A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.
As expected Rafael became a Hurricane yesterday at 6:45 PM AST with winds near 75 mph as reported by hurricane hunter aircraft. Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2012 hurricane season and the 9th hurricane. The 2012 hurricane season ends on November 30th so there's plenty of time for a few more storms.
Currently Rafael is a category 1 hurricane located about 195 miles south of Bermuda at 29.5North 64.4West with winds of 85 mph, heading rapidly at 23 mph toward the North-northeast with a central pressure of 969 mb. Hurricane force winds extend outward 35 miles and tropical storm force winds out 205 miles from the center. The center of Rafael will pass to the east of Bermuda late this evening with a turn toward the northeast along with an increase in forward speed later today or tomorrow. Rafael should begin to weaken due to strong wind shear upward of 40 kt and continue weakening as he moves into colder water becoming extratropical by Thursday.
Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches and tropical storm winds are expected across Bermuda this afternoon and evening. Life threatening surf and rip currents are anticipated along areas of Bermuda and may also impact areas along the U.S. east coast in the next couple of days.
Tropical Storm Nadine has formed in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and posses No threat to the U.S. or any land mass at this time. Forecast for Nadine take her in a similar path as what was Hurricane Michael which is now post tropical as is Leslie.
Currently [11:00 PM EDT 9/11/12] Nadine has winds of 40 mph and is moving West-Northwest at 15 mph with a central pressure of 1004 MB, and is located at 17.8 north 45.2 west or about 1735 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Nadine could become a hurricane in the next 2 days.
You can find all the information on this Storm including Graphics and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..
Date: Jul. 30, 2012 6:00 Z (Monday)
Coordinates: 9.7N 34.3W
Pressure (MSLP): 1010 mb (29.83 inHg | 1010 hPa)
Wind speed (1 min. avg.): 20 knots (23 mph | 10 m/s | 37 km/h)
Location: 813 statue miles (1308 km) to the WSW (244°) from Praia, Cape Verde.
Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1012 mb. (29.89 inHg | 1012 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 200 nautical miles. (230 miles | 370 kilometers)
Radius of Max Winds: 80 nautical miles (92 miles | 148 kilometers)
System Depth: Shallow
Areas of central Georgia to southwest Georgia are still enduring the highest level of drought 'Exceptional Drought', which now covers 21.73 percent of the state as of July 10 2012. On June 26 2012 this area was 19.98 percent. Not far behind in this general area is a large area of 'Extreme Drought' which now covers 38.44 percent of the state as of July 10 2012. On June 26 2012 this area was 31.72 percent. The state of Georgia as a whole is experiencing drought except for the southeastern most part. 12.29 percent of Georgia is drought free as of July 10 2012, slightly worse than on June 26 2012 which showed 13.91 percent of Georgia drought free.
While some areas in Georgia have seen rain, others have not. Compounding the lack of rainfall during the past couple of weeks was the heatwave that swept through much of the south.
Here are the current drought conditions in Georgia. June 26 on the left and July 10 on the right.
Here's a look at drought conditions throughout the southeast. June 26 on the left and July 10 on the right.
Here's a panel showing Departure from Normal Precipitation Top Left, Normal Precipitation Top Right, and Observed Precipitation Bottom.
Here is the current Drought severity Index for the entire U.S. on the left and the amount of Precipitation needed to bring drought conditions to near normal on the right. Much of the country is experiencing drought conditions at this time, but this is not something we have not seen before in past years.
Here is the latest Drought Outlook for the U.S., It's not looking good during the next few months.
For us in the south and southeast we have the potential for some drought relief much like Florida saw recently. We can hope for a tropical system to move through the area in the coming months.
For all information Current to 2007 on Drought in Georgia, See The Drought Files.
The good news; Some areas of Georgia and the southeast saw drought relief. The bad news; Some areas didn't !
Areas that saw drought relief are pretty much the same areas that saw drought relief earlier this month from Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical Storm Debby was responsible for bringing drought relief to these areas this time. Rain from Debby and Beryl did help the drought situation in areas of Southeast Georgia, North Florida, and other areas. It did little for North and Central Georgia overall.
Here's a graphic showing drought conditions in Georgia. On the left: Drought conditions on June 5 before Tropical Storm Debby. On the right: Current drought conditions as of June 26 2012 after Debby.
Here's a graphic showing the Drought conditions in the Southeast for the same time period. Notice Florida, where drought for the most part has been wiped out. On the left: Drought conditions on June 5 before TS Debby. On the right: Current drought conditions as of June 26 2012 after TS Debby.
Here's a panel showing 30 DAY Observed Precipitation TOP, Normal precipitation BOTTOM LEFT and Departure from Normal BOTTOM RIGHT for Georgia, Alabama, North Florida and South Carolina. The big winner in the last 30 days is Florida.
Here's the current U.S. drought severity index on the LEFT and how much precipitation would be required on the RIGHT to end drought conditions across the U.S.. [NOTE: The end of a drought is defined by a PHDI value of -0.5.]
Here's the current drought severity in the U.S.. ON the LEFT June 5 and on the RIGHT current as of June 26 2012.
Here's the 3 month Temperature and Precipitation outlook for the U.S.. It's not looking good as Temps will be above normal for much of the county drying things out even more and chances of rain for the most part are equal save some intervention by tropical systems in the south.
Here's the Drought Outlook for June 21 through September 30 2012. Again, not looking good !
Here's a panel from May 2012 showing Precipitation REQUIRED to end drought conditions in 3 months TOP LEFT. The PROBABILITY of Receiving the Required precipitation TOP RIGHT. Precipitation required to improve drought conditions BOTTOM LEFT and the PROBABILITY of Receiving it BOTTOM RIGHT to improve drought conditions.
All in all, drought conditions are likely to continue for the next 3 months and likely beyond that for areas currently experiencing drought in the U.S..
Update 8:38 AM 2/6/2012 - near ZERO 0% chance of becoming a Subtropical Storm.
via National Hurricane Center
REGARDLESS OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.
+++++++
Original post Sunday, February 5, 2012 3:37 PM EST
Well look what popped up in February....
Designated Invest 90L at this time and situated between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba, Invest 90 is not expected to become a tropical storm, there exists a possibility for sub-tropical development. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring this area.
Latest placement has this system at 22.0N 86.0W with winds of 25 MPH and a central pressure of 1014 MB.
Looking at this time to be more of a rainmaker for southwest Florida than anything else. There may be some rough seas around the area also. Here's a look at the Radar out of Key West Florida...
While this may be an early start to the tropical season and somewhat unusual, there has been development this early in this area before; 1952 Groundhog Day tropical storm
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30 and produced a total of 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. This level of activity matched NOAA's predictions and continues the trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.
Surprisingly, none of the first eight tropical storms reached hurricane status, a record since reliable reports started in 1851. Hurricane Irene's effects in the Caribbean and the United States led to 43 deaths and accounted for the bulk of this season's damage at $7.3 billion. Irene was the first landfalling hurricane in New Jersey in 108 years. Hurricane Katia had far-reaching effects causing severe weather in Northern Ireland and Scotland and power blackouts as far east as Saint Petersburg in Russia. Tropical Storm Lee caused major flooding in Pennsylvania, New York and into the Canadian provinces of Quebec and Ontario. The strongest storm of the season was Ophelia, which reached category four strength in the Atlantic Ocean east of Bermuda.
An integral part of NOAA's ability to monitor and predict hurricane formation and movement is the data that is provided by the GOES satellite, with its visible imagery, infrared sensors, and sounding capabilities. This animations merges both the visible and infrared imagery taken by the GOES East (GOES-13) satellite every 30 minutes over the Northern Hemisphere from June 1 -- November 28, 2011.
_______
Active 2011 hurricane season breaks 'Hurricane Amnesia'
Irene the first hurricane to hit U.S. in three years; Northeast reminded it’s also vulnerable
November 28, 2011
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends Wednesday, having produced a total of 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. This level of activity matched NOAA’s predictions and continues the trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.
The 19 tropical storms represent the third-highest total (tied with 1887, 1995, and 2010) since records began in 1851 and is well above the average of 11. However, the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes is only slightly above the average of six and two, respectively. This year’s totals include a post-storm upgrade of Tropical Storm Nate to hurricane status, and the addition of a short-lived, unnamed tropical storm that formed in early September between Bermuda and Nova Scotia. This unnamed storm, along with several other weak, short-lived named storms, could have gone undetected without modern satellite technology.
Irene was the lone hurricane to hit the United States in 2011, and the first one to do so since Ike struck southeast Texas in 2008. Irene was also the most significant tropical cyclone to strike the Northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991.
“Irene broke the ‘hurricane amnesia’ that can develop when so much time lapses between landfalling storms,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “This season is a reminder that storms can hit any part of our coast and that all regions need to be prepared each and every season.”
As far as landfalling major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 with top winds of 111mph and greater) are concerned, the lull continues. 2011 marks a record six straight years without one hitting the United States. The last one to do so was Wilma in 2005. Nonetheless, wind is not the only threat with tropical systems as proven by Irene and Lee, which caused deadly and destructive flooding. On average, more than half of the fatalities related to tropical systems are due to flooding. continue reading http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111128_endofhurricaneseason_2011.html
Been fairly quite for the most part as far as any major tropical systems / storms. We've had a couple disturbances form in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean in the past month and a half move up into the southeast of the U.S., a low pressure system that moved through southeast Georgia and Tropical Storm Lee which spawned some severe weather and Tornadoes in the area.
The Atlantic should remain relatively quite but a system forming is not out of the question. This time of year towards the end of hurricane season, the main focus for tropical development is in the Caribbean where the waters are still quite warm. Computer models want to develop this system. Steering patterns seem to indicate a track northwest to north-northwest the next few days at a slow pace. The longer this stays out over open waters the better the chances for further development. I'll keep my eye on this invest and see if it develops into something in the coming days.
Here are a couple computer model graphics showing were it might go, should it develop.
A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Should this system develop, I'll have up dated and up to date information on the Tropical Weather Page.
Mentioned Last Week, the possibility of a tropical system forming in this area. While the currently surface low at this time has not developed into anything more, there is still the possibility of further development. The NHC is giving this system a 30% chance of further development; here's what the National Hurricane Center has to say at this time 8 PM EDT:
A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N79W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW ALONG 25N80W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N85W. THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N83W WHICH HAS BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 69W-78W...AND AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 21N-33N BETWEEN 69W-82W. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE ENHANCED BY STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS E OF A LINE FROM 26N83W TO 15N79W. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW LIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N84W BY LATE MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG WINDS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY..
Along with the low mentioned above is an upper level low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico as well. It is expected these two lows will merge to form one low pressure system having tropical or subtropical characteristic's, and continue to move north.
Here's the anticipated track's of this system -
You can check out the radar images here, and keep up with tropical weather here should this system, or any pose a threat in the future.
We can use the rain here in Georgia as we are still enduring a severe drought.
GFS computer model hinting at a tropical system forming next week. Should this pan out, it may very well bring more needed rain to the local area. Along with another wedge setup expected to occur over the coming weekend or early next week, this system should it develop, would likely be influenced by that as well as a trough of low pressure also expected to develop. If this takes place, this should cause the tropical system to move north west across the state of Georgia. Again, should this happen, we may be in for some good rain. We are still in a 'severe drought'.
Here's looking out in voodoo land to Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.
Ophelia is on the board. Check the Tropical Weather page for updated graphics, public advisories and discussion which refresh when new ones are issued.
Current information as of 11 PM EDT September 20 2011 :
LOCATION...12.2N 40.1W
ABOUT 1585 MI...2555 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Discussion Highlights 11 PM EDT September 20 2011 :
WHILE OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR SO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE SOMEWHAT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE SHORT TERM. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/8...DUE TO THE RECENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
Last week I mentioned we had minimal moisture associated with tropical storm Lee, here at the homestead 0.45 inches. I also mentioned I saw little in the way of any rain in the coming week. Unfortunately, I was correct as we missed yet another chance this past Friday as a cold front passed through the area. The boundary set up just to our south where some did see rain with the front, but we remained dry.
With that said, not much if anything changed in our current drought report this week. In fact, if you look at the image below you can see it is basically unchanged from last week. We are still in an 'extreme drought' for much of Georgia.
The tropics are quite at this time and I anticipate nothing forming which would bring any rain to the area in the near future. We may have missed our chances again this year as we are now past peak and conditions are fast approaching less favorable conditions for tropical development. There is a chance of some rain this coming week, but I wont hold my breath. While I am hoping for rain, I do like the cooler temps and cloud cover we have seen recently and again this weekend.
For a look at possible rain and the temps for the coming week, check out the Temps / Precip page.
I will be keeping an eye on any severe weather, watches and warnings, and will be posting them as they happen to the best of my ability on my Facebook and Twitter page. Follow along there for any breaking events.
At 8 AM EDT Tropical Storm Lee made landfall just inland over south-central Louisiana around the
Vermilion Bay area. Lee still has winds of 45mph and is slowly drifting to the northeast at 3 mph. This northeast motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with an increase in forward speed. As Lee continues on this track scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected to spread northeast across portions of West Central Georgia this afternoon and tonight. There is the possibility a few short lived tornadoes could spin up in some of the more intense thunderstorms embedded within the feeder bands that will make their way through the area. This has been the case in areas to our west and south today.
The biggest concern from what will eventually become tropical depression Lee and then a low pressure system will be the rain associated with it. I, as well as others have mentioned over the past days of the heavy rains that will be moving into the area. While this is a welcomed rain event due to drought conditions, to much of a good thing can be bad. While much of the rain will be absorbed, depending on hourly rainfall amounts there may be localized flooding. The potential is there for areas prone to flooding from even heavy summertime downpours to become flooded for extended periods of time throughout this event over the coming days. If you live in one of these areas you should be prepared at this time for this possibility.
Not to freak anyone out, but computer models are hinting of the possibility of yet another tropical system forming in the Gulf of Mexico by this coming weekend and lifting north. This is not definite to happen but is something to keep in mind next weekend. If this were to occur, this could bring more high rain amounts in areas that will already be saturated from Lee possibly causing more flooding.
The track of Lee is expected to take it north through central Alabama to our west in the local area. On this track, Lee will continue to pull moisture form the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, there is a cold front moving in form the north that will interact with the warm moist air form the south. This may increase the risk of severe storms for Monday and Monday night. Again, an isolated tornado can not be ruled out during this time.
Rain amounts are still projected to be 1-3 inches with higher amounts possible for the local area depending on where the feeder bands set up and continue to move over the same areas [ training - usually associated with thunderstorms ]. You can see the amounts forecast for our area on my Temps / Precip Page. You can also check out the potential for severe weather on the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Products Page and see what the tropical systems are doing and where they are heading on the Tropical Weather Page. Be sure to hit the other links in the sidebar for Radar, Satellite and other data.
Drought conditions have worsened for much of Georgia, in the way of coverage. Here at the homestead I have had no appreciable rain since early August. I did have a quick rain shower yesterday Aug. 31 in the form of 0.11 inches, which wasn't enough to do a thing for the drought. Before this my last rain was on Aug. 11 and amounted to 0.29 inches. I finished the month of August below the average of 3.79 inches for my area with 3.52 inches. Columbus Ga to my south finished with over 5 inches.
I missed reporting last week as all eyes were glued to Hurricane Irene. This graph below shows how bad things have gotten for Georgia since August 16 through August 30 2011. The area of extreme drought now covers most of the state.
I wont bore you with further details except to say, we need rain. We are watching an area in the Gulf of Mexico which is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend that may, may, bring some much needed rain to Georgia. It is to early still to tell if this will happen. Needless to say, some areas of the south and southeast are expected to receive a lot of rain from this system should it develop the way models are predicting.
While we watch all of this unfold, we are still keeping an eye on Hurricane Katia which is still in open waters of the Atlantic. Models are thinking she will not make landfall in the U.S., but as before, it's early and things can and will change.
Models differ widely on the development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. Some bring the system in to Texas, while others bring it in to Louisiana and still others take it across north Florida and up the eastern seaboard. The only consensus, something will form in the Gulf Of Mexico.
Here is a run from the 06z GFS this morning at 72 hours out for September 3 2011. notice where the system is located in the gulf and a tightly rapped Hurricane Katia in the Atlantic. -
Here is the 00z UKMET for the same time frame, notice the system in the gulf a little farther west and south -
The 00z GGEM at 84 Hours for September 3 2011 shows the system impacting Texas -
The 00z Euro running slower at 168 hours for September 7 2011 still has the system in the gulf -
The NOGAPS running even slower developing the system in the Gulf of Mexico, showing it down around the Bay of Campeche at 108 hours September 4 2011 and dropping it all together for the next couple of runs.
These models agree that something will form in the Gulf of Mexico. They also show very well what will become Hurricane Katia still out in the Atlantic as late as September 7 2011. Where and what Katia will do is still open to interpretation, but models suggest she will miss the U.S. at this time.
Post Tropical Irene: Irene continues to track North-Northeast at about 25MPH with Sustained winds of 35MPH, about 100 miles northwest of Houlton Maine. Current position 47.4N 68.8W with a central pressure of 981 millibars. The remaining threat from former hurricane Irene will be rain which may cause flooding.
Tropical Storm Jose: Update: 1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011...JOSE DISSIPATES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...REMNANTS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
Jose is currently tracking North at 23MPH with sustained winds of 40MPH and poses no threat to any landmass, and is expected to lose it's tropical characteristics sometime later today. Current position 37.2N 64.7W 340 miles North of Bermuda, 515 miles South of Nova Scotia, with a central pressure of 1008 millibars.
Tropical Depression 12 [formerly AL92]: As mentioned earlier, this is the tropical system we will be watching in the coming days, week, provided another more robust system doesn't form in the near.
Tropical depression 12 really kicked it into high gear last night and early today. Yesterday she was given only a 40% chance of developing in to a depression.
Currently located at 9.4N 26.3W or about 395 miles South-Southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands, moving West at about 15MPH, with sustained winds of 35MPH and a central pressure of 1009 millibars. TD12 should become a tropical storm sometime today, if not, when she does she will be named Tropical Storm Katia.
Here are a couple Model plots for Tropical Depression 12 / Tropical Storm Katia -
TD12 2amedt August 29 2011
TD12 636amedt August 29 2011
It is much to early to tell what or where soon to become Hurricane Katia will go. Should Katia continue on the NHC forecast track she may, and I stress this, Katia 'may' impact the east coast of the U.S. Katia may well recurve, being a fish storm and impact no land what so ever. As stated, to early to know at this time and still at a minimum 2 weeks away. I'll be watching.
Tropical Storm Irene is on the board. At this time computer models are still wide open as to where she will go. I will be monitoring Irene a bit more closely in the coming days. No since in getting all excited when I dont even know if she will survive her interaction with the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
Best guess at this time is she will not traverse the Gulf of Mexico. However there is the possibility she may hug the west coast of Florida as she moves north. This all depends on whether the large high over Texas holds or shifts a little west. If it holds, Irene should go up the spine of Florida according to current models. Should the high over Texas shift a little to the west, Irene could enter the Gulf of Mexico hugging the coast of Florida. This would be bad news for Florida should this happen. As stated at this time anything can happen, no track is set in stone.
TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011
...TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 58.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Here are some of the computer model plots for TS Irene at this time - * Remember we are a week out and these forecast tracks 'will change' * -
