Georgia Drought Update - Huge Improvement - February 28 2013 #gawx

Heavy rains during February some which were record breaking, have wiped out 'extreme drought conditions' in Georgia and the Southeast. However, Pockets of 'Severe drought' remain in areas of Central and East Georgia extending into Northeast Florida. So even though the southeast had some good rain, drought still persists, and it won't take long if dry conditions move in for drought conditions to increase once again throughout the area.

Some areas of Georgia saw record breaking rainfall amounts. One such area was Columbus Georgia where they saw 13.51 inches of precipitation in February, breaking the record of 9.41 inches for the same period. The 'all time monthly precipitation record' of 13.62 inches in December of 2009 still stands.

Here at my location, my February rainfall total is 13.29 inches. Here are some other Precipitation Totals for February across Georgia

Albany   -   8.77 inches
Athens   -   7.66 inches
Atlanta  -   9.02 inches
Augusta  -   9.40 inches
Columbus -  13.51 inches
Macon    -  13.75 inches
Savannah -   9.75 inches
Valdosta -   5.39 inches

Georgia / Southeast drought January 1 thru February 26 2013




February Rainfall thru Feb. 26 2013

Hurricane #Sandy Landfall 5:00 to 7:00 PM EDT | Update 2:00 PM EDT 10/29/12

At 940mb, Sandy is now the strongest hurricane recorded north of North Carolina!

Time of the center making landfall likely 5:00 to 7:00 PM EDT.
Per a tweet at 1:01 PM EDT Today from Dr. Greg Forbes @DrGregForbes from the weather Channel: "Sandy is speeding up, moving northwest at 25-30 mph. It could make landfall south NJ around 5PM. Hurricane winds approaching NJ, south NY."
*Note: At the source link, timestamp is wrong. source: https://twitter.com/DrGregForbes/status/262962284517801984

Winds continue to increase with Sandy. Estimated wind speed at landfall or before the center moves inland are near 100 mph. Wind gusts of 50-60+ mph are being reported along the NJ, NY, MA coasts and gusting to 66 mph at JFK Airport in NYC. Numerous power outages are coming in from various news sources with reports of 150,000 without power. This will continue and worsen as Sandy nears landfall south of Atlantic City.

Currently - Winds: 90 mph | Pressure 940 mb | Location: 38.3N 73.1W (175 miles South-southeast of New York City New York and 110 miles Southeast of Atlantic City New Jersey) | Moving Northwest at 28 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out 485 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. A tropical Storm 'Warning' is in effect for North of surf City to Duck North Carolina and Pamlico / Albemarle sounds. Please Check previous posts Below for more information on expected impacts.

Update 3 - Winter precipitation Alabama / Georgia - Monday / Tuesday 2/13-2/14/2012

Update #3 FINAL - 6:15 AM 2/14/2012

Not to gloat but .. I was correct. Sleet did make it to the local area.

Here at the homestead Moderate Sleet began 11:39 PM EST 2/13 – 12AM EST 2/14 Sleet mixed with rain – 3:37 AM EST 2/14 Heavy Sleet mixed with rain – 3:50 AM EST 2/14 Rain.

There where many reports from Alabama and Georgia. Here are some of the areas around the local area, others can be viewed below in earlier reports below.

Salem Al
LaGrange Ga
Auburn Al
Manchester Ga
Near Exit 64 off I-85 in Alabama
Cataula Ga
Columbus GA - water works on River Rd
Ladonia / Whiterock Al
Cataula Ga - HWY 315 near Mulberry creek elementary school
Pine Mountain Valley GA
Phenix City Al
Waverly Hall GA

There was no accumulation.

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Update #2 - 10:00 PM 2/13/2012

Sleet and rain/sleet mix being reported across many areas of Alabama. Latest reports via Twitter: Heavy Sleet in Gadsen and Green Hill also reports from Anniston, Pratville, Millbrook, McCallan, Jacksonville, Bagley, Fyffe, Talladega, Ashville and Pelham as well as other areas. Temps are falling slowly and dew points are rising. Currently here at the homestead 37.7°F @ 10:00 PM EST ... Here's a radar shot, the yellow areas are likely Sleet - rain/ sleet mix.

Radar as of 9:53 PM EST 02/13/2012. Heavier pockets of sleet yellow and reds.

Via NWS Birmingham Al

The area continues to head east. See below for earlier info. and predictions.

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Update #1 - 9:15 AM 2/13/2012

Updated to add a couple profile soundings for Columbus Georgia.
Not much change at this time from forecasting offices.

This is the GFS3 Skew-t showing IP [ Ice Pellets / Sleet ] At 12:00 AM EST Tuesday morning for Columbus.

This is the GFS3 Skew-t showing ZR [ Freezing Rain ] At 3:00 AM EST Tuesday morning for Columbus.

The first sounding above is plausible showing Ice Pellets / Sleet. The second one is less so showing the Freezing Rain as surface temperatures are above freezing, so this may be some Sleet mixed with rain. The time frame for this would be from 12:00 AM EST to 3:00 AM EST Tuesday morning, at this time.

I'm still thinking areas to the north of Columbus will see the best chance of seeing any winter precipitation. Farther north = better chances. I do not expect any of this to accumulate locally.

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Original Post at 1:07 AM 2/13/2012

This will be an overnight event for the local area. Monday night thru Tuesday morning.

Just some thoughts about what may happen.

Here are the most recent graphics from the National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia and the National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama, issued Sunday afternoon.

My thinking on this .... After going over current data as of 12:20 AM 2/13/2012, I think the local area will see some sleet. I think at times such as the onset of the event, some of this may be heavy and not mixed with rain. I do not expected any accumulation on roads or even grassy areas. There may be some accumulation on cars and other surfaces for a short period. I do not expect any of this to cause any problems.

I think the farther north you go, the best chances of accumulation on grass and elevated surfaces. The northern most counties in my coverage area, Troup and Meriwether counties will see the best chance of Snow. While this will become mixed with rain and sleet, I am expecting mostly snow at the beginning of the event. South of there, moderate sleet at the beginning then mixing with rain.

This is my coverage area ..

There are a few if's for this event.... If the rate of sleet or snow is high, it may overcome surface temperatures and allow some accumulation. This would occur in the northern most counties. If the warm air does not enter the picture until late in the event, there may be more accumulation possible then what is currently forecast, which at this time is 0% in the local area south of Troup and Meriwether counties in Georgia and farther north in Alabama.

Towards the end, it will be all rain in the local area.

Here's a look at liquid amounts for the event. The local area is within the 0.50 to 0.75 inch zone.

P.S.- I am not a professional meteorologist ;)

Update 1 - Turning Colder, Chance of ....

Update 10:09 AM 12/31/2011 - The cold will be here, but it doesn't look like the moisture will. No snow for the area at this time on this run.

+++++++

Original post 12/29/2011

Next week it will turn colder, some of the coldest temps we have seen yet this winter season in our local area in Georgia and Alabama, and the deep south in general for that matter. For the past week I, as well as others including our local meteorologist have been watching the computer models. The models have been swinging as they do, still not yet able to determine exactly what the weather the coming week will bring. Over the past day or so, the models are coming into better agreement with each other as to the placement and amount of cold air that will infiltrate the deep south.

Just as we have seen in the recent past with frontal passages, shortwaves in varying strength have followed them bringing unsettled weather to the area. While this still appears to be the case in the short term during the coming pattern change, the quantity of shortwaves will lesson. One such SW will be moving through the area next week, mid week. The exact time is still in question as earlier models runs had one pushing through the weekend of January 7-8 2012, and now as early as the 5th or 6th of the coming week. A couple of the latest models runs even show a low pressure / closed low forming. On one hand it shows a weak low forming in the gulf of Mexico, and on the other a strong closed low forming off the east coast. I might add that model runs early on showed this happening, they backed off, and now it's back, a good sign.

So what does this all mean for us?

It means there is the possibility as of this posting for the local area to some wintery precipitation in the coming week. How much, what type and to what extent is still up in the air. Right now it looks like a dusting to an inch if it is snow. It may be just plain ol rain. It may not happen at all. There is a slightly better chance of it happening than not at this time. Why do I say that ?? Mainly because of what I read earlier from the National Weather Service in their area forecast diccussion. One from the NWS in Peachtree City, GA., and the other from the NWS in Tallahassee, Fl..

AFD from NWS Peachtree City, GA. - ISSUED 620 AM EST THU DEC 29 2011: THE GFS BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. WILL THEREFORE ADD CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY TO THE CWA AND KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY.

AFD from NWS Tallahassee, Fl. - 140 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2011: As the trough lifts away, temps will moderate somewhat on Wednesday. However, another potent short wave is progged to dive southeastward across the area on Thursday. We will show showers with this feature for now. However, it is not out of the question that we will be dealing with non-liquid precipitation with this system. Stay tuned.

This event is still a week out and will likely change from model run to run. I'll know more in a few days, and will post an update on Monday or Tuesday of the coming week.