Georgia Drought Update: Getting Worse - July 30 2012

In my last drought update - Georgia Drought Update: No Improvement - July 12 2012 the title said it all, 'No Improvement'. That being said, this months update should come as no surprise, the drought in Georgia is getting worse.

While many areas in Georgia have seen afternoon and evening summer type pulse showers and thunderstorms, they have done little to overcome the recent heat and soil moisture evaporation. Even here in Cataula where I'm running above average in precipitation for the month of July, the creek on the back 40 remains dry. At my location in Cataula, GA. I've received 50.63 inches in the last 365 days, And 6.79 inches of rain for July 2012 as of July 29^th, both above average for my area.

Here are the stats from around the state.. Columbus represents my area as I am Just north.

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
            LAST 365 DAYS    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA        34.52         49.71      -15.19         69%
ATHENS         35.68         46.35      -10.67         77%
COLUMBUS       38.29         46.77       -8.48         82%
MACON          32.01         45.68      -13.67         70%

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
115 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

LONG TERM DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND EXPANDS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.

THE SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND EXPANDS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN A NEUTRAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SUMMER SEASON. THE DROUGHT IMPACTS HAVE GRADUALLY WORSEN IN AREAS OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. SOME VEGETATION HAS GONE DORMANT DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND THE INCREASE IN EVAPORATION RATES. MOST SMALL LAKE...POND...STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TO SOME RECORD LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A FEW DAYS OF RAIN BROUGHT SOME RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OCCURRED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA DURING THE PAST 14 DAYS. THE DRIEST AREA WITH LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN WAS FROM MACON TO SPARTA TO LYONS TO ABBEVILLE.

THE RAINFALL DEFICITS AND SOIL MOISTURE IMPROVED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2 INCHES OR MORE DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREA INCREASED TO THE NORTH. THE AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR ROME THROUGH CANTON AND GAINESVILLE TO TOCCOA.

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Here's a look at the drought in Georgia. July 10 on the left which was the focus of my last drought report [ linked above ] and the current drought report in Georgia as of July 24 2012. As you can see, drought conditions in Georgia have worsened since the last report as explained in the above report.

While were on Georgia drought, here are the current Lake levels for some of the more important lakes in Georgia as of 942 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

LAKE        SUMMER POOL  CURRENT LEVEL    DEPARTURE
                                           IN FEET
ALLATOONA       840          836.96         -3.04
CARTERS        1074         1073.79         -0.21
HARTWELL        660          649.68        -10.32
LANIER         1071         1063.27         -7.73
THURMOND        330          319.65        -10.35
WEST POINT      635          628.59         -6.41

Here are the forecast Lake levels for the next 4 weeks. All below summer full pool.

Here's another image showing current drought conditions in Georgia as of July 24 2012.

Here are drought conditions across the Southeast. Current on the right.

Here's a look at drought severity across the entire United States as of July 24 2012 on the right and 2 weeks ago in the left. Only 19.92 percent of the country is drought free.

I'm still waiting on the tropics to become active again. While the Hurricane season saw an early start with named storms in both May and June, it looks like July 2012 will go by without a named storm for the first time since 2009. We can still hope a tropical system will bring drought relief in August to Georgia and other areas of the southeast.

For all information Current to 2007 on Drought in Georgia, See The Drought Files.

Georgia Drought Update - May 12 2012

Since my last Drought report May 3 2012, not much has changed in Georgia. The only change was an area in West Central Georgia, which saw adequate rainfall amounts to move them from Severe drought to Moderate drought conditions.

Here's the current drought map showing this with the area highlighted in Green:

Here's a map showing rainfall amounts for the past 14 days for the southeast. You can clearly see the area in west central Georgia that received higher rainfall amounts shaded in Green.

While light rain is currently falling in west Georgia [ 8:36 AM EDT 5/12/2012 ], and more is expected in the coming days, areas in Central and South Georgia that need it most are looking like they will be left out of receiving the heavier amounts.
Here's a map showing expected rainfall amounts for the next 5 days.

At the current time it's looking more likely once again the only way to completely wipe out drought conditions in Georgia and much of the southeast will be some type of land falling tropical system. Even then it looks like it would take 2 or more to accomplish this as for much of the southeast, most areas need 18 or more inches of rain, as shown is this map below. If this were to occur in a short time, flooding would be and issue.

Many of the lakes and rivers are seeing impacts from the ongoing drought in Georgia, even at this early time of the year. Here's a look at lake levels for some of the larger lakes in Georgia, most below full pool and expected to continue falling for the foreseeable future.

LAKE        SUMMER POOL  CURRENT LEVEL    DEPARTURE
                                           IN FEET
ALLATOONA       840          840.92         +0.92
CARTERS        1074         1072.33         -1.67
HARTWELL        660          651.97         -8.03
LANIER         1071         1064.77         -6.23
THURMOND        330          321.79         -8.21
WEST POINT      635          629.89         -5.11

Here's the latest Drought Information Statement form the National Weather Service in Peachtree City Georgia. Not looking good ....

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1135 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2012

...LONG TERM DROUGHT INTENSIFIES OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA...

THE SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER ALL OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND EXPAND INTO NORTH GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING INTO A NEUTRAL WEATHER PATTERN AND THE SUMMER SEASON. THE DROUGHT IMPACTS WILL WORSEN AS VEGETATION DRAWS MORE MOISTURE AND EVAPORATION RATES INCREASE. MOST SMALL LAKE...POND ...STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TO SOME RECORD LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

Here's the current drought situation for the entire U.S.

Information and Graphics above obtained from various NOAA / NWS websites listed below.

US Drought monitor

High Plains Regional Climate Center

NWS Peachtree City Georgia

NOAA National Climatic Data Center

NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Georgia Drought Update - April 23 2012

As we begin to move into the Warmer Spring and Hotter Summer months, it's time once again to monitor the drought situation in Georgia and the south more closely.

Since my last drought update on February 2, the situation in Georgia has not improved. In fact, only 4.39 percent of the state is without drought at this time compared to 14.41 percent 2 months ago.

Due to lack of rainfall this winter we are seeing 'abnormally dry' conditions creep back into North Georgia quite early this year. In central and south Georgia drought conditions overall have not improved greatly, except in the southeast corner where a small area is now in 'severe drought' down from 'extreme'.

Here are some rainfall totals for select areas in Georgia from the National Weather Service Peachtree City GA.:

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
            LAST 365 DAYS    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA        32.93         49.76      -16.83         66%
ATHENS         30.14         46.39      -16.25         65%
COLUMBUS       38.39         46.78       -8.39         82%
MACON          28.66         45.72      -17.06         63%

Across the southeast and the rest of the nation we see some improvement in Texas north to Kansas, while Florida and the northeast remain dry.

The areas in Florida and the northeast this past weekend continuing today in the northeast have seen some much needed rains due to a Low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico. The LP moved over areas of the Florida Panhandle and up the east coast where it has joined with another low bringing rains and April snow to the northeast. How much drought relief in these areas is yet to be calculated.

Here is a graphic showing Percentage of Normal precipitation in the Southeast since the beginning of 2012 through April 19 2012. Notice the darker RED shaded areas, which have seen much below normal rainfall since the beginning of 2012.

Here is a graphic showing Departure from Normal Precipitation April 2011 through March 2012. Again, the darker shaded RED areas show area that have seen little rainfall. Some areas are 16 to 20 inches below normal for the lats 12 months.

If all this was not bad enough concerning drought in the higher impacted areas across the U.S., the seasonal drought outlook for April through June of 2012 paints a dry picture, where drought is to persist or intensify.

Concerning the drought situation in the southeast; the National Weather Service / Southeast River Forecast Center released and assessment on April 17 2012. Here's an excerpt of what was stated in the release. Needless to say, it's not looking good for the southeast....

National Weather Service
Southeast River Forecast Center
Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment - Drought
4:00 p.m. Tuesday, April 17, 2012

… Lack of rainfall during the month of March over much of the Southeast has helped to intensify the drought in parts of Alabama and South Carolina, and much of Georgia and Florida …

Typically each year the Southeast usually sees significant improvement in its water resource situation during the month of March. Climatologically, March can produce flooding as well as beneficial recharge to reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater. This has not been a typical year, and therefore, a variety of factors have led to the deterioration of water resource conditions.

Looking Ahead

The forecast for the May, June, and July time frame looks similar to what the Southeast is experiencing now. With no large-scale weather pattern, there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast. With initial conditions being so dire right now, below-normal precipitation would produce significant problems across many of the areas already dealing with drought conditions, causing reservoirs to fall more quickly than in the past. Even normal rainfall will not help conditions significantly. Above-normal rainfall will be needed to improve conditions.

You can read the whole report with graphics here. This is a PDF - http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/USNWS/2012/04/17/file_attachments/106813/HVA_apr1612.pdf

Georgia Drought Update - Lake Levels - November 4 2011

After a very wet September around the Cataula area [ 8.33 inches ] , October came to an end being very dry [ 1.36 inches ]. Columbus officially had 3.56 inches in September and 0.72 inches in October. As of October 27 2011, Columbus has a deficit of -9.59 inches of precipitation. The normal amounts of precipitation for Columbus in September is 3.06 inches, and 2.58 inches for October. For September and October, Columbus is running a deficit of -1.36 inches. The normal amount for rain in November is 2.58 inches. We'll see how we fare.

One benefit over the past couple of months has been the cooler fall temperatures, less sun exposure due to the changing of the season, which lead to less moisture being evaporated form the ground. If Columbus had experienced the same conditions in the middle of summer [ I'm thinking we did this year ] the situation wouldn't be as good as it is.

As you can see in the image below much of the state is still enduring an 'Extreme Drought'. There was some improvement during the time frame October 11 to November 1 2011.

As mentioned above, The Columbus area in general is still 9.59 inches in the hole. Here is a graphic showing additional precipitation needed to bring conditions to near normal in the US.

You can expect drought conditions to continue through winter.

On a side note:

One area of focus in my past drought reports over the years was Lake Levels in Georgia. While I to this date can not find a source for water levels at Lake Oliver, I do know where to acquire most of Georgia's lake levels. I had in the past kept up with this due to most of the lake above Columbus supply our water for everyday use. One thing that has been on my mind lately is, How will drought play into Columbus' New Whitewater Adventure ? Surely those communities upstream will not sacrifice their water just so some folks can raft down the Hooch, during drought conditions. I know I wouldn't !! SO how does the city of Columbus intend to keep the flow going when upstream they will not release water during drought ?? I have no idea what amount of water flow were speaking of, but when lake levels are down 12 feet, I don't think there will be continued adequate water release to support white water rafting. I could be wrong as money has a strange way of changing things. I hope for the sake of enough water to supply the local community with clean drinking and bathing water during drought, I'm wrong.

In a post form January 2009, Lake Lanier which supplies much of Atlanta with water, was down 20 feet from full pool. Consequently many of the lakes south of Lanier also flirted with record low levels due to no water be released form Lanier, including local lakes West Point, Harding, Goat Rock and even Oliver.

Here's a current picture of low water level at Lake Lanier. More can be viewed here from the drought of 2008.

Image Credit: Vino Wong, vwong@ajc.com The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Here are the current lake levels from around the state of Georgia as of 841 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2011 :

As you can see above, Lake Lanier is currently down over 11 feet closing in on 12 feet down. West Point Lake is down Just over 12 feet. Lake Harding is over full pool of 520 at 520'.22, and Goat Rock is also above full pool of 400 at 401'.39.

And here are the projected water levels of select lakes through December 2 2011 as of 11/1/2011 :

So I wonder in the back of my mind how drought will impact Columbus' White Water Adventure - LINK to official Columbus Convention and Visitors Bureau Raft Columbus GA., "The longest urban whitewater course in the world." The Rush starts in 21 Months 27 Days 10 Hours, as of this post.

Here's an excerpt from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution about Lake Lanier Tuesday, November 1, 2011, hit the link below for full article.

With Lanier water level dropping, hazard buoys are put in place

Lake Lanier continues to drop at a rate of about a foot a week as the Army Corps of Engineers steps up water releases to keep stream levels up in a drought.

As of Tuesday the lake, Atlanta's getaway body of water located about 40 miles north of downtown, was down 12 feet from the last time it was at full pool in May.

It’s predicted the level will drop another 2 feet by the end of the month, so much so that the annual Lanier Parade of Lights -- where boats take to the water at night in early December in a flotilla with Christmas lights -- has been canceled.