just a heads up as to what may and can happen today. Yes we are in the month of December, but this is the south where during this time of year anything can happen, nonetheless the risk is slight but it is there.

So what do I mean anything can happen ? It was March 1 2009 when close to 6 inches of snow fell in the area. The day before on February 28 2009 a Tornado hit Lee and Tallapoosa counties in Alabama across the river. Ten days earlier in Georgia on Feburay 18 2099 at least 10 tornadoes were confirmed across north and central Georgia, as well as many hail and wind damage reports.

So you see,it can happen.

Here is the outlook for todays Slight Risk from the Storm Prediction Center.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WRN TX INTO COAHUILA WILL TRACK
E/NEWD ACROSS TX THIS MORNING BEFORE DAMPENING AS IT ACCELERATES
NEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK CYCLONE WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF
THE TX COAST...ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NRN AL...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY FRI.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH...
A SWATH OF RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK
ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU ACROSS ERN TX INTO
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
SHOULD RETARD THE NWD RETREAT OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO BISECT LA/MS INTO NRN AL BY 18Z. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
SWLYS COUPLED WITH STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT THROUGH MID-LEVEL
DCVA/LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING E/NEWD ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS PROMOTING A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

FARTHER E/SE...A SEPARATE AREA OF MORE DISCRETE TSTMS SHOULD FORM
WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THIS
SCENARIO IS INFERRED BY OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WITHIN AN AXIS OF
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND DEPICTED BY CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF-NMM AND
HRRR GUIDANCE. DESPITE POTENTIALLY LIMITED SURFACE HEATING...65-70 F
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 400-800 J/KG. 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150-250 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT A
FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES/DAMAGING
WINDS...PEAKING IN THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH NEWD EXTENT
TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT
EXPECTED AFTER DARK AS THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WEAKENS AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY DIVORCED FROM THE WARM SECTOR.

..GRAMS/ROGERS.. 12/22/2011

Isolated Strong to Severe Storms still on tack for Tuesday 11/22..

..through the overnight hours into Wednesday 11/23.

Anytime Tuesday after 12 PM through Wednesday 7 AM the potential for isolated severe weather will be present. From Bufkit soundings, here are the time frames I see the best chances of seeing severe weather in the Local Area Tuesday into Wednesday:

Per NAM : time frame for best chance of seeing severe will be 11 AM - 12 PM EST Tuesday to about 8-9 PM EST, and from 12-1 AM EST Wednesday to around 7 AM EST.

Per GFS : time frame for best chance of seeing severe will be 3-4 PM EST Tuesday to about 6-7 PM EST, and 1-2 AM EST Wednesday to around 4-5 AM EST.


Many National Weather Service offices continue to mention the 'threat of isolated severe to strong storms' in Georgia, Alabama, the panhandle of Florida, South & North Carolina.

The biggest threat still remains 'strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, and possibly a Tornado' or two.

Here's the latest from the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday 7 AM EST through Wednesday 7 AM EST... I left out the technical jargon..

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH QLCS [Quasi Linear Convective Systems] THE DOMINANT MODE AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN 45+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AS IT CONTINUES EWD...AND STORMS MAY UNDERGO SOME STRENGTHENING AS THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...BUT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE IS EXPECTED IN THE CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD EWD INTO NRN GA AND SC OVERNIGHT.

Here's the latest Convective Outlook Graphic for Tuesday 11/22/2011. The local area in now included in the 15% probability for isolated severe storms. Yesterday, we were in a 5% area.

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via the NWS Peachtree City, GA Covering the local area and areas to our north and east..

MAIN CONCERN IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FORECAST AREA DEEP IN THE WARM SECTOR... EXPECT MID-UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO PRODUCE 500-1000 CAPE INTO TUESDAY EVENING WHEN STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO NW AND WEST CENTRAL GA. THESE CAPE VALUES COUPLED WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEER AND HELICITY FROM STRONG VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST ALABAMA STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH AS THEY PUSH INTO GA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES AHEAD AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING A MAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS RECENTLY INCREASED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO INCLUDE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WASHINGTON LINE. BEST GUESS ON SEVERE THREAT TIMING IS NW AND WEST CENTRAL GA BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM...THEN AREAS FURTHER EAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT STORMS TO BE WEAKENING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BY 3-4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL GA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT... WHICH IS NOT PROGGED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS...WENT WITH A MAV AND MET BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EXPECTED NEAR OR NEW RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

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via the NWS Birmingham, AL covering areas to our West including Lee & Russell Counties, Auburn / Opelika and Phenix City Alabama....

THE NAM SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACCELERATING EASTWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE LINE SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM. WITH AN ERODING UPPER CAP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS WEST ALABAMA...THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EAST ALABAMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM MODEL IS SHOWING AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA. SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT THIS AREA WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND INSTABILITY FOR LOCALIZED STRONG STORMS.

VEERING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS BY SUNSET TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END THE THREAT OF PRE-SQUALL LINE SUPERCELLS WITH THE FOCUS FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

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NWS Tallahassee, FL covering areas to our south including southwest Georgia, southwest Alabama and parts of the Florida panhandle and Big Bend area...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHILE IT IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA. BY THE TIME THE STORMS REACH OUR FORECAST AREA...SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THEY WILL BE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

This was a follow up post on Potential Severe Weather Thanksgiving Week 2011 posted Sunday, November 20, 2011.