Rain Sleet and Snow coming to Alabama and Georgia

A chance for wintery weather in the deep south will be coming in Thursday night into Friday morning. Get your cameras ready haha.

Best area for accumulation will be in the norther areas of Alabama and Georgia. There is likely to be no accumulation except on elevated and grassy areas in the central areas of both states as surface temperatures will be to warm.

In areas it will begin as a rain sleet mix and may change to snow briefly. In others areas it may begin as a sleet snow mix and change to all snow. Best time of this, from west to east will be between 3 AM and 10 Am Friday morning.

Confirmed Tornado Lee County Alabama on May 13 2012

The weather for Sunday May 13 2012 was not unexpected. However, being the weekend, there was not much coverage. You know how local TV stations are on weekends, nothing until the evening news, unless there is a weather warning of some type. For a full rundown on the lack of weather news that day, see here - Well, that was interesting..storms on May 13 2012..Only Human

On with the Tornado in Lee County Alabama report ...

This was not a classic tornado, nor was it strong and long lived. It was what many in weather refer to as a 'quick spin up'. Most tornadoes of this type occur due to an increasing unstable atmosphere in or around a strong thunderstorm. This is why you should take a 'severe thunderstorm warning' just as serious as a Tornado Warning, as many times a tornado can spin up. Another reason is because severe thunderstorms are capable of causing damage equal to small tornadoes such as the one here in Lee county due to straight line winds.

The funny thing about this Tornado, the Tornadic winds estimated in the official assessment below barely met criteria for a Severe Thunderstorm. That being winds of at least 58 mph (50 knots).

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
109 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

0202 PM CDT TORNADO 2 SSW ROXANA 32.66N 85.69W
05/13/2012 F0 LEE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST WEST OF COUNTY ROAD 217 AND CROSSED THE ROAD WHERE IT DID DAMAGE TO TREE BRANCHES INCLUDING ONE DOWNED TREE BRANCH. THE TORNADO CONTINUED 2.1 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST AND CROSSED COUNTY ROAD 66 WHERE IT SNAPPED ONE SMALL PINE TREE BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS EF-0 TORNADO HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH A PATH WIDTH OF 50 YARDS.

Here's a Radar storm-relative velocity capture I took at 3:09 EDT / 2:09 CDT while watching the storm:

Here are a couple maps of the area. The first showing a wide view of the area with landmarks, and the second zoomed in.

Well, that was interesting..storms on May 13 2012..Only Human

A dry slot worked into the area allowing sunshine to peek out, heat up, and destabilize the area.

On Sunday May 13 2012 I was lazing around, just taking it easy. I wasn't expecting any strong storms after looking at computer models / data in the early morning hours. Scratch that, I was expecting some, possibly severe, but that was for the overnight hours of Saturday May 12 into the early morning hours of Sunday May 13. Not Sunday afternoon and evening !!!

In case you couldn't read the above, this is the pertinent part, myself talking about storm potential on Saturday May 12 at 2:44 PM EDT:

As far as anything bad .... Later tonight there appears to be a chance of some stronger storms, judging by wind profiles. The problem with this is, it is hard to pin down an exact area as this will be Isolated events, not widespread. Hopefully the band of rain that came through this morning and the one headed our way in the next hour will keep the local area more stable later, due to limited heating from cloud cover.

After the storms failed to materialize Saturday night, early Sunday morning, I figured the atmosphere was stable and would remain so as clouds and rain were in the forecast. I feel kinda bad that I didn't look at models / data Sunday morning sometime and pick up on this. I kinda feel a little better knowing even the Pro's missed it as well, locally and government. Well sorta with the gov as the Storm Prediction Center did mention a Tornado or two in their update at 0748 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012, but not earlier.

As a matter of fact, this is what the SPC said Earlier at 1211 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012, which was the last I looked at from them.:

FL PANHANDLE INTO ERN TN...

UPPER VORT MAX IS SHEARING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS AL INTO NRN GA BY 18Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE A LONGER WAVE TROUGH WILL LAG ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS AHEAD OF UPPER VORT SHOULD LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE MORE THAN A 5% RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

This is from one of the local TV stations weather Facebook page, posted Sunday May 13 2012 at 12:59 PM EDT ..

As we talked about yesterday we would see "Periods" of rain on our Sunday. It may be dry where you live right now, but another round is moving through right now.

This is from the other local TV station Facebook page, posted May 13 2012 at 7:19 AM EDT ..

interactive weather clearly shows rainfall tapering off west to east. We still will see afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Nothing severe, this is the good news. The primary threat will be the advancing front, with the surface low later this afternoon and tonight. A few of these storms will likely produce strong winds.

For the most part the local area did NOT see any severe weather, but it was all around us. As close as Lee, Chambers and Tallapoosa counties in Alabama just across the Chattahoochee river, Tornado Warning. It is considered the local area. We also had a Flash Flood Warning issued that lasted about 4 hours for Muscogee and Harris counties, due to heavy heavy rain. I live in Harris county.

Here's a graphic showing the warnings on Sunday:

OK, enough of this .. we all make mistakes .. on with the show. Here's some pics of storms in the area.

This is from Brandon Thomas down in Barbour county Alabama. He decided to go chase the storms moving through his area. Here is his description; "Brief funnel as the wall cloud began emerging over the lake. — in Eufaula, Alabama."

And another form Brandon, description - "Wall cloud over the lake with RFD cut to the left. — in Eufaula, Alabama."

One more from Brandon - "Slowly rotating wall cloud with inflow tail forming.
— in Eufaula, Alabama."

This one is from Cody Nickel, a student at Mississippi State University majoring in Meteorology, while home on break. He was looking west toward Alabama from an upper floor window at the medical center in downtown Columbus Georgia.

Here's one showing street flooding in Columbus from Belinda Brewer. We had copious amounts of rain. Here at the homestead I recorded 2.83 inches on Sunday.

Georgia Drought Update - May 3 2012

As anticipated, the small area of drought improvement in Northeast Georgia last week, is all but gone this week.

Since my last drought update on April 23 2012, it has been quite dry across much of Georgia. Abnormally Dry conditions continue to cover much of North Georgia, with Moderate drought conditions beginning to creep back in.
Severe Drought conditions continue to hold in areas of Southeast and North central Georgia, ever so slowly creeping towards North Georgia.
Extreme Drought conditions now cover a large area of Georgia from North Central to the state line with Florida.
Exceptional Drought conditions, the highest level of drought, has expanded in Central Georgia while other areas experiencing Exceptional Drought in south Georgia remaining unchanged since my last report.

The overall breakdown on drought conditions in Georgia as of May 1 2012 are as follows:

The entire state of Georgia is experiencing Abnormally Dry conditions, 96.50 %, except for a small area mentioned in North GA.
Moderate Drought covers 88.56 % of the state.
Severe Drought covers 84.28 % of the state.
Extreme Drought covers 70.94 % of the state.
Exceptional Drought covers 25.85 % of the state.

Here's a graphic showing Drought conditions from April 17 thru May 1 2012

To show how dry it has been in Georgia and much of the southeast, here's a graphic showing how much rain these areas have seen since the beginning of 2012. Notice the areas of Red in Georgia and Florida; these areas have only received 50 to 25 percent of normal rainfall since the start of the year.

To put the above in perspective, here's a graphic showing departure from normal rainfall from May of 2011 thru April 2012. Much of Georgia is showing a deficit of 8 inches with areas in southwest Georgia pushing the 20 inch below normal mark.

Here's a look at precipitation or lack of for select areas around the state of Georgia through May 2 2012.

This first table shows total rainfall for the last 365 days:

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
            LAST 365 DAYS    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA         32.33        49.74       -17.41        65%
ATHENS          29.11        46.39       -17.28        63%
COLUMBUS        38.40        46.81        -8.41        82%
MACON           28.91        45.75       -16.84        63%

This table shows total rainfall fro the last 90 days:

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
           (LAST 90 DAYS)    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA         7.53         12.91        -5.38        58%
ATHENS          5.89         12.12        -6.23        49%
COLUMBUS        7.88         13.52        -5.64        58%
MACON           5.30         11.87        -6.57        45%

At this time it's looking like drought conditions will continue to expand and intensify for Georgia. I expect the same can be said for much of the southeast as I see no reason at this time not to think this. It appears a summer type pattern has set up early this year with scattered hit and miss showers and storms, and as earlier this week in Georgia, above average and record breaking high temperatures. Showers and storms of this type offer little relief for drought stricken areas, and what little rain may fall is quickly absorbed in the dry earth and back into the atmosphere.

Here's a look at Drought conditions across the rest of the U.S.:

And the latest Drought Outlook released May 3 2012:

For past Drought reports see the Drought Files. From 2007 to current date.

Georgia Drought Update - April 23 2012

As we begin to move into the Warmer Spring and Hotter Summer months, it's time once again to monitor the drought situation in Georgia and the south more closely.

Since my last drought update on February 2, the situation in Georgia has not improved. In fact, only 4.39 percent of the state is without drought at this time compared to 14.41 percent 2 months ago.

Due to lack of rainfall this winter we are seeing 'abnormally dry' conditions creep back into North Georgia quite early this year. In central and south Georgia drought conditions overall have not improved greatly, except in the southeast corner where a small area is now in 'severe drought' down from 'extreme'.

Here are some rainfall totals for select areas in Georgia from the National Weather Service Peachtree City GA.:

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
            LAST 365 DAYS    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA        32.93         49.76      -16.83         66%
ATHENS         30.14         46.39      -16.25         65%
COLUMBUS       38.39         46.78       -8.39         82%
MACON          28.66         45.72      -17.06         63%

Across the southeast and the rest of the nation we see some improvement in Texas north to Kansas, while Florida and the northeast remain dry.

The areas in Florida and the northeast this past weekend continuing today in the northeast have seen some much needed rains due to a Low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico. The LP moved over areas of the Florida Panhandle and up the east coast where it has joined with another low bringing rains and April snow to the northeast. How much drought relief in these areas is yet to be calculated.

Here is a graphic showing Percentage of Normal precipitation in the Southeast since the beginning of 2012 through April 19 2012. Notice the darker RED shaded areas, which have seen much below normal rainfall since the beginning of 2012.

Here is a graphic showing Departure from Normal Precipitation April 2011 through March 2012. Again, the darker shaded RED areas show area that have seen little rainfall. Some areas are 16 to 20 inches below normal for the lats 12 months.

If all this was not bad enough concerning drought in the higher impacted areas across the U.S., the seasonal drought outlook for April through June of 2012 paints a dry picture, where drought is to persist or intensify.

Concerning the drought situation in the southeast; the National Weather Service / Southeast River Forecast Center released and assessment on April 17 2012. Here's an excerpt of what was stated in the release. Needless to say, it's not looking good for the southeast....

National Weather Service
Southeast River Forecast Center
Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment - Drought
4:00 p.m. Tuesday, April 17, 2012

… Lack of rainfall during the month of March over much of the Southeast has helped to intensify the drought in parts of Alabama and South Carolina, and much of Georgia and Florida …

Typically each year the Southeast usually sees significant improvement in its water resource situation during the month of March. Climatologically, March can produce flooding as well as beneficial recharge to reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater. This has not been a typical year, and therefore, a variety of factors have led to the deterioration of water resource conditions.

Looking Ahead

The forecast for the May, June, and July time frame looks similar to what the Southeast is experiencing now. With no large-scale weather pattern, there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast. With initial conditions being so dire right now, below-normal precipitation would produce significant problems across many of the areas already dealing with drought conditions, causing reservoirs to fall more quickly than in the past. Even normal rainfall will not help conditions significantly. Above-normal rainfall will be needed to improve conditions.

You can read the whole report with graphics here. This is a PDF - http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/USNWS/2012/04/17/file_attachments/106813/HVA_apr1612.pdf

Storm Reports Across the Southeast April 5/6 2012 - Map

While the local area was spared from severe weather once again, other areas in the southeast weren't as lucky.

In Georgia Hail was reported in many areas. The largest being 1 inch. Wind damage was also reported, but no estimated speed was given in reports. Locally [ Columbus GA ] there was a report of Pea Size Hail and No wind damage that I'm aware of in the area.

In Alabama like most areas reporting severe weather in the Southeast, Hail was the most reported. The largest Hail reported in Alabama was 1.75 inches. There were a few wind reports in Alabama downing trees, with the strongest being estimated at 67 MPH. Alabama also had reports of flash flooding in the north and a couple reports of Lightning damage.

Other areas in the southeast reported severe weather as well. South Carolina, North Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas and Tennessee. All reported Hail and Wind, with a Funnel cloud reported in Louisiana and an unconfirmed report of a Tornado in the bootheel of Missouri and another Tornado being reported numerous times in Missouri as well.

Here's a map of storm reports April 5 12Am thru April 6 3AM. Most reports were on April 5 2012.

Here's another map showing Hail reports of 2 inches or larger and Winds 65KT [74.8 MPH] or stronger and Tornado reports April 5 2012.

You can see my posts leading up to this event :

Tuesday, April 3, 2012 - Georgia / Alabama Potential Severe Storms Weds/Thurs April 4/5 2012

Wednesday, April 4, 2012 - Alabama / Georgia Severe potential LOW Thurs/Fri April 5/6 2012

3:30 AM Thursday, April 5, 2012 - Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012

10:23 AM Thursday, April 5, 2012 - Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012 - Updated Graphics

Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012 - Updated Graphics

Greatest overall threat remains Damaging Large Hail and Strong Damaging Wind for much of the Southeast.

The Storm Prediction Center has updated their graphics. The updates include adding a portion of Mississippi to the Slight Risk area, and a small portion of Central Florida in a 5% Tornado risk area. Most of the Southeast continues to be in the slight risk area of severe thunderstorms and the 2% risk area of seeing a tornado.

The biggest changes from earlier this morning are the Wind and Hail risk areas which were at 15%.

SPC 9 AM EDT Day 1 Outlook increases Damaging Wind Prob to 30% All of Georgia, Much of Alabama and Florida panhandle.
SPC 9 AM EDT Day 1 Outlook increases Large Hail Prob to 30% for Areas in North/Central Georgia, Alabama , NE Mississippi. and SE Tennessee.

You can see the previous outlook on the blog here

Updated Graphics via the Storm Prediction Center

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along there :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012

Still expecting some thunderstorms to meet or exceed severe criteria.

As mentioned yesterday the greatest overall threats still remain Hail, gusty wind and frequent lightning with any of the stronger storms. I will now include a small risk of a Tornado or two somewhere in the southeast as mentioned on April 3rd.

While the overall categorical outlook remains unchanged form yesterday which included much of the southeast from The Gulf coast north through Central Louisiana, north into Missouri and then east to a small area in south Illinois, through the southern half of Kentucky and a small area in southwest Virginia, continuing east through North Carolina to the east coast, the Slight Risk of severe storms has shifted farther north and west.

The Slight risk area yesterday April 4th included Southeast Mississippi into South Alabama a portion of South Georgia and Much of Florida. It NOW covers ALL of Georgia and Alabama, much of Florida and South Carolina, Most of Central Mississippi north and south towards Alabama, Much of Tennessee and a small area in Southwest North Carolina.

I have reinserted a small Tornado threat for the southeast due to the fact the Storm Prediction Center has now included it in the updated graphics as of 2:00 AM EDT 4/5/2012. The areas mentioned above in the 'slight risk area' are also covered by this 2% tornado probability area.

As mentioned above, the greatest threats form any severe storms that may develop will come from Hail and Gusty winds. The areas mentioned above covered by the categorical outlook [in Green] are included in the risk areas for hail and wind.

The overall Hail risk is 5% with an area of 15% risk covering the 'slight risk areas' mentioned above [in yellow].

The overall Wind risk is 5% with an area of 15% risk covering the 'slight risk areas' mentioned above [in yellow].

Here are expected rain amounts April 5 through April 10..

To reiterate ... greatest threats will be Hail and Gusty winds from any strong thunderstorm that may develop and a small chance of a Tornado.


As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along there :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.


P.S. : I see Tornado watches have been issued [at 1:55 AM EDT] for areas in Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi until 9 AM CDT. I expect this will be expanded or shifted east as the day goes on.

Gulf Coast Meso march

They look like Meso Convective Vortices. At the least they're Meso Convective Systems.

This MCS/MCV [below] entered the Gulf of Mexico after exiting the Texas coast Thursday April 29. It dissipated on April 3 around Louisiana / Alabama.

This image shows a MCS/MCV entering the Gulf today April 4 off the Texas coast, and one also exiting the Gulf off Florida's east coast which entered the Gulf south of Louisiana in the AM hours on April 4 2012.

Here's a cool movie showing them All...

Georgia / Alabama Potential Severe Storms Weds/Thurs April 4/5 2012

Biggest threats will be Straight line winds and hail. Small chance of a Tornado can't be ruled out. Threw that in as some data supports it.

At this point I'm not sure which model or sounding to trust. It seems the model madness through this past winter is carrying over into spring. While this may be, I do believe as mentioned there will be some potential for strong to severe storms on Thursday. Things may begin to fire as early as the early AM hours Thursday. Depending on early precipitation and cloud cover, this will determine if the storms continue through the day, and how strong some may be.

I'll have a better idea on the what, when and where tomorrow Wednesday April 4 2012.

Image below: Significant Tornado Parameter for 5 AM EDT Thursday Morning. The local Columbus GA. / Phenix City AL. area is at a 1, [small chance].

EF-1 Tornado Troy (Pike County Alabama) March 23 2012

Troy airport, pic from an airport employee March 23 2012; Could be a rain-wrapped tornado in the distance..

Here's the official report [storm survey] from the US National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama

Rating: EF-1
Estimated Maximum Wind: 90-100 mph
Injuries/Fatalities: None
Damage Path Length: 1.7 miles
Maximum Path Width: 700 yards
Approximate Start Point/Time: 31.8379/-86.0439 at 926 am
Approximate End Point/Time: 31.8547/-86.0230 at 933 am

We have confirmed that the damage in Troy (Pike County) on the morning of March 23rd was due to a short-lived EF-1 tornado. The tornado was viewed by the observer at the Troy Municipal Airport, and fortunately dissipated before impacting the terminal. Check out the latest survey information here.

Wet and Stormy Southeast Friday and Saturday March 23-24 2012

Showers & Storms around Today Thursday ...

[ Radar removed, no longer relevant ]

Based on what I see at this time [2:23 PM EDT 3/22/2012] this is looking more and more like a rain event for the area. Looking at the possibility of 1 inch maybe a little more at this time in the local area. There will be thunderstorms around in the afternoon hours Friday through Saturday morning as the front closes in and moves through the area. The biggest threat at this time appears to be gusty winds with any of the stronger storms that may develop, and the possibility of small hail.

If anything were to become severe in the local area, my thinking is it will be Friday early evening around or after 4 PM EDT during the warmest part of the day. This is not to say that embedded strong storms that may develop within the approaching line of convection before or after this time might go severe. However my thinking is this is not likely to happen given the time frame the front will be pushing through the area.
Enforcing my thinking are marginal at best instabilities. The highest CAPE at the time mentioned above is 709 j/kg, Shear approaching 30kts and Helicity at 74.

Most if not all severe potential should remain south of the Columbus Phenix City Area. To the West and East of the Columbus and Phenix City, severe storms should also remain below this line in Alabama and Georgia based on current analysis. AGAIN, This is not to say that any strong embedded storm that may develop within the approaching line of convection could go severe.

Here's the outlook for Friday 8 AM thru Saturday 8 AM

The local area is on the fringe of the Slight Risk area.

This one shows the local area in a 5% area of seeing severe storms

In the above graphics we do not see the progression of the system through the overnight hours. That being said, during the overnight early morning hours Saturday, the local area will likely be included in the slight risk area and the 15% area of seeing severe storms. However during the overnight hours the threat should remain LOW.


Here's the outlook for Saturday 8 AM thru Sunday 8 AM

The local area is on the fringe of the Slight Risk area.

This one shows the local area in a 5% area of seeing severe storms

Images provided by the Strom Prediction Center

Thunderstorms and Showers for the Southeast - Week of March 19 thru 24 2012

My thinking based on current material:

A slow moving cold front currently impacting areas of Texas north into Iowa will slowly move east through the week. Right now [ 11:12 AM EDT 3/19/2012 ] storms are beginning to fire along the front with the potential for severe weather including damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. Severe thunderstorm and tornado watches will likely be issued at some point this afternoon for areas in Texas and points north.

Current Map March 19

The low pressure responsible for this front will according to models become a closed upper level low. Until this happens it will continue to pull colder air from the north and warm air from the south, leading to an unstable air mass. Once the low closes off it will continue to draw warm moist air from the gulf of Mexico region. This warm moist air combined with daytime heating will then provide the opportunity for strong storms to continue developing over the next few days through Wednesday as the front ever so slowly moves east through Louisiana. There is the potential for some of these storms to become severe where damaging winds, hail and even a tornado can not be ruled out.

Wednesday March 21

By Thursday morning the cold front will be in or around Western Mississippi with the upper level low remaining back in Oklahoma. At this time there is still the potential for strong to severe storms but to a lesser degree from previous days. During daytime heating some of these storms will have the potential to turn severe where again damaging winds, hail and even a tornado can not be ruled out.

Thursday March 22

By Friday morning the cold front will be in or around western Alabama. The closed upper level low will by then have moved slightly east into the Missouri area. To the south in Alabama areas of showers with possible storms developing during daytime heating will be the rule. Some of the stronger storms may have the potential to become severe. As this is 4 days away it is unclear how the storm system will continue to evolve so we'll have to watch this.

Friday March 23

Farther to the north in areas of Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio things may be a little more interesting during this same time. While the cold from continues to trail from Indiana south through Alabama, a weak warm front will have continued to push north. Also of interest in an occluded front trailing back to the upper level low back in Missouri. This will create and area for potential strong to severe storms as the cold air overtakes the warm sector. Also of note in this area will be the different wind profiles or wind direction in which a quick spin up tornado cant be ruled out.

By Saturday morning the cold front will be pushing through Georgia, western areas of North and South Carolina continuing north through the Virginia's. The upper level low at this time will be positioned in or around Indiana or Ohio. By this time most of the energy will have been lost and things should be relatively quite from North Carolina southward. To the North in Virginia it may still be a little unsettled with strong thunderstorms still possible.

Saturday March 24

All of the above is provided things remain true to current modeling and thinking. I'll continue watching this system throughout the week and should things change will post an update.


Here's a look at the potential rainfall associated with this system beginning Today March 19 thru Saturday morning March 24.

Summertime Thunderstorms in the Spring

Not a whole lot going on in the local area at this time, which is a good thing. We'll have plenty of time for severe weather as spring is just getting underway and summer is around the corner.

The setup for this week is reminiscent of summer, bringing a chance of scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms this week during the warmest time of the day. Not everyone will see this and Nothing severe is expected, but stronger thunderstorms sometimes provide a little excitement in the way of gusty winds, lightning and sometimes small hail. Here is a snip of what I expected this week, from Wednesday March 7 posted on Facebook

Towards the beginning of next week we might hear a rumble of thunder thrown into the mix. At this time, 'NO SEVERE' weather is expected. I'll keep an eye on this should things change.

I'm still not expecting any severe weather this week, but as we all know, sometimes it pops up unexpectedly in this type of setup where we have warm temperatures and plenty of moisture / humidity to work with.

Here's a graphic from the National Weather Service Peachtree City GA. showing the best area for thunderstorm development in Georgia today. You can also expect this across the Chattahoochee River in Alabama as well.

Speaking of Alabama, here's a graphic for today via the National Weather Service Birmingham Al.