Tropical Storm Don update 1 July 27 2011

Invest AL90 Previous post here

Tropical Storm Don formed today. At this time 02:10 UTC the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center at 21:00 UTC is showing Don at 22.2N 87.0W with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph a Minimum central pressure of 1001mb and is moving WNW at 12mph.

Here are the latest computer model outputs forecast tracks

By all indications from models Don will be making landfall in Texas. I have been watching what is now Don since he was a lonely tropical wave blowing through the Atlantic last week. On July 21 I even mentioned

Looking at some of the long range models, there is a hint of something in the first week of August forming in the Atlantic that may move or come in our direction. It is still to far out to determine the exact path any system would take, or even if it will form at all.

I believe Don will make landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston, Texas. I said as much here on twitter today And here on a photo of model tracks posted on July 26 by local Meteorologist Derek Kinkade. No word yet if anyone agrees. How about you; where do you think Tropical Storm Don is headed ?

I'll be watching Don as many will, so check back for updates. Especially the closer Don gets to making landfall, or should he strengthen.

Tropical Disturbence Invest AL90 / Forecast Tracks July 26 2011

The disturbance/wave currently designated as Invest AL90 continues to look better and more organized this evening, but still lacks a closed defined low level circulation. I think a closed circulation will form within the next 48 hours as the system slowly enters warmer more favorable waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Even if it were to develop a well defined circulation, it is unlikely to be upgraded to tropical depression Don before a recon aircraft verifies this during a scheduled mission tomorrow.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this tropical wave a 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

Here are the computer model forecast tracks for this system as it moves west northwest. Texas should be watching this system closely at this time. Should the track into Texas verify, it will be welcomed as they are experiencing a severe drought over much of the state.

Texas drought -