Tropical Depression 10 #TD10, another Tropical Wave exits Africa

As for Tropical Depression 10 .. She is still headed West-Northwestward at 16mph with winds of 35mph and a central pressure of 1007mb. It is anticipated she will become a 'Tropical Storm' sometime today or on Friday. She will be named Joyce when that occurs. Currently situated at 13.8North 39.5West about 1045 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.
She should be no threat to the U.S. mainland, but the Island of Bermuda should be watching her closely as she may impact or come close to the area. Still remains to be seen but here's the latest computer models.

Also of interest at this time is yet another tropical wave which has exited the west coast of Africa. At this time it has a 10 percent chance of further developing as it continues to head west at about 15mph. You can see this area in yellow to the right in this image.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems

Tropical Storm #Isaac - #Invest96L - August 22 2012

Isaac still a Tropical Storm at this hour 'expected to become a Hurricane within the next 48 hours'. Currently located at 15.5North 57.3West about 280 Miles East of Guadeloupe, with winds of 45mph and is heading West at 18mph. The central pressure is 1003mb or 29.62inches. Isaac is showing better organization on satellite imagery and beginning to get the classic look of tropical systems. Isaac has an eye as reported by Hurricane Hunters currently investigating with a diameter of 10 nautical miles [ 12 statute miles ].

Outer rainbands are currently impacting the Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Isaac will impact the Leeward Islands Today. Some strengthening may occur before landfall. Tropical Storm winds which extend outward 45 miles form the center of Isaac will be felt before the center makes landfall. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 8 inches are expected in some areas before Isaac crosses and makes his way into the Western Caribbean Thursday morning.

* A 'Hurricane Watch' is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona Westward to the Haiti Dominican Republic Southern Border.

* A Tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe and St. Martin and surrounding Islands as well as St. Kits, Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* A tropical Storm 'Watch' is in effect for the North Coast of the Dominican Republic from Haiti Dominican Republic Northern Border Eastward to North of Isla Saona.

* Interest in and around these areas including Hispaniola and Cuba should be monitoring the progress of Isaac.
* I urge interest in Florida, the Eastern Gulf coastal areas and the East coast to remain vigilante as the forecast track of Isaac remains uncertain at this time.

Perspectivas De Las Condiciones Del Tiempo En El Tropico -
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/SJUTWOSP+shtml/220625.shtml

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems



I continue to watch [Invest 96L] in the East Atlantic about 650 Miles West-Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave has winds last reported of 30mph and is located at 11.5North 34.5West moving to the West-Northwest. As of 2:00 AM EDT 96L has a 90 percent chance of becoming our next depression or storm 'later today'. Once named it will be Joyce. The forecast track at this time remains uncertain. Next update from NHC on this system 8:00 AM EDT

I'll be keeping a close watch on both of these systems in the days to come.

Remnant Tropical Depression Seven #TD7 | #Perseid Meteor Shower

Depending on how you look at weather, I have sad news, and good news for some. Tropical Depression Seven is now classified as a Tropical Wave. Unless this Wave can regenerate it will not become Tropical Storm Gordon. Regeneration is not expected due to dry air being pulled in and modest wind shear in the area [as mentioned yesterday].

Currently this open wave is located about 40 Miles east of the Barbados at 13.3 North 58.9 West and still has winds of 35 MPH. Moving West at a fast clip of 25 MPH which doesn't help with tropical formation, and has a central pressure of 1011 MB or 29.85 inches. This will be the last update on this system. I'll continue to monitor this wave and should it come back to life I'll let you know. Although no longer a threat, tropical storm winds may still be in and around the system and may be possible across the Windward Islands through tonight.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems



On a side note: Do you like to gaze at the stars ? If so, tonight would be a good night to do so. Providing skies are clear in your area, you may be able to see the Perseid Meteor Shower which will peak tonight showering the skies with 60 to 100 meteors an hour. The best time for viewing will be after midnight, but there is a possibility you could see some before this time; I have in the past. You can read more about the Perseid Meteor Shower here - http://www.examiner.com/article/2012-perseid-meteor-showers-have-begun-peak-expected-august-11-and-12

Tropical Depression Seven #TD7 / Invest #93L - August 10 2012

Tropical Depression Seven [TD7] looking a little better organized at this time on satellite imagery. Currently TD7 is located about 1245 Miles east of the Windward Islands at 13.7 North 49.5 West. TD7 has winds of 35 MPH is moving West at a fast clip of 23 MPH and has a central pressure of 1009 MB or 29.80 inches. It is uncertain if TD7 will be able to maintain it's current structure at this time as it continues to move toward the Caribbean. There is a large swath of dry air to the north and ahead of this system with hints of some being pulled in. Remnants of what's left of Florence due north may also be contributing some wind shear in the area at this time. It seems the only thing TD7 has going for it at this time are warm sea surface temperatures. I'll keep an eye on TD7 for further development in the coming days.

######

Invest 93L is struggling at this time as it moves over cooler water and has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm at this time. While conditions at this time seem unfavorable for further development, I'll continue to keep an eye on this tropical wave.


Spaghetti Models for Tropical Depression Seven #TD7 and Invest #93L

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems

#Ernesto to make 2nd landfall Today / Invest 92L

Ernesto about to cross the coast of Mexico near Coatzacoalcos.

Currently Ernesto is located at 18.3 North 94.0 West skirting along the Southern coast of the Bay of Campeche with sustained winds of 70 MPH and Higher Gusts, moving West-Southwest at 13 MPH and this direction of travel is expected to continue Today with a slight decrease in forward motion. The central Pressure is 993 MB or 29.32 inches. Ernesto is about 40 Miles East-Northeast of Coatzacoalcos Mexico.

'If Ernesto continues his current track' he looks to make landfall in the Los Tuxtlas area of south-central Mexico with the cities of Santiago Tuxtla, San Andres Tuxtla and Catemaco in his path. Tropical storm winds extend outward 140 miles from the center and will continue to spread westward ahead of the storm today. Hurricane conditions are still possible within the Warning area this morning.

Watches and Warnings

* A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Veracruz to Chilitepec Mexico.
* A Hurricane Watch is in effect North of Veracruz to Barra De Nautla.
* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect North of Veracruz to Barra De Nautla, and East of Chilitepec to Campeche.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected with isolated areas of 15 inches in and around Tabasco, Veracruz, Puebla, and Northern Oaxaca through Friday causing life threatening Flash Flooding and Mudslides over higher terrain.

Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet above Normal Tide level is anticipated in the Warning area and surrounding coastal areas of the Gulf coast of Mexico. Large and Dangerous waves near the coast will accompany the tidal surge.

A couple Satellite images of Ernesto as of 7:45 AM EDT TODAY

Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.

 Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto



I'm still watching an area of interest in the south-central Atlantic about 1000 miles west of the southern Cape Verde Islands. Currently designated Invest 92L and moving Westward about 15 MPH this tropical wave has a 70% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression in the next day or so, maybe Gordon. I'm also watching another Tropical Wave exit the continent of Africa for possible development in the coming days as well.

Here's the current Spaghetti Model for Invest 92L as of 8 AM EDT 08/09/12

Here's a Satellite view of the Tropical Wave coming off the coast of Africa as of 9 AM EDT 08/09/12.

Invest 99L - Atlantic

Something to watch in the Atlantic...

Date: Jul. 30, 2012 6:00 Z (Monday)
Coordinates: 9.7N 34.3W
Pressure (MSLP): 1010 mb (29.83 inHg | 1010 hPa)
Wind speed (1 min. avg.): 20 knots (23 mph | 10 m/s | 37 km/h)
Location: 813 statue miles (1308 km) to the WSW (244°) from Praia, Cape Verde.
Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1012 mb. (29.89 inHg | 1012 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 200 nautical miles. (230 miles | 370 kilometers)
Radius of Max Winds: 80 nautical miles (92 miles | 148 kilometers)
System Depth: Shallow

97L Tropical Wave / Disturbance Gulf of Mexico / Remnants of Post Tropical Storm Debby

Update: All ares of interest have dissipated. For an automatically updated Tropical Weather Outlook, see the Tropical Weather Page

Original Post below

I've been watching an area of disturbed weather currently designated 97L for the past few days way out in the Atlantic. While it's a bit early for action down that way from my experience, this hurricane season as a whole at this point has been early . I'll keep an eye on this area currently designated 97L in the coming days for further possible development.

As of 8:00 AM EDT June 30 2012:

Currently designated 97L, this area of activity has a 10 percent chance of becoming a Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours. Currently located about 600 miles East of the Windward Islands, Maximum sustained winds are 29 MPH extending out about 52 miles. Central pressure was 1013MB. See image below for current computer models tracks.

An area of disturbed weather in the Western Gulf of Mexico continues to produce clouds and some thunderstorms as it moves Northward around 5 to 10 miles per hour. This area has near 0 percent chance of becoming a Tropical storm in the next 48 hours.

The remnants of post tropical storm Debby continue to show shower activity. This area has a near 0 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours as conditions remain unfavorable. Located about 575 miles South of Halifax Nova Scotia, the remnants are moving East Northeastward at about 20 MPH.

Tropical Disturbance possible Gulf of Mexico - Katia in the Atlantic - Computer Models

Models differ widely on the development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. Some bring the system in to Texas, while others bring it in to Louisiana and still others take it across north Florida and up the eastern seaboard. The only consensus, something will form in the Gulf Of Mexico.

Here is a run from the 06z GFS this morning at 72 hours out for September 3 2011. notice where the system is located in the gulf and a tightly rapped Hurricane Katia in the Atlantic. -

Here is the 00z UKMET for the same time frame, notice the system in the gulf a little farther west and south -

The 00z GGEM at 84 Hours for September 3 2011 shows the system impacting Texas -

The 00z Euro running slower at 168 hours for September 7 2011 still has the system in the gulf -

The NOGAPS running even slower developing the system in the Gulf of Mexico, showing it down around the Bay of Campeche at 108 hours September 4 2011 and dropping it all together for the next couple of runs.

These models agree that something will form in the Gulf of Mexico. They also show very well what will become Hurricane Katia still out in the Atlantic as late as September 7 2011. Where and what Katia will do is still open to interpretation, but models suggest she will miss the U.S. at this time.

Tropical Storm Jose forms, Irene weakens, AL92 Tropical Wave off Africa

Computer Models / Graphics

Tropical Systems August 28 2011

Irene : Irene continues to weaken, now a Tropical Storm so we wont talk about her other than to mention that.

AL92 is the one we need to watch in the coming days, week ....

AL92 : via National Hurricane Center

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AL92 836amedt August 28 2011

Tropical Storm Jose : At this time Tropical Storm Jose posses no threat to the east coast of the U.S. Jose is expected to track north in the coming days. via NHC -

AT 800 AM AST 1200 UTC THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY AND JOSE SHOULD WEAKEN ON MONDAY.

Jose 836amedt august 28 2011

Emily is Back forecast track / Another Tropical Wave to watch August 7 2011

Yes the fickle girl is back though not as strong as she once was. Emily is now a Tropical Depression once again after making her way into some warmer waters of the east coast of Florida.

Emily is forecast once again to strengthen a little and head out in to the open waters of the Atlantic as she was to do once before. Will she do this, I have know Idea as she has not been reasonable in her journey thus far.

Later this week we should see another wave become better organized after exiting the coast of Africa. If this loop is any indication, she may well develop in the next couple of days and be a long tracked storm. Already there is a circulation.

Tropical Storm Emily Downgraded to Low Pressure - August 4 2011

This is the end of Emily. There is nothing left of her but a trough of low pressure. Unless she regenerates on the north side of Hispaniola she will be gone for good in another day.

Last advisory on Emily:

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011
 
...EMILY DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...
  
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 75.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

For all psots related to Emily See Here

91L - Likely Tonight/Tomorrow Tropical Depression 5 possibly TS Emily

The National Hurricane Center as of 8pm EDT July 30 2011 is giving this wave a 90% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48hrs.

I believe from what I see, a Tropical Depression will form sometime in the early morning hours EDT. The tropical wave at this time is elongated along a west northwest to east southeast axis and still has no well-defined center. It appears there may be two areas within fighting to see which will remain. Until there is a defined center, it is hard to determine where this tropical systems track will take it. Computer models are coming more inline, but still differ enough that no one knows where it will go at this time.

This system is becoming better organized as seen from this infrared image.

Computer model forecast track -

Earlier posts on this system: here & here

Tropical Storm DON, 91L and another tropical wave

First a little about Don, which as I write [ 8:14 PM EDT 7/29/2011 ] is nearing landfall north of Brownsville Texas with winds of 50 mph. I was wrong. I said Don would make landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston, Texas. That was 2 days ago, before Don took a jog on a more southerly path. Hey what do you want form an amateur. Even the pros are wrong sometimes, and no one really knows where a tropical system will go until it gets there. I'm not making excuses.

With Tropical Storm Don making landfall, I will now turn my attention to a tropical wave mentioned earlier today. This wave now called 91L is located at this time about 1100 miles East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles. As of the 8pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, this wave now has a 'well defined low pressure system' associated with it. This wave is moving 15 to 20mph and is heading westward or west- northwestward. This tropical wave is now being given a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs.

There is also another tropical wave located in the western Caribbean showing disorganized showers and thunderstorm activity, moving westward at 10 to 15moh. This wave is not forecast to become a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs and has a 0% chance of doing so.

Turning our attention back to invest 91L. Should 91L strengthen to a tropical storm, it will be known as Emily. If this happens and a name is given, Emily will be the 5th named storm of the 2011 hurricane season and also put us at having five named storms before August 1st. Near as I can find this only happened in the 2005 season. Please correct me if I'm wrong here!

Other than being upgraded as far as becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs not much has changed with this feature. Early computer models expect 91L to strengthen as it moves west northwestward in the coming week. It is early and we really have no idea what 91L will do. Intensity models vary as they will. Some, the GFD and the GHM2 strengthen 91L as much as a category 3 hurricane. Others at this time keep 91L at a category 1 and still others keep it a strong tropical storm.

Models predict this tropical system to continue on it's westward path taking it near Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands. Most of the models show this system impacting Hispaniola at this time. As mentioned computer models vary and some of them show this system re-curving back out into the Atlantic after its brief interlude with the Caribbean becoming what many call a 'fish storm' [ a fish storm only affects the fish, no land mass ]. It is early and things can and will change. This is a system to watch in the coming week.

Computer model graphic -

Tropical Storm DON heading for Texas - Another Tropical Wave to watch

Tropical Storm DON still moving through the Gulf showing little change. Winds 50mph, Pressure 1000mb, moving WNW at 14mph. Another Tropical Wave 1200 miles East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles is showing signs of development. The national Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs. This wave is moving West-Northwestward at 15 to 20mph.

Via National Hurricane Center

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.