Rain Sleet and Snow coming to Alabama and Georgia

A chance for wintery weather in the deep south will be coming in Thursday night into Friday morning. Get your cameras ready haha.

Best area for accumulation will be in the norther areas of Alabama and Georgia. There is likely to be no accumulation except on elevated and grassy areas in the central areas of both states as surface temperatures will be to warm.

In areas it will begin as a rain sleet mix and may change to snow briefly. In others areas it may begin as a sleet snow mix and change to all snow. Best time of this, from west to east will be between 3 AM and 10 Am Friday morning.

Heavy Rain / Flooding Issues for Georgia and Alabama #gawx #alwx

Rain moves back in Thursday Night / Friday Morning. There is the possibility by Late Friday evening .. thundershowers could be in the area but at this time it looks like mainly a rain event. On Monday there is an outside possibility conditions could come together for some stronger thunderstorms in the area. This is something that will need to be watched.

The bigger threat at this time will be heavy rain expected Friday through Tuesday, with flooding issues.

The first round expected on Friday through Saturday will likely bring rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches in North Georgia and 3 to 4 inches in central Georgia and Alabama, with higher amounts possible. Sunday looks like we'll have a short break with the next round of rain coming in on Monday through Tuesday, where rainfall amounts of an additional 2 inches could be in store. Total rainfall amounts for the entire period range from 1 to 3 inches over North Georgia / Alabama and 4 to 6 inches over Central and Southern Georgia / Alabama .




Flooding issues .... With heavy rains in Georgia and Alabama the past 2 weeks between 2 and 8 inches, the ground remains moist to wet in areas. This will not allow rainfall in the coming days to be absorbed quickly. This will cause extra runoff into low lying areas, creeks and rivers and cause them to rise at a quicker rate than normal. Flash Flooding will be likely in many areas including Roads.




Rivers and creeks are currently running higher than normal due to previous rainfall and widespread minor flooding is likely, with isolated significant flooding possible. This is something that needs to be monitored in the coming days.

Possible #Snow for #Georgia and #Alabama February 16/17 - #gawx #alwx

At this time models show the potential yet again for snow in the south. Looking at things, this is the best I've seen since winter began. Depending on where the Low pressure develops and where it tracks will have a lot to say in this. With that said, this is not a forecast yet, but only an outlook. 'Right now' it looks like central Alabama and Georgia will see more in the way of snow than areas to the north. Totals range from a dusting to a Half inch in northern areas to an Inch and a half for central areas. Even as far south as Valdosta GA could see about an inch and Mobile Al seeing a dusting.

Here is one of the tools I use to help me figure out what is going on with the weather, whether it be severe storms or winter weather. As simply as I can explain, here's what I see for winter weather this weekend that I mentioned last week. For those that don't care to read all this, at this time models are back on track showing snow in and around our area this coming weekend February 16/17.

SOUNDING/SKEW-T

Red Shows Temperature
Green Shows dewpoint
Yellow shows area of Snow Growth
Blue shows Icing

The scale across the bottom is the temperature scale in Celsius. The 0 [zero] is 32F or freezing. What all this shows is, If there were moisture available during the time shown, in this case around 6 PM Saturday, it would likely fall as Snow. Models do show moisture being available during this time, at this time.

So, what the current GFS sounding is showing is Rain beginning around 12 PM Saturday, changing to Snow around 6 PM Saturday and continuing until about 9 PM. Total accumulation for the local area at this time is about 1 and a half inches at a 10 to 1 ratio , which means for every inch of liquid water, there would be 10 inches of snow. So there's not much here, but hopefully enough to give us a little snow.

Georgia Drought Update - Slight Improvement - January 3 2013

In past weeks a Northeasterly fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has brought much needed rains to the south and southeast, where ripples / shortwaves in the southern jet stream have ejected northward every 3 to 4 days. At this time, the pattern continues with another round of rain this morning in southern areas of both Georgia and Alabama.

Since my last drought report on November 21 2012, some improvement was seen. The main areas to see improvement were in West Central Georgia where Exceptional [D-4] Drought was eliminated and Severe [D2] Drought and D4 pulled back in the vicinity of Athens, Georgia. While improvements where seen, the drought in Georgia remains persistent.

Here's a graphic showing drought conditions in November 2012 on the left and current conditions on the right.

The Drought outlook for the Southeast region of the United States for January through March shows improvement. At this time I agree with this assessment based on time of year. Late fall through Winter is generally the wet season in the southeast and with lower temperatures combined with lower sun and shorter days, is a time for regeneration of soil moisture.

While the outlook is encouraging, the past year [2012] many areas in Georgia ended with a deficit in rainfall. As of December 27 2012, Atlanta saw a deficit of 12.80 inches, Athens 9.73 inches, Columbus 11.48 inches and Macon 13.80 inches.
Here's the current data showing how much rain is needed to end drought conditions across the United States in 3 months. *Note - The end of a drought is defined by a PHDI value of -0.5. Drought amelioration is achieved when a PHDI value of -2.0 is reached.

Temperatures and Precipitation outlooks for the next 6 through 14 days show probabilities of 'both' being 'above average for the southeast US. You can see this HERE

My next Drought post will be in February but I will be Tweeting weekly updates so follow me there .. Follow @Cataulagawx

No Improvement - Georgia Drought Update - November 21 2012

Don't let the cooler weather fool you. Lack of rain in Georgia increases drought coverage and intensity.

Since my last Drought Update November 2 2012 Georgia has remained dry. Here at the homestead in Cataula, GA. I've recorded 0.68 inches of rain since November 1^st to date. Since October 1^st I have recorded 1.98 inches of rain to date. On October 30^th 2012 80.77% of Georgia was experiencing some form of drought. As of November 20^th 2012 drought coverage has spread and now 93.07% of Georgia is experiencing drought conditions. Areas of Georgia currently without drought are the Northwest and Southeast corners. Middle and West Central Georgia are the hardest hit with drought and currently experiencing 'Extreme to Exceptional' drought conditions.

Current Drought conditions on right compared to October 30^th on left.

Rainfall in Georgia for the last 30 days as of November 21 2012.

Percent of normal rainfall year to November 20 2012

Rainfall needed to bring conditions back to normal [no drought]. Georgia needs anywhere from a Trace upward to 12 inches.

CLIMATE IMPACTS - Georgia

GENERALLY 10 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL PREVAILED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE PAST 14 DAYS.

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
            LAST 365 DAYS    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA        37.22         49.73      -12.51         75%
ATHENS         37.22         46.36       -9.14         80%
COLUMBUS       37.54         46.77       -9.23         80%
MACON          32.89         45.72      -12.83         72%

RESERVOIRS/STREAM LEVELS - Georgia as of Nov. 21

CURRENT LAKE LEVELS AT THE USACE PROJECTS WERE MAINLY FROM 1 TO 12 FEET BELOW SEASONAL POOL LEVELS. ALL OF THE LAKE LEVELS ARE PROJECTED TO SLOWLY FALL DURING THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS.

LAKE       SEASONAL POOL  CURRENT LEVEL   DEPARTURE
                                           IN FEET

ALLATOONA       829          828.52         -0.48
CARTERS        1072         1070.13         -1.87
HARTWELL        657          645.83        -11.17
LANIER         1071         1059.28        -11.72
THURMOND        328          315.09        -12.91
WEST POINT      633          622.98        -10.02

U.S. Drought outlook November 15 2012 thru February 28 2013

Sources:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/monitor.html

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=dgt&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1


Follow @Cataulagawx

Georgia Drought Update: Long Term Drought Improves - October 6 2012

Recent rains during the last 14 days brought much needed drought relief for areas in North and Central Georgia. While improvement is seen, drought continues into fall for many in central, west central and southwest Georgia. Northern and southern areas of Georgia including the southeast are now drought free.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches fell across areas of North, Central and West Central Georgia in the past 14 days, while amounts of 5 to 8 inches were observed in North Central and Central Georgia where minor flooding occurred. East Central Georgia saw rainfall amounts around a ½ inch to 1½ inches.

The seasonal drought outlook for Georgia hints at 'some improvement in the coming months. This will mainly be due to lower temperatures and shorter days. However October is the dry month for Georgia. Here's the current drought conditions across the US and the seasonal outlook ..

One aspect of current drought across the US I would like to bring attention to is the drought in the Northern and Central Plains. While this area has without a doubt experienced extensive drought conditions this summer, Georgia has endured drought conditions all year. I only point this out because most large weather and news companies seem to forget about us down here in the south.

Here is an 'animated image' showing drought conditions across the entire US from January 31 2012 through September 25 2012. Notice Georgia has as mentioned endured drought since the beginning of 2012 and if you check my drought archives, you'll see including multiple years of drought.

We'll see how things go during fall and winter here in the Georgia as we really missed out once again on wiping drought out with anything tropical.

Georgia Drought Update: Long Term Drought Continues - September 21 2012

Severe to Exceptional Drought conditions continue for most of Central and areas of North Georgia. Little relief is expected in the coming month or so but there is hope. At this time a weak El Nino is beginning to show itself and is expected to persist through the remainder of the year. During an El Nino in the fall and winter months, precipitation generally increases along the gulf and the southeast. Combined with cooler temperatures and lower sun angle areas can expect to benefit from the increase in moisture due to less evaporation.

While we wait on El Nino to set up and bring much needed moisture, drought continues to worsen in areas of Georgia that have seen little to below normal rainfall. In the last 14 days some areas of Georgia saw much need rain generally in the 1 to 2 inch range, while areas of North Georgia saw 3 to 5 inches. While this was welcomed it did little in the way of drought relief where is was most needed.

As of September 20 2012 departure from normal rainfall or deficit for select areas.

Atlanta down 12.86 inches
Athens down 6.17 inches
Columbus down 8.56 inches
Macon down 10.29 inches

Georgia lakes haven't fared much better

Allatoona down 6.23 Feet
Carters down 2.50 feet
Hartwell down 11.95 feet
Lanier down 9.52 feet
Thurmond down 12.08 feet
West Point down 8.34 feet

The outlook for October shows hints at above normal temperatures and equal chances of above of normal rainfall. The extended outlook [90days] hints at above normal temperatures heading into winter and Above normal rainfall due to the expected El Nino pattern [mentioned above].

Current drought conditions for Georgia and the Southeast US as of September 18 2012

Here's a look at rainfall across Georgia and the Southeast form the last 30 days

Here's how much rain is needed to End drought in 3 months [left] and see relif [right]

Here are current drought conditions across the US

How much rain is needed across the US

Drought outlook September through December 2012

There is still a chance the southeast 'could' see a tropical system bring needed rains albeit getting slimmer as the season progresses and El Nino sets up. Hurricane season ends November 30. Looking more like drought will continue into 2013 and from there we'll just have to watch.

Southeast Strong to Severe Storms Wednesday/Thursday 2/29/-3/01/2012

Not changing from my earlier thinking on the frontal passage today and tonight. See previous post HERE.

Still looking like the best chance of seeing severe storms will be from Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia Northward and into the Carolinas later this evening, tonight.

Areas south of Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia will mainly see Thunderstorms, however, a strong to possible severe storm can not be ruled out at this time. The biggest threat with any of the stronger storms will be damaging winds.

A higher risk exists in the Northern most areas of these states into the Tennessee Valley, Western North Carolina and possibly the Upstate of South Carolina later tonight early Thursday morning. A tornado or two in these areas are possible as we have seen earlier today to the west and north.

Here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued 3 PM EST today, valid through tonight outlining the areas at risk mentioned above.

Categorical Outlook : Risk of Thunderstorms Green Area, Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Risk of Possible Severe Storms Red Area.

Tornado Outlook: 2% risk of a Tornado Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado Red Area. Hatched Area / Yellow/Red : 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds Fuchsia Area.

Hail Outlook Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail Yellow Area.

Mid week storminess - Wednesday 2/29/2012

Still need to remain on guard Wednesday as a cold front associated with a low pressure far to our north swings through, bringing with it the best chance to see anything severe. I'm not looking for anything severe in the local area, only thundershowers / thunderstorms as mentioned Sunday 02/26/2012. The higher probability will remain in North Georgia and Alabama.

My earlier thinking on this frontal passage is reflected on today's Graphics form the Storm Prediction Center [SPC]

Slight Risk area: The local area remains south of the 'slight risk' area as well as much of south Georgia and Alabama.

Probabilistic Outlook area: This is why you should still remain aware of changing weather with this system. While a 15% chance of seeing possible severe weather is just to our north, the local area and much of central Georgia and Alabama is included in a 5% risk area. Should anything come from this it will be with the frontal passage [cold front] as it pushes through.

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Looking ahead ... there still appears at this time for a stronger system to push through the area and much of the southeast Friday / Saturday. Much remains to be sifted through as far as actual strength and timing. We need to get the system mentioned above through the area before we can really get specific about the weeks end potential. So check back for updates!

As usual when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates here and on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

A couple systems to watch this week - 2/26 - 3/3 2012

Timing and strength of both systems still up in the air. At this time neither of these systems are looking real impressive to me. As far as severe potential, any thing can happen during this time of year. If I had to pick one to watch, it would be the weeks end system. Both of these systems at this time appear able to produce thundershowers / thunderstorms, the first weaker than the second in my eyes.

The first heading into the area midweek, appears at this time to be the weaker of the two. It's looking like it will push north of the area bringing showers and maybe some thunder.

The second moving in by weeks end looks a little stronger at this time [ 1:37 PM EST 2/26/2012 ], but it's still a week away. Current models hint at it being much like storms of the past couple of weeks. Some severe potential is possible but we'll have to wait and see what happens with it around midweek to narrow down the specifics.

Check back for updates.

Update 5 - Severe Weather Threat Georgia / Alabama Thursday / Friday 2/23-2/24/2012

Update #5 - 6:35 AM 2/24/2012

Quick update ... The primary threat form any storms that may develop will be damaging winds. As always in a situation such as this, an isolated tornado can not be ruled out, along with hail and lightning.

Showers and some storms are beginning to fire in Alabama around Montgomery extending into West Central Georgia. From this point on, it's anyone's guess as to how strong some of the storms today will become.

I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates throughout the day on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

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As mentioned in my previous update, Update #4 - 10:59 PM 2/23/2012. the Storm Prediction Center has 'Shifted' the areas of concern Eastward.

Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center this morning. Time frame for all Graphics 6 AM EST today thru 6 AM EST Saturday.

Slight Risk [categorical] : The local area is now well within the 'slight risk' area as well as much of Georgia.

Tornado Outlook: The local area is withing the 5% risk area of seeing a Tornado. This does not mean a Tornado will form, only the chances are there.

Wind Outlook: The local area is withing the 15% risk area of seeing damaging winds. Like the Tornado outlook above, this does not mean everyone will see this. The chances are only higher in this area.

Hail Outlook: Much of the southeast is in a 5% risk area. As with the other outlooks above, this does not mean everyone will see hail.

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Update #4 - 10:59 PM 2/23/2012

For tonight through the early morning hours Friday.

Everything still on track per my previous updates. Still looking like the stronger storms will be with the approaching cold front. I'm still not sure at this time if any storms will form in ahead of the approaching front.

As mentioned earlier it looks like the storms will hold off in the area until around 6 AM EST. That is still provided none form ahead of the front. Should storms build ahead of the front, they will be capable of producing damaging winds.

The threat remains the same as earlier; "The primary threat form any storms that may develop tonight will be damaging winds. As always in a situation such as this, an isolated tornado can not be ruled out, along with hail and lightning."

Here's the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center released earlier this evening. All of these cover the time from 7 PM EST Thursday evening thru 6 AM EST Friday morning.

Slight Risk [categorical] : As you can see from this graphic, the slight risk area covers a large area. As for the local area it cuts right through Columbus Georgia and Phenix City Alabama. Close enough to remain aware of the situation. If you scroll down to Update 3 below, You will see where this slight risk area remains through the day Friday until Saturday morning at 6 AM EST.

Tornado Outlook: As with the slight risk area above, the Tornado risk area also cut through the local area. Columbus and Phenix City are on the fringe of the 5% risk area and withing the 2% risk area of seeing a possible Tornado.

Wind Outlook: The local area is once again split, with Columbus and Phenix City being on the fringe of the 15% risk area of seeing possible damaging winds. A larger area is in the 5% risk area.

Hail Outlook: The Columbus and Phenix City area is in a 5% risk of seeing any large hail with much of Alabama in a 15% risk area.

The thing to remember from the above is all of the risk areas will continue to shift east along with the approaching cold front.

I'll be getting some shuteye and will be back around 3-4 AM EST with any updated information.

While I'm away, you can check my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

And when I online, My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

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Update #3 - 4:40 PM 2/23/2012

Timing is everything ... At this time it looks like the chance for severe weather in the local area will be in the morning hours of Friday. Chances increase form around 6 AM EST until about Noon when the cold front 'should' clear the area. The best chances for severe weather remain with any storm that forms along or ahead of the cold front.

In my earlier update below, I mentioned the local area was NOT in the Slight Risk area and didn't expect it to be later. I stand by that for today's weather. Tomorrow is a different story.

Here's a couple graphics from the Storm Prediction Center.

This one shows 6 AM EST Friday through 6 AM EST Saturday. The local area is in the Slight Risk area.

This next one shows the local area in a 15% area of seeing severe storms 6 AM EST Friday through 6 AM EST Saturday.

I wish I were a storm whisperer and could tell you exactly what was going to happen, but I'm not and can't. I'll have updates until the system passes, so check back.

**********

Update #2 - 11:45 AM 2/23/2012

Not overly impressed with the current setup for severe storms in the local area. As mentioned yesterday in Update #1 - 12:48 PM 2/22/2012 below, conditions in the local area are not as conducive for severe storms as shown a couple days ago.

My thinking today is much like yesterday. Some areas in and around the local area in the right place at the right time could still see a strong or even severe storm tonight. The main threat from storms tonight will be strong winds from embedded storms within the line of showers and storms expected to form known as straight line winds. There is also the possibility of isolated storms building out ahead of this line. Should this happen, these storms may become severe producing strong damaging winds. The primary threat form any storms that may develop tonight will be damaging winds. As always in a situation such as this, an isolated tornado can not be ruled out, along with hail and lightning.

Current data available to me shows heavier amounts of rain coming in Friday morning around 5 AM EST. Through this evening and up to Friday morning looks like mainly scattered showers and storms. That is not to say some heavier rain will not be seen in areas out and ahead of the front with the strong storms should they develop in the overnight.

The most unstable time for stronger storms at this time [ 11:11 AM 2/23/2012 ] from models are as follows:

RUC shows most instability today, Thursday evening, around 6-7 PM EST

NAM shows most instability today, Thursday evening, around 4-5 PM EST

GFS shows most instability today, Thursday evening, around 4-5 PM EST

This does not mean storms will be firing. It only shows this is the time of the most unstable conditions for storm development.

All in all I'm not expecting any widespread severe storms in the local area. As mentioned though an isolated strong or severe storm can't be ruled out. Where that might happen is anyone's guess. I'll be watching for them.

As is the case when severe weather threatens the area, I will be posting updates on Facebook and Twitter as much as I can and to the best of my ability.

My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.



Here are some graphics of interest....

The latest graphic from the Storm Prediction Center this morning:

As you can see below, the local area is NOT included in the Slight Risk area at this time, nor do I expect it to be later. Previously it was.

Here is this mornings outlook from the NWS Peachtree City, GA and associated text:

A strong cold front will interact with a moist and unstable air mass to support the development of scattered thunderstorms tonight. A few storms could become severe. The greater severe storm threat will be along and north of a La Grange to Athens line and generally between the hours of 10 pm this evening and 7 am Friday morning. The severe storm threat should push south of the area before 7 am Friday morning.

Here is this mornings outlook and threat level for Alabama from the NWS out of Birmingham Alabama and associated text:

This graphic shows the relative threat level for each hazard. The primary threat for this event will be damaging straight line winds.

A cold front will push across central Alabama tonight. The front will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few of the storms may be severe with damaging straight line winds the primary threat. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Here is this mornings outlook from the NWS out of Mobile Alabama

The latest from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center showing predicted rainfall. The local are could see 1 inch through 6 AM Saturday morning. Heavier amounts are possible.

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Update #1 - 12:48 PM 2/22/2012

The threat of severe storms Thursday night into Friday not as high NOW as thought. The timing of arrival is also in question. Looking now as if stronger storms might be from Midnight Thursday thru Noon Friday.

Models are showing a more stable environment limiting convection. While the threat of severe storms has decreased somewhat, some areas of the southeast could still see a few stronger storms embedded within the line of showers that will approach the area. The primary hazards from the isolated embedded stronger thunderstorms would still be isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail and lightning.

No new graphics from the Storm Prediction Center to add at the moment as the previous seen below still outline what is expected with 'ONE EXCEPTION'. That 'exception' being on the below Probabilistic Outlook [SPC day3 probabilistic] graphic, the 'Removal' of the 'RED 30% Hatched' enhanced area of seeing severe storms. The entire area is still in a Slight risk of seeing severe weather.

As with any weather event the closer we get the better we see what to expect. Things change day to day with evolving systems. With that, I'll continue to look at data and have more information tomorrow or earlier should things take a change for the worse.

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Original Post at 8:06 AM EST 2/21/2012

Much like the storm systems that have pushed through in past weeks, the threat of 'damaging winds and hail will be the main threats'. However, [ you knew it was coming ] and 'isolated Tornado' cant be ruled out. It seems the normal spring severe weather season is getting an early start this year and may prove to be very active for 2012.

Before I get into the specifics of the approaching system I would like to mention the last 2 [ HERE - January 26/27 2012 and HERE - February 18/19 2012 ] that pushed through the local area. Neither of these past systems produced severe weather in the local area. We dodged some rough weather both times with storm reports coming in from areas to our west and south. Will our luck continue ? Perhaps

As always, the timing, placement and strength are up in the air a bit as we are still a couple days out. It's difficult to tell where severe weather might occur to pinpoint accuracy but we do have a general idea. It looks like the more severe potential will stay north of the local area up towards Birmingham and Atlanta areas, don't let your guard down locally because of this.

At this time 7:47 AM 2/21/2012 it looks like the weather will start to go downhill around 6:00 PM Thursday [ maybe earlier depending on the timing issue ] and continuing into early Friday morning. Looks like stronger storms my impact the area around 10 or 11 pm est. I can't be more specific at this time.

As with the last storms to push through we have ample Helicity and Shear at times. Added into the mix this time is something not overly present in the last two frontal passages, that being high values of surface based CAPE. This increases the likelihood of strong to severe storms at some point and time. There will no doubt be some heavy rainfall in some areas as this pushes through.

Here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center.

Slight Risk [SPC day3 categorical] : Includes most of Alabama and a good portion of Georgia. This are will shift slightly eastward later.

Probabilistic Outlook [SPC day3 probabilistic] : This is concerning. On this particular graphic we see the normal areas of concern. What this has that is different form the previous storms, a 'Hatched Area'. This 'Hatched Area' depicts a more likelihood or enhanced area of seeing severe storms within 25 miles of a given point. This area is likely to shift eastward later.

Of further concern is this graphic for the severe potential continuing into Saturday morning for a large portion of Georgia. Not out of the norm looking out 4 days, but the first I've seen this year at 4 days.

As mentioned earlier, Rainfall will be heavy at times with some areas seeing more than others. Generally we can expect 0.75 inches to over 1 Inch in some areas through Sunday.

As with all systems approaching the area, Stay tuned for updated information.