Tropical Depression Seven #TD7 / Invest #93L - August 10 2012

Tropical Depression Seven [TD7] looking a little better organized at this time on satellite imagery. Currently TD7 is located about 1245 Miles east of the Windward Islands at 13.7 North 49.5 West. TD7 has winds of 35 MPH is moving West at a fast clip of 23 MPH and has a central pressure of 1009 MB or 29.80 inches. It is uncertain if TD7 will be able to maintain it's current structure at this time as it continues to move toward the Caribbean. There is a large swath of dry air to the north and ahead of this system with hints of some being pulled in. Remnants of what's left of Florence due north may also be contributing some wind shear in the area at this time. It seems the only thing TD7 has going for it at this time are warm sea surface temperatures. I'll keep an eye on TD7 for further development in the coming days.

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Invest 93L is struggling at this time as it moves over cooler water and has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm at this time. While conditions at this time seem unfavorable for further development, I'll continue to keep an eye on this tropical wave.


Spaghetti Models for Tropical Depression Seven #TD7 and Invest #93L

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems

TS Franklin short lived, Tropical Storm Gert on the way

Here is the plot of Tropical Storm Franklin's short life..

And here is the last report

1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011
 
...FRANKLIN LOSES TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.5N 51.8W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Here is the latest on Tropical Depression SEVEN possibly becoming Tropical Storm Gert later today or tonight.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2011

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA BY TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 63.2W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL APPROACH BERMUDA
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES...BASED
ON RECENT NOAA BUOY REPORTS.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.