You can find all the information on these Storms including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..
Showing posts with label August 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label August 2012. Show all posts
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Tropical Storm #Leslie has formed in the Atlantic- August 30 2012
Tropical Storm Leslie currently [2:00 pm EDT] has winds of 40 mph and will likely become a Hurricane in the next 48 hours. Much Uncertainty remains in the track of this system due to influence of Hurricane Kirk and the subtropical ridge to it's west. This storm will need to be watched closely in the coming days for possible impact to the U.S. east coast.
You can find all the information on these Storms including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
You can find all the information on these Storms including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..
Tropical Storm #Isaac, Hurricane #Kirk, Tropical Depression Twelve [#TD12] - August 30 2012
Tropical Storm Isaac currently [11:00 am EDT] has winds of 40 mph and is expected to become a Depression sometime today. If not he will likely be downgraded sometime tomorrow August 31. Isaac continues to dump heavy rain over Mississippi at this time. Radar estimates are showing upwards of 15 inches in some areas. The current forecast track remains much unchanged and Isaac is expected to continue Northward being steered by the western edge of a subtropical ridge that is in the southeastern U.S. for the next day or so. After, Isaac is expected to turn northeast and then east and will then be post tropical or a remnant low.
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Hurricane Kirk currently [11:00 am EDT] has winds of 75 mph is likely to remain out to sea and poss no risk at this time to the U.S. mainland. Forecast over the next few days show Kirk strengthening but still remaining a category 1 hurricane. I'll keep an eye on him just in case.
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Tropical Depression Twelve currently [11:00 am EDT] has winds of 35 mph and will likely become a Hurricane in the next 48 hours. Much Uncertainty remains in the track of this system due to influence of Hurricane Kirk and the subtropical ridge to it's west. This storm will need to be watched closely in the coming days for possible impact to the U.S. east coast.
You can find all the information on these Storms including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
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Hurricane Kirk currently [11:00 am EDT] has winds of 75 mph is likely to remain out to sea and poss no risk at this time to the U.S. mainland. Forecast over the next few days show Kirk strengthening but still remaining a category 1 hurricane. I'll keep an eye on him just in case.
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Tropical Depression Twelve currently [11:00 am EDT] has winds of 35 mph and will likely become a Hurricane in the next 48 hours. Much Uncertainty remains in the track of this system due to influence of Hurricane Kirk and the subtropical ridge to it's west. This storm will need to be watched closely in the coming days for possible impact to the U.S. east coast.
You can find all the information on these Storms including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Tropical Storm #Joyce - August 23 2012
Tropical Storm Joyce has formed in the East Atlantic. See my earlier post on Joyce from this morning when she was still Tropical Depression Ten http://cataulagawx.blogspot.com/2012/08/TropicalDepression10-TropicalWave-August232012.html
Update August 23 2012 11 pm EDT - Joyce has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available
Update August 23 2012 11 pm EDT - Joyce has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression.
Tropical Depression 10 #TD10, another Tropical Wave exits Africa
As for Tropical Depression 10 .. She is still headed West-Northwestward at 16mph with winds of 35mph and a central pressure of 1007mb. It is anticipated she will become a 'Tropical Storm' sometime today or on Friday. She will be named Joyce when that occurs. Currently situated at 13.8North 39.5West about 1045 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.
She should be no threat to the U.S. mainland, but the Island of Bermuda should be watching her closely as she may impact or come close to the area. Still remains to be seen but here's the latest computer models.
Also of interest at this time is yet another tropical wave which has exited the west coast of Africa. At this time it has a 10 percent chance of further developing as it continues to head west at about 15mph. You can see this area in yellow to the right in this image.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems
She should be no threat to the U.S. mainland, but the Island of Bermuda should be watching her closely as she may impact or come close to the area. Still remains to be seen but here's the latest computer models.
Also of interest at this time is yet another tropical wave which has exited the west coast of Africa. At this time it has a 10 percent chance of further developing as it continues to head west at about 15mph. You can see this area in yellow to the right in this image.
Tropical Storm #Isaac 7:00 AM EDT 8/23/12
Last night I mentioned on my personal twitter account that it looked like Tropical Storm Isaac was jogging west-southwest on Satellite imagery.
Seems I was right after looking over some data this morning. Also while reviewing data this morning, he appears to continue jogging in this direction. So what is causing this ? A couple of things. We have a Bermuda High in the Atlantic rotating clockwise pushing from the Northeast to the southwest which is to the Northeast of Isaac, and a tropical upper tropospheric trough [Tutt] rotating counter clockwise that was to the west of Isaac. In this case the Bermuda high is stronger and helping to steer Isaac West-Southwest. You can see this on the Image below, a surface chart showing these features which I've highlighted for you.
What this means if it continues is, Isaac will likely for the short term delay interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba to his west and have time to grow and become stronger while continuing too transverse the warm waters of the Caribbean. Should this occur Isaac stands a greater chance of surviving and emerging a bit stronger than he would, once he does cross those Islands.
As for Isaac .. he is currently farther south situated at 15.3North 64.0West and is weaker with winds of 40mph this morning. He is moving to the West at 12mph and has a central pressure of 1004mb.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems
Computer models are all over the place at last look as they try to get a handle on him. So ... at this time the future track of Isaac remains uncertain for this reason and some influence from what was mentioned above. Florida, the Eastern Gulf coast and the Southeast Atlantic coastal states should continue to monitor Isaac. I think by Friday I should have a better idea where Isaac is going as far as exact location.
Several National Weather Service offices across the southeast will be releasing radiosondes [weather balloons] into the atmosphere every six hours beginning Friday to get a better handle on the trough over the southeast and the Bermuda high in the Atlantic. Until they and I have a better handle on things, I'm sticking with my previous thoughts of this storm going up the spine of Florida or there about and heading to the East Northeast. I am not one to chase computer models when they shift the track every run.
Interesting, Satellite shows#Isaac jog to west southwest 11:15 PM EDT last night. ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl…
— Ed Quinn (@CataulaGaWX) August 23, 2012
Seems I was right after looking over some data this morning. Also while reviewing data this morning, he appears to continue jogging in this direction. So what is causing this ? A couple of things. We have a Bermuda High in the Atlantic rotating clockwise pushing from the Northeast to the southwest which is to the Northeast of Isaac, and a tropical upper tropospheric trough [Tutt] rotating counter clockwise that was to the west of Isaac. In this case the Bermuda high is stronger and helping to steer Isaac West-Southwest. You can see this on the Image below, a surface chart showing these features which I've highlighted for you.
What this means if it continues is, Isaac will likely for the short term delay interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba to his west and have time to grow and become stronger while continuing too transverse the warm waters of the Caribbean. Should this occur Isaac stands a greater chance of surviving and emerging a bit stronger than he would, once he does cross those Islands.
As for Isaac .. he is currently farther south situated at 15.3North 64.0West and is weaker with winds of 40mph this morning. He is moving to the West at 12mph and has a central pressure of 1004mb.
Computer models are all over the place at last look as they try to get a handle on him. So ... at this time the future track of Isaac remains uncertain for this reason and some influence from what was mentioned above. Florida, the Eastern Gulf coast and the Southeast Atlantic coastal states should continue to monitor Isaac. I think by Friday I should have a better idea where Isaac is going as far as exact location.
Several National Weather Service offices across the southeast will be releasing radiosondes [weather balloons] into the atmosphere every six hours beginning Friday to get a better handle on the trough over the southeast and the Bermuda high in the Atlantic. Until they and I have a better handle on things, I'm sticking with my previous thoughts of this storm going up the spine of Florida or there about and heading to the East Northeast. I am not one to chase computer models when they shift the track every run.
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Tropical Storm #Isaac - #Invest96L - August 22 2012
Isaac still a Tropical Storm at this hour 'expected to become a Hurricane within the next 48 hours'. Currently located at 15.5North 57.3West about 280 Miles East of Guadeloupe, with winds of 45mph and is heading West at 18mph. The central pressure is 1003mb or 29.62inches. Isaac is showing better organization on satellite imagery and beginning to get the classic look of tropical systems. Isaac has an eye as reported by Hurricane Hunters currently investigating with a diameter of 10 nautical miles [ 12 statute miles ].
Outer rainbands are currently impacting the Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Isaac will impact the Leeward Islands Today. Some strengthening may occur before landfall. Tropical Storm winds which extend outward 45 miles form the center of Isaac will be felt before the center makes landfall. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 8 inches are expected in some areas before Isaac crosses and makes his way into the Western Caribbean Thursday morning.
* A 'Hurricane Watch' is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona Westward to the Haiti Dominican Republic Southern Border.
* A Tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe and St. Martin and surrounding Islands as well as St. Kits, Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
* A tropical Storm 'Watch' is in effect for the North Coast of the Dominican Republic from Haiti Dominican Republic Northern Border Eastward to North of Isla Saona.
* Interest in and around these areas including Hispaniola and Cuba should be monitoring the progress of Isaac.
* I urge interest in Florida, the Eastern Gulf coastal areas and the East coast to remain vigilante as the forecast track of Isaac remains uncertain at this time.
Perspectivas De Las Condiciones Del Tiempo En El Tropico -
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/SJUTWOSP+shtml/220625.shtml
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems
I continue to watch [Invest 96L] in the East Atlantic about 650 Miles West-Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave has winds last reported of 30mph and is located at 11.5North 34.5West moving to the West-Northwest. As of 2:00 AM EDT 96L has a 90 percent chance of becoming our next depression or storm 'later today'. Once named it will be Joyce. The forecast track at this time remains uncertain. Next update from NHC on this system 8:00 AM EDT
I'll be keeping a close watch on both of these systems in the days to come.
Outer rainbands are currently impacting the Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Isaac will impact the Leeward Islands Today. Some strengthening may occur before landfall. Tropical Storm winds which extend outward 45 miles form the center of Isaac will be felt before the center makes landfall. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 8 inches are expected in some areas before Isaac crosses and makes his way into the Western Caribbean Thursday morning.
* A 'Hurricane Watch' is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona Westward to the Haiti Dominican Republic Southern Border.
* A Tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe and St. Martin and surrounding Islands as well as St. Kits, Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
* A tropical Storm 'Watch' is in effect for the North Coast of the Dominican Republic from Haiti Dominican Republic Northern Border Eastward to North of Isla Saona.
* Interest in and around these areas including Hispaniola and Cuba should be monitoring the progress of Isaac.
* I urge interest in Florida, the Eastern Gulf coastal areas and the East coast to remain vigilante as the forecast track of Isaac remains uncertain at this time.
Perspectivas De Las Condiciones Del Tiempo En El Tropico -
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/SJUTWOSP+shtml/220625.shtml
I continue to watch [Invest 96L] in the East Atlantic about 650 Miles West-Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave has winds last reported of 30mph and is located at 11.5North 34.5West moving to the West-Northwest. As of 2:00 AM EDT 96L has a 90 percent chance of becoming our next depression or storm 'later today'. Once named it will be Joyce. The forecast track at this time remains uncertain. Next update from NHC on this system 8:00 AM EDT
I'll be keeping a close watch on both of these systems in the days to come.
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Tropical Depression Nine forms [#TD9]; #TD10 on his tail ?
We now have Tropical Depression Nine in the Atlantic. It is still early and the forecast track remains uncertain at this time as to possible impacts on the U.S. mainland. We do know that TD Nine is headed for the Lesser Antillies and the Caribbean. We also know TD Nine is expected to strengthen and become Tropical Storm Isaac Today. Once passed the Lesser Antilles and in the Caribbean, it is expected Tropical Storm Isaac will become Hurricane Isaac sometime Thursday.
As of 8:00 AM EDT TD 9 has winds of 35 MPH and is headed West at 20 mph. Located at 15.1North 51.8West or about 645 miles East of Guadeloupe. TD 9 is expected to continue moving west for the next couple of days with a slight turn Northwestward there after.
Here's the latest computer model plot for what is Tropical Depression Nine at 8:00 Am EDT August 21, 2012. You can find all information on this System on the Tropical Weather Page. Information updated Automatically.
Hot on the heals of TD Nine is Invest 96L. As of 8:00 AM EDT this morning, this tropical wave has a 60% chance of further development. Will it become Tropical Depression Ten ? Will it become Tropical Storm Joyce ? Time will tell. I'm also watching 95L off the coast of Mexico in the Gulf. This system should meander for a few days before dissipating. I keep an eye on it just in case.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems
Here's the latest computer model for 96L as of 8:00 AM EDT August 12, 2012.
Here's something I Tweeted last night. Figured I would post it here for kicks.
As of 8:00 AM EDT TD 9 has winds of 35 MPH and is headed West at 20 mph. Located at 15.1North 51.8West or about 645 miles East of Guadeloupe. TD 9 is expected to continue moving west for the next couple of days with a slight turn Northwestward there after.
Here's the latest computer model plot for what is Tropical Depression Nine at 8:00 Am EDT August 21, 2012. You can find all information on this System on the Tropical Weather Page. Information updated Automatically.
Hot on the heals of TD Nine is Invest 96L. As of 8:00 AM EDT this morning, this tropical wave has a 60% chance of further development. Will it become Tropical Depression Ten ? Will it become Tropical Storm Joyce ? Time will tell. I'm also watching 95L off the coast of Mexico in the Gulf. This system should meander for a few days before dissipating. I keep an eye on it just in case.
Here's the latest computer model for 96L as of 8:00 AM EDT August 12, 2012.
Here's something I Tweeted last night. Figured I would post it here for kicks.
I do wonder if
— Ed Quinn (@CataulaGaWX) August 21, 2012#96L will become Isaac before#94L . If not I think Joyce will be riding the tail of Isaac soon. twitter.com/CataulaGaWX/st…
Monday, August 20, 2012
Catching up after busy times ...
Between forecasting and monitoring weather with the 'team' during the Dew Tour in Ocean City Maryland, doctors appointments and life, I've had little time to update the blog. Glad there were no major weather events for the south, but that may be a coming.
During my absence we had 'Tropical Storm Florence' which dissipated.
We had 'Tropical Storm Helene' which formed from the Remnants of Tropical Depression Seven TD7, which then moved into Mexico this weekend August 18 2012 becoming Post Tropical and dissipating.
Then came 'Hurricane Gordon' which at my last look before getting busy was Invest 92L. Gordon re-curved away for the U.S. and pretty much lost it becoming a tropical depression. Gordon then regenerated into a hurricane and is now August 20 2012 a tropical storm impacting the Azores.
Next on the list is 'Isaac' currently Invest 94L. I'll be keeping a close eye on this one and the tropical page will be updated once it is named likely in the next 24 hours.
During my absence we had 'Tropical Storm Florence' which dissipated.
We had 'Tropical Storm Helene' which formed from the Remnants of Tropical Depression Seven TD7, which then moved into Mexico this weekend August 18 2012 becoming Post Tropical and dissipating.
Then came 'Hurricane Gordon' which at my last look before getting busy was Invest 92L. Gordon re-curved away for the U.S. and pretty much lost it becoming a tropical depression. Gordon then regenerated into a hurricane and is now August 20 2012 a tropical storm impacting the Azores.
Next on the list is 'Isaac' currently Invest 94L. I'll be keeping a close eye on this one and the tropical page will be updated once it is named likely in the next 24 hours.
Saturday, August 11, 2012
Remnant Tropical Depression Seven #TD7 | #Perseid Meteor Shower
Depending on how you look at weather, I have sad news, and good news for some. Tropical Depression Seven is now classified as a Tropical Wave. Unless this Wave can regenerate it will not become Tropical Storm Gordon. Regeneration is not expected due to dry air being pulled in and modest wind shear in the area [as mentioned yesterday].
Currently this open wave is located about 40 Miles east of the Barbados at 13.3 North 58.9 West and still has winds of 35 MPH. Moving West at a fast clip of 25 MPH which doesn't help with tropical formation, and has a central pressure of 1011 MB or 29.85 inches. This will be the last update on this system. I'll continue to monitor this wave and should it come back to life I'll let you know. Although no longer a threat, tropical storm winds may still be in and around the system and may be possible across the Windward Islands through tonight.
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems
On a side note: Do you like to gaze at the stars ? If so, tonight would be a good night to do so. Providing skies are clear in your area, you may be able to see the Perseid Meteor Shower which will peak tonight showering the skies with 60 to 100 meteors an hour. The best time for viewing will be after midnight, but there is a possibility you could see some before this time; I have in the past. You can read more about the Perseid Meteor Shower here - http://www.examiner.com/article/2012-perseid-meteor-showers-have-begun-peak-expected-august-11-and-12
Currently this open wave is located about 40 Miles east of the Barbados at 13.3 North 58.9 West and still has winds of 35 MPH. Moving West at a fast clip of 25 MPH which doesn't help with tropical formation, and has a central pressure of 1011 MB or 29.85 inches. This will be the last update on this system. I'll continue to monitor this wave and should it come back to life I'll let you know. Although no longer a threat, tropical storm winds may still be in and around the system and may be possible across the Windward Islands through tonight.
On a side note: Do you like to gaze at the stars ? If so, tonight would be a good night to do so. Providing skies are clear in your area, you may be able to see the Perseid Meteor Shower which will peak tonight showering the skies with 60 to 100 meteors an hour. The best time for viewing will be after midnight, but there is a possibility you could see some before this time; I have in the past. You can read more about the Perseid Meteor Shower here - http://www.examiner.com/article/2012-perseid-meteor-showers-have-begun-peak-expected-august-11-and-12
Friday, August 10, 2012
Tropical Depression Seven #TD7 / Invest #93L - August 10 2012
Tropical Depression Seven [TD7] looking a little better organized at this time on satellite imagery. Currently TD7 is located about 1245 Miles east of the Windward Islands at 13.7 North 49.5 West. TD7 has winds of 35 MPH is moving West at a fast clip of 23 MPH and has a central pressure of 1009 MB or 29.80 inches. It is uncertain if TD7 will be able to maintain it's current structure at this time as it continues to move toward the Caribbean. There is a large swath of dry air to the north and ahead of this system with hints of some being pulled in. Remnants of what's left of Florence due north may also be contributing some wind shear in the area at this time. It seems the only thing TD7 has going for it at this time are warm sea surface temperatures. I'll keep an eye on TD7 for further development in the coming days.
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Invest 93L is struggling at this time as it moves over cooler water and has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm at this time. While conditions at this time seem unfavorable for further development, I'll continue to keep an eye on this tropical wave.
Spaghetti Models for Tropical Depression Seven #TD7 and Invest #93L
See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems
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Invest 93L is struggling at this time as it moves over cooler water and has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm at this time. While conditions at this time seem unfavorable for further development, I'll continue to keep an eye on this tropical wave.
Spaghetti Models for Tropical Depression Seven #TD7 and Invest #93L
Thursday, August 9, 2012
#Ernesto to make 2nd landfall Today / Invest 92L
Ernesto about to cross the coast of Mexico near Coatzacoalcos.
Currently Ernesto is located at 18.3 North 94.0 West skirting along the Southern coast of the Bay of Campeche with sustained winds of 70 MPH and Higher Gusts, moving West-Southwest at 13 MPH and this direction of travel is expected to continue Today with a slight decrease in forward motion. The central Pressure is 993 MB or 29.32 inches. Ernesto is about 40 Miles East-Northeast of Coatzacoalcos Mexico.
'If Ernesto continues his current track' he looks to make landfall in the Los Tuxtlas area of south-central Mexico with the cities of Santiago Tuxtla, San Andres Tuxtla and Catemaco in his path. Tropical storm winds extend outward 140 miles from the center and will continue to spread westward ahead of the storm today. Hurricane conditions are still possible within the Warning area this morning.
Watches and Warnings
* A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Veracruz to Chilitepec Mexico.
* A Hurricane Watch is in effect North of Veracruz to Barra De Nautla.
* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect North of Veracruz to Barra De Nautla, and East of Chilitepec to Campeche.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected with isolated areas of 15 inches in and around Tabasco, Veracruz, Puebla, and Northern Oaxaca through Friday causing life threatening Flash Flooding and Mudslides over higher terrain.
Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet above Normal Tide level is anticipated in the Warning area and surrounding coastal areas of the Gulf coast of Mexico. Large and Dangerous waves near the coast will accompany the tidal surge.
A couple Satellite images of Ernesto as of 7:45 AM EDT TODAY
Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.
Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto
I'm still watching an area of interest in the south-central Atlantic about 1000 miles west of the southern Cape Verde Islands. Currently designated Invest 92L and moving Westward about 15 MPH this tropical wave has a 70% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression in the next day or so, maybe Gordon. I'm also watching another Tropical Wave exit the continent of Africa for possible development in the coming days as well.
Here's the current Spaghetti Model for Invest 92L as of 8 AM EDT 08/09/12
Here's a Satellite view of the Tropical Wave coming off the coast of Africa as of 9 AM EDT 08/09/12.
Currently Ernesto is located at 18.3 North 94.0 West skirting along the Southern coast of the Bay of Campeche with sustained winds of 70 MPH and Higher Gusts, moving West-Southwest at 13 MPH and this direction of travel is expected to continue Today with a slight decrease in forward motion. The central Pressure is 993 MB or 29.32 inches. Ernesto is about 40 Miles East-Northeast of Coatzacoalcos Mexico.
'If Ernesto continues his current track' he looks to make landfall in the Los Tuxtlas area of south-central Mexico with the cities of Santiago Tuxtla, San Andres Tuxtla and Catemaco in his path. Tropical storm winds extend outward 140 miles from the center and will continue to spread westward ahead of the storm today. Hurricane conditions are still possible within the Warning area this morning.
Watches and Warnings
* A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Veracruz to Chilitepec Mexico.
* A Hurricane Watch is in effect North of Veracruz to Barra De Nautla.
* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect North of Veracruz to Barra De Nautla, and East of Chilitepec to Campeche.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected with isolated areas of 15 inches in and around Tabasco, Veracruz, Puebla, and Northern Oaxaca through Friday causing life threatening Flash Flooding and Mudslides over higher terrain.
Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet above Normal Tide level is anticipated in the Warning area and surrounding coastal areas of the Gulf coast of Mexico. Large and Dangerous waves near the coast will accompany the tidal surge.
A couple Satellite images of Ernesto as of 7:45 AM EDT TODAY
Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.
I'm still watching an area of interest in the south-central Atlantic about 1000 miles west of the southern Cape Verde Islands. Currently designated Invest 92L and moving Westward about 15 MPH this tropical wave has a 70% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression in the next day or so, maybe Gordon. I'm also watching another Tropical Wave exit the continent of Africa for possible development in the coming days as well.
Here's the current Spaghetti Model for Invest 92L as of 8 AM EDT 08/09/12
Here's a Satellite view of the Tropical Wave coming off the coast of Africa as of 9 AM EDT 08/09/12.
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Tropical Storm #Ernesto has his eye on the Yucatan Peninsula
Once again like yesterday morning Ernesto is showing a build up of convection around his core. Currently Ernesto is still headed toward the Yucatan Peninsula, located at 17.8 North 84.4 West and has sustained winds of 65 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West-Northwest at 13 MPH. The central Pressure is 989 MB or 29.20 inches. Ernesto is about 180 miles Northeast of Isla Roatan Honduras and 250 miles East of Belize City. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center mostly to the Northeast and East of the center.
Ernesto is still expected to become a Category 1 Hurricane during the day today before making his first landfall late tonight or early Wednesday morning on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula around Belize and Quintana Roo. At this time, the strength of Ernesto at landfall is still in question as well as the exact time of landfall. Land fall should occur as mentioned Late tonight Tuesday or during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Even if Ernesto does not become a Hurricane he will be a Strong Tropical Storm.
Once Ernesto makes landfall he is expected to continue moving across the Yucatan Peninsula weakening slightly and emerge in the Bay of Campeche sometime late Wednesday evening or night. The timing remains uncertain as well as Ernesto's strength once back over water due to his interaction with land.
Once back over water in the Bay of Campeche the possibility exists that Ernesto may regain some strength before making his second landfall on the east coast of Mexico likely between Tampico and Veracruz late Thursday night or early Friday morning. Again the timing on this is not set in stone as we have no idea what Ernesto will do, or how long he will remain over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.
Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto
Ernesto WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS OF 8:00 AM EDT 8/7/2012
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
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On a side note: I'm watching Invest 92L in the Western Atlantic around the Cape Verde Islands. At this time this Tropical Wave has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.
Ernesto is still expected to become a Category 1 Hurricane during the day today before making his first landfall late tonight or early Wednesday morning on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula around Belize and Quintana Roo. At this time, the strength of Ernesto at landfall is still in question as well as the exact time of landfall. Land fall should occur as mentioned Late tonight Tuesday or during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Even if Ernesto does not become a Hurricane he will be a Strong Tropical Storm.
Once Ernesto makes landfall he is expected to continue moving across the Yucatan Peninsula weakening slightly and emerge in the Bay of Campeche sometime late Wednesday evening or night. The timing remains uncertain as well as Ernesto's strength once back over water due to his interaction with land.
Once back over water in the Bay of Campeche the possibility exists that Ernesto may regain some strength before making his second landfall on the east coast of Mexico likely between Tampico and Veracruz late Thursday night or early Friday morning. Again the timing on this is not set in stone as we have no idea what Ernesto will do, or how long he will remain over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.
Ernesto WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS OF 8:00 AM EDT 8/7/2012
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
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On a side note: I'm watching Invest 92L in the Western Atlantic around the Cape Verde Islands. At this time this Tropical Wave has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.
Monday, August 6, 2012
Tropical Storm #Ernesto expected to become a Hurricane TONIGHT
Update 11 AM EDT ERNESTO STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT
See Also - Ernesto expected to make landfall in or around Belize
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 80.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS / NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS / GUATEMALA BORDER NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.
Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto / Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence
See Also - Ernesto expected to make landfall in or around Belize
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 80.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS / NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS / GUATEMALA BORDER NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.
#Ernesto expected to make landfall in or around Belize / TD #Florence 8/06/2012
First and foremost Watches and Warnings...
INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS OF 8:00 AM EDT...
* A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS / NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
* A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
* A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...GRAND CAYMAN...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
Tropical Storm Ernesto no threat to the U.S.....Ernesto looking stronger on satellite at this hour with deep convection beginning to build around the center and on his eastern side. Currently Ernesto is located at 15.2 North 81.0 West about 145 Miles EAST of Cabo Gracias A Dios on the Honduras / Nicaragua border and has sustained winds of 50 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West at 12 MPH. The central Pressure is 1003 MB or 29.62 inches. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.
Ernesto is expected to slowly strengthen in the short term. In the long term over the next 36 to 48 hours Models show Ernesto 'approaching' Hurricane Strength and make a turn to the West-Northwest. Ernesto is 'still' expected to make landfall in or around Belize along the southern Yucatan. From there Ernesto will cross the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge in the Bay of Campeche and head toward Mexico. Timing and strength of Ernesto at landfall remain uncertain but feel the first landfall in or around Belize will occur in about 48 hours and a landfall in 'Central or South Mexico' in about 90 hours.
Here's the most recent Model Plot for Tropical Storm Ernesto
Florence NOW a Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression Florence continues to weaken at this hour and is expected to further weaken in the coming days becoming a remnant Low in the next few days. Currently Florence is located at 16.2 North 38.8 West about 1610 Miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands and has sustained winds of 35 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West at 12 MPH. The central Pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 inches. We'll keep an eye on her over the next few days.
Here's the most recent Model Plot for Tropical Depression Florence
Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.
Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Depression Florence
INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS OF 8:00 AM EDT...
* A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS / NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
* A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
* A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...GRAND CAYMAN...THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
Tropical Storm Ernesto no threat to the U.S.....Ernesto looking stronger on satellite at this hour with deep convection beginning to build around the center and on his eastern side. Currently Ernesto is located at 15.2 North 81.0 West about 145 Miles EAST of Cabo Gracias A Dios on the Honduras / Nicaragua border and has sustained winds of 50 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West at 12 MPH. The central Pressure is 1003 MB or 29.62 inches. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.
Ernesto is expected to slowly strengthen in the short term. In the long term over the next 36 to 48 hours Models show Ernesto 'approaching' Hurricane Strength and make a turn to the West-Northwest. Ernesto is 'still' expected to make landfall in or around Belize along the southern Yucatan. From there Ernesto will cross the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge in the Bay of Campeche and head toward Mexico. Timing and strength of Ernesto at landfall remain uncertain but feel the first landfall in or around Belize will occur in about 48 hours and a landfall in 'Central or South Mexico' in about 90 hours.
Here's the most recent Model Plot for Tropical Storm Ernesto
Florence NOW a Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression Florence continues to weaken at this hour and is expected to further weaken in the coming days becoming a remnant Low in the next few days. Currently Florence is located at 16.2 North 38.8 West about 1610 Miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands and has sustained winds of 35 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West at 12 MPH. The central Pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 inches. We'll keep an eye on her over the next few days.
Update 11:00 AM EDT - FLORENCE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
LOCATION...16.4N 40.2W
ABOUT 1515 MI...2440 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
This will be the last Update on Florence.
Here's the most recent Model Plot for Tropical Depression Florence
Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Depression Six / Florida Disturbance 91L
UPDATE 7:48 AM 8/4/2012 Tropical Depression Six is NOW Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Ernesto
Ernesto continues his Westward track at this hour. As of 11 PM EDT Ernesto has winds of 50 MPH and is Moving West at 18 MPH with a Central Pressure of 1003 MB / 29.62 inches. The current position of Ernesto is 13.9 North 65.6 West for those plotting along.
At this time Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to Maintain his current track, forward speed and intensity for the next couple of days. On his current track Ernesto will move through the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea and approach Jamaica on Sunday. Interests in Jamaica should monitor Ernesto closely. A 'Tropical Storm Watch may be Issued' for areas of Jamaica on Saturday.
Forecast models show Ernesto entering the southeast Gulf of Mexico Monday or Tuesday possibly becoming a Weak Hurricane before making landfall or skirting the Yucatan Peninsula. 'Much remains uncertain at this time' if in fact Ernesto will maintain the westward track and intensity during this time and into the coming week. We urge all along the U.S. Gulf Coast to remain vigilant!
Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Storm Ernesto as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.
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Tropical Depression SIX UPDATE 7:48 AM 8/4/2012 Tropical Depression Six is NOW Tropical Storm Florence
Farther out in the Atlantic offshore of Africa about 240 Miles West Southwest of the Southern most Cape Verde Islands we have newly developed 'Tropical Depression SIX'. Currently Located at 13.8 North 27.8 West .. TD6 has sustained winds around 35 MPH with gusts around 45 MPH and is moving to the West Northwest at about 16 MPH. The central pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 Inches
Currently this Well defined Low Pressure Area has gotten it's act together, however drier air and cooler waters may inhibit further development in the coming days as it moves West Northwestward. I'll be watching this system in the days ahead.
Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.
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Florida Disturbance 91L
Closer to home we have a disturbance off the Southeast Coast of Florida. Currently designated Invest 91L. Computer models suggest this disturbance will move North / Northeast in the coming days and interact with land late Saturday or Sunday somewhere along South Florida possibly crossing and re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico. 'Much remains uncertain' if this disturbance has enough time to become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm due to it's current location adjacent to the Florida Peninsula. One thing is certain, it will be a rainmaker.
Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 2 PM EDT August 3 2012.
######
Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.
Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Ernesto
Ernesto continues his Westward track at this hour. As of 11 PM EDT Ernesto has winds of 50 MPH and is Moving West at 18 MPH with a Central Pressure of 1003 MB / 29.62 inches. The current position of Ernesto is 13.9 North 65.6 West for those plotting along.
At this time Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to Maintain his current track, forward speed and intensity for the next couple of days. On his current track Ernesto will move through the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea and approach Jamaica on Sunday. Interests in Jamaica should monitor Ernesto closely. A 'Tropical Storm Watch may be Issued' for areas of Jamaica on Saturday.
Forecast models show Ernesto entering the southeast Gulf of Mexico Monday or Tuesday possibly becoming a Weak Hurricane before making landfall or skirting the Yucatan Peninsula. 'Much remains uncertain at this time' if in fact Ernesto will maintain the westward track and intensity during this time and into the coming week. We urge all along the U.S. Gulf Coast to remain vigilant!
Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Storm Ernesto as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.
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Tropical Depression SIX UPDATE 7:48 AM 8/4/2012 Tropical Depression Six is NOW Tropical Storm Florence
Farther out in the Atlantic offshore of Africa about 240 Miles West Southwest of the Southern most Cape Verde Islands we have newly developed 'Tropical Depression SIX'. Currently Located at 13.8 North 27.8 West .. TD6 has sustained winds around 35 MPH with gusts around 45 MPH and is moving to the West Northwest at about 16 MPH. The central pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 Inches
Currently this Well defined Low Pressure Area has gotten it's act together, however drier air and cooler waters may inhibit further development in the coming days as it moves West Northwestward. I'll be watching this system in the days ahead.
Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 8 PM EDT August 3 2012.
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Florida Disturbance 91L
Closer to home we have a disturbance off the Southeast Coast of Florida. Currently designated Invest 91L. Computer models suggest this disturbance will move North / Northeast in the coming days and interact with land late Saturday or Sunday somewhere along South Florida possibly crossing and re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico. 'Much remains uncertain' if this disturbance has enough time to become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm due to it's current location adjacent to the Florida Peninsula. One thing is certain, it will be a rainmaker.
Here's the Spaghetti Model plot for Tropical Depression SIX as of 2 PM EDT August 3 2012.
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Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.
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