The short range NAM model is colder than the GFS at this time.
Showing posts with label December 2011. Show all posts
Showing posts with label December 2011. Show all posts
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Data suggesting colder temperatures Tuesday January 3 2012
Data suggesting slightly colder temperatures Tuesday January 3 2012 than what is currently forecast. At this time it's looking like Columbus might make it to 40° with outlying areas colder. I'm looking for a temp at this time of a high around 37° on Tuesday here at the homestead; might not make that. There will also be some wind, which will make it feel even colder. At the warmest point on Tuesday, it may feel like 32° with the wind chill factored in of around 15 MPH. That will vary depending on temp and wind speeds.
The short range NAM model is colder than the GFS at this time.
Click image to enlarge
The short range NAM model is colder than the GFS at this time.
Update 1 - Turning Colder, Chance of ....
Update 10:09 AM 12/31/2011 - The cold will be here, but it doesn't look like the moisture will. No snow for the area at this time on this run.
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Original post 12/29/2011
Next week it will turn colder, some of the coldest temps we have seen yet this winter season in our local area in Georgia and Alabama, and the deep south in general for that matter. For the past week I, as well as others including our local meteorologist have been watching the computer models. The models have been swinging as they do, still not yet able to determine exactly what the weather the coming week will bring. Over the past day or so, the models are coming into better agreement with each other as to the placement and amount of cold air that will infiltrate the deep south.
Just as we have seen in the recent past with frontal passages, shortwaves in varying strength have followed them bringing unsettled weather to the area. While this still appears to be the case in the short term during the coming pattern change, the quantity of shortwaves will lesson. One such SW will be moving through the area next week, mid week. The exact time is still in question as earlier models runs had one pushing through the weekend of January 7-8 2012, and now as early as the 5th or 6th of the coming week. A couple of the latest models runs even show a low pressure / closed low forming. On one hand it shows a weak low forming in the gulf of Mexico, and on the other a strong closed low forming off the east coast. I might add that model runs early on showed this happening, they backed off, and now it's back, a good sign.
So what does this all mean for us?
It means there is the possibility as of this posting for the local area to some wintery precipitation in the coming week. How much, what type and to what extent is still up in the air. Right now it looks like a dusting to an inch if it is snow. It may be just plain ol rain. It may not happen at all. There is a slightly better chance of it happening than not at this time. Why do I say that ?? Mainly because of what I read earlier from the National Weather Service in their area forecast diccussion. One from the NWS in Peachtree City, GA., and the other from the NWS in Tallahassee, Fl..
This event is still a week out and will likely change from model run to run. I'll know more in a few days, and will post an update on Monday or Tuesday of the coming week.
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Original post 12/29/2011
Next week it will turn colder, some of the coldest temps we have seen yet this winter season in our local area in Georgia and Alabama, and the deep south in general for that matter. For the past week I, as well as others including our local meteorologist have been watching the computer models. The models have been swinging as they do, still not yet able to determine exactly what the weather the coming week will bring. Over the past day or so, the models are coming into better agreement with each other as to the placement and amount of cold air that will infiltrate the deep south.
Just as we have seen in the recent past with frontal passages, shortwaves in varying strength have followed them bringing unsettled weather to the area. While this still appears to be the case in the short term during the coming pattern change, the quantity of shortwaves will lesson. One such SW will be moving through the area next week, mid week. The exact time is still in question as earlier models runs had one pushing through the weekend of January 7-8 2012, and now as early as the 5th or 6th of the coming week. A couple of the latest models runs even show a low pressure / closed low forming. On one hand it shows a weak low forming in the gulf of Mexico, and on the other a strong closed low forming off the east coast. I might add that model runs early on showed this happening, they backed off, and now it's back, a good sign.
So what does this all mean for us?
It means there is the possibility as of this posting for the local area to some wintery precipitation in the coming week. How much, what type and to what extent is still up in the air. Right now it looks like a dusting to an inch if it is snow. It may be just plain ol rain. It may not happen at all. There is a slightly better chance of it happening than not at this time. Why do I say that ?? Mainly because of what I read earlier from the National Weather Service in their area forecast diccussion. One from the NWS in Peachtree City, GA., and the other from the NWS in Tallahassee, Fl..
AFD from NWS Peachtree City, GA. - ISSUED 620 AM EST THU DEC 29 2011: THE GFS BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. WILL THEREFORE ADD CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY TO THE CWA AND KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY.
AFD from NWS Tallahassee, Fl. - 140 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2011: As the trough lifts away, temps will moderate somewhat on Wednesday. However, another potent short wave is progged to dive southeastward across the area on Thursday. We will show showers with this feature for now. However, it is not out of the question that we will be dealing with non-liquid precipitation with this system. Stay tuned.
This event is still a week out and will likely change from model run to run. I'll know more in a few days, and will post an update on Monday or Tuesday of the coming week.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Follow Up: Georgia / Alabama Tornadoes December 22 2011
In my earlier post [ 3 Confirmed Tornadoes in Georgia on December 22 2011, and the bad news is.. ] I provided what information was available at the time. I was aware of tornadoes in Alabama on December 22 2011, but no information was yet available. Below find information on the tornadoes in Alabama December 22 2011, as well as updated information on the tornadoes in Georgia on December 22 2011.
Tornadoes in Georgia Updated to add graphics and pictures.
Click images to enlarge. Use your back button to return here.
You can read the event summary and view more damage pictures at the Peachtree City National Weather Service page Here
Tornadoes in Alabama December 22 2011
Centreville (Bibb) EF-0 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Bibb County and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. An EF-0 tornado with winds of 70 to 80 mph briefly touched down 2 miles south of Centreville. Several large pines were uprooted at this location. No other damage was noted in either direction, which indicates just a brief touchdown along County Road 219. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]
Lawley (Bibb) EF-0 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Bibb County and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. An EF-0 tornado with winds of 70 to 80 mph briefly touched down between Lawley and Randolph in southeast Bibb County. Damage along the beginning of the path was only 50 yards wide. This was along Hwy 82, where only large limbs were broken. The tornado then lifted just east of County Road 36. Here, the damage was 150 yards wide with numerous trees uprooted and snapped. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]
Dallas County EF-0 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Dallas County and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. The tornado touched down approximately 6 miles east of Selma along County Road 306 where minor tree damage occurred, along with roof damage to two mobile homes. The tornado then traveled further to the northeast, to Garner and Harville Roads where several soft and hardwood trees were damage or snapped. There was also some structure damage, with one outbuilding destroyed and one mobile home that was shifted off its foundation blocks. The tornado lifted shortly after, near River Road, with evidence of some additional tree damage. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]
Columbiana (Shelby) EF-0 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Shelby County and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. An EF-0 tornado with winds of 70 to 80 mph briefly touched down in Columbiana along County Road 47 and moved northeast for 1.9 miles and lifted along County Road 25. Along its path, 2 homes were damaged due to falling trees and approximately 50 trees were either snapped or uprooted. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]
Autauga and Elmore County EF-0 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Autauga and Elmore Counties and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. The tornado touched down along County Road 57, about 3 miles northwest of Boones Chapel, where significant roof damage occurred to a mobile home. The same mobile home also sustained decking material damage and damage caused by a fallen tree. The tornado continued northeast, crossing Interstate 65 and Highway 31, where additional tree damage occurred. Significant damage also occurred further northeast along County Road 68 and Highway 143 in the Wadsworth community, where several outdoor buildings sustained structural damage, along with damage to several hard and softwood trees. The tornado began to lift just across the Elmore County line on Tram road where additional outbuilding roof and tree damage occurred. The parent supercell produced another tornado that moved through Coosa and into Tallapoosa County [ See Information Below - Elmore/Coosa/Tallapoosa County EF-1 Tornado ]. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]
Elmore/Coosa/Tallapoosa County EF-1 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Elmore, Coosa and Tallapoosa Counties and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. A non-continuous tornado track with maximum EF-1 winds of 90 to 100 mph moved across portions and northern Elmore, eastern Coosa and lifted just east of the Tallapoosa County line. The tornado first touched down on Grey Ferry Road resulting in 50 snapped trees. Sporadic damage occurred along the path with two distinct areas reaching EF-1 strength. The first area of EF-1 damage occurred on County Road 14 just east of Hwy 231 in Coosa County. Here, hundreds of trees were snapped with a damage width of 200 yards. The tornado then continued northeast, crossing Hwy 231 and County Road 22. This is where the tornado reached its maximum width of 300 yards near Hissop in Coosa County. The tornado continued northeast and regained its EF-1 strength on County Road 89 near Hwy 280 in Kellyton. Here, a large metal building was destroyed and a large 100 year-old oak was uprooted. The tornado lifted just northeast of Hwy 280 on Hix Road in Tallapoosa County. Along its path, 1 building was destroyed and 1 home was damaged. In total, approximately 400 to 500 trees were snapped or uprooted. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]
See also: Tornadoes on December 22nd, 2011 - Event Summary for Central Alabama via National Weather Service Birmingham, AL
Tornadoes in Georgia Updated to add graphics and pictures.
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You can read the event summary and view more damage pictures at the Peachtree City National Weather Service page Here
Tornadoes in Alabama December 22 2011
Centreville (Bibb) EF-0 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Bibb County and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. An EF-0 tornado with winds of 70 to 80 mph briefly touched down 2 miles south of Centreville. Several large pines were uprooted at this location. No other damage was noted in either direction, which indicates just a brief touchdown along County Road 219. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]
Lawley (Bibb) EF-0 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Bibb County and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. An EF-0 tornado with winds of 70 to 80 mph briefly touched down between Lawley and Randolph in southeast Bibb County. Damage along the beginning of the path was only 50 yards wide. This was along Hwy 82, where only large limbs were broken. The tornado then lifted just east of County Road 36. Here, the damage was 150 yards wide with numerous trees uprooted and snapped. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]
Dallas County EF-0 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Dallas County and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. The tornado touched down approximately 6 miles east of Selma along County Road 306 where minor tree damage occurred, along with roof damage to two mobile homes. The tornado then traveled further to the northeast, to Garner and Harville Roads where several soft and hardwood trees were damage or snapped. There was also some structure damage, with one outbuilding destroyed and one mobile home that was shifted off its foundation blocks. The tornado lifted shortly after, near River Road, with evidence of some additional tree damage. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]
Columbiana (Shelby) EF-0 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Shelby County and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. An EF-0 tornado with winds of 70 to 80 mph briefly touched down in Columbiana along County Road 47 and moved northeast for 1.9 miles and lifted along County Road 25. Along its path, 2 homes were damaged due to falling trees and approximately 50 trees were either snapped or uprooted. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]
Autauga and Elmore County EF-0 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Autauga and Elmore Counties and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. The tornado touched down along County Road 57, about 3 miles northwest of Boones Chapel, where significant roof damage occurred to a mobile home. The same mobile home also sustained decking material damage and damage caused by a fallen tree. The tornado continued northeast, crossing Interstate 65 and Highway 31, where additional tree damage occurred. Significant damage also occurred further northeast along County Road 68 and Highway 143 in the Wadsworth community, where several outdoor buildings sustained structural damage, along with damage to several hard and softwood trees. The tornado began to lift just across the Elmore County line on Tram road where additional outbuilding roof and tree damage occurred. The parent supercell produced another tornado that moved through Coosa and into Tallapoosa County [ See Information Below - Elmore/Coosa/Tallapoosa County EF-1 Tornado ]. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]
Elmore/Coosa/Tallapoosa County EF-1 Tornado December 22nd, 2011
National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed damage in Elmore, Coosa and Tallapoosa Counties and assessed damage that was consistent with a tornado. A non-continuous tornado track with maximum EF-1 winds of 90 to 100 mph moved across portions and northern Elmore, eastern Coosa and lifted just east of the Tallapoosa County line. The tornado first touched down on Grey Ferry Road resulting in 50 snapped trees. Sporadic damage occurred along the path with two distinct areas reaching EF-1 strength. The first area of EF-1 damage occurred on County Road 14 just east of Hwy 231 in Coosa County. Here, hundreds of trees were snapped with a damage width of 200 yards. The tornado then continued northeast, crossing Hwy 231 and County Road 22. This is where the tornado reached its maximum width of 300 yards near Hissop in Coosa County. The tornado continued northeast and regained its EF-1 strength on County Road 89 near Hwy 280 in Kellyton. Here, a large metal building was destroyed and a large 100 year-old oak was uprooted. The tornado lifted just northeast of Hwy 280 on Hix Road in Tallapoosa County. Along its path, 1 building was destroyed and 1 home was damaged. In total, approximately 400 to 500 trees were snapped or uprooted. MORE [link opens in new window/tab]
See also: Tornadoes on December 22nd, 2011 - Event Summary for Central Alabama via National Weather Service Birmingham, AL
Saturday, December 24, 2011
3 Confirmed Tornadoes in Georgia on December 22 2011, and the bad news is..
Only 1 of theses Tornadoes was in a Tornado warned area. The other 2 Tornadoes spawned in areas that had Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.
This should be a LESSON TO US ALL. Please take Severe Thunderstorm warnings seriously. Tornadoes often spawn in these Severe Thunderstorms warned areas before any Tornado warning is issued. Some Tornadoes are so quick that by the time a tornado warning is issued, the tornado has dissipated.
I created the below map using data from the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA and Iowa Environmental Mesonet. To the best of my knowledge all data used is correct at the time of making the map.
The watch area data, both Tornado Warning [red shaded area] and Severe Thunderstorm Warning [yellow shaded areas] were collected from Iowa Environmental Mesonet and imported into the map via KML file.
The Blue Place Markers indicate the beginning and end of each individual tornado path and was entered from data supplied from NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT issued 526 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2011 [Below].
View Tornadoes in Georgia December 22 2011 in a larger map
You can click the link at the bottom of the map for a larger version and associated TEXT [also below]information, or This Link, it goes to the same map.
Once the National Weather Service in Peachtree City updates their site with information, I will post in to the blog. For now, here is the text of the statement they have released...
This should be a LESSON TO US ALL. Please take Severe Thunderstorm warnings seriously. Tornadoes often spawn in these Severe Thunderstorms warned areas before any Tornado warning is issued. Some Tornadoes are so quick that by the time a tornado warning is issued, the tornado has dissipated.
I created the below map using data from the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA and Iowa Environmental Mesonet. To the best of my knowledge all data used is correct at the time of making the map.
The watch area data, both Tornado Warning [red shaded area] and Severe Thunderstorm Warning [yellow shaded areas] were collected from Iowa Environmental Mesonet and imported into the map via KML file.
The Blue Place Markers indicate the beginning and end of each individual tornado path and was entered from data supplied from NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT issued 526 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2011 [Below].
View Tornadoes in Georgia December 22 2011 in a larger map
You can click the link at the bottom of the map for a larger version and associated TEXT [also below]information, or This Link, it goes to the same map.
Once the National Weather Service in Peachtree City updates their site with information, I will post in to the blog. For now, here is the text of the statement they have released...
594 NOUS42 KFFC 232226 PNSFFC PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 526 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2011 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...EF-3 TORNADO IN GORDON COUNTY... EVENT DATE: DECEMBER 22 2011 ESTIMATED START TIME: 525 PM EST EVENT TYPE: EF-3 TORNADO ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 150 EVENT START LOCATION: 34.37N/-85.10W EVENT END LOCATION: 34.48N/-84.86W DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 15 DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS): 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE WIDE INJURIES: NONE. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE: 1 HOME DESTROYED, SEVERAL DAMAGED. A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ASSESSMENT TEAM DISPATCHED TO FLOYD AND GORDAN COUNTIES INVESTIGATED DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS FLOYD INTO GORDON COUNTY THE EVENING OF DECEMBER 22. IT WAS DETERMINED THAT EF0 DAMAGE BEGAN IN FAR NORTHEAST FLOYD COUNTY NEAR HIGHWAY 140 ABOUT 2.75 MILES NORTH OF SHANNON AND STRENGTHENED TO AN EF1 ALONG EMILY LANE JUST EAST OF PLAINVILLE IN SOUTHWEST GORDAN COUNTY WHERE SEVERAL HOMES WERE DAMAGED FROM FALLING TREES. THE TORNADO THEN STRENGTHENED TO EF3 AT THE CORNER OF BOONE FORD ROAD AND BEASON ROAD NEAR CALHOUN GEORGIA WHERE A HOME WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED. SHORTLY AFTER THIS...THE TORNADO WEAKENED TO AN EF0 AND DISSIPATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF CALHOUN, GEORGIA. PRELIMINARY DAMAGE REPORTS ESTIMATE THAT SEVERAL HOMES WERE DAMAGED...ONE COMPLETELY DESTROYED AND NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED. $$ DARBE 284 NOUS42 KFFC 232053 PNSFFC PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 300 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2011 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...EF-2 TORNADO IN FLOYD COUNTY... EVENT DATE: DECEMBER 22 2011 ESTIMATED START TIME: 455 PM EST EVENT TYPE: EF-2 TORNADO ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 125 EVENT START LOCATION: 34.246338N/-85.242012W EVENT END LOCATION: 34.3252N/-85.1413W DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 8 DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS): 200 INJURIES: 3 MINOR. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE: 20 HOMES. A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ASSESSMENT TEAM WAS DISPATCHED TO FLOYD COUNTY NEAR ROME TO INVESTIGATE DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE EVENING OF DECEMBER 22. IT WAS DETERMINED THAT EF1 DAMAGE BEGAN WEST OF ROME AND STRENGTHENED TO EF2 AS THE STORM PROGRESSED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COMMUNITY OF WALTON CREEK. THE EF2 DAMAGE CONTINUED FOR APPROXIMATELY A MILE AND A HALF AS IT CROSSED HIGHWAY 20. THE TORNADO EVENTUALLY LIFTED AND DISSIPATED JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 53 AND NORTH OF JONES BEND ROAD. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ARE OF 20 HOMES WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE REVISED AS MORE DETAILS COME FORWARD. THE SURVEY TEAM IS INVESTIGATING OTHER STORM DAMAGE AND UPON THEIR RETURN WILL LIKELY ADD DETAILS TO THIS REPORT. $$ DEESE 692 NOUS42 KFFC 231954 PNSFFC PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 300 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2011 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...EF-1 TORNADO IN COWETA COUNTY... EVENT DATE: DECEMBER 22 2011 ESTIMATED START TIME: 644 PM EST EVENT TYPE: EF-1 TORNADO ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 90 EVENT START LOCATION: 33.2664N/-84.7997W EVENT END LOCATION: 33.2735N/-84.7833W DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 1 DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS): 100 INJURIES: NONE. A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ASSESSMENT TEAM WAS DISPATCHED TO SOUTHERN COWETA COUNTY TO INVESTIGATE DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE EVENING OF DECEMBER 22. IT WAS DETERMINED THAT STRONG STRAIGHT LINED WINDS WERE INITIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TREES AND POWERLINE DAMAGE JUST NORTH OF GRANTVILLE. AS THE STORM PROGRESSED NORTHEAST...A CIRCULATION DEVELOPED AND TIGHTENED BETWEEN GRANTVILLE AND MORELAND RESULTING IN SHORT LIVED TORNADO DAMAGE. A DAMAGE PATH OF JUST OVER A MILE WAS FOUND WITH EF1 DAMAGE BEGINNING AT TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR POLK ROAD AND SNAPPING DOZENS OF TREES AS IT MOVED TOWARD DINGLER ROAD. ONE HOME ON POLK ROAD HAD MOST OF ITS ROOF REMOVED AND SEVERAL TREES ON THE PROPERTY WERE UPROOTED AND SNAPPED. $$ DEESE
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Slight Risk of Severe Weather today in Alabama and Georgia - December 22 2011
Possible Tornadoes, Supercells and Damaging Winds.
I dont think from what I looked at we will have to deal with any of this. This is just a heads up as to what may and can happen today. Yes we are in the month of December, but this is the south where during this time of year anything can happen, nonetheless the risk is slight but it is there.
So what do I mean anything can happen ? It was March 1 2009 when close to 6 inches of snow fell in the area. The day before on February 28 2009 a Tornado hit Lee and Tallapoosa counties in Alabama across the river. Ten days earlier in Georgia on Feburay 18 2099 at least 10 tornadoes were confirmed across north and central Georgia, as well as many hail and wind damage reports.
So you see,it can happen.
Here is the outlook for todays Slight Risk from the Storm Prediction Center.
I dont think from what I looked at we will have to deal with any of this. This is just a heads up as to what may and can happen today. Yes we are in the month of December, but this is the south where during this time of year anything can happen, nonetheless the risk is slight but it is there.
So what do I mean anything can happen ? It was March 1 2009 when close to 6 inches of snow fell in the area. The day before on February 28 2009 a Tornado hit Lee and Tallapoosa counties in Alabama across the river. Ten days earlier in Georgia on Feburay 18 2099 at least 10 tornadoes were confirmed across north and central Georgia, as well as many hail and wind damage reports.
So you see,it can happen.
Here is the outlook for todays Slight Risk from the Storm Prediction Center.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WRN TX INTO COAHUILA WILL TRACK E/NEWD ACROSS TX THIS MORNING BEFORE DAMPENING AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK CYCLONE WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE TX COAST...ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NRN AL...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY FRI. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH... A SWATH OF RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU ACROSS ERN TX INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD RETARD THE NWD RETREAT OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BISECT LA/MS INTO NRN AL BY 18Z. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SWLYS COUPLED WITH STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT THROUGH MID-LEVEL DCVA/LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING E/NEWD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS PROMOTING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. FARTHER E/SE...A SEPARATE AREA OF MORE DISCRETE TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THIS SCENARIO IS INFERRED BY OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WITHIN AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND DEPICTED BY CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF-NMM AND HRRR GUIDANCE. DESPITE POTENTIALLY LIMITED SURFACE HEATING...65-70 F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 400-800 J/KG. 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150-250 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS...PEAKING IN THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH NEWD EXTENT TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED AFTER DARK AS THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WEAKENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIVORCED FROM THE WARM SECTOR. ..GRAMS/ROGERS.. 12/22/2011
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Georgia Drought Update / Outlook - December 4 2011
Not much change since my last update November 13 2011. While this is the case, drought conditions continue to lesson in Georgia. The biggest reason for this is the cooler weather and shorter days.
For the month of November at my location in Harris County Georgia, I ended with 3.32 inches of precipitation. Columbus Georgia to my south ended with 3.33 inches at the airport, the official reporting station for the area. The big winner in the local area was in the area of the WTVM channel 9 studio, finishing November with 4.06 inches.
Here's a look at drought conditions in Georgia as of November 29 2011, the latest available:
Here's the departure from normal precipitation year to date ending December 1 2011:
Here's a graph showing additional precipitation needed to bring conditions back to near normal. We still need anywhere from 6 to 12 inches in the local areas. In Columbus the official reporting station for the local area, it shows a deficit of -10.47 inches for the year so far.
Here's a graph showing estimated rainfall in the southeast for November 2011:
During winter months drought conditions are out of sight out of mind due to vegetation being dormant, and as mentioned earlier cooler weather and shorter days, relating to less evaporation of moisture. Over the next months drought conditions are expected to continue due to a dominate La Nina weather pattern. The outlook for the next 90 days form the Climate Prediction Center shows below average precipitation and above normal temperatures.
For the month of November at my location in Harris County Georgia, I ended with 3.32 inches of precipitation. Columbus Georgia to my south ended with 3.33 inches at the airport, the official reporting station for the area. The big winner in the local area was in the area of the WTVM channel 9 studio, finishing November with 4.06 inches.
Here's a look at drought conditions in Georgia as of November 29 2011, the latest available:
Here's the departure from normal precipitation year to date ending December 1 2011:
Here's a graph showing additional precipitation needed to bring conditions back to near normal. We still need anywhere from 6 to 12 inches in the local areas. In Columbus the official reporting station for the local area, it shows a deficit of -10.47 inches for the year so far.
Here's a graph showing estimated rainfall in the southeast for November 2011:
During winter months drought conditions are out of sight out of mind due to vegetation being dormant, and as mentioned earlier cooler weather and shorter days, relating to less evaporation of moisture. Over the next months drought conditions are expected to continue due to a dominate La Nina weather pattern. The outlook for the next 90 days form the Climate Prediction Center shows below average precipitation and above normal temperatures.
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