91L - Likely Tonight/Tomorrow Tropical Depression 5 possibly TS Emily

The National Hurricane Center as of 8pm EDT July 30 2011 is giving this wave a 90% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48hrs.

I believe from what I see, a Tropical Depression will form sometime in the early morning hours EDT. The tropical wave at this time is elongated along a west northwest to east southeast axis and still has no well-defined center. It appears there may be two areas within fighting to see which will remain. Until there is a defined center, it is hard to determine where this tropical systems track will take it. Computer models are coming more inline, but still differ enough that no one knows where it will go at this time.

This system is becoming better organized as seen from this infrared image.

Computer model forecast track -

Earlier posts on this system: here & here

Tropical Storm DON, 91L and another tropical wave

First a little about Don, which as I write [ 8:14 PM EDT 7/29/2011 ] is nearing landfall north of Brownsville Texas with winds of 50 mph. I was wrong. I said Don would make landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston, Texas. That was 2 days ago, before Don took a jog on a more southerly path. Hey what do you want form an amateur. Even the pros are wrong sometimes, and no one really knows where a tropical system will go until it gets there. I'm not making excuses.

With Tropical Storm Don making landfall, I will now turn my attention to a tropical wave mentioned earlier today. This wave now called 91L is located at this time about 1100 miles East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles. As of the 8pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, this wave now has a 'well defined low pressure system' associated with it. This wave is moving 15 to 20mph and is heading westward or west- northwestward. This tropical wave is now being given a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs.

There is also another tropical wave located in the western Caribbean showing disorganized showers and thunderstorm activity, moving westward at 10 to 15moh. This wave is not forecast to become a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs and has a 0% chance of doing so.

Turning our attention back to invest 91L. Should 91L strengthen to a tropical storm, it will be known as Emily. If this happens and a name is given, Emily will be the 5th named storm of the 2011 hurricane season and also put us at having five named storms before August 1st. Near as I can find this only happened in the 2005 season. Please correct me if I'm wrong here!

Other than being upgraded as far as becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs not much has changed with this feature. Early computer models expect 91L to strengthen as it moves west northwestward in the coming week. It is early and we really have no idea what 91L will do. Intensity models vary as they will. Some, the GFD and the GHM2 strengthen 91L as much as a category 3 hurricane. Others at this time keep 91L at a category 1 and still others keep it a strong tropical storm.

Models predict this tropical system to continue on it's westward path taking it near Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands. Most of the models show this system impacting Hispaniola at this time. As mentioned computer models vary and some of them show this system re-curving back out into the Atlantic after its brief interlude with the Caribbean becoming what many call a 'fish storm' [ a fish storm only affects the fish, no land mass ]. It is early and things can and will change. This is a system to watch in the coming week.

Computer model graphic -

Tropical Storm DON heading for Texas - Another Tropical Wave to watch

Tropical Storm DON still moving through the Gulf showing little change. Winds 50mph, Pressure 1000mb, moving WNW at 14mph. Another Tropical Wave 1200 miles East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles is showing signs of development. The national Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs. This wave is moving West-Northwestward at 15 to 20mph.

Via National Hurricane Center

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Drought Update July 28 2011

While many areas of Georgia have seen scattered to isolated summer type showers and storms this past week, little has changed in the drought situation from the previous week.

Here at the homestead in Cataula, I have picked up 1.27 inches of liquid sunshine in the past week. It helped green everything up, but now things are again getting dry and crunchy. The last day I saw Rain here was July 26, a whopping 1.26 inches. For the month so far, I have been blessed enough to have had 3.79 inches of rain as you can see here on the Cataula Rain Gauge page. Columbus has recorded 3.98 inches for the month so far. We are both running short of the July monthly average which is 5.04 inches. With the month of July coming to a close, I think we will fall short of our monthly average. Columbus needs 1.06 inches and Cataula will need 1.25 inches to break even for the July.

As mentioned, not much has changed for last week to this week in Georgia. The exceptions being Severe drought has expanded a little more north, the area of Moderate drought has decreased a little but still is encompassed by Abnormally Dry conditions and, in the northwestern area of the state Abnormally Dry conditions have once again moved in. The local area is still in a Severe to Extreme Drought.

Here's a graphic showing last week on the left and this week on the right.

We are still waiting on a tropical system to bring the southeast much needed rain. Areas of Texas should see some rain from Tropical Storm Don, but this will not be a drought buster for them by any means.

Sources for rainfall data:

Monthly Averages for Columbus, GA (31904) : http://www.weather.com/weather/wxclimatology/monthly/31904

Rainfall Tables : http://www.wtvm.com/category/54453/rainfall

Drought graphic provided by http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Tropical Storm Don update 1 July 27 2011

Invest AL90 Previous post here

Tropical Storm Don formed today. At this time 02:10 UTC the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center at 21:00 UTC is showing Don at 22.2N 87.0W with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph a Minimum central pressure of 1001mb and is moving WNW at 12mph.

Here are the latest computer model outputs forecast tracks

By all indications from models Don will be making landfall in Texas. I have been watching what is now Don since he was a lonely tropical wave blowing through the Atlantic last week. On July 21 I even mentioned

Looking at some of the long range models, there is a hint of something in the first week of August forming in the Atlantic that may move or come in our direction. It is still to far out to determine the exact path any system would take, or even if it will form at all.

I believe Don will make landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston, Texas. I said as much here on twitter today And here on a photo of model tracks posted on July 26 by local Meteorologist Derek Kinkade. No word yet if anyone agrees. How about you; where do you think Tropical Storm Don is headed ?

I'll be watching Don as many will, so check back for updates. Especially the closer Don gets to making landfall, or should he strengthen.

Tropical Disturbence Invest AL90 / Forecast Tracks July 26 2011

The disturbance/wave currently designated as Invest AL90 continues to look better and more organized this evening, but still lacks a closed defined low level circulation. I think a closed circulation will form within the next 48 hours as the system slowly enters warmer more favorable waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Even if it were to develop a well defined circulation, it is unlikely to be upgraded to tropical depression Don before a recon aircraft verifies this during a scheduled mission tomorrow.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this tropical wave a 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

Here are the computer model forecast tracks for this system as it moves west northwest. Texas should be watching this system closely at this time. Should the track into Texas verify, it will be welcomed as they are experiencing a severe drought over much of the state.

Texas drought -

Drought Update July 21 2011 - Recent Rains Ease Georgia Drought

Recent Rains during the past week have eased the drought severity in Georgia and across the river in Alabama. Other areas of the southeast have noted little change.

Here's a graphic showing the difference a week can make. Last week is on the left and current on the right.

As you can see in the above, the area of darkest red which denotes 'Exceptional Drought' has been removed from much of Georgia. Only central and southeast-central areas remain in 'exceptional drought, while much of the state is still in 'extreme drought' denoted by the lighter shade of red.

Here is the breakdown of Drought affected areas throughout Georgia. Notice the 'D4' drought category which has shrank from 35.52% of the state down to 8.74%.

And here is what the rest of the Southeast is looking like this week on the right, compared to last week on the left.

As mentioned, recent rains are what brought drought relief to areas of Georgia and Alabama. Many areas in central Georgia saw anywhere from a quarter inch to two inches of rain, while some areas in southern Georgia saw upwards of as much as five inches. Here is a graphic showing rain amounts for the past week.

Here is a graphic showing the departure from normal rainfall in Georgia and Alabama in what is known as the 'water year' which begins on October 1. Many areas are showing a deficit of eight to upwards of twenty inches in the deep south.

Here is a graphic showing how much rain we still need to bring conditions back to normal. Last Week some areas in Georgia needed over fifteen inches of rain. Those areas now need twelve to fifteen inches. Other areas in central Georgia last week needed six to twelve inches. This area has grown and now needs nine to twelve inches to bring drought conditions back to normal.

Drought stricken areas are not out of the woods yet by a long shot. A couple dry weeks and exceptional along with extreme drought conditions will return to much of the area. We are still waiting on a tropical system to form and move in our direction. Looking at some of the long range models, there is a hint of something in the first week of August forming in the Atlantic that may move or come in our direction. It is still to far out to determine the exact path any system would take, or even if it will form at all. It's still early in Hurricane season which means we still have plenty of time.

Earlier this week I posted on Facebook a map by 'Joe Bastardi' of AccuWeather fame which shows what he thinks will be the highest area of impact for tropical systems this year. If this hold true, we may have better than average chances of a couple of these systems bringing rains to the southeast. Here is the graphic:

Until next weeks drought update, be safe and stay hydrated in this heat.

Tropical Storm Bret Forms in the Atlantic

I've been watching this develop along with many others for the past couple of days. As most tropical disturbances do, Bret began as ... well, a disturbance or area of interest, then became a tropical depression, and now a tropical storm. Should TS Bret strengthen it would then become a hurricane. This is the normal life cycle of the development of a hurricane. TS Bret is not expected to become a hurricane.

Tropical systems do not always follow what is normal or expected. Some go from and area of interest straight to a tropical storm. Some even strengthen so rapidly they go from tropical depression to hurricane status by the time data is collected and updates released.

Hurricane season started on June 1^st and ends on November 30^th. So far for the Atlantic basin in 2011 it has been relatively quiet with only 2 named storms, Arlene and now Bret. We are no moving into what some of us call the real beginning of hurricane season, the latter part of July into the beginning of August.

Sea Surface Temperature are very warm this year, ranked in June as the 11th warmest such period on record.

This is very conducive for tropical system and hurricane formation as in any year, but more so as the oceans waters become warmer. We have a long way to go this hurricane season. It may be a slow start, but I think it will go out with a bang, or two or three, possibly four major storms impacting the U.S..

Here is the infrared satellite view of Bret. I took the liberty of circling tropical storm Bret for you.

Here are the forecast locations and max wind speeds for tropical storm Bret.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 27.5N  78.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 27.7N  77.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 28.5N  77.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 29.7N  76.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 30.7N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 32.5N  71.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 34.5N  65.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 36.5N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/180238.shtml?

Here is the forecast track map for tropical storm Bret. Not much has changed from my earlier post when Bret was still a tropical depression.

As I also mentioned in my earlier post, Bret is forecast to go out into the Atlantic and have no impact on the U.S. mainland. While this is the forecast, things can change so I'll be keeping an eye on tropical Storm Bret. We could use some more rain to help with our current drought situation but, I dont think it will come by way of tropical storm Bret.

Tropical Depression Two Forms off Florida East Coast

I mentioned this yesterday on Facebook when it was a disturbance and designated Invest 98. In a post before the one linked above I said...

"Watching a disturbed area off the southeast coast for development. Models differ, some say it will go out into the Atlantic and dissolve. Others think it will do a loop and head back north, while another thinks it will cross Florida and emerge in the Gulf of Mexico. Something to watch in the coming week."

This tropical system is now designated as a 'Tropical Depression' and is forecast to become a 'Tropical Storm' later tonight if it hasn't already, as some data suggest. Should it become a tropical storm, it will be named Bret.

As mentioned yesterday, computer models were all over the place on where this system would go. It now appears that it will head back North, then Northeastward over the next couple of days. It will have little to no impact on the U.S. mainland and is not expected to become a Hurricane.

From the National Hurricane Center

500 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 78.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

Edit: July 18 12:03 Am EDT -- changed Bert to Bret paragraph 2 line 2 :)

Drought Update Georgia and Southeast July 15 2011 / Tropical Moisture

Another week and little has changed since my last update on July 7^th. However, I expect a better report next week as most of us in the local area have had some decent rains. Here at the house, I've had 1.81 inches of rain since this past Sunday. Most of this was on Sunday, a quenching 1.14 inches, then Tuesday 0.56 inches and Thursday evening 0.11 inches as of 9pm.

Here is a look at last weeks southeast map compared to this weeks map. The biggest changes for the better were in south and southeast Georgia, south Florida and north Alabama.

Heres a look at Georgia where 'Exceptional Drought' still covers 35.52% of the state, including some of the local area, down from last weeks 40.45%.

For the period ending July 9, our local are needs anywhere from 9 inches of rain to over 15 inches of rain to bring conditions back to normal.

The map above does not reflect the rain we've had this past week, or the rains we are expecting through the weekend and in to next week. If the map below holds true, hopefully the local area can pick up another, dare I say 2 to 3 inches of rain thru next Tuesday.

There is a tropical disturbance way down south around central America that will have no direct affect on our local weather. It has a 10% chance of developing into something larger and is moving west. It may re-emerge in the Pacific and develop into something, but as of yet this is undetermined.

Some computer models were developing a closed low in the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. They have since backed off, but the ingredients remain in place so I'll monitor this over the weekend. Here is what the National Hurricane Center had to say about this area around the Gulf of Mexico in their Thursday 8:05 PM update:

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 89W-95W. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER S GEORGIA AND S ALABAMA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA N OF 29N BETWEEN 80W-88W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 79W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTH MEXICO FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 89W-105W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N86W MOVING W. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Georgia Drought Update July 7 2011 / Watching the Tropics

Little has changed from last week to this week. The exception being a couple counties in Southeast Georgia where they had decent amounts of rain. Those counties are now in Extreme Drought, where last week they were in Exceptional Drought. Without more rain in these areas, they will move back into exceptional drought.

Here in the local area drought conditions persist even with summer type scattered showers and storms. Here at the homestead over the past week I've had about 1½ inches of rain. At this time the illusion of green grass is misleading. Without continued rain the grass will once again dry out and turn brown. Soil moisture continues to be depleted.

Here are the current drought conditions in Georgia. Muscogee county is in Exceptional drought, while Harris county is in extreme drought. Localized drought conditions are teetering between these two extremes.

David Emory Stooksbury from the Georgia State Climatology Office had this to say about current drought conditions, and the outlook for summer 2011.

One of the best indicators of climate over a period of several weeks is persistence. Persistence means that the current climate pattern will continue for a period of time. Since Georgia has been warmer and drier than normal since March, the persistence outlook is for Georgia to remain warmer and drier than normal for the next several weeks.

An additional indicator is the current drought. Even with normal temperatures and rain during the summer, the soils across Georgia continue to dry, and stream flows drop. Even if Georgia receives normal rain this summer, the drought is expected to continue.

Drought and warmer-than-normal temperatures go together and typically reinforce each other. Dry soils mean that more energy from the sun heats the soil and the air above it. Warmer temperatures mean that the soils loose more water to evaporation and plant water use.

With drought conditions leading to higher temperatures, the current drought indicates an outlook of warmer-than-normal temperatures.

Complete article here: http://climate.engr.uga.edu/Summer_2011_Outlook.pdf

While there is no higher drought condition than 'exceptional drought', southwest Georgia and the Florida panhandle areas are worse than last week. To bring conditions back to normal, these areas now need 'over 15 inches' of rain, while last week they needed 12 to 15 inches. Our local area remains unchanged from last week still needing 9 to 12 inches of rain.

We are waiting on some type of tropical system to bring us much needed rain. At this time there is such a system to our south in Florida. This wave is expected to move North / Northwest possibly interacting with the Gulf of Mexico, pulling more tropical moisture into the southern states. Will any of this moisture make it here ? That's the million dollar question.

There is also another area of disturbed weather farther south which I'll be keeping an eye on for development.

Here is the current radar from Florida showing the rain associated with the first wave in the graphic above denoted by the number 1.

Hot and Dry : Georgia June 2011 Climate Summary

If you happen to live in Georgia, you know it was Hot and Dry in June. If you've followed along here at Cataula GA WX you've read about some of the Record Breaking Heat, and Drought Conditions in Georgia. Here is the summary for June 2011......

Georgia Climate Summary for June 2011

Prepared by Pam Knox, Assistant State Climatologist
Georgia State Climatology Office

Very hot daytime temperatures and lack of rainfall led to strengthened drought across Georgia in June. Average temperatures were at or near record levels for the month across the state.

Temperatures across the state were above normal everywhere in Georgia for a fifth straight month. In Atlanta, the monthly average temperature was 81.2 degrees F (4.4 degrees above normal), in Athens 81.0 degrees (4.7 degrees above normal), Columbus 84.4 (5.2 degrees above normal), Macon 82.9 (4.9 above normal), Savannah 83.0 (4.2 above normal), Brunswick 82.4 (3.0 above normal), Alma 83.5 (4.2 above normal), Valdosta 83.3 (4.9 above normal) and Augusta 82.1 (4.6 above normal).

This was the warmest June ever in Columbus in 64 years of record. It was the second warmest in Macon in 119 years of record, only surpassed by 84.3 degrees F in June 1952. It was the third warmest June in 133 years of Atlanta records, surpassed by 82.3 degrees F in 1952 and 81.4 degrees F set last year in June 2010. Temperature records in Athens, Alma, Savannah, Valdosta and Augusta were also in the top ten Junes in their histories.

Numerous daily record high temperatures were broken this month. Columbus broke four daily records and tied three more, including 101 degrees F on June 1 and 3, breaking old records of 98 F and 99 F, set respectively in 1998 and 1985. Macon set their a daily record maximum temperature of 103 F on the third, breaking the old record of 102 F set in 1985. Alma set new daily temperature records on six different days, including a reading of 103 F on the 15th which broke the old record of 100 F set in 1981.

The NWS office in Savannah noted that their new daily maximum temperature record of 102 F on the 13th (breaking the old record of 100 F set in 1880) was the warmest it has been in Savannah since July 20, 2000.

Precipitation in June was scattered due to pup-up thunderstorms on many days during the month. The wettest areas were in northern Georgia and in the southeastern part of the state, where showers helped firefighters control the large fires near the Okefenokee Swamp that have been burning since late April.

source: www.weather.gov

The highest monthly total precipitation from National Weather Service reporting stations was 7.09 inches in Savannah (1.60 inches above normal) and the lowest was in Augusta at 1.98 inches (2.07 below normal). Valdosta received 3.50 inches (1.86 below normal), Athens 2.44 inches (1.50 inches above normal), Alma 3.11 (2.38 below normal), Columbus 2.64 (0.87 below normal), Macon 2.76 (0.78 below normal), Brunswick 3.86 (1.19 below normal) and Atlanta 2.20 (1.43 inches below normal).

source: www.weather.gov

The highest single-day rainfall from CoCoRaHS stations was 5.63 inches in Chatham County on Tybee Island on June 30. Another nearby observer on Wilmington Island reported 4.26 inches on the same day. The same Tybee Island observer had the highest monthly rainfall amount of 10.08 inches, followed by 8.65 inches in Rabun Gap (Rabun County) and 8.44 inches on Wilmington Island.

Severe weather was reported somewhere in the state on 25 days in June. There were no tornadoes reported in the month, but scattered hail and wind damage and power outages were observed at locations around the state. Lightning struck a building during AthFest in Athens on the 24th during an outdoor concert. Fortunately, no one was injured, although brick on the facade rained down into the street. The widest outbreaks of wind and hail were reported on June 15 and 26.

Drought covered over 85 percent of the state by the end of June, up from 81 percent at the start of the month. The drought increased in strength significantly in spite of scattered showers, so that when June ended the percent of the state in exceptional drought went from zero to over 40 percent, all in the southern half of the state. Rural cities like Doerun and Dawson in southwestern Georgia were running out of drinking water due to the low groundwater levels.

Soil moisture conditions across Georgia declined slightly during the month, as the lack of rainfall and high daytime temperatures accelerated evapotranspiration and stressed plants in spite of scattered showers. Farmers switched from peanuts to cotton or soybeans due to the dry soils and late planting conditions. Herds were being culled due to lack of forage and expensive feed.