Tropical Storm #Isaac, Hurricane #Kirk, Tropical Depression Twelve [#TD12] - August 30 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac currently [11:00 am EDT] has winds of 40 mph and is expected to become a Depression sometime today. If not he will likely be downgraded sometime tomorrow August 31. Isaac continues to dump heavy rain over Mississippi at this time. Radar estimates are showing upwards of 15 inches in some areas. The current forecast track remains much unchanged and Isaac is expected to continue Northward being steered by the western edge of a subtropical ridge that is in the southeastern U.S. for the next day or so. After, Isaac is expected to turn northeast and then east and will then be post tropical or a remnant low.

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Hurricane Kirk currently [11:00 am EDT] has winds of 75 mph is likely to remain out to sea and poss no risk at this time to the U.S. mainland. Forecast over the next few days show Kirk strengthening but still remaining a category 1 hurricane. I'll keep an eye on him just in case.

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Tropical Depression Twelve currently [11:00 am EDT] has winds of 35 mph and will likely become a Hurricane in the next 48 hours. Much Uncertainty remains in the track of this system due to influence of Hurricane Kirk and the subtropical ridge to it's west. This storm will need to be watched closely in the coming days for possible impact to the U.S. east coast.

You can find all the information on these Storms including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..

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#Isaac still expected to become #Hurricane make #Landfall today - August 28 2012

Tropical storm Isaac is still expected to become a minimal hurricane before making landfall along the Gulf coast in the Louisiana Mississippi Alabama area.

Right now Isaac is still a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph and continues moving to the Northwest at 12 mph. At 4:00 am CDT Isaac was about 125 miles south-southeast of the Mississippi River and about 205 miles south-southeast of Biloxi Mississippi. Isaac is expected to strengthen in the hours before landfall and will as mentioned be a minimal hurricane with anticipated winds of maximum 85 mph, there will be higher gusts. There will likely be a few Tornadoes as well.

The Eyewall of Isaac this morning..

Isaac is large and his winds will be felt before the center makes landfall.tropical storm force winds extend outward of 205 miles for Isaac's center. Heavy rains and high storm surge will also become problematic causing flooding with storm surge of:

6-12 FEET in Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi
4-8 FEET in Alabama
3-6 FEET in South Central Louisiana
3-6 FEET in Florida Panhandle
1-3 FEET in Florida west coast including Apalachee Bay

Rainfall Potential for the area:

You can find all the information on Isaac including Graphics.. and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..

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Tropical Storm Isaac soon to be a Hurricane - 10:30 AM EDT 8/25/12

Isaac now has winds of 65 MPH with higher gusts and is now moving West-Northwest at 20 MPH. Currently located at 23.5 North 80.0 West or about 135 Miles East-Southeast of Key West Florida and 155 Miles East of Havana Cuba. Central pressure now 995 MB. Isaac is expected to be or Near Hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Keys sometime today. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward 205 miles from Isaac's Center.

Isaac will impact the Florida Keys in the near term and is expected to strengthen as he continues tracking northwest into the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The current track of Isaac has shifted to the West at this time from previously and will shift [flip flop] until landfall which is still uncertain somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Once well into the Gulf of Mexico, computer models will get a better handle on Isaac and withing the next day or so we should will have a much better idea of where he is headed.

Radar from Key West Florida 10:16 AM EDT

* A Hurricane 'Warning' is in effect for the Florida Keys, Dry Tortunas, the West coast of FL from Bonita Beach Southward to Ocean Reef, Florida Bay and the Andros Islands in the Bahamas. * A Hurricane 'Watch' is in effect for the FL East coast from Golden Beach Southward to Ocean Reef, the Mouth of the Mississippi River 'NOT INCLUDING METRO NEW ORLEANS' to Indian Pass Florida.

You can find all the information on Isaac including Graphics on the Tropical Weather Page here .. and more ..

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You can find myself along with many others posting important information which is being constantly updated here - For rapid updates on Tropical Storm Isaac From 20 forecasters Covering 9 states along with professional and tropical meteorologist http://www.facebook.com/fftropicalzone , So hit the link and while you're there give the page a like.

Tropical Storm #Isaac - Georgia-Alabama-Florida Panhandle

First and foremost ... No one knows where this storm is going or what the strength will be at this time. Computer Models continue to flip flop with every run. What we are seeing are best guess tracks and wind speeds.

Now with that said .. at this time there is better than a 50% chance this storm which is likely to become a Hurricane and will impact the Florida Panhandle. Where exactly is to be determined.

Current information has Isaac as a Category 1 Hurricane at landfall. It is possible Isaac could be a category 2 hurricane at landfall but this is uncertain. Regardless of this, Isaac is a large storm as far as overall size. His winds will be felt miles from the center. At this time Tropical storm force winds [ minimum 39 miles per hour ] extend out from the center over 200 miles. In other words .. If Isaac were to make landfall in Pensacola Florida his tropical storm winds will be felt in central Alabama and Georgia. These kind of winds can cause damage as well as bringing down trees across power lines. Heavy rain is also expected which will cause flooding as well. There is also a threat for Tornadoes with any land falling Hurricane.

I am not one to hype up a storm, It is best though that folks in Florida, Georgia and Alabama prepare for what may be coming.

You can find all the information on the Tropical Weather Page here ..

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I will likely not have much time to post here in the days to come. However .. you can find myself along with many others posting important information which is being constantly updated here - For rapid updates on Tropical Storm Isaac From 20 forecasters Covering 9 states along with professional and tropical meteorologist http://www.facebook.com/fftropicalzone , So hit the link and while you're there give the page a like.

We have been covering this storm since the beginning well before others and we will be covering Isaac until the end.

Tropical Storm #Isaac 7:00 AM EDT 8/23/12

Last night I mentioned on my personal twitter account that it looked like Tropical Storm Isaac was jogging west-southwest on Satellite imagery.

Interesting, Satellite shows #Isaac jog to west southwest 11:15 PM EDT last night. ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl…
— Ed Quinn (@CataulaGaWX) August 23, 2012

Seems I was right after looking over some data this morning. Also while reviewing data this morning, he appears to continue jogging in this direction. So what is causing this ? A couple of things. We have a Bermuda High in the Atlantic rotating clockwise pushing from the Northeast to the southwest which is to the Northeast of Isaac, and a tropical upper tropospheric trough [Tutt] rotating counter clockwise that was to the west of Isaac. In this case the Bermuda high is stronger and helping to steer Isaac West-Southwest. You can see this on the Image below, a surface chart showing these features which I've highlighted for you.

What this means if it continues is, Isaac will likely for the short term delay interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba to his west and have time to grow and become stronger while continuing too transverse the warm waters of the Caribbean. Should this occur Isaac stands a greater chance of surviving and emerging a bit stronger than he would, once he does cross those Islands.

As for Isaac .. he is currently farther south situated at 15.3North 64.0West and is weaker with winds of 40mph this morning. He is moving to the West at 12mph and has a central pressure of 1004mb.

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Computer models are all over the place at last look as they try to get a handle on him. So ... at this time the future track of Isaac remains uncertain for this reason and some influence from what was mentioned above. Florida, the Eastern Gulf coast and the Southeast Atlantic coastal states should continue to monitor Isaac. I think by Friday I should have a better idea where Isaac is going as far as exact location.

Several National Weather Service offices across the southeast will be releasing radiosondes [weather balloons] into the atmosphere every six hours beginning Friday to get a better handle on the trough over the southeast and the Bermuda high in the Atlantic. Until they and I have a better handle on things, I'm sticking with my previous thoughts of this storm going up the spine of Florida or there about and heading to the East Northeast. I am not one to chase computer models when they shift the track every run.

Tropical Storm #Isaac - #Invest96L - August 22 2012

Isaac still a Tropical Storm at this hour 'expected to become a Hurricane within the next 48 hours'. Currently located at 15.5North 57.3West about 280 Miles East of Guadeloupe, with winds of 45mph and is heading West at 18mph. The central pressure is 1003mb or 29.62inches. Isaac is showing better organization on satellite imagery and beginning to get the classic look of tropical systems. Isaac has an eye as reported by Hurricane Hunters currently investigating with a diameter of 10 nautical miles [ 12 statute miles ].

Outer rainbands are currently impacting the Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Isaac will impact the Leeward Islands Today. Some strengthening may occur before landfall. Tropical Storm winds which extend outward 45 miles form the center of Isaac will be felt before the center makes landfall. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 8 inches are expected in some areas before Isaac crosses and makes his way into the Western Caribbean Thursday morning.

* A 'Hurricane Watch' is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona Westward to the Haiti Dominican Republic Southern Border.

* A Tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe and St. Martin and surrounding Islands as well as St. Kits, Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* A tropical Storm 'Watch' is in effect for the North Coast of the Dominican Republic from Haiti Dominican Republic Northern Border Eastward to North of Isla Saona.

* Interest in and around these areas including Hispaniola and Cuba should be monitoring the progress of Isaac.
* I urge interest in Florida, the Eastern Gulf coastal areas and the East coast to remain vigilante as the forecast track of Isaac remains uncertain at this time.

Perspectivas De Las Condiciones Del Tiempo En El Tropico -
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/SJUTWOSP+shtml/220625.shtml

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I continue to watch [Invest 96L] in the East Atlantic about 650 Miles West-Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave has winds last reported of 30mph and is located at 11.5North 34.5West moving to the West-Northwest. As of 2:00 AM EDT 96L has a 90 percent chance of becoming our next depression or storm 'later today'. Once named it will be Joyce. The forecast track at this time remains uncertain. Next update from NHC on this system 8:00 AM EDT

I'll be keeping a close watch on both of these systems in the days to come.