Rain Sleet and Snow coming to Alabama and Georgia

A chance for wintery weather in the deep south will be coming in Thursday night into Friday morning. Get your cameras ready haha.

Best area for accumulation will be in the norther areas of Alabama and Georgia. There is likely to be no accumulation except on elevated and grassy areas in the central areas of both states as surface temperatures will be to warm.

In areas it will begin as a rain sleet mix and may change to snow briefly. In others areas it may begin as a sleet snow mix and change to all snow. Best time of this, from west to east will be between 3 AM and 10 Am Friday morning.

Georgia Drought Update - Huge Improvement - February 28 2013 #gawx

Heavy rains during February some which were record breaking, have wiped out 'extreme drought conditions' in Georgia and the Southeast. However, Pockets of 'Severe drought' remain in areas of Central and East Georgia extending into Northeast Florida. So even though the southeast had some good rain, drought still persists, and it won't take long if dry conditions move in for drought conditions to increase once again throughout the area.

Some areas of Georgia saw record breaking rainfall amounts. One such area was Columbus Georgia where they saw 13.51 inches of precipitation in February, breaking the record of 9.41 inches for the same period. The 'all time monthly precipitation record' of 13.62 inches in December of 2009 still stands.

Here at my location, my February rainfall total is 13.29 inches. Here are some other Precipitation Totals for February across Georgia

Albany   -   8.77 inches
Athens   -   7.66 inches
Atlanta  -   9.02 inches
Augusta  -   9.40 inches
Columbus -  13.51 inches
Macon    -  13.75 inches
Savannah -   9.75 inches
Valdosta -   5.39 inches

Georgia / Southeast drought January 1 thru February 26 2013




February Rainfall thru Feb. 26 2013

Heavy Rain / Flooding Issues for Georgia and Alabama #gawx #alwx

Rain moves back in Thursday Night / Friday Morning. There is the possibility by Late Friday evening .. thundershowers could be in the area but at this time it looks like mainly a rain event. On Monday there is an outside possibility conditions could come together for some stronger thunderstorms in the area. This is something that will need to be watched.

The bigger threat at this time will be heavy rain expected Friday through Tuesday, with flooding issues.

The first round expected on Friday through Saturday will likely bring rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches in North Georgia and 3 to 4 inches in central Georgia and Alabama, with higher amounts possible. Sunday looks like we'll have a short break with the next round of rain coming in on Monday through Tuesday, where rainfall amounts of an additional 2 inches could be in store. Total rainfall amounts for the entire period range from 1 to 3 inches over North Georgia / Alabama and 4 to 6 inches over Central and Southern Georgia / Alabama .




Flooding issues .... With heavy rains in Georgia and Alabama the past 2 weeks between 2 and 8 inches, the ground remains moist to wet in areas. This will not allow rainfall in the coming days to be absorbed quickly. This will cause extra runoff into low lying areas, creeks and rivers and cause them to rise at a quicker rate than normal. Flash Flooding will be likely in many areas including Roads.




Rivers and creeks are currently running higher than normal due to previous rainfall and widespread minor flooding is likely, with isolated significant flooding possible. This is something that needs to be monitored in the coming days.

597 US Counties Declared Disaster Areas Due to Drought

usda.gov

WASHINGTON, Jan. 9, 2013—Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack today designated 597 counties in 14 states as primary natural disaster areas due to drought and heat, making all qualified farm operators in the areas eligible for low-interest emergency loans. These are the first disaster designations made by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2013.

The 597 counties have shown a drought intensity value of at least D2 (Drought Severe) for eight consecutive weeks based on U.S. Drought Monitor measurements, providing for an automatic designation.

The 597 primary counties designated as disaster areas today correspond to the following states: Alabama, 14; Arkansas, 47; Arizona, 4; Colorado, 30; Georgia, 92; Hawaii, 2; Kansas, 88; Oklahoma, 76; Missouri, 31; New Mexico, 19; Nevada, 9; South Carolina, 11; Texas, 157; and Utah, 17. For more information about the specific state designations, visit the Farm Service Agency's disaster designations page.

Alabama counties declared Disaster Areas Due to Drought are:

Bullock	Cleburne	Henry	Montgomery
Chambers	Coosa	Lee	Randolph
Clay	Elmore	Macon	Russell
Talladega	Tallapoosa

Georgia counties declared Disaster Areas Due to Drought are:

Baker	Dougherty	Laurens	Randolph
Baldwin	Douglas	Lee	Richmond
Bartow	Early	Lincoln	Rockdale
Bibb	Elbert	Lumpkin	Schley
Bleckley	Fannin	McDuffie	Spalding
Burke	Fayette	Macon	Stewart
Butts	Forsyth	Marion	Sumter
Calhoun	Fulton	Meriwether	Talbot
Carroll	Gilmer	Mitchell	Taliaferro
Chattahoochee	Glascock	Monroe	Taylor
Cherokee	Grady	Morgan	Terrell
Clay	Greene	Muscogee	Thomas
Clayton	Hancock	Newton	Troup
Cobb	Haralson	Oconee	Twiggs
Columbia	Harris	Oglethorpe	Union
Coweta	Heard	Paulding	Upson
Crawford	Henry	Peach	Walton
Crisp	Houston	Pickens	Warren
Dawson	Jasper	Pike	Washington
Decatur	Jefferson	Polk	Webster
De Kalb	Johnson	Pulaski	Wilcox
Dodge	Jones	Putnam	Wilkes
Dooly	Lama	Quitman	Wilkinson

[PDF] Drought Disaster Designations Map

[PDF] List of Designated Drought Disaster Counties

Late week system - Severe Weather undetermined Georgia / Alabama

Posted 3:17 PM EST 1/6/2013

Next system looks to come in Thursday and Friday but should see some rain showers before and after. Weather models continue to disagree on timing and strength of system for the local area but as mentioned, at a minimum we should have some thunder in the area.

The GFS is faster with the system and takes it quicker to the north along with the energy associated with it, while the ECMWF is slower and farther south bringing it into the area on Friday.

Still undetermined at this time if there will be any severe weather with this in our area, but will go ahead and 'mention again' the possibility of 'isolated severe' due to the environment associated with this system.

I'll keep watching this and will post again when I know more and closer to weeks end.

Follow @Cataulagawx

Georgia Drought Update - Slight Improvement - January 3 2013

In past weeks a Northeasterly fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has brought much needed rains to the south and southeast, where ripples / shortwaves in the southern jet stream have ejected northward every 3 to 4 days. At this time, the pattern continues with another round of rain this morning in southern areas of both Georgia and Alabama.

Since my last drought report on November 21 2012, some improvement was seen. The main areas to see improvement were in West Central Georgia where Exceptional [D-4] Drought was eliminated and Severe [D2] Drought and D4 pulled back in the vicinity of Athens, Georgia. While improvements where seen, the drought in Georgia remains persistent.

Here's a graphic showing drought conditions in November 2012 on the left and current conditions on the right.

The Drought outlook for the Southeast region of the United States for January through March shows improvement. At this time I agree with this assessment based on time of year. Late fall through Winter is generally the wet season in the southeast and with lower temperatures combined with lower sun and shorter days, is a time for regeneration of soil moisture.

While the outlook is encouraging, the past year [2012] many areas in Georgia ended with a deficit in rainfall. As of December 27 2012, Atlanta saw a deficit of 12.80 inches, Athens 9.73 inches, Columbus 11.48 inches and Macon 13.80 inches.
Here's the current data showing how much rain is needed to end drought conditions across the United States in 3 months. *Note - The end of a drought is defined by a PHDI value of -0.5. Drought amelioration is achieved when a PHDI value of -2.0 is reached.

Temperatures and Precipitation outlooks for the next 6 through 14 days show probabilities of 'both' being 'above average for the southeast US. You can see this HERE

My next Drought post will be in February but I will be Tweeting weekly updates so follow me there .. Follow @Cataulagawx

Southeast Severe Weather December 16 2012 - Outlook for severe 12-19 / 12-20-12

Rain / Storms still on track. As mentioned yesterday - "On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday." Main threat still continues to be Damaging winds with stronger storms should they develop. However, due to the setup a LOW threat of a tornado is still present. Not everyone will see severe weather or a tornado. [ Note: Another round of storms expected around Wednesday / Thursday - See below graphic ]

Here's what the SPC has outlined for today into Monday Morning at this time...

And Monday morning thru Tuesday Morning at this time...

Here's the areas being watched at this time [Sunday afternoon] for possible severe weather on Wednesday Day 4 and Thursday Day 5. At this time the setup is looking interesting and if models remain consistent severe storms should develop in or around these areas.

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Possibility of Southeast Severe Weather Saturday thru Monday - December 15 2012

It seems our Second Severe Season has arrived albeit a bit late. Normally the fall severe weather begins in Mid to late November in the southeast. November this year was quite with the exception of a potential severe weather event in the southeast that never materialized during the Nov. 11^th thru 13^th time frame. If you were around this past week you may recall the Storms and Tornadoes in the Southeast on December 10 2012. on with the show ...

This coming bout of potential Severe weather will begin Late Saturday in the ARK-LA-MISS area shifting east with time into Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida. There remains uncertainty with the system as to timing and how strong storms may become due to how strong the upper level low pressure expected to develop in the northern tiers of this region becomes. The stronger the ULL, the more moisture it will pull north from the Gulf of Mexico into an already somewhat unstable air mass closer to the coast and extending northward. Regardless, am expecting some strong storms with isolated severe at this time throughout the region beginning today thru Monday again spreading west to east. Right now [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] confidence is somewhat LOW to the severe side based on how much cloud cover and rain occurs ahead of the frontal system in the warm sector.

Threats with this system will be in the form of Isolated strong to severe storms with the potential for a few Tornadoes with stronger storms possible. While the threat of tornadoes looks low at this time, a couple can't be entirely ruled out due to increasing shear layer to layer which may became surface based over time supporting Bowing Line areas capable of Damaging Straight Line winds and Isolated Supercells which may spawn a Tornado. There is also a threat of Flash Flooding in areas with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. As always .. not everyone will experience severe storms.

Today through Tomorrow morning the main threat will be the possibility of Damaging winds associated with strong thunderstorms that may develop generally in the afternoon and evening hours continuing through the overnight. ... On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday. On Sunday the Storm Prediction Center at this time [4:48 AM 12/15/2012] has an area highlighted for an elevated risk for strong to severe storms. We'll see how this area looks later today for possible increase in severity or even a decrease. For now here is what they have for Sunday Morning through Monday Morning. [click image to embiggen]

Here's the anticipated Rain Amounts Today through Tuesday Morning

Don't forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Possible Severe Storms Monday December 10 2012

Good morning, Here's the weather outlook for Alabama and Georgia today.

Rain will be moving in today with Thunderstorms in the afternoon through the evening. There is still the possibility some of the storms could be severe. Not everyone will see severe weather. There is also a slim chance one of these strong storms could spin up a brief tornado, but the chances of that are very LOW. This is due to adequate wind shear in the upper levels. Outside of a possible tornado, the biggest threat at this time will be damaging winds with stronger thunderstorms. Not everyone will see this.

Check the Radar Page for current scans.

Rain could also be heavy at times, but I'm not anticipating a drought buster by any means. Rainfall amounts should be under a half inch. Cooler air moves in during and behind the rain with highs in the 50's to about Thursday, then a slight warm up before the next system arrives this coming weekend.

The next outlook from the Storm Prediction Center will be released this morning at 8 AM EST. I'll try and update you sometime this afternoon. ~ Ed Quinn

No Improvement - Georgia Drought Update - November 21 2012

Don't let the cooler weather fool you. Lack of rain in Georgia increases drought coverage and intensity.

Since my last Drought Update November 2 2012 Georgia has remained dry. Here at the homestead in Cataula, GA. I've recorded 0.68 inches of rain since November 1^st to date. Since October 1^st I have recorded 1.98 inches of rain to date. On October 30^th 2012 80.77% of Georgia was experiencing some form of drought. As of November 20^th 2012 drought coverage has spread and now 93.07% of Georgia is experiencing drought conditions. Areas of Georgia currently without drought are the Northwest and Southeast corners. Middle and West Central Georgia are the hardest hit with drought and currently experiencing 'Extreme to Exceptional' drought conditions.

Current Drought conditions on right compared to October 30^th on left.

Rainfall in Georgia for the last 30 days as of November 21 2012.

Percent of normal rainfall year to November 20 2012

Rainfall needed to bring conditions back to normal [no drought]. Georgia needs anywhere from a Trace upward to 12 inches.

CLIMATE IMPACTS - Georgia

GENERALLY 10 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL PREVAILED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE PAST 14 DAYS.

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
            LAST 365 DAYS    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA        37.22         49.73      -12.51         75%
ATHENS         37.22         46.36       -9.14         80%
COLUMBUS       37.54         46.77       -9.23         80%
MACON          32.89         45.72      -12.83         72%

RESERVOIRS/STREAM LEVELS - Georgia as of Nov. 21

CURRENT LAKE LEVELS AT THE USACE PROJECTS WERE MAINLY FROM 1 TO 12 FEET BELOW SEASONAL POOL LEVELS. ALL OF THE LAKE LEVELS ARE PROJECTED TO SLOWLY FALL DURING THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS.

LAKE       SEASONAL POOL  CURRENT LEVEL   DEPARTURE
                                           IN FEET

ALLATOONA       829          828.52         -0.48
CARTERS        1072         1070.13         -1.87
HARTWELL        657          645.83        -11.17
LANIER         1071         1059.28        -11.72
THURMOND        328          315.09        -12.91
WEST POINT      633          622.98        -10.02

U.S. Drought outlook November 15 2012 thru February 28 2013

Sources:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/monitor.html

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=dgt&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1


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Nor'easter will be No Sandy - November 4 2012

The Nor'easter expected to impact areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this week will be No Sandy. However due to earlier damage caused by Hurricane Sandy in these areas this storm will have a greater impact.

With that said, we can sill expect strong to gusty winds in areas from 40 to 50 mph which will hamper repair of downed power lines. Winds will also be capable of bringing down tress and branches already weakened from Sandy.

'Minor to Moderate coastal flooding' with the high tide around Midday Wednesday looking like the best time for storm surge. With many area beaches and coastal property already having erosion, it is likely this storm will add to this.

'Rain amounts' of up to 4 inches can be expected at this time in and around the areas closer to the coast with lesser amounts inland. Due to flooded areas which at this time have not receded any extra water will cause them to rise, and may also cause areas to flood again.

'Snow will also be a concern' on the backside of the counter clockwise flow around the storm. Areas likely to see snow at this time are inland in PA, NJ and NY maybe even as far south as VA; these areas 'could' see 1 to 4 inches maybe more. I think the New England area 'could' see 8 to 15 inches depending on storm path. Uncertainty remains at this time in this as we are still days away form this storm impacting the northeast and the final path is unknown, whether it will hug the coast or be farther away.


Projected Path of Nor'easter Tuesday November 6 thru Friday November 9 2012

Forecast Rain amounts Nov 4 thru Nov 9

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Drought Update: Current and Outlook for Georgia, Southeast, United States - November 2 2012

Drought in Georgia still persists and gained ground during the dry month of October. While drought has yet to relinquish it's hold on areas of North and Central Georgia, it's slowly creeping back into areas of south Georgia. During this time of year folks don't think much about drought conditions as the lush green vegetation is slowly turning brown and going dormant across the state as fall and winter moves in.

The difference a month makes since my last drought update October 6 2012

Drought still remains in Georgia and is gradually once again becoming worse due to lack of rain as area lakes and streams mainly in central Georgia continue to drop and some are at record lows during this time of year.

Rainfall in Georgia and the United States over the last 30 days

CLIMATE IMPACTS - Georgia

GENERALLY ZERO TO 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL PREVAILED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE PAST 14 DAYS.

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
            LAST 365 DAYS    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA        36.35         49.76      -13.41         73%
ATHENS         37.30         46.38       -9.08         80%
COLUMBUS       37.20         46.81       -9.61         79%
MACON          32.33         45.74      -13.41         71%
-------------------------------------------------------------------

RESERVOIRS/STREAM LEVELS - Georgia

CURRENT LAKE LEVELS AT THE USACE PROJECTS WERE MAINLY FROM 2 TO 13 FEET BELOW SEASONAL POOL LEVELS. ALL OF THE LAKE LEVELS ARE PROJECTED TO SLOWLY FALL DURING THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS.

LAKE       SEASONAL POOL  CURRENT LEVEL   DEPARTURE
                                           IN FEET

ALLATOONA       832          830.15         -1.85
CARTERS        1073         1071.03         -1.97
HARTWELL        658          645.90        -12.10
LANIER         1071         1061.55         -9.45
THURMOND        329          316.13        -12.87
WEST POINT      634          623.16        -10.84

AVERAGE STREAM LEVELS FOR THE PAST 7 DAYS RANGED FROM AS LOW AS 1 PERCENT ON MUCH OF THE FLINT...OCMULGEE AND OCONEE RIVERS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...TO AS HIGH AS 65 PERCENT ON THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER IN ATLANTA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL OR LACK THEREOF.

PLEASE NOTE THAT CREEKS AND SMALLER RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY DUE TO RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN IF IT OCCURS.



Here's the current drought conditions across the southeast US October 2 thru 30 2012.

Here's the current drought conditions across the United States October 2 thru 30 2012.

Here's the Seasonal Drought Outlook November 1 2012 thru January 31 2013

Here's the Outlook for November Rain and Temperatures as well as the three month outlook fro rain and temperature.

Sources:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/monitor.html

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=dgt&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1


Follow @Cataulagawx

Tropical Storm #Sandy .. What's in a name ?

Don't focus on what Sandy will be called in days ahead. Whether a Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Post tropical or extra tropical. She's going to cause problems for many regardless of her name and characteristics.

Depending on the exact track Sandy takes along the east coast, 'at this time' areas in North Carolina Today and spreading northward along the Mid Atlantic coast Tonight through Monday can expect rainfall of 1-4 inches with higher totals approaching 8 inches possible in some areas closer to the coast. Minor coastal flooding is expected in low lying areas with some beach erosion due to high surf up to 6 or 7 feet and Gusty winds between 30-40 mph with gusts approaching 60-70 mph possible. Flooding and loss of electricity is also possible inland.

At this time here's what you can expect 'before and during landfall' and 'inland after landfall' .. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm force winds for many hours possibly longer. Heavy rains of 8 to 12 inches along the coast and inland causing flooding issues for many. Coastal flooding and erosion for hours due to hurricane/tropical storm force winds and 'tidal surge'. Power outages widespread, Trees down, Roads closed due to debris / flooding and wash out, Airports and other transportation halted. Basic services shut down for days, a week or longer in some areas. To add to all that as if that's not enough, major snowfall measured in 'Feet' is likely for some areas west of the system in areas of Western Virginia, West Virginia, Southwest Pennsylvania. In surrounding areas of Ohio, Northeast Kentucky back into Indiana snowfall is likely as well as to the north of the system in areas of Southern New York State, East and Northeastern areas of Pennsylvania. There may be some icing issues too.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems, Advisories and Warnings    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available


Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information at Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone as this storm unfolds. You can head over to Foot's Forecast [Website] for more insight and see what goes into understanding a storm like this.

Follow @Cataulagawx

Georgia Drought Update: Long Term Drought Improves - October 6 2012

Recent rains during the last 14 days brought much needed drought relief for areas in North and Central Georgia. While improvement is seen, drought continues into fall for many in central, west central and southwest Georgia. Northern and southern areas of Georgia including the southeast are now drought free.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches fell across areas of North, Central and West Central Georgia in the past 14 days, while amounts of 5 to 8 inches were observed in North Central and Central Georgia where minor flooding occurred. East Central Georgia saw rainfall amounts around a ½ inch to 1½ inches.

The seasonal drought outlook for Georgia hints at 'some improvement in the coming months. This will mainly be due to lower temperatures and shorter days. However October is the dry month for Georgia. Here's the current drought conditions across the US and the seasonal outlook ..

One aspect of current drought across the US I would like to bring attention to is the drought in the Northern and Central Plains. While this area has without a doubt experienced extensive drought conditions this summer, Georgia has endured drought conditions all year. I only point this out because most large weather and news companies seem to forget about us down here in the south.

Here is an 'animated image' showing drought conditions across the entire US from January 31 2012 through September 25 2012. Notice Georgia has as mentioned endured drought since the beginning of 2012 and if you check my drought archives, you'll see including multiple years of drought.

We'll see how things go during fall and winter here in the Georgia as we really missed out once again on wiping drought out with anything tropical.

Severe Weather Threat Georgia, Alabama, Florida Panhandle on Monday 10/01/2012

Already today [ Sunday 9/30/12 ] there have been 'isolated tornadoes' in Mississippi with damage reported and the threat may continue to increase through this evening for areas in Southeast Louisiana, Southern and Central Mississippi and West Central / Southwest Alabama. Likely the threat of strong storms will continue through the overnight into Monday morning as well.

Looks like at this time the severe threat on Monday will be greatest in the Afternoon through late evening into the early overnight if anything comes from it. Possibility of strong storms Monday into Tuesday as well. At the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger thunderstorms. This is not a widespread threat. Isolated severe only. Not everyone will experience serve weather.

Wind shear will be adequate to support rotation with some of the stronger storms as they move from West to East through the area Monday through Monday night and possibly Tuesday morning. While the threat for Tornadoes is low, the threat is there. Heavy rain could also be a problem causing Flash Flooding for some due to abundant moisture being pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico over the same areas.


Here's the current Storm outlook issued 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012. This will likely shift north in updates issued later as the Low and adjacent fronts continue pushing East and North.

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Statement from Storm Prediction Center 2:00 PM EDT Sunday September 30 2012

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ERN AL AND WRN GA MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45 KT. IN ADDITION...LCL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 500 METERS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE AL AND NW GA INTO SE TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I'll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Georgia Drought Update: Long Term Drought Continues - September 21 2012

Severe to Exceptional Drought conditions continue for most of Central and areas of North Georgia. Little relief is expected in the coming month or so but there is hope. At this time a weak El Nino is beginning to show itself and is expected to persist through the remainder of the year. During an El Nino in the fall and winter months, precipitation generally increases along the gulf and the southeast. Combined with cooler temperatures and lower sun angle areas can expect to benefit from the increase in moisture due to less evaporation.

While we wait on El Nino to set up and bring much needed moisture, drought continues to worsen in areas of Georgia that have seen little to below normal rainfall. In the last 14 days some areas of Georgia saw much need rain generally in the 1 to 2 inch range, while areas of North Georgia saw 3 to 5 inches. While this was welcomed it did little in the way of drought relief where is was most needed.

As of September 20 2012 departure from normal rainfall or deficit for select areas.

Atlanta down 12.86 inches
Athens down 6.17 inches
Columbus down 8.56 inches
Macon down 10.29 inches

Georgia lakes haven't fared much better

Allatoona down 6.23 Feet
Carters down 2.50 feet
Hartwell down 11.95 feet
Lanier down 9.52 feet
Thurmond down 12.08 feet
West Point down 8.34 feet

The outlook for October shows hints at above normal temperatures and equal chances of above of normal rainfall. The extended outlook [90days] hints at above normal temperatures heading into winter and Above normal rainfall due to the expected El Nino pattern [mentioned above].

Current drought conditions for Georgia and the Southeast US as of September 18 2012

Here's a look at rainfall across Georgia and the Southeast form the last 30 days

Here's how much rain is needed to End drought in 3 months [left] and see relif [right]

Here are current drought conditions across the US

How much rain is needed across the US

Drought outlook September through December 2012

There is still a chance the southeast 'could' see a tropical system bring needed rains albeit getting slimmer as the season progresses and El Nino sets up. Hurricane season ends November 30. Looking more like drought will continue into 2013 and from there we'll just have to watch.