Tropics Update August 29 2011 - Irene - Jose - TD12[Katia]

Post Tropical Irene: Irene continues to track North-Northeast at about 25MPH with Sustained winds of 35MPH, about 100 miles northwest of Houlton Maine. Current position 47.4N 68.8W with a central pressure of 981 millibars. The remaining threat from former hurricane Irene will be rain which may cause flooding.

Tropical Storm Jose: Update: 1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011...JOSE DISSIPATES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...REMNANTS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
Jose is currently tracking North at 23MPH with sustained winds of 40MPH and poses no threat to any landmass, and is expected to lose it's tropical characteristics sometime later today. Current position 37.2N 64.7W 340 miles North of Bermuda, 515 miles South of Nova Scotia, with a central pressure of 1008 millibars.


Tropical Depression 12 [formerly AL92]: As mentioned earlier, this is the tropical system we will be watching in the coming days, week, provided another more robust system doesn't form in the near.

Tropical depression 12 really kicked it into high gear last night and early today. Yesterday she was given only a 40% chance of developing in to a depression.
Currently located at 9.4N 26.3W or about 395 miles South-Southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands, moving West at about 15MPH, with sustained winds of 35MPH and a central pressure of 1009 millibars. TD12 should become a tropical storm sometime today, if not, when she does she will be named Tropical Storm Katia.

Here is the National Hurricane Center forecast track as of 5 AM EDT Monday August 29 2011 -

TD12 5amedt August 29 2011

Here are a couple Model plots for Tropical Depression 12 / Tropical Storm Katia -

TD12 2amedt August 29 2011

TD12 636amedt August 29 2011

It is much to early to tell what or where soon to become Hurricane Katia will go. Should Katia continue on the NHC forecast track she may, and I stress this, Katia 'may' impact the east coast of the U.S. Katia may well recurve, being a fish storm and impact no land what so ever. As stated, to early to know at this time and still at a minimum 2 weeks away. I'll be watching.

Tropical Storm Jose forms, Irene weakens, AL92 Tropical Wave off Africa

Computer Models / Graphics

Tropical Systems August 28 2011

Irene : Irene continues to weaken, now a Tropical Storm so we wont talk about her other than to mention that.

AL92 is the one we need to watch in the coming days, week ....

AL92 : via National Hurricane Center

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AL92 836amedt August 28 2011

Tropical Storm Jose : At this time Tropical Storm Jose posses no threat to the east coast of the U.S. Jose is expected to track north in the coming days. via NHC -

AT 800 AM AST 1200 UTC THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY AND JOSE SHOULD WEAKEN ON MONDAY.

Jose 836amedt august 28 2011