Georgia Drought Update - April 23 2012

As we begin to move into the Warmer Spring and Hotter Summer months, it's time once again to monitor the drought situation in Georgia and the south more closely.

Since my last drought update on February 2, the situation in Georgia has not improved. In fact, only 4.39 percent of the state is without drought at this time compared to 14.41 percent 2 months ago.

Due to lack of rainfall this winter we are seeing 'abnormally dry' conditions creep back into North Georgia quite early this year. In central and south Georgia drought conditions overall have not improved greatly, except in the southeast corner where a small area is now in 'severe drought' down from 'extreme'.

Here are some rainfall totals for select areas in Georgia from the National Weather Service Peachtree City GA.:

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
            LAST 365 DAYS    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA        32.93         49.76      -16.83         66%
ATHENS         30.14         46.39      -16.25         65%
COLUMBUS       38.39         46.78       -8.39         82%
MACON          28.66         45.72      -17.06         63%

Across the southeast and the rest of the nation we see some improvement in Texas north to Kansas, while Florida and the northeast remain dry.

The areas in Florida and the northeast this past weekend continuing today in the northeast have seen some much needed rains due to a Low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico. The LP moved over areas of the Florida Panhandle and up the east coast where it has joined with another low bringing rains and April snow to the northeast. How much drought relief in these areas is yet to be calculated.

Here is a graphic showing Percentage of Normal precipitation in the Southeast since the beginning of 2012 through April 19 2012. Notice the darker RED shaded areas, which have seen much below normal rainfall since the beginning of 2012.

Here is a graphic showing Departure from Normal Precipitation April 2011 through March 2012. Again, the darker shaded RED areas show area that have seen little rainfall. Some areas are 16 to 20 inches below normal for the lats 12 months.

If all this was not bad enough concerning drought in the higher impacted areas across the U.S., the seasonal drought outlook for April through June of 2012 paints a dry picture, where drought is to persist or intensify.

Concerning the drought situation in the southeast; the National Weather Service / Southeast River Forecast Center released and assessment on April 17 2012. Here's an excerpt of what was stated in the release. Needless to say, it's not looking good for the southeast....

National Weather Service
Southeast River Forecast Center
Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment - Drought
4:00 p.m. Tuesday, April 17, 2012

… Lack of rainfall during the month of March over much of the Southeast has helped to intensify the drought in parts of Alabama and South Carolina, and much of Georgia and Florida …

Typically each year the Southeast usually sees significant improvement in its water resource situation during the month of March. Climatologically, March can produce flooding as well as beneficial recharge to reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater. This has not been a typical year, and therefore, a variety of factors have led to the deterioration of water resource conditions.

Looking Ahead

The forecast for the May, June, and July time frame looks similar to what the Southeast is experiencing now. With no large-scale weather pattern, there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast. With initial conditions being so dire right now, below-normal precipitation would produce significant problems across many of the areas already dealing with drought conditions, causing reservoirs to fall more quickly than in the past. Even normal rainfall will not help conditions significantly. Above-normal rainfall will be needed to improve conditions.

You can read the whole report with graphics here. This is a PDF - http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/USNWS/2012/04/17/file_attachments/106813/HVA_apr1612.pdf

Georgia Drought Update - Lake Levels - November 4 2011

After a very wet September around the Cataula area [ 8.33 inches ] , October came to an end being very dry [ 1.36 inches ]. Columbus officially had 3.56 inches in September and 0.72 inches in October. As of October 27 2011, Columbus has a deficit of -9.59 inches of precipitation. The normal amounts of precipitation for Columbus in September is 3.06 inches, and 2.58 inches for October. For September and October, Columbus is running a deficit of -1.36 inches. The normal amount for rain in November is 2.58 inches. We'll see how we fare.

One benefit over the past couple of months has been the cooler fall temperatures, less sun exposure due to the changing of the season, which lead to less moisture being evaporated form the ground. If Columbus had experienced the same conditions in the middle of summer [ I'm thinking we did this year ] the situation wouldn't be as good as it is.

As you can see in the image below much of the state is still enduring an 'Extreme Drought'. There was some improvement during the time frame October 11 to November 1 2011.

As mentioned above, The Columbus area in general is still 9.59 inches in the hole. Here is a graphic showing additional precipitation needed to bring conditions to near normal in the US.

You can expect drought conditions to continue through winter.

On a side note:

One area of focus in my past drought reports over the years was Lake Levels in Georgia. While I to this date can not find a source for water levels at Lake Oliver, I do know where to acquire most of Georgia's lake levels. I had in the past kept up with this due to most of the lake above Columbus supply our water for everyday use. One thing that has been on my mind lately is, How will drought play into Columbus' New Whitewater Adventure ? Surely those communities upstream will not sacrifice their water just so some folks can raft down the Hooch, during drought conditions. I know I wouldn't !! SO how does the city of Columbus intend to keep the flow going when upstream they will not release water during drought ?? I have no idea what amount of water flow were speaking of, but when lake levels are down 12 feet, I don't think there will be continued adequate water release to support white water rafting. I could be wrong as money has a strange way of changing things. I hope for the sake of enough water to supply the local community with clean drinking and bathing water during drought, I'm wrong.

In a post form January 2009, Lake Lanier which supplies much of Atlanta with water, was down 20 feet from full pool. Consequently many of the lakes south of Lanier also flirted with record low levels due to no water be released form Lanier, including local lakes West Point, Harding, Goat Rock and even Oliver.

Here's a current picture of low water level at Lake Lanier. More can be viewed here from the drought of 2008.

Image Credit: Vino Wong, vwong@ajc.com The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Here are the current lake levels from around the state of Georgia as of 841 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2011 :

As you can see above, Lake Lanier is currently down over 11 feet closing in on 12 feet down. West Point Lake is down Just over 12 feet. Lake Harding is over full pool of 520 at 520'.22, and Goat Rock is also above full pool of 400 at 401'.39.

And here are the projected water levels of select lakes through December 2 2011 as of 11/1/2011 :

So I wonder in the back of my mind how drought will impact Columbus' White Water Adventure - LINK to official Columbus Convention and Visitors Bureau Raft Columbus GA., "The longest urban whitewater course in the world." The Rush starts in 21 Months 27 Days 10 Hours, as of this post.

Here's an excerpt from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution about Lake Lanier Tuesday, November 1, 2011, hit the link below for full article.

With Lanier water level dropping, hazard buoys are put in place

Lake Lanier continues to drop at a rate of about a foot a week as the Army Corps of Engineers steps up water releases to keep stream levels up in a drought.

As of Tuesday the lake, Atlanta's getaway body of water located about 40 miles north of downtown, was down 12 feet from the last time it was at full pool in May.

It’s predicted the level will drop another 2 feet by the end of the month, so much so that the annual Lanier Parade of Lights -- where boats take to the water at night in early December in a flotilla with Christmas lights -- has been canceled.