Georgia Drought Update September 1 2011

Drought conditions have worsened for much of Georgia, in the way of coverage. Here at the homestead I have had no appreciable rain since early August. I did have a quick rain shower yesterday Aug. 31 in the form of 0.11 inches, which wasn't enough to do a thing for the drought. Before this my last rain was on Aug. 11 and amounted to 0.29 inches. I finished the month of August below the average of 3.79 inches for my area with 3.52 inches. Columbus Ga to my south finished with over 5 inches. I missed reporting last week as all eyes were glued to Hurricane Irene. This graph below shows how bad things have gotten for Georgia since August 16 through August 30 2011. The area of extreme drought now covers most of the state.

I wont bore you with further details except to say, we need rain. We are watching an area in the Gulf of Mexico which is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend that may, may, bring some much needed rain to Georgia. It is to early still to tell if this will happen. Needless to say, some areas of the south and southeast are expected to receive a lot of rain from this system should it develop the way models are predicting. While we watch all of this unfold, we are still keeping an eye on Hurricane Katia which is still in open waters of the Atlantic. Models are thinking she will not make landfall in the U.S., but as before, it's early and things can and will change.

Tropical Storm Jose forms, Irene weakens, AL92 Tropical Wave off Africa

Computer Models / Graphics

Tropical Systems August 28 2011

Irene : Irene continues to weaken, now a Tropical Storm so we wont talk about her other than to mention that.

AL92 is the one we need to watch in the coming days, week ....

AL92 : via National Hurricane Center

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AL92 836amedt August 28 2011

Tropical Storm Jose : At this time Tropical Storm Jose posses no threat to the east coast of the U.S. Jose is expected to track north in the coming days. via NHC -

AT 800 AM AST 1200 UTC THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY AND JOSE SHOULD WEAKEN ON MONDAY.

Jose 836amedt august 28 2011

Hurricane Irene Update - Position at 5 AM EDT August 27 2011

As hurricane Irene continues to push northward, the biggest threat will be sporadic high wind and copious amounts of rain which will cause flooding. At the time of this writing, estimates of 1-2 to 3 million are without electrical power depending on which source you query. I'm sure this will increase as the day and hurricane Irene progress. Latest reports on deaths from Irene that I saw stand at 10, with 2 of those being children.

At this time Hurricane Irene made landfall 'again' at 5:35 a.m. EDT along the coast of New Jersey near Little Egg Inlet. The estimated intensity at landfall was 75 mph. Irene will make another landfall later this morning likely on Long Island NY around West Islip, however the Weather Channel [ Stephanie Abrams ] live at 6AM EDT stated landfall will be in Manhattan NY. Here is the current information on Irene as of 5 AM EDT --

HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...IRENE MOVING ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR NEW
YORK CITY AND INLAND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.2N 74.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

Here is the current position on the map as of 5AM EDT -

This will likely be my last post on the position of Irene. I may compile some images and videos at a later date, no promises. I will look for final totals on damage and death and may post them for the record at a later date.

Hurricane Irene Update - August 26 2011

Irene has weakened slightly at this time and is now a category 2 hurricane. Irene will continue to fluctuate in strength and size as she continues here track to the north and then northeast. Irene is a dangerous storm and these slight variations in size and strength should not be considered or overlooked as a sign of overall weakening.

People in the path of Irene should head the warnings issued and take appropriate measures to secure their well being. Property can often be replaced and there is nothing you con do to stop the power of a hurricane should it decide to take your property. Save your life, move to a safe place well inland from the storm.

Remember the reach of hurricane and tropical strength winds will be felt some distance from the actual center of the hurricane, as well as heavy flooding rains and tidal surge. At this time hurricane force winds extend outwards of 90 miles, and tropical storm force winds extend outwards up to 290 miles. Tropical storm winds are as deadly with speeds reaching 73 MPH where hurricane type devastation will occur. A wind of 50 MPH will cause trees to be uprooted and structural damage to property to occur.

Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center with projected track and model plots following the text -

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...IRENE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 77.2W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY...APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE TODAY...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD
BETWEEN CATEGORY TWO AND THREE AS IT REACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.   HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.  NOAA
BUOY 41010 LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH...119 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

Irene Forecast track as of 5amedt Aug 26 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 521amedt Aug 26 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 2amedt Aug 26 2011

Hurricane Irene Wobbles to left - Satellite Image August 24 2011

I have a bad feeling about this. Trough stalled in GA at this time, next front on the way may be to late to steer Irene away especially if she gets larger and stronger. Irene may come closer to Florida as was originally thought. Hope I'm wrong. Definite wobble to the left....

This image is from 12:30 AM EDT




Here is the latest as of 2 AM EDT -

HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE STRENGTHENING...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

And we see, they too see the wobble in the same update

AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IRENE IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH

Hurricane Irene - Model plots August 23 2011 - East Coast Runner ??

Models have shifted a little more to the east once again. It's still looking likely that North Carolina will be impacted, how much is anyone's guess. I would suggest all on the East Coast keep an eye on Hurricane Irene as she could take a left turn at any time.

Looking at the official projected path of Irene from the National Hurricane Center anywhere from Wilmington North Carolina, Morehead City up through the Outer Banks may receive a direct hit. Hurricane force winds will be felt farther inland.

Irene Forecast track as of 2pmedt Aug 23 2011

Depending on the exact track Hurricane Irene takes, areas farther to the north are not out of the woods. If Irene is an east coast runner where the eye would remain over water, many areas would be impacted. Impacts would be lessened only due to the west side of the hurricane impacting these areas. Still, the damage form high winds and flooding will be great. Should Hurricane Irene move up the coast and impact highly populated areas and major cities like Washington D.C., Philadelphia or New York City, it will be devastating to the infrastructure of these cities.

The other side of the coin, Irene may not make landfall on the U.S. East Coast at all. With the High still firmly in place west of Texas and a deepening Trough from the North East in the East and shortwaves moving down, Irene may have a problem overcoming this. Of course no one can tell for sure if this will happen so everybody will need to stay vigilant.

Here is Irene's position as of 2 PM EDT

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 71.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

Here's a look at computer model forecast plots-

Irene Forecast track as of 351pmedt Aug 23 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 2pmedt Aug 23 2011_01

Side note: Did you hear about the 5.8 Earthquake on the East Coast today in Virginia ?

Hurricane Irene - Model plots August 22 2011 - Charleston South Carolina Targeted

Surprise ... computer models tracks for Irene have shifted east. It was first thought Hurricane Irene would track up the west coast of Florida or up the spine [central]. Now focus is placed on the east coast of Florida and the east coast as a whole. The definite track is still open but the frame is narrowing day by day.

At this time the National Hurricane Center is predicting a Major Hurricane Irene to impact around Charleston South Carolina on Saturday August 27^th. Here is the current forecast track and conditions as of 2 PM EDT today -

000
WTNT34 KNHC 221748
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
200 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 68.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

Irene Forecast track as of 2pmedt Aug 22 2011

Irene Satellite as of 215pmedt Aug 22 2011

As a reminder this track is not set in stone and will change one way or the other. The NHC even reminds us of this in the Hurricane Irene discussion by stating

DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.

With that in mind, Hurricane Irene could as well make landfall in Savannah Georgia which is overdue for a hurricane. Funny in that another Hurricane named Irene passed to the east of Savannah Georgia from the SSW on October 17 1999 with 75mph winds. This far out it is anyone's guess where Hurricane Irene will go, but the window is closing. Should Hurricane Irene make landfall somewhere on the U.S. coast, this will be the first hurricane landfall on the U.S. coast since Ike in 2008.

Here are some computer model plots -

Irene Forecast track as of 8amedt Aug 22 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 236pmedt Aug 22 2011

Tropical Storm Irene - Model plots August 20 2011

Tropical Storm Irene is on the board. At this time computer models are still wide open as to where she will go. I will be monitoring Irene a bit more closely in the coming days. No since in getting all excited when I dont even know if she will survive her interaction with the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Best guess at this time is she will not traverse the Gulf of Mexico. However there is the possibility she may hug the west coast of Florida as she moves north. This all depends on whether the large high over Texas holds or shifts a little west. If it holds, Irene should go up the spine of Florida according to current models. Should the high over Texas shift a little to the west, Irene could enter the Gulf of Mexico hugging the coast of Florida. This would be bad news for Florida should this happen. As stated at this time anything can happen, no track is set in stone.

Here are the current specifics of Irene from the National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 58.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Here are some of the computer model plots for TS Irene at this time - * Remember we are a week out and these forecast tracks 'will change' * -

Irene Forecast track as of 7pmedt Aug 20 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 906pmedt Aug 20 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 2pmedt Aug 20 2011