Storm Reports - Southeast Severe Weather on December 10 2012

See Side Note at bottom

Storm and Tornado reports from Monday's Severe Weather event December 10 2012

Here's the lead up to this event posted Monday 12/10/12

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Storm Warnings / Reports issued

Storm report Links [ Links open in New tab / window ]

Tornado Damage on December 10th, 2012 Birmingham (Jefferson) EF-1 Tornado via National Weather Service Birmingham, AL

Tornadic Debris Signature - 0.5 degree correlation coefficient (CC) of Dual Pol from KBMX. There are 3 images in this loop. Notice the "explosion" of CC just east of I-65 on the last two images. This is called a Tornadic Debris Signature or TDS.

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Severe Weather Event December 10, 2012 via National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge Louisiana

Walthall County Louisiana Tornado - KLIX Storm Relative Velocity at maximum intensity at 816 AM CST 12/10/2012

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December 9-10, 2012 Tornadoes Mississippi via National Weather Service Jackson, MS

Marion County Tornado - These images from the Brandon, MS doppler radar show the tornadic thunderstorm at 8:20 am as the tornado passed near Columbia. The image on the left shows 0.5° base reflectivity data, and the image on the right shows 0.5° storm relative velocity data.

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Side note : An active weather pattern continues next week and the following week. Next week may bring some interesting winter weather to the deep southeast per current models or severe storms depending where you're at. Still a lot of uncertainty in this forecast as models continue to flip flop on final outcome. Computer models should have a better idea this weekend and I'll post an update then. ~ Ed

Follow @Cataulagawx

Hurricane #Sandy makes landfall in Cuba - October 25 2012

HURRICANE SANDY as of 2:00 AM EDT | Winds: 110 mph | Pressure 957 mb | Location: 20.1N 75.9W (10 miles North-NorthWest of Santiago, Cuba) | Moving NNE at 15 mph

At 1:25 AM EDT Sandy makes landfall just west of Santiago De Cuba with winds of 110 mph. Reports from Santiago De Cuba have sustained winds of 78 mph with wind gust up to 114 mph in the last hour. Sandy is a strong category 2 hurricane borderline category 3 which has sustained winds beginning at 111 mph.

Hurricane Sandy making landfall in Cuba [radar may be down at times]

Stay updated on Sandy at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone and Foot's Forecast | South Florida & The Keys. See also ...

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Hurricane #Sandy a Strong Category 2 - 110 mph winds - #Cuba Radar

Sandy may reach Category 3 before landfall in Southeast Cuba.

Sandy has rapidly intensified over the last twelve hours, including a large drop in pressure. This classifies her as a "bomb" in the meteorological sense.

She is a very large storm, covering almost a million square miles. Because of her girth, we don't expect the Islands to weaken her much, and she will impact South Florida over the next 24 hours.

Current:
Winds: 110 mph
Pressure 957 mb
Location: 19.6N 76.1W (30 miles SW of Santiago, Cuba)
Moving NNE at 13 mph

Hurricane Sandy making landfall in Cuba

Stay updated on Sandy .. You can find myself and others on Facebook at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone and Foot's Forecast | South Florida & The Keys.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Hurricane #Ernesto Makes Landfall | 1115pm EDT 1015pm CDT 8/07/2012

Ernesto makes landfall near Mahahual Mexico area as an 85mph hurricane.

Belize Radar at 10:30 CDT

Currently Ernesto is located at 18.7 North 87.7 West or over the northern Banco Chinchorro Islands Mexico and has sustained winds of 85 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West at 15 MPH and this direction of travel is expected to continue overnight with a turn toward the West-Northwest Wednesday. The central Pressure is 980 MB or 28.94 inches. Ernesto is about 40 Miles EAST of Chetumal Mexico. Hurricane Force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from Ernesto's center and Tropical Storm Winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO

Huracan ERNESTO Aviso Publico http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/SJUTCPAT5+shtml/080312.shtml


Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.

 Active Tropical Systems - Tropical Storm Ernesto

Storms on track,Mississippi,Alabama and Georgia June 4 2012

7:04 AM 6/4/2012


As mentioned yesterday Sunday, June 3, 2012, storms will be impacting the southeast today. Some areas saw severe storms yesterday, including Tornadoes.

At this time there is a Mesoscale Convective System ongoing in North Mississippi and Alabama. This MCS will continue moving south / southeast through the morning hours. This storm complex is generating severe storms producing damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH, hail to 1.5 inches, dangerous frequent lightning and heavy rain. The individual cells embedded within this complex are moving southeast at a rapid pace of between 45 and 70 MPH. There is also another one behind this one that may impact the same areas during the overnight and into Tuesday June 5.

The tornado threat remains low at this time, but 1 or 2 can not be entirely ruled out due to the nature of the storm system. The main threat will remain strong damaging winds and hail. Instability increases this afternoon where once aging severe weather is expected.

At this time the Storms Prediction Center has large areas in Alabama and Georgia highlighted in a 'slight risk' area. Meaning a better chance of seeing thunderstorms than not.

The SPC also has the same areas from the graphic above highlighted for strong winds and hail.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

There are no severe thunderstorm watches or Tornado watches in effect at this time. This is likely to change at some point this morning due to the evolving cluster of storms. There is a Mesoscale Discussion, which is basically outlining the possibility of some type of Weather Watch being issued. At 6:33 PM EDT, this probability is at 60%. The highlighted area in the graphic is the general area the watch will be issued for.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

See the lead up post on this event, posted on Sunday, June 3, 2012 at 10:49 AM : Severe Storms possible in Georgia and Alabama June 4/5 2012

Georgia / Alabama - Columbus GA / Phenix City Al - Weather 4/16/- 4/17 2012

Quick weather update because I know some are concerned after what happened out west this weekend during the severe weather outbreak.

The weather locally in West central Georgia and East central Alabama will be Nothing like what we saw out west this weekend.

Like I mentioned a few days ago on Facebook, Thunderstorms / thundershowers some which 'could' turn severe. Where that may happen and when, no one knows.

Things should pick up later tonight April 16 and showers / thunderstorms should continue through a good portion of tomorrow April 17. There is some instability which means a strong storm is possible. Stronger storms later could produce some small hail and gusty winds.

Currently [4:00 PM EDT / 3:00 PM CDT - 4/16/2012] There are NO Watches or Warnings for the area.

Here's the local radar.

RADAR IMAGE REMOVED, NO LONGER PERTINENT

You can see more radar's covering the local area and Southeast on the GA / AL Local Radar Page

Wet and Stormy Southeast Friday and Saturday March 23-24 2012

Showers & Storms around Today Thursday ...

[ Radar removed, no longer relevant ]

Based on what I see at this time [2:23 PM EDT 3/22/2012] this is looking more and more like a rain event for the area. Looking at the possibility of 1 inch maybe a little more at this time in the local area. There will be thunderstorms around in the afternoon hours Friday through Saturday morning as the front closes in and moves through the area. The biggest threat at this time appears to be gusty winds with any of the stronger storms that may develop, and the possibility of small hail.

If anything were to become severe in the local area, my thinking is it will be Friday early evening around or after 4 PM EDT during the warmest part of the day. This is not to say that embedded strong storms that may develop within the approaching line of convection before or after this time might go severe. However my thinking is this is not likely to happen given the time frame the front will be pushing through the area.
Enforcing my thinking are marginal at best instabilities. The highest CAPE at the time mentioned above is 709 j/kg, Shear approaching 30kts and Helicity at 74.

Most if not all severe potential should remain south of the Columbus Phenix City Area. To the West and East of the Columbus and Phenix City, severe storms should also remain below this line in Alabama and Georgia based on current analysis. AGAIN, This is not to say that any strong embedded storm that may develop within the approaching line of convection could go severe.

Here's the outlook for Friday 8 AM thru Saturday 8 AM

The local area is on the fringe of the Slight Risk area.

This one shows the local area in a 5% area of seeing severe storms

In the above graphics we do not see the progression of the system through the overnight hours. That being said, during the overnight early morning hours Saturday, the local area will likely be included in the slight risk area and the 15% area of seeing severe storms. However during the overnight hours the threat should remain LOW.


Here's the outlook for Saturday 8 AM thru Sunday 8 AM

The local area is on the fringe of the Slight Risk area.

This one shows the local area in a 5% area of seeing severe storms

Images provided by the Strom Prediction Center

January 23 2012 Alabama Tornado Radar images....

Thanks to Meteorologist Matthew East News 14 Carolina for posting these Radar Captures on his blog of the tornadic supercell that impacted Jefferson county, Center Point, Maplesville, and Clanton areas in Alabama. You can check them out here Damage was reported in Jefferson County communities of Oak Grove, Pinson, Center Point and Trussville.

In the coming days, I'll have some RADAR Captures posted I took as the storms pushed closer to my area in Georgia.

Cherokee County Georgia Tornado Track Images

Tornado Details

Location: Cherokee County
Rating: EF-1
Wind Speed: 90MPH
Path Length: 24 miles
Path Width: 1/4 mile
Injuries: 1
Deaths: 0
Additional Information: The initial touchdown was just south of Dixie Speedway near Woodstock in south Central Cherokee County. The tornado moved north to northeast and then lifted completely near Nelson in north central Cherokee County. Brookshire and Towne Lake Hills South subdivisions were the hardest hit with 400 homes damaged or destroyed.

Path of EF-1 tornado that struck Cherokee County.

Storm Report

0311 PM     TORNADO          3 WSW WOODSTOCK         34.08N 84.57W
09/05/2011  F1               CHEROKEE           GA   NWS STORM SURVEY

            *** 1 INJ *** MAX WIND SPEED 90 MPH...PATH LENGTH 24
            MILES SEMI-CONTINUOUS...MAX PATH WIDTH 1/4 MILE. INITIAL
            TOUCH DOWN JUST SOUTH OF DIXIE SPEEDWAY NEAR WOODSTOCK IN
            SOUTH CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTY...MOVED NORTH TO NORTHEAST
            THEN LIFTED COMPLETELY NEAR NELSON IN NORTH CENTRAL
            CHEROKEE COUNTY. BROOKSHIRE AND TOWNE LAKE HILLS SOUTH
            SUBDIVISIONS HARDEST HIT WITH 400 HOMES DAMAGED OR
            DESTROYED. 1 CONFIRMED INJURY.

Reflectivity image of Cherokee County tornado.

Storm Relative Velocity of Cherokee County tornado.

Damage to a house in Holly Springs, GA (Cherokee County).

Damage from the EF-1 tornado in Cherokee County.

Trees snapped by the EF-1 tornado in Holly Springs, GA (Cherokee County).

Information provided by National Weather Service - Peachtree City, GA

See related: Tornadoes in Georgia on September 5 2011 published September 6, 2011

Tornadoes in Georgia on September 5 2011

Numerous reports of Tornadoes, Funnel Clouds, Wind Damage and Flooding in Georgia due to Tropical Storm Lee and it's interaction with a Cold Front that moved toward the area from the northwest. Combined, these two features probably caused more severe weather than TSLee would have alone.

While the local area was spared from most of the severe weather [more on this below], others were not. Here area confirmed as well as unconfirmed reports on tornadoes in Georgia as of 9/06/11 :

Confirmed

0311 PM     TORNADO          3 WSW WOODSTOCK         34.08N 84.57W
09/05/2011  F1               CHEROKEE           GA   NWS STORM SURVEY

            *** 1 INJ *** MAX WIND SPEED 90 MPH...PATH LENGTH 24
            MILES SEMI-CONTINUOUS...MAX PATH WIDTH 1/4 MILE. INITIAL
            TOUCH DOWN JUST SOUTH OF DIXIE SPEEDWAY NEAR WOODSTOCK IN
            SOUTH CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTY...MOVED NORTH TO NORTHEAST
            THEN LIFTED COMPLETELY NEAR NELSON IN NORTH CENTRAL
            CHEROKEE COUNTY. BROOKSHIRE AND TOWNE LAKE HILLS SOUTH
            SUBDIVISIONS HARDEST HIT WITH 400 HOMES DAMAGED OR
            DESTROYED. 1 CONFIRMED INJURY.

Unconfirmed

0235 PM     TORNADO          WINSTON                 33.73N 84.83W
09/05/2011                   DOUGLAS            GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AMATEUR RADIO RELAYED A REPORT FROM A TRAINED SPOTTER OF
            A TORNADO NEAR WINSTON.

0245 PM     TORNADO          POWDER SPRINGS          33.86N 84.68W
09/05/2011                   COBB               GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AMATEUR RADIO RELAYED TRAINED SPOTTER REPORT OF TORNADO
            IN THE MACKLIN WOODS AREA OF POWDER SPRINGS.

0313 PM     TORNADO          1 W WOODSTOCK           34.10N 84.54W
09/05/2011                   CHEROKEE           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 INJ *** CHEROKEE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
            RELAYED REPORTS DAMAGE ALONG A LINE FROM THE
            COBB-CHEROKEE LINE WEST OF WOODSTOCK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
            ENTIRE COUNTY ENTERING PICKENS COUNTY. 1 CONFIRMED INJURY
            AND DAMAGE TO MULTIPLE STRUCTURES ALONG ITS PATH. SEVERAL
            ROADS ARE STILL CLOSED DUE TO DEBRIS BLOCKAGE.

0313 PM     TORNADO          1 W WOODSTOCK           34.10N 84.54W
09/05/2011                   CHEROKEE           GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CHEROKEE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED A LAW

            ENFORCEMENT REPORT OF A TORNADO 1 MILE WEST OF WOODSTOCK.

0315 PM     TORNADO          WOODSTOCK               34.10N 84.52W
09/05/2011                   CHEROKEE           GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN WOODSTOCK. TREES WERE
            DOWNED ONTO 2 HOUSES...SHINGLES TAKEN OFF ROOFS...AND
            TOWNLAKE PARKWAY WAS BLOCKED BY NUMEROUS TREES.

As mentioned, the local area was spared from Tornado Damage. I do not know of any Tornadoes touching down, or being reported in the local area at this time. This may change as the National Weather Service continues to survey storm damage in Georgia caused by possible tornadoes and high winds. High winds at this time are believed to be the cause of damage reported in Columbus and Mulberry Grove in Harris County.

Click all images below to enlarge, then use your back button to return here.

Here is my account of the Storm that may have caused the damage in Columbus and Mulberry Grove in Harris County, as Tweeted and posted on Facebook.

https://twitter.com/#!/CataulaGaWX/status/110767244526616576
Watching a cell in Barbour Co. Alabama for development heading into Russel Co. , About an hour away from Columbus #gawx #cataulagawx #alwx

https://twitter.com/#!/CataulaGaWX/status/110773665045561344
Not liking the looks of cell in central Russell County Alabama #gawx #alwx #cataulagawx

https://twitter.com/#!/CataulaGaWX/status/110774681082142720
NWS has issued a Tornado Warning for Lee & Russell Counties until 01:30 PM CDT #alwx #gawx

https://twitter.com/#!/CataulaGaWX/status/110777184309886976
Tornado Warning for Lee And Russell County Alabama until 2:30 EDT. This storm is moving in the direction of North... http://fb.me/U6fnadve
And the post the link above goes to on Facebook
Tornado Warning for Lee And Russell County Alabama until 2:30 EDT. This storm is moving in the direction of North West Columbus and Harris County. Muscogee and Harris counties are not under a warning. Just a heads up.
Which included this image-
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=1363364&l=2256890dc2&id=220151324667478

https://twitter.com/#!/CataulaGaWX/status/110777892195151872
This Storm has the possibility of impacting Muscogee and Harris County http://goo.gl/nA2wc #gawx #alwx

https://twitter.com/#!/CataulaGaWX/status/110779494490570752
TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTHWESTERN MUSCOGEE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA UNTIL 300 PM EDT

https://twitter.com/#!/CataulaGaWX/status/110783128146165760
Heres an Idea of where the possible Tornado will pass in Muscogee and Harris counties GA http://goo.gl/BBGMh #gawx
And the post the link above goes to on Facebook which included this image
https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeatherAlerts/posts/187090364698053

https://twitter.com/#!/CataulaGaWX/status/110785142271909889
THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MUSCOGEE COUNTY IS CANCELLED #gawx

https://twitter.com/#!/CataulaGaWX/status/110785577418375168
THE TORNADO WARNING FOR Western and Central Harris County GA still active until 3:00 PM EDT #gawx

https://twitter.com/#!/CataulaGaWX/status/110789247069466624
TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY SOUTHERN MERIWETHER SOUTHEASTERN TROUP IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA UNTIL 345 PM EDT #gawx


Here area a couple of images showing velocity data taken during the same time period as the images above.

Here are Georgia Tornado Warnings that were issued on September 5 2011 from 6 AM thru 10 PM EDT

Hurricane Irene Update - Landfall August 27 2011

Hurricane Irene is now a Strong category 1 hurricane. With winds still expected to be a threat early on, the bigger threat will be storm surge and rain amounts. This is provided she continues to weaken as she moves north northeast on her projected track.

Here are a couple screen grabs I took moments ago -

Hurricane Irene making landfall 524AMEDT AUGUST 27 2011

Hurricane Irene Rain total 1040pm-519amedt August 27 2011 Roughly 6½ hours

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center at 5 AM EDT, with forecast track and model plots following the text.

HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST.  IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE
IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY ONE AND CATEGORY TWO
STRENGTH.  SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IRENE REACHES THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS
IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
260 MILES...415 KM.  THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE LOOKOUT
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 61 MPH...98 KM/H...AND A WIND
GUST OF 78 MPH...126 KM/H.  A STORM SPOTTER IN STACY NORTH CAROLINA
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 93 MPH...150 KM/H. 

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.  A NOAA BUOY IN
ONSLOW BAY NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 
963.1 MB...28.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE WARNING AREA TODAY.  HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING
ONTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE DAY.  TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS
MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS.  STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.  STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.

Irene Forecast track as of 5amedt Aug 27 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 536amedt Aug 27 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 2amedt Aug 27 2011

Acknowledgment: To be a tornado or not to be

'To be a tornado or not to be' is the title of an article by one of our local metoroligist Bob Jeswald, Chief Meteorologist at WRBL News 3. Within the article that follwed, Bob was kind enough to give me a mention. What Bob refered to were the storms that rolled through the local area on Friday June 17 2011, and my post this past Sunday June 19 : Detecting Storm Rotation on Radar : an examination.

Here is some of what Bob said:

We always welcome good debate and examination by Cataula GA WX. This was a good observation by Cataula GA WX but as a trained meteorologist, David Reese made the right call in my opinion.

I was out that day at Bradley Park as seen by the credited photos I took. I can see how it can be misinterpreted visually but on radar it does look more bow and a straight line event. You can sometimes get a small spin out rotating vortex cloud but this is not a classic definition of a tornado in this case and the extent of damage doesn't support a tornado.

David Reese is a meteorologist also on WRBL News 3 and was at work this past Friday covering the severe weather for us. He and Bob are fast becoming a trusted source for weather in the local area, as well as creating dialogue on social networks. I look forward to many more conversations with them as a learning amateur who has always had a passion for weather.

Thank you David and Bob for your interaction and understanding.

Ed aka cataulagawx

Detecting Storm Rotation on Radar : an examination

Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes and in no way is meant to flame or discredit the fine local meteorologist. They do a great job!

First a little history for the reason of this post.

On June 17 2011 we had some storms move through the area. The Emergency Alert System [EAS] better known to many as Tornado warning siren went off in Columbus Georgia. Once again there was no official warning issued by the National Weather Service [NWS]. Many again wonder why it went off. At the time some rough weather causing damage to our west in Alabama was being reported in Phenix City.

This is the E-Z Car wash on hwy 80 next to Zebs in Phenix City. Image Credit Skye Cameron Brown

I was watching the radars for any sign of severe weather. I commented on the picture above on Facebook:

Thats crazy. Maybe this is why the sirens went off in Columbus. Also, I took a couple screen shots of radar and may see what appears to be a hook echo on composite, and rotation on velocity. I'll get them loaded tomorrow.

Others also commented, even the original poster which is one of our local meteorologist, so I loaded them the same night. Here is the conversation that followed. Names left out to protect the innocent. The local met will be denoted with WEATHER.

WEATHER: Cataula... What radar site were you using?
Yesterday at 6:36pm

Cataula Ga Weather: NWS - FFC Composite and MXX Storm Relative
Yesterday at 6:47pm

WEATHER: Interesting... because I don't see a hook echo at all within the past three hours. I see areas of extended rain where the downdrafts were pulling the rain further ahead though.

Cataula Ga Weather: give me a minute and I post them on my wall
Yesterday at 7:03pm

Cataula Ga Weather: radar shots are up
Yesterday at 7:42pm

WEATHER: Cataula, I don't see a hook echo in the radar or relative velocity. The inbound winds (green) along the county line there was the inflow jet that got the line to basically bow out. This wasn't a classic case, but it was just the southern edge of the line trying to catch up to the northern half.

Kevin is correct in his remarks about the atmosphere not primed to produce a mesocylone. We generally see those with discreet supercell thunderstorms (like the April 27th event). Also, the shear wasn't nearly conducive to allow the formation of a tornado.

Many people experienced the winds rushing from the top of the thunderstorms and this brought the clouds closer to the ground, giving the illusion of a tornado.
Yesterday at 7:56pm

Cataula Ga Weather: Thats why you're the pro. Sure looked like rotation to the untrained eye. That being mine.
Yesterday at 8:01pm

WEATHER: No problem Cataula! That's why we are here.

Not being one for argument as I'm only a weather hobbyist, I left it at that. But now I want to examine the images I posted further.

As stated in the conversation, I was viewing the radars 'FFC Composite Reflectivity and MXX Storm Relative Motion'. FFC is radar from NWS Peachtree City Georgia, and MXX is from Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama. Here are the images, unedited as they are on Facebook. FFC Composite Reflectivity on left and MXX Storm Relative Motion [velocity] on right.

As you can see in the image on the left, I circled an area where I see a possible hook echo. I circled a large area so as not to obstruct the surrounding storm. The hook I am speaking of can be seen at the bottom in the county that Auburn is in. Here it is in this edited image, yellow arrow pointing to it.

In the image on the left [from above]taken a moment after the first you can see the 'red' just below Aurburn. Here it is edited, yellow arrow pointing to it.

Again from the above conversation the meteorologist said:

WEATHER: Cataula, I don't see a hook echo in the radar or relative velocity. The inbound winds (green) along the county line there was the inflow jet that got the line to basically bow out. This wasn't a classic case, but it was just the southern edge of the line trying to catch up to the northern half.

This may still be the case as he is the one with the proper education. I still see a hook in the Composite Reflectivity and Rotation in the Velocity image. I never said Tornado which was mentioned in the conversation.

In all velocity images, red colors indicate wind moving away from the radar with green colors representing wind moving toward the radar. It is very important to know where the radar is located as that is your reference point for proper interpolation of the wind's motion. As mentioned, I was viewing the velocity image from MXX from Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama. Here is it's location.

As you can see it is located around Montgomery Alabama, well west of the target rotation in the above velocity image. Regardless, where you see red and green come together, that is an area of wind rotation. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I didn't get to the Georgia storm reports from National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA [FFC] before they were removed. I wish FFC kept the information up longer like National Weather Service Birmingham, AL [BMX] does.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL


0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LADONIA                 32.46N 85.09W
06/17/2011                   RUSSELL            AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            AWNING BLOWN OFF OF CAR WASH ALONG HIGHWAY 80. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

---------

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W PHENIX CITY         32.47N 85.10W
06/17/2011                   RUSSELL            AL   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 208 NEAR HIGHWAY 80
            COMPLETELY BLOCKING THE ROAD.

---------

0255 PM     HAIL             3 SE OPELIKA            32.62N 85.34W
06/17/2011  E1.00 INCH       LEE                AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

You may have caught the mention of 'mesocylone' and 'inflow jet' in the above conversation.
A mesocylone is a vortex within a convective storm and has air that rises and rotates around a vertical axis. Most of the time this is associated with a 'supercell' thunderstorm. Sometimes the winds become violent enough to produce what we call a tornado. Sometimes they don't, such as the case here. Still, there was rotation in the storm I'm talking about.
An inflow jet is cooler air at the surface and warmer air aloft created from convection. This can create what is known as a 'Bow Echo' and is usually associated with 'straight line winds', which is what caused the damage around the area on June 17.

Here are some more images of the storms as they pushed through.

Image Credit Mathew Cook

Image Credit Mathew Cook

Image credit Bob Jeswald WRBL

Image credit Bob Jeswald WRBL